EPTOn March 27 2012 03:54 Acrofales wrote:
In that case you should be finding scum and building a case, not sheepling onto Risen. This is beyond stupid.
Show nested quote +
On March 27 2012 03:34 Mattchew wrote:
"However you seem to be throwing away ALL other evidence." I am. If asked before all this shit, I would have said that I have a town read on both of you. After this shit, I still see no case against either of you that holds any weight, however it does appear to me as if 1 of you is scum and 1 of you is town. That is why my logic has no outside factors involved with the decision making process.
On March 27 2012 03:30 Acrofales wrote:
Yeah, I overreacted. Overall that seems to be the only part of day 1 where any useful information was gathered at all, with people like MrZentor, Zealos and SLJ chipping in to have their say.
Another difference is that Gumshoe is currently my second-most-favourite lynch after Risen. It'd be great to get more information for the day 3 lynch.
Just to be clear, you're still not off the hook and I find your reasoning today exceedingly suspicious. I just think there are better targets to focus on for the moment.
Even so, it can't really hurt to show how your reasoning is just really suspicious. At the very least it'll further the discussion and allow me to decide whether you're actually scum or not. Your reasoning is pretty much explained here:
You seem to have the four cases pretty clear. However you seem to be throwing away ALL other evidence. I haven't seen anybody make a case against me lately. The only evidence being taken into account seems to be Risen's DT check. Apparently, for you, a DT claim is automatically enough reason to disregard all other posts by said person, OR the one he claims on, and say that he should not be lynched because he DT claimed. Wow, if I ever play a mobster I will keep that in mind!
Now lets look at the rest of the evidence:
Risen
Risen has been playing exceedingly erratically. I initially had a town read on him (as you can see if you go through my posts), although I found his analysis exceedingly weak (once again, in my posts). He then suddenly panicked at WBG's supposed kill power + Show Spoiler [pointless WBG speculation] +.
Given his insistance that I was scum from almost the start of the game, this caused me to post the pages of refutals of his analysis, as I thought he had been crumbing vigilante, not DT. At this point I still believed him, although I was both angry enough and thought he was playing terribly enough that I should vote for him on basic principle (also in my night posts).
The next morning he roleclaimed DT in an exceedingly vague and dumb manner. He claimed DT without stating his actual role name, he never crumbed DT OR his rolename beforehand and he completely ignored any possibility of me being framed or a miller and continued throughout the morning to ignore any such possibilities.
In addition to his ballsup of a DT claim, his only somewhat useful contribution to this game has been to spam a full page of really bad analysis.
Acro
I am awesome and a contributing townie. Someone should make a proper case against me if they have one that is not based on all this WIFOM around Risen's DT check.
Now, given the evidence, we have to consider PROBABILITIES of each of the four cases and then things change drastically. We can lynch me, confirmed townie, based on a somewhat decent plot by a scumster (or, I'll grant him the inkling of doubt I don't really have: an incredibly shitty DT). Or we can lynch a mobster (with a tiny tiny chance that he is actually an incredibly shitty DT).
And that is why I think your reasoning is suspect. If there was no prior knowledge then you would be right, but you are reasoning as if the DT check is the only information you have.
To be completely honest, I have no clue what way you lean at the moment. Day 1 I could've sworn you were scum. Night 1 you seemed to be playing townie and Day 2 you're back to looking scummy. I can't read you at the moment, but given that I have two reads I am far more confident in I don't mind too much. If both Risen and Gumshoe flip red, then I am quite sure you are too.
On March 27 2012 02:27 Mattchew wrote:
Remember when i did this to you and you called me scum? atleast mine was early day 1
On March 27 2012 01:36 Acrofales wrote:
GUMSHOE: WHERE ARE YOU? I THINK YOU'RE SCUM. What do you think about that?
GUMSHOE: WHERE ARE YOU? I THINK YOU'RE SCUM. What do you think about that?
Remember when i did this to you and you called me scum? atleast mine was early day 1
Yeah, I overreacted. Overall that seems to be the only part of day 1 where any useful information was gathered at all, with people like MrZentor, Zealos and SLJ chipping in to have their say.
Another difference is that Gumshoe is currently my second-most-favourite lynch after Risen. It'd be great to get more information for the day 3 lynch.
Just to be clear, you're still not off the hook and I find your reasoning today exceedingly suspicious. I just think there are better targets to focus on for the moment.
Even so, it can't really hurt to show how your reasoning is just really suspicious. At the very least it'll further the discussion and allow me to decide whether you're actually scum or not. Your reasoning is pretty much explained here:
On March 26 2012 04:22 Mattchew wrote:
can someone tell me why we would want to take a risk of lynching the guy who claims dt first?
for the most part it sounds like people are saying something along the lines of "i wouldn't do that as DT" or "he must be an idiot to do that as DT" or "This way of playing DT doesn't help town"
2 of these say nothing about alignment. playing stupid or different from how you would play it dont mean scum. and there are a ton of examples of townies playing in a not pro-town manner.
If we flip acro first and he flips scum or miller, we save the life of a townie and save a lynch.
if we flip acro first and he flips town, we get to see what happens to risen at night, and then lynch him.
if we flip risen first and he flips scum, we don't learn anything about acro BUT HURRAY WE LYNCH SCUM
if we flip risen first and hes town DT, we waste a lynch on a confirmable townie, and acro gets lynched the next day
I feel it is a lot safer to lynch acro first
can someone tell me why we would want to take a risk of lynching the guy who claims dt first?
for the most part it sounds like people are saying something along the lines of "i wouldn't do that as DT" or "he must be an idiot to do that as DT" or "This way of playing DT doesn't help town"
2 of these say nothing about alignment. playing stupid or different from how you would play it dont mean scum. and there are a ton of examples of townies playing in a not pro-town manner.
If we flip acro first and he flips scum or miller, we save the life of a townie and save a lynch.
if we flip acro first and he flips town, we get to see what happens to risen at night, and then lynch him.
if we flip risen first and he flips scum, we don't learn anything about acro BUT HURRAY WE LYNCH SCUM
if we flip risen first and hes town DT, we waste a lynch on a confirmable townie, and acro gets lynched the next day
I feel it is a lot safer to lynch acro first
You seem to have the four cases pretty clear. However you seem to be throwing away ALL other evidence. I haven't seen anybody make a case against me lately. The only evidence being taken into account seems to be Risen's DT check. Apparently, for you, a DT claim is automatically enough reason to disregard all other posts by said person, OR the one he claims on, and say that he should not be lynched because he DT claimed. Wow, if I ever play a mobster I will keep that in mind!
Now lets look at the rest of the evidence:
Risen
Risen has been playing exceedingly erratically. I initially had a town read on him (as you can see if you go through my posts), although I found his analysis exceedingly weak (once again, in my posts). He then suddenly panicked at WBG's supposed kill power + Show Spoiler [pointless WBG speculation] +
Littlefinger does not like to get his own hands dirty and a kill power does not fit the lore at all.
Given his insistance that I was scum from almost the start of the game, this caused me to post the pages of refutals of his analysis, as I thought he had been crumbing vigilante, not DT. At this point I still believed him, although I was both angry enough and thought he was playing terribly enough that I should vote for him on basic principle (also in my night posts).
The next morning he roleclaimed DT in an exceedingly vague and dumb manner. He claimed DT without stating his actual role name, he never crumbed DT OR his rolename beforehand and he completely ignored any possibility of me being framed or a miller and continued throughout the morning to ignore any such possibilities.
In addition to his ballsup of a DT claim, his only somewhat useful contribution to this game has been to spam a full page of really bad analysis.
Acro
I am awesome and a contributing townie. Someone should make a proper case against me if they have one that is not based on all this WIFOM around Risen's DT check.
Now, given the evidence, we have to consider PROBABILITIES of each of the four cases and then things change drastically. We can lynch me, confirmed townie, based on a somewhat decent plot by a scumster (or, I'll grant him the inkling of doubt I don't really have: an incredibly shitty DT). Or we can lynch a mobster (with a tiny tiny chance that he is actually an incredibly shitty DT).
And that is why I think your reasoning is suspect. If there was no prior knowledge then you would be right, but you are reasoning as if the DT check is the only information you have.
To be completely honest, I have no clue what way you lean at the moment. Day 1 I could've sworn you were scum. Night 1 you seemed to be playing townie and Day 2 you're back to looking scummy. I can't read you at the moment, but given that I have two reads I am far more confident in I don't mind too much. If both Risen and Gumshoe flip red, then I am quite sure you are too.
"However you seem to be throwing away ALL other evidence." I am. If asked before all this shit, I would have said that I have a town read on both of you. After this shit, I still see no case against either of you that holds any weight, however it does appear to me as if 1 of you is scum and 1 of you is town. That is why my logic has no outside factors involved with the decision making process.
In that case you should be finding scum and building a case, not sheepling onto Risen. This is beyond stupid.
Why are you worried about it? If you think Risen is scum you should have no problem with people voting for him for the wrong reasons. The ends justify the means
