EPTNewbie Mini Mafia - Page 18
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risk.nuke
Sweden2825 Posts
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Chocolate
United States2350 Posts
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Erandorr
2283 Posts
 oh wait.. also : F5F5F5 <- a skill every dedicated mafia player needs! | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
![[image loading]](http://i32.photobucket.com/albums/d36/kitaman27/deadponies.jpg) Day Two risk.nuke had managed to provide refuge for the few surviving ponies in newbie-ville. They were safely hidden away, sheltered from the blood thirsty mafia. Unfortunately for him, a certain host may have tipped off the location of pony headquarters. He wasn't heard from again. risk.nuke the townie has perished! In other news, a foul smell spread across the town of newbie-ville. Nobody had bothered to bury Erandorr's rotten corpse. You have 48 hours to decide the next lynch! | ||
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risk.nuke
Sweden2825 Posts
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Drem903
United States100 Posts
Something to consider is that Mafia may have killed Risk to try and reinforce the current FOS on Toad. | ||
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Drem903
United States100 Posts
On November 02 2011 11:16 risk.nuke wrote: good luck town. We will avenge you good sir! | ||
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HarbingerOfDoom
United States508 Posts
Well then, let's see what this means. Risk.nuke was the main proponent of the lynch toad campaign. Other than that he has called one of Ciry's posts suspicious, and he called a FOS on me awhile back. So, who benefits from risk's death? 1) Toad, it removes the most ardent supporter of his lynching. 2) Skrammen, risk defended Skrammen, him flipping town upon death gives more weight to risk's defense of Skrammen. It also discredits Toad, as Toad had risk highest on his scum list. Him being wrong about that lowers the worth of his word when he accuses others of being scum. 3) Bunneh, also defended Skrammen, and is therefore indirectly helped by risk's death, although only slightly. 4) Ciry, but only if Ciry was worried about risk becoming increasingly suspect of him. 5) Myself, but, again, only if I still thought risk was suspicious of me. 6) Lurkers, if neither Skrammen nor Toad is scum, killing somebody who has spent almost all his time talking about these two makes for an amazing kill. It practically guarantees we will continue to focus on them, giving mafia another day where they don't get lynched. I think it is clear that 1, 2, or 6 are the best candidates. 3, 4, and 5 mostly serve as potentially added bonuses, but certainly seem unlikely as main reasons. Also keep in mind, it is likely that the decision was made by scum before risk's long post before the bottom of page 17, and possibly before toad's as well. Very few people were around after those posts and prior to the night ending, and presumably scum would not leave the decision on who to shoot to a single member of their team. So here's my opinion on the matter, Toad tends to talk too much and to talk too freely for me to think he is scum. Skrammen tends to have rather empty posts, he has done no real analysis so far, and has engaged in a decent amount of OMGUS, as collected in the spoiler. + Show Spoiler + Note: These are all directed at different people Not once did you FoS on me, yet you preffered to vote me instead of zanfa. You also FoS'd Ciry but claim you didnt. You seem to be a bit everywhere, throwing suspicions left and right. To me, it appears like you are trying to be a bit of an instigator while saying very little of substance. You've posted nearly as little as I have done, and you say you vote me because of lack of activity? ##Vote Chocolate And now you have decided to vote me. Did you already make up your mind before I did my post? As far as I can tell, the only thing you seem to base your suspicion on is the fact that I made a point about timezones. I think you are over-analyzing things way too hard, stop looking for something who is not there. Just stating the obvious. Why say I might red if I am scum? Well, if I was, would I tell you? Are you desperatly trying to find a reason to get me lynched, again? What about you. So far, the only thing you have done is come in, instigate somthing on someone else, defend yourself when you got under pressure only to disappear again. And here you are again. However, I, unfortunately, lack the conviction of our departed risk.nuke. I cannot say with 100% certainty that Skrammen is scum nor that Toad is Town. But here's what I think can help solve the problem, Toad and Skrammen, if you value your lives, please make a post of the following: 1) At least 2, preferably 3 people you think are scum 2) Explanations and some analysis of why you think they are scum 3) At least 2, preferably more, people you think are town, excluding yourself 4) Explanations of why you think they are town 5) What you think the goal of the risk.nuke shooting was If we have this information from both of them, I think we will have a much clearer picture of things. This post is getting long, but I feel the need to restate something from an earlier post of mine, thus far hacklebeast has gotten away with contributing a total of jack shit and that needs to change in a hurry. | ||
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HarbingerOfDoom
United States508 Posts
Your target will be informed that they have been role-blocked (even if they didn't have a night action). You do not have to use your action every night. So, if somebody was role-blocked, it would be nice to know, as the setup does not explicitly state whether or not they have one. Additionally, who, if anyone, was role-blocked would provide further information. | ||
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Ciryandor
United States3735 Posts
On November 02 2011 14:58 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: Huh, that's not one of the top 3 I would have expected to be dead this morning. Well then, let's see what this means. Risk.nuke was the main proponent of the lynch toad campaign. Other than that he has called one of Ciry's posts suspicious, and he called a FOS on me awhile back. So, who benefits from risk's death? 1) Toad, it removes the most ardent supporter of his lynching. 2) Skrammen, risk defended Skrammen, him flipping town upon death gives more weight to risk's defense of Skrammen. It also discredits Toad, as Toad had risk highest on his scum list. Him being wrong about that lowers the worth of his word when he accuses others of being scum. 3) Bunneh, also defended Skrammen, and is therefore indirectly helped by risk's death, although only slightly. 4) Ciry, but only if Ciry was worried about risk becoming increasingly suspect of him. 5) Myself, but, again, only if I still thought risk was suspicious of me. 6) Lurkers, if neither Skrammen nor Toad is scum, killing somebody who has spent almost all his time talking about these two makes for an amazing kill. It practically guarantees we will continue to focus on them, giving mafia another day where they don't get lynched. I think it is clear that 1, 2, or 6 are the best candidates. 3, 4, and 5 mostly serve as potentially added bonuses, but certainly seem unlikely as main reasons. Also keep in mind, it is likely that the decision was made by scum before risk's long post before the bottom of page 17, and possibly before toad's as well. Very few people were around after those posts and prior to the night ending, and presumably scum would not leave the decision on who to shoot to a single member of their team. So here's my opinion on the matter, Toad tends to talk too much and to talk too freely for me to think he is scum. Skrammen tends to have rather empty posts, he has done no real analysis so far, and has engaged in a decent amount of OMGUS, as collected in the spoiler. + Show Spoiler + Note: These are all directed at different people Not once did you FoS on me, yet you preffered to vote me instead of zanfa. You also FoS'd Ciry but claim you didnt. You seem to be a bit everywhere, throwing suspicions left and right. To me, it appears like you are trying to be a bit of an instigator while saying very little of substance. You've posted nearly as little as I have done, and you say you vote me because of lack of activity? ##Vote Chocolate And now you have decided to vote me. Did you already make up your mind before I did my post? As far as I can tell, the only thing you seem to base your suspicion on is the fact that I made a point about timezones. I think you are over-analyzing things way too hard, stop looking for something who is not there. Just stating the obvious. Why say I might red if I am scum? Well, if I was, would I tell you? Are you desperatly trying to find a reason to get me lynched, again? What about you. So far, the only thing you have done is come in, instigate somthing on someone else, defend yourself when you got under pressure only to disappear again. And here you are again. However, I, unfortunately, lack the conviction of our departed risk.nuke. I cannot say with 100% certainty that Skrammen is scum nor that Toad is Town. But here's what I think can help solve the problem, Toad and Skrammen, if you value your lives, please make a post of the following: 1) At least 2, preferably 3 people you think are scum 2) Explanations and some analysis of why you think they are scum 3) At least 2, preferably more, people you think are town, excluding yourself 4) Explanations of why you think they are town 5) What you think the goal of the risk.nuke shooting was If we have this information from both of them, I think we will have a much clearer picture of things. This post is getting long, but I feel the need to restate something from an earlier post of mine, thus far hacklebeast has gotten away with contributing a total of jack shit and that needs to change in a hurry. HoD, who did you expect to be dead and why? I personally expected me or Toad as the likeliest KP targets; me for having the gall to actually lay out the Skrammen lynch (and for scum to cover their vote tracks), and Toad because he would have looked like a clear town had risk not died, given his vigorous defense. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
I just don't understand what risk did the last couple of days... again, he's telling me I'm only focussing on one guy (him) while completly ignoring everything else. The reason I did that (also, I did not do that, I still talked about other possibilites, see my big post abaut skrammen/me/zanfa/risk being mafia or not? Also I was defending myself and did not ignore someone blaming me just to go on and say "hey let's lynch risk") was because HE did it in the first place with me. That in combination with all that fuss he wrote made me think he's 100% sure scum. To answer Harbs posts I'm really not sure right now... I think mafia did us a great favor with lynching risk because that way we don't end up argueing who is mafia without getting someone killed. Right now we at least now he was green although I did not like what he did. I'm not even sure about skrammen anymore. If risk was town, risk REALLY thought skrammen is town. However risk ruined day1 with his vote on me. He has to know that a nolynch is the worst possible thing for town (except killing blues I guess) since it's leaving town completly in the dark and that is the very thing we want to change/avoid, yet he blocked the lynch, which just did not make sense at all. My list of mafias would have been: 1) Risk (I explained that enough I guess) 2) Probably drem + Show Spoiler + On November 02 2011 11:50 Drem903 wrote: What would scum gain from killing risk? Toad was the only person who ever really targeted Risk, but would he really (if Toad was mafia) target the person that only he had reason to target? That would make it really obvious that he was, in fact, scum. Something to consider is that Mafia may have killed Risk to try and reinforce the current FOS on Toad. I'm not sure if mafia would do such a thing. They HAVE to be aware of the fact that it does look like that. So my guess is they killed risk to make it look the way you said, obviously that's because I know I'm not mafia :p + he was one of the guys blocking a lynch on day1 who did not vote for men (he voted for zanfa, blocking a lynch, saying later on that was stupid and he did not do it for a reason). However, we know risk turned out to be green which changes a lot. You guys have to either lynch skrammen or me to get some information because you can' afford that one of us might be a mafia playing some tricks on you in this thread twisting the conversation the way he wants and makeing you get a nolynch again because everyone's uncertain. So no matter what, you need to get a lynch today. I'm just afraid both possible lynches could be a townie. Frankly what Skrammen answered did not seem to be mafia, except for the fact that it's very little. What he said was rightm although it was obvious but he did not try to make you think something weird with wrong logic. Maybe it really is skrammen, drem + either hyshes or bunneh or hackle but I don't think it's that easy (again, from my point of view!). If Skrammen turns out to be green we got to rethink about the wagon on day1. Ciry has been doing great the very first day and was definitly on my top5 (something like that) town list and he still is. However if skrammen really IS green that's not exactly a good sign for ciry and everyone else who voted for skrammen. If I flip green a couple of guys attacking me probably are red and we already know that that rule is flawed, since risk turned out to be green. Right now I'd say drem + one of the three above is mafia or skrammen + someone we don't have in mind right now. If I had to make a list right now with 3 names it would be drem, hackle, skrammen. Skrammen is kind of a protection move for me :p I think he's a coinflip at most for us. I said earlier he's a 30-40% scum for me (something along those lines) and what he said after that lynch attempt did not make it go higher. If I had to make a list of 3 townies I'd go for xsksc, Ciryandor, Zanfada I'm really having trouble here. xsksc because he admitted that he thinks I'm green somewhere the last couple of days. I think a mafia would have pushed for me. Same for ciry and zanfa, they both would have had an easy time screwing my game telling people "hey guys, we totally know Toad from the last game and this is nothing like the way he played last game. Last game he was a townie/blue => he probably is red". Those 3 are followed by a bunch of people who I think are town because they made some posts that made them look green (like your most recent harb) but I'm not entirely sure as at this point of the game with so much conspiracy going on it would be easy for mafia to look green. As a finishing line: We do need a lynch today, we can not let town be in the dark for another cycle without getting information who actually is fooling around with us, so make a lynch happen guys! | ||
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xsksc
United Kingdom1044 Posts
This kill on risk is interesting, not what I expected at all. It makes toad look guilty as hell, as risk was leading the campaign against toad. HOWEVER mafia might use this to their advantage and kill risk to frame toad, but then again... if toad is mafia and they know that we'll think that it might be a frame, they might shoot him anyway to get risk off toads back. Could be mind games, could be a frame, I don't know, I'll wait and see how toad is posting today before I form my opinions. Harbringer makes a good point about lurkers benefiting from this kill. I want to hear from hackle especially, 2 posts since the game started is some pretty hardcore lurking. What do you think about risk being shot? Do you still stand by your toad vote on day 1? | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
##Vote Drem903 Both hyshes and drem voted for zanfa which is just plain bullshit. I could have seen how people wanted to vote for me after I got a couple of votes but I can't see how you can leave your vote on zanfa knowing that it's helping mafia because we're getting a no-lynch. Hyshes however looks town from time to time while drem just got this stupid vote without explaining why he stayed with zanfa (same goes for hyshes) and nothing really that looks like town. If drem shows up and actually starts to talk I'm willing to reconsider my thoughts here. If you guys are going to lynch someone else who's on my top5 or 6 of my mafia list and are able to get a couple of votes on him I'm reconsidering it as well. | ||
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xsksc
United Kingdom1044 Posts
On November 02 2011 18:30 Toadesstern wrote: oh and I'm already placing my vote. I don't want you guys to vote 8 hours before the deadline. Keep in mind that a couple of guys here are from europe. Deadline is 03:00 am for me and I have to wake up at 6:50 in the morning. So placing votes late on the second day of this cycle might help spreading votes and therefore we might end up having another no lynch. I don't want that to happen I thought we had 48 hours? I'm also from europe and start the morning around the same time so I have to vote in advance too | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
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hyshes
Belgium428 Posts
This mafia kill is actually very strange to me, i had a few scenarios in mind of who would be mafia if someone died.. but i never thought risk would be a target. | ||
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hyshes
Belgium428 Posts
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On November 02 2011 19:05 hyshes wrote: Erm i did explain why i voted for zanfa.. i needed a vote and wanted to be sure to not get modkilled.. and i missed the deadline because TL screwed up their [*time*] thing for europe... This mafia kill is actually very strange to me, i had a few scenarios in mind of who would be mafia if someone died.. but i never thought risk would be a target. oh ok, I thought you said you needed a vote to not get modkilled for the moment (way before deadline) and wanted to change it later on. | ||
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hyshes
Belgium428 Posts
On November 02 2011 19:13 Toadesstern wrote: oh ok, I thought you said you needed a vote to not get modkilled for the moment (way before deadline) and wanted to change it later on. that is what i said... i needed a vote to not get modkilled.. so i voted for the most suspicous person back then... I probably would have chosen for a lynch if i didn't miss the deadline... (but that is void now) | ||
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Ciryandor
United States3735 Posts
On November 02 2011 19:06 hyshes wrote: btw Ciryandor , are you going to spend post #2000 in a newbie mafia game? I didn't even notice. 2500 much better milestone IMO, then next is 5000. | ||
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