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Newbie Mini Mafia IV - Page 12

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FourFace
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
701 Posts
February 26 2012 22:42 GMT
#221
+ Show Spoiler +
On February 27 2012 06:36 DoYouHas wrote:
Alright, I have seen a few things already that I don't like and I'm ready to throw some suspicion around.

FourFace

I don't like that his first post places unwarranted suspicion on the hydras. He could argue that he was just putting pressure on them, but this post
Show nested quote +
On February 26 2012 20:58 FourFace wrote:
Either way i + Show Spoiler +
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=315559#2

... to apply some pressure. But it's rather harmless

shows he doesn't quite understand how to put pressure on someone properly yet. I also don't like his lack of opinion on the soft deadline (thanks for the phrase slOosh). He says he is waiting for a thorough pro/con discussion. But a few of us had already provided pros, so in order to be ambivalent to the idea he must have had some cons in mind, but chooses not to post them.

Show nested quote +
On February 26 2012 18:13 FourFace wrote:
1. I'm a total scrub at this game btw, playing my debut game with you hansom TL-ers. I like the theme, reminds me of Dexter's Lab when the bacteria took over his family and he had to get into the dodgeball suit and kick their asses.

2. I support the idea of lynching lurkers over lynching suspicious individuals although if someone starts spamming protocol and tips about how you should play, with the excuse of this being a newbie game, it kinda bothers me and I might vote against such a person. I recommend keeping things concise (with the exception of day 1, because we have to get to know each other, so posting stuff about voyager and whatnot is welcome since it's an indication of ones personality and a hint to what you can expect to hear from that person in the future.. even though gumshoe makes the impression of being a couple arrows short of a quiver I think he sets the right tone to be followed but for this first day only)
Generally I'd like people to post pros and cons when they want to implement a policy, for others to get an idea about weather the motives behind it are benevolent, malicious or incompetent in nature.
3. No no lynch policy pro/con (that i can think of): We got 10 for town and 4 scum, starting probabilities for lynching are 10 to 4 for an innocent townie and 4 to 10 for scum. After each day 1 townie gets shot by mafia so if another townie gets lynched it's 8 to 4 chances to lynch a townie after second day's vote and 4 to 8 chances of lynching scum and so forth. If someone could make a tree diagram real quickly listing probabilities for lynching either town or scum up until day 6 or so and multiply the probabilities that would be appreciated (without doctor or vigilante interference first to get a general idea).
Worst case scenario is lynching town every time for 2 consecutive days which means game over after day[3]. Best case would be lynching scum every time in which case town wins at the dawn of the fifth day with 6 town alive and 0 scum. So is it advisable to lynch the first day without any concrete evidence, i have no idea. Some math boy-genius figure it out, but all in all (considering detective, medics and player behavior) my gut tells me that the success-rate of a lynch is a curve which drops the first couple of days and reaches it's max at the LYLO point. We can either plan our build for that lategame where success-rate is high or we can gamble and lynch right away. Either way we need to know the math to get an idea of the setup and we don't have much time to figure out what is more important.. gathering information or action.
If we don't lynch then tomorrow will likely be 9 town to 4 at which point the worst scenario would be game over after day[4] with 5 town to 4 scum at the LYLO point on day[3], which sounds way better for me (gaining a day), but again this is without vigilante/medic/strategy which I think would inflate towns chances even more.


1. Lowering our expectations of him. Not a big deal, it is a newbie game.

2. Wants to lynch lurkers over suspicious people... unless they are posting advice and protocol. That is what would make a person suspicious enough to FourFace that they need to be voted over a lurker. Seems a bit off to me. At best this statement is wishy-washy and means nothing. At worse it reveals FourFace to have a skewed point of view.

3. This whole section says 1 thing of value. In a worst case scenario, a no-lynch on day1 gives us 1 more day of play before game over. The rest is pointing out the obvious, needless speculation, and trying to get others to jump on board with discussion about the setup. I think that the majority of this first post, while big, says almost nothing. Very suspicious.

(I'm taking the spoilers out of this next one)
Show nested quote +
On February 26 2012 20:58 FourFace wrote:
Pro no lynch on first day:
If we get to Day[2] with 2 townies missing .. how much info do you get from that? We need successful lynches for info to spring, Janaan. We are scientists, remember? We need a statistic edge and we'll build on it with what info comes along.
Vote for who you think benefits the town the least but refrain from lynching on the first day. You can gather info from who gets shot and whether you get saved or not. Plus on Day[2] the DT made check, or possibly even gets roleblocked, or saved, or shot by friendly fire.
And also if we lynch today we have no DT support because he hasn't made his check yet. I wouldn't know what to make out of the lynch info even if against all odds it turns out to be scum, as it could be one of their plans to sacrifice one of them by bandwagoning on his lynch and playing the "i would have tried to stop the lynch if i was scum" card all game long.
Sort of like a 5 pool, sacrifice drones for early aggression.

Con no lynch on first day:
One of the methods mafia use to win is stall so we need decimate their numbers quickly, 40 percent chance is acceptable, and we get to sack those who aren't active enough for town to collaborate successfully. I doubt that someone who posts conclusively will be a candidate so it's either lurker or BS spammer, either way no big asset to town so why not start right away.

Either way i http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=315559#2
... to apply some pressure. But it's rather harmless



Pro - Not vote for who you think is scum, vote for who you think benefits the town the least.

Pro - FF seems to want to rely on blues to provide us with information. And speculation on who gets shot by scum tends to be WIFOM and useless. FF downplays the value of information gained by a lynch, up-plays the value of information gotten by a mafia hit. And goes back to blues for actually figuring the game out. This is a very wrong way of looking at the game.

Con - First off, it isn't a 40% chance, it is closer to a 29% chance. 4/14, not 4/10. Secondly, FF has wandered into random lynch territory instead of staying on pro/con for nolynch. I don't like it one bit.

Con - Just like in his pro-nolynch argument he is espousing voting for those who are least valuable to town, not scum. I italicized the statement in this section that I just hate and think betrays FF's attitude.

Show nested quote +
On February 27 2012 05:32 FourFace wrote:
I knew this was going to be fun. Had a LOL moment already; gumshoe says "Glad to have you on our side Alderaan ( : as for absolutes do you mind making decisions like that on a day to day basis?"
and Alderan is like: "What do you mean?"
Seriously wtf did you mean bro?

Anyway I am disapoint about Steveling not reading this thread from start to finish. If he would have realized what a hydra is (i didn't know either until i did read .. THE WHOLE .. thread from START 2 FINISH and my eyes are still functioning properly) (DO THIS NOW if you haven't already GOOGG we'll be waiting THANK YOU!)

Also certain circumstances made it so that I already have an idea of a case bait set up. The trap is up and running as we speak. At this point I can only say that there's an elephant in the room and whether people see it or not, mention it or not will give a mass check on all

@Janaan why JekyllAndHyde and not some other lurker? I don't know, lynch me


I asked you all to have a purpose in mind when you posted things. So what is the purpose of this post? From what I can see the purpose of this post is to foment conflict between gumshoe and Alderan, to undercut/place suspicion on Steveling, and to hint at a secret strategy. Also, wtf is with this statement, "I don't know, lynch me".

As to that secret strategy, I sure hope an integral part of it is letting us know that a trap is out there. Because if it isn't then all you have done is made people more afraid to post for fear of stepping into your trap. So if your trap doesn't depend on letting us know that it exists, you are acting very scummy.

##FOS: FourFace


OMG, There's a case against me.. read quickly ..think of something .. What the hell is FOS and why is the maficascum.net abbreviation thingy having poblems loading AARHHH!

Well looks like I'm going to have to come clean .. I'm crazy. Yes you heard me. I'm a total loon, a nutcase. Where others follow a coherent thought process I jump like a cangoroo in between dimensions. I don't have a split personality, I have 4. They all speak different languages but since this is in english we have to rely on the english guy translating everything we say into english and he often times fucks it up.

You want to lynch me .. fine. Put an end to my misery. I'm not even going to begin to take your arguments apart because quite frankly I read the the guidelines and told to myselves it would be fun to do exactly the opposite of what it says here.

Did you ever think of the possibility that once a bunch of guides are released that try to lecture you about how to spot suspicious behavior in a game you have to calculate for the fact that people are going to behave differently because of those guides. What's next, writing a guide about how to play in games where players have read the guides?

I'm going to go ahead and tell you this because I believe it's true: There is no mafia specific behavior on Day[1]. It's impossible to figure out what's going on. You have people like me who are crazy and get a fix out of the attention that cooky play brings, who knows what the others are here for.

As for my clandestine trap.. yeah let's just put it out there so everyone can avoid it .. ok let's go:

I was going to watch who votes for poor JekyllAndHyde hydra. After I randomly selected him out of the 3 or 4 inactives I started reading the whole thread and even did some background check on Cephiro but that's not essential at this point. The elephant is the fact that Cephiro says in his first post when he signed up:
On February 24 2012 15:40 Cephiro wrote:
/in (Hoping this will not start until the 29th)


The reason for him not posting anything has been hinted upon before the game started. Why would anyone who read the whole thread and realize there are 2 votes against him not mention this?

Anyway my trap is still up because you can't possibly know what I'm talking about aless we're on the same frequency of insanity which is highly unlikely. Yeah I messed up the percentage.. I was thinking in terms of scum to town ratio not scum to total amount of players. No I don't really care about that "soft deadline" whatever policy because I'm utterly incapable of understanding it, which to me means that it's insignificant.

So DOC, what's my diagnosic. Is it contagious, do I need to be quarantined? Pills, yes ook, ahmm no problem, I'll take em`, wouldn't be the first time I get these i figure I'll sleep for at least 16 hours and wake up with a limp tongue. So yeah .. have a nice day.
I don't know, lynch me!
ghost_403
Profile Joined September 2010
United States1825 Posts
February 26 2012 22:42 GMT
#222
@gumshoe My argument is more that I don't like the idea of "FOS" more than anything else. I think voting for someone that you think is scum is a lot more effective than saying "I think you're scum", but to each his own.
They say great science is built on the shoulders of giants. Not here. At Aperture, we do all our science from scratch, no hand holding. Step aside, REAL SCIENCE coming through.
ghost_403
Profile Joined September 2010
United States1825 Posts
February 26 2012 22:42 GMT
#223
@fourface FOS = Finger of Suspicion

Now to actually read your post.
They say great science is built on the shoulders of giants. Not here. At Aperture, we do all our science from scratch, no hand holding. Step aside, REAL SCIENCE coming through.
ghost_403
Profile Joined September 2010
United States1825 Posts
February 26 2012 22:44 GMT
#224
@fourface What is this I don't even.

##vote fourface
They say great science is built on the shoulders of giants. Not here. At Aperture, we do all our science from scratch, no hand holding. Step aside, REAL SCIENCE coming through.
Janaan
Profile Joined June 2011
United States381 Posts
February 26 2012 22:49 GMT
#225
So FourFace, pretty much all I got out of that post was that you don't like Mafia guides, and that you're readily admitting that you lied when you told me there wasn't a reason why you voted for JekyllAndHyde. That's not really a very good start to defending yourself in my opinion.
gumshoe
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Canada3602 Posts
February 26 2012 22:50 GMT
#226
On February 27 2012 07:42 ghost_403 wrote:
@gumshoe My argument is more that I don't like the idea of "FOS" more than anything else. I think voting for someone that you think is scum is a lot more effective than saying "I think you're scum", but to each his own.


If I had to be 100 percent honest I really only called you out so that I could fos you( I am a fan of irony) but this wasn't a question of preference, I asked you why you though that I and DYH should vote for him when you yourself were not yet willing to. You basically told four face that you suspected him by backing up DYH, which is the same thing as fos, so whats the issue of preference here? We did the same thing with the exception that I didn't tell you to vote for someone before I was willing to vote for them myself
.

gumshoe bullshitting at 120%~~Prplz
ghost_403
Profile Joined September 2010
United States1825 Posts
February 26 2012 22:50 GMT
#227
FourFace, I have no idea what game you're playing here. Your rants about insanity are baffling to me even on repeat readings. The only thing worse than scum in a game are townies that waste other peoples time while they are looking for scum. Instead, we have to identify and ignore your madness, which is insanely counter productive. As far as your trap, still don't know what you're going for there. Once the game starts, people have a responsibility to actually be playing. If they can't make it, they tell the GM and he replaces them; not a big deal.

My head still hurts.
They say great science is built on the shoulders of giants. Not here. At Aperture, we do all our science from scratch, no hand holding. Step aside, REAL SCIENCE coming through.
gumshoe
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Canada3602 Posts
February 26 2012 22:51 GMT
#228
On February 27 2012 07:49 Janaan wrote:
So FourFace, pretty much all I got out of that post was that you don't like Mafia guides, and that you're readily admitting that you lied when you told me there wasn't a reason why you voted for JekyllAndHyde. That's not really a very good start to defending yourself in my opinion.


Dosent it remind you almost exactly of me ?
gumshoe bullshitting at 120%~~Prplz
ghost_403
Profile Joined September 2010
United States1825 Posts
February 26 2012 22:52 GMT
#229
@gumshoe Fair enough. Also, lol.
They say great science is built on the shoulders of giants. Not here. At Aperture, we do all our science from scratch, no hand holding. Step aside, REAL SCIENCE coming through.
Janaan
Profile Joined June 2011
United States381 Posts
February 26 2012 22:52 GMT
#230
Gumshoe, yeah, I know......I was actually thinking that, funnily enough.
phagga
Profile Joined February 2012
Switzerland2194 Posts
February 26 2012 22:53 GMT
#231
+ Show Spoiler +
On February 27 2012 07:42 FourFace wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
On February 27 2012 06:36 DoYouHas wrote:
Alright, I have seen a few things already that I don't like and I'm ready to throw some suspicion around.

FourFace

I don't like that his first post places unwarranted suspicion on the hydras. He could argue that he was just putting pressure on them, but this post
Show nested quote +
On February 26 2012 20:58 FourFace wrote:
Either way i + Show Spoiler +
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=315559#2

... to apply some pressure. But it's rather harmless

shows he doesn't quite understand how to put pressure on someone properly yet. I also don't like his lack of opinion on the soft deadline (thanks for the phrase slOosh). He says he is waiting for a thorough pro/con discussion. But a few of us had already provided pros, so in order to be ambivalent to the idea he must have had some cons in mind, but chooses not to post them.

Show nested quote +
On February 26 2012 18:13 FourFace wrote:
1. I'm a total scrub at this game btw, playing my debut game with you hansom TL-ers. I like the theme, reminds me of Dexter's Lab when the bacteria took over his family and he had to get into the dodgeball suit and kick their asses.

2. I support the idea of lynching lurkers over lynching suspicious individuals although if someone starts spamming protocol and tips about how you should play, with the excuse of this being a newbie game, it kinda bothers me and I might vote against such a person. I recommend keeping things concise (with the exception of day 1, because we have to get to know each other, so posting stuff about voyager and whatnot is welcome since it's an indication of ones personality and a hint to what you can expect to hear from that person in the future.. even though gumshoe makes the impression of being a couple arrows short of a quiver I think he sets the right tone to be followed but for this first day only)
Generally I'd like people to post pros and cons when they want to implement a policy, for others to get an idea about weather the motives behind it are benevolent, malicious or incompetent in nature.
3. No no lynch policy pro/con (that i can think of): We got 10 for town and 4 scum, starting probabilities for lynching are 10 to 4 for an innocent townie and 4 to 10 for scum. After each day 1 townie gets shot by mafia so if another townie gets lynched it's 8 to 4 chances to lynch a townie after second day's vote and 4 to 8 chances of lynching scum and so forth. If someone could make a tree diagram real quickly listing probabilities for lynching either town or scum up until day 6 or so and multiply the probabilities that would be appreciated (without doctor or vigilante interference first to get a general idea).
Worst case scenario is lynching town every time for 2 consecutive days which means game over after day[3]. Best case would be lynching scum every time in which case town wins at the dawn of the fifth day with 6 town alive and 0 scum. So is it advisable to lynch the first day without any concrete evidence, i have no idea. Some math boy-genius figure it out, but all in all (considering detective, medics and player behavior) my gut tells me that the success-rate of a lynch is a curve which drops the first couple of days and reaches it's max at the LYLO point. We can either plan our build for that lategame where success-rate is high or we can gamble and lynch right away. Either way we need to know the math to get an idea of the setup and we don't have much time to figure out what is more important.. gathering information or action.
If we don't lynch then tomorrow will likely be 9 town to 4 at which point the worst scenario would be game over after day[4] with 5 town to 4 scum at the LYLO point on day[3], which sounds way better for me (gaining a day), but again this is without vigilante/medic/strategy which I think would inflate towns chances even more.


1. Lowering our expectations of him. Not a big deal, it is a newbie game.

2. Wants to lynch lurkers over suspicious people... unless they are posting advice and protocol. That is what would make a person suspicious enough to FourFace that they need to be voted over a lurker. Seems a bit off to me. At best this statement is wishy-washy and means nothing. At worse it reveals FourFace to have a skewed point of view.

3. This whole section says 1 thing of value. In a worst case scenario, a no-lynch on day1 gives us 1 more day of play before game over. The rest is pointing out the obvious, needless speculation, and trying to get others to jump on board with discussion about the setup. I think that the majority of this first post, while big, says almost nothing. Very suspicious.

(I'm taking the spoilers out of this next one)
Show nested quote +
On February 26 2012 20:58 FourFace wrote:
Pro no lynch on first day:
If we get to Day[2] with 2 townies missing .. how much info do you get from that? We need successful lynches for info to spring, Janaan. We are scientists, remember? We need a statistic edge and we'll build on it with what info comes along.
Vote for who you think benefits the town the least but refrain from lynching on the first day. You can gather info from who gets shot and whether you get saved or not. Plus on Day[2] the DT made check, or possibly even gets roleblocked, or saved, or shot by friendly fire.
And also if we lynch today we have no DT support because he hasn't made his check yet. I wouldn't know what to make out of the lynch info even if against all odds it turns out to be scum, as it could be one of their plans to sacrifice one of them by bandwagoning on his lynch and playing the "i would have tried to stop the lynch if i was scum" card all game long.
Sort of like a 5 pool, sacrifice drones for early aggression.

Con no lynch on first day:
One of the methods mafia use to win is stall so we need decimate their numbers quickly, 40 percent chance is acceptable, and we get to sack those who aren't active enough for town to collaborate successfully. I doubt that someone who posts conclusively will be a candidate so it's either lurker or BS spammer, either way no big asset to town so why not start right away.

Either way i http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=315559#2
... to apply some pressure. But it's rather harmless



Pro - Not vote for who you think is scum, vote for who you think benefits the town the least.

Pro - FF seems to want to rely on blues to provide us with information. And speculation on who gets shot by scum tends to be WIFOM and useless. FF downplays the value of information gained by a lynch, up-plays the value of information gotten by a mafia hit. And goes back to blues for actually figuring the game out. This is a very wrong way of looking at the game.

Con - First off, it isn't a 40% chance, it is closer to a 29% chance. 4/14, not 4/10. Secondly, FF has wandered into random lynch territory instead of staying on pro/con for nolynch. I don't like it one bit.

Con - Just like in his pro-nolynch argument he is espousing voting for those who are least valuable to town, not scum. I italicized the statement in this section that I just hate and think betrays FF's attitude.

Show nested quote +
On February 27 2012 05:32 FourFace wrote:
I knew this was going to be fun. Had a LOL moment already; gumshoe says "Glad to have you on our side Alderaan ( : as for absolutes do you mind making decisions like that on a day to day basis?"
and Alderan is like: "What do you mean?"
Seriously wtf did you mean bro?

Anyway I am disapoint about Steveling not reading this thread from start to finish. If he would have realized what a hydra is (i didn't know either until i did read .. THE WHOLE .. thread from START 2 FINISH and my eyes are still functioning properly) (DO THIS NOW if you haven't already GOOGG we'll be waiting THANK YOU!)

Also certain circumstances made it so that I already have an idea of a case bait set up. The trap is up and running as we speak. At this point I can only say that there's an elephant in the room and whether people see it or not, mention it or not will give a mass check on all

@Janaan why JekyllAndHyde and not some other lurker? I don't know, lynch me


I asked you all to have a purpose in mind when you posted things. So what is the purpose of this post? From what I can see the purpose of this post is to foment conflict between gumshoe and Alderan, to undercut/place suspicion on Steveling, and to hint at a secret strategy. Also, wtf is with this statement, "I don't know, lynch me".

As to that secret strategy, I sure hope an integral part of it is letting us know that a trap is out there. Because if it isn't then all you have done is made people more afraid to post for fear of stepping into your trap. So if your trap doesn't depend on letting us know that it exists, you are acting very scummy.

##FOS: FourFace


OMG, There's a case against me.. read quickly ..think of something .. What the hell is FOS and why is the maficascum.net abbreviation thingy having poblems loading AARHHH!

Well looks like I'm going to have to come clean .. I'm crazy. Yes you heard me. I'm a total loon, a nutcase. Where others follow a coherent thought process I jump like a cangoroo in between dimensions. I don't have a split personality, I have 4. They all speak different languages but since this is in english we have to rely on the english guy translating everything we say into english and he often times fucks it up.

You want to lynch me .. fine. Put an end to my misery. I'm not even going to begin to take your arguments apart because quite frankly I read the the guidelines and told to myselves it would be fun to do exactly the opposite of what it says here.

Did you ever think of the possibility that once a bunch of guides are released that try to lecture you about how to spot suspicious behavior in a game you have to calculate for the fact that people are going to behave differently because of those guides. What's next, writing a guide about how to play in games where players have read the guides?

I'm going to go ahead and tell you this because I believe it's true: There is no mafia specific behavior on Day[1]. It's impossible to figure out what's going on. You have people like me who are crazy and get a fix out of the attention that cooky play brings, who knows what the others are here for.

As for my clandestine trap.. yeah let's just put it out there so everyone can avoid it .. ok let's go:

I was going to watch who votes for poor JekyllAndHyde hydra. After I randomly selected him out of the 3 or 4 inactives I started reading the whole thread and even did some background check on Cephiro but that's not essential at this point. The elephant is the fact that Cephiro says in his first post when he signed up:
Show nested quote +
On February 24 2012 15:40 Cephiro wrote:
/in (Hoping this will not start until the 29th)


The reason for him not posting anything has been hinted upon before the game started. Why would anyone who read the whole thread and realize there are 2 votes against him not mention this?

Anyway my trap is still up because you can't possibly know what I'm talking about aless we're on the same frequency of insanity which is highly unlikely. Yeah I messed up the percentage.. I was thinking in terms of scum to town ratio not scum to total amount of players. No I don't really care about that "soft deadline" whatever policy because I'm utterly incapable of understanding it, which to me means that it's insignificant.

So DOC, what's my diagnosic. Is it contagious, do I need to be quarantined? Pills, yes ook, ahmm no problem, I'll take em`, wouldn't be the first time I get these i figure I'll sleep for at least 16 hours and wake up with a limp tongue. So yeah .. have a nice day.


In short, you wanted to make a trap in which people who have not read the thread completely (including the /in messages which are not part of the actual game) might vote for a guy who may or may not be online in the next four days for unknown reasons. The rest of your post is fluff and distracting.

You imply that:
- Everyone still has all the messages before the game started in mind
- Everyone who does not have those messages in mind must clearly be scum

If this would not be a newbie game, I would have voted for you already. But in this case, I'll sleep over it first.
"A person who does not concern himself with politics has already made the political choice he was so anxious to spare himself: he is serving the ruling party." - Max Frisch
gumshoe
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Canada3602 Posts
February 26 2012 22:54 GMT
#232
On February 27 2012 07:42 FourFace wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
On February 27 2012 06:36 DoYouHas wrote:
Alright, I have seen a few things already that I don't like and I'm ready to throw some suspicion around.

FourFace

I don't like that his first post places unwarranted suspicion on the hydras. He could argue that he was just putting pressure on them, but this post
Show nested quote +
On February 26 2012 20:58 FourFace wrote:
Either way i + Show Spoiler +
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=315559#2

... to apply some pressure. But it's rather harmless

shows he doesn't quite understand how to put pressure on someone properly yet. I also don't like his lack of opinion on the soft deadline (thanks for the phrase slOosh). He says he is waiting for a thorough pro/con discussion. But a few of us had already provided pros, so in order to be ambivalent to the idea he must have had some cons in mind, but chooses not to post them.

Show nested quote +
On February 26 2012 18:13 FourFace wrote:
1. I'm a total scrub at this game btw, playing my debut game with you hansom TL-ers. I like the theme, reminds me of Dexter's Lab when the bacteria took over his family and he had to get into the dodgeball suit and kick their asses.

2. I support the idea of lynching lurkers over lynching suspicious individuals although if someone starts spamming protocol and tips about how you should play, with the excuse of this being a newbie game, it kinda bothers me and I might vote against such a person. I recommend keeping things concise (with the exception of day 1, because we have to get to know each other, so posting stuff about voyager and whatnot is welcome since it's an indication of ones personality and a hint to what you can expect to hear from that person in the future.. even though gumshoe makes the impression of being a couple arrows short of a quiver I think he sets the right tone to be followed but for this first day only)
Generally I'd like people to post pros and cons when they want to implement a policy, for others to get an idea about weather the motives behind it are benevolent, malicious or incompetent in nature.
3. No no lynch policy pro/con (that i can think of): We got 10 for town and 4 scum, starting probabilities for lynching are 10 to 4 for an innocent townie and 4 to 10 for scum. After each day 1 townie gets shot by mafia so if another townie gets lynched it's 8 to 4 chances to lynch a townie after second day's vote and 4 to 8 chances of lynching scum and so forth. If someone could make a tree diagram real quickly listing probabilities for lynching either town or scum up until day 6 or so and multiply the probabilities that would be appreciated (without doctor or vigilante interference first to get a general idea).
Worst case scenario is lynching town every time for 2 consecutive days which means game over after day[3]. Best case would be lynching scum every time in which case town wins at the dawn of the fifth day with 6 town alive and 0 scum. So is it advisable to lynch the first day without any concrete evidence, i have no idea. Some math boy-genius figure it out, but all in all (considering detective, medics and player behavior) my gut tells me that the success-rate of a lynch is a curve which drops the first couple of days and reaches it's max at the LYLO point. We can either plan our build for that lategame where success-rate is high or we can gamble and lynch right away. Either way we need to know the math to get an idea of the setup and we don't have much time to figure out what is more important.. gathering information or action.
If we don't lynch then tomorrow will likely be 9 town to 4 at which point the worst scenario would be game over after day[4] with 5 town to 4 scum at the LYLO point on day[3], which sounds way better for me (gaining a day), but again this is without vigilante/medic/strategy which I think would inflate towns chances even more.


1. Lowering our expectations of him. Not a big deal, it is a newbie game.

2. Wants to lynch lurkers over suspicious people... unless they are posting advice and protocol. That is what would make a person suspicious enough to FourFace that they need to be voted over a lurker. Seems a bit off to me. At best this statement is wishy-washy and means nothing. At worse it reveals FourFace to have a skewed point of view.

3. This whole section says 1 thing of value. In a worst case scenario, a no-lynch on day1 gives us 1 more day of play before game over. The rest is pointing out the obvious, needless speculation, and trying to get others to jump on board with discussion about the setup. I think that the majority of this first post, while big, says almost nothing. Very suspicious.

(I'm taking the spoilers out of this next one)
Show nested quote +
On February 26 2012 20:58 FourFace wrote:
Pro no lynch on first day:
If we get to Day[2] with 2 townies missing .. how much info do you get from that? We need successful lynches for info to spring, Janaan. We are scientists, remember? We need a statistic edge and we'll build on it with what info comes along.
Vote for who you think benefits the town the least but refrain from lynching on the first day. You can gather info from who gets shot and whether you get saved or not. Plus on Day[2] the DT made check, or possibly even gets roleblocked, or saved, or shot by friendly fire.
And also if we lynch today we have no DT support because he hasn't made his check yet. I wouldn't know what to make out of the lynch info even if against all odds it turns out to be scum, as it could be one of their plans to sacrifice one of them by bandwagoning on his lynch and playing the "i would have tried to stop the lynch if i was scum" card all game long.
Sort of like a 5 pool, sacrifice drones for early aggression.

Con no lynch on first day:
One of the methods mafia use to win is stall so we need decimate their numbers quickly, 40 percent chance is acceptable, and we get to sack those who aren't active enough for town to collaborate successfully. I doubt that someone who posts conclusively will be a candidate so it's either lurker or BS spammer, either way no big asset to town so why not start right away.

Either way i http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=315559#2
... to apply some pressure. But it's rather harmless



Pro - Not vote for who you think is scum, vote for who you think benefits the town the least.

Pro - FF seems to want to rely on blues to provide us with information. And speculation on who gets shot by scum tends to be WIFOM and useless. FF downplays the value of information gained by a lynch, up-plays the value of information gotten by a mafia hit. And goes back to blues for actually figuring the game out. This is a very wrong way of looking at the game.

Con - First off, it isn't a 40% chance, it is closer to a 29% chance. 4/14, not 4/10. Secondly, FF has wandered into random lynch territory instead of staying on pro/con for nolynch. I don't like it one bit.

Con - Just like in his pro-nolynch argument he is espousing voting for those who are least valuable to town, not scum. I italicized the statement in this section that I just hate and think betrays FF's attitude.

Show nested quote +
On February 27 2012 05:32 FourFace wrote:
I knew this was going to be fun. Had a LOL moment already; gumshoe says "Glad to have you on our side Alderaan ( : as for absolutes do you mind making decisions like that on a day to day basis?"
and Alderan is like: "What do you mean?"
Seriously wtf did you mean bro?

Anyway I am disapoint about Steveling not reading this thread from start to finish. If he would have realized what a hydra is (i didn't know either until i did read .. THE WHOLE .. thread from START 2 FINISH and my eyes are still functioning properly) (DO THIS NOW if you haven't already GOOGG we'll be waiting THANK YOU!)

Also certain circumstances made it so that I already have an idea of a case bait set up. The trap is up and running as we speak. At this point I can only say that there's an elephant in the room and whether people see it or not, mention it or not will give a mass check on all

@Janaan why JekyllAndHyde and not some other lurker? I don't know, lynch me


I asked you all to have a purpose in mind when you posted things. So what is the purpose of this post? From what I can see the purpose of this post is to foment conflict between gumshoe and Alderan, to undercut/place suspicion on Steveling, and to hint at a secret strategy. Also, wtf is with this statement, "I don't know, lynch me".

As to that secret strategy, I sure hope an integral part of it is letting us know that a trap is out there. Because if it isn't then all you have done is made people more afraid to post for fear of stepping into your trap. So if your trap doesn't depend on letting us know that it exists, you are acting very scummy.

##FOS: FourFace


OMG, There's a case against me.. read quickly ..think of something .. What the hell is FOS and why is the maficascum.net abbreviation thingy having poblems loading AARHHH!

Well looks like I'm going to have to come clean .. I'm crazy. Yes you heard me. I'm a total loon, a nutcase. Where others follow a coherent thought process I jump like a cangoroo in between dimensions. I don't have a split personality, I have 4. They all speak different languages but since this is in english we have to rely on the english guy translating everything we say into english and he often times fucks it up.

You want to lynch me .. fine. Put an end to my misery. I'm not even going to begin to take your arguments apart because quite frankly I read the the guidelines and told to myselves it would be fun to do exactly the opposite of what it says here.

Did you ever think of the possibility that once a bunch of guides are released that try to lecture you about how to spot suspicious behavior in a game you have to calculate for the fact that people are going to behave differently because of those guides. What's next, writing a guide about how to play in games where players have read the guides?

I'm going to go ahead and tell you this because I believe it's true: There is no mafia specific behavior on Day[1]. It's impossible to figure out what's going on. You have people like me who are crazy and get a fix out of the attention that cooky play brings, who knows what the others are here for.

As for my clandestine trap.. yeah let's just put it out there so everyone can avoid it .. ok let's go:

I was going to watch who votes for poor JekyllAndHyde hydra. After I randomly selected him out of the 3 or 4 inactives I started reading the whole thread and even did some background check on Cephiro but that's not essential at this point. The elephant is the fact that Cephiro says in his first post when he signed up:
Show nested quote +
On February 24 2012 15:40 Cephiro wrote:
/in (Hoping this will not start until the 29th)


The reason for him not posting anything has been hinted upon before the game started. Why would anyone who read the whole thread and realize there are 2 votes against him not mention this?

Anyway my trap is still up because you can't possibly know what I'm talking about aless we're on the same frequency of insanity which is highly unlikely. Yeah I messed up the percentage.. I was thinking in terms of scum to town ratio not scum to total amount of players. No I don't really care about that "soft deadline" whatever policy because I'm utterly incapable of understanding it, which to me means that it's insignificant.

So DOC, what's my diagnosic. Is it contagious, do I need to be quarantined? Pills, yes ook, ahmm no problem, I'll take em`, wouldn't be the first time I get these i figure I'll sleep for at least 16 hours and wake up with a limp tongue. So yeah .. have a nice day.


Four face this is not the way to address a case, calm down, and quote the case against you so that you can address it point by point in a rational manner, also I put out a small case against you as well so have a look at that to.
gumshoe bullshitting at 120%~~Prplz
gumshoe
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Canada3602 Posts
February 26 2012 22:59 GMT
#233
On February 27 2012 07:52 ghost_403 wrote:
@gumshoe Fair enough. Also, lol.


Thats it? Fair enough? And then you try to switch the topic? Your not being very transparent right now ghost.
gumshoe bullshitting at 120%~~Prplz
ghost_403
Profile Joined September 2010
United States1825 Posts
February 26 2012 23:02 GMT
#234
@gumshoe I'm not actually sure why we're still talking about this.

For me, personally, I don't use the FOS. If someone is acting scummy, I call them out on it. If I don't have a better lynch target, I vote for them. If your way of calling out people for being scummy is to use the FOS, by all means go for it.

And I was laughing at the irony comment. I do appreciate good irony.
They say great science is built on the shoulders of giants. Not here. At Aperture, we do all our science from scratch, no hand holding. Step aside, REAL SCIENCE coming through.
gumshoe
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Canada3602 Posts
February 26 2012 23:07 GMT
#235
On February 27 2012 08:02 ghost_403 wrote:
@gumshoe I'm not actually sure why we're still talking about this.

For me, personally, I don't use the FOS. If someone is acting scummy, I call them out on it. If I don't have a better lynch target, I vote for them. If your way of calling out people for being scummy is to use the FOS, by all means go for it.

And I was laughing at the irony comment. I do appreciate good irony.


theres another gem you mightve missed ( : (your not bieng very transparent ghost)

fair enough, I will drop the issue for the time being.
gumshoe bullshitting at 120%~~Prplz
ghost_403
Profile Joined September 2010
United States1825 Posts
February 26 2012 23:07 GMT
#236
@gumshoe ...

HA! I saw what you did there. Lmao.
They say great science is built on the shoulders of giants. Not here. At Aperture, we do all our science from scratch, no hand holding. Step aside, REAL SCIENCE coming through.
Janaan
Profile Joined June 2011
United States381 Posts
February 26 2012 23:15 GMT
#237
Be back in a few hours.
Chocolate
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States2350 Posts
February 27 2012 00:37 GMT
#238
wtf is going on fourface.. that's NOT how you should defend yourself at all. I could barely even tell what the point of that post was. From now on try to be concise with your posts,, i.e. don't post a bunch of useless fluff to make your post longer, because that is scummy.

I'm going to vote for you for the time being because that was really weird. If you sufficiently explain yourself and start to make sense I will unvote you.

@ghost you thought I was scummy because I voted on a lurker? I don't see anything wrong with that at all, please explain why you dislike it.
Alderan
Profile Joined September 2010
United States463 Posts
February 27 2012 00:46 GMT
#239
fourface = gumshoe last game (different approach, similar results).

Fourface I'm going to tell you the same advice someone told gumshoe last game.

- Chill out
- Keep your posts CONCISE
- Only post when you're going to contribute
- Chill out

DoYouHas
Profile Joined November 2008
United States1140 Posts
February 27 2012 01:29 GMT
#240
Alderan, you say that FF = gumshoe last game. Does that mean you are leaning town for him? Please give more details as to your thoughts on my case and your thoughts on FF in general.
Guts? Determination? $5?
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