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The fact that Risen has to jump to unqualified assumptions about everything in order for his story to make the least bit of sense in his own head should be enough for any reasonable person to determine that he's scum.
In fact, his own logic is self contradictory. He claims that I am all-knowing and that I somehow knew he was a DT. At the same time he claims he knows that it would be in my best interest to keep town power and mafia power roughly equal. (I do believe I said it myself, though why would Risen take me seriously?)
By that logic, I insist that it means I have a vested interest in finding scum because town is already down by 4 players. Thus, it makes it FAR more likely that Risen is scum, not town (a fact Risen accidentally supported himself).
Yet, Risen resorts to the untenable argument that he must be town because I want town/mafia power to be equal. If I knew risen were town I wouldn't be pushing him for lynch at this point, by that logic. I'd much rather kill scum.
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[QUOTE]On March 24 2012 07:25 Risen wrote:
[QUOTE]On March 24 2012 07:21 Acrofales wrote:
[QUOTE]On March 24 2012 07:15 GreYMisT wrote:
[QUOTE]On March 24 2012 07:10 Acrofales wrote:
I'm almost positive Acro is scum, and Mattchew needs to be checked tonight. VOTE ACROFALES[/QUOTE]
Oh, and here's a gem, if you were DT and were sure about Acro being scum, why didn't you check Mattchew?
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That quote didnt work at all o.O I wondered what I did, I'll repost 1 sec
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On March 26 2012 06:13 wherebugsgo wrote:
The fact that Risen has to jump to unqualified assumptions about everything in order for his story to make the least bit of sense in his own head should be enough for any reasonable person to determine that he's scum.
In fact, his own logic is self contradictory. He claims that I am all-knowing and that I somehow knew he was a DT. At the same time he claims he knows that it would be in my best interest to keep town power and mafia power roughly equal. (I do believe I said it myself, though why would Risen take me seriously?)
By that logic, I insist that it means I have a vested interest in finding scum because town is already down by 4 players. Thus, it makes it FAR more likely that Risen is scum, not town (a fact Risen accidentally supported himself).
Yet, Risen resorts to the untenable argument that he must be town because I want town/mafia power to be equal. If I knew risen were town I wouldn't be pushing him for lynch at this point, by that logic. I'd much rather kill scum.
Not true at all. 8-3 at the start of Day 4 is perfect for you.
I still think everything I've said is perfectly logical, there won't be any swaying me from that. I fucked up by responding to your claim of being able to shoot me, but now that we're in this shitty position we might as well make the best of it. Lynch me tonight or tomorrow and acro tonight or tomorrow. I'm done discussing this because town needs to now focus on who to lynch Day 3 (should I not be lynched, and when acro flips red, since a town acro is auto-lynch me day 3) or Day 4 if I'm lynched first, since acro is the auto-lynch Day 3.
I'm going to reread through Greymist, Mattchew, Zealos filters soon. Still think a Day 3/4 lynch of Lyter is perfectly acceptable.
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On March 26 2012 05:59 Risen wrote:
EBWOP: I think it's pretty clear, but scum love stuff like this so I'll reiterate what I mean by "We lynch acro and you get guaranteed scum on day 3." No that isn't a scum slip, I'm presenting to town what they do should acro flip town. It won't happen, but you don't know that, so I present it as a possibility.
Like here:
Risen is saying that if Acro is town, he is scum...
What town DT would ever say something like that? It completely ignores the possibility of both of them being town. Which is in itself retarded. Lynching Acro tells us nothing about Risen's alignment.
Of course, if Risen flips scum it's less likely Acro is scum. It doesn't make it impossible, just less likely.
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On March 24 2012 07:25 Risen wrote:Show nested quote +On March 24 2012 07:21 Acrofales wrote:On March 24 2012 07:15 GreYMisT wrote:On March 24 2012 07:10 Acrofales wrote:
Lol. Are we seriously putting our lynch in the hands of either mafia or littlefinger?! This is really retarded. However, I have no idea where to put my vote. My earlier reads were Mattchew, Gumshoe and Zealos. Nobody else seems to want to vote for them, although for the life of me I don't know why not.
I guess I could add Evantrees to my lynch targets, if we're going to policy lynch a hardcore lurker. Another option is to lynch Nicolas. Chaoser said he'll probably be modkilled anyway?
Anything seems better than leaving it so that a mobster switches before the end with some bullshit excuse and we mislynch a townie due to derp. Or WBG jumps and we can't even retaliate by vig shotting him. You "Guess you could add Evantrees to your lynch targets?" What the crap? This entire post is just asking other people to make decisions for you. Don't read shit into it that's not there. I don't want to policy-lynch, I want to lynch Mattchew, but that is clearly not going to happen. Rather than wasting my vote there and having whoever the fuck wants switch at the last second to mislynch a useful townie, I'd rather policy-lynch a lurker or someone who's going to get modkilled. I chose the modkilled. Now stop confusing shit more than it is already and consolidate your own vote somewhere useful, or make a better case against Oberyn, because so far it has been: he's useless. He is a lot LESS useless than Evantrees or Nicolas, so if that's your criteria, your vote's in the wrong place. I'm almost positive Acro is scum, and Mattchew needs to be checked tonight. VOTE ACROFALES
On March 23 2012 23:08 Risen wrote:Show nested quote +On March 23 2012 21:11 Mattchew wrote:
lol coming from littlefinger i dont suspect it will hold much weight Unfortunately it does not, we don't know his sanity. If someone were to check you tonight and confirm then maybe it would.
There we go, so why no Mattchew check?
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On March 26 2012 06:20 Zealos wrote:Show nested quote +On March 24 2012 07:25 Risen wrote:On March 24 2012 07:21 Acrofales wrote:On March 24 2012 07:15 GreYMisT wrote:On March 24 2012 07:10 Acrofales wrote:
Lol. Are we seriously putting our lynch in the hands of either mafia or littlefinger?! This is really retarded. However, I have no idea where to put my vote. My earlier reads were Mattchew, Gumshoe and Zealos. Nobody else seems to want to vote for them, although for the life of me I don't know why not.
I guess I could add Evantrees to my lynch targets, if we're going to policy lynch a hardcore lurker. Another option is to lynch Nicolas. Chaoser said he'll probably be modkilled anyway?
Anything seems better than leaving it so that a mobster switches before the end with some bullshit excuse and we mislynch a townie due to derp. Or WBG jumps and we can't even retaliate by vig shotting him. You "Guess you could add Evantrees to your lynch targets?" What the crap? This entire post is just asking other people to make decisions for you. Don't read shit into it that's not there. I don't want to policy-lynch, I want to lynch Mattchew, but that is clearly not going to happen. Rather than wasting my vote there and having whoever the fuck wants switch at the last second to mislynch a useful townie, I'd rather policy-lynch a lurker or someone who's going to get modkilled. I chose the modkilled. Now stop confusing shit more than it is already and consolidate your own vote somewhere useful, or make a better case against Oberyn, because so far it has been: he's useless. He is a lot LESS useless than Evantrees or Nicolas, so if that's your criteria, your vote's in the wrong place. I'm almost positive Acro is scum, and Mattchew needs to be checked tonight. VOTE ACROFALES Show nested quote +On March 23 2012 23:08 Risen wrote:On March 23 2012 21:11 Mattchew wrote:
lol coming from littlefinger i dont suspect it will hold much weight Unfortunately it does not, we don't know his sanity. If someone were to check you tonight and confirm then maybe it would. There we go, so why no Mattchew check?
Was hoping for a rolechecker to look at him. Almost positive isn't the same as positive.
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On a game with no rolecheckers? Your defense is getting really weak.
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On March 26 2012 06:29 Zealos wrote:
On a game with no rolecheckers? Your defense is getting really weak.
Whoops. Had no idea there wasn't a rolechecker, didn't remember all the roles and didn't bother doublechecking. Oh well. I don't really need a defense Zealos. I'm going to be lynched tonight and acro is going to be lynched tomorrow. Move on.
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I'm done for a while. Can't keep arguing in circles. I think my logic is clear, you don't. It's over.
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*Facepalm* I really hope for your sake that you are mafia, because if you flip DT then you are the scummiest town I've ever seen. And the reason I made the argument is to be sure of the lynch today.
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On March 26 2012 06:34 Risen wrote:
I'm done for a while. Can't keep arguing in circles. I think my logic is clear, you don't. It's over.
herp derp I wanted a rolechecker to check Mattchew herp derp without even checking that there was a rolechecker herp derp my logic makes sense no matter what you say herp derp despite the fact that you just showed it's complete shit herp derp herp
Sounds more like, "before I had the foresight to plan a DT claim I tried directing DTs into Mattchew and now I'm grasping at straws trying to make the statement make sense in retrospect"
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On March 26 2012 06:39 wherebugsgo wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2012 06:34 Risen wrote:
I'm done for a while. Can't keep arguing in circles. I think my logic is clear, you don't. It's over. Sounds more like, "before I had the foresight to plan a DT claim I tried directing DTs into Mattchew and now I'm grasping at straws trying to make the statement make sense in retrospect"
Exactly my argument.
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On March 26 2012 06:26 Risen wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2012 06:20 Zealos wrote:On March 24 2012 07:25 Risen wrote:On March 24 2012 07:21 Acrofales wrote:On March 24 2012 07:15 GreYMisT wrote:On March 24 2012 07:10 Acrofales wrote:
Lol. Are we seriously putting our lynch in the hands of either mafia or littlefinger?! This is really retarded. However, I have no idea where to put my vote. My earlier reads were Mattchew, Gumshoe and Zealos. Nobody else seems to want to vote for them, although for the life of me I don't know why not.
I guess I could add Evantrees to my lynch targets, if we're going to policy lynch a hardcore lurker. Another option is to lynch Nicolas. Chaoser said he'll probably be modkilled anyway?
Anything seems better than leaving it so that a mobster switches before the end with some bullshit excuse and we mislynch a townie due to derp. Or WBG jumps and we can't even retaliate by vig shotting him. You "Guess you could add Evantrees to your lynch targets?" What the crap? This entire post is just asking other people to make decisions for you. Don't read shit into it that's not there. I don't want to policy-lynch, I want to lynch Mattchew, but that is clearly not going to happen. Rather than wasting my vote there and having whoever the fuck wants switch at the last second to mislynch a useful townie, I'd rather policy-lynch a lurker or someone who's going to get modkilled. I chose the modkilled. Now stop confusing shit more than it is already and consolidate your own vote somewhere useful, or make a better case against Oberyn, because so far it has been: he's useless. He is a lot LESS useless than Evantrees or Nicolas, so if that's your criteria, your vote's in the wrong place. I'm almost positive Acro is scum, and Mattchew needs to be checked tonight. VOTE ACROFALES On March 23 2012 23:08 Risen wrote:On March 23 2012 21:11 Mattchew wrote:
lol coming from littlefinger i dont suspect it will hold much weight Unfortunately it does not, we don't know his sanity. If someone were to check you tonight and confirm then maybe it would. There we go, so why no Mattchew check? Was hoping for a rolechecker to look at him. Almost positive isn't the same as positive.
This isn't a good excuse even IF rolechecker WAS a role. Why would you take a risk and depend on someone else to do your job? Why not do it yourself? That doesn't even make any sense. That's like saying, I want to check this guy, but oh well, I won't. I'll check this other guy that I already am sure is mafia and hope that 1) someone else checks the guy I want to know about and 2) they then out themselves somehow to give us that information. WTF?
##vote: risen
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First off, SamuelLJackson was clearly roleblocked or evantrees survived a hit. A player doesn't claim at the deadline that he is shooting and then procede to not shoot. I'm inclined to believe that wherebugsgo is lying about his roleblock, as two roleblockers seems unlikely. If wherebugsgo truly was roleblocked and was interested in helping town, he would use this knowledge that SamuelLJackson's hit went through to lynch evantrees.
On March 26 2012 05:00 MrZentor wrote:
My theory is that Evantrees is a paranoid gun owner. I don't think any medic would have healed him, and SLJ was definitely not lying about killing him. Mafia have 2 kills, right? They could have shot DoYouHas twice, or they could have shot him once and SLJ once. They could have had another victim that didn't die. At any rate, it's possible(and I think probable) that mafia didn't kill SLJ.
Are you trying to come up with an explanation to show that you don't have knowledge of the mafia night actions or something? I don't see how this is the conclusion a town player comes to.
chaoser 's post on the possible scenarios was incredibly useless. I don't care about hypotheticals, I want his opinion about which scenario he believes to be true.
My gut says that a scum player doesn't offer himself up in a 1:1 trade.
Worst case scenario: He dies today.
Best case scenario: He dies tomorrow.
At the time of the claim, he wasn't in a position that would force him to claim to survive a lynch.
What concerns me is that he doesn't offer up a name claim. Could you address your reasoning Risen?
useless bugs role speculation
+ Show Spoiler +Perhaps at the beginning of every cycle he must submit a name and has to get that player lynched? With him winning after leading 3 or so lynches?
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There is nothing to suggest evantrees is scum because there very well could be two roleblockers, evantrees could be a veteran, evantrees could have been protected or jailed, and evantrees could be PGO. Since the OP states that roles can be on either side, it doesn't make a difference what evantrees's alignment is; we have no idea why he survived.
Just because SLJ wanted to shoot evantrees doesn't make him a good lynch. It might be a good idea to lynch him if Risen is somehow town, but Risen is the best choice today because there is clear analysis that supports him being scum.
Also, timing of the claim IS relevant. Scum generally claim earlier in the day than townies would, often in positions where normally townies would not feel as threatened. Don't believe me? Look at chaoser's DT claim from XLIV, or Palmar's cop claim from Some Mafia Game, or my jailkeeper claim from Mini X. In all of these situations mafia claim in a spot where it will shift potential lynch attention onto the target of their choice. From a mafia perspective it's all about buying time, and the longer town discussion is held up on false ideas and leads, the easier it is for the remaining mafia to hide.
If you've noticed, this claim has destroyed all discussion of any suspects outside of Risen and potentially Acro. If Risen flips scum we still have to find 3 more scum, and we have few leads from today. That's a win for scum if they thought Risen was going to die anyway.
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On March 26 2012 08:10 wherebugsgo wrote:
There is nothing to suggest evantrees is scum because there very well could be two roleblockers, evantrees could be a veteran, evantrees could have been protected or jailed, and evantrees could be PGO. Since the OP states that roles can be on either side, it doesn't make a difference what evantrees's alignment is; we have no idea why he survived.
I assumed players are informed if they take a hit, but perhaps this isn't a safe assumption to make. If that is the case, then evantrees would have claimed, meaning the only reasonable possibilities would be a scum evantrees, two roleblockers, or a lying wherebugsgo.
On March 26 2012 08:10 wherebugsgo wrote:
Also, timing of the claim IS relevant. Scum generally claim earlier in the day than townies would, often in positions where normally townies would not feel as threatened. Don't believe me? Look at chaoser's DT claim from XLIV, or Palmar's cop claim from Some Mafia Game, or my jailkeeper claim from Mini X. In all of these situations mafia claim in a spot where it will shift potential lynch attention onto the target of their choice. From a mafia perspective it's all about buying time, and the longer town discussion is held up on false ideas and leads, the easier it is for the remaining mafia to hide.
If you've noticed, this claim has destroyed all discussion of any suspects outside of Risen and potentially Acro. If Risen flips scum we still have to find 3 more scum, and we have few leads from today. That's a win for scum if they thought Risen was going to die anyway.
I disagree. A scum claim is a sign of desperation or survival. They do not want the additional attention, unless it means that its going to further their agenda. Do you think a 1 for 1 trade on day two furthers their agenda?
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Do you think a 1 for 1 trade on day two furthers their agenda?
The thing is, we don't know WHAT their plan/intent/agenda is. We don't KNOW if it's a 1 for 1 trade or not. Let's look at it this way. Here's an example of a planned out mafia move (things like this have occurred before)
Let's say risen is actually PGO mafia and acro is townie. risen has been getting pressured so he claims to be townie dt and he checked acro. we believe him, lynch acro, he flips town. It is now night and risen can say acro got framed. Now what? Do we believe him? or do we not? There's too much WIFOM and we will probably spend all of the night cycle debating it.
Let's say a vigi doesn't believe him and shoots at him. oops, he's PGO so the vigi dies instead. Then we send the next day doing nothing much besides lynching risen. Mafia have just controlled two day cycles and stopped scum hunting and gotten off potentially 6 kills for 1. That's a fucking great plan.
So all we can do is make the best play from OUR perspective. And if you look at risen's reaction to the pressure as the day has drawn on, it's gotten more and more scummy. His post about the how he figured another rolechecker would check mattchew and that's why he checked acro is ridiculous.
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On March 26 2012 08:34 Oberyn wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2012 08:10 wherebugsgo wrote:
There is nothing to suggest evantrees is scum because there very well could be two roleblockers, evantrees could be a veteran, evantrees could have been protected or jailed, and evantrees could be PGO. Since the OP states that roles can be on either side, it doesn't make a difference what evantrees's alignment is; we have no idea why he survived. I assumed players are informed if they take a hit, but perhaps this isn't a safe assumption to make. If that is the case, then evantrees would have claimed, meaning the only reasonable possibilities would be a scum evantrees, two roleblockers, or a lying wherebugsgo. Show nested quote +On March 26 2012 08:10 wherebugsgo wrote:
Also, timing of the claim IS relevant. Scum generally claim earlier in the day than townies would, often in positions where normally townies would not feel as threatened. Don't believe me? Look at chaoser's DT claim from XLIV, or Palmar's cop claim from Some Mafia Game, or my jailkeeper claim from Mini X. In all of these situations mafia claim in a spot where it will shift potential lynch attention onto the target of their choice. From a mafia perspective it's all about buying time, and the longer town discussion is held up on false ideas and leads, the easier it is for the remaining mafia to hide.
If you've noticed, this claim has destroyed all discussion of any suspects outside of Risen and potentially Acro. If Risen flips scum we still have to find 3 more scum, and we have few leads from today. That's a win for scum if they thought Risen was going to die anyway. I disagree. A scum claim is a sign of desperation or survival. They do not want the additional attention, unless it means that its going to further their agenda. Do you think a 1 for 1 trade on day two furthers their agenda?
You can disagree with my assessment all you want, but factual evidence will show you that you are wrong.
It's true that scum claims will come out of desperation, but so will town claims. Whether the claim is desperate or not has no bearing on the alignment of the claimer. However, almost universally scum claim in positions where they wouldn't have to in order to survive.
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Sorry waited a bit due to being uncertain if curu wasn't just late with a pm due to reason for tiny daypost. So pmed him asking then went to bed.
I was not hit last night, so mostly likely roleblocked SLJ. I really don't see SLJ being jailed, vigged and hit by scum.
Which would mean there could be two roleblockers, someone could have jailed bugs or bugs could be lieing.
@Sinensis respond or post at all?
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EPT
