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Okay I'm unvoting right now: ##Unvote Drem903
Explanation: What he said is basicly what he blames me to do. Doing a mistake although I said it never was a mistake it just wasn't meant to be interpreted that way (still can't believe how someone interpreted it that way...). So that looks scummy by his very own logic, HOWEVER if he truely would be scum, shouldn't he know how much mafias this game got?... I'm just confused right now and don't know who to vote for...
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There posting distances them from eachother, so if one of them gets lynched.. they can refer to these. Risk and I both made one post putting a small amount of suspicion on each other, does that mean we're scum buddies? Oh wait! He flipped green!
But seriously hyshes, you're going to have to make a much more solid case than that if you want me to believe those 3 are scum. Since I am not on your list of scum, I assume you'd want to get me voting in line with you, so please prove it by giving some actual analysis.
As for this:
I know Ciryandor made a huge post about drem, but he just throws it out there. That post should atleast have ended with a firm FOS or vote on drem to be legit for me.
So he either should have voted him or explicitly typed FOS? He clearly stated in his voting post his preferred order was Skrammen over Drem, and he can't vote for both. I wasn't aware you need to type out FOS to let people know you are suspicious of someone, I thought saying "hey, this person has done a ton of suspicious shit which I have listed and explained here" is much stronger than saying nothing but a line or two and FOS on whoever.
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Ok guys let's stay on the ball. Just think of my position for a second if I actually am town: If I happen to survive this lynch I NEED to get you a mafia lynch, If I'm not able to make that happen I'm dead because I pushed for someone green and you got all the reasons you need to lynch me without a discussion. So I'd say let's find me a mafia. Right now I got about 5 people who I think might be mafia and I guess in the end 2 of them will be mafia and the one remaining is someone not on my mind right now. Not exactly the way I want it to be.
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Belgium428 Posts
On November 03 2011 04:15 HarbingerOfDoom wrote:Show nested quote +There posting distances them from eachother, so if one of them gets lynched.. they can refer to these. Risk and I both made one post putting a small amount of suspicion on each other, does that mean we're scum buddies? Oh wait! He flipped green! But seriously hyshes, you're going to have to make a much more solid case than that if you want me to believe those 3 are scum. Since I am not on your list of scum, I assume you'd want to get me voting in line with you, so please prove it by giving some actual analysis. As for this: Show nested quote + I know Ciryandor made a huge post about drem, but he just throws it out there. That post should atleast have ended with a firm FOS or vote on drem to be legit for me.
So he either should have voted him or explicitly typed FOS? He clearly stated in his voting post his preferred order was Skrammen over Drem, and he can't vote for both. I wasn't aware you need to type out FOS to let people know you are suspicious of someone, I thought saying "hey, this person has done a ton of suspicious shit which I have listed and explained here" is much stronger than saying nothing but a line or two and FOS on whoever.
These three are the only ones that make sense to me after the risk mafia kill. That kill was so strange that there must be something strange going on. I reread the thread twice now, this is the only explanation i could figure out.
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@hyshes What about hackle being scum? Surely you don't have enough info on him to tell whether he is scum or town yet, how would he not offer an alternative explanation? I know you are claiming that is the only explanation you can figure out, but since on my reading of the thread I don't see it, can you please spell it out for me a bit more? Pointing out specific posts and parts of posts that you think make them seem scummy, and implicate them in risk's death would be appreciated.
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Belgium428 Posts
On November 03 2011 04:40 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: @hyshes What about hackle being scum? Surely you don't have enough info on him to tell whether he is scum or town yet, how would he not offer an alternative explanation? I know you are claiming that is the only explanation you can figure out, but since on my reading of the thread I don't see it, can you please spell it out for me a bit more? Pointing out specific posts and parts of posts that you think make them seem scummy, and implicate them in risk's death would be appreciated.
Hackle is a difficult one. He has posted really little.
On the other question: i'm having a real problem explaining it. It's just a combination of the weird risk kill and all the weird post of those 3.
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I've noticed that none of: hackle, chocolate, or Skrammen have posted at all since the start of the second day. (almost 17 hours ago)
To go into some posts on those 3:
chocolate+ Show Spoiler + - last post was about being more agressive against people who make mistakes While we should keep what risk said in mind, imo we should not hesitate to vote someone just for making a noob mistake that could very well be a scum mistake, such as asking, " detective what did you find" or something along those lines. and he has contributed next to nothing to any of the conversations. His only other notable post was to just say what everyone else said and point out that SKrammen was the prime suspect. Major point to take from this: If chocolate is Mafia, then SKrammen likely isn't. Also, as SKrammen pointed out in one of his posts, chocolate never made a case against him, but was quick to vote for him. Not once did you FoS on me, yet you preffered to vote me instead of zanfa. You also FoS'd Ciry but claim you didnt. You seem to be a bit everywhere, throwing suspicions left and right. To me, it appears like you are trying to be a bit of an instigator while saying very little of substance. You've posted nearly as little as I have done, and you say you vote me because of lack of activity?
SKrammen + Show Spoiler +- His last post was to defend himself after Zanfada questioned him for poor word choice in an earlier statement If you decide to lynch me anyway, and I do flip green, there's a good chance all of the scum will be among those who are most adamant about lynching me. If I flip red, then risk and bunneh got some 'splaining to do. I.E. he only really posted under the conditions that he accused Zanfada was posting under What about you. So far, the only thing you have done is come in, instigate somthing on someone else, defend yourself when you got under pressure only to disappear again. And here you are again. He accuses Zan of only posting when under pressure, yet when the heat drops off of him and goas back to toad, he's nowhere to be seen.
Hacklebeast + Show Spoiler + he's probably posted the least of anyone here, so he's either Scum, or an inactive townie. His only notable post to discussion was voting for Toad on day 1 (his vote could also have had SKrammen lynched). Now prior to choosing Toad as his target, he was trying to implicate Zanfada, and he jokingly tries to claim not to be scum because he loves ponies. ## vote toadesstern
I think his moves have been shady since the beginning. First tries to get the important figures to revel themselves (not explicitly, but if a lurker suddenly started posting significantly after it would give mafia a good clue), then follows it up with a lot of talk about the necessity to kill lurkers. To top it off he fingers chocolate only to rescind his vote after no one else follows suit. There is not a lot to go off of when trying to discern if if he's town/mafia, but there is one notable comment, he is the only person to defend chocolate, and then immediately try and turn all discussion back on Toad. It should be noted, that if hackle is mafia, then so is chocolate, as hackle would have no reason to defend chocolate if he wasn't.
##unvote Toadesstern
I'm unvoteing Toad, because i think i was too hasty in my judgment on him. These three above, are the most suspicious people we have, and should be the ones we put more pressure on.
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That's not to say i'm completely changed on Toad, i still have some reservations because, he encouraged blue's to speak more, but he has definitely dropped to 4th on my list after i really looked at the 3 i listed. Toad is, for now, 55% mafia, 45% town if i had to put numbers to how suspicious i am of him.
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At first I thought the Risk kill was odd but the more I thought about it Risk’s death should not have come as much of surprise as people are pointing out, He was obviously town, he posted a lot and was aggressive at night when mafia was making their hit list. Whether the hit was to flame the anti toad movement or stall it out and get us to focus on skramm, I am not sure.
I will have post talking about more current stuff when I am down with class and can compile some posts
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Ok I'll do a list myself and I got about 5 people who I think might be mafia:
drem Lurking hardcore. That's the main reason here and I don't know why he is lurking so much, but other than that I got nothing on him. Yes he did a big mistake with that mafia numbers but the question really is if that was intentionally. I doubt it, since it's such a major mistake everyone should be able to see the second they read it. So I really think he did that mistake for some reason and it's nothing weird other than not knowing this fact. Also blocked a lynch on day1 with a useless vote (useless vote = vote for choc or zanfa imo)
Skrammen I'm still not convinced of him to be mafia, however I don't like him not posting at all. He's completly ignoring this issue right now. I don't know what I'm supposed to think about him. If there's nothing comming the next couple hours I'm probably going to vote for him. Also blocked a lynch on day1. Not a useful talent toi have.
hackleYet again another one of those "not-posting-guys". I don't like it and it looks strange to say the least. Still nothing certain.
HyshesHe did some weird posts the last 2 pages, I already got a semi-fos on him a few pages before and changed my mind. This theses posts I'm considering him to be mafia again.. Also he blocked a lynch on day1 with a useless vote.
bunneh That's his last post + Show Spoiler +On November 02 2011 21:51 IMABUNNEH wrote:I've just spent half my lunch hour catching up on this and reading through... I hope you're happy That kill was.... unexpected. Reading back through his posts, Toad is the only person to REALLY benefit from it. I don't think Toad is that stupid, but do we have any scum around that are stupid enough to think that would work? It's such a BLATANT kill that it could mean almost anything with relation to Toads. I can't see it as unrelated though, so the options in my mind are: 1) Toads is scum. Risk was so vehement about it that killing him protects Toads, and nobody would really think Toads that dumb, so he could get away with it. 2) Someone else was trying to implicate Toads to get people off of them, which would make Skrammen scum most likely. Killing Toads would be too obvious perhaps, so framing Toads much better? 3) Risk only brought a case against ONE other person, which was against Harbinger. Perhaps killing someone not too obvious to keep people off himself. However every explanation both prior to Risk's death and since then seems to include Toad or Skrammen as being red as an option. If one is red the other is almost certainly green, but at this point it is just far too unlikely that neither of them are red. Once I'm home from work and not on lunchbreak I'll pull up Harbinger's post history as well, see what gems are hiding there, because of point 3, unless someone beats me to it. It's definately something worth looking into, especially as he was a part of the Skrammen "bandwagon". I know we have 48 hours, but I think initially at least we should put some focus on these guys. If we're so spread out like Day 1 we'll end up with a no-lynch, and I think I definately made a mistake not switching to Skrammen Day 1. Initially I was far more suspicious of Toads, but they're almost 50/50 now, and having the information from one of them would have made today a lot easier for us. and theres nothing wrong with it as far as I am concerned. But I would like to hear some more from him.
I'd say it's either 2 of them + someone else who seems to be town or 3 of them if we're lucky. Also I think mafia spreaded votes a bit to not screw themselves for the chance of someone dieing. I'd say we got about one mafia voting for me, one mafia voting either for choc or zanfa and one more doing whatever he likes (if skrammen is green that 1 guy could vote for skrammen, he could also vote for me or choc/zanfa as well). I doubt we got all 3 mafias in one "place" considering votes.
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HyshesHe did some weird posts the last 2 pages, I already got a semi-fos on him a few pages before and changed my mind. This theses posts I'm considering him to be mafia again.. Also he blocked a lynch on day1 with a useless vote. Actually I don't remember what I wanted to say with my second sentence and it's not making sense, guess I wanted to change this with these? :D I'd say it's something like: HyshesHe did some weird posts the last 2 pages, I already got a semi-fos on him a few pages before and changed my mind. Because of these posts I'm considering him to be mafia again.. Also he blocked a lynch on day1 with a useless vote.
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Belgium428 Posts
On November 03 2011 07:14 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +HyshesHe did some weird posts the last 2 pages, I already got a semi-fos on him a few pages before and changed my mind. This theses posts I'm considering him to be mafia again.. Also he blocked a lynch on day1 with a useless vote. Actually I don't remember what I wanted to say with my second sentence and it's not making sense, guess I wanted to change this with these? :D I'd say it's something like: Show nested quote + HyshesHe did some weird posts the last 2 pages, I already got a semi-fos on him a few pages before and changed my mind. Because of these posts I'm considering him to be mafia again.. Also he blocked a lynch on day1 with a useless vote.
Ask the host, i was around when the deadline happend. TL f*cked up the [*time*] thing after the hour shift of saturday
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On November 03 2011 07:16 hyshes wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2011 07:14 Toadesstern wrote:HyshesHe did some weird posts the last 2 pages, I already got a semi-fos on him a few pages before and changed my mind. This theses posts I'm considering him to be mafia again.. Also he blocked a lynch on day1 with a useless vote. Actually I don't remember what I wanted to say with my second sentence and it's not making sense, guess I wanted to change this with these? :D I'd say it's something like: HyshesHe did some weird posts the last 2 pages, I already got a semi-fos on him a few pages before and changed my mind. Because of these posts I'm considering him to be mafia again.. Also he blocked a lynch on day1 with a useless vote.
Ask the host, i was around when the deadline happend. TL f*cked up the [*time*] thing after the hour shift of saturday Yeah and that's the reason why I changed my mind and started believing you. The thing that's weird right now still is this post:
On November 03 2011 00:04 hyshes wrote: I jus reread the whole thread and i'm going to post a hard statement here.
Ciryandor - Toadesstern - Drem903
These 3 are referring to each other all the time, without direct accusations. This leaves me to think that they don't want eachother lynched.. but wan to have a backup of posts that do kinda disconnect them. There is something really fishy between those 3. I'm willing to go on a vote on one of these three for sure.
I still think it's wrong and so does harb. Probably a couple other guys too. I'm just not sure why you posted it :p
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@Toad
You seem to leave out Chocolate despite have earlier suspicions on him? What has happened to change that. You claim i'm lurking despite that fact that i post pretty regularly, but seem to disregard the fact that chocolate hasn't posted in ~21 hours.
Again i reiterate my samepoint, it's likely that if hackle is mafia, then chocolate would be also. The reciprocal isn't necessary true, as chocolate never references hackle, but we can't disregard hackles defense and chocolates even more suspicious lurking.
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Belgium428 Posts
On November 03 2011 07:21 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2011 07:16 hyshes wrote:On November 03 2011 07:14 Toadesstern wrote:HyshesHe did some weird posts the last 2 pages, I already got a semi-fos on him a few pages before and changed my mind. This theses posts I'm considering him to be mafia again.. Also he blocked a lynch on day1 with a useless vote. Actually I don't remember what I wanted to say with my second sentence and it's not making sense, guess I wanted to change this with these? :D I'd say it's something like: HyshesHe did some weird posts the last 2 pages, I already got a semi-fos on him a few pages before and changed my mind. Because of these posts I'm considering him to be mafia again.. Also he blocked a lynch on day1 with a useless vote.
Ask the host, i was around when the deadline happend. TL f*cked up the [*time*] thing after the hour shift of saturday Yeah and that's the reason why I changed my mind and started believing you. The thing that's weird right now still is this post: Show nested quote +On November 03 2011 00:04 hyshes wrote: I jus reread the whole thread and i'm going to post a hard statement here.
Ciryandor - Toadesstern - Drem903
These 3 are referring to each other all the time, without direct accusations. This leaves me to think that they don't want eachother lynched.. but wan to have a backup of posts that do kinda disconnect them. There is something really fishy between those 3. I'm willing to go on a vote on one of these three for sure.
I still think it's wrong and so does harb. Probably a couple other guys too. I'm just not sure why you posted it :p
I posted that bc i thought it was obvious. I think it had to be stated. Eventhough i don't like hackle's inactivity, i really dislike how you 3 are posting.
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I never truely targeted choc, he thought I'm mafia and I thought at that time that hyshes and risk are suspicious so I voted for him, choc responded but I wanted to see a response from either hyshe or risk, which never happened so I unvoted
Also my list was not sorted in any way. If I had to tell you 3 mafias right now it would probably be Skrammen, hackle and maybe bunneh or someone else. Those things against hyshes never were major points, except for that one last post. And yeah you're posts the last 2 pages got you fron #1 mafia to #4 or #5 right now :p
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but I did not check on choc since back than I just figured he's town. Will check what you (drem) posted about him and check it myself
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xsksc, you've been pretty quiet, would you mind posting some of your thoughts/analysis? I pretty much have a null read on you currently.
Also, just to mention it, Hacklebeast has posted on TL elsewhere since his last post in here. This suggests to me he is either a disinterested VT, or scum that made his contributions to his scum-buddies but neglected the actual thread. Maybe he'll get mod-killed if he keeps this up, but if he does return I hope he reads this and leaves something along the lines of a detailed analysis giving his current read on every player to compensate for his complete lack of contribution thus far.
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Ok read it and yeah it makes sense. Also you got half a defence for bunneh which you did not mention (perhaps because bunneh wasn't an issue for you?).
Skrammen: If you decide to lynch me anyway, and I do flip green, there's a good chance all of the scum will be among those who are most adamant about lynching me. If I flip red, then risk and bunneh got some 'splaining to do. It could be a weird set-up but given that we know risk it green I might be willing to believe bunneh is probably green too. There's two possible explanations for it imo: 1) Skrammen is red and trying to get us on two townies the moment he flips red. 2) Skrammen is green and just picked those two out of nowhere. I Have issues with his "picks" here. Why did he say bunneh and risk? Ciry was the guy who issued the skrammen lynch, someone (I don't know who right now) followed, and I was the third guy. Whats the reason for choosing bunneh and risken here? Why not go with ciry who issued the wagon or with me? I was having some votes at that time too and the moment skrammen flips green I'm in HUGE trouble here and if he truely is green, he got to know that.
Right now I'm going to say hackle and skrammen are the two guys who are most likely mafia with a preference on hackle. But that's it for me today, got to wake up in 7 hours, I'm going to bed now.
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@Toad, he said if he flips red risk and bunneh have issues. Not if he flips green. He said that because risk and bunneh defended him.
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