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On November 02 2011 19:30 hyshes wrote:Show nested quote +On November 02 2011 19:13 Toadesstern wrote:On November 02 2011 19:05 hyshes wrote:
Erm i did explain why i voted for zanfa.. i needed a vote and wanted to be sure to not get modkilled.. and i missed the deadline because TL screwed up their [*time*] thing for europe...
This mafia kill is actually very strange to me, i had a few scenarios in mind of who would be mafia if someone died.. but i never thought risk would be a target.
oh ok, I thought you said you needed a vote to not get modkilled for the moment (way before deadline) and wanted to change it later on. that is what i said... i needed a vote to not get modkilled.. so i voted for the most suspicous person back then... I probably would have chosen for a lynch if i didn't miss the deadline... (but that is void now)
So now, what say you? Do you have any idea who you think thought of targeting risk?
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On November 02 2011 19:45 Ciryandor wrote:Show nested quote +On November 02 2011 19:30 hyshes wrote:On November 02 2011 19:13 Toadesstern wrote:On November 02 2011 19:05 hyshes wrote:
Erm i did explain why i voted for zanfa.. i needed a vote and wanted to be sure to not get modkilled.. and i missed the deadline because TL screwed up their [*time*] thing for europe...
This mafia kill is actually very strange to me, i had a few scenarios in mind of who would be mafia if someone died.. but i never thought risk would be a target.
oh ok, I thought you said you needed a vote to not get modkilled for the moment (way before deadline) and wanted to change it later on. that is what i said... i needed a vote to not get modkilled.. so i voted for the most suspicous person back then... I probably would have chosen for a lynch if i didn't miss the deadline... (but that is void now) So now, what say you? Do you have any idea who you think thought of targeting risk?
Actually, i've no idea whatsoever.. This kill makes no sense to me.
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I've just spent half my lunch hour catching up on this and reading through... I hope you're happy 
That kill was.... unexpected. Reading back through his posts, Toad is the only person to REALLY benefit from it. I don't think Toad is that stupid, but do we have any scum around that are stupid enough to think that would work? It's such a BLATANT kill that it could mean almost anything with relation to Toads. I can't see it as unrelated though, so the options in my mind are:
1) Toads is scum. Risk was so vehement about it that killing him protects Toads, and nobody would really think Toads that dumb, so he could get away with it.
2) Someone else was trying to implicate Toads to get people off of them, which would make Skrammen scum most likely. Killing Toads would be too obvious perhaps, so framing Toads much better?
3) Risk only brought a case against ONE other person, which was against Harbinger. Perhaps killing someone not too obvious to keep people off himself.
However every explanation both prior to Risk's death and since then seems to include Toad or Skrammen as being red as an option. If one is red the other is almost certainly green, but at this point it is just far too unlikely that neither of them are red.
Once I'm home from work and not on lunchbreak I'll pull up Harbinger's post history as well, see what gems are hiding there, because of point 3, unless someone beats me to it. It's definately something worth looking into, especially as he was a part of the Skrammen "bandwagon". I know we have 48 hours, but I think initially at least we should put some focus on these guys. If we're so spread out like Day 1 we'll end up with a no-lynch, and I think I definately made a mistake not switching to Skrammen Day 1. Initially I was far more suspicious of Toads, but they're almost 50/50 now, and having the information from one of them would have made today a lot easier for us.
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I jus reread the whole thread and i'm going to post a hard statement here.
Ciryandor - Toadesstern - Drem903
These 3 are referring to each other all the time, without direct accusations. This leaves me to think that they don't want eachother lynched.. but wan to have a backup of posts that do kinda disconnect them. There is something really fishy between those 3. I'm willing to go on a vote on one of these three for sure.
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I already voted for drem :p
So your list of 3 people is supposed to tell us we're mafia or just suspicious?. All 3 mafia is nearly impossible, while suspicious sure is possible. Just ask yourself why should I vote for drem if both of us are mafia?
Same goes for ciry. He was the guy he proposed voting for drem in the first place. Why should he do so if both are mafia? If ciry's mafia than drem's town and probably vice versa.
Additionally I would not tell people that I think ciry is green because the very moment I would flip red you'd know ciry is probably red too. That's a very nooby mistake for mafia and it's easy as shit for town to look up what a confirmed mafia (because he was lynched and flipped red) said about other people in retroperspective.
But yeah I'm all for a drem vote right now since I'm honestly considering skrammen to be town :p
The problem with skrammen and me is, that convincing some or even a majority of town is not going to be enough. You either have to lynch us (or just one of us, if your first lynch got a mafia and you believe that only one of us can be red because both red is stupid) or make sure noone who truely is town votes for one of us. We need 6 people on a vote. If I'm able to convince let's say 2 more people and I still end up having 2 townies who vote for me we're going to have a no lynch almost certainly, because those 2 people kept voting for me. That's 2 people blocking a lynch from town + 3 mafias blocking a lynch from town = 5. We got 11 people alive and we need 6 people for a vote. So to get a lynch we would need EVERYBODY but those 2 guys + 3 mafias on the same guy. I don't think we're able to do so as the situation is way more complex than yesterday and we didn't even mangage to get a majority yesterday. If you guys are not able to get a majority either go for skrammen or me with everything you got (that is votes). Don't care what the results are, you could end up lynching a townie but you can't afford to not lynch someone and be uncertain of who is actually tricking you the whole game.
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@toad: I don't count your vote as a legit one. I understand early voting.. but that was like just 4 hours into the 48h day...
Ok i'm going for it.
##vote Toadesstern
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To be clear:
##vote Toadesstern
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btw my thoughts about that risken kill is simply outsourcing a problem:
If you guys believe that I'm green you also believe that mafia wants to see me dead at some point in the game, obviously. Why waste a KP on me if they can just kill risken and that way maybe town is lynching me for even more reason.
Worst case would be town gets it and noone lynches me, therefore only one guy killed with 1 KP. Best case would be 2 guys killed with one KP because Toad lynched me because of that risk kill.
Nothing to lose for mafia here, but it's kind of obvious as long as you believe I am truely town.
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@toad: I think all of you 3 are scum, that's why i've put you in red. There is just no other explanation if you reread the whole thread.
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that's not going to happen because at most it's 2 people being red. As mentioned, there's not point ciry or I (ok I see why you don't care for my vote) should push for drem if both are red.
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HoD, who did you expect to be dead and why? I personally expected me or Toad as the likeliest KP targets; me for having the gall to actually lay out the Skrammen lynch (and for scum to cover their vote tracks), and Toad because he would have looked like a clear town had risk not died, given his vigorous defense.
I thought the most likely killings would have been:
1) You: Have generally been very pro-town and have been promoting discussion. Killing you doesn't tell town much.
2) Chocolate: If he isn't scum, I think he is among the most likely to be blue. If scum picked up the same vibe, shooting for a blue is a good way to go. Possibly gives town some info, but if he is blue, definitely worth it for scum.
3) Zanfada or myself: I think Zanfada is town, and he hasn't been afraid to point fingers or stir discussion. Myself for the same as Zanfada. Killing one of us also doesn't seem to give town too much info.
However, in retrospect I can kinda see risk as a similar target to myself and zanfada. I thought he was more likely town than scum, but I guess since scum knew he wasn't scum, if they didn't think they could build a case against him soon, he makes for a decent kill that doesn't give a whole lot of info.
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Once I'm home from work and not on lunchbreak I'll pull up Harbinger's post history as well, see what gems are hiding there, because of point 3, unless someone beats me to it. It's definately something worth looking into, especially as he was a part of the Skrammen "bandwagon". Feel free to do so. Of particular interest to you might be my post where I pointed out I was a potential benefactor of risk's death, or my post where I stepped up to defend toad early on, if you think toad is scum, that is. Other than that I have called out Drem for his nonsensical voting, mentioned to Ciry that he left some details out of a summary post, pointed out that risk's townie priority list didn't contain scum-hunting, and called out hackle for lurking.
What I think is my single most important post:
+ Show Spoiler +Huh, that's not one of the top 3 I would have expected to be dead this morning.
Well then, let's see what this means.
Risk.nuke was the main proponent of the lynch toad campaign. Other than that he has called one of Ciry's posts suspicious, and he called a FOS on me awhile back.
So, who benefits from risk's death?
1) Toad, it removes the most ardent supporter of his lynching.
2) Skrammen, risk defended Skrammen, him flipping town upon death gives more weight to risk's defense of Skrammen. It also discredits Toad, as Toad had risk highest on his scum list. Him being wrong about that lowers the worth of his word when he accuses others of being scum.
3) Bunneh, also defended Skrammen, and is therefore indirectly helped by risk's death, although only slightly.
4) Ciry, but only if Ciry was worried about risk becoming increasingly suspect of him.
5) Myself, but, again, only if I still thought risk was suspicious of me.
6) Lurkers, if neither Skrammen nor Toad is scum, killing somebody who has spent almost all his time talking about these two makes for an amazing kill. It practically guarantees we will continue to focus on them, giving mafia another day where they don't get lynched.
I think it is clear that 1, 2, or 6 are the best candidates. 3, 4, and 5 mostly serve as potentially added bonuses, but certainly seem unlikely as main reasons. Also keep in mind, it is likely that the decision was made by scum before risk's long post before the bottom of page 17, and possibly before toad's as well. Very few people were around after those posts and prior to the night ending, and presumably scum would not leave the decision on who to shoot to a single member of their team.
So here's my opinion on the matter, Toad tends to talk too much and to talk too freely for me to think he is scum. Skrammen tends to have rather empty posts, he has done no real analysis so far, and has engaged in a decent amount of OMGUS, as collected in the spoiler.
+ Show Spoiler +
However, I, unfortunately, lack the conviction of our departed risk.nuke. I cannot say with 100% certainty that Skrammen is scum nor that Toad is Town. But here's what I think can help solve the problem, Toad and Skrammen, if you value your lives, please make a post of the following:
1) At least 2, preferably 3 people you think are scum
2) Explanations and some analysis of why you think they are scum
3) At least 2, preferably more, people you think are town, excluding yourself
4) Explanations of why you think they are town
5) What you think the goal of the risk.nuke shooting was
If we have this information from both of them, I think we will have a much clearer picture of things.
This post is getting long, but I feel the need to restate something from an earlier post of mine, thus far hacklebeast has gotten away with contributing a total of jack shit and that needs to change in a hurry.
and what I think was probably my scummiest post if you think toad is scum:
+ Show Spoiler +I don't see how toad telling people to be active even if they are blues is suspicious, it isn't like he said "dt's and medics should role-claim in the thread" or anything. He, like most of us, is simply trying to encourage activity from everyone. It also helps make it clear that you must contribute to scum-hunting as a blue if you don't want to be mistaken for scum yourself. And just to call someone out a bit, I believe Skrammen has actually said the least of anyone so far, with a total contribution of: Good morning gentlemen!]
I hope that helps you find whatever you're looking for.
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Sorry for the three posts in a row, I've kinda been responding to things I think I should respond to as I read the thread.
On November 03 2011 00:04 hyshes wrote:
I jus reread the whole thread and i'm going to post a hard statement here.
Ciryandor - Toadesstern - Drem903
These 3 are referring to each other all the time, without direct accusations. This leaves me to think that they don't want eachother lynched.. but wan to have a backup of posts that do kinda disconnect them. There is something really fishy between those 3. I'm willing to go on a vote on one of these three for sure.
....What? I'm really going to need a much more thorough analysis of how you think Ciryandor is scum. Additionally, I want to know why in the hell you think either Ciryandor or Toad could be scum if Drem is, considering Ciryandor called out Drem's posts as something to keep an eye on, and now we have Toad being the first vote of the day and placing it on Drem. I really want to hear how this makes the slightest bit of sense to you.
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##vote Toadesstern
Reasons:
1) His posts are long when a simple reply could answer the question (disregarding his analysis post on risk). As scum he's using longer posts to try and cover all possible points that could indicate him to be Mafia.
2) The only person who would benefit from Risk's death is Toad. Now, my earlier statement on that was it could be a Mafia ploy to distract us, but that would also be immediately obvious so it could be a double trick (kill risk to get suspicion on toad, but we realize that and stop focusing on toad, and then toad is mafia so it was just a convoluted trap that could work). At this point it just gets into an infinite chain of back and forth.
3) one of his earliest posts was to tell blues to post more frequently, which could have been a way to encourage the new Blue's to help the town, or (more likely) try and make them a mafia target.
Anyway, now that i'm a genuine target. As i said, my reasoning for not lynching SK was that my suspicion was not enough to risk lynching him if he's town. If Rammen was town, then we would have ended up losing two townies on day 1, leaving us with a bare majority (we would have 6 out of 10 people), which means every one of us would have to agree. The risk is that if one or two mafia make even an ok case, some town may agree with them and then we get split vote once more.
I wasn't convinced enough on SK to vote for him so i didn't. This is only my first game, so maybe that's just a nooby mistake and it's usually worth it to take a chance on the lynch, but i just didn't think it was in the town's best interest to take that chance.
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If Rammen was town, then we would have ended up losing two townies on day 1, leaving us with a bare majority (we would have 6 out of 10 people)
First hyshes posts some shitty logic, then Drem doesn't realize that according to the OP there are: 3 of 3 MAFIA remaining We would have been left with 7 out of 10 people.
What the fuck people?
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On November 03 2011 03:14 HarbingerOfDoom wrote:Sorry for the three posts in a row, I've kinda been responding to things I think I should respond to as I read the thread. Show nested quote +On November 03 2011 00:04 hyshes wrote:
I jus reread the whole thread and i'm going to post a hard statement here.
Ciryandor - Toadesstern - Drem903
These 3 are referring to each other all the time, without direct accusations. This leaves me to think that they don't want eachother lynched.. but wan to have a backup of posts that do kinda disconnect them. There is something really fishy between those 3. I'm willing to go on a vote on one of these three for sure.
....What? I'm really going to need a much more thorough analysis of how you think Ciryandor is scum. Additionally, I want to know why in the hell you think either Ciryandor or Toad could be scum if Drem is, considering Ciryandor called out Drem's posts as something to keep an eye on, and now we have Toad being the first vote of the day and placing it on Drem. I really want to hear how this makes the slightest bit of sense to you.
First of all, i don't see toads vote as a legit one. If i want to distance myself from someone but still don't want to risk him getting lynched, i would vote for him very early in the day cycle. Very little chance that that lynch is going to happen.
I know Ciryandor made a huge post about drem, but he just throws it out there. That post should atleast have ended with a firm FOS or vote on drem to be legit for me. It was to close to the deadline to not call it out.
There posting distances them from eachother, so if one of them gets lynched.. they can refer to these.
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yeah, glad I'm not the only guy who got that. I mentioned the same thing as harb about hyshes post earlier, too. I see why he is ignoring my point but ciry STARTING and PUSHING for drem just makes no sense if both are mafia while me being mafia or green isn't even important for that question.
Same with drems post. I thought we've already discussed his 3rd part. Also, I started doing these walls of text BECAUSE last time I made a small post a bunch of crazy people came allong telling me "hey you just told blues to reveil themselves" and I was sitting there thinking wtf is up with you. That's not what I said. So I made sure such a thing isn't happening again by clearifying every single fuck I posted.
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sry forgot to quote again, my post was a reply on harbs most recent post above my original I am quoting beneath
On November 03 2011 03:31 Toadesstern wrote:
yeah, glad I'm not the only guy who got that. I mentioned the same thing as harb about hyshes post earlier, too. I see why he is ignoring my point but ciry STARTING and PUSHING for drem just makes no sense if both are mafia while me being mafia or green isn't even important for that question.
Same with drems post. I thought we've already discussed his 3rd part. Also, I started doing these walls of text BECAUSE last time I made a small post a bunch of crazy people came allong telling me "hey you just told blues to reveil themselves" and I was sitting there thinking wtf is up with you. That's not what I said. So I made sure such a thing isn't happening again by clearifying every single fuck I posted.
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you know, if you guys want to lynch me for having shitty reading comprehension and screwing up the lynch day 1 for not realizing there were only 3 mafia.... then i would not blame you.
We still have a much larger majority, so it's still not the worst situation. Also, even if we did succeed, all it would take was 2 other indecisive townies to vote differently (or vote with mafia unwittingly), to have nothing done today. Either way i could have screwed up much worse, and i do apologize for making the noobiest mistake possible.
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EPT
