Newbie Mini Mafia IV - Page 11

On February 27 2012 06:06 Janaan wrote:


I think I've already made my position clear on this. I also think that setting any kind of deadline 24 hours before the actual vote deadline is too soon. As already stated, I'm fine with somewhere around 8-12 hours before, but any earlier, any vote we end up agreeing on, especially if it's a lurker lynch, is bound to change.

On February 26 2012 20:58 FourFace wrote:
Either way i + Show Spoiler +
... to apply some pressure. But it's rather harmless

On February 26 2012 18:13 FourFace wrote:
1. I'm a total scrub at this game btw, playing my debut game with you hansom TL-ers. I like the theme, reminds me of Dexter's Lab when the bacteria took over his family and he had to get into the dodgeball suit and kick their asses.

2. I support the idea of lynching lurkers over lynching suspicious individuals although if someone starts spamming protocol and tips about how you should play, with the excuse of this being a newbie game, it kinda bothers me and I might vote against such a person. I recommend keeping things concise (with the exception of day 1, because we have to get to know each other, so posting stuff about voyager and whatnot is welcome since it's an indication of ones personality and a hint to what you can expect to hear from that person in the future.. even though gumshoe makes the impression of being a couple arrows short of a quiver I think he sets the right tone to be followed but for this first day only)
Generally I'd like people to post pros and cons when they want to implement a policy, for others to get an idea about weather the motives behind it are benevolent, malicious or incompetent in nature.
3. No no lynch policy pro/con (that i can think of): We got 10 for town and 4 scum, starting probabilities for lynching are 10 to 4 for an innocent townie and 4 to 10 for scum. After each day 1 townie gets shot by mafia so if another townie gets lynched it's 8 to 4 chances to lynch a townie after second day's vote and 4 to 8 chances of lynching scum and so forth. If someone could make a tree diagram real quickly listing probabilities for lynching either town or scum up until day 6 or so and multiply the probabilities that would be appreciated (without doctor or vigilante interference first to get a general idea).
Worst case scenario is lynching town every time for 2 consecutive days which means game over after day[3]. Best case would be lynching scum every time in which case town wins at the dawn of the fifth day with 6 town alive and 0 scum. So is it advisable to lynch the first day without any concrete evidence, i have no idea. Some math boy-genius figure it out, but all in all (considering detective, medics and player behavior) my gut tells me that the success-rate of a lynch is a curve which drops the first couple of days and reaches it's max at the LYLO point. We can either plan our build for that lategame where success-rate is high or we can gamble and lynch right away. Either way we need to know the math to get an idea of the setup and we don't have much time to figure out what is more important.. gathering information or action.
If we don't lynch then tomorrow will likely be 9 town to 4 at which point the worst scenario would be game over after day[4] with 5 town to 4 scum at the LYLO point on day[3], which sounds way better for me (gaining a day), but again this is without vigilante/medic/strategy which I think would inflate towns chances even more.

On February 26 2012 20:58 FourFace wrote:
Pro no lynch on first day:
If we get to Day[2] with 2 townies missing .. how much info do you get from that? We need successful lynches for info to spring, Janaan. We are scientists, remember? We need a statistic edge and we'll build on it with what info comes along.
Vote for who you think benefits the town the least but refrain from lynching on the first day. You can gather info from who gets shot and whether you get saved or not. Plus on Day[2] the DT made check, or possibly even gets roleblocked, or saved, or shot by friendly fire.
And also if we lynch today we have no DT support because he hasn't made his check yet. I wouldn't know what to make out of the lynch info even if against all odds it turns out to be scum, as it could be one of their plans to sacrifice one of them by bandwagoning on his lynch and playing the "i would have tried to stop the lynch if i was scum" card all game long. Sort of like a 5 pool, sacrifice drones for early aggression.

Con no lynch on first day:
One of the methods mafia use to win is stall so we need decimate their numbers quickly, 40 percent chance is acceptable, and we get to sack those who aren't active enough for town to collaborate successfully. I doubt that someone who posts conclusively will be a candidate so it's either lurker or BS spammer, either way no big asset to town so why not start right away.

Either way i http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=315559#2
... to apply some pressure. But it's rather harmless

On February 27 2012 05:32 FourFace wrote:
I knew this was going to be fun. Had a LOL moment already; gumshoe says "Glad to have you on our side Alderaan ( : as for absolutes do you mind making decisions like that on a day to day basis?"
and Alderan is like: "What do you mean?"
Seriously wtf did you mean bro?

Anyway I am disapoint about Steveling not reading this thread from start to finish. If he would have realized what a hydra is (i didn't know either until i did read .. THE WHOLE .. thread from START 2 FINISH and my eyes are still functioning properly) (DO THIS NOW if you haven't already GOOGG we'll be waiting THANK YOU!)

Also certain circumstances made it so that I already have an idea of a case bait set up. The trap is up and running as we speak. At this point I can only say that there's an elephant in the room and whether people see it or not, mention it or not will give a mass check on all

@Janaan why JekyllAndHyde and not some other lurker? I don't know, lynch me

On February 27 2012 06:36 DoYouHas wrote:
Alright, I have seen a few things already that I don't like and I'm ready to throw some suspicion around.

FourFace

I don't like that his first post places unwarranted suspicion on the hydras. He could argue that he was just putting pressure on them, but this post

shows he doesn't quite understand how to put pressure on someone properly yet. I also don't like his lack of opinion on the soft deadline (thanks for the phrase slOosh). He says he is waiting for a thorough pro/con discussion. But a few of us had already provided pros, so in order to be ambivalent to the idea he must have had some cons in mind, but chooses not to post them.



1. Lowering our expectations of him. Not a big deal, it is a newbie game.

2. Wants to lynch lurkers over suspicious people... unless they are posting advice and protocol. That is what would make a person suspicious enough to FourFace that they need to be voted over a lurker. Seems a bit off to me. At best this statement is wishy-washy and means nothing. At worse it reveals FourFace to have a skewed point of view.

3. This whole section says 1 thing of value. In a worst case scenario, a no-lynch on day1 gives us 1 more day of play before game over. The rest is pointing out the obvious, needless speculation, and trying to get others to jump on board with discussion about the setup. I think that the majority of this first post, while big, says almost nothing. Very suspicious.

(I'm taking the spoilers out of this next one)


Pro - Not vote for who you think is scum, vote for who you think benefits the town the least.

Pro - FF seems to want to rely on blues to provide us with information. And speculation on who gets shot by scum tends to be WIFOM and useless. FF downplays the value of information gained by a lynch, up-plays the value of information gotten by a mafia hit. And goes back to blues for actually figuring the game out. This is a very wrong way of looking at the game.

Con - First off, it isn't a 40% chance, it is closer to a 29% chance. 4/14, not 4/10. Secondly, FF has wandered into random lynch territory instead of staying on pro/con for nolynch. I don't like it one bit.

Con - Just like in his pro-nolynch argument he is espousing voting for those who are least valuable to town, not scum. I italicized the statement in this section that I just hate and think betrays FF's attitude.



I asked you all to have a purpose in mind when you posted things. So what is the purpose of this post? From what I can see the purpose of this post is to foment conflict between gumshoe and Alderan, to undercut/place suspicion on Steveling, and to hint at a secret strategy. Also, wtf is with this statement, "I don't know, lynch me".

As to that secret strategy, I sure hope an integral part of it is letting us know that a trap is out there. Because if it isn't then all you have done is made people more afraid to post for fear of stepping into your trap. So if your trap doesn't depend on letting us know that it exists, you are acting very scummy.

##FOS: FourFace

On February 27 2012 06:42 DoYouHas wrote:
For those of you having issues with the soft deadline. The purpose of a soft deadline is to take stock of people's prime suspicions so that we can work towards a majority in a reasonable amount of time instead of in the hour or 30mins leading up to the actual deadline. Don't feel like a soft deadline is locking in your vote on someone, that would be wasting quite a bit of time. Think of it as a tool that we can use to come to our majority in a reasoned way, instead of in a frantic, emotional way. I propose we make our soft deadline 8 hours before the actual deadline.

On February 27 2012 06:49 DoYouHas wrote:
Could you please not quote the whole wall of text in order to add a 1 line comment? It clutters the thread and is seriously annoying. Put it in spoilers or something.

On February 27 2012 07:18 ghost_403 wrote:
Just got back and I've seen a few things that I'm not too happy about

It seems that most of the discussion on this thread has been built around the idea of a soft deadline and a no-lynch day 1. Here are my thoughts on both of those.

A soft deadline isn't really needed. At all. If your concern is that people change their votes at the last minute and mess up votes, there is a simple solution to that: we lynch people who change their votes at the last minute and mess up votes. I would rather lynch scum over people who mess up votes, but I'm down with policy lynching. Townies, don't change your vote at the last minute and mess up votes. I will vote to policy lynch you.

A no lynch day 1 is a bad idea. Pretty much, no matter who you are, a no lynch plays against your win condition, unless you're the Batman. As there is not the Batman in this game, no lynching goes against your win condition. Look at it this way: no matter your alignment, you win when there is no one else in the game. Period.

Another way to look at that is if you are still left during day 3 after 2 mislynches. There are 6 townies and 4 scum. The scum are either (1) forced to work together to stay alive, and are pretty easy to spot or (2) are going to sacrifice one of their own. Unless something goes horribly, horribly wrong, the worst case scenario for day 4 is 5 townies to 3 scum. No problem.

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Responses to posts in thread:

@chocolate If this wasn't a newbie game, I would lynch you for that post.

@DoYouHas I think you're right on with that post. Not a big fan of the FOS thing, but whatever. I think it gives them room to run and hide. Instead, GO FOR THE KILL.

@gumshoe See above.

@fourface Start explaining yourself, or I'll start the bandwagon rolling.

@phagga I stand by what I said. I would much rather lynch scum, but if I can't, I'll lynch lurkers. The town lost that game because they let Palmar double lynch every day. As far as those two specific cases, rgTheSchworz should have been modkilled, and I would have lynched Lanaia instead mderg if I had had the time that day. She had no case against him, and I would have pointed that out, regardless of my alliance in that game.

On February 27 2012 07:13 phagga wrote:
While I generally like the idea of an artificial vote deadline, I think 20 hours is over the top. The idea of a 48 hour day cycle is to assure that people of different time zones have the possibility to argue and come to an agreement. Setting the deadline to 20 hours before night pretty much contradicts the idea of the 48 hour day. I would agree to a deadline 8 hour before night falls, though.

Policy lynching lurkers is stupid. You have to differentiate between people who avoid the thread on purpose (rather scummy) and people who are denied thread activity by real life. The first one is anti-town behavior, the second one isn't. Lynching the second kind of lurker is often weakening town, and should be avoided.

In that context, only because someone is not playing pro-town does not make them anti-town. (Only because something is not black, it is no necessarily white).



The town should only be lynching scum. Lynching town lurkers hurts us more than it helps. You of all people in this game should know this after the werewolves game (remember mderg and rgTheSchworz?). But then again, perhaps you're scum in this game as well?

The town should only be lynching scum. Lynching town lurkers hurts us more than it helps. You of all people in this game should know this after the werewolves game (remember mderg and rgTheSchworz?). But then again, perhaps you're scum in this game as well?

On February 27 2012 07:24 ghost_403 wrote:
@gumshoe I was refering to the comment for DoYouHas.

On February 27 2012 07:35 phagga wrote:


Where Did I say that we should not lynch? All I said is that we should try to lynch scum everyday. Don't lynch lurkers only because they lurk. If we have evidence that they actively avoid the thread (e.g. are in the TL Mafia IRC channel the whole day but don't post here), then yes, lynch them. Else, we need more reason to lynch them.

I do not like a "no lynch on Day 1"-Policy. We should be lynching every day. It's like a tradition

@ghost_403: town lost because they sheeped Palmar. But that's another story. Nevertheless, we lost 2 townies because a majority agreed that lynching lurkers was a good idea, when it clearly wasn't.