A note on sign-ups: You may only sign up if you have three or fewer games played. If you have any questions about how the game works, feel free to send me a message.
Mafia is an educated guessing game of epic proportions. The objective of the game is to lynch or kill all mafia members before they outnumber the rest of the town. It's much like a game of poker because mafia members are also part of the town during the day and may manipulate the vote to their liking. If the mafia at any time outnumber or equal the townspeople, they win. The town's goal is to lynch all the members of the mafia.
The game is typically very active, so the thread will get big quickly. However, it is essential to read the thread to play the game. If you do not have the time or patience to read the whole thread, please do not play. By becoming inactive, you ruin the game for everyone else.
Rules:
Cheating: Cheating includes (but is not limited to): 1. Posting after death. You may have one polite goodbye post, but it may not contain any potentially game-changing information. 2. Ruining the game by doing something like hand out your mafia's member list to the town. 3. Logging on to someone else's account to get their role or looking over someone's shoulder to get their role. 4. Comparing role PM times to determine roles. 5. Posting screenshots of your inbox. 6. Posting any PM you receive from a host. 7. Getting yourself modkilled to help your team. Your non-majority-decided death may not be used as a bargaining chip. 8. Signing up more than once using smurf accounts. 9. Betting items outside of the game in exchange for in-game benefits. 10. Sharing accounts with other players. Only you may post on your account. Cheating is not tolerated here. The punishment will be severe.
Posting:
Mod Font: This is mod font. It is reserved for moderators. Please do not use it.
Question Font: This is question font. Use it to ask the moderators questions about the rules. Please do us a favor and read the rules before you ask anything.
Activity: You must post in this thread once per day/night cycle and vote every day while you are alive. If you fail to do so, you will be modkilled.
Smurfs: Please contact me if you plan to create a smurf account. Keep in mind, this is a new players only game.
Spam: Spam is not tolerated, nor is any off-topic material. Do not discuss Proleague here. Do not talk about Starcraft II here. Play Mafia here.
Editing: Editing is not allowed for any reason. Editing will result in a warning. After that, you will be modkilled. This is the one part of the site where it is okay to be double posting, even triple-posting. While I ask for everybody to post as concisely as possible, post again if you have to edit anything.
Inappropriate posts: If you want to post something insulting or inappropriate and know the TL mods would have a problem with it elsewhere, don't post it here. If you do, a host will warn you or modkill you and request that you be banned from future games. The hosts have the final say on what is inappropriate. If you do not like how someone is talking to you, please PM a host, Flamewheel or Mig before involving the TL staff. If you are unsatisfied with how the situation is resolved, then you can appeal to the TL staff normally.
Reporting posts: The report button is a nice feature for regular TL, but not for this forum. We prefer to deal with things in house if possible to avoid confusion among the TL staff. If you have a problem with how someone is posting, talk to the host, co-host, Flamewheel or Mig before using your report button. Please do not use your report button for anything other than inappropriate posts which you feel are not being dealt with adequately.
Ban discussions: Please wait until this game is over to talk about modkills and bans resulting from this game.
Play to win. This means you play your best to help your team win while you are alive and in the game. However, this does not mean that you should try to win by being a jerk to the other players so they all want to quit playing.
This also means that you cannot leave the game without a good reason without a ban. These situations will be dealt with on a case by case basis. PM your host if you need to leave the game.
You have been warned.
Voting rules:
1. Voting is done in this thread. Please keep votes here, and only vote here. Do not PM me your vote. 2. Please vote in the following format: ##Vote Qatol. Votes not done in the correct fashion will not be counted. I will update vote counts whenever I get the chance. 3. No conditional voting. 4. You may not vote for yourself. You may not vote for anyone dead or outside the game. 5. This game follows Extended Majority Lynch Rules. Majority = #of players remaining in the game/2) (rounded down) + 1. Unlike in traditional majority lynch, the lynch is NOT decided the moment majority is reached. Instead, only the final vote count matters. If there is no majority at the deadline, the day ends with a no lynch. Non-voters will be modkilled for failure to vote. 6. Voting is mandatory. You may (NOT) abstain.
Signups:
This game is open to new players only this means three or fewer games played here on TL
Game-specific rules:
Modkills: This game follows the TL Mafia Ban List. If you are modkilled, your punishment will go beyond being eliminated from this game. Please refer to it for questions about your punishment. If you want to use this game to sit out your ban, please PM Flamewheel or post in the Ban List.
Replacements This game uses replacements. Replacements will be made in the game until I say so. If a player is modkilled during the designated time, then they will be replaced by a player on the replacement list.
Clues: There are NO clues.
PMs PMs are not allowed in this game.
Time Cycle: This game will follow a 48 hour day/24 hour night cycle. In case I am not able to post around deadline, any votes after the 48 hour mark will not count and the game will be put on halt until the night post is up. Currently the deadline is 02:00 GMT (+00:00), but that is subject to change. Credits: Thanks to anyone who has ever hosted a game. This list grows ever longer. Thanks to everyone who helped balance this game.
If you have not read all the rules, please go back and do so. Thanks!!
There are 9 town and 3 mafia in this setup. The following roles may or may not be present in this game:
Roles:
Townie You are just a normal player with no night actions. All you can do is vote during the day. But the town needs you to win so be active!
Detective You can make night investigations. Once per night you may ask for the alignment of any player. Alignments are either Town or Mafia. You are always sane. Alignment checks are returned at the beginning of the next day.
Medic You have the power to save lives. Once per night you can watch a player. If your target is attacked, you will block one hit aimed at them. If you make a successful save, you are notified of the save. You cannot save yourself.
Mafia Goon Your goal is to eliminate everyone else in the town. Your ability, as a group, is killing off whomever you decide on at night and knowing the role of each other player in your mafia. You may kill your own members. Mafia killing power is always 1 until there are no mafia remaining.
Roleblocker You are a mafia member who has the ability to prevent a player from performing a night action. Once per night, you may roleblock a player, and your target will be unable to perform night actions for that night. Your target will be informed that they have been roleblocked (even if they didn't have a night action). You do not have to use your action every night.
Remember, new players only. That means 3 or fewer games played. To sign-up, just type "/in" in the thread
1. risk.nuke the townie, Shot night 1 2. HarbingerOfDoom the townie, Endgamed 3. Toadesstern the townie, Shot night 3 4. Zanfada the townie, Shot night 4 5. xsksc the mafia goon 6. Ciryandor the mafia goon 7. sermokala (Replaced hacklebeast), the townie, Lynched Day 5 8. Skrammen the medic, Endgamed 9. hyshes the townie, Lynched day 2 10. Drem903 the townie, Endgamed 11. IMABUNNEH the mafia goon 12. Chocolate the townie, Lynched day 3
Replacement List 1. Dubzex 2. 3.
3 of 3 MAFIA remaining: ? of ? Goons alive ? of ? Roleblockers alive
0 of 9 TOWN remaining: ? of ? Medics alive ? of ? Detectives alive
Welcome to Newbie Mini Mafia you are a Vanilla Townie. You have no special powers against the mafia except your mind, your vote and your voice. Use those three things to hunt down the mafia before they destroy the town.
Welcome to Newbie Mini Mafia you are a Detective. You love watching people sleep at night. By doing so, you can somehow discover the alignment of one player per night cycle. Just PM me who you wish to investigate and your report will be given to you the following day.
Welcome to Newbie Mini Mafia you are a Medic. Since the mafia team never knows enough to go for the head shot, every night you may visit someone, and if they are shot you patch them up, just like new! Only the medic is notified of a successful save. Just PM me who you want to visit every night.
Kita, two things, 1.) Put me down as a coach 2.) I'll be linking this game in my recruitment post (which will go up by Wednesday), so you shouldn't have much of an issue filling it up.
On October 24 2011 02:27 GMarshal wrote: Kita, two things, 1.) Put me down as a coach 2.) I'll be linking this game in my recruitment post (which will go up by Wednesday), so you shouldn't have much of an issue filling it up.
/in right now since I don't know when the next normal game is supposed to start. After the last game I told myself to not join another newby-game and wanted to join a big game. However those turn out to be quite complicated (just look at all those roles ) so I might want to join this if this turns out to be okayish.
The next normal mafia is going to start after texas mafia anyways, which hasn't started yet, so I should be fine joining this and afterwards the normal mafia game, since it's probably not going to start before this ended, right?
On October 25 2011 00:39 Toadesstern wrote: /in right now since I don't know when the next normal game is supposed to start. After the last game I told myself to not join another newby-game and wanted to join a big game. However those turn out to be quite complicated (just look at all those roles ) so I might want to join this if this turns out to be okayish.
The next normal mafia is going to start after texas mafia anyways, which hasn't started yet, so I should be fine joining this and afterwards the normal mafia game, since it's probably not going to start before this ended, right?
Ideally this game will run more smoothly than the previous mini. As far as I can tell, the next normal is still a little while off so yes, you should be fine if you're interested.
On October 25 2011 00:39 Toadesstern wrote: /in right now since I don't know when the next normal game is supposed to start. After the last game I told myself to not join another newby-game and wanted to join a big game. However those turn out to be quite complicated (just look at all those roles ) so I might want to join this if this turns out to be okayish.
The next normal mafia is going to start after texas mafia anyways, which hasn't started yet, so I should be fine joining this and afterwards the normal mafia game, since it's probably not going to start before this ended, right?
Ideally this game will run more smoothly than the previous mini. As far as I can tell, the next normal is still a little while off so yes, you should be fine if you're interested.
It would require active sabotage to turn out any *worse* than the previous mini...
On October 25 2011 00:39 Toadesstern wrote: /in right now since I don't know when the next normal game is supposed to start. After the last game I told myself to not join another newby-game and wanted to join a big game. However those turn out to be quite complicated (just look at all those roles ) so I might want to join this if this turns out to be okayish.
The next normal mafia is going to start after texas mafia anyways, which hasn't started yet, so I should be fine joining this and afterwards the normal mafia game, since it's probably not going to start before this ended, right?
Ideally this game will run more smoothly than the previous mini. As far as I can tell, the next normal is still a little while off so yes, you should be fine if you're interested.
It would require active sabotage to turn out any *worse* than the previous mini...
On October 25 2011 00:39 Toadesstern wrote: /in right now since I don't know when the next normal game is supposed to start. After the last game I told myself to not join another newby-game and wanted to join a big game. However those turn out to be quite complicated (just look at all those roles ) so I might want to join this if this turns out to be okayish.
The next normal mafia is going to start after texas mafia anyways, which hasn't started yet, so I should be fine joining this and afterwards the normal mafia game, since it's probably not going to start before this ended, right?
Ideally this game will run more smoothly than the previous mini. As far as I can tell, the next normal is still a little while off so yes, you should be fine if you're interested.
It would require active sabotage to turn out any *worse* than the previous mini...
On October 25 2011 16:59 Zanfada wrote: /in i want to win this one
On October 25 2011 18:58 Ciryandor wrote: /in
I'm going to get my ass killed in day 1 again, no doubt about that.
At least two people who actually played the last game. And as long as ciry gets killed on day 1 I'm alive on day 2. And if you don't get killed on day 1 I'm going to get you lynched because your obviously scum! :p Just kidding, but it's going to be awesome to know a couple of people and how they play.
You have to advertise outside of the secret mafia forum if you want a full game. Newbies almost by definition don't know this forum is here. Look for our other threads in Sports and Games and make a thread like that. The TL mods are receptive to us advertising from time to time as long as we don't do it too often and we aren't too obnoxious about it.
Edit: never mind, it seems GMarshal is on top of it. Yay reading!
On October 26 2011 01:10 Cyber_Cheese wrote: if we change it to 5- i can /in
Sorry , newbie games always work like this.
I wasn't actually serious, I'm going for Callers game anyway. If there isn't going to be a problem with filling it, I recommend that you consider making it bigger
Recruitment post is probably delayed till Friday when I'l actually have time to cobble everything together. If I'm not distracted by shiny things, which is a very real possibility.
I'm not sure why I'm posting this in this thread, but I thought you guys might want to know.
Curu as the vote counting bi respectable Co-Host of this game, I would like you to stop spamming this thread. Also I want to try out the cool blue font I am allowed to use.
Curu as the vote counting bi respectable Co-Host of this game, I would like you to stop spamming this thread. Also I want to try out the cool blue font I am allowed to use.
Hi, never played a mafia game before. I read the lotr one and it intrigued me. I'd like to play this but I really dont know the terminology etc, is there a particular site for information on mafia?
On October 26 2011 19:26 xsksc wrote: Hi, never played a mafia game before. I read the lotr one and it intrigued me. I'd like to play this but I really dont know the terminology etc, is there a particular site for information on mafia?
This is a newbie game and you're not required to be all too savvy at all. Most other people likely wont be. You can read all the information you need in the OP, and if you still feel confused you can read Ver's Mafia XXX analysis and ask hosts/coaches.
On October 26 2011 19:26 xsksc wrote: Hi, never played a mafia game before. I read the lotr one and it intrigued me. I'd like to play this but I really dont know the terminology etc, is there a particular site for information on mafia?
This is a newbie game and you're not required to be all too savvy at all. Most other people likely wont be. You can read all the information you need in the OP, and if you still feel confused you can read Ver's Mafia XXX analysis and ask hosts/coaches.
May I join? Note that I used to play TL Mafia (maybe 2 years ago) and would like to come back. While I don't really qualify as a "newbie", but I am non the less really rusty and if you check my past games you will find that I was pretty bad at this game 2 years ago anyways. If I am eligible to join the game, I would love to!
On October 27 2011 01:46 Cyber_Cheese wrote: Maybe all these guides should be linked in the OP
Done.
On October 27 2011 05:52 Abenson wrote: May I join? Note that I used to play TL Mafia (maybe 2 years ago) and would like to come back. While I don't really qualify as a "newbie", but I am non the less really rusty and if you check my past games you will find that I was pretty bad at this game 2 years ago anyways. If I am eligible to join the game, I would love to!
/in
As much as I'd like to fill this game, if I make exceptions for one person for the three game requirement, I'd have to make exceptions for everyone. Sorry!
I'm going to get my ass killed in day 1 again, no doubt about that.
Sorry Ciryandor, 3 games or less requirement. I think you've graduated from newbie land
Oh, DAMN, I thought 3 games meant 3 games completed (WaW+LotR+last Newbie) or less, i.e. after this mini I'd be completely out of newbie land; turns out it's for people with 0-2 games finished. Then /out for me if that's the case.
On October 25 2011 18:58 Ciryandor wrote: Oh, DAMN, I thought 3 games meant 3 games completed (WaW+LotR+last Newbie) or less, i.e. after this mini I'd be completely out of newbie land; turns out it's for people with 0-2 games finished. Then /out for me if that's the case.
Oh sorry about that! I was thinking you had played four games because of Werewolves, without remembering you were the host of that game. You're still eligible if you're still interested.
On October 28 2011 00:26 TheFerryman wrote: I've *technically* only played in one game...
You're beyond hope.
Why are you saying that? I played with him in that one game and he was not *that* bad.To say he is hopeless *must* be hurting vis feelings *quite* a bit
On October 28 2011 06:07 Drem903 wrote: /in No experience at all playing mafia, so hopefully i don't screw this up for anyone
Don't sweat it! just read some of the material linked in the OP/thread and you will do fine. Also for this game you are not alone, just PM one of the coaches listed in the OP and they will help you with general gameplay. I think kitaman has something he is going to do with us though, so ill let him explain how thats going to work.
go start it already. and dont get modkilled guise!!! vote&post dont be scared! its not like everyone is watching you because our big game doesnt start or anything like that ;-)
On October 28 2011 07:26 supersoft wrote: lol why is everyone a coach? are coaches allowed to coach more than one player?
yes... otherwise its really inefficient
okay so you're only allowed to give general tips. thats pretty lame :D
You clearly haven't mastered the fine art of coaching, its not up to the coach to do the scumhunting for the player, that doesn't help them improve, the coach 1.) gives advice and 2.) listens to the players arguments, and fights or supports them on their own merits.
Its not up to the coach to say "I think Kita is scum", rather its up to the player to say "hey, GMarshal, I thin Qatol is mafia for A, B and C" and its up to the coach to say "gee, I think A is a null tell and C is WIFOM, but B can be developed further, and have you considered D and E?"
Hmm GM was that recruitment post in MLP thread the one you meant to make all along or? It might be beneficial to our player base if this game were bigger or another newbies game gets hosted alongside it if not. Edit: This is called a newbie mafia specifically, so the latter would be the better choice.
On October 24 2011 00:35 kitaman27 wrote: Time Cycle: This game will follow a 48 hour day/24 hour night cycle. In case I am not able to post around deadline, any votes after the 48 hour mark will not count and the game will be put on halt until the night post is up. Currently the deadline is 02:00 GMT (+00:00), but that is subject to change.
This could be a good time to run through the use of colour.
On October 28 2011 09:00 IMABUNNEH wrote: Is the day/night cycles in real time, so 1 per real life day? Couldn't find it posted anywhere, either I'm blind, stupid, or a bit of both perhaps :D
Questions about the setup/game should be asked in green, like this. Kita, you have access to the sacred blue text, why don't you use it more liberally? So the mods can easily see it while looking through the game. It doesn't have to be a mod that
On October 24 2011 00:35 kitaman27 wrote:
Posting:
Mod Font: This is mod font. It is reserved for moderators. Please do not use it.
Question Font: This is question font. Use it to ask the moderators questions about the rules. Please do us a favor and read the rules before you ask anything.
Red can be used as much as you want, but is best reserved for the things you want to draw attention to. When using colour use bold over the coloured words, or they look piddly like this... Isn't this better?
Oh and just as a general thing, use the search function on page 1 if you have a question at the very least, believe me it saved me from asking quite a few dumb questions so far ^_^
On October 28 2011 09:00 IMABUNNEH wrote: Is the day/night cycles in real time, so 1 per real life day? Couldn't find it posted anywhere, either I'm blind, stupid, or a bit of both perhaps :D
Questions about the setup/game should be asked in green, like this. Kita, you have access to the sacred blue text, why don't you use it more liberally? So the mods can easily see it while looking through the game. It doesn't have to be a mod that
Mod Font: This is mod font. It is reserved for moderators. Please do not use it.
Question Font: This is question font. Use it to ask the moderators questions about the rules. Please do us a favor and read the rules before you ask anything.
Red can be used as much as you want, but is best reserved for the things you want to draw attention to. When using colour use bold over the coloured words, or they look piddly like this... Isn't this better?
Oh and just as a general thing, use the search function on page 1 if you have a question at the very least, believe me it saved me from asking quite a few dumb questions so far ^_^
I Vigi'd Kita so I could have the blue font all by myself.
On October 28 2011 10:26 Cyber_Cheese wrote: This could be a good time to run through the use of colour.
On October 28 2011 09:00 IMABUNNEH wrote: Is the day/night cycles in real time, so 1 per real life day? Couldn't find it posted anywhere, either I'm blind, stupid, or a bit of both perhaps :D
Questions about the setup/game should be asked in green, like this. Kita, you have access to the sacred blue text, why don't you use it more liberally? So the mods can easily see it while looking through the game. It doesn't have to be a mod that
On October 24 2011 00:35 kitaman27 wrote:
Posting:
Mod Font: This is mod font. It is reserved for moderators. Please do not use it.
Question Font: This is question font. Use it to ask the moderators questions about the rules. Please do us a favor and read the rules before you ask anything.
Red can be used as much as you want, but is best reserved for the things you want to draw attention to. When using colour use bold over the coloured words, or they look piddly like this... Isn't this better?
Oh and just as a general thing, use the search function on page 1 if you have a question at the very least, believe me it saved me from asking quite a few dumb questions so far ^_^
I Vigi'd Kita so I could have the blue font all by myself.
This could be a good time to run through the use of colour.
On October 28 2011 09:00 IMABUNNEH wrote: Is the day/night cycles in real time, so 1 per real life day? Couldn't find it posted anywhere, either I'm blind, stupid, or a bit of both perhaps :D
Questions about the setup/game should be asked in green, like this. Kita, you have access to the sacred blue text, why don't you use it more liberally? So the mods can easily see it while looking through the game. It doesn't have to be a mod that
On October 24 2011 00:35 kitaman27 wrote:
Posting:
Mod Font: This is mod font. It is reserved for moderators. Please do not use it.
Question Font: This is question font. Use it to ask the moderators questions about the rules. Please do us a favor and read the rules before you ask anything.
Red can be used as much as you want, but is best reserved for the things you want to draw attention to. When using colour use bold over the coloured words, or they look piddly like this... Isn't this better?
Oh and just as a general thing, use the search function on page 1 if you have a question at the very least, believe me it saved me from asking quite a few dumb questions so far ^_^
Thanks Also can't believe I missed that super obvious part in the first post. Must pay more attention from now on!
On October 28 2011 11:24 hacklebeast wrote: What does the filter do? I want to hit it, but I'm afraid that it will make it so I'll never see another post by that person again.
the filter button is amazing.
It changes the thread so all you see is that person's posts. This allows you to quickly sift through all the posts that player has made in a game, and perform post by post analysis. It is important not to get too much into it though, as a lot of posts are context specific.
On October 28 2011 11:24 hacklebeast wrote: What does the filter do? I want to hit it, but I'm afraid that it will make it so I'll never see another post by that person again.
It shows all the posts by that person in the thread, its a nifty feature nagzul gifted us with which makes analyzing people a lot easier ^_^
On October 28 2011 11:24 hacklebeast wrote: What does the filter do? I want to hit it, but I'm afraid that it will make it so I'll never see another post by that person again.
It shows all the posts by that person in the thread, its a nifty feature nagzul gifted us with which makes analyzing people a lot easier ^_^
The number of times I've went to filter people in non-mafia threads.... I actually think more of the forum should have it, eg. for filtering Drazerk in the LR threads, because he bosses them up.
If anyone is interested, I can create a private observer thread on QT to discuss this game as it goes along. Newbies who aren't in the game and want to learn and other veterans who can help with guiding them are especially welcome.
Just throw me a pm, if like 3 people are up for it we'll be analysing the game from the outside.
On October 28 2011 19:18 Palmar wrote: If anyone is interested, I can create a private observer thread on QT to discuss this game as it goes along. Newbies who aren't in the game and want to learn and other veterans who can help with guiding them are especially welcome.
Just throw me a pm, if like 3 people are up for it we'll be analysing the game from the outside.
On October 28 2011 19:18 Palmar wrote: If anyone is interested, I can create a private observer thread on QT to discuss this game as it goes along. Newbies who aren't in the game and want to learn and other veterans who can help with guiding them are especially welcome.
Just throw me a pm, if like 3 people are up for it we'll be analysing the game from the outside.
Going to laugh at how much we suck? :D
Not at all, there's something to learn from all games and observing can be just as fun as playing. There are usually observer QTs and/or dead QTs for most games
oh btw: My father got 60 today so maaaaybe I'm not going to post a hell lot tomorrow since there's going to be a party, but other than that I'm fine. Just don't get a fucking billion votes on me like last game becaue I'm not posting that much on day1 (that is day 1 in realtime!). Don't know why, but hosts somehow know when to not start a game , happened last game, too :p
Toad, Zan, I've played with the both of you before, so you probably have a good idea of how town should play. Town will sink like the last time if people don't start talking.
It was a sunny day in newbie-ville. GMarshal was dancing in the street singing tales of rainbows and friendship. Suddenly, he was brutally murdered. His ponies too. There was a lot of blood and gore and stuff.
With the death of the evil cult leader, the brainwashing spell had been lifted. GreYMisT could suddenly think clearly now. He decided to pursue a more interesting hobby, ditching the ponies for the inanimate objects club.
wherebugsgo was the first to arrive on the scene. After performing mouth-to-mouth with the slain ponies, he brought out his defibrillator, only to be electrocuted in the pool of blood.
Curu next discovered the crime scene. He almost pitied the humans and their violent ways. Then a bunch of orcs showed up and trampled him to death.
GMarshal the cult leader has been put out of his misery. GreYMisT the cultist has begun worshiping rocks (they're minerals!). wherebugsgo the CPR Doctor has come to a shocking end. Curufin, Prince of the Noldor was not as immortal as he thought. erandorr also died, but was unworthy of a death scene.
You have 49 hours to decide the lynch. (Had to push out the day post a bit early tonight) Good luck!
Come on guys, don't be afraid, start posting ^.^ I know it is very hard to get a game going , but if you have trouble then there is always a nice coach out there to help you figure this out
My god! We've lost 2 blues and the game just started! At least the cult (or should I call it a colt?) was toppled. Oh, and I guess we lost Erandorr too. Meh.
And sorry for the relative quiet, but I am guessing most people were in a similar situation of it's a Saturday evening before Halloween, and were therefore not near their computers.
This might be a question for a coach, but what's the normal day 1 protocol in a game like this with no real planning phase? Use a RNG to decide a lynch target to get people talking to get a better idea of who is scummy? No lynch day 1? Or the other mostly random method of SC2 UMS mafia method and lynch based on name? Another method I am neglecting?
Regardless, I know getting discussion going is better for town than silence so...yeah. Let's hear some thoughts/ideas people.
Day 1 it is very important not to let the mafia lurk and hide in the background. So we have to preasure them and force everyone to interact. If you look at the last mini mafia town lost because of inactivity. So we can't have anyone be inactive.
I guess to get things start hacklebeast hasn't posted anything yet. so until he speaks up or a better target comes along
Good morning. That's a messy end wherebugsgo, sorry to hear about it.
On October 30 2011 14:42 Zanfada wrote: Day 1 it is very important not to let the mafia lurk and hide in the background. So we have to preasure them and force everyone to interact. If you look at the last mini mafia town lost because of inactivity. So we can't have anyone be inactive.
Please don't be afraid to post guys, if town is inactive it only helps scum lurk and get away with killing us all off.
On October 30 2011 11:27 Drem903 wrote: Whoever killed GMarshal must hate friendship, quite a bit.. and ponies. He is probably the worst type of scum to ever exist.
On October 30 2011 13:48 Drem903 wrote: using extensive analysis, and some complex theory. I have decided to blame xsksc for the murder, because his name is impossible to pronounce,
Hahaha nice analysis Drem, (I can see you put a lot of time and effort into it), but the name is impossible to pronounce because its just random letters, are you trying to imply I hate friendship and ponies just because of my name? T_T
If you're telling the truth that you're name really is just a random assortment of levels, then i will no longer blame you. I had assumed that you were possessed by some kind of devil, hence the inhuman name.
Okay, let's start with this, we've got 5 of 12 already in the thread and generally just shooting the breeze.
HoD, it's generally worth prodding people on the first day to be active so later days have enough information/statements for Town to work with and understand if one is being helpful to town or not. Sometimes it can be attributed to jitters or unfamiliarity with opponents, and people like to read on to that. This is why I want to track who's talked already.
Zanfada is doing it right, pressuring people to talk and see if they're alive and well. He's played with me before and knows the value of pushing people. :p Hacklebeast seems to be a good choice, as he's an active forumer and ought to know we've started.
Toad where are you? I expect you to start talking as well, especially given that you were DT then and couldn't really poke your head above the water so much, but had a nice game plan.
Drem and xsksc, haha that's a nice way of getting some activity up. Let's look at other people now, we have more inactives to bear down on.
In the same vein can we look at Chocolate? I like him/her/it. Yummy, definitely.
Can we have a voting thread opened, or are we all voting here?
As mentioned 2 pages earlier, my father turned 60 yesterday and I obviously had to stay at the party. Now I'm kinda back! Sooooo guyses, lets get talking. I like the fact that zanfada is posting this game. Last game there was very little until lylo, which was too late so that's awesome.
On October 30 2011 18:41 Toadesstern wrote: As mentioned 2 pages earlier, my father turned 60 yesterday and I obviously had to stay at the party. Now I'm kinda back! Sooooo guyses, lets get talking. I like the fact that zanfada is posting this game. Last game there was very little until lylo, which was too late so that's awesome.
Good good, let's prod Chocolate until he melts from the spotlight or hardens up and talks to us. LOLOLO
oh and just a hint since this is a beginners game: If you are a dt or medic don't just hide or something. First of all, that really gives you away for mafia and secondly we might end up killing our very own dt or medic because we went for a lurker who turned out to be a blue playing "let's not get any attention or I'm going to get killed by mafia". Unless your coach told you otherwise. In that case just tell him he sucks. Your awesome special powers are not going to safe the day if noones talking at all.
Okey. Gentlemen, I know what we're dealing with and it's a creature of pure evil. However my #1 got noobed in his face by rampaging xeno basterds so I were out of suspects. Unless...
...Gentlemen, who do we know that obviously hate mafia and ponies sunshine and top of it won't give us handsome lads a sidebar. That's right. Hotbid.
Hotbid must have gotten wind of tlmafia recruiting, knowing he can't exert his evil powers without risking the attention of the others he dared not make an appearence himself. Instead he used his wicked influence and stunning looks to corrupt three promising young initiates. Hotbids scheme must be stopped and his mislead rookies caught. No matter the cost.
On October 30 2011 20:12 Toadesstern wrote: oh and just a hint since this is a beginners game: If you are a dt or medic don't just hide or something. First of all, that really gives you away for mafia and secondly we might end up killing our very own dt or medic because we went for a lurker who turned out to be a blue playing "let's not get any attention or I'm going to get killed by mafia". Unless your coach told you otherwise. In that case just tell him he sucks. Your awesome special powers are not going to safe the day if noones talking at all.
To sum it up: post bitches
You seem awefully keen to make our dt and medic reveal themselves. Are you in bed with Hotbid?
On October 30 2011 14:42 Zanfada wrote: Day 1 it is very important not to let the mafia lurk and hide in the background. So we have to preasure them and force everyone to interact. If you look at the last mini mafia town lost because of inactivity. So we can't have anyone be inactive.
I guess to get things start hacklebeast hasn't posted anything yet. so until he speaks up or a better target comes along
##Vote hacklebeast
Unnecessarily trying to start a town panic? Baseless accusing people that, under your own admission, have no evidence against? Sounds like very mafia things to do. I'm not going to go so far as to cast my vote yet, but I'm watching you.
Besides, I could never have committed the crime. Gmarshal I could take or leave, but killing ponies? I don't have it in me to take out something this lovable.
On October 30 2011 20:12 Toadesstern wrote: oh and just a hint since this is a beginners game: If you are a dt or medic don't just hide or something. First of all, that really gives you away for mafia and secondly we might end up killing our very own dt or medic because we went for a lurker who turned out to be a blue playing "let's not get any attention or I'm going to get killed by mafia". Unless your coach told you otherwise. In that case just tell him he sucks. Your awesome special powers are not going to safe the day if noones talking at all.
To sum it up: post bitches
You seem awefully keen to make our dt and medic reveal themselves. Are you in bed with Hotbid?
nah, I'm kinda paranoid since last game where out of 12 people about 7 got modkilled because they didn't post enough
On October 30 2011 22:10 Toadesstern wrote: ciry desperatly trying to not die on day1 this time
Well, look where that brought town... but really, if we want town to get this game won we have to be on the ball.
Just because everyone has chimed in as being present doesn't excuse you from being non-contributing in this game; so let's start digging in.
Skrammen, just saying good day to all isn't enough yet, as Drem had already marked out xsksc randomly for his name. What do you think of this? Also, what about risk.nuke's reaction to Toadesstern's promptings for activity?
Chocolate and hyshes, why no commentary on Hacklebeast's response to Zanfada's early pressure? Do you think it's warranted to react to early pressure in that way? Also, the same thing applies to IMABUNNEH, what are your views on three people getting focused on early?
So we have three people who've pointed out three other guys for one of any sort of random reasons, and all of them have given some sort of reaction already. We already have something to work with here, and maybe a vote or two on them if you think their reaction or push is suspicious enough in your eyes.
On October 30 2011 20:12 Toadesstern wrote: oh and just a hint since this is a beginners game: If you are a dt or medic don't just hide or something. First of all, that really gives you away for mafia and secondly we might end up killing our very own dt or medic because we went for a lurker who turned out to be a blue playing "let's not get any attention or I'm going to get killed by mafia". Unless your coach told you otherwise. In that case just tell him he sucks. Your awesome special powers are not going to safe the day if noones talking at all.
To sum it up: post bitches
You seem awefully keen to make our dt and medic reveal themselves. Are you in bed with Hotbid?
nah, I'm kinda paranoid since last game where out of 12 people about 7 got modkilled because they didn't post enough
I see, but that is unrelated hence your paranoia defense isn't very convincing.. You were just hinting dts and medics to reveal themselves. That is scummy.
The thing with xsksc was pretty much just a joke to try and get the ball rolling. The only person that has really garnered any suspicion from me is bunneh, and that's only because his posts seem to be "posts for the sake of posting" rather than trying to really get anything dones.
On October 31 2011 00:53 Drem903 wrote: The thing with xsksc was pretty much just a joke to try and get the ball rolling. The only person that has really garnered any suspicion from me is bunneh, and that's only because his posts seem to be "posts for the sake of posting" rather than trying to really get anything dones.
He only seems to post to try and appear active.
Posts for posting's sake is an empty phrase. Posts for the sake of truth, posts for the sake of the good and the beautiful, those are the posts that I am searching for.
But seriously toad is looking a little suspicious. The people that would benefit the most from knowing who are dt/medic are the mafia. For the town, it's best if nobody knows, to present a difficult target.
Are you able to change you're vote after you have voted?
If you're not able to change you're vote, then we also have to be very suspicious of zanfada. We both randomly chose a person to try and encourage discussion, but he actually voted. If you can't change you're vote, then that seems suspicious to me, as he seems in a hurry to lynch someone (anyone). If you can change you're vote, then it's no big deal, but it's still something to consider.
I'm not entirely sure what "posting for the sake of posting" is defined at, but its not like there was anything MUCH to poke at prior to my posts.
Either toads or risk.nuke definately look a bit dodgy. Both of the posts struck me as quite aggressive in turning it into finger pointing. I don't think getting all up in peoples' grills immediately is what we want. It's just going to get innocent people on the defensive from the start.
Drem has so far poked at someone randomly as a "joke" and then at myself for not getting immediately aggressive. Who's next, risk.nuke for BEING aggressive? :p I don't think finger pointing every 6 posts at a different person is going to help us.
I doubt someone with almost no activity at this point is likely to be scum though. So even though Skrammen hasn't said anything,I'd rule him out for the time being and look at the "half-active" posters. risk.nuke and hacklebeast are both pretty aggressive in getting people to turn on someone so early.
On October 31 2011 00:53 Drem903 wrote: The thing with xsksc was pretty much just a joke to try and get the ball rolling. The only person that has really garnered any suspicion from me is bunneh, and that's only because his posts seem to be "posts for the sake of posting" rather than trying to really get anything dones.
He only seems to post to try and appear active.
Posts for posting's sake is an empty phrase. Posts for the sake of truth, posts for the sake of the good and the beautiful, those are the posts that I am searching for.
But seriously toad is looking a little suspicious. The people that would benefit the most from knowing who are dt/medic are the mafia. For the town, it's best if nobody knows, to present a difficult target.
Not necessarily. Being active means that if you're scum, you have more chances of doing a scumslip because you either let something about the set-up or the players themselves be known, or that you tie yourself to fellow players and end up compromising part of your team with how you either defend them or not engage with them at all.
In any case, if you think that Toad really is scummy, as I personally don't, given that I've played with him before and this is consistent with the play he's done, put it where your words are and vote him.
I don't see how toad telling people to be active even if they are blues is suspicious, it isn't like he said "dt's and medics should role-claim in the thread" or anything. He, like most of us, is simply trying to encourage activity from everyone. It also helps make it clear that you must contribute to scum-hunting as a blue if you don't want to be mistaken for scum yourself.
And just to call someone out a bit, I believe Skrammen has actually said the least of anyone so far, with a total contribution of:
On October 31 2011 01:19 Drem903 wrote: Are you able to change you're vote after you have voted?
If you're not able to change you're vote, then we also have to be very suspicious of zanfada. We both randomly chose a person to try and encourage discussion, but he actually voted. If you can't change you're vote, then that seems suspicious to me, as he seems in a hurry to lynch someone (anyone). If you can change you're vote, then it's no big deal, but it's still something to consider.
From the GM post:
5. This game follows Extended Majority Lynch Rules. Majority = #of players remaining in the game/2) (rounded down) + 1. Unlike in traditional majority lynch, the lynch is NOT decided the moment majority is reached. Instead, only the final vote count matters. If there is no majority at the deadline, the day ends with a no lynch. Non-voters will be modkilled for failure to vote.
On October 31 2011 01:22 IMABUNNEH wrote: I'm not entirely sure what "posting for the sake of posting" is defined at, but its not like there was anything MUCH to poke at prior to my posts.
Either toads or risk.nuke definately look a bit dodgy. Both of the posts struck me as quite aggressive in turning it into finger pointing. I don't think getting all up in peoples' grills immediately is what we want. It's just going to get innocent people on the defensive from the start.
Drem has so far poked at someone randomly as a "joke" and then at myself for not getting immediately aggressive. Who's next, risk.nuke for BEING aggressive? :p I don't think finger pointing every 6 posts at a different person is going to help us.
I doubt someone with almost no activity at this point is likely to be scum though. So even though Skrammen hasn't said anything,I'd rule him out for the time being and look at the "half-active" posters. risk.nuke and hacklebeast are both pretty aggressive in getting people to turn on someone so early.
Getting in peoples faces is precisly what we want. How else do you expect to catch scum?
On October 31 2011 01:24 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: I don't see how toad telling people to be active even if they are blues is suspicious, it isn't like he said "dt's and medics should role-claim in the thread" or anything. He, like most of us, is simply trying to encourage activity from everyone. It also helps make it clear that you must contribute to scum-hunting as a blue if you don't want to be mistaken for scum yourself.
And just to call someone out a bit, I believe Skrammen has actually said the least of anyone so far, with a total contribution of:
Even if that was what you thought, why were you so quick to tell everyone what you thought toad ment. He wasn't about to get lynched.. If that's what he thought when he wrote it he wouldn't had have any problems telling us that himself, if he's scum he might had given a scumslip.
On October 31 2011 01:24 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: I don't see how toad telling people to be active even if they are blues is suspicious, it isn't like he said "dt's and medics should role-claim in the thread" or anything. He, like most of us, is simply trying to encourage activity from everyone. It also helps make it clear that you must contribute to scum-hunting as a blue if you don't want to be mistaken for scum yourself.
And just to call someone out a bit, I believe Skrammen has actually said the least of anyone so far, with a total contribution of:
Good morning gentlemen!
Even if that was what you thought, why were you so quick to tell everyone what you thought toad ment. He wasn't about to get lynched.. If that's what he thought when he wrote it he wouldn't had have any problems telling us that himself, if he's scum he might had given a scumslip.
FOS
Based on the last line of his post
To sum it up: post bitches
I am pretty sure that is what he meant. But, you make a good point, I suppose I should mostly let people speak for themselves. Sorry about that, I'll try to give people more time to respond before jumping in.
On October 31 2011 01:27 risk.nuke wrote: Getting in peoples faces is precisly what we want. How else do you expect to catch scum?
When people are all aggro at each other, that's the best time to watch for slips right? That's what I'd have thought anyway. So I'm watching them more closely.
Even if that was what you thought, why were you so quick to tell everyone what you thought toad ment. He wasn't about to get lynched.. If that's what he thought when he wrote it he wouldn't had have any problems telling us that himself, if he's scum he might had given a scumslip.
2 people coming to each others' defense early on in the game isn't something I'd have expected either. Interpreting someone else's words to make them seem "nicer" than they were stated...
On October 31 2011 02:47 IMABUNNEH wrote: 2 people coming to each others' defense early on in the game isn't something I'd have expected either. Interpreting someone else's words to make them seem "nicer" than they were stated...
There was no coming to each others' defense, as he has said nothing in my defense. With Bunneh, Chocolate, and Risk all calling him out before my post, I simply wanted to avoid early bandwagoning (sp?) before we had some more contributions from everyone in the game. It was simply that and nothing more.
There was no coming to each others' defense, as he has said nothing in my defense.
Hmm good point, that'll teach me to reread better.
We still haven't heard from Skrammen though, and I still think Toad is dodgy. Since other than telling people they should post more posts, he hasn't really said anything.
There was no coming to each others' defense, as he has said nothing in my defense.
Hmm good point, that'll teach me to reread better.
We still haven't heard from Skrammen though, and I still think Toad is dodgy. Since other than telling people they should post more posts, he hasn't really said anything.
Zanfada also has not posted at all since his initial accusation, so he should also be one to consider for now.
On October 30 2011 14:42 Zanfada wrote: Day 1 it is very important not to let the mafia lurk and hide in the background. So we have to preasure them and force everyone to interact. If you look at the last mini mafia town lost because of inactivity. So we can't have anyone be inactive.
I guess to get things start hacklebeast hasn't posted anything yet. so until he speaks up or a better target comes along
##Vote hacklebeast
4 hours into the game and you go on and try to stir some discussion up? He wasnt the only one who had said nothing up to that point, why did you choose him? It seems a little bit... Dodgy to use a vote to pressure someone into talking more so soon I think.
And just a head's up: Since we have people from both sides of the pond in this game there is bound to be somewhat of a delay in answers and people might be working or sleeping when some discussions takes place. We should be somewhat tolerant of this, but obviously 24 hours of no posting is not good.
On October 31 2011 05:36 Drem903 wrote: Zanfada also has not posted at all since his initial accusation, so he should also be one to consider for now.
Yeah. Maybe they were just trying to get the ball rolling, or maybe they were trying to start people recieving flak early on. I'd go out on a limb and put odds on at least one of them being scum. Still have a day before having to vote at least to gauge that one more though.
I can take my vote back at any time. The vote was just there to promote talking which it did just that.
What was alot more interesting was Toad's post and how it was received. I personally think blues should post and help the town or they stand out to mafia and playing safe and become much better targets. Also mafia rarely mention blues for the simple fact that it makes them look more like mafia hunting for blues with any mention of blues. The same goes for blues themselves, they want to hide with town and do their job. I think Toad was just trying to prevent what happened last game to happen this game. However his post doesn't say anything more then "post guys" which doesn't further along any conversation it just increase his post count which in my opinion is all mafia try to do for the first day.
On October 30 2011 14:42 Zanfada wrote: Day 1 it is very important not to let the mafia lurk and hide in the background. So we have to preasure them and force everyone to interact. If you look at the last mini mafia town lost because of inactivity. So we can't have anyone be inactive.
I guess to get things start hacklebeast hasn't posted anything yet. so until he speaks up or a better target comes along
##Vote hacklebeast
Unnecessarily trying to start a town panic? Baseless accusing people that, under your own admission, have no evidence against? Sounds like very mafia things to do. I'm not going to go so far as to cast my vote yet, but I'm watching you.
Besides, I could never have committed the crime. Gmarshal I could take or leave, but killing ponies? I don't have it in me to take out something this lovable.
I wasn't starting a town panic, though it seems to have caused you to panic a little. Your response to my vote seems to be an emotional plea involving ponies and a FOS but little more then that. It seems as if you are trying to not draw any sort of attention to yourself even after a vote has already been placed on you. Normally I would take this as a scum tell but it seems more like a newbie tell then a mafia at this point.
Then there is Ciryandor, he defended me and my baseless attack on someone. The only time I usually am defended is when scum are trying to buddy up with me. Or since he has played a few games he is just trying to let newbies know what I was doing. Still FOS for now.
On October 31 2011 06:30 Zanfada wrote: I can take my vote back at any time. The vote was just there to promote talking which it did just that.
What was alot more interesting was Toad's post and how it was received. I personally think blues should post and help the town or they stand out to mafia and playing safe and become much better targets. Also mafia rarely mention blues for the simple fact that it makes them look more like mafia hunting for blues with any mention of blues. The same goes for blues themselves, they want to hide with town and do their job. I think Toad was just trying to prevent what happened last game to happen this game. However his post doesn't say anything more then "post guys" which doesn't further along any conversation it just increase his post count which in my opinion is all mafia try to do for the first day.
On October 30 2011 14:42 Zanfada wrote: Day 1 it is very important not to let the mafia lurk and hide in the background. So we have to preasure them and force everyone to interact. If you look at the last mini mafia town lost because of inactivity. So we can't have anyone be inactive.
I guess to get things start hacklebeast hasn't posted anything yet. so until he speaks up or a better target comes along
##Vote hacklebeast
Unnecessarily trying to start a town panic? Baseless accusing people that, under your own admission, have no evidence against? Sounds like very mafia things to do. I'm not going to go so far as to cast my vote yet, but I'm watching you.
Besides, I could never have committed the crime. Gmarshal I could take or leave, but killing ponies? I don't have it in me to take out something this lovable.
I wasn't starting a town panic, though it seems to have caused you to panic a little. Your response to my vote seems to be an emotional plea involving ponies and a FOS but little more then that. It seems as if you are trying to not draw any sort of attention to yourself even after a vote has already been placed on you. Normally I would take this as a scum tell but it seems more like a newbie tell then a mafia at this point.
Then there is Ciryandor, he defended me and my baseless attack on someone. The only time I usually am defended is when scum are trying to buddy up with me. Or since he has played a few games he is just trying to let newbies know what I was doing. Still FOS for now.
You tend to say very little with very much words.. That seems to me like you are overcompensating for the lack of conclusive arguments.
Definitely FOS on Zanfada now. Needlessly aggressive, fos on ciryandor for defending him, even though what you did at first was a smart and good thing to do as it opened discussion. And yeah, having almost no evidence for any of his fos but saying a lot of empty words is kinda :/
On October 30 2011 20:12 Toadesstern wrote: oh and just a hint since this is a beginners game: If you are a dt or medic don't just hide or something. First of all, that really gives you away for mafia and secondly we might end up killing our very own dt or medic because we went for a lurker who turned out to be a blue playing "let's not get any attention or I'm going to get killed by mafia". Unless your coach told you otherwise. In that case just tell him he sucks. Your awesome special powers are not going to safe the day if noones talking at all.
To sum it up: post bitches
You seem awefully keen to make our dt and medic reveal themselves. Are you in bed with Hotbid?
nah, I'm kinda paranoid since last game where out of 12 people about 7 got modkilled because they didn't post enough
I see, but that is unrelated hence your paranoia defense isn't very convincing.. You were just hinting dts and medics to reveal themselves. That is scummy.
no the point is, that as a dt or medic you don't want to look like a dt or medic for mafia, because that would be an easy hint for them. So let's say we got 9 people and all of them are posting equally. In that case mafia will have a hard time figurering out who's a blue. If we got 9 people, 6 of them are talking a lot and 3 are not, mafia will have a slight clue and have to decide if it's a guy who just isn't playing this game activ or if it's a guy who does not want to get killed for some reason. I don't want to make a possible dt or medic stand out. I'm saying, that in my opinion posting nothing at all WILL make them stand out and vulnerable. Just take into consideration when I actually made that post: About the time when 4 of us haven't made a post in this thread. Maybe it's 3 I don't know but you get the idea. I just wanted to make sure that there's nobody thinking "oh crap I have to do as little posts as possible as a dt to not give away my secret identy" because that's what came to my mind last game (which was my first game) and I was a dt. I had to change it pretty soon :p
Haven't read page 11, am reading right now and will maybe add something. This is just to clear up my "intentions" about that "make medics and dts" post.
In the interest of getting some other possible discussions going...
Skrammen has now doubled his post count, using his first to say good morning and his second accuses someone for trying to stir up discussion with a vote "so soon", as well as a preemptive excuse for not being active:
And just a head's up: Since we have people from both sides of the pond in this game there is bound to be somewhat of a delay in answers and people might be working or sleeping when some discussions takes place. We should be somewhat tolerant of this, but obviously 24 hours of no posting is not good.
The only people that benefit from a delayed discussion is obviously the mafia, they'd rather it never happen. Also, while his statement is true, I think it was fairly obvious to most people, and scum always like to have an excuse to fall back on.
Then there is Ciryandor, he defended me and my baseless attack on someone. The only time I usually am defended is when scum are trying to buddy up with me. Or since he has played a few games he is just trying to let newbies know what I was doing. Still FOS for now.
Just to clear things up since you brought that statement last game too. Remember my summary last game? I defended you as well and said that I'm pretty sure you're town. Yeah I was a dt but I never checked you since I checked all 3 reds and still knew you where town. I just wanted to tell the other guy so because he might not find out himself. You told me that looks like scum too and I just got to disagree here. Right now I think you posting little is normal because I saw the last game while a few think it's scummy. A couple guys think I made a scummy post by telling dts not to look like dts and ciry said he doesn't think so, which is a defence for me as well and I haven't got something scummy from him until now. So I got to say that logic is flawed :p
I still can't believe how that one guy thought I meant to make dts stand out of the crowd, looks a bit strange as if he wants to get town on someone, but that's just my opinion right now and I got to check what he posts the next couple days :p
Ok and now I read that thing from chocolate as well. I want you to explain that. Why is it a fos on ciry. I could understand a fos on zanfa although I don't believe it's strange since it totally fits in his style. Well and ciry is the only guy who started a real discussion. Everyone spammed a bit to get something going at all an he went for real talks, like "explain your thoughts" and stuff and from what I see it looks like he is trying to get people to make quality posts rather than spam. Totally fits in his style as well. Go ahead, blame me for defending, which I still think is wrong at this point, but I want your explanation on this. We obviously got very little right now but given what we have there's definitly people around looking more scummy.
On October 30 2011 20:12 Toadesstern wrote: oh and just a hint since this is a beginners game: If you are a dt or medic don't just hide or something. First of all, that really gives you away for mafia and secondly we might end up killing our very own dt or medic because we went for a lurker who turned out to be a blue playing "let's not get any attention or I'm going to get killed by mafia". Unless your coach told you otherwise. In that case just tell him he sucks. Your awesome special powers are not going to safe the day if noones talking at all.
To sum it up: post bitches
You seem awefully keen to make our dt and medic reveal themselves. Are you in bed with Hotbid?
nah, I'm kinda paranoid since last game where out of 12 people about 7 got modkilled because they didn't post enough
I see, but that is unrelated hence your paranoia defense isn't very convincing.. You were just hinting dts and medics to reveal themselves. That is scummy.
no the point is, that as a dt or medic you don't want to look like a dt or medic for mafia, because that would be an easy hint for them. So let's say we got 9 people and all of them are posting equally. In that case mafia will have a hard time figurering out who's a blue. If we got 9 people, 6 of them are talking a lot and 3 are not, mafia will have a slight clue and have to decide if it's a guy who just isn't playing this game activ or if it's a guy who does not want to get killed for some reason. I don't want to make a possible dt or medic stand out. I'm saying, that in my opinion posting nothing at all WILL make them stand out and vulnerable. Just take into consideration when I actually made that post: About the time when 4 of us haven't made a post in this thread. Maybe it's 3 I don't know but you get the idea. I just wanted to make sure that there's nobody thinking "oh crap I have to do as little posts as possible as a dt to not give away my secret identy" because that's what came to my mind last game (which was my first game) and I was a dt. I had to change it pretty soon :p
Haven't read page 11, am reading right now and will maybe add something. This is just to clear up my "intentions" about that "make medics and dts" post.
It lacks any sense whatsoever if you reflect it to his previous posts. He is either not explaining himself clearly or has an hidden agenda (read: he is scum)
On October 31 2011 07:28 Toadesstern wrote: Ok and now I read that thing from chocolate as well. I want you to explain that. Why is it a fos on ciry. I could understand a fos on zanfa although I don't believe it's strange since it totally fits in his style. Well and ciry is the only guy who started a real discussion. Everyone spammed a bit to get something going at all an he went for real talks, like "explain your thoughts" and stuff and from what I see it looks like he is trying to get people to make quality posts rather than spam. Totally fits in his style as well. Go ahead, blame me for defending, which I still think is wrong at this point, but I want your explanation on this. We obviously got very little right now but given what we have there's definitly people around looking more scummy.
If you are talking to me I explained why I fos'ed zanfa. However I am having trouble understanding your post, particularly who "you" is.
tell my what you don't like or what you don't think makes sense and I will explain it. Withouth anything it's just nothing you post to make poeple go after someone
On October 30 2011 20:12 Toadesstern wrote: oh and just a hint since this is a beginners game: If you are a dt or medic don't just hide or something. First of all, that really gives you away for mafia and secondly we might end up killing our very own dt or medic because we went for a lurker who turned out to be a blue playing "let's not get any attention or I'm going to get killed by mafia". Unless your coach told you otherwise. In that case just tell him he sucks. Your awesome special powers are not going to safe the day if noones talking at all.
To sum it up: post bitches
You seem awefully keen to make our dt and medic reveal themselves. Are you in bed with Hotbid?
nah, I'm kinda paranoid since last game where out of 12 people about 7 got modkilled because they didn't post enough
I see, but that is unrelated hence your paranoia defense isn't very convincing.. You were just hinting dts and medics to reveal themselves. That is scummy.
no the point is, that as a dt or medic you don't want to look like a dt or medic for mafia, because that would be an easy hint for them. So let's say we got 9 people and all of them are posting equally. In that case mafia will have a hard time figurering out who's a blue. If we got 9 people, 6 of them are talking a lot and 3 are not, mafia will have a slight clue and have to decide if it's a guy who just isn't playing this game activ or if it's a guy who does not want to get killed for some reason. I don't want to make a possible dt or medic stand out. I'm saying, that in my opinion posting nothing at all WILL make them stand out and vulnerable. Just take into consideration when I actually made that post: About the time when 4 of us haven't made a post in this thread. Maybe it's 3 I don't know but you get the idea. I just wanted to make sure that there's nobody thinking "oh crap I have to do as little posts as possible as a dt to not give away my secret identy" because that's what came to my mind last game (which was my first game) and I was a dt. I had to change it pretty soon :p
Haven't read page 11, am reading right now and will maybe add something. This is just to clear up my "intentions" about that "make medics and dts" post.
It lacks any sense whatsoever if you reflect it to his previous posts. He is either not explaining himself clearly or has an hidden agenda (read: he is scum)
When does the first day ends?
you can always find that information in the Day/Night post by the host. Also, if you have a question like "what does FOS mean" feel free to ask a coach, that is exactly what they are there for
@Toad Keep in mind many (most?) people have not played together, if at all, before. So something fitting their style is hard to determine for those of us who haven't. That being said, I will now go look through that game you were in to try to fix that problem. For anyone else interested in doing so as well: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=264798
It contains 3 of our current players, Toadesstern, Ciryandor, and Zanfada. It is also pretty short, so shouldn't take too long to read through. Careful with just filtering the three players though, context context context!
Ok yeah sry it's kinda late in germany and it's not my native language after all: I want you to explain why you think it's a fos on ciry because I think those "X is defending Y" arguments are flawed. I don't think that someone saying "hey that could totally be a normal posting" is scummy at all. Especially given that we know each other a bit.
I just said, zanfas posts totally look like zanfas post from last game, which turned out to be town (go ahead and search the old thread) and so do ciry posts. And except for that one point, which I think is not a scum tell (defending someone) I don't think we got something scummy on ciry.
Oh and a hint. If you want to check our postings last game use filters. Ciry died day 1, so there's not much. Zanfas did not post a hell lot and I posted quiiiiite some but noone replyed. My posts probably need to be seen in context
Toadesstern, could you please direct your questions to people in specific? We can not always be sure who you mean with "you" (just because i'm not sure if you are asking me anything)
On October 31 2011 07:39 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: @Toad Keep in mind many (most?) people have not played together, if at all, before. So something fitting their style is hard to determine for those of us who haven't. That being said, I will now go look through that game you were in to try to fix that problem. For anyone else interested in doing so as well: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=264798
It contains 3 of our current players, Toadesstern, Ciryandor, and Zanfada. It is also pretty short, so shouldn't take too long to read through. Careful with just filtering the three players though, context context context!
yeah but that's just what I said. We know each other a bit so I think both look perfectly fine. Zanfas does look a bit strange since he's posting so much but that's a good thing and I'm guessing he improved right now :p Ciry is just like what he did last game and well ciry said something like that about me. So that is why I don't think a statement like "yeah I played last game with him and it kinda looks legit" is scummy and I got to disagree.
oh and yeah sry hyshes, will keep quoting from now on. I'm not used to such a fast thread :D So this post was about harb and my last sentece was directed to hyshes. Those 2 before were more of a general post talking to everyone.
tell my what you don't like or what you don't think makes sense and I will explain it. Withouth anything it's just nothing you post to make poeple go after someone
On October 31 2011 05:40 Skrammen wrote: And just a head's up: Since we have people from both sides of the pond in this game there is bound to be somewhat of a delay in answers and people might be working or sleeping when some discussions takes place. We should be somewhat tolerant of this, but obviously 24 hours of no posting is not good.
2 posts in almost 24 hours is almost as bad as 24 hours of nothing though, and as a reference, the people on both sides of the pond (myself and Toads for Europe, for example) have multiple posts. Have you been working all Sunday or something?
On October 31 2011 07:39 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: @Toad Keep in mind many (most?) people have not played together, if at all, before. So something fitting their style is hard to determine for those of us who haven't. That being said, I will now go look through that game you were in to try to fix that problem. For anyone else interested in doing so as well: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=264798
It contains 3 of our current players, Toadesstern, Ciryandor, and Zanfada. It is also pretty short, so shouldn't take too long to read through. Careful with just filtering the three players though, context context context!
yeah but that's just what I said. We know each other a bit so I think both look perfectly fine. Zanfas does look a bit strange since he's posting so much but that's a good thing and I'm guessing he improved right now :p Ciry is just like what he did last game and well ciry said something like that about me. So that is why I don't think a statement like "yeah I played last game with him and it kinda looks legit" is scummy and I got to disagree.
oh and yeah sry hyshes, will keep quoting from now on. I'm not used to such a fast thread :D So this post was about harb and my last sentece was directed to hyshes. Those 2 before were more of a general post talking to everyone.
tell my what you don't like or what you don't think makes sense and I will explain it. Withouth anything it's just nothing you post to make poeple go after someone
was directed to hyshes. everything clear now?
@Toadesstern my excuses, i reread you opening post, i must have misremembered it wrong.
On October 31 2011 05:40 Skrammen wrote: And just a head's up: Since we have people from both sides of the pond in this game there is bound to be somewhat of a delay in answers and people might be working or sleeping when some discussions takes place. We should be somewhat tolerant of this, but obviously 24 hours of no posting is not good.
2 posts in almost 24 hours is almost as bad as 24 hours of nothing though, and as a reference, the people on both sides of the pond (myself and Toads for Europe, for example) have multiple posts. Have you been working all Sunday or something?
@IMABUNNEH even though i don't like inactives either, direct attacks seem a bit off. He is not the only one who is post very little (i only see the same 5-6 returning while reading).
@all: i would to remind you all of my previously posted opinion about Zanfada. It seems to me he overcompensates the lack of simple and clear arguments by huge blocks of text.
On October 31 2011 06:30 Zanfada wrote: I can take my vote back at any time. The vote was just there to promote talking which it did just that.
What was alot more interesting was Toad's post and how it was received. I personally think blues should post and help the town or they stand out to mafia and playing safe and become much better targets. Also mafia rarely mention blues for the simple fact that it makes them look more like mafia hunting for blues with any mention of blues. The same goes for blues themselves, they want to hide with town and do their job. I think Toad was just trying to prevent what happened last game to happen this game. However his post doesn't say anything more then "post guys" which doesn't further along any conversation it just increase his post count which in my opinion is all mafia try to do for the first day.
On October 30 2011 22:54 hacklebeast wrote:
On October 30 2011 14:42 Zanfada wrote: Day 1 it is very important not to let the mafia lurk and hide in the background. So we have to preasure them and force everyone to interact. If you look at the last mini mafia town lost because of inactivity. So we can't have anyone be inactive.
I guess to get things start hacklebeast hasn't posted anything yet. so until he speaks up or a better target comes along
##Vote hacklebeast
Unnecessarily trying to start a town panic? Baseless accusing people that, under your own admission, have no evidence against? Sounds like very mafia things to do. I'm not going to go so far as to cast my vote yet, but I'm watching you.
Besides, I could never have committed the crime. Gmarshal I could take or leave, but killing ponies? I don't have it in me to take out something this lovable.
I wasn't starting a town panic, though it seems to have caused you to panic a little. Your response to my vote seems to be an emotional plea involving ponies and a FOS but little more then that. It seems as if you are trying to not draw any sort of attention to yourself even after a vote has already been placed on you. Normally I would take this as a scum tell but it seems more like a newbie tell then a mafia at this point.
Then there is Ciryandor, he defended me and my baseless attack on someone. The only time I usually am defended is when scum are trying to buddy up with me. Or since he has played a few games he is just trying to let newbies know what I was doing. Still FOS for now.
You tend to say very little with very much words.. That seems to me like you are overcompensating for the lack of conclusive arguments.
Ok I still would like chocolate to explain why he got a fos on ciry. It might be right (I don't think we got a reason to think so but I won't say it's wrong on day 1 without information ) but if I had to make a list of people from 1 to 12 where 1 is the guy I think is the most likely to be town and 12 the guy most likely to be mafia in my opinion I'd place ciry somewhere in those top 50% spots. I still think that this is strange. The only reason behind this, as far as I understood it, was ciry "defending" zanfa ?
Also, keep in mind getting agressive is kind of a town tell. At least that's what happens to me. Just imagine you post something you think is ok or good, someone quotes it and makes it look like you're scum although you said something totally different, or at least wanted to do so. In that situation I WOULD probably be pissed. At least that's part of the "paranoid-answer" I did on page 9 when you guys asked me about the my post about dt or medics. I just did not think someone could interpretate it that way and thought it's clear and therefore I don't have to explain it. Turned out I was wrong. To sum it up: It might be something but I think it's more of a human nature thing getting into him. Let's face it, if someone accuses you to be mafia and you know yourself you're not the first thing you think is wtf is up with you dude, just reread what I posted. Also he did the exact same thing in the last game. He voted on day1 for me and switched later on his vote and only tried to make me talking.
I think those people desperatly trying to point at someone telling us to vote for those guys look way more scummy right now, which is why I still want that explanation from choc.
@IMABUNNEH even though i don't like inactives either, direct attacks seem a bit off. He is not the only one who is post very little (i only see the same 5-6 returning while reading).
I didn't mean it as a direct attack, though reading it it is more aggressive than I intended. It's an attempt to get him posting SOMETHING rather than nothing, and asking him where he's been is as good as any.
@all: i would to remind you all of my previously posted opinion about Zanfada. It seems to me he overcompensates the lack of simple and clear arguments by huge blocks of text.
He's definately FOS from me since a little earlier. It just seems a whole lot of nothing.
1. Voting is done in this thread. Please keep votes there, and only vote there. Do not PM me your vote.
I know Kita mentioned that votes can be done within this thread earlier, but just to avoid any issues, can the OP be updated to clarify that votes should go here, and not in some mysterious "there"? Right now it looks like that should be a link to a voting thread that simply isn't up yet.
Oh and a final note about all those fos things. I still think we should go for a lurker on day-1 unless we got something that sounds scummy and until now I don't think we got something. If we lynch someone who's lurking we got a decent chance of hitting a mafia. Obiously not every mafia style involves lurking.
But the two most important parts are (one already mentioned earlier): We force mafia into talking. That's not bad for mafia because of talking but because of talking a lot means a lot of chances of slipping. That's exactly what we want. The more mafia talks, the more likely we're to find something decent out of an analysis. Especially post death. For those who are reading the thread of the last game, take a look at my last post (for those who don't want to read the whole thing just read that one post): Klick me! Just take a look at my analysis. We had 1 guy who made a total of 2 (!) posts and thats all and those other 2 guys made pretty much no posts, as well and STILL we got a decent analysis out of me, not because of what they said but because of what dead, confirmed mafia said (pretty much everything I said about zanfas is stuff from dead mafias except for his one analysis). Just as an example how important this is. That way I at least knew zanfas was 99% town last game.
A second point would be our town situation. Of course lynching a mafia is what we want but let's think about what happens if we turn out to lynch a town. If we end up killing a lurking town that's bad because we ended up killing a townie instead of a mafia but killing an active townie is just really bad because killing a townie sucks and on top of that we're destroying townsituation by killing those guys posting. At least as long as it's out of the blue like now.
Toad i did not fos ciry. Filter my posts and look at them if you dont believe me. I only fosd zanfa, and noted suspicion with you that i have since withdrawn.
On October 31 2011 07:00 Chocolate wrote: Definitely FOS on Zanfada now. Needlessly aggressive, fos on ciryandor for defending him, even though what you did at first was a smart and good thing to do as it opened discussion. And yeah, having almost no evidence for any of his fos but saying a lot of empty words is kinda :/
[Emphasis mine]
I think the bolded part is the source of the confusion.
Good morning to all, I think I see some good work from everyone here. At least my prompting for some actual probing worked this time. By now we should start committing votes to people we think are suspicious in their activity, and we actually have people who think we ought to lynch someone.
So I'll summarize what we have:
Lots of suspicion (from HoD, risk, xsksc, Chocolate, hyshes) on Toad for prompting productive activity ; which was essentially what I was doing as well.
Some suspicion on Zanfada as well (from hyshes and Chocolate), admittedly minor, for doing lots of "filler talk".
A bit of shifty eyes on me for basically posting a rule answering a green-lined post, which was interpreted as defending a player.
What's interesting to me is why hyshes and Chocolate have flip-flopped between Zanfada and Toadesstern without committing to one of the two as their vote. If you really want to pressure them or think they're suspicious enough, then go and cast a vote.
I personally have a good vote that I want to expound on right now, but I want to see more posting from that person before I cast it, as it may yield more information on him.
On October 31 2011 12:02 Ciryandor wrote: Lots of suspicion (from HoD, risk, xsksc, Chocolate, hyshes) on Toad for prompting productive activity ; which was essentially what I was doing as well.
The only person I have called out my suspicion on is Skrammen. Since he hasn't said anything since then, I remain suspicious of him.
Some suspicion on Zanfada as well (from hyshes and Chocolate), admittedly minor, for doing lots of "filler talk".
Bunneh, Drem, and Skraamen have also mentioned Zanfada as someone to watch. I find it interesting that you miss out on all of those as well as call the suspicion on him minor. However, you seem to be genuinely trying to create discussion, so try to be more accurate with your summaries.
On October 31 2011 05:36 Drem903 wrote: Zanfada also has not posted at all since his initial accusation, so he should also be one to consider for now.
Yeah. Maybe they were just trying to get the ball rolling, or maybe they were trying to start people recieving flak early on. I'd go out on a limb and put odds on at least one of them being scum.
From Drem:
Zanfada also has not posted at all since his initial accusation, so he should also be one to consider for now.
On October 30 2011 14:42 Zanfada wrote: Day 1 it is very important not to let the mafia lurk and hide in the background. So we have to preasure them and force everyone to interact. If you look at the last mini mafia town lost because of inactivity. So we can't have anyone be inactive.
I guess to get things start hacklebeast hasn't posted anything yet. so until he speaks up or a better target comes along
##Vote hacklebeast
4 hours into the game and you go on and try to stir some discussion up? He wasnt the only one who had said nothing up to that point, why did you choose him? It seems a little bit... Dodgy to use a vote to pressure someone into talking more so soon I think.
All that being said, I would like to hear more from xsksc, Drem, hacklebeast, risk.nuke, and Skrammen. All of these players have been relatively quiet now and I would like to hear what their current scum reads/suspicions are.
On October 31 2011 12:02 Ciryandor wrote: Lots of suspicion (from HoD, risk, xsksc, Chocolate, hyshes) on Toad for prompting productive activity ; which was essentially what I was doing as well.
The only person I have called out my suspicion on is Skrammen. Since he hasn't said anything since then, I remain suspicious of him.
Some suspicion on Zanfada as well (from hyshes and Chocolate), admittedly minor, for doing lots of "filler talk".
Bunneh, Drem, and Skraamen have also mentioned Zanfada as someone to watch. I find it interesting that you miss out on all of those as well as call the suspicion on him minor. However, you seem to be genuinely trying to create discussion, so try to be more accurate with your summaries.
On October 31 2011 05:36 Drem903 wrote: Zanfada also has not posted at all since his initial accusation, so he should also be one to consider for now.
Yeah. Maybe they were just trying to get the ball rolling, or maybe they were trying to start people recieving flak early on. I'd go out on a limb and put odds on at least one of them being scum.
From Drem:
Zanfada also has not posted at all since his initial accusation, so he should also be one to consider for now.
On October 30 2011 14:42 Zanfada wrote: Day 1 it is very important not to let the mafia lurk and hide in the background. So we have to preasure them and force everyone to interact. If you look at the last mini mafia town lost because of inactivity. So we can't have anyone be inactive.
I guess to get things start hacklebeast hasn't posted anything yet. so until he speaks up or a better target comes along
##Vote hacklebeast
4 hours into the game and you go on and try to stir some discussion up? He wasnt the only one who had said nothing up to that point, why did you choose him? It seems a little bit... Dodgy to use a vote to pressure someone into talking more so soon I think.
All that being said, I would like to hear more from xsksc, Drem, hacklebeast, risk.nuke, and Skrammen. All of these players have been relatively quiet now and I would like to hear what their current scum reads/suspicions are.
I didn't specifically miss out on them, but what I was getting at is that compared to the FoS pointed to Toad, Zanfada's relative exposure, and the corresponding nitpicks that come with it, are lesser and were made by the people I highlighted. Do note that I don't usually use filters when I go through posts, because it loses a lot of the context; but filtering does highlight player slips when it happens.
In this case, I'm trying to narrow down on whether Zanfada's posts are just his regular filler posts like his last game, or if he's being non-committal, but I'd like to also highlight Chocolate and hyshes' posts for being wishy-washy about who they want to vote for, because being active yet not putting on vote pressure is bad form; it lets players get away with less reasons for someone to not pile on them.
As you said, sooner or later we have to choose someone to lynch.
Just read through all the stuff that's happened in the last 12 hours. Here's my thoughts..
Toadesstern
Initially I felt he was pretty scummy when he posted telling our blues not to hide although I may have misinterpreted this. His recent posts seem logical and unsuspicious. Will continue to watch him.
Zanfada
Not posted a lot so far but he looks very strange to me. 1 vote and a FOS in 2 posts. I'd like to hear more out of you. I would also like to know why you defend toad in the first half of your post and then FOS on ciry for defending you. You said the only time you are defended is when scum try to buddy up to you... Seems very contradictory to me.
I'm not really seeing anything suspicious out of anyone else yet, need to hear from the inactives.
We do have to lynch someone today so please keep posting people!
Times mentioned in this thread from hosts are in TL-time I guess? So saying day will end 03:00 means 3:00 tl.time right? Since there's nothing else I'm guessing so but would like to get a yes on that
Also, I'm voting for chocolate. I still think it's a bit strange but I don't like that fosing around like a mad man. Could have been someone else who did so. He just turned out to attack me and since I know I'm not mafia that does sound a bit strange to me :p I'm at university right now, will be back in 4 hours so maybe we got something out of this when I'm back. ##Vote Chocolate
On October 31 2011 17:31 Toadesstern wrote: Times mentioned in this thread from hosts are in TL-time I guess? So saying day will end 03:00 means 3:00 tl.time right? Since there's nothing else I'm guessing so but would like to get a yes on that
It's 3am BST, at least thats what the OP says for me. In the UK we just switched from BST to GMT the other night, so I'm a little confused too.
I think the deadline is 2am GMT, TL time is 9 hours ahead of GMT so deadline in TL Time would be 11 am. I could be wrong here and hopefully the host will correct me if I am.
On October 31 2011 17:31 Toadesstern wrote: Times mentioned in this thread from hosts are in TL-time I guess? So saying day will end 03:00 means 3:00 tl.time right? Since there's nothing else I'm guessing so but would like to get a yes on that
It's 3am BST, at least thats what the OP says for me. In the UK we just switched from BST to GMT the other night, so I'm a little confused too.
I think the deadline is 2am GMT, TL time is 9 hours ahead of GMT so deadline in TL Time would be 11 am. I could be wrong here and hopefully the host will correct me if I am.
There's a way to format a time so it automatically appears in the regions people set their tl accounts to, so it's in your local time.
Skrammen has contributed very little so far so until he talks more I will vote for him. ##vote Skrammen
Toad im sorry to hear that you are suspicious of me, but I think its just due to communication errors more than anything else. I did note suspicion on you at first but I withdrew once you explained your reasoning. Once again, you can look back at my posts to verify.
Zanfa has my suspicion but not enough yet to warrant a vote.
On October 31 2011 07:20 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: In the interest of getting some other possible discussions going...
Skrammen has now doubled his post count, using his first to say good morning and his second accuses someone for trying to stir up discussion with a vote "so soon", as well as a preemptive excuse for not being active:
And just a head's up: Since we have people from both sides of the pond in this game there is bound to be somewhat of a delay in answers and people might be working or sleeping when some discussions takes place. We should be somewhat tolerant of this, but obviously 24 hours of no posting is not good.
The only people that benefit from a delayed discussion is obviously the mafia, they'd rather it never happen. Also, while his statement is true, I think it was fairly obvious to most people, and scum always like to have an excuse to fall back on.
So FOS on Skrammen for now.
Ah. Well, you see I was only trying to clarify some things so they are clear. I did not however, encourage it.
The only people that benefit from a delayed discussion is obviously the mafia, they'd rather it never happen. Also, while his statement is true, I think it was fairly obvious to most people, and scum always like to have an excuse to fall back on.
I think we both might be talking without saying anything now; both of these things are quite obvious, yet we both had to say it. What I said was just that; A head's up just in case people did not know. Honestly I think this is pretty bad grounds for accusations. I still maintain that a vote 4 hours into the game is pretty suspicious, but not enough to be convinced he is red.
I can take my vote back at any time. The vote was just there to promote talking which it did just that.
What was alot more interesting was Toad's post and how it was received. I personally think blues should post and help the town or they stand out to mafia and playing safe and become much better targets. Also mafia rarely mention blues for the simple fact that it makes them look more like mafia hunting for blues with any mention of blues. The same goes for blues themselves, they want to hide with town and do their job. I think Toad was just trying to prevent what happened last game to happen this game. However his post doesn't say anything more then "post guys" which doesn't further along any conversation it just increase his post count which in my opinion is all mafia try to do for the first day. On October 30 2011 22:54 hacklebeast wrote: Show nested quote +
Unnecessarily trying to start a town panic? Baseless accusing people that, under your own admission, have no evidence against? Sounds like very mafia things to do. I'm not going to go so far as to cast my vote yet, but I'm watching you.
Besides, I could never have committed the crime. Gmarshal I could take or leave, but killing ponies? I don't have it in me to take out something this lovable.
I wasn't starting a town panic, though it seems to have caused you to panic a little. Your response to my vote seems to be an emotional plea involving ponies and a FOS but little more then that. It seems as if you are trying to not draw any sort of attention to yourself even after a vote has already been placed on you. Normally I would take this as a scum tell but it seems more like a newbie tell then a mafia at this point.
Then there is Ciryandor, he defended me and my baseless attack on someone. The only time I usually am defended is when scum are trying to buddy up with me. Or since he has played a few games he is just trying to let newbies know what I was doing. Still FOS for now.
This is his answer to why he did it, and to be honest, it worked, he got stuff going which is good. I will be keeping an eye out, but at this point his reasoning seems good enough for me. As you said earlier, delaying discussion is indicative of scummy behaviour, or perhaps it might not be? An elaborate ruse?
sadly noone made a statement about my vote ;( I actually did not want to vote for chocolate but I'd ve loved to see those reactions from people about that who are already suspicios. first of all
Unvote## Chocolate
What do you people think about hyshes and risk? Risk is the one I'd like to see make a couple posts since he basicly said nothing and I don't know anything about him. While hyshes... I don't know, could be anything :p
On November 01 2011 00:53 Toadesstern wrote: sadly noone made a statement about my vote ;( I actually did not want to vote for chocolate but I'd have loved to see reactions from people who I think are suspicious about my vote :/ first of all
Unvote## Chocolate
What do you people think about hyshes and risk? Risk is the one I'd like to see make a couple posts since he basicly said nothing and I don't know anything about him. While hyshes... I don't know, could be anything :p
that first sentence just made no sense, fixed it and hopefully it's clear what my intention was.
Originally I had the idea that Zanfa sounds scummy. I still think that. HOWEVER I don't like Toad's most recent posting. He said in the original vote for Chocolate that he didn't like the way he was throwing FOS around, and is now backing off for a pretty weak reason. What did you expect to get out of that Toad? Someone bandwagoning or someone trying to defend him or what?
That kind of tomfoolery reeks of someone trying to be "too obvious" to me. I've got a couple of hours to make my vote still, but for now, FOS on Toad.
On November 01 2011 00:53 Toadesstern wrote: sadly noone made a statement about my vote ;( I actually did not want to vote for chocolate but I'd have loved to see reactions from people who I think are suspicious about my vote :/ first of all
Unvote## Chocolate
What do you people think about hyshes and risk? Risk is the one I'd like to see make a couple posts since he basicly said nothing and I don't know anything about him. While hyshes... I don't know, could be anything :p
that first sentence just made no sense, fixed it and hopefully it's clear what my intention was.
It's the time of day for most people. I'm about to sleep, so I'll miss around 8 hours of discussion, but I feel that Skrammen has been able to coast by the most, and next to that would be Drem903.
Putting pressure on him and explaining my vote to follow:
## Vote Skrammen
Skrammen's first game post is a greeting, nothing wrong there, but it's fluff to make sure he doesn't get modkilled.
On October 30 2011 14:42 Zanfada wrote: Day 1 it is very important not to let the mafia lurk and hide in the background. So we have to preasure them and force everyone to interact. If you look at the last mini mafia town lost because of inactivity. So we can't have anyone be inactive.
I guess to get things start hacklebeast hasn't posted anything yet. so until he speaks up or a better target comes along
##Vote hacklebeast
4 hours into the game and you go on and try to stir some discussion up? He wasnt the only one who had said nothing up to that point, why did you choose him? It seems a little bit... Dodgy to use a vote to pressure someone into talking more so soon I think.
And just a head's up: Since we have people from both sides of the pond in this game there is bound to be somewhat of a delay in answers and people might be working or sleeping when some discussions takes place. We should be somewhat tolerant of this, but obviously 24 hours of no posting is not good.
Now here he looks at Zanfada's early pressure and thinks it's scummy to randomly highlight someone, when it's actually good town play to be non-discriminating; then proceeds to state the obvious that certain conversation delays are going to happen simply because of timezones.
On October 31 2011 07:20 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: In the interest of getting some other possible discussions going...
Skrammen has now doubled his post count, using his first to say good morning and his second accuses someone for trying to stir up discussion with a vote "so soon", as well as a preemptive excuse for not being active:
And just a head's up: Since we have people from both sides of the pond in this game there is bound to be somewhat of a delay in answers and people might be working or sleeping when some discussions takes place. We should be somewhat tolerant of this, but obviously 24 hours of no posting is not good.
The only people that benefit from a delayed discussion is obviously the mafia, they'd rather it never happen. Also, while his statement is true, I think it was fairly obvious to most people, and scum always like to have an excuse to fall back on.
So FOS on Skrammen for now.
Ah. Well, you see I was only trying to clarify some things so they are clear. I did not however, encourage it.
The only people that benefit from a delayed discussion is obviously the mafia, they'd rather it never happen. Also, while his statement is true, I think it was fairly obvious to most people, and scum always like to have an excuse to fall back on.
I think we both might be talking without saying anything now; both of these things are quite obvious, yet we both had to say it. What I said was just that; A head's up just in case people did not know. Honestly I think this is pretty bad grounds for accusations. I still maintain that a vote 4 hours into the game is pretty suspicious, but not enough to be convinced he is red.
I can take my vote back at any time. The vote was just there to promote talking which it did just that.
What was alot more interesting was Toad's post and how it was received. I personally think blues should post and help the town or they stand out to mafia and playing safe and become much better targets. Also mafia rarely mention blues for the simple fact that it makes them look more like mafia hunting for blues with any mention of blues. The same goes for blues themselves, they want to hide with town and do their job. I think Toad was just trying to prevent what happened last game to happen this game. However his post doesn't say anything more then "post guys" which doesn't further along any conversation it just increase his post count which in my opinion is all mafia try to do for the first day. On October 30 2011 22:54 hacklebeast wrote: Show nested quote +
Unnecessarily trying to start a town panic? Baseless accusing people that, under your own admission, have no evidence against? Sounds like very mafia things to do. I'm not going to go so far as to cast my vote yet, but I'm watching you.
Besides, I could never have committed the crime. Gmarshal I could take or leave, but killing ponies? I don't have it in me to take out something this lovable.
I wasn't starting a town panic, though it seems to have caused you to panic a little. Your response to my vote seems to be an emotional plea involving ponies and a FOS but little more then that. It seems as if you are trying to not draw any sort of attention to yourself even after a vote has already been placed on you. Normally I would take this as a scum tell but it seems more like a newbie tell then a mafia at this point.
Then there is Ciryandor, he defended me and my baseless attack on someone. The only time I usually am defended is when scum are trying to buddy up with me. Or since he has played a few games he is just trying to let newbies know what I was doing. Still FOS for now.
This is his answer to why he did it, and to be honest, it worked, he got stuff going which is good. I will be keeping an eye out, but at this point his reasoning seems good enough for me. As you said earlier, delaying discussion is indicative of scummy behaviour, or perhaps it might not be? An elaborate ruse?
Here in this post he's very much guilty of pointing out something that works towards the scum-team's advantage, and that is to have fluff conversations regarding people who merit suspicion, but not applying enough pressure for him to actually do a vote.
Three posts, two on a very weak FoS, just enough to evade proper scrutiny. I think this is worth my vote.
Drem's post record is the following; and I feel he's worth looking at as well:
On October 30 2011 11:27 Drem903 wrote: Whoever killed GMarshal must hate friendship, quite a bit.. and ponies. He is probably the worst type of scum to ever exist.
On October 30 2011 13:48 Drem903 wrote: using extensive analysis, and some complex theory. I have decided to blame xsksc for the murder, because his name is impossible to pronounce,
I see a parallel with the last mini game, where scum wanted to jump the gun a bit using some very speculative reason to create an FoS on someone; but in this case this is tempered by the fact that he did not vote on xsksc.
Then when he realizes nobody really bit his bait:
On October 30 2011 15:39 Drem903 wrote: If you're telling the truth that you're name really is just a random assortment of levels, then i will no longer blame you. I had assumed that you were possessed by some kind of devil, hence the inhuman name.
He plays it off as an attempt to stir conversation...
On October 31 2011 00:53 Drem903 wrote: The thing with xsksc was pretty much just a joke to try and get the ball rolling. The only person that has really garnered any suspicion from me is bunneh, and that's only because his posts seem to be "posts for the sake of posting" rather than trying to really get anything dones.
He only seems to post to try and appear active.
Then goes on the offensive after someone does commit to a real vote on a person.
On October 31 2011 01:19 Drem903 wrote: Are you able to change you're vote after you have voted?
If you're not able to change you're vote, then we also have to be very suspicious of zanfada. We both randomly chose a person to try and encourage discussion, but he actually voted. If you can't change you're vote, then that seems suspicious to me, as he seems in a hurry to lynch someone (anyone). If you can change you're vote, then it's no big deal, but it's still something to consider.
After that post, he basically leaves the suspicion on Zanfada, which by now looks good enough for other people to lynch.
There was no coming to each others' defense, as he has said nothing in my defense.
Hmm good point, that'll teach me to reread better.
We still haven't heard from Skrammen though, and I still think Toad is dodgy. Since other than telling people they should post more posts, he hasn't really said anything.
Zanfada also has not posted at all since his initial accusation, so he should also be one to consider for now.
I will let you judge on whether it's worth examining.
I think his moves have been shady since the beginning. First tries to get the important figures to revel themselves (not explicitly, but if a lurker suddenly started posting significantly after it would give mafia a good clue), then follows it up with a lot of talk about the necessity to kill lurkers. To top it off he fingers chocolate only to rescind his vote after no one else follows suit.
On November 01 2011 01:26 IMABUNNEH wrote: Originally I had the idea that Zanfa sounds scummy. I still think that. HOWEVER I don't like Toad's most recent posting. He said in the original vote for Chocolate that he didn't like the way he was throwing FOS around, and is now backing off for a pretty weak reason. What did you expect to get out of that Toad? Someone bandwagoning or someone trying to defend him or what?
That kind of tomfoolery reeks of someone trying to be "too obvious" to me. I've got a couple of hours to make my vote still, but for now, FOS on Toad.
basicly my point is, that I don't like it, but given the fact that this is a beginners game for now I went with his explanation. However Voting for choc (for me) was easy after that, so I wanted to get a vote on him to observe peoples behavior. You know, someone changing his mind out of the blue just to get a vote on someone. That would have been pretty scummy and I know my last 2 or 3 posts sounded strange, that's why I did them :p I don't mind looking a bit weird from time to time if that's getting us a couple results. Mafia can't really kill me right now, because if they do and I flip green town gets massive amounts of information from previous posts since I was a topic the last pages. Same with zanfas, that is if he turns out to be green.
I still don't like what risk is doing here: nothing. If he's not going to make a vote and is going to get modkilled that's fine with me (not really but I can't do a thing about it), however if he showes up sometimes soon and does NOT get modkilled I want a pretty damn good explanation for what he's doing. Scrammen seems to be a bit strange while I did not think about Drem until now, will take another read.
Ok I'm going with skrammen as well, we need to get a lynch and although I would have liked to get someone else I think going after him is fine, too. ##vote Skrammen
Just to get this clear since at least I did not know last game: It's not a simple majority vote, we need 7 people to vote on someone or it's a no-lynch. Having 4 votes on someone and 8 votes spread out is not going to get the guy with 4 votes lynched.
I'll be the first to admit that i am not particularly talkative, although that's mostly because i don't have regular computer access at school.. I have been reading the thread through, and although i still hold zanfada in suspicion, i will also have to agree that SKrammen has not really contributed that much either.
His only notable post just recounts information that everyone should know (though some may not have read the thread too carefully and could've forgotten). Although i feel the need to point out, that SKrammen did call out Zanfada for being hasty to vote (even if he could later rescind the vote). If they were both scum, then it wouldn't make sense for them to call suspicion upon one another.
Zanfada also hasn't posted in a while, and the only notable parts of his posts were: asking the blues to post more frequently (though not to identify themselves), and to defend himself from hacklebeasts own accusations.
So, the people i'm currently very suspicious of are: SKrammen and Zanfada. When i get more time to really look at everyone's posts this might change, but it's just those 2 for now.
Mafia can't really kill me right now, because if they do and I flip green town gets massive amounts of information from previous posts since I was a topic the last pages. Same with zanfas, that is if he turns out to be green.
I think this sounds like you're already getting reasoning behind not being killed. You jump around a lot and most of your posts seem like you're going out of your way to let people know you're totally town. Other people look suspicious, but to me this looks like a balls out attempt to control the game yourself among newer players. For that reason...
Currently nobody has reached majority. risk.nuke, HarbingerOfDoom, xsksc, and Skrammen, have yet to vote. Please let myself or erandorr know if you've noticed a mistake.
The deadline to vote is 02:00 GMT (+00:00). A little over 7 hours remain in the day.
I personally have a good vote that I want to expound on right now, but I want to see more posting from that person before I cast it, as it may yield more information on him.
And now you have decided to vote me. Did you already make up your mind before I did my post? As far as I can tell, the only thing you seem to base your suspicion on is the fact that I made a point about timezones. I think you are over-analyzing things way too hard, stop looking for something who is not there.
lol just checked it myself and yeah got the same result. Zanfa get yourself in this thread and tell us what's going to happen with your vote. Are you going to keep voting for hacklebeast? I'm assuming you'll either change your vote to skrammen or me. A vote on yourself would be stupid and a vote on someone you're holding the only vote on is not going to get us anywhere, too. So voting for hacklebeast is not going to get us anywhere right now.
Also I would like to see those others guys stick to that rule. We need to lynch someone. Right now it's either zanfas, skrammen or me. A vote on someone else is a pretty heavy scumtell, so go ahead.
Also keep in mind there's probably at least 1 mafia around, or even two who already placed his/their vote/s to try and make people follow him. Especially if one of those 3 turns out to be mafia.
Definitely FOS on Zanfada now. Needlessly aggressive, fos on ciryandor for defending him, even though what you did at first was a smart and good thing to do as it opened discussion. And yeah, having almost no evidence for any of his fos but saying a lot of empty words is kinda :/ http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=278558¤tpage=11#210
Not once did you FoS on me, yet you preffered to vote me instead of zanfa. You also FoS'd Ciry but claim you didnt. You seem to be a bit everywhere, throwing suspicions left and right. To me, it appears like you are trying to be a bit of an instigator while saying very little of substance. You've posted nearly as little as I have done, and you say you vote me because of lack of activity? ##Vote Chocolate
Mafia can't really kill me right now, because if they do and I flip green town gets massive amounts of information from previous posts since I was a topic the last pages. Same with zanfas, that is if he turns out to be green.
I think this sounds like you're already getting reasoning behind not being killed. You jump around a lot and most of your posts seem like you're going out of your way to let people know you're totally town. Other people look suspicious, but to me this looks like a balls out attempt to control the game yourself among newer players. For that reason...
##Vote Toadesstern
well obviously because I am town No let's get this serious. At least one group of voters will have to change their mind. Right now we got 3 an skrammen, only 4 voters left + zanfa who's going to change his vote. So If everyone but one votes for skrammen we're able to get a lynch. That's not going to happen. Maybe one of those lurkers is going to get modkilled and won't show up at all. Skrammen himself is within those 5 left over voters, he won't vote for himself now will he? What happens if he is red and one of those voters left over is red, too? He surely won't vote for him and will have an easy time voting for zanfa or me. Same goes for zanfa votes and those on me.
We will need to voters from one of those 3 to one of those 2 remaining to make this happen. And about jumping around, well yeah it's day 1. I want to get as much "strange" posts from people as possible. So far we got a bunch and no matter who dies today, we'll have pretty good information about mafia.
Let's assume I'm red and I'm getting lynched. In that case you probably want to go after those who did not vote for me or did defend me. However if I get lynched and flip green or blue you got a pretty descend guess on who is mafia, because it's most likely 3 out of those 7 who need to vote for me. Same goes for everyone. If we get a no-lynch we're not getting information at all because noone will know for certain if whatever stories are true or not and we're just turning around.
Just to clear things up: I wrote that before xsksc and Skrammen posted, at least I did not see those posts. So my numbers in my example need to be changed. However, with skrammen voting for a no-lynch (read what i said about that and why that is the worst thing for town) I'm going to stick with him.
To be honest i was hoping my early vote would cause a bangwagon to analyze but it seems the mafia are playing to timid for that ploy to work. Which makes me think that the mafia are doing a lot of FOSing but not a lot of acting till they can slide in at the end. I think the majority of our day 1 info will be right at the end of the day with a quick bandwagon.
That said, the 3 people up for the chopping block are Skram, Toad, and myself. Out of those three Skram looks like the best target.
Toad has been actively attacking people and creating leads.
Skram doesn't seem like 100% scum to me but he seems like the best choice with lynch so close. He has been tentative to vote for anyone till chocolate threw a vote his way which forced him to act. I think he was hopping to slip by day one with attracting to much attention. Which is good enough for me. However if he turns up green I am going to be looking scummy as hell for join the bandwagon.
Everyone respond to everything somebody throws against you. Even small stuff. I know it can be done to get by for a while ignoring minor suspicions because "oh look, they dropped me" or "it doesn't seem important". However for everything you do respond to it gives town more information. There are a few more hours left so if you can ditch in a few last efforts.
On November 01 2011 02:03 Toadesstern wrote: I still don't like what risk is doing here: nothing. If he's not going to make a vote and is going to get modkilled that's fine with me (not really but I can't do a thing about it), however if he showes up sometimes soon and does NOT get modkilled I want a pretty damn good explanation for what he's doing. Scrammen seems to be a bit strange while I did not think about Drem until now, will take another read.
Toad, your play is inconsistant and all over the place. I can't tell if you're scum or just new. It's as if you're going for a town powerposition but you don't really know how to achieve it. I really don't like you're jumping on skrammen rather then defending yourself. ##Vote Toadesstern
Not posted a lot so far but he looks very strange to me. 1 vote and a FOS in 2 posts. I'd like to hear more out of you. I would also like to know why you defend toad in the first half of your post and then FOS on ciry for defending you. You said the only time you are defended is when scum try to buddy up to you... Seems very contradictory to me.
I'm not really seeing anything suspicious out of anyone else yet, need to hear from the inactives.
We do have to lynch someone today so please keep posting people!
I hope that is the right quote, I thought we were wasting our time going after toad for saying we all should post, I think the first 2 pages were just "post more guys" and not enough things of value.
The fos on ciry was more of an afterthought he defended me which pretty much stalled out my first vote because then everyone knew what the vote entailed (though it was pretty obvious). I lost a werewolf game recently were a goddamn scum befriended me and lost because of it so maybe it has been clouding my judgement on games since.
I am not going to lie, it was a fluff post. It give some interesting info though. Chocolate responded to it second posting about how it was fluff, seems like an easy bandwagon to get on. If I get lynched today my money is on him being scum right now.
You tend to say very little with very much words.. That seems to me like you are overcompensating for the lack of conclusive arguments.
just saw this and I agree, I am used to playing IRL and tend to ramble there, it does not translate well to the forums though and I will work on shorter concise points.
On November 01 2011 04:30 risk.nuke wrote: Everyone respond to everything somebody throws against you. Even small stuff. I know it can be done to get by for a while ignoring minor suspicions because "oh look, they dropped me" or "it doesn't seem important". However for everything you do respond to it gives town more information. There are a few more hours left so if you can ditch in a few last efforts.
On November 01 2011 02:03 Toadesstern wrote: I still don't like what risk is doing here: nothing. If he's not going to make a vote and is going to get modkilled that's fine with me (not really but I can't do a thing about it), however if he showes up sometimes soon and does NOT get modkilled I want a pretty damn good explanation for what he's doing. Scrammen seems to be a bit strange while I did not think about Drem until now, will take another read.
Toad, your play is inconsistant and all over the place. I can't tell if you're scum or just new. It's as if you're going for a town powerposition but you don't really know how to achieve it. I really don't like you're jumping on skrammen rather then defending yourself. ##Vote Toadesstern
me jumping on skrammen? I want to get a lynch, that's it and yeah skrammen sounds like a legit vote. I would have liked to get you lynched first but I'm ok with it the way it is, too^. Secondly I think I defended myself. I got a bunch fos from guys earlier and those backed off. You could just be a mafia thinking it's easy to get town to lynch toad because you're not voting for skrammen.
due to timezone difficulties I can't be on until the lynch :/ going to leave my vote on skrammen atm, zanfada still comes across as dodgy to me but skrammen looks like a better lynch for the moment. see you all tomorow and sorry I can't be on until the deadline!
oh and btw, since I was some sc while making my last post I only looked at what risk posted and not what he actually quoted. I asked you like 3 times to give an explanation for your aabstinence and you answer that with a text saying "guys, we need to anwser everything, no matter how small or insignificant (to you) the question might be" and yet you haven't come out and did what I wanted you to do: Explain why you are not posting and tell us about your thoughts.
I'm not having a problem with your vote here, but go ahead and explain it. You just said it' weird, while leaving out what I asked you to do 3 times. You're telling me that you don't like me to "jump" on skrammen without defending myself. Just go ahead and do the first step and I will gladly answer everything you want to know about me, my thoughts or my posts.
Definitely FOS on Zanfada now. Needlessly aggressive, fos on ciryandor for defending him, even though what you did at first was a smart and good thing to do as it opened discussion. And yeah, having almost no evidence for any of his fos but saying a lot of empty words is kinda :/ http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=278558¤tpage=11#210
Not once did you FoS on me, yet you preffered to vote me instead of zanfa. You also FoS'd Ciry but claim you didnt. You seem to be a bit everywhere, throwing suspicions left and right. To me, it appears like you are trying to be a bit of an instigator while saying very little of substance. You've posted nearly as little as I have done, and you say you vote me because of lack of activity? ##Vote Chocolate
It's day one, there are no leads except those that we can get from goading others. Nobody did anything to garner enough suspicion to warrant a vote in my opinion so I voted you, hoping that it would cause you to say something and it worked. I will probably take back my vote but I may not as I still need to digest what you said.
Also, about this thing about me "fos'ing ciry" Perhaps this is some weird way that I communicate that no one else uses, but
Needlessly aggressive, fos on ciryandor for defending him
to me seems like I was noting what zanfa said about ciry, since I also described zanfa about being needlessly aggressive.Hopefully that clears things up.
As mentioned before, his first few posts were rather empty/slightly scummy. He then comes into the thread over 2 hours after a vote is on him, and responds only to my much earlier FOS, ignoring the fact that there is a vote to lynch him. Perhaps an attempt to avoid drawing more attention to it and to himself? Either way his defenses have seemed rather weak, and his contributions to scum hunting have been minimal at best. What are your opinions of Toad and Zanfada, Skraamen? I'd be interested to hear them.
The reason I don't like the Skramen lynch is because nobody have tried to help him. Thats a pretty good indicator you're lynching a townie unless scum is throwing him under the bus.
Remember scum likes to get onboard an easy wagon. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Now, I am going to tell you how the Skrammen case started. Due to the massive amounts of texts and quotes in quotes I write in green and Ciryandor is underlined.
On October 31 2011 20:36 Chocolate wrote: Skrammen has contributed very little so far so until he talks more I will vote for him. ##vote Skrammen
This is not true, Skrammen haven't talked any less then several other people.
On November 01 2011 00:53 Toadesstern wrote: sadly noone made a statement about my vote ;( I actually did not want to vote for chocolate but I'd have loved to see reactions from people who I think are suspicious about my vote :/ first of all
Unvote## Chocolate
What do you people think about hyshes and risk? Risk is the one I'd like to see make a couple posts since he basicly said nothing and I don't know anything about him. While hyshes... I don't know, could be anything :p
that first sentence just made no sense, fixed it and hopefully it's clear what my intention was.
It's the time of day for most people. I'm about to sleep, so I'll miss around 8 hours of discussion, but I feel that Skrammen has been able to coast by the most, and next to that would be Drem903.
Putting pressure on him and explaining my vote to follow:
## Vote Skrammen
Skrammen's first game post is a greeting, nothing wrong there, but it's fluff to make sure he doesn't get modkilled.
On October 30 2011 14:42 Zanfada wrote: Day 1 it is very important not to let the mafia lurk and hide in the background. So we have to preasure them and force everyone to interact. If you look at the last mini mafia town lost because of inactivity. So we can't have anyone be inactive.
I guess to get things start hacklebeast hasn't posted anything yet. so until he speaks up or a better target comes along
##Vote hacklebeast
4 hours into the game and you go on and try to stir some discussion up? He wasnt the only one who had said nothing up to that point, why did you choose him? It seems a little bit... Dodgy to use a vote to pressure someone into talking more so soon I think.
And just a head's up: Since we have people from both sides of the pond in this game there is bound to be somewhat of a delay in answers and people might be working or sleeping when some discussions takes place. We should be somewhat tolerant of this, but obviously 24 hours of no posting is not good.
Now here he looks at Zanfada's early pressure and thinks it's scummy to randomly highlight someone, when it's actually good town play to be non-discriminating; then proceeds to state the obvious that certain conversation delays are going to happen simply because of timezones.
On October 31 2011 07:20 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: In the interest of getting some other possible discussions going...
Skrammen has now doubled his post count, using his first to say good morning and his second accuses someone for trying to stir up discussion with a vote "so soon", as well as a preemptive excuse for not being active:
And just a head's up: Since we have people from both sides of the pond in this game there is bound to be somewhat of a delay in answers and people might be working or sleeping when some discussions takes place. We should be somewhat tolerant of this, but obviously 24 hours of no posting is not good.
The only people that benefit from a delayed discussion is obviously the mafia, they'd rather it never happen. Also, while his statement is true, I think it was fairly obvious to most people, and scum always like to have an excuse to fall back on.
So FOS on Skrammen for now.
Ah. Well, you see I was only trying to clarify some things so they are clear. I did not however, encourage it.
The only people that benefit from a delayed discussion is obviously the mafia, they'd rather it never happen. Also, while his statement is true, I think it was fairly obvious to most people, and scum always like to have an excuse to fall back on.
I think we both might be talking without saying anything now; both of these things are quite obvious, yet we both had to say it. What I said was just that; A head's up just in case people did not know. Honestly I think this is pretty bad grounds for accusations. I still maintain that a vote 4 hours into the game is pretty suspicious, but not enough to be convinced he is red.
I can take my vote back at any time. The vote was just there to promote talking which it did just that.
What was alot more interesting was Toad's post and how it was received. I personally think blues should post and help the town or they stand out to mafia and playing safe and become much better targets. Also mafia rarely mention blues for the simple fact that it makes them look more like mafia hunting for blues with any mention of blues. The same goes for blues themselves, they want to hide with town and do their job. I think Toad was just trying to prevent what happened last game to happen this game. However his post doesn't say anything more then "post guys" which doesn't further along any conversation it just increase his post count which in my opinion is all mafia try to do for the first day. On October 30 2011 22:54 hacklebeast wrote: Show nested quote +
Unnecessarily trying to start a town panic? Baseless accusing people that, under your own admission, have no evidence against? Sounds like very mafia things to do. I'm not going to go so far as to cast my vote yet, but I'm watching you.
Besides, I could never have committed the crime. Gmarshal I could take or leave, but killing ponies? I don't have it in me to take out something this lovable.
I wasn't starting a town panic, though it seems to have caused you to panic a little. Your response to my vote seems to be an emotional plea involving ponies and a FOS but little more then that. It seems as if you are trying to not draw any sort of attention to yourself even after a vote has already been placed on you. Normally I would take this as a scum tell but it seems more like a newbie tell then a mafia at this point.
Then there is Ciryandor, he defended me and my baseless attack on someone. The only time I usually am defended is when scum are trying to buddy up with me. Or since he has played a few games he is just trying to let newbies know what I was doing. Still FOS for now.
This is his answer to why he did it, and to be honest, it worked, he got stuff going which is good. I will be keeping an eye out, but at this point his reasoning seems good enough for me. As you said earlier, delaying discussion is indicative of scummy behaviour, or perhaps it might not be? An elaborate ruse?
Here in this post he's very much guilty of pointing out something that works towards the scum-team's advantage, and that is to have fluff conversations regarding people who merit suspicion, but not applying enough pressure for him to actually do a vote.
Three posts, two on a very weak FoS, just enough to evade proper scrutiny. I think this is worth my vote.
Alot of text but contentwise it's an exaggeration to call this case weak.
On November 01 2011 02:29 Toadesstern wrote: Ok I'm going with skrammen as well, we need to get a lynch and although I would have liked to get someone else I think going after him is fine, too. ##vote Skrammen
Just to get this clear since at least I did not know last game: It's not a simple majority vote, we need 7 people to vote on someone or it's a no-lynch. Having 4 votes on someone and 8 votes spread out is not going to get the guy with 4 votes lynched.
Bandwagon is forming up, and still there is nothing solid on Skrammen, and what the hell is the part where he admits he'd rather want to go for someone else but will settle for this guy whom we have nothing on. Why would a townie want to lynch a random person when the chances of catching a scum is 3/12. Lynching a town gives the dt less rounds to find scum.
On November 01 2011 04:01 xsksc wrote: ##vote Skrammen
I'm still suspicious of zanfada, I want to see him reply soon. I could well change my vote to him, depends on his next post.
Again, no arguments to why we should lynch this guy ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This case is a clear bandwagon based on little/nothing. Alot of people here are new which makes an unquestioned bandwagon all the more dangerous. Don't jump on something you don't feel strongly about yourself, otherwise we will be no match for the scum.
But most interestingly, I feel the need to emphasize this again. Nobody is taking his side.
you are defending him and I still think you're scum, after that wall of text I still (or even more) think you are. Also, everyone voting me and zanfa is taking his side because they are blocking a lynch! Dont just say noone's defending him. And you're misinterpreting what I said. My point was: I think he might be scum, like 33-45%, while you're my number #1 right now, especialy given that last post :p
The most important part right here: You think Skrammen is the easy wagon? I thought the easy wagon is either zanfa or me for mafia since there used to be always a couple of votes on both of us. Something like 1 or 2. Skrammen only started once ciry voted for him. Again, I would love to get you lynched first but he's looking scummy too and I for sure don't want a no-lynch as that's just the same as lynching a townie while leaving everything in the dark because we got no information out of votings or posts.
But most interestingly, I feel the need to emphasize this again. Nobody is taking his side.
Allow me. Or at least my view on it.
I would say to those voting Skrammen, is inactivity the only reason? I'd have thought if he WAS scummy he'd have come out and said SOMETHING by now, rather than just toppling over without a fight. Even a new scum would try and do something to alleviate themselves wouldn't they?
Voting the inactives isn't a bad choice for what was pointed out earlier (was it by Toads?), that at the very least if they AREN'T scum then they're not that helpful either. But I think the scum would have shown themselves by now.
I also think the fact that he has the MOST votes is telling more of the voters than anything. Scum are more likely to team up votes right? So out of those of you who HAVE voted on him, Zanfa, Xsksc, Harbinger, Chocolate, Toad, Ciry... as I type this that's the first time I've counted 6 already?
I agree we should lynch someone suspicious, but unless someone can give me a better reason than "he hasn't posted much", I can't agree to the Skrammen lynching. I still think Toad is an obvious read, though Zanfa has been awfully quiet since the blame shifted away from him.
A question though:
Harbinger's post history seems to be about 50% condemning Skrammen even before other people joined in, and he hasn't really relented or even looked much at anyone else. Why are you so focused on Skrammen?
Toad. My point is you say you think he is scum 33-45 percent while at the same time avoiding providing any arguments as to why. Even in your response you fail to do so but instead tried to defuse it into a scenario where we are just OMGUS-ing eachother. You're making it sound as if I were your suspect all along but it's actually only since I voted for you.
If he had thought I were scum he would had written what he had on me in the thread because thats what townies do. This is a scumslip. Look at this, I am now his main suspect for busting a bandwagon against someone he claimed to be 33-45% sure of.
Note this: Hypotheticly If I were scum and Skrammen is town, would I halt the lynch? Ofcourse not. So logicly I could only be scum if Skrammen is scum, and thats disregarding the possibilty that I am town and wrong about him beeing town. And yet I am his top suspect. That does not add upp.
He seemed slightly scummy and fairly non-contributing since the start. I then mentioned it again as he still had not responded to what I said earlier about him. He then came in with a rather weak defense against only 1 or 2 of the charges leveled at him and disappeared again, after throwing a vote on someone who is not one of the main suspects for seemingly anyone else.
As for the focus, focusing is how you get things done. If I post that I am suspicious of 6 people, what have I accomplished? Yes I've perhaps been tunneling him more than I should, but I assure you I've been keeping a watch on others as well.
If Skrammen wants any chance of me changing my vote from him to someone else, I need him to answer my earlier request, which I will repeat here: What are your opinions of Toad and Zanfada, Skrammen?
He needs to defend himself more if he wants to lose my vote, and probably others (can't say for sure). Also @risk.nuke, I was amused when I saw your reasoning behind not voting on skrammen. It seems a little hypocritical to defend someone and say nobody is defending him. But you still bring up a valid point.
On November 01 2011 08:07 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: If Skrammen wants any chance of me changing my vote from him to someone else, I need him to answer my earlier request, which I will repeat here: What are your opinions of Toad and Zanfada, Skrammen?
On November 01 2011 07:49 risk.nuke wrote: Toad. My point is you say you think he is scum 33-45 percent while at the same time avoiding providing any arguments as to why. Even in your response you fail to do so but instead tried to defuse it into a scenario where we are just OMGUS-ing eachother. You're making it sound as if I were your suspect all along but it's actually only since I voted for you.
If he had thought I were scum he would had written what he had on me in the thread because thats what townies do. This is a scumslip. Look at this, I am now his main suspect for busting a bandwagon against someone he claimed to be 33-45% sure of.
Note this: Hypotheticly If I were scum and Skrammen is town, would I halt the lynch? Ofcourse not. So logicly I could only be scum if Skrammen is scum, and thats disregarding the possibilty that I am town and wrong about him beeing town. And yet I am his top suspect. That does not add upp.
and my point is that I'm obviously not going to vote for myself. And I still don't think what we got on zanfa is something worth a lot.
If that summary of votes is correct we still need one more vote to get a lynch at all. That is if skrammen is red and no mafia voted for him and therefore can't change his vote.
As I have previously stated, I've got some suspicions regarding Zanfada. He hasnt posted much since the heat dropped of him, not since you decided to bandwagon me. He is writing a lot without saying much, and he is pretty agressive.
I still maintain that these are poor grounds of accusation.
At first glance, Toadsstern seem very eager to appear very pro-town. I dont think I like the idea of lynching for the sake of lynching. + Show Spoiler +
The most important part right here: You think Skrammen is the easy wagon? I thought the easy wagon is either zanfa or me for mafia since there used to be always a couple of votes on both of us. Something like 1 or 2. Skrammen only started once ciry voted for him. Again, I would love to get you lynched first but he's looking scummy too and I for sure don't want a no-lynch as that's just the same as lynching a townie while leaving everything in the dark because we got no information out of votings or posts.
But thats not strictly true, is it? You voted me after the heat dropped of zanfada, and the wagon came-a rolling my way. Most of his other posts are quite confusing, which may or may not be because that his first language is not english, but it can be a good excuse.
If you decide to lynch me anyway, and I do flip green, there's a good chance all of the scum will be among those who are most adamant about lynching me. If I flip red, then risk and bunneh got some 'splaining to do.
Why the wagon is on skrammen and on nobody else is because Ciryandor voted for him. Ciryandor have been trying to take a leading role and taking charge of town.
Ciry have been tring to establish himself as one of the better players. And his been pretty pro-town. That's why this post is so suspicious because it's shit in and Ciry should know this.
But jesus christ I'm even off tracking myself, Why are you still blind and talking about Skrammen. Toadesstern have accidently done several scumslips, wake up!
On November 01 2011 09:25 risk.nuke wrote: Why the wagon is on skrammen and on nobody else is because Ciryandor voted for him. Ciryandor have been trying to take a leading role and taking charge of town.
Ciry have been tring to establish himself as one of the better players. And his been pretty pro-town. That's why this post is so suspicious because it's shit in and Ciry should know this.
Well if Skrammen turns out green we will have an idea of who to go for next/investigate. If Skrammen turns out red then we know almost for certain who to go for. To be honest we barely have anything to work with now and he seems to be the prime suspect (at least imo he is). Also the risk vs. reward is pretty good. If we take out a mafia there are only two left and they won't be too hard to find. If we take out a town then we should have some some good ideas of who the mafia are, although we will be a little crippled vote-wise.
On November 01 2011 09:32 risk.nuke wrote: But jesus christ I'm even off tracking myself, Why are you still blind and talking about Skrammen. Toadesstern have accidently done several scumslips, wake up!
Basically what I tried to point out (I'm not the most eloquent with words ).
I think though there's a big bandwagon train on Skrammen based on very little, and the main perpetrators seem less than clean. There's only a bit of time left to vote, I hope people work out that they've already slipped into a mob mentality rather than voting for a lynch with good reasoning.
TL will be down for extended maintenance in 06:20:29.
If you decide to lynch me anyway, and I do flip green, there's a good chance all of the scum will be among those who are most adamant about lynching me. If I flip red, then risk and bunneh got some 'splaining to do.{
This last statement is really odd, If you are town then there is no reason to bring it up. This seems like a scum slip to me but why say you might be red if you are scum...
On November 01 2011 09:25 risk.nuke wrote: Why the wagon is on skrammen and on nobody else is because Ciryandor voted for him. Ciryandor have been trying to take a leading role and taking charge of town.
Ciry have been tring to establish himself as one of the better players. And his been pretty pro-town. That's why this post is so suspicious because it's shit in and Ciry should know this.
I know it's a shitty case, BUT I'm NOT very surprised people jumped on it, and that he's now the guy who's probably going to get lynched. Why? Because NOBODY has built a similar case profile for anyone else they want to lynch. People here are too scared of having a proper read-through of a player and impeaching them on it. Nobody has put together a summary of why they think Toadesstern or Zanfada or anyone else for that matter is a good lynch. Also, two of the six votes on im are from the guys who are most likely to be lynch targets if he wasn't there. That's self-preservation activity right there, and I can't blame them for doing that.
The vengeful spirits of newbie-ville had returned to haunt its inhabitants. GMarshal could be heard wailing into the night. Avenge me and my ponies! For the sake of friendship! Too bad nobody listened.
There was no lynch.
You have 24 hours to submit your night actions. Please remember to send them to both myself and erandorr. Thanks!
On November 01 2011 11:30 GMarshal wrote: [spectral voice] Vengeance will be mine, you will carry it out, or I shall avenge myself on YOU[/spectral voice]
got home from university now and yeah let's get a little analysis what happened last day.
Let's just pretend we don't know a thing. In that scernario everything's possible. I could be green, I could be red, Skrammen could be green and Skrammen could be red. Same with Zanfa and risk but I'm going to talk about Skrammen and me since the two of us are the main subjects in this thread right now.
1) Both red Let's start with the easy one and pretend both Skrammen and I am red. In that case the two of us are stupid and I'm blaming him to be mafia while he is blaming me to be mafia. I know we're not really blameing each other but I did vote for him so I guess that counts, too. That does not sound like a good plan for mafia imo.
2) Both green Next possibilty: We're both green. If that turns out to be true towns horribly fucked. Not because of the fact that both of us are green but since we didn't even get a majority on a green while mafia is probably even helping us or at least spreading their votes and therefore we might have 1 or 2 mafias on Skrammen as well. And still we don't get a majority. If that's true we got a major problem because we're not going to get a lynch anytime soon (= free kill for mafia without having the chance to kill a mafia or at least get GRANTED information). => pretty much everyone could be mafia because they're able to vote whoever they want without having to manipulate votes at least a bit.
3) Skrammen green, I'm red In that case town got a heavy problem as well. Skrammen was closest for having a majority and it's pretty much the same as the second possibility: I'm mafia and I went for a wagon issued by someone else and still town hasn't got a majority. That would mean that out of those 6 votes probably 2 or 3 votes are issued by mafias (my vote at least + maybe my buddies) while 3 townies voted for Skrammen, 3 voted for me, 2 voted for Zanfa and 1 voted for Chocolate. That's not exactly what you want to do as town, no matter what.
4) I'm green, Skrammen is red In that situation mafia is probably not going to vote for skrammen in the first place. They want to safe their buddy as long as it's possible without leaking information of who actually is mafia out of votingbehaviors right before the deadline. Also this would mean we got at most 1 mafia voting for Skrammen (that is if they got balls). I doubt they got the balls to put their mafia buddy on a 6-votes position themselves, just to make those other 2 mafias really hidden. There could always be a hero votechange 1h before the deadline which would have made a lynch. So in that scenario we probably got about 5 townies voting for Skrammen, maybe it's even 6, while mafia is trying to get us on someone else. Therefore they got either 2 votes on me, 1 vote on me + 1 vote on zanfa or 2 votes on zanfa (the third one is Skrammens vote on choc), while 3 townies did not choose to vote for Skrammen.
For me it's kind of clear. I can rule out possibilty 1 (let's face it, noone's that stupid). I think 3 is pretty unlikely. I just think town should be able to get more than 3 votes on a single person without mafia therefore I think there's no mafia votes on Skrammen. If there are we're really fucked. 2 and 4 could be possible in my opinion. Having 5 or 6 townies able to focus their votes on 1 single person while 3 are not sure what to do sounds reasonable for me (compare with example 3: I don't think we got only 3 people being able to focus their votes while the rest is spreading their votes for whatever reason). Therefore I'd say its 4 > 2 > 3 > 1
I'm still not saying I think Skrammen's 100% sure red, and if he's green than risk is green as well. But I think it's a better explanation than the two of us being green or 'me red + Skrammen green' or both red.
If you decide to lynch me anyway, and I do flip green, there's a good chance all of the scum will be among those who are most adamant about lynching me. If I flip red, then risk and bunneh got some 'splaining to do.
This last statement is really odd, If you are town then there is no reason to bring it up. This seems like a scum slip to me but why say you might be red if you are scum...
can you comment on this skram, the choice of words is still bothering me.
On November 02 2011 00:48 Toadesstern wrote: got home from university now and yeah let's get a little analysis what happened last day.
Let's just pretend we don't know a thing. In that scernario everything's possible. I could be green, I could be red, Skrammen could be green and Skrammen could be red. Same with Zanfa and risk but I'm going to talk about Skrammen and me since the two of us are the main subjects in this thread right now.
1) Both red Let's start with the easy one and pretend both Skrammen and I am red. In that case the two of us are stupid and I'm blaming him to be mafia while he is blaming me to be mafia. I know we're not really blameing each other but I did vote for him so I guess that counts, too. That does not sound like a good plan for mafia imo.
2) Both green Next possibilty: We're both green. If that turns out to be true towns horribly fucked. Not because of the fact that both of us are green but since we didn't even get a majority on a green while mafia is probably even helping us or at least spreading their votes and therefore we might have 1 or 2 mafias on Skrammen as well. And still we don't get a majority. If that's true we got a major problem because we're not going to get a lynch anytime soon (= free kill for mafia without having the chance to kill a mafia or at least get GRANTED information). => pretty much everyone could be mafia because they're able to vote whoever they want without having to manipulate votes at least a bit.
3) Skrammen green, I'm red In that case town got a heavy problem as well. Skrammen was closest for having a majority and it's pretty much the same as the second possibility: I'm mafia and I went for a wagon issued by someone else and still town hasn't got a majority. That would mean that out of those 6 votes probably 2 or 3 votes are issued by mafias (my vote at least + maybe my buddies) while 3 townies voted for Skrammen, 3 voted for me, 2 voted for Zanfa and 1 voted for Chocolate. That's not exactly what you want to do as town, no matter what.
4) I'm green, Skrammen is red In that situation mafia is probably not going to vote for skrammen in the first place. They want to safe their buddy as long as it's possible without leaking information of who actually is mafia out of votingbehaviors right before the deadline. Also this would mean we got at most 1 mafia voting for Skrammen (that is if they got balls). I doubt they got the balls to put their mafia buddy on a 6-votes position themselves, just to make those other 2 mafias really hidden. There could always be a hero votechange 1h before the deadline which would have made a lynch. So in that scenario we probably got about 5 townies voting for Skrammen, maybe it's even 6, while mafia is trying to get us on someone else. Therefore they got either 2 votes on me, 1 vote on me + 1 vote on zanfa or 2 votes on zanfa (the third one is Skrammens vote on choc), while 3 townies did not choose to vote for Skrammen.
For me it's kind of clear. I can rule out possibilty 1 (let's face it, noone's that stupid). I think 3 is pretty unlikely. I just think town should be able to get more than 3 votes on a single person without mafia therefore I think there's no mafia votes on Skrammen. If there are we're really fucked. 2 and 4 could be possible in my opinion. Having 5 or 6 townies able to focus their votes on 1 single person while 3 are not sure what to do sounds reasonable for me (compare with example 3: I don't think we got only 3 people being able to focus their votes while the rest is spreading their votes for whatever reason). Therefore I'd say its 4 > 2 > 3 > 1
I'm still not saying I think Skrammen's 100% sure red, and if he's green than risk is green as well. But I think it's a better explanation than the two of us being green or 'me red + Skrammen green' or both red.
1. seems indeed very unlikely 2. is still possible, since it's a newbie game and we are all a bit unfamiliar with the way things go. I heard last newbie game had alot of modkills? 3. I have actually no problem believing this one. Stating that the town is fucked is not really an argument for likelyhood 4. This senario is actually less likely for me than 3. This is a newbie game, some of us are unfamiliar with the way things go (like me) and so only a few town-votes don't really suprise me at all.
the problem with 3 is that it would mean that we're not able to get more than 3 votes focussed on someone and I think that is very unlikely because that's 6 (!) guys who are spreading votes. Not the fact that town would be screwed if 3 (pretty much the same as 2) turns out to be true is the thing that makes it the easiest / most likely explanation. I don't know how you guys approach this game but I figured people know that we need to lynch people to get something going.
I got to add that I probably forgot one solution. Maybe people didn't read the first post in this thread carefully and did not read my post about it pointing it out again: This game has no simple majority rule. Having 6 votes on Skrammen was not enough to get him lynched although he was the one with the most votes on the list. If there's a couple of people who did not know that for whatever reason, it would be another explanation for why we're not even able to lynch a townie (talking about scenario 2 and 3) because they thought 6 on Skrammen is already enough to get them lynched and no need to change votes.
If you decide to lynch me anyway, and I do flip green, there's a good chance all of the scum will be among those who are most adamant about lynching me. If I flip red, then risk and bunneh got some 'splaining to do.
This last statement is really odd, If you are town then there is no reason to bring it up. This seems like a scum slip to me but why say you might be red if you are scum...
can you comment on this skram, the choice of words is still bothering me.
Just stating the obvious. Why say I might red if I am scum? Well, if I was, would I tell you? Are you desperatly trying to find a reason to get me lynched, again?
What about you. So far, the only thing you have done is come in, instigate somthing on someone else, defend yourself when you got under pressure only to disappear again. And here you are again.
On November 02 2011 02:03 Toadesstern wrote: the problem with 3 is that it would mean that we're not able to get more than 3 votes focussed on someone and I think that is very unlikely because that's 6 (!) guys who are spreading votes. Not the fact that town would be screwed if 3 (pretty much the same as 2) turns out to be true is the thing that makes it the easiest / most likely explanation. I don't know how you guys approach this game but I figured people know that we need to lynch people to get something going.
I got to add that I probably forgot one solution. Maybe people didn't read the first post in this thread carefully and did not read my post about it pointing it out again: This game has no simple majority rule. Having 6 votes on Skrammen was not enough to get him lynched although he was the one with the most votes on the list. If there's a couple of people who did not know that for whatever reason, it would be another explanation for why we're not even able to lynch a townie (talking about scenario 2 and 3) because they thought 6 on Skrammen is already enough to get them lynched and no need to change votes.
I'm still not excluding 3 as a possibility. If we faced this situation on day 2, i would agree.. but i don't see any reason to exclude option 3 on day 1 just because it would be bad play by the town.
On November 02 2011 00:48 Toadesstern wrote: got home from university now and yeah let's get a little analysis what happened last day.
Let's just pretend we don't know a thing. In that scernario everything's possible. I could be green, I could be red, Skrammen could be green and Skrammen could be red. Same with Zanfa and risk but I'm going to talk about Skrammen and me since the two of us are the main subjects in this thread right now.
1) Both red Let's start with the easy one and pretend both Skrammen and I am red. In that case the two of us are stupid and I'm blaming him to be mafia while he is blaming me to be mafia. I know we're not really blameing each other but I did vote for him so I guess that counts, too. That does not sound like a good plan for mafia imo.
2) Both green Next possibilty: We're both green. If that turns out to be true towns horribly fucked. Not because of the fact that both of us are green but since we didn't even get a majority on a green while mafia is probably even helping us or at least spreading their votes and therefore we might have 1 or 2 mafias on Skrammen as well. And still we don't get a majority. If that's true we got a major problem because we're not going to get a lynch anytime soon (= free kill for mafia without having the chance to kill a mafia or at least get GRANTED information). => pretty much everyone could be mafia because they're able to vote whoever they want without having to manipulate votes at least a bit.
3) Skrammen green, I'm red In that case town got a heavy problem as well. Skrammen was closest for having a majority and it's pretty much the same as the second possibility: I'm mafia and I went for a wagon issued by someone else and still town hasn't got a majority. That would mean that out of those 6 votes probably 2 or 3 votes are issued by mafias (my vote at least + maybe my buddies) while 3 townies voted for Skrammen, 3 voted for me, 2 voted for Zanfa and 1 voted for Chocolate. That's not exactly what you want to do as town, no matter what.
4) I'm green, Skrammen is red In that situation mafia is probably not going to vote for skrammen in the first place. They want to safe their buddy as long as it's possible without leaking information of who actually is mafia out of votingbehaviors right before the deadline. Also this would mean we got at most 1 mafia voting for Skrammen (that is if they got balls). I doubt they got the balls to put their mafia buddy on a 6-votes position themselves, just to make those other 2 mafias really hidden. There could always be a hero votechange 1h before the deadline which would have made a lynch. So in that scenario we probably got about 5 townies voting for Skrammen, maybe it's even 6, while mafia is trying to get us on someone else. Therefore they got either 2 votes on me, 1 vote on me + 1 vote on zanfa or 2 votes on zanfa (the third one is Skrammens vote on choc), while 3 townies did not choose to vote for Skrammen.
For me it's kind of clear. I can rule out possibilty 1 (let's face it, noone's that stupid). I think 3 is pretty unlikely. I just think town should be able to get more than 3 votes on a single person without mafia therefore I think there's no mafia votes on Skrammen. If there are we're really fucked. 2 and 4 could be possible in my opinion. Having 5 or 6 townies able to focus their votes on 1 single person while 3 are not sure what to do sounds reasonable for me (compare with example 3: I don't think we got only 3 people being able to focus their votes while the rest is spreading their votes for whatever reason). Therefore I'd say its 4 > 2 > 3 > 1
I'm still not saying I think Skrammen's 100% sure red, and if he's green than risk is green as well. But I think it's a better explanation than the two of us being green or 'me red + Skrammen green' or both red.
I agree, both red is almost impossible, especially considering how hard you pushed to get that one single extra vote.
If you're both green then we have several issues. One would be we don't actually have a real clue as to who the scum are, since the 2 of you are our 2 main candidates. Both green seems unlikely given that there's a real case for both of you at this point.
The decision then lies in who is red and who is green. If he is red, then I don't have a clue who his buddies are, but likely one of them must have voted for him. The other voters just don't strike me as particularly scummy just yet. If YOU are red however, then you'd be on the right train voting the person with the highest votes. I still don't like your case against him basically being "He didn't say enough". For him I haven't seen enough to know for certain, maybe 60% if it wasn't for you. But I'm 85% on yourself. You FOSd around a while and joined the majority (granted you voted just early enough that it wasn't a guaranteed majority on him, but it was late enough to know the general feeling of the group).
That's what I think of the Skrammen/Toad situation anyway. I've got to eat, while I flick through the other posters.
I'm not excluding 3 for you as well. It's definitly possible, at least more than both of us are red. Still think that in particular #4 is more of a nice explanation as it does not require half town to be a bunch of morons to be possibly true :p
On November 02 2011 00:48 Toadesstern wrote: got home from university now and yeah let's get a little analysis what happened last day.
Let's just pretend we don't know a thing. In that scernario everything's possible. I could be green, I could be red, Skrammen could be green and Skrammen could be red. Same with Zanfa and risk but I'm going to talk about Skrammen and me since the two of us are the main subjects in this thread right now.
1) Both red Let's start with the easy one and pretend both Skrammen and I am red. In that case the two of us are stupid and I'm blaming him to be mafia while he is blaming me to be mafia. I know we're not really blameing each other but I did vote for him so I guess that counts, too. That does not sound like a good plan for mafia imo.
2) Both green Next possibilty: We're both green. If that turns out to be true towns horribly fucked. Not because of the fact that both of us are green but since we didn't even get a majority on a green while mafia is probably even helping us or at least spreading their votes and therefore we might have 1 or 2 mafias on Skrammen as well. And still we don't get a majority. If that's true we got a major problem because we're not going to get a lynch anytime soon (= free kill for mafia without having the chance to kill a mafia or at least get GRANTED information). => pretty much everyone could be mafia because they're able to vote whoever they want without having to manipulate votes at least a bit.
3) Skrammen green, I'm red In that case town got a heavy problem as well. Skrammen was closest for having a majority and it's pretty much the same as the second possibility: I'm mafia and I went for a wagon issued by someone else and still town hasn't got a majority. That would mean that out of those 6 votes probably 2 or 3 votes are issued by mafias (my vote at least + maybe my buddies) while 3 townies voted for Skrammen, 3 voted for me, 2 voted for Zanfa and 1 voted for Chocolate. That's not exactly what you want to do as town, no matter what.
4) I'm green, Skrammen is red In that situation mafia is probably not going to vote for skrammen in the first place. They want to safe their buddy as long as it's possible without leaking information of who actually is mafia out of votingbehaviors right before the deadline. Also this would mean we got at most 1 mafia voting for Skrammen (that is if they got balls). I doubt they got the balls to put their mafia buddy on a 6-votes position themselves, just to make those other 2 mafias really hidden. There could always be a hero votechange 1h before the deadline which would have made a lynch. So in that scenario we probably got about 5 townies voting for Skrammen, maybe it's even 6, while mafia is trying to get us on someone else. Therefore they got either 2 votes on me, 1 vote on me + 1 vote on zanfa or 2 votes on zanfa (the third one is Skrammens vote on choc), while 3 townies did not choose to vote for Skrammen.
For me it's kind of clear. I can rule out possibilty 1 (let's face it, noone's that stupid). I think 3 is pretty unlikely. I just think town should be able to get more than 3 votes on a single person without mafia therefore I think there's no mafia votes on Skrammen. If there are we're really fucked. 2 and 4 could be possible in my opinion. Having 5 or 6 townies able to focus their votes on 1 single person while 3 are not sure what to do sounds reasonable for me (compare with example 3: I don't think we got only 3 people being able to focus their votes while the rest is spreading their votes for whatever reason). Therefore I'd say its 4 > 2 > 3 > 1
I'm still not saying I think Skrammen's 100% sure red, and if he's green than risk is green as well. But I think it's a better explanation than the two of us being green or 'me red + Skrammen green' or both red.
1) seems unlikely but if 2 mafia keep pointing at each other and get the town split in half then it will be very hard for us to ever get a lynch off making us easy pickings for night hits.
2)If both of you are green then what did the mafia do voting yesterday? With 2 greens on the chopping block if one bandwagon failed they would have started another for the other imo to get atleast 1 town killed. Instead they let the lynch fall apart which makes me think 1 of you are mafia.
3) This is what the votes are kind of showing, 3 townies for both of you and then 3 mafia for skram to save you. I voted for skram to save myself, he hasn't done any analysis other then superficial placing FOS on my for post crap which is just as much as he has done.
4)I am leaning towards this option out of the 4, skram's bandwagon happened throughout the day, however if skram is green then I think chocolate is red.
I think one of you are probably mafia but I am not sure which, with the way the votes are split it seems more likely that Toad is mafia over Skram.
@skram I hopeing to get more then 4 lines of counterattacks (as town the more information you give will help me analyize and confirm that you are town).
Just stating the obvious. Why say I might red if I am scum? Well, if I was, would I tell you? Are you desperatly trying to find a reason to get me lynched, again?
If i can get a better read on you and who you think is guilty rather then quick posts not explaining much then I could leave you be, but right now I have a null read on you, you are all over the place, half the time I think you are town the other half i think you are mafia, I just dont have a good enough read on you to determine if you are town or not.
So while reviewing the voting and the resulting no-lynch, I noticed something very interesting from Drem:
So, the people i'm currently very suspicious of are: SKrammen and Zanfada. When i get more time to really look at everyone's posts this might change, but it's just those 2 for now.
##vote Zanfada
If you were very suspicious of both of them, why would you leave your vote on Zanfada? At the time of your voting, you had the option to make it 2 votes for Zanfada, or 4 votes for Skrammen. If your goal was to get scum lynched, and you were very suspicious of Skrammen, why place your vote in a way that greatly increases the odds of a no-lynch rather than nearly guaranteeing a lynch on Skrammen?
I would also like a bit more from hyshes on why he voted Zanfada, considering his voting post was the following:
I don't watn to be modkilled, so i'm going to cast a vote following my feeling here.
##vote Zanfada
Do you still think he is scum? Were you around at all after more votes were in? If so, what was your reasoning for leaving your vote on Zanfada, rather than switching it to Toad? Since the failed lynch you seem to be focusing more on Toad, but haven't really made a committal statement yet, do you believe Toad to be scum?
I would also like to call some attention to Hacklebeast, he has made a total of two posts all game. He has made more posts on TL outside of the mafia game than in it during the game so far. Hacklebeast, stop lurking and start posting more of your thoughts in here. You're flying under the radar so far, and I don't like that.
On October 30 2011 14:42 Zanfada wrote: Day 1 it is very important not to let the mafia lurk and hide in the background. So we have to preasure them and force everyone to interact. If you look at the last mini mafia town lost because of inactivity. So we can't have anyone be inactive.
I guess to get things start hacklebeast hasn't posted anything yet. so until he speaks up or a better target comes along
##Vote hacklebeast
Unnecessarily trying to start a town panic? Baseless accusing people that, under your own admission, have no evidence against? Sounds like very mafia things to do. I'm not going to go so far as to cast my vote yet, but I'm watching you.
Besides, I could never have committed the crime. Gmarshal I could take or leave, but killing ponies? I don't have it in me to take out something this lovable.
## vote toadesstern
I think his moves have been shady since the beginning. First tries to get the important figures to revel themselves (not explicitly, but if a lurker suddenly started posting significantly after it would give mafia a good clue), then follows it up with a lot of talk about the necessity to kill lurkers. To top it off he fingers chocolate only to rescind his vote after no one else follows suit.
On November 02 2011 00:48 Toadesstern wrote: got home from university now and yeah let's get a little analysis what happened last day.
Let's just pretend we don't know a thing. In that scernario everything's possible. I could be green, I could be red, Skrammen could be green and Skrammen could be red. Same with Zanfa and risk but I'm going to talk about Skrammen and me since the two of us are the main subjects in this thread right now.
1) Both red Let's start with the easy one and pretend both Skrammen and I am red. In that case the two of us are stupid and I'm blaming him to be mafia while he is blaming me to be mafia. I know we're not really blameing each other but I did vote for him so I guess that counts, too. That does not sound like a good plan for mafia imo.
2) Both green Next possibilty: We're both green. If that turns out to be true towns horribly fucked. Not because of the fact that both of us are green but since we didn't even get a majority on a green while mafia is probably even helping us or at least spreading their votes and therefore we might have 1 or 2 mafias on Skrammen as well. And still we don't get a majority. If that's true we got a major problem because we're not going to get a lynch anytime soon (= free kill for mafia without having the chance to kill a mafia or at least get GRANTED information). => pretty much everyone could be mafia because they're able to vote whoever they want without having to manipulate votes at least a bit.
3) Skrammen green, I'm red In that case town got a heavy problem as well. Skrammen was closest for having a majority and it's pretty much the same as the second possibility: I'm mafia and I went for a wagon issued by someone else and still town hasn't got a majority. That would mean that out of those 6 votes probably 2 or 3 votes are issued by mafias (my vote at least + maybe my buddies) while 3 townies voted for Skrammen, 3 voted for me, 2 voted for Zanfa and 1 voted for Chocolate. That's not exactly what you want to do as town, no matter what.
4) I'm green, Skrammen is red In that situation mafia is probably not going to vote for skrammen in the first place. They want to safe their buddy as long as it's possible without leaking information of who actually is mafia out of votingbehaviors right before the deadline. Also this would mean we got at most 1 mafia voting for Skrammen (that is if they got balls). I doubt they got the balls to put their mafia buddy on a 6-votes position themselves, just to make those other 2 mafias really hidden. There could always be a hero votechange 1h before the deadline which would have made a lynch. So in that scenario we probably got about 5 townies voting for Skrammen, maybe it's even 6, while mafia is trying to get us on someone else. Therefore they got either 2 votes on me, 1 vote on me + 1 vote on zanfa or 2 votes on zanfa (the third one is Skrammens vote on choc), while 3 townies did not choose to vote for Skrammen.
For me it's kind of clear. I can rule out possibilty 1 (let's face it, noone's that stupid). I think 3 is pretty unlikely. I just think town should be able to get more than 3 votes on a single person without mafia therefore I think there's no mafia votes on Skrammen. If there are we're really fucked. 2 and 4 could be possible in my opinion. Having 5 or 6 townies able to focus their votes on 1 single person while 3 are not sure what to do sounds reasonable for me (compare with example 3: I don't think we got only 3 people being able to focus their votes while the rest is spreading their votes for whatever reason). Therefore I'd say its 4 > 2 > 3 > 1
I'm still not saying I think Skrammen's 100% sure red, and if he's green than risk is green as well. But I think it's a better explanation than the two of us being green or 'me red + Skrammen green' or both red.
3) This is what the votes are kind of showing, 3 townies for both of you and then 3 mafia for skram to save you. I voted for skram to save myself, he hasn't done any analysis other then superficial placing FOS on my for post crap which is just as much as he has done.
You're missing two major points here: First of all, it would not be 3 votes on skramm and me but 3 votes on skramm, 3 votes on me and 3 more votes spreaded (that's 2 on you and 1 on choc if you assume that 3 mafias are on skramm). Secondly the skramm wagon happened way earlier that things got "serious" about my votes. He got 3 votes on him while I had 1 and we both got to 5-3 pretty fast. Still, even in that situations there's no need for my hypothetical mafia buddies to come and safe me when he got 5 votes which turned out to be 6 later on. You need 7 votes and if 3 out those 6 votes on skramm are scum, than there's pretty much no way a lynch on my could have happend. It would be 6 on skramm and 6 on me, given that every single voter who voted for you (or choc) switched to me and on top of that it would have needed more people switching to me from skramm than people who're switching to skramm from me (at least one more). If I were mafia I would have told my buddies to chill the fuck out because there's not going to be that much changes happening.
On November 02 2011 03:52 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: So while reviewing the voting and the resulting no-lynch, I noticed something very interesting from Drem:
So, the people i'm currently very suspicious of are: SKrammen and Zanfada. When i get more time to really look at everyone's posts this might change, but it's just those 2 for now.
##vote Zanfada
If you were very suspicious of both of them, why would you leave your vote on Zanfada? At the time of your voting, you had the option to make it 2 votes for Zanfada, or 4 votes for Skrammen. If your goal was to get scum lynched, and you were very suspicious of Skrammen, why place your vote in a way that greatly increases the odds of a no-lynch rather than nearly guaranteeing a lynch on Skrammen?
I would also like a bit more from hyshes on why he voted Zanfada, considering his voting post was the following:
I don't watn to be modkilled, so i'm going to cast a vote following my feeling here.
##vote Zanfada
Do you still think he is scum? Were you around at all after more votes were in? If so, what was your reasoning for leaving your vote on Zanfada, rather than switching it to Toad? Since the failed lynch you seem to be focusing more on Toad, but haven't really made a committal statement yet, do you believe Toad to be scum?
I still have some suspicion yes. At that time he was the most suspicious to me and i needed to vote to be sure not to get modkilled.
I was actually around when the day ended but because the [*time*] thingy of teamliquid did not change until past night for european timezones (we had a timeshift saturday) i missed it by a few minutes. (you can ask our host, i msged him about it)
I'm 50/50 on toad being scum to be fair. I find his reason why he is not scum and skrammen is not conclusive.
On November 02 2011 00:48 Toadesstern wrote: got home from university now and yeah let's get a little analysis what happened last day.
Let's just pretend we don't know a thing. In that scernario everything's possible. I could be green, I could be red, Skrammen could be green and Skrammen could be red. Same with Zanfa and risk but I'm going to talk about Skrammen and me since the two of us are the main subjects in this thread right now.
1) Both red Let's start with the easy one and pretend both Skrammen and I am red. In that case the two of us are stupid and I'm blaming him to be mafia while he is blaming me to be mafia. I know we're not really blameing each other but I did vote for him so I guess that counts, too. That does not sound like a good plan for mafia imo.
2) Both green Next possibilty: We're both green. If that turns out to be true towns horribly fucked. Not because of the fact that both of us are green but since we didn't even get a majority on a green while mafia is probably even helping us or at least spreading their votes and therefore we might have 1 or 2 mafias on Skrammen as well. And still we don't get a majority. If that's true we got a major problem because we're not going to get a lynch anytime soon (= free kill for mafia without having the chance to kill a mafia or at least get GRANTED information). => pretty much everyone could be mafia because they're able to vote whoever they want without having to manipulate votes at least a bit.
3) Skrammen green, I'm red In that case town got a heavy problem as well. Skrammen was closest for having a majority and it's pretty much the same as the second possibility: I'm mafia and I went for a wagon issued by someone else and still town hasn't got a majority. That would mean that out of those 6 votes probably 2 or 3 votes are issued by mafias (my vote at least + maybe my buddies) while 3 townies voted for Skrammen, 3 voted for me, 2 voted for Zanfa and 1 voted for Chocolate. That's not exactly what you want to do as town, no matter what.
4) I'm green, Skrammen is red In that situation mafia is probably not going to vote for skrammen in the first place. They want to safe their buddy as long as it's possible without leaking information of who actually is mafia out of votingbehaviors right before the deadline. Also this would mean we got at most 1 mafia voting for Skrammen (that is if they got balls). I doubt they got the balls to put their mafia buddy on a 6-votes position themselves, just to make those other 2 mafias really hidden. There could always be a hero votechange 1h before the deadline which would have made a lynch. So in that scenario we probably got about 5 townies voting for Skrammen, maybe it's even 6, while mafia is trying to get us on someone else. Therefore they got either 2 votes on me, 1 vote on me + 1 vote on zanfa or 2 votes on zanfa (the third one is Skrammens vote on choc), while 3 townies did not choose to vote for Skrammen.
For me it's kind of clear. I can rule out possibilty 1 (let's face it, noone's that stupid). I think 3 is pretty unlikely. I just think town should be able to get more than 3 votes on a single person without mafia therefore I think there's no mafia votes on Skrammen. If there are we're really fucked. 2 and 4 could be possible in my opinion. Having 5 or 6 townies able to focus their votes on 1 single person while 3 are not sure what to do sounds reasonable for me (compare with example 3: I don't think we got only 3 people being able to focus their votes while the rest is spreading their votes for whatever reason). Therefore I'd say its 4 > 2 > 3 > 1
I'm still not saying I think Skrammen's 100% sure red, and if he's green than risk is green as well. But I think it's a better explanation than the two of us being green or 'me red + Skrammen green' or both red.
#1 Is pretty unlikely imo.
#2 Is a possibility, I think at least one of you is scum though, I'd be very surprised if this was the case, and we're fucked if it is.
#3 I was very suspicious of you early on, but I ended up voting skarmmen because his later posts seemed really dodgy, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if you were scum.
#4 At the moment I'm trying to figure out which of you two is more likely to be town, because that would almost certainly make the other scum. However this is probably the most likely of the 4 options in my eyes.
@Harbinger. I voted for Zanfada because he, at the time, was the person i was most suspicious of. In retrospect i should have looked at SKrammen's posts more, but at the time he [SKrammen] wasn't the most suspicious to me. Now, although SKrammen is still suspicious (he completely ignored toad's analysis a page back, and only responded to defend himself from Zanfa), i am starting to put a lot more thought in the the claim that Toadesstern is a major suspect. (Zanfa i am now unsure of, and hope to see more posts from him before i say anything more on him).
Mostly because he seems adamant about convincing us that he is town, and constantly restates that point over and over again. Which seems like something mafia would do if they were desperate to avoid a lynch.
Mostly because he seems adamant about convincing us that he is town, and constantly restates that point over and over again. Which seems like something mafia would do if they were desperate to avoid a lynch.
was that about me? If yes than I'll ask you a question: If someone said you're mafia and in reality you're town. So given that situation: You would not try to convince people you're town? Because that's going to get people on the right track and town will avoid a town lynch. I'd say in both cases I'm going to try and convince you I'm town :p
Mostly because he seems adamant about convincing us that he is town, and constantly restates that point over and over again. Which seems like something mafia would do if they were desperate to avoid a lynch.
was that about me? If yes than I'll ask you a question: If someone said you're mafia and in reality you're town. So given that situation: You would not try to convince people you're town? Because that's going to get people on the right track and town will avoid a town lynch. I'd say in both cases I'm going to try and convince you I'm town :p
As town you should have nothing to be afraid of, and shouldn't have to to keep saying "trust me, i'm town". You're actions will show people if you're town more so than you saying it. To me, the latter is far more suspicious. If people think you're scum, then telling them you're not doesn't change their mind. That's just my opinion on it.
The reason I think #1 is really unlikely is the way toad went for a skrammen lynch, if they were mafia buddies that wouldn't have happened. If toad is scum then that makes skrammen town, and vice versa.
Oh and one big thing I forgot, but I'm going to bed now: Remember. I never lurked, I never ignored something. You asked me smoething? A question? An explanation of what I meant? Np, I answered everything! At least I think so and I always told you to ask me if somethings unclear and said I'm going to answer everything you're going to ask me. I'm completly telling you guys what my intentions are and yet some people think my actions sometimes were weird (for example to try and get some reactions out of people) and in the end most people tend to say the reason behind it sounds legit. Does that sound like a mafia or like someone trying to get some information on day 1 with so much nothing before I started doing so?
On the other side we got skrammen who's lurking hardcore, we got risk who's lurking hardcore. Skrammen is answering sometimes while risk is just completly ignoring EVERYTHING he was asked and he's totally ignoring posts like skrammen did when he talked about the possibility of risk being mafia (that is if skrammen is red, too). He went ahead and asked you guys what you think about the situation skrammen vs me, just to ignore the next thing. He IS explaining this one thing: Why he thinks I am mafia and is complety ignoring everything else. Does that sound like a townie? In my opinion it's more of a guy trying to make people go after me and nothing else. Go ahead, search for all my posts with the content risk. Plenty got something with risk in it, asking him to explain what his thoughts are or whatever. I haven't found a single answer yet.
I still think skrammen looks red but this could be a huge problem and we both could end up being green and I got to change what I said earlier: I don't think mafia would have to push for skrammen if skrammen turns out to be green. Town fighting over lynching either Townie1 or Townie2 while not able to decide which one is a pretty nice position to be in for mafia as well. I'd still like to vote for risk over skrammen.
On November 02 2011 06:24 Drem903 wrote: @Harbinger. I voted for Zanfada because he, at the time, was the person i was most suspicious of. In retrospect i should have looked at SKrammen's posts more, but at the time he [SKrammen] wasn't the most suspicious to me. Now, although SKrammen is still suspicious (he completely ignored toad's analysis a page back, and only responded to defend himself from Zanfa), i am starting to put a lot more thought in the the claim that Toadesstern is a major suspect. (Zanfa i am now unsure of, and hope to see more posts from him before i say anything more on him).
Mostly because he seems adamant about convincing us that he is town, and constantly restates that point over and over again. Which seems like something mafia would do if they were desperate to avoid a lynch.
I understand he may very well have been the person you were most suspicious of, but in the very post you used to place that vote you said you were very suspicious of Skrammen. My question was if you thought both were likely to be scum at the time, why would you vote in a manner that makes it less likely that either of them would get lynched? It isn't like you made an effort in your post to get people to switch from Skrammen to Zanfada to get him lynched instead, you simply said they were both very suspicious and placed your vote.
Let's spell it out a bit: Suppose you think A and B are scummy. You think A is 60% to be scum, B is 80% to be scum. If you vote A, he will almost surely be lynched. If you vote B, there is a small chance A will be lynched, no chance B will be lynched, a large chance nobody will be lynched. How does the second choice ever make sense, unless you think A is likely to be town?
Okey. Gentlemen, I know what we're dealing with and it's a creature of pure evil. However my #1 got noobed in his face by rampaging xeno basterds so I were out of suspects. Unless...
...Gentlemen, who do we know that obviously hate mafia and ponies sunshine and top of it won't give us handsome lads a sidebar. That's right. Hotbid.
Hotbid must have gotten wind of tlmafia recruiting, knowing he can't exert his evil powers without risking the attention of the others he dared not make an appearence himself. Instead he used his wicked influence and stunning looks to corrupt three promising young initiates. Hotbids scheme must be stopped and his mislead rookies caught. No matter the cost.
...the future of TL Mafia depends on it.
I don't like those kind of posts. Yeah it's meant to be funny (I guess) but we want to get something done. That kind of posts are not helpfull at all because it's makeing it easy for mafia to hide within spam. Not a big deal, but that happens a lot in your posts. + Show Spoiler +
On October 30 2011 20:12 Toadesstern wrote: oh and just a hint since this is a beginners game: If you are a dt or medic don't just hide or something. First of all, that really gives you away for mafia and secondly we might end up killing our very own dt or medic because we went for a lurker who turned out to be a blue playing "let's not get any attention or I'm going to get killed by mafia". Unless your coach told you otherwise. In that case just tell him he sucks. Your awesome special powers are not going to safe the day if noones talking at all.
To sum it up: post bitches
You seem awefully keen to make our dt and medic reveal themselves. Are you in bed with Hotbid?
Okay it's a question but at that point in time I could not believe someone could misinterprete my statement the way you did. Once I read that I basicly sat there thinking "wtf, I'm not telling blues to reveal themselves, are you kidding me?". Could be intentional to get me talking but I thought it's bullshit and it's again half a spam. + Show Spoiler +
On October 30 2011 20:12 Toadesstern wrote: oh and just a hint since this is a beginners game: If you are a dt or medic don't just hide or something. First of all, that really gives you away for mafia and secondly we might end up killing our very own dt or medic because we went for a lurker who turned out to be a blue playing "let's not get any attention or I'm going to get killed by mafia". Unless your coach told you otherwise. In that case just tell him he sucks. Your awesome special powers are not going to safe the day if noones talking at all.
To sum it up: post bitches
You seem awefully keen to make our dt and medic reveal themselves. Are you in bed with Hotbid?
nah, I'm kinda paranoid since last game where out of 12 people about 7 got modkilled because they didn't post enough
I see, but that is unrelated hence your paranoia defense isn't very convincing.. You were just hinting dts and medics to reveal themselves. That is scummy.
Since you made two "joke-posts" I thougt I'm going to answer as a joke as well because I still could not believe you really interpreted my post the way you did and thought you're kidding me. So you doing jokes is fine but I'm doing joke is not? Guess that was a misunderstanding, but still, it adds up. + Show Spoiler +
On October 31 2011 01:22 IMABUNNEH wrote: I'm not entirely sure what "posting for the sake of posting" is defined at, but its not like there was anything MUCH to poke at prior to my posts.
Either toads or risk.nuke definately look a bit dodgy. Both of the posts struck me as quite aggressive in turning it into finger pointing. I don't think getting all up in peoples' grills immediately is what we want. It's just going to get innocent people on the defensive from the start.
Drem has so far poked at someone randomly as a "joke" and then at myself for not getting immediately aggressive. Who's next, risk.nuke for BEING aggressive? :p I don't think finger pointing every 6 posts at a different person is going to help us.
I doubt someone with almost no activity at this point is likely to be scum though. So even though Skrammen hasn't said anything,I'd rule him out for the time being and look at the "half-active" posters. risk.nuke and hacklebeast are both pretty aggressive in getting people to turn on someone so early.
Getting in peoples faces is precisly what we want. How else do you expect to catch scum?
On October 31 2011 01:24 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: I don't see how toad telling people to be active even if they are blues is suspicious, it isn't like he said "dt's and medics should role-claim in the thread" or anything. He, like most of us, is simply trying to encourage activity from everyone. It also helps make it clear that you must contribute to scum-hunting as a blue if you don't want to be mistaken for scum yourself.
And just to call someone out a bit, I believe Skrammen has actually said the least of anyone so far, with a total contribution of:
Good morning gentlemen!
Even if that was what you thought, why were you so quick to tell everyone what you thought toad ment. He wasn't about to get lynched.. If that's what he thought when he wrote it he wouldn't had have any problems telling us that himself, if he's scum he might had given a scumslip.
FOS
That's what I said earlier. Yeah you want people to get talking. Fosing around like a mad man however sounds like a mafia trying to make a case out of nothing to get people on someone instead of them + Show Spoiler +
On November 01 2011 04:13 risk.nuke wrote: Apologies, I have been hardlurking all day, not by intent I didn't find time to read and analyse untill now.
I don't know, I'm criticising you for not showing up all along. I expected more of an answer. A simple "hey sorry, had to work / had to look after my kids / had to learn for university" would have worked for me. I asked you multiple times to get a bit specific and tell us why you're lurking, you never answered. I know it private but unless it's something strange or emotional I think telling us is np. + Show Spoiler +
On November 01 2011 04:30 risk.nuke wrote: Everyone respond to everything somebody throws against you. Even small stuff. I know it can be done to get by for a while ignoring minor suspicions because "oh look, they dropped me" or "it doesn't seem important". However for everything you do respond to it gives town more information. There are a few more hours left so if you can ditch in a few last efforts.
On November 01 2011 02:03 Toadesstern wrote: I still don't like what risk is doing here: nothing. If he's not going to make a vote and is going to get modkilled that's fine with me (not really but I can't do a thing about it), however if he showes up sometimes soon and does NOT get modkilled I want a pretty damn good explanation for what he's doing. Scrammen seems to be a bit strange while I did not think about Drem until now, will take another read.
Toad, your play is inconsistant and all over the place. I can't tell if you're scum or just new. It's as if you're going for a town powerposition but you don't really know how to achieve it. I really don't like you're jumping on skrammen rather then defending yourself. ##Vote Toadesstern
"Everyone respond to everything somebody throws against you. Even small stuff." Thats what you said, telling me (I guess?) I'm not open enough although I answered everything I was asked while you kept lurking and ignoring requests. I don't really like that. + Show Spoiler +
On November 01 2011 06:29 risk.nuke wrote: The reason I don't like the Skramen lynch is because nobody have tried to help him. Thats a pretty good indicator you're lynching a townie unless scum is throwing him under the bus.
Remember scum likes to get onboard an easy wagon. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Now, I am going to tell you how the Skrammen case started. Due to the massive amounts of texts and quotes in quotes I write in green and Ciryandor is underlined.
On November 01 2011 00:53 Toadesstern wrote: sadly noone made a statement about my vote ;( I actually did not want to vote for chocolate but I'd have loved to see reactions from people who I think are suspicious about my vote :/ first of all
Unvote## Chocolate
What do you people think about hyshes and risk? Risk is the one I'd like to see make a couple posts since he basicly said nothing and I don't know anything about him. While hyshes... I don't know, could be anything :p
that first sentence just made no sense, fixed it and hopefully it's clear what my intention was.
It's the time of day for most people. I'm about to sleep, so I'll miss around 8 hours of discussion, but I feel that Skrammen has been able to coast by the most, and next to that would be Drem903.
Putting pressure on him and explaining my vote to follow:
## Vote Skrammen
Skrammen's first game post is a greeting, nothing wrong there, but it's fluff to make sure he doesn't get modkilled.
On October 31 2011 05:40 Skrammen wrote:
On October 30 2011 14:42 Zanfada wrote: Day 1 it is very important not to let the mafia lurk and hide in the background. So we have to preasure them and force everyone to interact. If you look at the last mini mafia town lost because of inactivity. So we can't have anyone be inactive.
I guess to get things start hacklebeast hasn't posted anything yet. so until he speaks up or a better target comes along
##Vote hacklebeast
4 hours into the game and you go on and try to stir some discussion up? He wasnt the only one who had said nothing up to that point, why did you choose him? It seems a little bit... Dodgy to use a vote to pressure someone into talking more so soon I think.
And just a head's up: Since we have people from both sides of the pond in this game there is bound to be somewhat of a delay in answers and people might be working or sleeping when some discussions takes place. We should be somewhat tolerant of this, but obviously 24 hours of no posting is not good.
Now here he looks at Zanfada's early pressure and thinks it's scummy to randomly highlight someone, when it's actually good town play to be non-discriminating; then proceeds to state the obvious that certain conversation delays are going to happen simply because of timezones.
On October 31 2011 23:10 Skrammen wrote:
On October 31 2011 07:20 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: In the interest of getting some other possible discussions going...
Skrammen has now doubled his post count, using his first to say good morning and his second accuses someone for trying to stir up discussion with a vote "so soon", as well as a preemptive excuse for not being active:
And just a head's up: Since we have people from both sides of the pond in this game there is bound to be somewhat of a delay in answers and people might be working or sleeping when some discussions takes place. We should be somewhat tolerant of this, but obviously 24 hours of no posting is not good.
The only people that benefit from a delayed discussion is obviously the mafia, they'd rather it never happen. Also, while his statement is true, I think it was fairly obvious to most people, and scum always like to have an excuse to fall back on.
So FOS on Skrammen for now.
Ah. Well, you see I was only trying to clarify some things so they are clear. I did not however, encourage it.
The only people that benefit from a delayed discussion is obviously the mafia, they'd rather it never happen. Also, while his statement is true, I think it was fairly obvious to most people, and scum always like to have an excuse to fall back on.
I think we both might be talking without saying anything now; both of these things are quite obvious, yet we both had to say it. What I said was just that; A head's up just in case people did not know. Honestly I think this is pretty bad grounds for accusations. I still maintain that a vote 4 hours into the game is pretty suspicious, but not enough to be convinced he is red.
I can take my vote back at any time. The vote was just there to promote talking which it did just that.
What was alot more interesting was Toad's post and how it was received. I personally think blues should post and help the town or they stand out to mafia and playing safe and become much better targets. Also mafia rarely mention blues for the simple fact that it makes them look more like mafia hunting for blues with any mention of blues. The same goes for blues themselves, they want to hide with town and do their job. I think Toad was just trying to prevent what happened last game to happen this game. However his post doesn't say anything more then "post guys" which doesn't further along any conversation it just increase his post count which in my opinion is all mafia try to do for the first day. On October 30 2011 22:54 hacklebeast wrote: Show nested quote +
Unnecessarily trying to start a town panic? Baseless accusing people that, under your own admission, have no evidence against? Sounds like very mafia things to do. I'm not going to go so far as to cast my vote yet, but I'm watching you.
Besides, I could never have committed the crime. Gmarshal I could take or leave, but killing ponies? I don't have it in me to take out something this lovable.
I wasn't starting a town panic, though it seems to have caused you to panic a little. Your response to my vote seems to be an emotional plea involving ponies and a FOS but little more then that. It seems as if you are trying to not draw any sort of attention to yourself even after a vote has already been placed on you. Normally I would take this as a scum tell but it seems more like a newbie tell then a mafia at this point.
Then there is Ciryandor, he defended me and my baseless attack on someone. The only time I usually am defended is when scum are trying to buddy up with me. Or since he has played a few games he is just trying to let newbies know what I was doing. Still FOS for now.
This is his answer to why he did it, and to be honest, it worked, he got stuff going which is good. I will be keeping an eye out, but at this point his reasoning seems good enough for me. As you said earlier, delaying discussion is indicative of scummy behaviour, or perhaps it might not be? An elaborate ruse?
Here in this post he's very much guilty of pointing out something that works towards the scum-team's advantage, and that is to have fluff conversations regarding people who merit suspicion, but not applying enough pressure for him to actually do a vote.
Three posts, two on a very weak FoS, just enough to evade proper scrutiny. I think this is worth my vote.
Alot of text but contentwise it's an exaggeration to call this case weak.
On November 01 2011 02:29 Toadesstern wrote: Ok I'm going with skrammen as well, we need to get a lynch and although I would have liked to get someone else I think going after him is fine, too. ##vote Skrammen
Just to get this clear since at least I did not know last game: It's not a simple majority vote, we need 7 people to vote on someone or it's a no-lynch. Having 4 votes on someone and 8 votes spread out is not going to get the guy with 4 votes lynched.
Bandwagon is forming up, and still there is nothing solid on Skrammen, and what the hell is the part where he admits he'd rather want to go for someone else but will settle for this guy whom we have nothing on. Why would a townie want to lynch a random person when the chances of catching a scum is 3/12. Lynching a town gives the dt less rounds to find scum.
On November 01 2011 04:01 xsksc wrote: ##vote Skrammen
I'm still suspicious of zanfada, I want to see him reply soon. I could well change my vote to him, depends on his next post.
Again, no arguments to why we should lynch this guy ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This case is a clear bandwagon based on little/nothing. Alot of people here are new which makes an unquestioned bandwagon all the more dangerous. Don't jump on something you don't feel strongly about yourself, otherwise we will be no match for the scum.
But most interestingly, I feel the need to emphasize this again. Nobody is taking his side.
Imo that's still a big lie or a big mistake. Already told you why I think so. (To sum it up: You ARE defending skrammen, everyone not voting for skrammen IS defending him because they're blocking the lynch, if you're attacking a mafia there will be people defending him, at least one buddy and yet you tell me that this looks strange?) + Show Spoiler +
On November 01 2011 07:49 risk.nuke wrote: Toad. My point is you say you think he is scum 33-45 percent while at the same time avoiding providing any arguments as to why. Even in your response you fail to do so but instead tried to defuse it into a scenario where we are just OMGUS-ing eachother. You're making it sound as if I were your suspect all along but it's actually only since I voted for you.
If he had thought I were scum he would had written what he had on me in the thread because thats what townies do. This is a scumslip. Look at this, I am now his main suspect for busting a bandwagon against someone he claimed to be 33-45% sure of.
Note this: Hypotheticly If I were scum and Skrammen is town, would I halt the lynch? Ofcourse not. So logicly I could only be scum if Skrammen is scum, and thats disregarding the possibilty that I am town and wrong about him beeing town. And yet I am his top suspect. That does not add upp.
it's not a scumslip. If I tell you the very moment I think you look strange (that was at the very beginng, based on stuff I just don't like, but those things could still be town) you would know I'm looking after your posts and therefore would take care of what you're saying. Also I answered your first paragraph and you completly ingored it ( I think). + Show Spoiler +
On November 01 2011 09:32 risk.nuke wrote: But jesus christ I'm even off tracking myself, Why are you still blind and talking about Skrammen. Toadesstern have accidently done several scumslips, wake up!
That's just weird. You're claiming I'm looking weird because I don't give explanation of what I'm doing? You're kidding me right? As mentioned, I DO explain whatever you want me to explain once you ask me, yet you come by posting a bunch of nothing, blaming me to have made couple scumslips without saying what those are, not even giving a single example. Yeah, totally what a townie would do "Let's lynch him! He's mafia because I know so!"
I guess i don't honestly have a good reason as to why i did not vote for SKrammen in the end. The thing was i was only suspicious of those 2, and the one i was suspicious of to the point of voting was Zanfada. Although i was reary of SKrammen, i did not see him as suspicious to the point of lynching.
Although it is noteworthy to say that Toad does have a point about Risk not really posting that much. He's actively defending SK, although he immediately tries to spurn attention back on SK when he is called into question, and a few of his posts are just updates on him lurking. He has also tried to get people to look at Toad.
So if Toad is mafia, then risk probably isn't. If risk is mafia, then toad isn't, and SKrammen is also mafia because risk wouldn't defend him if he wasn't.
So to defend myself from your lines of nonsense, the wall of text where it's hard to even know who said what.
You don't like the way I post? Starting the game of with some humor, so people wont get bored and hence less active. How is that anti-town play.
The second one is just a small pressure post aswell as the followup. Nothing more. The fact that you question everything I do while other people are doing the same thing just sugest you have targeted me instead of targeting scummy behavior and that is not town play. Narrowing one person down and claiming everything he does is scummy by angle it or WIFOM is not town play, especially since you're only targeting me because I am the one trying to expose you.
Then you're questioning my activity, trying to make a case of as if it mattered why I couldn't be at a computer long enough to analyze and write. What exacly did I have thrown against me? I am looking through the thread right now and the only thing I find is things you have said which is just omgus. You're just playing on the fact that there are so many people who doesn't go back and read but just swallows what you angle to be true.
Townie priority list.
1. Establish your innocence. 2. Support the right townies. 3. Vote properly. 4. Shut down any attempts to lynch other obvious townies. 5. Shut down attempts to spread doubt or chaos in the thread.
There is no reason for a townie ever to angle anything, that is not their job because it doesn't help them to find scum, only scum ever tries to angle things.
Ofcourse if I call out that nobody is supporting the one beeing lynched then I become his suporter, I waited as long as I dared to do it because I wanted to see if anyone else would and still have time to avert the lynch.
In the second last of my quotes it's really interesting to see which part Toad choose to answer. Ignoring what was clearly the point of that post. I'll come back to this in a second.
I am telling you to explain, the only evidence you have presented on Skrammen is he is scum because I am defending him. You're responses are pretty much You are scum, I have explained YOU ARE SCUM!! What I want is something concrete, like this.
Toad is scum because he is inconsistent to what he says, changes his mind, angle things and when asked for reasoning why he thinks in a certain way he is having a hard time answering something that should be as simple as saying the truth.
Oh forgot the thing I would come back too, soo to avoid giving toad a chanse to confuse you with it. The point of that post was I wanted to know Toads train of thoughts how I became more suspicious then Skrammen because that is illogical and a lie.
1. Establish your innocence. 2. Support the right townies. 3. Vote properly. 4. Shut down any attempts to lynch other obvious townies. 5. Shut down attempts to spread doubt or chaos in the thread.
I find it a bit odd that your list doesn't include finding scum. My list would be: 1: Figure out who is scum 2: Once you have determined someone is scum (or at least likely to be scum), make a case against them and convince other people that the person is, in fact, scum.
The rest should take care of itself.
I would also like to take a moment to share two potentially relevant quotes from Ver's guide: + Show Spoiler +
"The worst way to play day 1 is with apathy and disinterest and lynch the most outspoken/controversial player, who is never going to be mafia."
"The most important thing to do with the day 1 lynch is look at the votes and trends. Was there a big swing for one candidate over another? How late was it in the cycle? How many people received 1-2 votes? In this case, the most interesting vote count list is the one posted with 4 hours to go. At this point, love1another has 6 votes, Bill Murray has 5, and Roffles has 4. There are 9 players with 1-2 votes and 4 players have not voted yet. This list tells you that there probably isn't a mafia in the top 2 vote getters. The votes are close enough that the mafia doesn't really have to risk itself too much to do a voteswing, but the mafia also don't want to do a voteswing at the last minute because last minute voteswingers generally get put under heavy pressure after an innocent lynch. The mafia would have been pushing a different candidate harder over the course of the day if there was a mafia at risk. Instead, expect to see the mafia pretty spread out among the votegetters and don't expect many of them to switch at the end. And sure enough, only Misder is voting for any of the top 3 vote getters. Infundibulum hasn't voted yet and the other 4 mafia members are in lists of 1-2 votes. Sure enough, looking at the final votes, only 1 mafia changed their vote and Infundibulum came in and voted. There isn't a single mafia on the love1another lynch list. At this point, Bill Murray should be viewed as almost certainly not mafia."
Standard rules doesn't neccersarily apply here since this is a beginners game and mafia knows it and could try to take advantage of it. (How much coaching a player gets in this game is going to be based on the players interest to get coached so you can trust that mafia will be asking for plenty of coaching) Therefor mafia could vey well be trying to assert themselves as central town players abusing the fact that the majority is inexperienced. Remember the coaches are for everyone and don't hesitate to ask them anything, worst case scenario they will just tell you they are not allowed to answer that.
While we should keep what risk said in mind, imo we should not hesitate to vote someone just for making a noob mistake that could very well be a scum mistake, such as asking, " detective what did you find" or something along those lines.
risk.nuke had managed to provide refuge for the few surviving ponies in newbie-ville. They were safely hidden away, sheltered from the blood thirsty mafia. Unfortunately for him, a certain host may have tipped off the location of pony headquarters. He wasn't heard from again.
risk.nuke the townie has perished!
In other news, a foul smell spread across the town of newbie-ville. Nobody had bothered to bury Erandorr's rotten corpse.
What would scum gain from killing risk? Toad was the only person who ever really targeted Risk, but would he really (if Toad was mafia) target the person that only he had reason to target? That would make it really obvious that he was, in fact, scum.
Something to consider is that Mafia may have killed Risk to try and reinforce the current FOS on Toad.
Huh, that's not one of the top 3 I would have expected to be dead this morning.
Well then, let's see what this means.
Risk.nuke was the main proponent of the lynch toad campaign. Other than that he has called one of Ciry's posts suspicious, and he called a FOS on me awhile back.
So, who benefits from risk's death? 1) Toad, it removes the most ardent supporter of his lynching. 2) Skrammen, risk defended Skrammen, him flipping town upon death gives more weight to risk's defense of Skrammen. It also discredits Toad, as Toad had risk highest on his scum list. Him being wrong about that lowers the worth of his word when he accuses others of being scum. 3) Bunneh, also defended Skrammen, and is therefore indirectly helped by risk's death, although only slightly. 4) Ciry, but only if Ciry was worried about risk becoming increasingly suspect of him. 5) Myself, but, again, only if I still thought risk was suspicious of me. 6) Lurkers, if neither Skrammen nor Toad is scum, killing somebody who has spent almost all his time talking about these two makes for an amazing kill. It practically guarantees we will continue to focus on them, giving mafia another day where they don't get lynched.
I think it is clear that 1, 2, or 6 are the best candidates. 3, 4, and 5 mostly serve as potentially added bonuses, but certainly seem unlikely as main reasons. Also keep in mind, it is likely that the decision was made by scum before risk's long post before the bottom of page 17, and possibly before toad's as well. Very few people were around after those posts and prior to the night ending, and presumably scum would not leave the decision on who to shoot to a single member of their team.
So here's my opinion on the matter, Toad tends to talk too much and to talk too freely for me to think he is scum. Skrammen tends to have rather empty posts, he has done no real analysis so far, and has engaged in a decent amount of OMGUS, as collected in the spoiler. + Show Spoiler +
Note: These are all directed at different people
Not once did you FoS on me, yet you preffered to vote me instead of zanfa. You also FoS'd Ciry but claim you didnt. You seem to be a bit everywhere, throwing suspicions left and right. To me, it appears like you are trying to be a bit of an instigator while saying very little of substance. You've posted nearly as little as I have done, and you say you vote me because of lack of activity?
##Vote Chocolate
And now you have decided to vote me. Did you already make up your mind before I did my post? As far as I can tell, the only thing you seem to base your suspicion on is the fact that I made a point about timezones. I think you are over-analyzing things way too hard, stop looking for something who is not there.
Just stating the obvious. Why say I might red if I am scum? Well, if I was, would I tell you? Are you desperatly trying to find a reason to get me lynched, again?
What about you. So far, the only thing you have done is come in, instigate somthing on someone else, defend yourself when you got under pressure only to disappear again. And here you are again.
However, I, unfortunately, lack the conviction of our departed risk.nuke. I cannot say with 100% certainty that Skrammen is scum nor that Toad is Town. But here's what I think can help solve the problem, Toad and Skrammen, if you value your lives, please make a post of the following: 1) At least 2, preferably 3 people you think are scum 2) Explanations and some analysis of why you think they are scum 3) At least 2, preferably more, people you think are town, excluding yourself 4) Explanations of why you think they are town 5) What you think the goal of the risk.nuke shooting was
If we have this information from both of them, I think we will have a much clearer picture of things.
This post is getting long, but I feel the need to restate something from an earlier post of mine, thus far hacklebeast has gotten away with contributing a total of jack shit and that needs to change in a hurry.
As an aside, from the OP description of the role-blocker role:
Your target will be informed that they have been role-blocked (even if they didn't have a night action). You do not have to use your action every night.
So, if somebody was role-blocked, it would be nice to know, as the setup does not explicitly state whether or not they have one. Additionally, who, if anyone, was role-blocked would provide further information.
What. Really, killing risk?! I expected someone else; if I was scum I'd have tagged him for a lynch later for his activity. Frankly, I expected to be dead again, but it seems that scum wants targeting to be done on the outspoken people so they have easy frame material.
On November 02 2011 14:58 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: Huh, that's not one of the top 3 I would have expected to be dead this morning.
Well then, let's see what this means.
Risk.nuke was the main proponent of the lynch toad campaign. Other than that he has called one of Ciry's posts suspicious, and he called a FOS on me awhile back.
So, who benefits from risk's death? 1) Toad, it removes the most ardent supporter of his lynching. 2) Skrammen, risk defended Skrammen, him flipping town upon death gives more weight to risk's defense of Skrammen. It also discredits Toad, as Toad had risk highest on his scum list. Him being wrong about that lowers the worth of his word when he accuses others of being scum. 3) Bunneh, also defended Skrammen, and is therefore indirectly helped by risk's death, although only slightly. 4) Ciry, but only if Ciry was worried about risk becoming increasingly suspect of him. 5) Myself, but, again, only if I still thought risk was suspicious of me. 6) Lurkers, if neither Skrammen nor Toad is scum, killing somebody who has spent almost all his time talking about these two makes for an amazing kill. It practically guarantees we will continue to focus on them, giving mafia another day where they don't get lynched.
I think it is clear that 1, 2, or 6 are the best candidates. 3, 4, and 5 mostly serve as potentially added bonuses, but certainly seem unlikely as main reasons. Also keep in mind, it is likely that the decision was made by scum before risk's long post before the bottom of page 17, and possibly before toad's as well. Very few people were around after those posts and prior to the night ending, and presumably scum would not leave the decision on who to shoot to a single member of their team.
So here's my opinion on the matter, Toad tends to talk too much and to talk too freely for me to think he is scum. Skrammen tends to have rather empty posts, he has done no real analysis so far, and has engaged in a decent amount of OMGUS, as collected in the spoiler. + Show Spoiler +
Note: These are all directed at different people
Not once did you FoS on me, yet you preffered to vote me instead of zanfa. You also FoS'd Ciry but claim you didnt. You seem to be a bit everywhere, throwing suspicions left and right. To me, it appears like you are trying to be a bit of an instigator while saying very little of substance. You've posted nearly as little as I have done, and you say you vote me because of lack of activity?
##Vote Chocolate
And now you have decided to vote me. Did you already make up your mind before I did my post? As far as I can tell, the only thing you seem to base your suspicion on is the fact that I made a point about timezones. I think you are over-analyzing things way too hard, stop looking for something who is not there.
Just stating the obvious. Why say I might red if I am scum? Well, if I was, would I tell you? Are you desperatly trying to find a reason to get me lynched, again?
What about you. So far, the only thing you have done is come in, instigate somthing on someone else, defend yourself when you got under pressure only to disappear again. And here you are again.
However, I, unfortunately, lack the conviction of our departed risk.nuke. I cannot say with 100% certainty that Skrammen is scum nor that Toad is Town. But here's what I think can help solve the problem, Toad and Skrammen, if you value your lives, please make a post of the following: 1) At least 2, preferably 3 people you think are scum 2) Explanations and some analysis of why you think they are scum 3) At least 2, preferably more, people you think are town, excluding yourself 4) Explanations of why you think they are town 5) What you think the goal of the risk.nuke shooting was
If we have this information from both of them, I think we will have a much clearer picture of things.
This post is getting long, but I feel the need to restate something from an earlier post of mine, thus far hacklebeast has gotten away with contributing a total of jack shit and that needs to change in a hurry.
HoD, who did you expect to be dead and why? I personally expected me or Toad as the likeliest KP targets; me for having the gall to actually lay out the Skrammen lynch (and for scum to cover their vote tracks), and Toad because he would have looked like a clear town had risk not died, given his vigorous defense.
w t f. I just don't understand what risk did the last couple of days... again, he's telling me I'm only focussing on one guy (him) while completly ignoring everything else. The reason I did that (also, I did not do that, I still talked about other possibilites, see my big post abaut skrammen/me/zanfa/risk being mafia or not? Also I was defending myself and did not ignore someone blaming me just to go on and say "hey let's lynch risk") was because HE did it in the first place with me. That in combination with all that fuss he wrote made me think he's 100% sure scum.
To answer Harbs posts I'm really not sure right now... I think mafia did us a great favor with lynching risk because that way we don't end up argueing who is mafia without getting someone killed. Right now we at least now he was green although I did not like what he did. I'm not even sure about skrammen anymore. If risk was town, risk REALLY thought skrammen is town. However risk ruined day1 with his vote on me. He has to know that a nolynch is the worst possible thing for town (except killing blues I guess) since it's leaving town completly in the dark and that is the very thing we want to change/avoid, yet he blocked the lynch, which just did not make sense at all.
My list of mafias would have been: 1) Risk (I explained that enough I guess) 2) Probably drem + Show Spoiler +
On November 02 2011 11:50 Drem903 wrote: What would scum gain from killing risk? Toad was the only person who ever really targeted Risk, but would he really (if Toad was mafia) target the person that only he had reason to target? That would make it really obvious that he was, in fact, scum.
Something to consider is that Mafia may have killed Risk to try and reinforce the current FOS on Toad.
I'm not sure if mafia would do such a thing. They HAVE to be aware of the fact that it does look like that. So my guess is they killed risk to make it look the way you said, obviously that's because I know I'm not mafia :p + he was one of the guys blocking a lynch on day1 who did not vote for men (he voted for zanfa, blocking a lynch, saying later on that was stupid and he did not do it for a reason).
3) Either someone like hyshes/bunneh or skrammen
However, we know risk turned out to be green which changes a lot. You guys have to either lynch skrammen or me to get some information because you can' afford that one of us might be a mafia playing some tricks on you in this thread twisting the conversation the way he wants and makeing you get a nolynch again because everyone's uncertain. So no matter what, you need to get a lynch today. I'm just afraid both possible lynches could be a townie. Frankly what Skrammen answered did not seem to be mafia, except for the fact that it's very little. What he said was rightm although it was obvious but he did not try to make you think something weird with wrong logic. Maybe it really is skrammen, drem + either hyshes or bunneh or hackle but I don't think it's that easy (again, from my point of view!). If Skrammen turns out to be green we got to rethink about the wagon on day1. Ciry has been doing great the very first day and was definitly on my top5 (something like that) town list and he still is. However if skrammen really IS green that's not exactly a good sign for ciry and everyone else who voted for skrammen. If I flip green a couple of guys attacking me probably are red and we already know that that rule is flawed, since risk turned out to be green. Right now I'd say drem + one of the three above is mafia or skrammen + someone we don't have in mind right now. If I had to make a list right now with 3 names it would be drem, hackle, skrammen. Skrammen is kind of a protection move for me :p I think he's a coinflip at most for us. I said earlier he's a 30-40% scum for me (something along those lines) and what he said after that lynch attempt did not make it go higher. If I had to make a list of 3 townies I'd go for xsksc, Ciryandor, Zanfada I'm really having trouble here. xsksc because he admitted that he thinks I'm green somewhere the last couple of days. I think a mafia would have pushed for me. Same for ciry and zanfa, they both would have had an easy time screwing my game telling people "hey guys, we totally know Toad from the last game and this is nothing like the way he played last game. Last game he was a townie/blue => he probably is red". Those 3 are followed by a bunch of people who I think are town because they made some posts that made them look green (like your most recent harb) but I'm not entirely sure as at this point of the game with so much conspiracy going on it would be easy for mafia to look green.
As a finishing line: We do need a lynch today, we can not let town be in the dark for another cycle without getting information who actually is fooling around with us, so make a lynch happen guys!
This kill on risk is interesting, not what I expected at all.
It makes toad look guilty as hell, as risk was leading the campaign against toad. HOWEVER mafia might use this to their advantage and kill risk to frame toad, but then again... if toad is mafia and they know that we'll think that it might be a frame, they might shoot him anyway to get risk off toads back. Could be mind games, could be a frame, I don't know, I'll wait and see how toad is posting today before I form my opinions.
Harbringer makes a good point about lurkers benefiting from this kill. I want to hear from hackle especially, 2 posts since the game started is some pretty hardcore lurking. What do you think about risk being shot? Do you still stand by your toad vote on day 1?
oh and I'm already placing my vote. I don't want you guys to vote 8 hours before the deadline. Keep in mind that a couple of guys here are from europe. Deadline is 03:00 am for me and I have to wake up at 6:50 in the morning. So placing votes late on the second day of this cycle might help spreading votes and therefore we might end up having another no lynch. I don't want that to happen
##Vote Drem903
Both hyshes and drem voted for zanfa which is just plain bullshit. I could have seen how people wanted to vote for me after I got a couple of votes but I can't see how you can leave your vote on zanfa knowing that it's helping mafia because we're getting a no-lynch. Hyshes however looks town from time to time while drem just got this stupid vote without explaining why he stayed with zanfa (same goes for hyshes) and nothing really that looks like town. If drem shows up and actually starts to talk I'm willing to reconsider my thoughts here. If you guys are going to lynch someone else who's on my top5 or 6 of my mafia list and are able to get a couple of votes on him I'm reconsidering it as well.
On November 02 2011 18:30 Toadesstern wrote: oh and I'm already placing my vote. I don't want you guys to vote 8 hours before the deadline. Keep in mind that a couple of guys here are from europe. Deadline is 03:00 am for me and I have to wake up at 6:50 in the morning. So placing votes late on the second day of this cycle might help spreading votes and therefore we might end up having another no lynch. I don't want that to happen
I thought we had 48 hours? I'm also from europe and start the morning around the same time so I have to vote in advance too
Erm i did explain why i voted for zanfa.. i needed a vote and wanted to be sure to not get modkilled.. and i missed the deadline because TL screwed up their [*time*] thing for europe...
This mafia kill is actually very strange to me, i had a few scenarios in mind of who would be mafia if someone died.. but i never thought risk would be a target.
On November 02 2011 19:05 hyshes wrote: Erm i did explain why i voted for zanfa.. i needed a vote and wanted to be sure to not get modkilled.. and i missed the deadline because TL screwed up their [*time*] thing for europe...
This mafia kill is actually very strange to me, i had a few scenarios in mind of who would be mafia if someone died.. but i never thought risk would be a target.
oh ok, I thought you said you needed a vote to not get modkilled for the moment (way before deadline) and wanted to change it later on.
On November 02 2011 19:05 hyshes wrote: Erm i did explain why i voted for zanfa.. i needed a vote and wanted to be sure to not get modkilled.. and i missed the deadline because TL screwed up their [*time*] thing for europe...
This mafia kill is actually very strange to me, i had a few scenarios in mind of who would be mafia if someone died.. but i never thought risk would be a target.
oh ok, I thought you said you needed a vote to not get modkilled for the moment (way before deadline) and wanted to change it later on.
that is what i said... i needed a vote to not get modkilled.. so i voted for the most suspicous person back then... I probably would have chosen for a lynch if i didn't miss the deadline... (but that is void now)
On November 02 2011 19:05 hyshes wrote: Erm i did explain why i voted for zanfa.. i needed a vote and wanted to be sure to not get modkilled.. and i missed the deadline because TL screwed up their [*time*] thing for europe...
This mafia kill is actually very strange to me, i had a few scenarios in mind of who would be mafia if someone died.. but i never thought risk would be a target.
oh ok, I thought you said you needed a vote to not get modkilled for the moment (way before deadline) and wanted to change it later on.
that is what i said... i needed a vote to not get modkilled.. so i voted for the most suspicous person back then... I probably would have chosen for a lynch if i didn't miss the deadline... (but that is void now)
So now, what say you? Do you have any idea who you think thought of targeting risk?
On November 02 2011 19:05 hyshes wrote: Erm i did explain why i voted for zanfa.. i needed a vote and wanted to be sure to not get modkilled.. and i missed the deadline because TL screwed up their [*time*] thing for europe...
This mafia kill is actually very strange to me, i had a few scenarios in mind of who would be mafia if someone died.. but i never thought risk would be a target.
oh ok, I thought you said you needed a vote to not get modkilled for the moment (way before deadline) and wanted to change it later on.
that is what i said... i needed a vote to not get modkilled.. so i voted for the most suspicous person back then... I probably would have chosen for a lynch if i didn't miss the deadline... (but that is void now)
So now, what say you? Do you have any idea who you think thought of targeting risk?
Actually, i've no idea whatsoever.. This kill makes no sense to me.
I've just spent half my lunch hour catching up on this and reading through... I hope you're happy
That kill was.... unexpected. Reading back through his posts, Toad is the only person to REALLY benefit from it. I don't think Toad is that stupid, but do we have any scum around that are stupid enough to think that would work? It's such a BLATANT kill that it could mean almost anything with relation to Toads. I can't see it as unrelated though, so the options in my mind are:
1) Toads is scum. Risk was so vehement about it that killing him protects Toads, and nobody would really think Toads that dumb, so he could get away with it.
2) Someone else was trying to implicate Toads to get people off of them, which would make Skrammen scum most likely. Killing Toads would be too obvious perhaps, so framing Toads much better?
3) Risk only brought a case against ONE other person, which was against Harbinger. Perhaps killing someone not too obvious to keep people off himself.
However every explanation both prior to Risk's death and since then seems to include Toad or Skrammen as being red as an option. If one is red the other is almost certainly green, but at this point it is just far too unlikely that neither of them are red.
Once I'm home from work and not on lunchbreak I'll pull up Harbinger's post history as well, see what gems are hiding there, because of point 3, unless someone beats me to it. It's definately something worth looking into, especially as he was a part of the Skrammen "bandwagon". I know we have 48 hours, but I think initially at least we should put some focus on these guys. If we're so spread out like Day 1 we'll end up with a no-lynch, and I think I definately made a mistake not switching to Skrammen Day 1. Initially I was far more suspicious of Toads, but they're almost 50/50 now, and having the information from one of them would have made today a lot easier for us.
I jus reread the whole thread and i'm going to post a hard statement here.
Ciryandor - Toadesstern - Drem903
These 3 are referring to each other all the time, without direct accusations. This leaves me to think that they don't want eachother lynched.. but wan to have a backup of posts that do kinda disconnect them. There is something really fishy between those 3. I'm willing to go on a vote on one of these three for sure.
I already voted for drem :p So your list of 3 people is supposed to tell us we're mafia or just suspicious?. All 3 mafia is nearly impossible, while suspicious sure is possible. Just ask yourself why should I vote for drem if both of us are mafia? Same goes for ciry. He was the guy he proposed voting for drem in the first place. Why should he do so if both are mafia? If ciry's mafia than drem's town and probably vice versa. Additionally I would not tell people that I think ciry is green because the very moment I would flip red you'd know ciry is probably red too. That's a very nooby mistake for mafia and it's easy as shit for town to look up what a confirmed mafia (because he was lynched and flipped red) said about other people in retroperspective. But yeah I'm all for a drem vote right now since I'm honestly considering skrammen to be town :p
The problem with skrammen and me is, that convincing some or even a majority of town is not going to be enough. You either have to lynch us (or just one of us, if your first lynch got a mafia and you believe that only one of us can be red because both red is stupid) or make sure noone who truely is town votes for one of us. We need 6 people on a vote. If I'm able to convince let's say 2 more people and I still end up having 2 townies who vote for me we're going to have a no lynch almost certainly, because those 2 people kept voting for me. That's 2 people blocking a lynch from town + 3 mafias blocking a lynch from town = 5. We got 11 people alive and we need 6 people for a vote. So to get a lynch we would need EVERYBODY but those 2 guys + 3 mafias on the same guy. I don't think we're able to do so as the situation is way more complex than yesterday and we didn't even mangage to get a majority yesterday. If you guys are not able to get a majority either go for skrammen or me with everything you got (that is votes). Don't care what the results are, you could end up lynching a townie but you can't afford to not lynch someone and be uncertain of who is actually tricking you the whole game.
btw my thoughts about that risken kill is simply outsourcing a problem: If you guys believe that I'm green you also believe that mafia wants to see me dead at some point in the game, obviously. Why waste a KP on me if they can just kill risken and that way maybe town is lynching me for even more reason. Worst case would be town gets it and noone lynches me, therefore only one guy killed with 1 KP. Best case would be 2 guys killed with one KP because Toad lynched me because of that risk kill. Nothing to lose for mafia here, but it's kind of obvious as long as you believe I am truely town.
that's not going to happen because at most it's 2 people being red. As mentioned, there's not point ciry or I (ok I see why you don't care for my vote) should push for drem if both are red.
HoD, who did you expect to be dead and why? I personally expected me or Toad as the likeliest KP targets; me for having the gall to actually lay out the Skrammen lynch (and for scum to cover their vote tracks), and Toad because he would have looked like a clear town had risk not died, given his vigorous defense.
I thought the most likely killings would have been: 1) You: Have generally been very pro-town and have been promoting discussion. Killing you doesn't tell town much. 2) Chocolate: If he isn't scum, I think he is among the most likely to be blue. If scum picked up the same vibe, shooting for a blue is a good way to go. Possibly gives town some info, but if he is blue, definitely worth it for scum. 3) Zanfada or myself: I think Zanfada is town, and he hasn't been afraid to point fingers or stir discussion. Myself for the same as Zanfada. Killing one of us also doesn't seem to give town too much info. However, in retrospect I can kinda see risk as a similar target to myself and zanfada. I thought he was more likely town than scum, but I guess since scum knew he wasn't scum, if they didn't think they could build a case against him soon, he makes for a decent kill that doesn't give a whole lot of info.
Once I'm home from work and not on lunchbreak I'll pull up Harbinger's post history as well, see what gems are hiding there, because of point 3, unless someone beats me to it. It's definately something worth looking into, especially as he was a part of the Skrammen "bandwagon".
Feel free to do so. Of particular interest to you might be my post where I pointed out I was a potential benefactor of risk's death, or my post where I stepped up to defend toad early on, if you think toad is scum, that is. Other than that I have called out Drem for his nonsensical voting, mentioned to Ciry that he left some details out of a summary post, pointed out that risk's townie priority list didn't contain scum-hunting, and called out hackle for lurking. What I think is my single most important post: + Show Spoiler +
Huh, that's not one of the top 3 I would have expected to be dead this morning.
Well then, let's see what this means.
Risk.nuke was the main proponent of the lynch toad campaign. Other than that he has called one of Ciry's posts suspicious, and he called a FOS on me awhile back.
So, who benefits from risk's death? 1) Toad, it removes the most ardent supporter of his lynching. 2) Skrammen, risk defended Skrammen, him flipping town upon death gives more weight to risk's defense of Skrammen. It also discredits Toad, as Toad had risk highest on his scum list. Him being wrong about that lowers the worth of his word when he accuses others of being scum. 3) Bunneh, also defended Skrammen, and is therefore indirectly helped by risk's death, although only slightly. 4) Ciry, but only if Ciry was worried about risk becoming increasingly suspect of him. 5) Myself, but, again, only if I still thought risk was suspicious of me. 6) Lurkers, if neither Skrammen nor Toad is scum, killing somebody who has spent almost all his time talking about these two makes for an amazing kill. It practically guarantees we will continue to focus on them, giving mafia another day where they don't get lynched.
I think it is clear that 1, 2, or 6 are the best candidates. 3, 4, and 5 mostly serve as potentially added bonuses, but certainly seem unlikely as main reasons. Also keep in mind, it is likely that the decision was made by scum before risk's long post before the bottom of page 17, and possibly before toad's as well. Very few people were around after those posts and prior to the night ending, and presumably scum would not leave the decision on who to shoot to a single member of their team.
So here's my opinion on the matter, Toad tends to talk too much and to talk too freely for me to think he is scum. Skrammen tends to have rather empty posts, he has done no real analysis so far, and has engaged in a decent amount of OMGUS, as collected in the spoiler. + Show Spoiler +
However, I, unfortunately, lack the conviction of our departed risk.nuke. I cannot say with 100% certainty that Skrammen is scum nor that Toad is Town. But here's what I think can help solve the problem, Toad and Skrammen, if you value your lives, please make a post of the following: 1) At least 2, preferably 3 people you think are scum 2) Explanations and some analysis of why you think they are scum 3) At least 2, preferably more, people you think are town, excluding yourself 4) Explanations of why you think they are town 5) What you think the goal of the risk.nuke shooting was
If we have this information from both of them, I think we will have a much clearer picture of things.
This post is getting long, but I feel the need to restate something from an earlier post of mine, thus far hacklebeast has gotten away with contributing a total of jack shit and that needs to change in a hurry.
and what I think was probably my scummiest post if you think toad is scum: + Show Spoiler +
I don't see how toad telling people to be active even if they are blues is suspicious, it isn't like he said "dt's and medics should role-claim in the thread" or anything. He, like most of us, is simply trying to encourage activity from everyone. It also helps make it clear that you must contribute to scum-hunting as a blue if you don't want to be mistaken for scum yourself.
And just to call someone out a bit, I believe Skrammen has actually said the least of anyone so far, with a total contribution of:
Good morning gentlemen!]
I hope that helps you find whatever you're looking for.
Sorry for the three posts in a row, I've kinda been responding to things I think I should respond to as I read the thread.
On November 03 2011 00:04 hyshes wrote: I jus reread the whole thread and i'm going to post a hard statement here.
Ciryandor - Toadesstern - Drem903
These 3 are referring to each other all the time, without direct accusations. This leaves me to think that they don't want eachother lynched.. but wan to have a backup of posts that do kinda disconnect them. There is something really fishy between those 3. I'm willing to go on a vote on one of these three for sure.
....What? I'm really going to need a much more thorough analysis of how you think Ciryandor is scum. Additionally, I want to know why in the hell you think either Ciryandor or Toad could be scum if Drem is, considering Ciryandor called out Drem's posts as something to keep an eye on, and now we have Toad being the first vote of the day and placing it on Drem. I really want to hear how this makes the slightest bit of sense to you.
1) His posts are long when a simple reply could answer the question (disregarding his analysis post on risk). As scum he's using longer posts to try and cover all possible points that could indicate him to be Mafia.
2) The only person who would benefit from Risk's death is Toad. Now, my earlier statement on that was it could be a Mafia ploy to distract us, but that would also be immediately obvious so it could be a double trick (kill risk to get suspicion on toad, but we realize that and stop focusing on toad, and then toad is mafia so it was just a convoluted trap that could work). At this point it just gets into an infinite chain of back and forth.
3) one of his earliest posts was to tell blues to post more frequently, which could have been a way to encourage the new Blue's to help the town, or (more likely) try and make them a mafia target.
Anyway, now that i'm a genuine target. As i said, my reasoning for not lynching SK was that my suspicion was not enough to risk lynching him if he's town. If Rammen was town, then we would have ended up losing two townies on day 1, leaving us with a bare majority (we would have 6 out of 10 people), which means every one of us would have to agree. The risk is that if one or two mafia make even an ok case, some town may agree with them and then we get split vote once more.
I wasn't convinced enough on SK to vote for him so i didn't. This is only my first game, so maybe that's just a nooby mistake and it's usually worth it to take a chance on the lynch, but i just didn't think it was in the town's best interest to take that chance.
If Rammen was town, then we would have ended up losing two townies on day 1, leaving us with a bare majority (we would have 6 out of 10 people)
First hyshes posts some shitty logic, then Drem doesn't realize that according to the OP there are: 3 of 3 MAFIA remaining We would have been left with 7 out of 10 people. What the fuck people?
On November 03 2011 03:14 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: Sorry for the three posts in a row, I've kinda been responding to things I think I should respond to as I read the thread.
On November 03 2011 00:04 hyshes wrote: I jus reread the whole thread and i'm going to post a hard statement here.
Ciryandor - Toadesstern - Drem903
These 3 are referring to each other all the time, without direct accusations. This leaves me to think that they don't want eachother lynched.. but wan to have a backup of posts that do kinda disconnect them. There is something really fishy between those 3. I'm willing to go on a vote on one of these three for sure.
....What? I'm really going to need a much more thorough analysis of how you think Ciryandor is scum. Additionally, I want to know why in the hell you think either Ciryandor or Toad could be scum if Drem is, considering Ciryandor called out Drem's posts as something to keep an eye on, and now we have Toad being the first vote of the day and placing it on Drem. I really want to hear how this makes the slightest bit of sense to you.
First of all, i don't see toads vote as a legit one. If i want to distance myself from someone but still don't want to risk him getting lynched, i would vote for him very early in the day cycle. Very little chance that that lynch is going to happen.
I know Ciryandor made a huge post about drem, but he just throws it out there. That post should atleast have ended with a firm FOS or vote on drem to be legit for me. It was to close to the deadline to not call it out.
There posting distances them from eachother, so if one of them gets lynched.. they can refer to these.
yeah, glad I'm not the only guy who got that. I mentioned the same thing as harb about hyshes post earlier, too. I see why he is ignoring my point but ciry STARTING and PUSHING for drem just makes no sense if both are mafia while me being mafia or green isn't even important for that question.
Same with drems post. I thought we've already discussed his 3rd part. Also, I started doing these walls of text BECAUSE last time I made a small post a bunch of crazy people came allong telling me "hey you just told blues to reveil themselves" and I was sitting there thinking wtf is up with you. That's not what I said. So I made sure such a thing isn't happening again by clearifying every single fuck I posted.
sry forgot to quote again, my post was a reply on harbs most recent post above my original I am quoting beneath
On November 03 2011 03:31 Toadesstern wrote: yeah, glad I'm not the only guy who got that. I mentioned the same thing as harb about hyshes post earlier, too. I see why he is ignoring my point but ciry STARTING and PUSHING for drem just makes no sense if both are mafia while me being mafia or green isn't even important for that question.
Same with drems post. I thought we've already discussed his 3rd part. Also, I started doing these walls of text BECAUSE last time I made a small post a bunch of crazy people came allong telling me "hey you just told blues to reveil themselves" and I was sitting there thinking wtf is up with you. That's not what I said. So I made sure such a thing isn't happening again by clearifying every single fuck I posted.
you know, if you guys want to lynch me for having shitty reading comprehension and screwing up the lynch day 1 for not realizing there were only 3 mafia.... then i would not blame you.
We still have a much larger majority, so it's still not the worst situation. Also, even if we did succeed, all it would take was 2 other indecisive townies to vote differently (or vote with mafia unwittingly), to have nothing done today. Either way i could have screwed up much worse, and i do apologize for making the noobiest mistake possible.
Explanation: What he said is basicly what he blames me to do. Doing a mistake although I said it never was a mistake it just wasn't meant to be interpreted that way (still can't believe how someone interpreted it that way...). So that looks scummy by his very own logic, HOWEVER if he truely would be scum, shouldn't he know how much mafias this game got?... I'm just confused right now and don't know who to vote for...
There posting distances them from eachother, so if one of them gets lynched.. they can refer to these.
Risk and I both made one post putting a small amount of suspicion on each other, does that mean we're scum buddies? Oh wait! He flipped green!
But seriously hyshes, you're going to have to make a much more solid case than that if you want me to believe those 3 are scum. Since I am not on your list of scum, I assume you'd want to get me voting in line with you, so please prove it by giving some actual analysis.
As for this:
I know Ciryandor made a huge post about drem, but he just throws it out there. That post should atleast have ended with a firm FOS or vote on drem to be legit for me.
So he either should have voted him or explicitly typed FOS? He clearly stated in his voting post his preferred order was Skrammen over Drem, and he can't vote for both. I wasn't aware you need to type out FOS to let people know you are suspicious of someone, I thought saying "hey, this person has done a ton of suspicious shit which I have listed and explained here" is much stronger than saying nothing but a line or two and FOS on whoever.
Ok guys let's stay on the ball. Just think of my position for a second if I actually am town: If I happen to survive this lynch I NEED to get you a mafia lynch, If I'm not able to make that happen I'm dead because I pushed for someone green and you got all the reasons you need to lynch me without a discussion. So I'd say let's find me a mafia. Right now I got about 5 people who I think might be mafia and I guess in the end 2 of them will be mafia and the one remaining is someone not on my mind right now. Not exactly the way I want it to be.
There posting distances them from eachother, so if one of them gets lynched.. they can refer to these.
Risk and I both made one post putting a small amount of suspicion on each other, does that mean we're scum buddies? Oh wait! He flipped green!
But seriously hyshes, you're going to have to make a much more solid case than that if you want me to believe those 3 are scum. Since I am not on your list of scum, I assume you'd want to get me voting in line with you, so please prove it by giving some actual analysis.
I know Ciryandor made a huge post about drem, but he just throws it out there. That post should atleast have ended with a firm FOS or vote on drem to be legit for me.
So he either should have voted him or explicitly typed FOS? He clearly stated in his voting post his preferred order was Skrammen over Drem, and he can't vote for both. I wasn't aware you need to type out FOS to let people know you are suspicious of someone, I thought saying "hey, this person has done a ton of suspicious shit which I have listed and explained here" is much stronger than saying nothing but a line or two and FOS on whoever.
These three are the only ones that make sense to me after the risk mafia kill. That kill was so strange that there must be something strange going on. I reread the thread twice now, this is the only explanation i could figure out.
@hyshes What about hackle being scum? Surely you don't have enough info on him to tell whether he is scum or town yet, how would he not offer an alternative explanation? I know you are claiming that is the only explanation you can figure out, but since on my reading of the thread I don't see it, can you please spell it out for me a bit more? Pointing out specific posts and parts of posts that you think make them seem scummy, and implicate them in risk's death would be appreciated.
On November 03 2011 04:40 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: @hyshes What about hackle being scum? Surely you don't have enough info on him to tell whether he is scum or town yet, how would he not offer an alternative explanation? I know you are claiming that is the only explanation you can figure out, but since on my reading of the thread I don't see it, can you please spell it out for me a bit more? Pointing out specific posts and parts of posts that you think make them seem scummy, and implicate them in risk's death would be appreciated.
Hackle is a difficult one. He has posted really little.
On the other question: i'm having a real problem explaining it. It's just a combination of the weird risk kill and all the weird post of those 3.
- last post was about being more agressive against people who make mistakes
While we should keep what risk said in mind, imo we should not hesitate to vote someone just for making a noob mistake that could very well be a scum mistake, such as asking, " detective what did you find" or something along those lines.
and he has contributed next to nothing to any of the conversations. His only other notable post was to just say what everyone else said and point out that SKrammen was the prime suspect. Major point to take from this: If chocolate is Mafia, then SKrammen likely isn't. Also, as SKrammen pointed out in one of his posts, chocolate never made a case against him, but was quick to vote for him.
Not once did you FoS on me, yet you preffered to vote me instead of zanfa. You also FoS'd Ciry but claim you didnt. You seem to be a bit everywhere, throwing suspicions left and right. To me, it appears like you are trying to be a bit of an instigator while saying very little of substance. You've posted nearly as little as I have done, and you say you vote me because of lack of activity?
- His last post was to defend himself after Zanfada questioned him for poor word choice in an earlier statement
If you decide to lynch me anyway, and I do flip green, there's a good chance all of the scum will be among those who are most adamant about lynching me. If I flip red, then risk and bunneh got some 'splaining to do.
I.E. he only really posted under the conditions that he accused Zanfada was posting under
What about you. So far, the only thing you have done is come in, instigate somthing on someone else, defend yourself when you got under pressure only to disappear again. And here you are again.
He accuses Zan of only posting when under pressure, yet when the heat drops off of him and goas back to toad, he's nowhere to be seen.
he's probably posted the least of anyone here, so he's either Scum, or an inactive townie. His only notable post to discussion was voting for Toad on day 1 (his vote could also have had SKrammen lynched). Now prior to choosing Toad as his target, he was trying to implicate Zanfada, and he jokingly tries to claim not to be scum because he loves ponies.
## vote toadesstern
I think his moves have been shady since the beginning. First tries to get the important figures to revel themselves (not explicitly, but if a lurker suddenly started posting significantly after it would give mafia a good clue), then follows it up with a lot of talk about the necessity to kill lurkers. To top it off he fingers chocolate only to rescind his vote after no one else follows suit.
There is not a lot to go off of when trying to discern if if he's town/mafia, but there is one notable comment, he is the only person to defend chocolate, and then immediately try and turn all discussion back on Toad. It should be noted, that if hackle is mafia, then so is chocolate, as hackle would have no reason to defend chocolate if he wasn't.
##unvote Toadesstern
I'm unvoteing Toad, because i think i was too hasty in my judgment on him. These three above, are the most suspicious people we have, and should be the ones we put more pressure on.
That's not to say i'm completely changed on Toad, i still have some reservations because, he encouraged blue's to speak more, but he has definitely dropped to 4th on my list after i really looked at the 3 i listed. Toad is, for now, 55% mafia, 45% town if i had to put numbers to how suspicious i am of him.
At first I thought the Risk kill was odd but the more I thought about it Risk’s death should not have come as much of surprise as people are pointing out, He was obviously town, he posted a lot and was aggressive at night when mafia was making their hit list. Whether the hit was to flame the anti toad movement or stall it out and get us to focus on skramm, I am not sure.
I will have post talking about more current stuff when I am down with class and can compile some posts
Ok I'll do a list myself and I got about 5 people who I think might be mafia:
drem Lurking hardcore. That's the main reason here and I don't know why he is lurking so much, but other than that I got nothing on him. Yes he did a big mistake with that mafia numbers but the question really is if that was intentionally. I doubt it, since it's such a major mistake everyone should be able to see the second they read it. So I really think he did that mistake for some reason and it's nothing weird other than not knowing this fact. Also blocked a lynch on day1 with a useless vote (useless vote = vote for choc or zanfa imo)
Skrammen I'm still not convinced of him to be mafia, however I don't like him not posting at all. He's completly ignoring this issue right now. I don't know what I'm supposed to think about him. If there's nothing comming the next couple hours I'm probably going to vote for him. Also blocked a lynch on day1. Not a useful talent toi have.
hackleYet again another one of those "not-posting-guys". I don't like it and it looks strange to say the least. Still nothing certain.
HyshesHe did some weird posts the last 2 pages, I already got a semi-fos on him a few pages before and changed my mind. This theses posts I'm considering him to be mafia again.. Also he blocked a lynch on day1 with a useless vote.
On November 02 2011 21:51 IMABUNNEH wrote: I've just spent half my lunch hour catching up on this and reading through... I hope you're happy
That kill was.... unexpected. Reading back through his posts, Toad is the only person to REALLY benefit from it. I don't think Toad is that stupid, but do we have any scum around that are stupid enough to think that would work? It's such a BLATANT kill that it could mean almost anything with relation to Toads. I can't see it as unrelated though, so the options in my mind are:
1) Toads is scum. Risk was so vehement about it that killing him protects Toads, and nobody would really think Toads that dumb, so he could get away with it.
2) Someone else was trying to implicate Toads to get people off of them, which would make Skrammen scum most likely. Killing Toads would be too obvious perhaps, so framing Toads much better?
3) Risk only brought a case against ONE other person, which was against Harbinger. Perhaps killing someone not too obvious to keep people off himself.
However every explanation both prior to Risk's death and since then seems to include Toad or Skrammen as being red as an option. If one is red the other is almost certainly green, but at this point it is just far too unlikely that neither of them are red.
Once I'm home from work and not on lunchbreak I'll pull up Harbinger's post history as well, see what gems are hiding there, because of point 3, unless someone beats me to it. It's definately something worth looking into, especially as he was a part of the Skrammen "bandwagon". I know we have 48 hours, but I think initially at least we should put some focus on these guys. If we're so spread out like Day 1 we'll end up with a no-lynch, and I think I definately made a mistake not switching to Skrammen Day 1. Initially I was far more suspicious of Toads, but they're almost 50/50 now, and having the information from one of them would have made today a lot easier for us.
and theres nothing wrong with it as far as I am concerned. But I would like to hear some more from him.
I'd say it's either 2 of them + someone else who seems to be town or 3 of them if we're lucky. Also I think mafia spreaded votes a bit to not screw themselves for the chance of someone dieing. I'd say we got about one mafia voting for me, one mafia voting either for choc or zanfa and one more doing whatever he likes (if skrammen is green that 1 guy could vote for skrammen, he could also vote for me or choc/zanfa as well). I doubt we got all 3 mafias in one "place" considering votes.
HyshesHe did some weird posts the last 2 pages, I already got a semi-fos on him a few pages before and changed my mind. This theses posts I'm considering him to be mafia again.. Also he blocked a lynch on day1 with a useless vote.
Actually I don't remember what I wanted to say with my second sentence and it's not making sense, guess I wanted to change this with these? :D I'd say it's something like:
HyshesHe did some weird posts the last 2 pages, I already got a semi-fos on him a few pages before and changed my mind. Because of these posts I'm considering him to be mafia again.. Also he blocked a lynch on day1 with a useless vote.
HyshesHe did some weird posts the last 2 pages, I already got a semi-fos on him a few pages before and changed my mind. This theses posts I'm considering him to be mafia again.. Also he blocked a lynch on day1 with a useless vote.
Actually I don't remember what I wanted to say with my second sentence and it's not making sense, guess I wanted to change this with these? :D I'd say it's something like:
HyshesHe did some weird posts the last 2 pages, I already got a semi-fos on him a few pages before and changed my mind. Because of these posts I'm considering him to be mafia again.. Also he blocked a lynch on day1 with a useless vote.
Ask the host, i was around when the deadline happend. TL f*cked up the [*time*] thing after the hour shift of saturday
HyshesHe did some weird posts the last 2 pages, I already got a semi-fos on him a few pages before and changed my mind. This theses posts I'm considering him to be mafia again.. Also he blocked a lynch on day1 with a useless vote.
Actually I don't remember what I wanted to say with my second sentence and it's not making sense, guess I wanted to change this with these? :D I'd say it's something like:
HyshesHe did some weird posts the last 2 pages, I already got a semi-fos on him a few pages before and changed my mind. Because of these posts I'm considering him to be mafia again.. Also he blocked a lynch on day1 with a useless vote.
Ask the host, i was around when the deadline happend. TL f*cked up the [*time*] thing after the hour shift of saturday
Yeah and that's the reason why I changed my mind and started believing you. The thing that's weird right now still is this post:
On November 03 2011 00:04 hyshes wrote: I jus reread the whole thread and i'm going to post a hard statement here.
Ciryandor - Toadesstern - Drem903
These 3 are referring to each other all the time, without direct accusations. This leaves me to think that they don't want eachother lynched.. but wan to have a backup of posts that do kinda disconnect them. There is something really fishy between those 3. I'm willing to go on a vote on one of these three for sure.
I still think it's wrong and so does harb. Probably a couple other guys too. I'm just not sure why you posted it :p
You seem to leave out Chocolate despite have earlier suspicions on him? What has happened to change that. You claim i'm lurking despite that fact that i post pretty regularly, but seem to disregard the fact that chocolate hasn't posted in ~21 hours.
Again i reiterate my samepoint, it's likely that if hackle is mafia, then chocolate would be also. The reciprocal isn't necessary true, as chocolate never references hackle, but we can't disregard hackles defense and chocolates even more suspicious lurking.
HyshesHe did some weird posts the last 2 pages, I already got a semi-fos on him a few pages before and changed my mind. This theses posts I'm considering him to be mafia again.. Also he blocked a lynch on day1 with a useless vote.
Actually I don't remember what I wanted to say with my second sentence and it's not making sense, guess I wanted to change this with these? :D I'd say it's something like:
HyshesHe did some weird posts the last 2 pages, I already got a semi-fos on him a few pages before and changed my mind. Because of these posts I'm considering him to be mafia again.. Also he blocked a lynch on day1 with a useless vote.
Ask the host, i was around when the deadline happend. TL f*cked up the [*time*] thing after the hour shift of saturday
Yeah and that's the reason why I changed my mind and started believing you. The thing that's weird right now still is this post:
On November 03 2011 00:04 hyshes wrote: I jus reread the whole thread and i'm going to post a hard statement here.
Ciryandor - Toadesstern - Drem903
These 3 are referring to each other all the time, without direct accusations. This leaves me to think that they don't want eachother lynched.. but wan to have a backup of posts that do kinda disconnect them. There is something really fishy between those 3. I'm willing to go on a vote on one of these three for sure.
I still think it's wrong and so does harb. Probably a couple other guys too. I'm just not sure why you posted it :p
I posted that bc i thought it was obvious. I think it had to be stated. Eventhough i don't like hackle's inactivity, i really dislike how you 3 are posting.
I never truely targeted choc, he thought I'm mafia and I thought at that time that hyshes and risk are suspicious so I voted for him, choc responded but I wanted to see a response from either hyshe or risk, which never happened so I unvoted
Also my list was not sorted in any way. If I had to tell you 3 mafias right now it would probably be Skrammen, hackle and maybe bunneh or someone else. Those things against hyshes never were major points, except for that one last post. And yeah you're posts the last 2 pages got you fron #1 mafia to #4 or #5 right now :p
xsksc, you've been pretty quiet, would you mind posting some of your thoughts/analysis? I pretty much have a null read on you currently.
Also, just to mention it, Hacklebeast has posted on TL elsewhere since his last post in here. This suggests to me he is either a disinterested VT, or scum that made his contributions to his scum-buddies but neglected the actual thread. Maybe he'll get mod-killed if he keeps this up, but if he does return I hope he reads this and leaves something along the lines of a detailed analysis giving his current read on every player to compensate for his complete lack of contribution thus far.
Ok read it and yeah it makes sense. Also you got half a defence for bunneh which you did not mention (perhaps because bunneh wasn't an issue for you?).
Skrammen: If you decide to lynch me anyway, and I do flip green, there's a good chance all of the scum will be among those who are most adamant about lynching me. If I flip red, then risk and bunneh got some 'splaining to do.
It could be a weird set-up but given that we know risk it green I might be willing to believe bunneh is probably green too. There's two possible explanations for it imo: 1) Skrammen is red and trying to get us on two townies the moment he flips red. 2) Skrammen is green and just picked those two out of nowhere. I Have issues with his "picks" here. Why did he say bunneh and risk? Ciry was the guy who issued the skrammen lynch, someone (I don't know who right now) followed, and I was the third guy. Whats the reason for choosing bunneh and risken here? Why not go with ciry who issued the wagon or with me? I was having some votes at that time too and the moment skrammen flips green I'm in HUGE trouble here and if he truely is green, he got to know that.
Right now I'm going to say hackle and skrammen are the two guys who are most likely mafia with a preference on hackle. But that's it for me today, got to wake up in 7 hours, I'm going to bed now.
While we should keep what risk said in mind, imo we should not hesitate to vote someone just for making a noob mistake that could very well be a scum mistake, such as asking, " detective what did you find" or something along those lines.
and he has contributed next to nothing to any of the conversations. His only other notable post was to just say what everyone else said and point out that SKrammen was the prime suspect. Major point to take from this: If chocolate is Mafia, then SKrammen likely isn't. Also, as SKrammen pointed out in one of his posts, chocolate never made a case against him, but was quick to vote for him.
Not once did you FoS on me, yet you preffered to vote me instead of zanfa. You also FoS'd Ciry but claim you didnt. You seem to be a bit everywhere, throwing suspicions left and right. To me, it appears like you are trying to be a bit of an instigator while saying very little of substance. You've posted nearly as little as I have done, and you say you vote me because of lack of activity?
I have been gone the entire day as it has been very very busy. I will try to post again later tonight.
Looking at who mafia targeted last night, the most active attacker we had, it makes me think that the mafia are lurking hardcore and attempting to skirt by.
Drem
Makes a number of mistakes making him look more like a newbie and easier to ignore. Asking a question that is answered in the general rule + Show Spoiler +
On October 31 2011 01:19 Drem903 wrote: Are you able to change you're vote after you have voted?
If you're not able to change you're vote, then we also have to be very suspicious of zanfada. We both randomly chose a person to try and encourage discussion, but he actually voted. If you can't change you're vote, then that seems suspicious to me, as he seems in a hurry to lynch someone (anyone). If you can change you're vote, then it's no big deal, but it's still something to consider.
On November 01 2011 03:28 Drem903 wrote: I'll be the first to admit that i am not particularly talkative, although that's mostly because i don't have regular computer access at school.. I have been reading the thread through, and although i still hold zanfada in suspicion, i will also have to agree that SKrammen has not really contributed that much either.
His only notable post just recounts information that everyone should know (though some may not have read the thread too carefully and could've forgotten). Although i feel the need to point out, that SKrammen did call out Zanfada for being hasty to vote (even if he could later rescind the vote). If they were both scum, then it wouldn't make sense for them to call suspicion upon one another.
Zanfada also hasn't posted in a while, and the only notable parts of his posts were: asking the blues to post more frequently (though not to identify themselves), and to defend himself from hacklebeasts own accusations.
So, the people i'm currently very suspicious of are: SKrammen and Zanfada. When i get more time to really look at everyone's posts this might change, but it's just those 2 for now.
##vote Zanfada
The whole not voting for skram even though drem thought skram was scummy + Show Spoiler +
On November 03 2011 03:21 Drem903 wrote: ##vote Toadesstern
Reasons:
1) His posts are long when a simple reply could answer the question (disregarding his analysis post on risk). As scum he's using longer posts to try and cover all possible points that could indicate him to be Mafia.
2) The only person who would benefit from Risk's death is Toad. Now, my earlier statement on that was it could be a Mafia ploy to distract us, but that would also be immediately obvious so it could be a double trick (kill risk to get suspicion on toad, but we realize that and stop focusing on toad, and then toad is mafia so it was just a convoluted trap that could work). At this point it just gets into an infinite chain of back and forth.
3) one of his earliest posts was to tell blues to post more frequently, which could have been a way to encourage the new Blue's to help the town, or (more likely) try and make them a mafia target.
Anyway, now that i'm a genuine target. As i said, my reasoning for not lynching SK was that my suspicion was not enough to risk lynching him if he's town. If Rammen was town, then we would have ended up losing two townies on day 1, leaving us with a bare majority (we would have 6 out of 10 people), which means every one of us would have to agree. The risk is that if one or two mafia make even an ok case, some town may agree with them and then we get split vote once more.
I wasn't convinced enough on SK to vote for him so i didn't. This is only my first game, so maybe that's just a nooby mistake and it's usually worth it to take a chance on the lynch, but i just didn't think it was in the town's best interest to take that chance.
Skram
Has not posted much in days, any his previous posts don’t accually say much. + Show Spoiler +
On October 31 2011 07:20 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: In the interest of getting some other possible discussions going...
Skrammen has now doubled his post count, using his first to say good morning and his second accuses someone for trying to stir up discussion with a vote "so soon", as well as a preemptive excuse for not being active:
And just a head's up: Since we have people from both sides of the pond in this game there is bound to be somewhat of a delay in answers and people might be working or sleeping when some discussions takes place. We should be somewhat tolerant of this, but obviously 24 hours of no posting is not good.
The only people that benefit from a delayed discussion is obviously the mafia, they'd rather it never happen. Also, while his statement is true, I think it was fairly obvious to most people, and scum always like to have an excuse to fall back on.
So FOS on Skrammen for now.
Ah. Well, you see I was only trying to clarify some things so they are clear. I did not however, encourage it.
The only people that benefit from a delayed discussion is obviously the mafia, they'd rather it never happen. Also, while his statement is true, I think it was fairly obvious to most people, and scum always like to have an excuse to fall back on.
I think we both might be talking without saying anything now; both of these things are quite obvious, yet we both had to say it. What I said was just that; A head's up just in case people did not know. Honestly I think this is pretty bad grounds for accusations. I still maintain that a vote 4 hours into the game is pretty suspicious, but not enough to be convinced he is red.
I can take my vote back at any time. The vote was just there to promote talking which it did just that.
What was alot more interesting was Toad's post and how it was received. I personally think blues should post and help the town or they stand out to mafia and playing safe and become much better targets. Also mafia rarely mention blues for the simple fact that it makes them look more like mafia hunting for blues with any mention of blues. The same goes for blues themselves, they want to hide with town and do their job. I think Toad was just trying to prevent what happened last game to happen this game. However his post doesn't say anything more then "post guys" which doesn't further along any conversation it just increase his post count which in my opinion is all mafia try to do for the first day. On October 30 2011 22:54 hacklebeast wrote: Show nested quote +
Unnecessarily trying to start a town panic? Baseless accusing people that, under your own admission, have no evidence against? Sounds like very mafia things to do. I'm not going to go so far as to cast my vote yet, but I'm watching you.
Besides, I could never have committed the crime. Gmarshal I could take or leave, but killing ponies? I don't have it in me to take out something this lovable.
I wasn't starting a town panic, though it seems to have caused you to panic a little. Your response to my vote seems to be an emotional plea involving ponies and a FOS but little more then that. It seems as if you are trying to not draw any sort of attention to yourself even after a vote has already been placed on you. Normally I would take this as a scum tell but it seems more like a newbie tell then a mafia at this point.
Then there is Ciryandor, he defended me and my baseless attack on someone. The only time I usually am defended is when scum are trying to buddy up with me. Or since he has played a few games he is just trying to let newbies know what I was doing. Still FOS for now.
This is his answer to why he did it, and to be honest, it worked, he got stuff going which is good. I will be keeping an eye out, but at this point his reasoning seems good enough for me. As you said earlier, delaying discussion is indicative of scummy behaviour, or perhaps it might not be? An elaborate ruse?
In that post he says that my quick day one vote was a good move to getting the ball rolling as well as scummy.
It has been over 24 hours since he has posted anything, I think after his near miss he has been spoked into hiding. Also Risk died defending him, what is a better claim then saying the person protecting me was innocent so I must be as well.
hacklebeast
Its been over 48 hours since he has posted that is fucking crazy if you ask me, Hackle you need to post a lot more and now. Otherwise its going to be a mod kill
On November 03 2011 08:08 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: Ciryandor, I would also like to hear what your current thoughts are when you get the chance. You've posted today, but none of your usual analysis yet.
Just woke up and heading into work in a bit. I've got a big event that I'm staffing for so expect very very spotty presence from me until Saturday evening in Korea time. However, a quick read-through just makes me wonder why hyshes suddenly is screaming that drem and I are scum, simply because I didn't vote drem but I bothered to put together a big post-by-post of his activity in this game. I might have the time to dig through hyshes' posts one by one like I did with drem and Skrammen, but right now, drem's pinging very bad on my scum radar right now.
Just as an example, drem's multiple mistakes in this game:
If Rammen was town, then we would have ended up losing two townies on day 1, leaving us with a bare majority (we would have 6 out of 10 people)
First hyshes posts some shitty logic, then Drem doesn't realize that according to the OP there are: 3 of 3 MAFIA remaining We would have been left with 7 out of 10 people. What the fuck people?
First he says we're going to be near LYLO territory if he had lynched someone.
Then:
On November 03 2011 03:35 Drem903 wrote: you know, if you guys want to lynch me for having shitty reading comprehension and screwing up the lynch day 1 for not realizing there were only 3 mafia.... then i would not blame you.
We still have a much larger majority, so it's still not the worst situation. Also, even if we did succeed, all it would take was 2 other indecisive townies to vote differently (or vote with mafia unwittingly), to have nothing done today. Either way i could have screwed up much worse, and i do apologize for making the noobiest mistake possible.
Dude, even if all the scum managed to convince two townies to vote for other people and they voted for the same person, if the whole town sees fit to try and lynch someone (6 townies), we still get a lynch, not another no-lynch day.
I'm going to call him out on spreading FUD to people who don't count the lynches required.
## Vote Drem903
On that note, I still believe Skrammen's hardcore lurking worth looking at, and I can switch if people still believe Skrammen is more scummy based on my analysis and subsequent inactivity after I FOSed him then he barely escaped the lynch. Still, it does not remove the fact that what Drem did in spreading the second point I just highlighted reeks of scum play.
Drem seems almost absolutely mafia to me. Tomorrow evening I will try to compile a list of who everyone has accused/fosd to make it easier for us to identify who the mafia are, or at least who is ignoring who. TBH drem seems suspicious because he is throwing accusations everywhere and the main people he is accusing are the ones who are after him. Yes I am very suspicious of hacklebeast, especially since he hasn't posted since the end of the last day, but I don't see much more to be suspicious of because he has only two posts of any substance.
On November 03 2011 07:57 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: @Toad, he said if he flips red risk and bunneh have issues. Not if he flips green. He said that because risk and bunneh defended him.
I can't talk for risk, but as far as myself I don't think defended is the right word. On the first day I didn't think he'd done enough to be suspicious enough to be lynched, whereas I thought Toad most definately had. Since then, with his posting suddenly disappearing, and a couple of his posts just before that, you can see I definately became more suspicious of him. Between him and Toad it dropped to 50/50, and I'm still certain one of them has to be red. Too many explanations for what's happened so far leads to one of those 2 being a logically sound conclusion, and risk being killed just adds weight that there was something going on there. If I'm next on the hitlist though, I would actually think Skrammen over Toads, as obviously he wouldn't be dumb enough to kill his only 2 "supporters". Perhaps.
Hyshes
I jus reread the whole thread and i'm going to post a hard statement here.
Ciryandor - Toadesstern - Drem903
See I actually agree with the other feelings on this. Ciry, Toad and Drem have all (if I'm remembering right as I post) been reasonably aggressive towards each other at certain points in this game, including (withdrawn?) votes. If all 3 of them are scum, I think I would eat my own foot. Any one of them you could probably put together a reasonable case for if you took their posts in a vacuum, but all 3 together, with context, just doesn't make ANY sense, and seems to be a method of saying "Hey guys look at them!"... which is another way of saying "Don't look at me even though I'm here!"
However I also don't like what I saw with Toad and Drem's initial voting today. They voted for each other, and then both withdrew their votes from each other. Their reasoning was both "I was too hasty, these guys are totally more suspicious", and that makes me suspicious of both of them. Unless they were votes to see how people would react, remarkably synched together in reasoning, it seems too much of a coincidence to me.
However, I don't like that Skrammen hasn't posted since barely surviving. He's hiding too much for me, and my suspicion of him has basically done nothing since go up since I refused to vote for him. Unless I see something compelling from him, I'm going to have to make a provisional
##Vote SKrammen
Unless he posts something worthwhile, and worth waiting for, I'm unlikely to change this despite my other suspicions. It keeps coming back to him and Toads, but at least Toad doesn't look like he's trying to hide.
On November 03 2011 09:44 Chocolate wrote: Drem seems almost absolutely mafia to me. Tomorrow evening I will try to compile a list of who everyone has accused/fosd to make it easier for us to identify who the mafia are, or at least who is ignoring who. TBH drem seems suspicious because he is throwing accusations everywhere and the main people he is accusing are the ones who are after him. Yes I am very suspicious of hacklebeast, especially since he hasn't posted since the end of the last day, but I don't see much more to be suspicious of because he has only two posts of any substance.
the people i've accused genuinely accused: Zanfada (not great reasoning, but it was only my first day, and he just seemed suspicious), SKrammen, YOU, hackle, and Toad.
Of those 5 Toad and SK are the one's i've been constant about, and toad is the only one to make any real accusations against me. Zanfada i hold no real suspicion of anymore.
You claim that i only accuse those who have accused me, but the only person that MIGHT be true for is Toad, but i had expressed suspicion of Toad before he ever accused me of anything, so you're point there is moot. You're even a hypocrite, as you are doing exactly what you accuse me of. I express doubt that you are town, and just a few hours later you show up to defend yourself from the first real accusation against you, and immediately say that i am definitely mafia. That sounds like something scum would do if they were genuinely concerned they'd be caught.
Unless he posts something worthwhile, and worth waiting for, I'm unlikely to change this despite my other suspicions.
Just quoting myself to add something to this. This is my current viewpoint with our current information, and this is a serious vote. However I don't think we can risk a no-lynch again. We all know full well the reasonings behind SKrammen, though I could elaborate for anyone who has missed the last 5 pages. However I think if we have enough people near the end of the day voting for someone specific but are still split, it would benefit us to force the lynch to at least get some real information. I would be extremely suspicious after Day 1 of anyone who may be trying to block a lynch from occurring.
The reason for this is that at that point, bunneh and risk were defending me, and thus me flipping would be bad news for them. Perhaps pretty redundant but still true.
So lets think about it. Risk turned out to be green. If I were a red, how would I benefit from his death? He blocked my lynch, and he seemed pretty adamant about my affiliations. Now that he's gone it might reinforce any suspicions you have of me or toad, which is exactly what the scum wants, they want either of us lynched on day 2.
Your vote for Drem earlier was a vote for the sake of voting, nothing solid to go on. Your unvote was also on very poor grounds.
What I do think of this situation is that me and toad are just two townies pointing fingers at each other. I've not removed you from my list of people to look at, but at this point in time, I do not think you are a scum. You're pointing fingers at basically everyone in this game, which is either poor mafia play or good townie play.
At this point its obvious that either one of us is a scum, or none of us.
I do not think there would be more than 1 mafia voting for me. Risk voted Toadsstern and we know he turned out to be town. Hacklebeast also voted for him, and so did bunneh. But what if we consider hyshes and drem's vote on Zanfada to be a safe-vote, so to speak? Or do you think this is very poor mafia play? At this point im not sure, but im pointing my finger on drem. + Show Spoiler +
the people i've accused genuinely accused: Zanfada (not great reasoning, but it was only my first day, and he just seemed suspicious), SKrammen, YOU, hackle, and Toad.
If we say that he would not accuse a fellow mafia, there is stil chocolate, bunneh, hyshes, ciry, xskcx and HoD left.
Now, I believe there is somthing there worth investigating.
Of those 5 Toad and SK are the one's i've been constant about, and toad is the only one to make any real accusations against me. Zanfada i hold no real suspicion of anymore.
Why not vote me? Seems like an easy lynch. It would probably give you some answers, too. But you knew that I would flip green, and when that happened you do not want to be on the list as a scum.
1) His posts are long when a simple reply could answer the question (disregarding his analysis post on risk). As scum he's using longer posts to try and cover all possible points that could indicate him to be Mafia.
Yes, or perhaps his excuse is a valid one. I made a comment about time-zones and it nearly got me lynched.
2) The only person who would benefit from Risk's death is Toad. Now, my earlier statement on that was it could be a Mafia ploy to distract us, but that would also be immediately obvious so it could be a double trick (kill risk to get suspicion on toad, but we realize that and stop focusing on toad, and then toad is mafia so it was just a convoluted trap that could work). At this point it just gets into an infinite chain of back and forth.
Now this is interesting. You're right - it could be a double trick. Or a triple trick, or whatever. I think getting rid of risk is too obvious, and I dont think it would benefit him. Sometimes there is not a hidden meaning, and sometimes the most obvious answer is the right one. But we can not be 100% certain untill we get some lynching done. At this time, I believe Drem to be a valid lynch. Another day without a lynch is getting us nowhere.
Your vote for Drem earlier was a vote for the sake of voting, nothing solid to go on. Your unvote was also on very poor grounds.
During the 2~ hours it took me to write up a post i changed my mind about this. I still think his reasoning was poor, but I found what I think is a better reason for it, and I went with it.
If i had changed my vote to you, and you flipped green, everyone who voted for you would have been under heavy suspicion of being scum. So that's 7 people, of which i was 1, so what reasoning would i have to block you're vote if i was mafia? I wouldn't be that much more suspicious than any of the other 6.
For every towny that dies the mafia becomes stronger. If was mafia and had changed my vote to you, and i had said you were suspicious so it's not unlikely for a person to decide to agree with the majority if they had similar convictions, then why would i not vote for you to get you out of the way? The fact is, i didn't have enough conviction to accuse you as i didn't feel that you were necessarily scum. I wasn't convinced enough to take that risk. Bad townie play? possibly. Even worse mafia play? i would believe so.
@Skrammen Since you reappeared, I would like to reassert my earlier request; If you value your life, please make a post of the following: 1) At least 2, preferably 3 people you think are scum 2) Explanations and some analysis of why you think they are scum 3) At least 2, preferably more, people you think are town, excluding yourself 4) Explanations of why you think they are town 5) What you think the goal of the risk.nuke shooting was
@hyshes Have you reconsidered your 3 scum picks yet? If Ciry and Drem are both scum, why would Ciry now be voting for and bringing intense scrutiny to Drem? Do you honestly think that mafia would be bussing one of their players on day 2?
On November 03 2011 11:17 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: @hyshes Have you reconsidered your 3 scum picks yet? If Ciry and Drem are both scum, why would Ciry now be voting for and bringing intense scrutiny to Drem? Do you honestly think that mafia would be bussing one of their players on day 2?
Actually i would call that good play. Atleast in my head does that line up with good tactics.
On November 03 2011 11:09 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: @Skrammen Since you reappeared, I would like to reassert my earlier request; If you value your life, please make a post of the following: 1) At least 2, preferably 3 people you think are scum 2) Explanations and some analysis of why you think they are scum 3) At least 2, preferably more, people you think are town, excluding yourself 4) Explanations of why you think they are town 5) What you think the goal of the risk.nuke shooting was
I'm going to reply to this quickly for now, and I will come back with a more thorough respons once I get my sleep. I've been busy all day and its getting late over here.
1) At this point I think atleast Drem is a scum. Im suspicious of Hyshes and chocolate, but Toad is still on my radar.
3) I think Bunneh is a townie. Ciry seems pro-town and I havnt made my mind up about the rest of them, but im about 50-50 on Zanfada and yourself.
5) I believe the biggest reason for getting rid of risk is to get either me or toad lynched today. If I get lynched and flip green, toad is very very suspicious. If toad gets lynched and flips green then that would put pressure on me and those who pushed toad the most.
@Bunneh I thought you were going to look into my post history and make a statement regarding it? Am I not special enough for that? :-(
Once I'm home from work and not on lunchbreak I'll pull up Harbinger's post history as well, see what gems are hiding there, because of point 3, unless someone beats me to it. It's definately something worth looking into, especially as he was a part of the Skrammen "bandwagon".
@hyshes Who are three or four people you think are the most likely to be town? A bit on why if possible would be helpful, although I know explanations are not your strong point.
On November 01 2011 08:41 Chocolate wrote: He needs to defend himself more if he wants to lose my vote, and probably others (can't say for sure). Also @risk.nuke, I was amused when I saw your reasoning behind not voting on skrammen. It seems a little hypocritical to defend someone and say nobody is defending him. But you still bring up a valid point.
This post in particular is strange. He responds to people's question on his motivation for voting for SK, but his reasoning is simple "i want him to post more". That's pretty crappy reasoning considering there were plenty of people with even less posted, that had contributed just as little, and you had expressed no prior suspicion.
The list is also out of place. It's just there. Why? Why write up a list if you're not going to make any comments about it. There was no reason, to write it other than useless padding (again, to build the illusion of helping)
2)Again i direct you to my earlier post, you accuse me of only posting when being attacked yet you are doing exactly that. Not only that, you're original statement didn't really have any evidence against me to begin with.
3) You really don't give any reason to vote for me other than "he accused a few other people", which is something that almost everyone here has done. You yourself said you were suspicious of several people, and never made anything of it. So how am i any worse off than you are. Also, it was only Toad that ever accused me of everything. The other people i accused never said anything about me.
4)Finally, you were gone for nearly 24h. You said you were busy all day, which isn't impossible, but a full 24 hour period is longer than a day, and i doubt you were unable to contribute anything to the thread at some point in that time interval.
-you can ignore my 4th point if you want as he really could have been unable to post for an entire day, but it is equally likely that it was an excuse-
I was thinking of waiting until I have some more info, but the more I look at it the more confident I am.
Hyshes is SCUM
Why do I say this? To start, let's begin with some simple facts: 1) The only people with knowledge of this game not contained within this thread are scum, or a detective. 2) People with the same knowledge, reading the same thread, should come to similar conclusions, and these conclusions should converge as time passes and information accumulates.
And then Hyshes drops this on us:
I jus reread the whole thread and i'm going to post a hard statement here.
Ciryandor - Toadesstern - Drem903
These 3 are referring to each other all the time, without direct accusations. This leaves me to think that they don't want eachother lynched.. but wan to have a backup of posts that do kinda disconnect them. There is something really fishy between those 3. I'm willing to go on a vote on one of these three for sure.
Well what in the fuck is that? Ciry is near the top of most people's town lists. Now we have Hyshes listing him as scum?
Then there is Toad, this guy is very active, answers anything asked of his immediately, and his posting method seems to be make the post, and double post if he needs to edit it. That carefree and transparent posting manner seems pretty townie to me. Given that besides Hyshes only Drem and Skrammen have called any suspicion on Toad so far today, and even they do not put him on top of their lists. I think it is clear at least most people do not see Toad as very scummy right now.
As for Drem...well, he is actually a target for some. Perhaps he was included to try to give some more credibility to this list? Also, given this: + Show Spoiler +
On November 03 2011 11:17 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: @hyshes Have you reconsidered your 3 scum picks yet? If Ciry and Drem are both scum, why would Ciry now be voting for and bringing intense scrutiny to Drem? Do you honestly think that mafia would be bussing one of their players on day 2?
Actually i would call that good play. Atleast in my head does that line up with good tactics.
It is also not entirely out of the question that Hyshes is willing to indict a fellow scum, although I would not say it is the most likely.
So how could his list make sense? I think we have three options here: 1) He is a dt, checked Ciry, and Ciry came up red. We are not even guaranteed to have a dt, and if we did I would find it absurd that they would check Ciry first. I will be generous and give this 1% probability. 2) His reading comprehension is awful at best, and he therefore managed to come to a conclusion very different from anyone else. This is a newbie game, and his country listed on his profile isn't an english speaking one, so I will again be very generous, and give this a 9% chance. 3) He is scum and his list makes sense because he knows who really is scum, and because he wants to do as much as possible to discredit and cast suspicion on townies. I give this the remaining 90% probability.
So, just from that it is looking very likely to me that Hyshes is scum, but let's go into some more detail. I will present my arguments in order of what I think their strength is, with the strongest ones first.
He posts a reasonable amount, but mostly says very little, does no real analysis, and overall makes no contributions to town efforts. He also makes one posts indirectly defending inactivity:
@IMABUNNEH even though i don't like inactives either, direct attacks seem a bit off.
Much more interesting than that though, is how often he asks people questions. Let's review every question he has directed at players in the thread.
So who is left on the list of non-poster?
A useless filler post that he could easily answer himself.
Toadesstern, could you please direct your questions to people in specific? We can not always be sure who you mean with "you" (just because i'm not sure if you are asking me anything)
Again, not really looking for information from Toad, just checking to see if he is supposed to answer something.
btw Ciryandor , are you going to spend post #2000 in a newbie mafia game?
Once again a filler post.
And that's it. He literally wants no information from his fellow players. How could that possibly be? Easy, he knows everything important because Hyshes is scum.
Next, let's investigate his issues regarding the vote deadline: + Show Spoiler +
I was actually around when the day ended but because the [*time*] thingy of teamliquid did not change until past night for european timezones (we had a timeshift saturday) i missed it by a few minutes. (you can ask our host, i msged him about it)
that is what i said... i needed a vote to not get modkilled.. so i voted for the most suspicous person back then... I probably would have chosen for a lynch if i didn't miss the deadline... (but that is void now)
While I understand there may have been some confusion regarding the time, why didn't he make a post in the thread then? Also, why did he message the host about it? I think most townies would have posted their vote change, or at least their question, in the thread and hoped for the best. But perhaps he had a question about night actions that he wanted to ask the host as well so he just bundled it up with that, perhaps a question about role-blocking or killing. Or maybe because he is scum, he knew whether or not Skrammen is. If Skrammen is scum, no reason to change your vote and get your buddy killed. If he isn't scum, being the last person to last second change their vote to get a townie lynched would seem scummy as hell. Either way, best to keep quiet.
How about his lovely analysis to support his position? + Show Spoiler +
On November 03 2011 04:40 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: @hyshes What about hackle being scum? Surely you don't have enough info on him to tell whether he is scum or town yet, how would he not offer an alternative explanation? I know you are claiming that is the only explanation you can figure out, but since on my reading of the thread I don't see it, can you please spell it out for me a bit more? Pointing out specific posts and parts of posts that you think make them seem scummy, and implicate them in risk's death would be appreciated.
Hackle is a difficult one. He has posted really little.
On the other question: i'm having a real problem explaining it. It's just a combination of the weird risk kill and all the weird post of those 3.
You know what makes it really difficult to give a reason for people being scum? Knowing that they aren't scum. Even when pressed repeatedly his best explanations are along the lines of "I thought it was obvious" and "it was the only explanation I could figure out". I can figure out a ton of possible scenarios, why? Because I only know what is in this thread, unlike Hyshes.
His complete refusal to include Hackle to produce an alternative explanation compounds the problem. I think most townies can envision at least one scenario where Hackle nicely fits the role of the third scum that they can't seem to find otherwise.
Day 1 he votes for Zanfada. While I think some townies were genuinely suspicious of Zanfada, I also think scum saw his early vote and decided to use it to feed the idea that Zanfada is scummy, despite the fact that attention-getting, aggressive moves that start the initial conversations going are rarely how scum will start a game off. I also think scum was unlikely to pool their votes. If they all voted for Skrammen and he flipped green, they would be grouped together and absolutely fucked. Therefore I find it very likely that one of the votes for Zanfada was from scum. It is interesting to note that since day 2 started nobody has accused Zanfada of being scum, and he has even made several townie lists. I think this is clear evidence in scum involvement in throwing suspicion on him.
Possibly of note, the following people called some suspicion on Zanfada day 1: Drem, Chocolate, Skraamen, Hyshes, Xsksc, Bunneh.
Drem is also on my list and there seems to be no backup for a vote on toad.
Changing your vote to go with someone else that you think is scum and can get lynched can obviously be a townie move, however, I find it very interesting that he started with a vote for Toad. I think perhaps that scum had hoped to raise suspicion on Toad with the shooting of Risk, and this vote was an attempt to increase the pressure and suspicion on him. Upon seeing that isn't happening, he simply switches to Drem and leaves it at that. Again, this is possibly a null-read, but something to consider as well.
On November 03 2011 07:57 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: @Toad, he said if he flips red risk and bunneh have issues. Not if he flips green. He said that because risk and bunneh defended him.
oh yeah... should have went to bad instead of posting half asleep :p That was just bullshit coming out of me.
Right now I'd still like to push for hackle the most. Drem and skrammen both are strange but I'm not sure about both right now. Drems mistake the other day is just so simple it got to be a real mistake rather than a scumslip. Also given he doesen't know how many mafias are in this game I'd sag he's not mafia. I still got a feeling skrammen might be green, I'm off to univerity now and will look this through later on.
Also, made my post before harbs most recent one. Read it and I'm going to check hyshes history myself once I'm back to get a little context but from what he quoted it seems legit. Just depends on wheter or not he left out important information, therefore checking for context is important. However, if he really is not interested in finding mafia at all (which is basicly your first point, yeah he might say he wants to get them but he's not doing so if what you said it correct) that's terribly looking weird.
Thats a pretty strong case harbringer, not gonna vote on it yet though.
I'm pretty torn between drem skrammen and toad at the moment, gonna re-read the thread again before I decide my vote.
We NEED a lynch today, day 1 was terrible with people leaving votes on people who were never gonna get lynched, so we missed a lot of potential information there.
I think my scum list at the moment would be something like this
1) Toad OR Skrammen
2) Drem
3) Hyshes or some random inactive like Hackle
This list is definitely not set in stone, I only recently added drem to it and hyshes could probably be replaced by a lot of people I haven't properly looked at yet.
Harbringers case is good, but it doesn't make me 100% feel hes scum.
Will update when I've finished re-reading/filtering.
On November 03 2011 15:08 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: I was thinking of waiting until I have some more info, but the more I look at it the more confident I am.
Hyshes is SCUM
Why do I say this? To start, let's begin with some simple facts: 1) The only people with knowledge of this game not contained within this thread are scum, or a detective. 2) People with the same knowledge, reading the same thread, should come to similar conclusions, and these conclusions should converge as time passes and information accumulates.
I jus reread the whole thread and i'm going to post a hard statement here.
Ciryandor - Toadesstern - Drem903
These 3 are referring to each other all the time, without direct accusations. This leaves me to think that they don't want eachother lynched.. but wan to have a backup of posts that do kinda disconnect them. There is something really fishy between those 3. I'm willing to go on a vote on one of these three for sure.
Well what in the fuck is that? Ciry is near the top of most people's town lists. Now we have Hyshes listing him as scum?
Then there is Toad, this guy is very active, answers anything asked of his immediately, and his posting method seems to be make the post, and double post if he needs to edit it. That carefree and transparent posting manner seems pretty townie to me. Given that besides Hyshes only Drem and Skrammen have called any suspicion on Toad so far today, and even they do not put him on top of their lists. I think it is clear at least most people do not see Toad as very scummy right now.
As for Drem...well, he is actually a target for some. Perhaps he was included to try to give some more credibility to this list? Also, given this: + Show Spoiler +
On November 03 2011 11:17 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: @hyshes Have you reconsidered your 3 scum picks yet? If Ciry and Drem are both scum, why would Ciry now be voting for and bringing intense scrutiny to Drem? Do you honestly think that mafia would be bussing one of their players on day 2?
Actually i would call that good play. Atleast in my head does that line up with good tactics.
It is also not entirely out of the question that Hyshes is willing to indict a fellow scum, although I would not say it is the most likely.
So how could his list make sense? I think we have three options here: 1) He is a dt, checked Ciry, and Ciry came up red. We are not even guaranteed to have a dt, and if we did I would find it absurd that they would check Ciry first. I will be generous and give this 1% probability. 2) His reading comprehension is awful at best, and he therefore managed to come to a conclusion very different from anyone else. This is a newbie game, and his country listed on his profile isn't an english speaking one, so I will again be very generous, and give this a 9% chance. 3) He is scum and his list makes sense because he knows who really is scum, and because he wants to do as much as possible to discredit and cast suspicion on townies. I give this the remaining 90% probability.
So, just from that it is looking very likely to me that Hyshes is scum, but let's go into some more detail. I will present my arguments in order of what I think their strength is, with the strongest ones first.
He posts a reasonable amount, but mostly says very little, does no real analysis, and overall makes no contributions to town efforts. He also makes one posts indirectly defending inactivity:
@IMABUNNEH even though i don't like inactives either, direct attacks seem a bit off.
Much more interesting than that though, is how often he asks people questions. Let's review every question he has directed at players in the thread.
So who is left on the list of non-poster?
A useless filler post that he could easily answer himself.
Toadesstern, could you please direct your questions to people in specific? We can not always be sure who you mean with "you" (just because i'm not sure if you are asking me anything)
Again, not really looking for information from Toad, just checking to see if he is supposed to answer something.
btw Ciryandor , are you going to spend post #2000 in a newbie mafia game?
Once again a filler post.
And that's it. He literally wants no information from his fellow players. How could that possibly be? Easy, he knows everything important because Hyshes is scum.
Next, let's investigate his issues regarding the vote deadline: + Show Spoiler +
I was actually around when the day ended but because the [*time*] thingy of teamliquid did not change until past night for european timezones (we had a timeshift saturday) i missed it by a few minutes. (you can ask our host, i msged him about it)
that is what i said... i needed a vote to not get modkilled.. so i voted for the most suspicous person back then... I probably would have chosen for a lynch if i didn't miss the deadline... (but that is void now)
While I understand there may have been some confusion regarding the time, why didn't he make a post in the thread then? Also, why did he message the host about it? I think most townies would have posted their vote change, or at least their question, in the thread and hoped for the best. But perhaps he had a question about night actions that he wanted to ask the host as well so he just bundled it up with that, perhaps a question about role-blocking or killing. Or maybe because he is scum, he knew whether or not Skrammen is. If Skrammen is scum, no reason to change your vote and get your buddy killed. If he isn't scum, being the last person to last second change their vote to get a townie lynched would seem scummy as hell. Either way, best to keep quiet.
How about his lovely analysis to support his position? + Show Spoiler +
On November 03 2011 04:40 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: @hyshes What about hackle being scum? Surely you don't have enough info on him to tell whether he is scum or town yet, how would he not offer an alternative explanation? I know you are claiming that is the only explanation you can figure out, but since on my reading of the thread I don't see it, can you please spell it out for me a bit more? Pointing out specific posts and parts of posts that you think make them seem scummy, and implicate them in risk's death would be appreciated.
Hackle is a difficult one. He has posted really little.
On the other question: i'm having a real problem explaining it. It's just a combination of the weird risk kill and all the weird post of those 3.
You know what makes it really difficult to give a reason for people being scum? Knowing that they aren't scum. Even when pressed repeatedly his best explanations are along the lines of "I thought it was obvious" and "it was the only explanation I could figure out". I can figure out a ton of possible scenarios, why? Because I only know what is in this thread, unlike Hyshes.
His complete refusal to include Hackle to produce an alternative explanation compounds the problem. I think most townies can envision at least one scenario where Hackle nicely fits the role of the third scum that they can't seem to find otherwise.
Day 1 he votes for Zanfada. While I think some townies were genuinely suspicious of Zanfada, I also think scum saw his early vote and decided to use it to feed the idea that Zanfada is scummy, despite the fact that attention-getting, aggressive moves that start the initial conversations going are rarely how scum will start a game off. I also think scum was unlikely to pool their votes. If they all voted for Skrammen and he flipped green, they would be grouped together and absolutely fucked. Therefore I find it very likely that one of the votes for Zanfada was from scum. It is interesting to note that since day 2 started nobody has accused Zanfada of being scum, and he has even made several townie lists. I think this is clear evidence in scum involvement in throwing suspicion on him.
Possibly of note, the following people called some suspicion on Zanfada day 1: Drem, Chocolate, Skraamen, Hyshes, Xsksc, Bunneh.
Drem is also on my list and there seems to be no backup for a vote on toad.
Changing your vote to go with someone else that you think is scum and can get lynched can obviously be a townie move, however, I find it very interesting that he started with a vote for Toad. I think perhaps that scum had hoped to raise suspicion on Toad with the shooting of Risk, and this vote was an attempt to increase the pressure and suspicion on him. Upon seeing that isn't happening, he simply switches to Drem and leaves it at that. Again, this is possibly a null-read, but something to consider as well.
Actually, for me it's kinda obvious who the 4 (3scum + 1 detective) persons are who have extra information. Obviously I'm not gonna post the 4 names, since otherwise the 3 scum will kill the detective next night. What i will do is try to find in my list of 4 a certain scum and post this with a analysis.
wtf is this hyshes. I am almost certain harb's green. I'm not going to stop voteing for you because of those 3 posts and to tell the truth all 3 aren't exactly looking town.
I've got my vote on hyshes as well ## Vote Hyshes
Also how do you know we got a dt? We don't have to have one. Yeah couple of people look blue but they could be medics as well or one medic one dt or whatever. And btw that could be a reason why mafia did not go for obvious lynches as well. Maybe they feared there actually is a medic who would get a hero safe on someone like ciry on day1.
A townie is just not going to say "yeah go ahead and lynch me" just because of one vote, no matter how strong the case. He would try to defend and tell the guy where his mistake is to make sure he's not getting lynched because after all, a 100% townie lynch is worse than a 90% townie lynch. After all you know for certain if you are town or not. I did the same although I phrased it a little bit different. I told you to lynch either skrammen or me as I thought it's the only majoritys we're going to get today and since I know I'm not mafia I went for skrammen because I thought he's something about 50% town which is still better than a lynch on me.
Also if you REALLY know 3 scums + dt (however that's possible) there would be no problem to tell us. Yeah our dt would die but who cares if we got a 100% proof list of those 3 scums (which is never going to happen). So that last post just makes no sense. Maybe you got a decent idea, I think I got a decent idea of who might be blue and who might be mafia too but I'm not going to be as bold to say I'm 100% sure. Additionally a DT really hasn't that much extra information. I'd say (that is if we got one!) he either checked skrammen or me on night1. So he either knows if I'm red/green or if skrammen is red/green but that's still 9 people left (11 - 1 he checked - himself) he's completly unaware of.
Oh and to just clear things up again before a bunch of crazy people come around and yell at me "you just told him to tell who's the blue guy". That's not what I meant. I said if he really had a 100% proof list than there would be no problem in telling us. This 100% list is not possible at this point in time. No matter how much information you got unless you're mafia (even in that case you only got a decent guess on who is blue). So that's just an impossible scenario.
On November 03 2011 11:41 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: @Bunneh I thought you were going to look into my post history and make a statement regarding it? Am I not special enough for that? :-(
Once I'm home from work and not on lunchbreak I'll pull up Harbinger's post history as well, see what gems are hiding there, because of point 3, unless someone beats me to it. It's definately something worth looking into, especially as he was a part of the Skrammen "bandwagon".
I will but it won't be for a few hours. Last night I went out after work, came home a bit worse for wear, got in the post that I did, but wasn't up to reading your full post history. I will have it analysed as townie or scum before the votes are finalised tonight though. From a quick scan (mostly from the posts you specifically pulled, so take it with a grain of salt ) I don't think you're showing up as Red, or at least not top 3 suspects.
##unvote drem ##vote hyshes
I no longer have a clue what hyshes is doing. Either he's a townie who has gone all emo because people put such a good case on him, or he's scum doing the stupidest thing."I could try and defend myself, or I can just agree to vote myself".
Yet if he was townie, why would he vote to have himself lynched? There's still time for him to put forward a case either to defend himself, or to make a case on somebody else. But instead he just spent the last 3 or 4 posts saying "Yeah lynch me". Wtf is that? A townie can be open and honest, the mafia are the ones far more likely to try and play silly bugger mind games like that.
1) We got a case here 2) If he is not willing to defend himself himself we can't stop lynching him because of that, because it's not making sense 3) The only possible thing is him being red and thinking he's going to get lynched anyway so he might as well try that one.
NO Townie want's to get himself lynched unless it's not possible to not get lynched for some strange reasons, but he'd still try to prevent it (look at my case).
OK yeah wtf, thats really weird behaviour hyshes, and definitely enough for me to place a vote on you. You're either retarded town or scum with no defence.
On November 03 2011 21:36 Toadesstern wrote: 1) We got a case here 2) If he is not willing to defend himself himself we can't stop lynching him because of that, because it's not making sense 3) The only possible thing is him being red and thinking he's going to get lynched anyway so he might as well try that one.
NO Townie want's to get himself lynched unless it's not possible to not get lynched for some strange reasons, but he'd still try to prevent it (look at my case).
I'm going to agree with this. What townie would try and get themselves lynched? All that does is dick the town over even more, so either he's given up playing, which means no big loss, or for reasons stated above, he's scum. I can barely even analyse it on any meaningful level, there's basically nothing to say.
I don't see what this could achieve as a townie, and it's definately enough to change my vote for today. hyshes is scum.
I could consider a vote on myself as a townie if I already got a majority. In that case one could argue it's probably ok because otherwise you're going to die anyway but this just makes no sense with 1 vote on him and a post from harb. Also if I would consider voting myself as I townie I sure as hell would make a big post. Knowing I'm going to die I would write down everything I know / think to be true with everything that could possibly help town once they see I flipped green. However I would NOT just go ahead and write "yeah fine whatevs, lynch me" without something else.
I'm not retarded, and this aint stupid play either. It's the only play i got left to have a possible chance on a town win. I'm just kinda hoping it will open your eyes. I'm just offering good working material here. for that purpose, i'm willing to do a sacrifice here.
After my action here it will be 6towns vs 3 mafia (assuming mafia kills a townie next night), so still a good majority for the town. Maybe if towns is lucky, it will be 7vs3..
On November 03 2011 22:16 hyshes wrote: I'm not retarded, and this aint stupid play either. It's the only play i got left to have a possible chance on a town win. I'm just kinda hoping it will open your eyes. I'm just offering good working material here. for that purpose, i'm willing to do a sacrifice here.
After my action here it will be 6towns vs 3 mafia (assuming mafia kills a townie next night), so still a good majority for the town. Maybe if towns is lucky, it will be 7vs3..
if you flip green we know exactly nothing except for the fact that you've pulled an emo here. It's not like harbs red because he went for you. If that'd true EVERYONE has to be red in here because everyone once accused someone (I guess) If you flip red we know why you did it.
On November 03 2011 22:16 hyshes wrote: I'm not retarded, and this aint stupid play either. It's the only play i got left to have a possible chance on a town win. I'm just kinda hoping it will open your eyes. I'm just offering good working material here. for that purpose, i'm willing to do a sacrifice here.
After my action here it will be 6towns vs 3 mafia (assuming mafia kills a townie next night), so still a good majority for the town. Maybe if towns is lucky, it will be 7vs3..
if you flip green we know exactly nothing except for the fact that you've pulled an emo here. It's not like harbs red because he went for you. If that'd true EVERYONE has to be red in here because everyone once accused someone (I guess) If you flip red we know why you did it.
On November 03 2011 22:16 hyshes wrote: I'm not retarded, and this aint stupid play either. It's the only play i got left to have a possible chance on a town win. I'm just kinda hoping it will open your eyes. I'm just offering good working material here. for that purpose, i'm willing to do a sacrifice here.
After my action here it will be 6towns vs 3 mafia (assuming mafia kills a townie next night), so still a good majority for the town. Maybe if towns is lucky, it will be 7vs3..
if you flip green we know exactly nothing except for the fact that you've pulled an emo here. It's not like harbs red because he went for you. If that'd true EVERYONE has to be red in here because everyone once accused someone (I guess) If you flip red we know why you did it.
No emo here, just not up for your shitty logic.
what does town actually gain flip green? fuck all what does mafia gain if you flip red? fuck all
it's your logic that's shitty here and whichever way you flip, its bad play
On November 03 2011 12:37 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: Drem, if you are still around, I would also like to know who are several people you think are likely to be town and why.
WHo i think are town (in no particular order), and would be genuinely surprised if they weren't:
Ciryandor - has been one of the main driving forces behind the SKrammen lynch. Although he was not the most active after day 1, almost everyone of his posts offered strong incite, and he provided evidence against everyone he accused. He's currently gunning for me yes, but i will admit i have not been the best at posting, and have not offered the greatest conviction.
Zanfada - I was suspicious of him on day 1, but that has since changed. I was nothing more than caught off guard by his eagerness to make a vote against someone. Since them he has given well thought out statements on who he thinks are scum, and his posts don't really look like scum posts. He doesn't post a lot, but his posts have always been to try and stir conversation, and he's constant in his convicitons.
HarbingerOfDoom - I had no feelings for or against you day 1. The only thing i observed was that you were one of the main proponents of the Lynch SKrammen group. Starting with day 2 though, on the other hand, you have definately been one of the most active people when it come to discussion, and are definately putting pressure on anyone who is suspicious even in the slightest.
The rest of the people, other than those i have already voiced opinions on as scum, i don't really have that much of a read on.
##unvote Chocolate ##vote hyshes
If hyshes is so eager to then we may as well grant him his wish. He was actively posting and trying to contibute, or at least look like he was contributing (the post accusing Ciry was out there, and Ciry is likely a major mafia target because he seems to be one of the more agressive townies). Additionally, the second a major case is brought against him he pretty much completely quits. That's either a townie who never gave a shit, or a mafia that panicked and couldn't think of a way to defend himself.
Well, shit. Lots of stuff happened here while I was going about my day. Firstly, I will not block a lynch. Secondly, I noted my suspicion of him earlier, and I will come back with that post I promised. (Yes, I'm a slow writer)
On November 03 2011 11:09 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: @Skrammen Since you reappeared, I would like to reassert my earlier request; If you value your life, please make a post of the following: 1) At least 2, preferably 3 people you think are scum 2) Explanations and some analysis of why you think they are scum 3) At least 2, preferably more, people you think are town, excluding yourself 4) Explanations of why you think they are town 5) What you think the goal of the risk.nuke shooting was
I'm going to reply to this quickly for now, and I will come back with a more thorough respons once I get my sleep. I've been busy all day and its getting late over here.
1) At this point I think atleast Drem is a scum. Im suspicious of Hyshes and chocolate, but Toad is still on my radar.
3) I think Bunneh is a townie. Ciry seems pro-town and I havnt made my mind up about the rest of them, but im about 50-50 on Zanfada and yourself.
5) I believe the biggest reason for getting rid of risk is to get either me or toad lynched today. If I get lynched and flip green, toad is very very suspicious. If toad gets lynched and flips green then that would put pressure on me and those who pushed toad the most.
2) I dont have much to add to my previous post where I laid out some of my thoughts and voted for Drem. But I thought that both hyshes and Drem were mafias, but Hyshes voted Drem earlier. Now, this could be a ploy or one of them is green. If we do lynch Hyshes and he flips green, I will look even closer at Drem.
As for Hyshes, I honestly dont have much to add to your thoughts regarding the matter. One thing is that he did not vote for the easy lynch, because being on the list when I flipped green would spell bad news for him. I think this is a pretty good scumtell. If he flips red we should pressure everyone else who did not vote for me hard, as there is likely to be scum among them. And I do not like one bit his defeatist attitude. If you are green and you do this, you are only hurting the town.
4) So far it seems to me that both Bunneh and Ciry are townies because they are both very pro-town. Stirring up discussions and the like. To be very honest - I have not looked as much from this angle, I've been pretty busy both defending myself and trying to discern who are scums.
So, unless hyshes makes a solid defence for himself I guess im with the bandwagon.
What in the... I cannot believe you are doing this to yourself hyshes, even in my drunken state (YEAH!); why you've made such an inane self-wagon on yourself. I'll read through each post since my last one when I'm more coherent and sober.
*I hate work, and it was a long weekend in the Philippines so I had a chance to be much more active on Day 1*
that unvote isn't chaning a thing. You still tried (don't know if you knew about the rule or not) and if we now just stop voting for you we will establish a game were everyone who's accused to be mafia can just vote for himself, unvote himself later on and therefore we got to unvote you too? That's just still not makeing sense at all.
On November 04 2011 02:41 Toadesstern wrote: that unvote isn't chaning a thing. You still tried (don't know if you knew about the rule or not) and if we now just stop voting for you we will establish a game were everyone who's accused to be mafia can just vote for himself, unvote himself later on and therefore we got to unvote you too? That's just still not makeing sense at all.
On November 03 2011 22:16 hyshes wrote: I'm not retarded, and this aint stupid play either. It's the only play i got left to have a possible chance on a town win. I'm just kinda hoping it will open your eyes. I'm just offering good working material here. for that purpose, i'm willing to do a sacrifice here.
After my action here it will be 6towns vs 3 mafia (assuming mafia kills a townie next night), so still a good majority for the town. Maybe if towns is lucky, it will be 7vs3..
Sacrificing yourself just to show you're green doesn't seem like it helps the town all that much. The reason being, IF you were to flip up green, then it drops to a 7/3. The mafia then get to ping someone else (right?), making it 6/3. At 6/3 it's going to be a lot harder for us to get a solid lynch on a scum.
If you throw yourself to the lions and turn out green, we're going to have real problems. If what you say is ACTUALLY true, don't sacrifice yourself, because in doing so you're basically sacrificing the town. This is why I think you MUST be red. You're right that you're not retarded, which is why the only possible option is that you're red.
Also in your other posts you refused to defend yourself against "retarded" logic (think that's the right quote, or the gist of it). The posts made against you are pretty sound logically, and your attitude to the accusation is entirely illogical.
On November 03 2011 22:16 hyshes wrote: I'm not retarded, and this aint stupid play either. It's the only play i got left to have a possible chance on a town win. I'm just kinda hoping it will open your eyes. I'm just offering good working material here. for that purpose, i'm willing to do a sacrifice here.
After my action here it will be 6towns vs 3 mafia (assuming mafia kills a townie next night), so still a good majority for the town. Maybe if towns is lucky, it will be 7vs3..
Sacrificing yourself just to show you're green doesn't seem like it helps the town all that much. The reason being, IF you were to flip up green, then it drops to a 7/3. The mafia then get to ping someone else (right?), making it 6/3. At 6/3 it's going to be a lot harder for us to get a solid lynch on a scum.
If you throw yourself to the lions and turn out green, we're going to have real problems. If what you say is ACTUALLY true, don't sacrifice yourself, because in doing so you're basically sacrificing the town. This is why I think you MUST be red. You're right that you're not retarded, which is why the only possible option is that you're red.
Also in your other posts you refused to defend yourself against "retarded" logic (think that's the right quote, or the gist of it). The posts made against you are pretty sound logically, and your attitude to the accusation is entirely illogical.
The retarted logic refers to toad's posts. HarbingerOfDoom's post does not make sense either, it's a wall of sh*t.
On November 03 2011 22:16 hyshes wrote: I'm not retarded, and this aint stupid play either. It's the only play i got left to have a possible chance on a town win. I'm just kinda hoping it will open your eyes. I'm just offering good working material here. for that purpose, i'm willing to do a sacrifice here.
After my action here it will be 6towns vs 3 mafia (assuming mafia kills a townie next night), so still a good majority for the town. Maybe if towns is lucky, it will be 7vs3..
Sacrificing yourself just to show you're green doesn't seem like it helps the town all that much. The reason being, IF you were to flip up green, then it drops to a 7/3. The mafia then get to ping someone else (right?), making it 6/3. At 6/3 it's going to be a lot harder for us to get a solid lynch on a scum.
If you throw yourself to the lions and turn out green, we're going to have real problems. If what you say is ACTUALLY true, don't sacrifice yourself, because in doing so you're basically sacrificing the town. This is why I think you MUST be red. You're right that you're not retarded, which is why the only possible option is that you're red.
Also in your other posts you refused to defend yourself against "retarded" logic (think that's the right quote, or the gist of it). The posts made against you are pretty sound logically, and your attitude to the accusation is entirely illogical.
The retarted logic refers to toad's posts. HarbingerOfDoom's post does not make sense either, it's a wall of sh*t.
If you think its a wall of shit perhaps you could point out its flaws rather than give in
On November 03 2011 19:38 hyshes wrote: Actually, for me it's kinda obvious who the 4 (3scum + 1 detective) persons are who have extra information. Obviously I'm not gonna post the 4 names, since otherwise the 3 scum will kill the detective next night. What i will do is try to find in my list of 4 a certain scum and post this with a analysis.
Since you seem to want to quit and are committing suicide basically I would like you to expand more on this. Cause right now you seem to be making emotional pleas to get us not to lynch you. Honestly you were on my more likely scum list but without basically giving up it is hard to think of you as anything but scum and you are trying not to give any more info before you die. Please If you are green give us all the reads you have, it is important for town. You say you have 4 good reads and I really would like to hear them.
On November 03 2011 00:04 hyshes wrote: I jus reread the whole thread and i'm going to post a hard statement here.
Ciryandor - Toadesstern - Drem903
These 3 are referring to each other all the time, without direct accusations. This leaves me to think that they don't want eachother lynched.. but wan to have a backup of posts that do kinda disconnect them. There is something really fishy between those 3. I'm willing to go on a vote on one of these three for sure.
I have been rereading the thread I and the only connection I have been seeing between these three is when Ciry and Toad talk about the game all three of us were in before this one.
Even with all this evidence against you (from HoD's post) and your FOS Ciry he is still voying for Drem, which you said was his scum buddy... It just doesn't add up, please help us not vote for you, tell us your reads. Giving up like this is bullshit so until you have a good arguement you have my vote.
##vote hyshes
but that can easily be changed when you post your reads because this bandwagon formed rather fast which means you are either town or getting thrown under the bus by your scum buddies.
this bandwagon did not form rather fast on itself. It did form rather fast because he voted for himself which is a no-go for a townie unless (maybe) if you already got a majority because that might be the only way to get out of it (although it's not allowed, has that rule been there for longer?^^).
He brought this on himself and we got little time left! Keep in mind it's 20:00 right now in europe and I have to wake up at 7:00 tomorrow so I won't stay until deadine for sure and I guess a lot of people are not going to do so as well. That's why I said to get your votes faster than on day1. We had a big problem focusing our votes because of that issue. If there's nothing that's changing my mind withing 2 hours I'm not going to change my vote because I have to go to bed at some time and we won't be able to get a lynch again. And unlik Zanfa I'm not saying that changing my mind is easy. Given the fact that there's little time left I don't want to risk a no lynch again while he looks scummy as hell just because a couple of guys already went to bed or are away or whatever.
@Hyshes On the off chance you are town, please realize this play you are making is atrocious for town. If you somehow flip green it does nothing to strengthen your arguments. Being green does not make someone correct. If you want to convince people of something, do not martyr yourself, explain yourself. I was not the only one suspicious of you, and you certainly weren't making any town lists, but there was nobody voting for you until I presented my case against you. That is how you change people's opinions. The only reason to go down without a fight is to take information with you to the grave, and that is something only scum could want.
I was expecting to have a hard fought case against the people pushing for Drem to be lynched, especially since until his most recent post I had a largely null-read on him. I expected worst case scenario we have a very hotly contested vote, one of Drem or Hyshes is lynched, flips green. But, we then have a lot of information to work with from their defenses, and how and what people said while making their cases. Hopefully it would have been enough to narrow it down to something like 3 out of a group of 4 are scum. Best case scenario, Hyshes or Drem is lynched, flips red. Obviously I have a bias toward preferring to have Hyshes be the scum, but I'll certainly take a correct lynch over my own convictions being correct. Ideally the process exposes at least one other scum. But...that's not what I got. I got Hyshes claiming to "sacrifice" himself for the sake of town, and his total defense is an emotional appeal and calling my case against him a "wall of shit". I think at this point it is clear that he is either 1) Scum 2) Town playing in a way that is highly beneficial to scum. Since 2 is against the rule "play to win", I am stuck with my previous conclusion that he is scum.
@Hyshes One other thing, if you are town (which I don't believe in the slightest), you are also granting scum probably their top wish for a lynch, a guilt-free bandwagon to hop on that gets a townie killed.
@HoD that was my same conclusion, he wants to die without giving away any more info...
He is from EU so he might as toad brought up be asleep now
Also it looks like hackle is going to be mod killed (I think he is town but that is of no help to anyone). He has been posting on other parts of tl which leads me to believe he gave up.
On November 04 2011 04:26 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: [...] Since 2 is against the rule "play to win", I am stuck with my previous conclusion that he is scum.
I thought of that as well but I did not want to say it because if that would be gm's game he would have already stepped in this game yelling something like "when this game is over I will be handing out bans like candy". Same thing happened last game a bit worse :D
we got 7 votes on hyshes right now. IF hyshe is red I guess we got 1 or even 2 mafias on him as well to protect themselves. I'd like to see another guy voting for him to make it an 8. That way mafia can't safe him. 6 is the magic number with 11 people alive.
On November 04 2011 06:11 Toadesstern wrote: we got 7 votes on hyshes right now. IF hyshe is red I guess we got 1 or even 2 mafias on him as well to protect themselves. I'd like to see another guy voting for him to make it an 8. That way mafia can't safe him. 6 is the magic number with 11 people alive.
That's toad's shitty logic.
If i'm red and my implied 2 scumbuddies back out of the vote, that would be awesome for the town. Ok, you failed at killing 1 scum, but you have certainly identified 3 :p Your logic makes no sense
On November 04 2011 06:33 Toadesstern wrote: there we go finally an answer that is not just ignoring everything someone said without explaining why. Now why didn't you do so in the first place?
Nahh, this shitty logic was easy to explain in a few lines. The rest of your shitty logic would take me too long. And i'm not even good at explaining things.
why should we if you don't explain it? It could be anything and the point here is to try and guess who's mafia out of what people say or much more what they don't say. It's not about a bunch of people saying "kill X" without explanation and the party who got more luck wins.
You have four hours remaining in the day. hyshes currently holds the majority. Please notify myself or erandorr if you notice a mistake. hacklebeast and Chocolate have yet to vote.
On November 04 2011 07:02 Toadesstern wrote: why should we if you don't explain it? It could be anything and the point here is to try and guess who's mafia out of what people say or much more what they don't say. It's not about a bunch of people saying "kill X" without explanation and the party who got more luck wins.
On November 04 2011 07:02 Toadesstern wrote: why should we if you don't explain it? It could be anything and the point here is to try and guess who's mafia out of what people say or much more what they don't say. It's not about a bunch of people saying "kill X" without explanation and the party who got more luck wins.
I'll rephrase that.
Not if everyone shared the same logic as me.
ok that's it for me. I tried talking to you, you kept answering in phrases that got no content, I gave you an easy one to go with, you finally started explaining and yet you still refuse to explain something else. That's just not what a townie would do no matter what. I'm going to bed now...
Also about that shitty logic, well I don't know I'm doing math at university so yeah I got that attitude that I don't believe in stuff unless it's got a decent explanation or it's proofen somehow because no matter if it's right or wrong the statement got no value if we don't know if that's just a lucky hit or the guy said that because of something else because again: Doing mistakes is not a scum tell as long as they're not on purpose so we have to know. You however refuse to give us that information.
On November 04 2011 07:02 Toadesstern wrote: why should we if you don't explain it? It could be anything and the point here is to try and guess who's mafia out of what people say or much more what they don't say. It's not about a bunch of people saying "kill X" without explanation and the party who got more luck wins.
I'll rephrase that.
Not if everyone shared the same logic as me.
ok that's it for me. I tried talking to you, you kept answering in phrases that got no content, I gave you an easy one to go with, you finally started explaining and yet you still refuse to explain something else. That's just not what a townie would do no matter what. I'm going to bed now...
Also about that shitty logic, well I don't know I'm doing math at university so yeah I got that attitude that I don't believe in stuff unless it's got a decent explanation or it's proofen somehow because no matter if it's right or wrong the statement got no value if we don't know if that's just a lucky hit or the guy said that because of something else because again: Doing mistakes is not a scum tell as long as they're not on purpose so we have to know. You however refuse to give us that information.
Seems you are wrong in that.
In what field of maths are you? I'm doing civil engineer but i'm taking some extra math classes on the side, mostly in the field of linear algebra
Then there is Ciryandor, he defended me and my baseless attack on someone. The only time I usually am defended is when scum are trying to buddy up with me. Or since he has played a few games he is just trying to let newbies know what I was doing. Still FOS for now.
Just to clear things up since you brought that statement last game too. Remember my summary last game? I defended you as well and said that I'm pretty sure you're town. Yeah I was a dt but I never checked you since I checked all 3 reds and still knew you where town. I just wanted to tell the other guy so because he might not find out himself. You told me that looks like scum too and I just got to disagree here. Right now I think you posting little is normal because I saw the last game while a few think it's scummy. A couple guys think I made a scummy post by telling dts not to look like dts and ciry said he doesn't think so, which is a defence for me as well and I haven't got something scummy from him until now. So I got to say that logic is flawed :p
I still can't believe how that one guy thought I meant to make dts stand out of the crowd, looks a bit strange as if he wants to get town on someone, but that's just my opinion right now and I got to check what he posts the next couple days :p
Ok and now I read that thing from chocolate as well. I want you to explain that. Why is it a fos on ciry. I could understand a fos on zanfa although I don't believe it's strange since it totally fits in his style. Well and ciry is the only guy who started a real discussion. Everyone spammed a bit to get something going at all an he went for real talks, like "explain your thoughts" and stuff and from what I see it looks like he is trying to get people to make quality posts rather than spam. Totally fits in his style as well. Go ahead, blame me for defending, which I still think is wrong at this point, but I want your explanation on this. We obviously got very little right now but given what we have there's definitly people around looking more scummy.
I've marked a bit in red. Why the hell would you refer to another game? It's not because you were town in that one, you are in this one.
On October 31 2011 08:26 Toadesstern wrote: Ok I still would like chocolate to explain why he got a fos on ciry. It might be right (I don't think we got a reason to think so but I won't say it's wrong on day 1 without information ) but if I had to make a list of people from 1 to 12 where 1 is the guy I think is the most likely to be town and 12 the guy most likely to be mafia in my opinion I'd place ciry somewhere in those top 50% spots. I still think that this is strange. The only reason behind this, as far as I understood it, was ciry "defending" zanfa ?
Also, keep in mind getting agressive is kind of a town tell. At least that's what happens to me. Just imagine you post something you think is ok or good, someone quotes it and makes it look like you're scum although you said something totally different, or at least wanted to do so. In that situation I WOULD probably be pissed. At least that's part of the "paranoid-answer" I did on page 9 when you guys asked me about the my post about dt or medics. I just did not think someone could interpretate it that way and thought it's clear and therefore I don't have to explain it. Turned out I was wrong. To sum it up: It might be something but I think it's more of a human nature thing getting into him. Let's face it, if someone accuses you to be mafia and you know yourself you're not the first thing you think is wtf is up with you dude, just reread what I posted. Also he did the exact same thing in the last game. He voted on day1 for me and switched later on his vote and only tried to make me talking.
I think those people desperatly trying to point at someone telling us to vote for those guys look way more scummy right now, which is why I still want that explanation from choc.
Thats an easy statement to try to convince people you are town. But its well hidden in a huge wall of text, so it does not stand out. Actually good play, but i found it.
On October 31 2011 09:08 Toadesstern wrote: Oh and a final note about all those fos things. I still think we should go for a lurker on day-1 unless we got something that sounds scummy and until now I don't think we got something. If we lynch someone who's lurking we got a decent chance of hitting a mafia. Obiously not every mafia style involves lurking.
But the two most important parts are (one already mentioned earlier): We force mafia into talking. That's not bad for mafia because of talking but because of talking a lot means a lot of chances of slipping. That's exactly what we want. The more mafia talks, the more likely we're to find something decent out of an analysis. Especially post death. For those who are reading the thread of the last game, take a look at my last post (for those who don't want to read the whole thing just read that one post): Klick me! Just take a look at my analysis. We had 1 guy who made a total of 2 (!) posts and thats all and those other 2 guys made pretty much no posts, as well and STILL we got a decent analysis out of me, not because of what they said but because of what dead, confirmed mafia said (pretty much everything I said about zanfas is stuff from dead mafias except for his one analysis). Just as an example how important this is. That way I at least knew zanfas was 99% town last game.
A second point would be our town situation. Of course lynching a mafia is what we want but let's think about what happens if we turn out to lynch a town. If we end up killing a lurking town that's bad because we ended up killing a townie instead of a mafia but killing an active townie is just really bad because killing a townie sucks and on top of that we're destroying townsituation by killing those guys posting. At least as long as it's out of the blue like now.
Nice idea.. select a lurker to get a free kill as mafia. And again, the refer to another game where he was town.
On October 31 2011 17:31 Toadesstern wrote: Times mentioned in this thread from hosts are in TL-time I guess? So saying day will end 03:00 means 3:00 tl.time right? Since there's nothing else I'm guessing so but would like to get a yes on that
Also, I'm voting for chocolate. I still think it's a bit strange but I don't like that fosing around like a mad man. Could have been someone else who did so. He just turned out to attack me and since I know I'm not mafia that does sound a bit strange to me :p I'm at university right now, will be back in 4 hours so maybe we got something out of this when I'm back. ##Vote Chocolate
Trying to get an easy hit on a townie without proper argument.
On November 01 2011 00:53 Toadesstern wrote: sadly noone made a statement about my vote ;( I actually did not want to vote for chocolate but I'd ve loved to see those reactions from people about that who are already suspicios. first of all
Unvote## Chocolate
What do you people think about hyshes and risk? Risk is the one I'd like to see make a couple posts since he basicly said nothing and I don't know anything about him. While hyshes... I don't know, could be anything :p
On November 01 2011 02:29 Toadesstern wrote: Ok I'm going with skrammen as well, we need to get a lynch and although I would have liked to get someone else I think going after him is fine, too. ##vote Skrammen
Just to get this clear since at least I did not know last game: It's not a simple majority vote, we need 7 people to vote on someone or it's a no-lynch. Having 4 votes on someone and 8 votes spread out is not going to get the guy with 4 votes lynched.
Ofc he's also a fine target for you. You don't care wich townie dies.
On November 02 2011 02:03 Toadesstern wrote: the problem with 3 is that it would mean that we're not able to get more than 3 votes focussed on someone and I think that is very unlikely because that's 6 (!) guys who are spreading votes. Not the fact that town would be screwed if 3 (pretty much the same as 2) turns out to be true is the thing that makes it the easiest / most likely explanation. I don't know how you guys approach this game but I figured people know that we need to lynch people to get something going.
I got to add that I probably forgot one solution. Maybe people didn't read the first post in this thread carefully and did not read my post about it pointing it out again: This game has no simple majority rule. Having 6 votes on Skrammen was not enough to get him lynched although he was the one with the most votes on the list. If there's a couple of people who did not know that for whatever reason, it would be another explanation for why we're not even able to lynch a townie (talking about scenario 2 and 3) because they thought 6 on Skrammen is already enough to get them lynched and no need to change votes.
This has to be the biggest tell of all. Throwing numbers that mean nothing. There is no reason to assume that these 6 vote don't include the scums. It was day1 afterall.
##vote hyshes While yeah I agree toad is a little fishy it is in the town's best interest to get a lynch on day one because if they get a mafia it's easy to just pick out the people that defended him. Of course the plan can back fire but the reward is so great... And the same goes for today. If you flip red, then w00t we will probably win. If you flip green, then we can narrow down the mafia to the people that voted for you. The reason I'm picking on you is 1) you have the most votes and 2) you seem a little fishy, and that whole voting for yourself business was weird.
Hyshes, you can blame me some, but the rest of the blame has to fall on you and nobody else. It isn't shitty logic to lynch the guy who refuses to defend himself or explain any of his convictions. With ONE vote on you (mine), you posted:
Ok guys i got the solution. After all it's a team game.
Lynch me
red: wohoo! scum kill green/blue: please promise me that you will lynch the obvious ones
Then, when you have a total of 2 votes on you, still putting you behind Drem in number of votes, you post this and seal your fate:
##unvote drem ##vote hyshes
I asked you multiple times to explain your case, and your first real explanation came 3 hours before the deadline, after your stupid martyrdom play, and too late to save you. Had you actually posted anything like that earlier on instead of your "self-sacrifice" there is a decent chance Drem would have been the one hanging in your place. I looked at the post history of both of you, figuring one of you was likely scum, and I came out with the conclusion that there was a stronger case for you than for Drem. You could have defended yourself. You could have explained yourself. Drem could have slipped up if the pressure stayed on him. At the very least we would have had a controversial vote where scum actually had to make a choice. As it is, they got the easy wagon to hop on. If you're going to play, play to win ffs. I seriously hope you get a ban for not playing toward your win condition.
To the rest of you, I apologize. I obviously could not have predicted the shitstorm that my accusation would cause, and realize this now drastically decreases our chances of winning. Not only did we get a mislynch, but we got one that produces almost no information and it killed nearly all other discussion from the time of my post first accusing Hyshes until now. The only way this could have gone any worse for us is if we also lost townies to mod-kills, and depending on what Hackle is (was?) we still might lose one.
I'm going to bed now, but I'll do my best to see what I can figure out from this mess when I return :-/
Then there is Ciryandor, he defended me and my baseless attack on someone. The only time I usually am defended is when scum are trying to buddy up with me. Or since he has played a few games he is just trying to let newbies know what I was doing. Still FOS for now.
Just to clear things up since you brought that statement last game too. Remember my summary last game? I defended you as well and said that I'm pretty sure you're town. Yeah I was a dt but I never checked you since I checked all 3 reds and still knew you where town. I just wanted to tell the other guy so because he might not find out himself. You told me that looks like scum too and I just got to disagree here. Right now I think you posting little is normal because I saw the last game while a few think it's scummy. A couple guys think I made a scummy post by telling dts not to look like dts and ciry said he doesn't think so, which is a defence for me as well and I haven't got something scummy from him until now. So I got to say that logic is flawed :p
I still can't believe how that one guy thought I meant to make dts stand out of the crowd, looks a bit strange as if he wants to get town on someone, but that's just my opinion right now and I got to check what he posts the next couple days :p
Ok and now I read that thing from chocolate as well. I want you to explain that. Why is it a fos on ciry. I could understand a fos on zanfa although I don't believe it's strange since it totally fits in his style. Well and ciry is the only guy who started a real discussion. Everyone spammed a bit to get something going at all an he went for real talks, like "explain your thoughts" and stuff and from what I see it looks like he is trying to get people to make quality posts rather than spam. Totally fits in his style as well. Go ahead, blame me for defending, which I still think is wrong at this point, but I want your explanation on this. We obviously got very little right now but given what we have there's definitly people around looking more scummy.
I've marked a bit in red. Why the hell would you refer to another game? It's not because you were town in that one, you are in this one.
On October 31 2011 08:26 Toadesstern wrote: Ok I still would like chocolate to explain why he got a fos on ciry. It might be right (I don't think we got a reason to think so but I won't say it's wrong on day 1 without information ) but if I had to make a list of people from 1 to 12 where 1 is the guy I think is the most likely to be town and 12 the guy most likely to be mafia in my opinion I'd place ciry somewhere in those top 50% spots. I still think that this is strange. The only reason behind this, as far as I understood it, was ciry "defending" zanfa ?
Also, keep in mind getting agressive is kind of a town tell. At least that's what happens to me. Just imagine you post something you think is ok or good, someone quotes it and makes it look like you're scum although you said something totally different, or at least wanted to do so. In that situation I WOULD probably be pissed. At least that's part of the "paranoid-answer" I did on page 9 when you guys asked me about the my post about dt or medics. I just did not think someone could interpretate it that way and thought it's clear and therefore I don't have to explain it. Turned out I was wrong. To sum it up: It might be something but I think it's more of a human nature thing getting into him. Let's face it, if someone accuses you to be mafia and you know yourself you're not the first thing you think is wtf is up with you dude, just reread what I posted. Also he did the exact same thing in the last game. He voted on day1 for me and switched later on his vote and only tried to make me talking.
I think those people desperatly trying to point at someone telling us to vote for those guys look way more scummy right now, which is why I still want that explanation from choc.
Thats an easy statement to try to convince people you are town. But its well hidden in a huge wall of text, so it does not stand out. Actually good play, but i found it.
On October 31 2011 09:08 Toadesstern wrote: Oh and a final note about all those fos things. I still think we should go for a lurker on day-1 unless we got something that sounds scummy and until now I don't think we got something. If we lynch someone who's lurking we got a decent chance of hitting a mafia. Obiously not every mafia style involves lurking.
But the two most important parts are (one already mentioned earlier): We force mafia into talking. That's not bad for mafia because of talking but because of talking a lot means a lot of chances of slipping. That's exactly what we want. The more mafia talks, the more likely we're to find something decent out of an analysis. Especially post death. For those who are reading the thread of the last game, take a look at my last post (for those who don't want to read the whole thing just read that one post): Klick me! Just take a look at my analysis. We had 1 guy who made a total of 2 (!) posts and thats all and those other 2 guys made pretty much no posts, as well and STILL we got a decent analysis out of me, not because of what they said but because of what dead, confirmed mafia said (pretty much everything I said about zanfas is stuff from dead mafias except for his one analysis). Just as an example how important this is. That way I at least knew zanfas was 99% town last game.
A second point would be our town situation. Of course lynching a mafia is what we want but let's think about what happens if we turn out to lynch a town. If we end up killing a lurking town that's bad because we ended up killing a townie instead of a mafia but killing an active townie is just really bad because killing a townie sucks and on top of that we're destroying townsituation by killing those guys posting. At least as long as it's out of the blue like now.
Nice idea.. select a lurker to get a free kill as mafia. And again, the refer to another game where he was town.
On October 31 2011 17:31 Toadesstern wrote: Times mentioned in this thread from hosts are in TL-time I guess? So saying day will end 03:00 means 3:00 tl.time right? Since there's nothing else I'm guessing so but would like to get a yes on that
Also, I'm voting for chocolate. I still think it's a bit strange but I don't like that fosing around like a mad man. Could have been someone else who did so. He just turned out to attack me and since I know I'm not mafia that does sound a bit strange to me :p I'm at university right now, will be back in 4 hours so maybe we got something out of this when I'm back. ##Vote Chocolate
Trying to get an easy hit on a townie without proper argument.
On November 01 2011 00:53 Toadesstern wrote: sadly noone made a statement about my vote ;( I actually did not want to vote for chocolate but I'd ve loved to see those reactions from people about that who are already suspicios. first of all
Unvote## Chocolate
What do you people think about hyshes and risk? Risk is the one I'd like to see make a couple posts since he basicly said nothing and I don't know anything about him. While hyshes... I don't know, could be anything :p
On November 01 2011 02:29 Toadesstern wrote: Ok I'm going with skrammen as well, we need to get a lynch and although I would have liked to get someone else I think going after him is fine, too. ##vote Skrammen
Just to get this clear since at least I did not know last game: It's not a simple majority vote, we need 7 people to vote on someone or it's a no-lynch. Having 4 votes on someone and 8 votes spread out is not going to get the guy with 4 votes lynched.
Ofc he's also a fine target for you. You don't care wich townie dies.
On November 02 2011 02:03 Toadesstern wrote: the problem with 3 is that it would mean that we're not able to get more than 3 votes focussed on someone and I think that is very unlikely because that's 6 (!) guys who are spreading votes. Not the fact that town would be screwed if 3 (pretty much the same as 2) turns out to be true is the thing that makes it the easiest / most likely explanation. I don't know how you guys approach this game but I figured people know that we need to lynch people to get something going.
I got to add that I probably forgot one solution. Maybe people didn't read the first post in this thread carefully and did not read my post about it pointing it out again: This game has no simple majority rule. Having 6 votes on Skrammen was not enough to get him lynched although he was the one with the most votes on the list. If there's a couple of people who did not know that for whatever reason, it would be another explanation for why we're not even able to lynch a townie (talking about scenario 2 and 3) because they thought 6 on Skrammen is already enough to get them lynched and no need to change votes.
This has to be the biggest tell of all. Throwing numbers that mean nothing. There is no reason to assume that these 6 vote don't include the scums. It was day1 afterall.
I assume you can find the rest yourself.
1) Because he said "everyone trying to befriend me got to be mafia". He said the same thing last game and it was wrong. I am not only showing him why this is wrong but also giving him an example of his flawed logic. That is why i mentioned the last game. Since he did not say what he thinks about the red line I'm not sure what he dislikes there. I just said that I'm gettin pissed if people think I'm scum although I'm town. Is that weird?
2) Well yeah. That's the point of this game after all. I was being targeted so I have to convince people I'm town in both scenarios: If I'm green I want to prevent a 100% townie lynch and want to lynch someone else, If I'm red I don't want to be lynched because I'm red.
3) Mafias wants to lurk. If they're able to lurk without being called out that's perfect for them because they can't make scumslips in the first place because they're not even talking. So it's about three major things: - I think it's more likely some mafias are amongst lurkers in a newb-game, also it's not mandatory - We makeing a statement "we don't want lurkers in here, start talking" which is bad for mafa. - lynching a lurker isn't that bad if he turned out to be green as lynching an active green player
4) That without context. Go ahead and search the thread. I stated that I never wanted to lynch choc, I just voted for him to get some information on hyshes and risk and people I was suspicious of. Like if they're following me or if they're trying to convice people to vote for choc for no reason and so on.
5) Yeah again, I'm trying to defend myself and build a case without going into emo-mode and just ragequit. So sure I'm trying to get people off of me.
6) Given how risk and you are playing town I'am maybe willing to believe that town isn't able to focus more than 3 votes on a guy and again we only got that lynch on you because mafia was helping. But I wasn't believing it at that point in time.
To sum it up, imo we got kind of a mod-kill. No information here as he (willingly?) played anti-town by refusing to give us information and we lynched him for playing anti-town. I can't blame harb for going after him because if that's not allowed in the first place we won't find a mafia at all. Also I can't blame people on makeing pressure or jumping on the wagon once he pulled that emo. It's just like a modkill... The major point here is that we just can't people allow to unvote someone because the suspicious guy voted for himself. If we start with that behavior we can't lynch anyone because they will just not defend themselves, they will completly ignore the issue, vote for themselves and people have to withdraw their votes because of that. Therefore townsituation is screwed because we'd be a bunch of people starring at each without saying a word because ignoring the blame and voting yourself will be just fine as a defence.
Maybe HoD was wrong pushing this, maybe we were wrong following suit, but it was definitly wrong giving in and not making any sort of defense until way late.
Let's see if we can garner any information from the voting from our no-lynch and our somehow even more useless lynching. Removing the dead players from the list, we have this as the voting from day 1: Hacklebeast Zanfada
This represents 7 town votes and 3 scum votes. Now, assuming scum wouldn't risk a chance of lynching another scum, this means we either had 6 of the 7 votes from surviving townies on Skrammen, or Skrammen is clean and had one or more scum votes for him. I think 1 or 2 scum votes on him is the most likely, as putting all 3 on him would have been incredibly risky play.
From our day 2 voting, all we know is Ciry didn't make it back in time to do anything other than leave his vote on Drem, but I think we can safely eliminate the possibility that Ciry and Drem are both mafia, as Hyshes tried to suggest.
Not much info, but perhaps worth considering.
As for some other matters: Bunneh: I'm going to keep pestering you until you do post that analysis of me. Empty promises of analysis won't fly on my watch. Chocolate:
Tomorrow evening I will try to compile a list of who everyone has accused/fosd to make it easier for us to identify who the mafia are, or at least who is ignoring who.
Let's see it. Additionally, some actual analysis out of you would be most appreciated. What are your current scum reads? You said you thought Drem was almost certainly mafia but didn't vote for him. After the Hyshes ordeal, you vote for him with this as your explanation:
The reason I'm picking on you is 1) you have the most votes and 2) you seem a little fishy, and that whole voting for yourself business was weird.
I don't think I need to tell you that 1) There's a bandwagon on you and 2) You seem a bit suspicious isn't a great basis for a vote if that's really all you had against him.
@xsksc Yes, that lynch gave us about as little info as possible, but that doesn't mean we should shut up and waste 24 hours of scum-hunting time. We have more to discuss now then we did when the game first started, and back then your opinion on that matter seemed a bit different:
Please don't be afraid to post guys, if town is inactive it only helps scum lurk and get away with killing us all off.
We do have to lynch someone today so please keep posting people!
Here, I'll help you out and give you something to discuss.
I think my scum list at the moment would be something like this
1) Toad OR Skrammen
2) Drem
3) Hyshes or some random inactive like Hackle
This list is definitely not set in stone, I only recently added drem to it and hyshes could probably be replaced by a lot of people I haven't properly looked at yet.
Harbringers case is good, but it doesn't make me 100% feel hes scum.
Will update when I've finished re-reading/filtering.
Did you ever go back through and re-read/filter? If yes, did anything change? If not, why didn't you? What's your updated list now? Any changes besides removing Hyshes?
I didn't mean we shouldn't be talking, I just meant this lynch has given us almost nothing new to discuss.
As for my updated list, I still think either toad or skrammen is red. They can't BOTH be red because they went at each other pretty aggressively. Still got FOS on drem. I dont know who I'd replace hyshes with right now, I had my suspicions of zanfada day 1, so possibly him. I guess it depends who gets shot next, like I said, this lynch gives us almost nothing to work with :/
Posts longer than 1 sentence made by people currently in the game, other than me, in the past 22 hours: 3 They are chocolate's voting post, toad's post lynch summary, and xsksc answering my questions.
Do I have to individually ask you all questions to keep this thread from dying and to keep discussion going? If you're paying attention to the thread at all, and you want to help town win, CONTRIBUTE SOMETHING.
Personally, I still don't have much of a read on Drem other than he is playing the newbie card pretty hard, nor do I have much on xsksc, chocolate, or, of course, hackle.
well the problem for me is that I'm pretty much back to a null read... It could be anything and whats most terrifying ist the fact that mafia probably voted for skrammen on day1. We got risk and hyshes killed and both were not voting for skrammen. However if I look at that voting list and just look at who voted for skrammen I'd say everyone but choc looks amazingly town to me. And choc isn't looking scummy to me, he's just a 0-read for me. I'm just shocked hyshes did turn out green I guess. I really though he's 99% mafia...
On October 31 2011 01:24 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: I don't see how toad telling people to be active even if they are blues is suspicious, it isn't like he said "dt's and medics should role-claim in the thread" or anything. He, like most of us, is simply trying to encourage activity from everyone. It also helps make it clear that you must contribute to scum-hunting as a blue if you don't want to be mistaken for scum yourself.
And just to call someone out a bit, I believe Skrammen has actually said the least of anyone so far, with a total contribution of:
Early thread, a defense of Toad, and poke at SKrammen. The few posts following this show a not-quite-but-kindof defense of the initial accusations at Toad, and continue aggression on SKrammen.
Following them, a move onto Drem with some reasonable arguments:
On November 02 2011 03:52 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: So while reviewing the voting and the resulting no-lynch, I noticed something very interesting from Drem:
So, the people i'm currently very suspicious of are: SKrammen and Zanfada. When i get more time to really look at everyone's posts this might change, but it's just those 2 for now.
##vote Zanfada
If you were very suspicious of both of them, why would you leave your vote on Zanfada? At the time of your voting, you had the option to make it 2 votes for Zanfada, or 4 votes for Skrammen. If your goal was to get scum lynched, and you were very suspicious of Skrammen, why place your vote in a way that greatly increases the odds of a no-lynch rather than nearly guaranteeing a lynch on Skrammen?
I would also like a bit more from hyshes on why he voted Zanfada, considering his voting post was the following:
I don't watn to be modkilled, so i'm going to cast a vote following my feeling here.
##vote Zanfada
Do you still think he is scum? Were you around at all after more votes were in? If so, what was your reasoning for leaving your vote on Zanfada, rather than switching it to Toad? Since the failed lynch you seem to be focusing more on Toad, but haven't really made a committal statement yet, do you believe Toad to be scum?
I understand he may very well have been the person you were most suspicious of, but in the very post you used to place that vote you said you were very suspicious of Skrammen. My question was if you thought both were likely to be scum at the time, why would you vote in a manner that makes it less likely that either of them would get lynched? It isn't like you made an effort in your post to get people to switch from Skrammen to Zanfada to get him lynched instead, you simply said they were both very suspicious and placed your vote.
Let's spell it out a bit: Suppose you think A and B are scummy. You think A is 60% to be scum, B is 80% to be scum. If you vote A, he will almost surely be lynched. If you vote B, there is a small chance A will be lynched, no chance B will be lynched, a large chance nobody will be lynched. How does the second choice ever make sense, unless you think A is likely to be town?
I see nothing particularly wrong with these posts actually. Or anything so far. The posts have reasoned arguments, backed up by relevent posts.
The next period doesn't need a quote tunnel. After risk turned up dead, there's a couple of extremely strong posts trying to assess who would want risk dead. Of biggest note to me at that time, was when I threw up suspicion purely because you were the only other person risk implicated that wasn't Toad, you gave a good honest reply that showed both your positive posts and the ones that could implicate, you in an attempt to help what I was looking for. You were right that you were a potential benefactor from his death, but at the same time so were both Toad and Skrammen, far more so than you. A hit might have been a "subtle" one coming from yourself, but far more likely that it was from elsewhere either looking to implicate one of the 2 of them, or actually from one of the 2 of them.
xsksc, you've been pretty quiet, would you mind posting some of your thoughts/analysis? I pretty much have a null read on you currently.
Ciryandor, I would also like to hear what your current thoughts are when you get the chance. You've posted today, but none of your usual analysis yet.
@Skrammen Since you reappeared, I would like to reassert my earlier request; If you value your life, please make a post of the following: 1) At least 2, preferably 3 people you think are scum 2) Explanations and some analysis of why you think they are scum 3) At least 2, preferably more, people you think are town, excluding yourself 4) Explanations of why you think they are town 5) What you think the goal of the risk.nuke shooting was
@hyshes Have you reconsidered your 3 scum picks yet? If Ciry and Drem are both scum, why would Ciry now be voting for and bringing intense scrutiny to Drem? Do you honestly think that mafia would be bussing one of their players on day 2?
Drem, if you are still around, I would also like to know who are several people you think are likely to be town and why.
These to me are very townie signs. It's like 6 posts or so in a row which are actively asking others questions, and trying to find out information. Someone that active in looking for information is someone committed to finding something out. The only 2 options are "Who are scum?" or "Who are blues so I can kill them?". The tone of the posts though strike me more as the first one.
These are followed by the long post that first implicated hyshes. This is where it gets tricky for me. That post has perfect reasoning in it. After reading it, I had a similar sentiment that I hadn't shared about hyshes previously. And that's about when this whole game went tits up.
Now that final direct assault on hyshes came after several lines of questioning, and most other people giving what appear to be satisfactory responses, so the aggression towards hyshes would not be unwarranted. His reaction certainly didn't help us, and after your original attack and his responses to it I was 100% certain he was scum as well. It's hard to express in words though how I don't understand his reasoning behind his actions. I DON'T think that Harbinger's original attack was unwarranted or unfounded though, so I don't read it as scum attacking someone for a lynch. That would be too obvious.
My conclusion on Harbinger for the time being is Townie. Sorry it took so long to post this by the way, I know I missed when I insisted I'd have posted it by.
So assuming I rule out Harbinger for the time being, we have to go back on what we had prior to the hyshes thing.
In my mind it continues to be as follows:
1) Skrammen or Toad. Only 1, but almost certainly one. Otherwise I'll be a monkey's uncle and entirely thrown through a loop.
2) Drem. More to come on that, but he's been semi-active, and some dodgy posts.
3) No idea. Perhaps Chocolate? I'd have thought possibly hackle, but my real guess is that he was a townie who just lost interest from the start. I don't have a real lead on a 3rd at the moment though. I'd like to hear more from xkxdkskd though.
We can’t keep blaming hyshes for his very odd town play and since I am at the top of a few people’s town lists I figure I have a good chance at getting killed tonight.
People I think are town HoD Ciry
People I like are mafia or seem scumish to me Toad – Every town that has died has problems him, it is hard to believe it is a coincidence. Defending the hyshes bandwagon Drem – for day 1 stupidness, but looking at his day 2 stuff I am getting more of a town vibe, still on my watch list though, the hysh bandwagon saved his life imo something to look into Skram – Still on my watch list from day one, he froze up underpreassure on day 1 and night 1. He didn’t really start posting again till the hysh bandwagon
That being said these 3 as mafia makes no fucking sense to me and I made this list. I would like to hear more from chocolate IMABUNNEH, I just don’t have a good read on either of you two.
actually ciry is fallen more and more to the bottom of my list. I know he said he got no time but still, it's just not a single post. Not even an update or whatever. Choc is still a 0-read for me and I don't know what to think about him. However the fact that risk and hyshes both did not vote for skrammen makes me think there's probably a bunch of mafia (that's right, at least 2!) on skrammen.
also I don't joke with that monkey's uncle thingie. I'm glad I did not say that when we lynched hyshes 8(
with hyshes flipping green, and hackle being more or less gone that doesn't really leave us with a lot of suspects other than myself, and toad (who hyshes was pushing for until he died). I still hold a FoS on chocolate, for the same reasons outlined earlier, and none of the people who i posted to be town have really done anything to warrant a change of opinion.
There really doesn't seem to be a lot to discuss at the moment.
Hey guys, good morning from here. I've got a few minutes with my thoughts here, but I'm really pressed for time today; I'm going to be busy for the next 12 hours but after sleeping it off I can catch up with whatever's happening on Day 3 if I'm still going to be alive.
As it stands, I'll start off with some thoughts on the guys who were already pushed for over the last two days:
Skrammen has managed to escape scrutiny after nearly getting lynched, but being away from the spotlight has not helped his posting much:
If you decide to lynch me anyway, and I do flip green, there's a good chance all of the scum will be among those who are most adamant about lynching me. If I flip red, then risk and bunneh got some 'splaining to do.
This last statement is really odd, If you are town then there is no reason to bring it up. This seems like a scum slip to me but why say you might be red if you are scum...
can you comment on this skram, the choice of words is still bothering me.
Just stating the obvious. Why say I might red if I am scum? Well, if I was, would I tell you? Are you desperatly trying to find a reason to get me lynched, again?
What about you. So far, the only thing you have done is come in, instigate somthing on someone else, defend yourself when you got under pressure only to disappear again. And here you are again.
He's done the same thing as well, try to start suspicion on Zanfada on Night 1, hoping someone picks it up Day 2 and gets him as a vote-leader; then:
On November 03 2011 10:37 Skrammen wrote: @Toadsstern
The reason for this is that at that point, bunneh and risk were defending me, and thus me flipping would be bad news for them. Perhaps pretty redundant but still true.
So lets think about it. Risk turned out to be green. If I were a red, how would I benefit from his death? He blocked my lynch, and he seemed pretty adamant about my affiliations. Now that he's gone it might reinforce any suspicions you have of me or toad, which is exactly what the scum wants, they want either of us lynched on day 2.
Your vote for Drem earlier was a vote for the sake of voting, nothing solid to go on. Your unvote was also on very poor grounds.
What I do think of this situation is that me and toad are just two townies pointing fingers at each other. I've not removed you from my list of people to look at, but at this point in time, I do not think you are a scum. You're pointing fingers at basically everyone in this game, which is either poor mafia play or good townie play.
At this point its obvious that either one of us is a scum, or none of us.
I do not think there would be more than 1 mafia voting for me. Risk voted Toadsstern and we know he turned out to be town. Hacklebeast also voted for him, and so did bunneh. But what if we consider hyshes and drem's vote on Zanfada to be a safe-vote, so to speak? Or do you think this is very poor mafia play? At this point im not sure, but im pointing my finger on drem. + Show Spoiler +
the people i've accused genuinely accused: Zanfada (not great reasoning, but it was only my first day, and he just seemed suspicious), SKrammen, YOU, hackle, and Toad.
If we say that he would not accuse a fellow mafia, there is stil chocolate, bunneh, hyshes, ciry, xskcx and HoD left.
Now, I believe there is somthing there worth investigating.
Of those 5 Toad and SK are the one's i've been constant about, and toad is the only one to make any real accusations against me. Zanfada i hold no real suspicion of anymore.
Why not vote me? Seems like an easy lynch. It would probably give you some answers, too. But you knew that I would flip green, and when that happened you do not want to be on the list as a scum.
1) His posts are long when a simple reply could answer the question (disregarding his analysis post on risk). As scum he's using longer posts to try and cover all possible points that could indicate him to be Mafia.
Yes, or perhaps his excuse is a valid one. I made a comment about time-zones and it nearly got me lynched.
2) The only person who would benefit from Risk's death is Toad. Now, my earlier statement on that was it could be a Mafia ploy to distract us, but that would also be immediately obvious so it could be a double trick (kill risk to get suspicion on toad, but we realize that and stop focusing on toad, and then toad is mafia so it was just a convoluted trap that could work). At this point it just gets into an infinite chain of back and forth.
Now this is interesting. You're right - it could be a double trick. Or a triple trick, or whatever. I think getting rid of risk is too obvious, and I dont think it would benefit him. Sometimes there is not a hidden meaning, and sometimes the most obvious answer is the right one. But we can not be 100% certain untill we get some lynching done. At this time, I believe Drem to be a valid lynch. Another day without a lynch is getting us nowhere.
## Vote Drem903
Why does he meekly follow my initial vote explanation and yet highlight hyshes' name on his list of people he wants to look at? Also, a few posts after this, HoD probably picked up on his comment and posted a good accusation versus hyshes, leading to his emo-bandwagon into suicide.
On November 03 2011 11:09 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: @Skrammen Since you reappeared, I would like to reassert my earlier request; If you value your life, please make a post of the following: 1) At least 2, preferably 3 people you think are scum 2) Explanations and some analysis of why you think they are scum 3) At least 2, preferably more, people you think are town, excluding yourself 4) Explanations of why you think they are town 5) What you think the goal of the risk.nuke shooting was
I'm going to reply to this quickly for now, and I will come back with a more thorough respons once I get my sleep. I've been busy all day and its getting late over here.
1) At this point I think atleast Drem is a scum. Im suspicious of Hyshes and chocolate, but Toad is still on my radar.
3) I think Bunneh is a townie. Ciry seems pro-town and I havnt made my mind up about the rest of them, but im about 50-50 on Zanfada and yourself.
5) I believe the biggest reason for getting rid of risk is to get either me or toad lynched today. If I get lynched and flip green, toad is very very suspicious. If toad gets lynched and flips green then that would put pressure on me and those who pushed toad the most.
2) I dont have much to add to my previous post where I laid out some of my thoughts and voted for Drem. But I thought that both hyshes and Drem were mafias, but Hyshes voted Drem earlier. Now, this could be a ploy or one of them is green. If we do lynch Hyshes and he flips green, I will look even closer at Drem.
As for Hyshes, I honestly dont have much to add to your thoughts regarding the matter. One thing is that he did not vote for the easy lynch, because being on the list when I flipped green would spell bad news for him. I think this is a pretty good scumtell. If he flips red we should pressure everyone else who did not vote for me hard, as there is likely to be scum among them. And I do not like one bit his defeatist attitude. If you are green and you do this, you are only hurting the town.
4) So far it seems to me that both Bunneh and Ciry are townies because they are both very pro-town. Stirring up discussions and the like. To be very honest - I have not looked as much from this angle, I've been pretty busy both defending myself and trying to discern who are scums.
So, unless hyshes makes a solid defence for himself I guess im with the bandwagon.
## Unvote Drem903 ## Vote Hyshes
He does expound why hyshes after HoD's accusation and blow-up is a good lynch target in the first place. One could easily say that the "after the fact" helps him in that respect though.
I'll expect him to look at drem as well, after that statement he said, so if he doesn't, I think I can call him out on that. Otherwise he hasn't really explored everyone else when it comes to their reliability.
Toadesstern, Drem903 and Zanfada posting nitpicks are to follow; but if I get to Day 3 (Saturday Noon to Monday Noon), I'll post on everyone's activity by that point, including myself.
TL;DR? READ IT, we're going to lose to inactivity and not poking everyone.
I will try to sneak in a PBP on Toad during the noon break if I can help it. I'm going to be running around a convention center and talking to people, so I can't help being away from the net.
On November 05 2011 11:42 sermokala wrote: ##vote Toadesstern
God damm I've wanted to vote him so hard from before this game got into the teen pages. Every post that I've seen him post just oozes scum.
Next skrammen dies. They've both scum or we're all dead we don't have a choice at this point before people get paranoid that I'm scum.
You think they are both scum when Toad was the third vote on Skrammen day 1? When it couldn't be known whether that would get him killed or not? Somehow I sincerely doubt scum would have been willing to risk bussing one of their own that early on...
If you think Skrammen is scum or if you think Toad is scum, I could understand some, but both I cannot comprehend. You'll have to explain yourself a lot better than that. Also, you'll have to do a lot of posting/explaining in general if you actually want to help us out. Hackle didn't exactly leave us with much to work with.
First off It can't be me no mafia would go inactive
Exhibit 1.
On October 31 2011 17:31 Toadesstern wrote: He just turned out to attack me and since I know I'm not mafia that does sound a bit strange to me
reasons a threat to onesself and then references that "he knows hes not mafia". his first moves in this very thread are counter to another instead of just srugging off and trying to elaborate on someone else. Smart scum moves proving his guilt. Exhibit 2
On November 01 2011 01:54 hacklebeast wrote: ## vote toadesstern
I think his moves have been shady since the beginning. First tries to get the important figures to revel themselves (not explicitly, but if a lurker suddenly started posting significantly after it would give mafia a good clue), then follows it up with a lot of talk about the necessity to kill lurkers. To top it off he fingers chocolate only to rescind his vote after no one else follows suit.
Switches up his game then (this is page 13) going from randomly choseing someone rescinds this and then trys to get a lynch to happen without justifying it. simple slight of hand to remove any question to himself about anything while achieving his end goal as a scum. Exhibit 4
On November 03 2011 20:21 Toadesstern wrote: wtf is this hyshes. I am almost certain harb's green. I'm not going to stop voteing for you because of those 3 posts and to tell the truth all 3 aren't exactly looking town.
I've got my vote on hyshes as well ## Vote Hyshes
Also how do you know we got a dt? We don't have to have one. Yeah couple of people look blue but they could be medics as well or one medic one dt or whatever. And btw that could be a reason why mafia did not go for obvious lynches as well. Maybe they feared there actually is a medic who would get a hero safe on someone like ciry on day1.
A townie is just not going to say "yeah go ahead and lynch me" just because of one vote, no matter how strong the case. He would try to defend and tell the guy where his mistake is to make sure he's not getting lynched because after all, a 100% townie lynch is worse than a 90% townie lynch. After all you know for certain if you are town or not. I did the same although I phrased it a little bit different. I told you to lynch either skrammen or me as I thought it's the only majoritys we're going to get today and since I know I'm not mafia I went for skrammen because I thought he's something about 50% town which is still better than a lynch on me.
Accepts bait
But guess what happened to one of the guys who voted for him? Risk is dead and he was a townie. easy clean mafia tactics by toad here.
Exhibit 5.
On November 03 2011 20:25 Toadesstern wrote: Also if you REALLY know 3 scums + dt (however that's possible) there would be no problem to tell us. Yeah our dt would die but who cares if we got a 100% proof list of those 3 scums (which is never going to happen). So that last post just makes no sense. Maybe you got a decent idea, I think I got a decent idea of who might be blue and who might be mafia too but I'm not going to be as bold to say I'm 100% sure. Additionally a DT really hasn't that much extra information. I'd say (that is if we got one!) he either checked skrammen or me on night1. So he either knows if I'm red/green or if skrammen is red/green but that's still 9 people left (11 - 1 he checked - himself) he's completly unaware of.
this is the most oozing post for me. If someone came out and said that they know who the scums and dt is they would be imediatly cast into doubt with little evidence and the real scums would pounce on that. then he goes on about his "idea" of whos scum and only gets away withoutsaying anything about it by saying that hes not "bold".
/vote Toadesstern
and thats all I'm going to do for my first couple posts. made a bunch of mistakes but I'm sure I'll get into this just fine.
You think they are both scum when Toad was the third vote on Skrammen day 1? When it couldn't be known whether that would get him killed or not?
Analysis is important, but make it good. I have some questions regarding yours:
his first moves in this very thread are counter to another instead of just srugging off and trying to elaborate on someone else.
What does this sentence even mean?
You have nothing listed as exhibit number 3, did you mean to post more? If so, why did you remove it?
In exhibit 4, if the voting for Hyshes is an implication of being scum, can you please explain why everyone else voting for him isn't scum as well? Also, does that imply you believe me to be scum for starting the case against Hyshes?
Also, from Toad 5 hours before your exhibit 5, in regards to him 'not saying' his reads:
Right now I'd still like to push for hackle the most. Drem and skrammen both are strange but I'm not sure about both right now. Drems mistake the other day is just so simple it got to be a real mistake rather than a scumslip. Also given he doesen't know how many mafias are in this game I'd sag he's not mafia. I still got a feeling skrammen might be green, I'm off to univerity now and will look this through later on.
Also, at the time of your exhibit he is voting for Hyshes, so clearly he thought Hyshes is scum as well. Don't abuse a lack of context with quoting, it is a scummy thing to do.
I accept exhibit two and the point about him being a benefactor from Risk's death. Exhibit one I don't understand so I cannot comment on.
Also, this won't fly:
First off It can't be me no mafia would go inactive
Expect me to drill you on everything until I have a good read on you. Feel free to help out by posting lots of your reads and explanations for them. A good starting point would be answering my original question regarding Skrammen/Toad. Additionally, I would like your reads on Chocolate and xsksc, along with an explanation of course.
On November 05 2011 13:00 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: Chocolate and xsksc, I would be interested in hearing your reads on each other, as well as an explanation of the read of course.
The same goes for Skrammen and xsksc.
Certainly, I'll start with
Chocolate
He hasn't posted a lot, so I don't have much of a read on him. He seems like a semi-active lurker, not saying a lot but still getting his vote/opinnion in, he's stayed out of the spotlight quite well. He could well be a mafia just trying to get by quietly, although at the moment I don't have too much on him.
Skrammen
This guy intrigues me, his defense was pretty weak day 1, and I think he only missed being lynched because mafia must have spread their votes. This guys green if toad is mafia, but the same can be said for toad. BOTH of these guys benefited from risks death, skrammen a bit more indirectly than toad. Risk was pretty much the only guy defending skrammen day 1, so when he flips green it makes skrammen look good. He was also the guy leading the toad campaign. I have re-read the thread, and I STILL can't decide which one of these guys is scum and which isn't.
Current FOS list would be something like this
1) Toad or Skrammen
2) Drem
3) Someone who's fitting in well and hasn't been thought about too much, chocolate or hackle/hackles replacement perhaps.
I think I'll start the day with a pressure vote
##vote Drem903
On November 02 2011 07:20 Drem903 wrote: I guess i don't honestly have a good reason as to why i did not vote for SKrammen in the end.
You blocked the skrammen lynch day 1, without even having a good explanation?
@Drem
What are your current reads? Do you still hold by your day 1 decision to help block the lynch? How do you feel about Skrammen and Toad now?
Awesome work (read terrible for them) by scum by not doing a hit, or great work by a medic predicting the day's hit. Or we could be seeing a mind-fuck from them, which considering how we haven't been able to get a proper vote going (Skrammen no-lynch and hyshes self-wagon), can only mean a good thing for town. I still can't do my nitpicking on everyone right now; but it will arrive on this Day.
On October 31 2011 17:31 Toadesstern wrote: He just turned out to attack me and since I know I'm not mafia that does sound a bit strange to me
reasons a threat to onesself and then references that "he knows hes not mafia". his first moves in this very thread are counter to another instead of just srugging off and trying to elaborate on someone else. Smart scum moves proving his guilt. Exhibit 2
On November 01 2011 01:54 hacklebeast wrote: ## vote toadesstern
I think his moves have been shady since the beginning. First tries to get the important figures to revel themselves (not explicitly, but if a lurker suddenly started posting significantly after it would give mafia a good clue), then follows it up with a lot of talk about the necessity to kill lurkers. To top it off he fingers chocolate only to rescind his vote after no one else follows suit.
Switches up his game then (this is page 13) going from randomly choseing someone rescinds this and then trys to get a lynch to happen without justifying it. simple slight of hand to remove any question to himself about anything while achieving his end goal as a scum. Exhibit 4
On November 03 2011 20:21 Toadesstern wrote: wtf is this hyshes. I am almost certain harb's green. I'm not going to stop voteing for you because of those 3 posts and to tell the truth all 3 aren't exactly looking town.
I've got my vote on hyshes as well ## Vote Hyshes
Also how do you know we got a dt? We don't have to have one. Yeah couple of people look blue but they could be medics as well or one medic one dt or whatever. And btw that could be a reason why mafia did not go for obvious lynches as well. Maybe they feared there actually is a medic who would get a hero safe on someone like ciry on day1.
A townie is just not going to say "yeah go ahead and lynch me" just because of one vote, no matter how strong the case. He would try to defend and tell the guy where his mistake is to make sure he's not getting lynched because after all, a 100% townie lynch is worse than a 90% townie lynch. After all you know for certain if you are town or not. I did the same although I phrased it a little bit different. I told you to lynch either skrammen or me as I thought it's the only majoritys we're going to get today and since I know I'm not mafia I went for skrammen because I thought he's something about 50% town which is still better than a lynch on me.
Accepts bait
But guess what happened to one of the guys who voted for him? Risk is dead and he was a townie. easy clean mafia tactics by toad here.
On November 03 2011 20:25 Toadesstern wrote: Also if you REALLY know 3 scums + dt (however that's possible) there would be no problem to tell us. Yeah our dt would die but who cares if we got a 100% proof list of those 3 scums (which is never going to happen). So that last post just makes no sense. Maybe you got a decent idea, I think I got a decent idea of who might be blue and who might be mafia too but I'm not going to be as bold to say I'm 100% sure. Additionally a DT really hasn't that much extra information. I'd say (that is if we got one!) he either checked skrammen or me on night1. So he either knows if I'm red/green or if skrammen is red/green but that's still 9 people left (11 - 1 he checked - himself) he's completly unaware of.
this is the most oozing post for me. If someone came out and said that they know who the scums and dt is they would be imediatly cast into doubt with little evidence and the real scums would pounce on that. then he goes on about his "idea" of whos scum and only gets away withoutsaying anything about it by saying that hes not "bold".
/vote Toadesstern
and thats all I'm going to do for my first couple posts. made a bunch of mistakes but I'm sure I'll get into this just fine.
Ok I'm back and lol we got a hero medic :p To answer those things above:
1) Yes it was day1 and I just did not think there was something that could get problematic at that point in time. I do realize that I should not have played it that easy the very first hours and should have explained everything better in the beginning. Also this is half an answer to your second one. Yeah I figured those guys really think my phrase (that one where I told people to talk no matter if blue, green or red) was odd so I had to react to it and from that point in time I changed it up and explained EVERYTHING I wrote. So yeah I changed it up because I thought my play on day1 had flaws in it. Not those 'weird' phrases you guys showed but those 2 answeres. One of them you just quoted and the other one being that paranoid answer.
2) I still think lynching a maybe-mafia is better than a no-lynch + what I said at 1).
3) not found :p
4) Bait accepted? I did NOT vote for him before he started pulling that emo. Once he did it I had to vote for him. And someone else mentioned I was late on voting for hyshes (I think bunneh or I misread something). I was the 2nd (!) to vote for hyshes.
5) Look it up, I posted that list just some posts earlier because I was asked to make a list by harb so I figured I don't have to quote myself just to state that I actually made that list. And yeah what you said is what I did. HE SAID he got a list and is pretty sure he knows who our dt and those 3 mafias is, although we don't even know if we got a dt. That's just weird and you just explained yourself why my reasoning was fine according to you, you just ended up saying it's not. Either because you're under stress right now and have to compensate for hacks poor play and had to get something done quick or because you want people to lynch me and can't find a real thing.
So, I'm just going to share some of my thoughts and consider some scenarios here. First of all, welcome hacklebeast 2.0 Sermokala. You've probably been following this thread and already have some thoughts to share with us. With you being new its pretty difficult for us to get a read on you. I would love if you could post some more of your thoughts regarding who is scum and who is town.
Regarding the Me vs. Toadsstern thing, at this point two options seem to be possible:
1. One of us is scum. This seems to be the general consensus, and we've been in each others throat for most of this game. But if toad was green then the mafia should have used this, because if Toad gets killed by mafia, I would have been lynched already. But if we consider Toad to be a mafia, the scum will not touch me, because if I die it gives you pretty good information on him.
2. Neither of us are scum. I'm not quite sure about this, but I've mentioned this previously. I think this is the least likely of the two.
We cant be sure there is a medic, yet he automatically says there is one. A scumslip?
Although, to be fair, I do not think the mafia would abstain from trying to kill someone, so we might have one. I cant be for sure if this is a scumslip or just a lack of clarification, but it does seem a bit suspicious to me.
On November 05 2011 23:21 Skrammen wrote: So, I'm just going to share some of my thoughts and consider some scenarios here. First of all, welcome hacklebeast 2.0 Sermokala. You've probably been following this thread and already have some thoughts to share with us. With you being new its pretty difficult for us to get a read on you. I would love if you could post some more of your thoughts regarding who is scum and who is town.
Regarding the Me vs. Toadsstern thing, at this point two options seem to be possible:
1. One of us is scum. This seems to be the general consensus, and we've been in each others throat for most of this game. But if toad was green then the mafia should have used this, because if Toad gets killed by mafia, I would have been lynched already. But if we consider Toad to be a mafia, the scum will not touch me, because if I die it gives you pretty good information on him.
2. Neither of us are scum. I'm not quite sure about this, but I've mentioned this previously. I think this is the least likely of the two.
We cant be sure there is a medic, yet he automatically says there is one. A scumslip?
Although, to be fair, I do not think the mafia would abstain from trying to kill someone, so we might have one. I cant be for sure if this is a scumslip or just a lack of clarification, but it does seem a bit suspicious to me.
a scumslip? What other possibilities are there? :D And no, Mafia deciding to /dance (deciding not to kill someone) is not an explanation I'm going with. So yeah I guess the only thing left is us havin a medic.
but it's awesome. The very moment I post something that's so clear and I don't need to explain it someone shows up and yells at me that I'm scum because you can interprete it in a way nobody does until he's forced to do so by some magical power. I don't know if that's a townie being overeager to find something where nothing's to be found or a mafia trying to get people on me again. I'm still kinda shocked since hyshes flipped green. If I have to stop lynching people like hyshes I'm just not sure by what standars I'm supposed to go. A mafia yelling he's mafia? Yeah that happened last game and he got banned for that. But given those two things (mafia yelling he's mafia and what hyshes did) I'm just having problems imagining something you're able to do that makes you more mafia than hyshes actions and at the same time less than a mafia yelling he's mafia because that's a banreason.
On November 05 2011 23:48 Toadesstern wrote: but it's awesome. The very moment I post something that's so clear and I don't need to explain it someone shows up and yells at me that I'm scum because you can interprete it in a way nobody does until he's forced to do so by some magical power. I don't know if that's a townie being overeager to find something where nothing's to be found or a mafia trying to get people on me again. I'm still kinda shocked since hyshes flipped green. If I have to stop lynching people like hyshes I'm just not sure by what standars I'm supposed to go. A mafia yelling he's mafia? Yeah that happened last game and he got banned for that. But given those two things (mafia yelling he's mafia and what hyshes did) I'm just having problems imagining something you're able to do that makes you more mafia than hyshes actions and at the same time less than a mafia yelling he's mafia because that's a banreason.
Everything you say will be analyzed and scrutinized, and thats how its supposed to be.
Ok let's look back at what we know out of the voting from day1. I changed it a little bit do add who's dead and deleted those unvotes to make it more readable. The only people who changes votes were me ( I was on choc changing to skrammen) and zanfa who was on hack and changed to skrammen as well. So here we go:
On November 01 2011 10:02 kitaman27 wrote: Day One Update
That was the most recent update on day1 and nothing changed afterwards, so it got to be right. I'm not going to make it to complex here and will just talk about the skrammen-issue and what skrammen being red or green means. So obviously we got 2 possibilties: He's either red or green (while being blue would be a subset of being green). What does either one mean for us? If he turns out to be read I'm 99% certain there's no mafia voting for him. I don't think they would risk that given we already got 6 votes for him and 7 would be enough to lynch him. As you can see we only got 4 people who are not voting for skrammen who are still alive. That would mean if skrammen's red probably 2 out of those 3 left are mafia (those 3 are former hacklebeast, bunneh and drem). So that would be awesome. However if he flips green we probably got a bunch of mafias voting for skrammen as well. I'd say about 2 and one spreading his vote. If that's what's true we might have to reconsider who actually is town and who's not. 2 Days ago I went ahead and said I'm pretty sury ciry, zanfa and xsksc are town. Takeing into consideration what harb did the last days he's without a doubtt on my town list as well. What's left is choc and myself. Frankly I'm considering myself to be townie :p Also I think a lot of people are still considering me to be a 50/50 because of what happened on day1 because from my point of view I made clear I'm a townie on night1 and day2 but yeah those 2 lynches which turned out to be green didn't exactly help my reputation since both wanted to get me lynched. So for me that makes choc an easy target (that is ONCE and IF skrammen flips green) and I have to reconsider what I think of xsksc (haven't checkes his history but I got the feeling he isn't posting that much lately), ciry (same as xsksc although he got an excuse) and zanfa (same again).
Right know I'm leaning towards skrammen because of that. If we lynch a townie again it's 6v3 and if mafias succeeds in killing a townie it's going to be 5v3 which is almost lylo (it is unless our medic pulls another hero) and we have to lynch 3 mafias in a row to get this done.
I really should proofread after changing phrases because if I don't a post like the one above comes out I hope it's still understandable. Some spelling issues (do = to, read = red, that very first sentence just got no grammar or whatsoever :p)
also just to add this: I am aware of that post ciry made earlier and it looks to be town no question it's just that other than those big analyses he's completly skipping the talk. I know he said he's buisy but I just wanted to mention it.
On November 06 2011 00:39 Toadesstern wrote: also just to add this: I am aware of that post ciry made earlier and it looks to be town no question it's just that other than those big analyses he's completly skipping the talk. I know he said he's buisy but I just wanted to mention it.
Just got home, I'm fucking burnt out, and I'm ready to get back in this game with a PBP worth a damn when I wake up. I'll let you guys judge for yourselves what you think once it's done; it's probably going to be half a page worth of per-person talk.
I just wanted to make clear from you Toad, what are you expecting from me regarding this? Do you want me to weigh in on you looking like scum to most people? Or are you asking me why Skrammen ought to be the one lynched instead?
As for looking like skipping the talk, the point is, right now, we're nearly back to where we were before we got railroaded by hyshes, with some obvious targets for town, and what I'm going to do (the PBP), will provide town with a lot of talking points while I also provide my own input, which is where I don't skip talking. Giving grounds for discussion is just as important as actually discussing the issues, as it allows people to defend or attack talking points more vigorously and convince them of one point or another.
On the SKrammen - Toad thing, I can't help but think we've spent the time since the failed lynch day 1 pussyfooting around the issue because we can't say for certain. If one falls down, then we have a massive amount of information that we've been clamouring for since Day 1, yet done nothing about. The subtext of most posts seem to be "X Y and Z are suspicious, and obviously one of Toad or SKrammen are scum".
If one of them are scum, we should do something about it, not dick around. If one flips green, we know with absolute certainty who we want to lynch the following day.
If we were to vote based on percentage liklihood (something subjective), then the only choices I'm seeing right now is a 50/50 on SKrammen/Toad, and a 50-70 chance on Drem. However that 50/50 immediately becomes "the other guy is 100% the other thing) if we get a lynch there.
For this reason, I'm making my vote the one that gets the most information for us. It's not a choice anyone necessarily WANTS to make, since we have a 50% chance of getting it wrong, but at this point I feel it's now or never to get that 100% chance next time.
Continuing with my usual information requests... Zanfada and xsksc, I would be interested in hearing your reads on each other, as well as an explanation of the read of course. Same for Zanfada and Bunneh.
Well in that case I'm obviously on Skrammen. Given what I said earlier I think the outcome is always better if we lynch skrammen. If he's mafia than fine, we just lynched a mafia (same if you lynch me and I flip red). However since we got hyshes and risk the green case is really fucked up. If I flip green you can't tell a bit about other people because risk and hyshes, who both targeted me were green. So a logic like "let's just lynch everyone who pushed for toad" would be flawed. Plus I got to add that I still think the only reason you guys still think I'm 50% mafia is because of those weird lynches/kills by mafia. Yes both attacked me bot come on, noone could have THAT seen comming
On November 06 2011 02:59 Toadesstern wrote: Well in that case I'm obviously on Skrammen. Given what I said earlier I think the outcome is always better if we lynch skrammen. If he's mafia than fine, we just lynched a mafia (same if you lynch me and I flip red). However since we got hyshes and risk the green case is really fucked up. If I flip green you can't tell a bit about other people because risk and hyshes, who both targeted me were green. So a logic like "let's just lynch everyone who pushed for toad" would be flawed. Plus I got to add that I still think the only reason you guys still think I'm 50% mafia is because of those weird lynches/kills by mafia. Yes both attacked me bot come on, noone could have THAT seen comming
I'm still conflicted on that. It's not JUST the suspicion of who else have died/lynched, there are parts of your behaviour that still strike me as scummy. But then there is also behaviour that strikes me as townie. I get the feeling that mafia would be more active than SKrammen is being though, however I could be ENTIRELY wrong on that.
My initial vote remains on Toads, however I feel Toads or SKrammen have to go today. If there are more people jumping on SKrammen near the deadline, I'll swap my vote to ensure we get the lynch we need. My vote for Toads first is my feeling that Toads is more likely scum than SKrammen. I might also see something between now and then that changes my mind anyway, so who knows.
@Harbinger: Tomorrow (RL time) will have to be for a true look back through his posts, since I have friends shortly arriving for a party at mine. My initial answer to that post is earlier I thought he was suspicious, but it may have been the feeling of "everyone is suspicious to me wtf do I do?!". I don't think he's posted that much in the last day or 2 (real life days, not ingame days) so I'd like to see a bit more from him, and potentially what he thinks of me, by the time I reply tomorrow. If that doesn't come through I'll go ahead and PBP (assuming this is play by play?) what I think of him anyway.
Just got a call. I'm going to be out playing poker today in an hour. So if you got questions for me, now would be the time. I'm going to be back at 02:00 am my time I guess (that's in 6 hours) and since it's saturday np to stay up for the deadline. So if you can't wait 6 hours for my response go ahead and ask NOW or wait 6 hous.
What are your current reads? Do you still hold by your day 1 decision to help block the lynch? How do you feel about Skrammen and Toad now?
My current reads are still: Chocolate and SK.
My reasons remain the same for chocolate as they were on day 2, and he hasn't posted since he changed his vote to Hyshes (it could be interesting to note that he does point out that mafia are among the people who voted for hyshes, as he himself did). This could be reading into things now, but he was also the last person to vote hyshes. When would be the best time for mafia to vote for a town other than towards the end to make sure that a townie was lynched, and there were not last second changes?
My read on SK isn't the strongest, but Toad has at least contributed a decent amount. SK on the other hand hasn't posted that much (although we have to beware that he could also be a blue, that's trying to lay low). Even his most recent post doesn't amount to much other than a welcome for sermokala, and a hypothetical situation based on who turns up red.
My read on Toad is kind of up in the air though. His posts are really long, not that that's a bad thing, but in this case his posts amount to a few points, and paragraphs of fluff that could be cut out. It would be dangerous for a mafia to post as much as he does, as he risks making a scum slip, so that's on the things that makes me tentative to declare him to be scum (it looks liek it's either him or SK).
Do i hold by my decision to block the lynch? No, i'm pretty sure i said i regret doing it. in the end, we're 3 days in and we've gotten nowhere (although it is still a surprise that mafia didn't kill anyone (or they got blocked)), and i'm definitely one of the people to blame for that.
I'll re-read stuff and make sure my reads still makes sense on a closer inspection later, but for now I'd like to mention my current thoughts on the situation to give people some time to look into things themselves:
People voting for Toad, you're going to have to make a stronger case than you have so far if you want me on board. We need 6 to lynch, and we have 7 town left, so I assume you do. Or you can wait for Ciry to make his post, and pray he thinks Toad is scum and argues it well :-P Personally I'd recommend putting together something yourself.
People who want Skrammen lynched, I'd really like to see a stronger case made here as well. I know I was an advocate of his lynch day 1, but I have more of a town read on him than I did then, and lynching solely for information without a very good chance of scum is a big risk at this point. That being said, us winning without a lynch today will be extraordinarily difficult, so worst case scenario I might be willing to vote for him to get a lynch, even without further evidence. Once again, I'd really recommend making a stronger case here.
People who want Drem lynched, again I have my doubts. Probably similar feelings to what I have on Skrammen, but I would also like to encourage everyone to look through at how many people seem to be fine with Drem being lynched. Scum looking for town cred, and setting up a bus if needed? Maybe, but I'm not convinced.
People I would like everyone to take a closer look at: xsksc and Chocolate I'm not saying that they are scum yet, and as I said I will check things out more closely when I get the chance, but I'd certainly like to call some attention to these two as they have gotten away with far too little scrutiny on them.
@Sermokala: I know you joined in late, but if you're town you better get caught up and do a hell of a lot of talking to help us figure out what side you're on.
hey there I'm at a friends laptop right now and since I run into AK on an AXX board (first fucking hand in our 9 people tournament...) having AQ I'm having some spare time until they finished this round
First of all I'm unvoting, I might have found something weird. ##Unvote Skrammen
But I would like to see one particular post and I just can't find it. Someone stated a weird ratio of town vs mafia and I'm not sure who did that. If you guys know what I'm talking about I'd really love to see that post again because I can't find it, I don't know who did that post, I don't know at which page this post was made and I don't know by what I should search. A reply of who made that post would be good just fine because I could look my way through his posts as well. After all I can do the work myself I just need to know who made that post.
But most interestingly, I feel the need to emphasize this again. Nobody is taking his side.
Allow me. Or at least my view on it.
I would say to those voting Skrammen, is inactivity the only reason? I'd have thought if he WAS scummy he'd have come out and said SOMETHING by now, rather than just toppling over without a fight. Even a new scum would try and do something to alleviate themselves wouldn't they?
Voting the inactives isn't a bad choice for what was pointed out earlier (was it by Toads?), that at the very least if they AREN'T scum then they're not that helpful either. But I think the scum would have shown themselves by now.
I also think the fact that he has the MOST votes is telling more of the voters than anything. Scum are more likely to team up votes right? So out of those of you who HAVE voted on him, Zanfa, Xsksc, Harbinger, Chocolate, Toad, Ciry... as I type this that's the first time I've counted 6 already?
I agree we should lynch someone suspicious, but unless someone can give me a better reason than "he hasn't posted much", I can't agree to the Skrammen lynching. I still think Toad is an obvious read, though Zanfa has been awfully quiet since the blame shifted away from him.
A question though:
Harbinger's post history seems to be about 50% condemning Skrammen even before other people joined in, and he hasn't really relented or even looked much at anyone else. Why are you so focused on Skrammen?
In that quote he is defending Skram and attacking Toad. Imo if we lynch Toad and he comes up town then I would think Skram and BUNNEH are scum, but if Toad comes up red then I think IMABUNNEH is town. I agree with the bolded point, Skram has been quiet and it has hurt his defense, If he is scum I would think his scum buddies would be pressuring him to make at least some defense of some sort.
On November 03 2011 22:16 hyshes wrote: I'm not retarded, and this aint stupid play either. It's the only play i got left to have a possible chance on a town win. I'm just kinda hoping it will open your eyes. I'm just offering good working material here. for that purpose, i'm willing to do a sacrifice here.
After my action here it will be 6towns vs 3 mafia (assuming mafia kills a townie next night), so still a good majority for the town. Maybe if towns is lucky, it will be 7vs3..
Sacrificing yourself just to show you're green doesn't seem like it helps the town all that much. The reason being, IF you were to flip up green, then it drops to a 7/3. The mafia then get to ping someone else (right?), making it 6/3. At 6/3 it's going to be a lot harder for us to get a solid lynch on a scum.
If you throw yourself to the lions and turn out green, we're going to have real problems. If what you say is ACTUALLY true, don't sacrifice yourself, because in doing so you're basically sacrificing the town. This is why I think you MUST be red. You're right that you're not retarded, which is why the only possible option is that you're red.
Also in your other posts you refused to defend yourself against "retarded" logic (think that's the right quote, or the gist of it). The posts made against you are pretty sound logically, and your attitude to the accusation is entirely illogical.
This is BUNNEH trying to get more info out of hysh before he died, A town move imo.
Personally I think Bunneh’s fate is tied to who we lynch today. He defended skram, voted for toad, so if skram is red bunny is red too, I think we need to lynch skram or toad today, we have been focused on them since day 1, it is day 3 now, we need to get it resolved if we are to move forward.
my hard drive crashed and I need to reinstall a bunch of things and configure more things. Then I'm watching v for vendetta with a bunch of floor peoples.
tomarrow morning I'll have more posts. I've got to catch everyone up one up on my reads and stuff. that will take a while. I'll be doing that tomarrow.
Ok found it myself and I would like to hear your opinion on it. Might be a scumslip, might be just weird.
On November 03 2011 03:35 Drem903 wrote: you know, if you guys want to lynch me for having shitty reading comprehension and screwing up the lynch day 1 for not realizing there were only 3 mafia.... then i would not blame you.
We still have a much larger majority, so it's still not the worst situation. Also, even if we did succeed, all it would take was 2 other indecisive townies to vote differently (or vote with mafia unwittingly), to have nothing done today. Either way i could have screwed up much worse, and i do apologize for making the noobiest mistake possible.
On October 31 2011 01:19 Drem903 wrote: Are you able to change you're vote after you have voted?
If you're not able to change you're vote, then we also have to be very suspicious of zanfada. We both randomly chose a person to try and encourage discussion, but he actually voted. If you can't change you're vote, then that seems suspicious to me, as he seems in a hurry to lynch someone (anyone). If you can change you're vote, then it's no big deal, but it's still something to consider.
On November 03 2011 03:21 Drem903 wrote: [ ... his reason why he voted for me ... ]
Anyway, now that i'm a genuine target. As i said, my reasoning for not lynching SK was that my suspicion was not enough to risk lynching him if he's town. If Rammen was town, then we would have ended up losing two townies on day 1, leaving us with a bare majority (we would have 6 out of 10 people), which means every one of us would have to agree. The risk is that if one or two mafia make even an ok case, some town may agree with them and then we get split vote once more.
I wasn't convinced enough on SK to vote for him so i didn't. This is only my first game, so maybe that's just a nooby mistake and it's usually worth it to take a chance on the lynch, but i just didn't think it was in the town's best interest to take that chance.
Now that's kind of the drem we all know. He seems to be not that much informed, doesn't know you can unvote and isn't even aware of the fact how many mafias are in this game which would normally make him look really green because every mafia know how many buddies he has, right? HOWEVER, what I found yesterday was the following:
On November 01 2011 03:28 Drem903 wrote: I'll be the first to admit that i am not particularly talkative, although that's mostly because i don't have regular computer access at school.. I have been reading the thread through, and although i still hold zanfada in suspicion, i will also have to agree that SKrammen has not really contributed that much either.
His only notable post just recounts information that everyone should know (though some may not have read the thread too carefully and could've forgotten). Although i feel the need to point out, that SKrammen did call out Zanfada for being hasty to vote (even if he could later rescind the vote). If they were both scum, then it wouldn't make sense for them to call suspicion upon one another.
Zanfada also hasn't posted in a while, and the only notable parts of his posts were: asking the blues to post more frequently (though not to identify themselves), and to defend himself from hacklebeasts own accusations.
So, the people i'm currently very suspicious of are: SKrammen and Zanfada. When i get more time to really look at everyone's posts this might change, but it's just those 2 for now.
##vote Zanfada
Now read the bolded part again. That's kinda weird right? He's the guy who got so little information about mafia, does mistakes from time to time and also keeps telling us he's a noob (that's his excuse for not voting for skrammen on day1 and I think he said so a couple of times in the thread) and yet he comes and tells people they are suspicious because they posted something everyone should know? That's strange to say the least and I think he might be playing a game on us, fooling us into thinking he's a noob while he does those "mistakes" on purpose. He just completly changed his posting style that very moment. He's the guy who makes mistakes and therefore I stopped thinking he's mafia and yet he just comes by basicly telling people "hey that's really something odd, I think everybody knows about that because we had to read the thread, why do you post that?". Well yeah I thought everybody knows there's 3 mafias in this game as well just as I thought everybody knows you're able to unvote.
Your opinion guys? Oh and just to add. I don't even know what drem was talking about in the last post I quoted. He clearly was talking about zanfa but he didn't quote a thing. So I searched for a zanfa post on page 13 (that's where drems post was), nothing to be found ,same for page 12 and I finally found a post on page 11. + Show Spoiler +
On October 31 2011 06:30 Zanfada wrote: I can take my vote back at any time. The vote was just there to promote talking which it did just that.
What was alot more interesting was Toad's post and how it was received. I personally think blues should post and help the town or they stand out to mafia and playing safe and become much better targets. Also mafia rarely mention blues for the simple fact that it makes them look more like mafia hunting for blues with any mention of blues. The same goes for blues themselves, they want to hide with town and do their job. I think Toad was just trying to prevent what happened last game to happen this game. However his post doesn't say anything more then "post guys" which doesn't further along any conversation it just increase his post count which in my opinion is all mafia try to do for the first day.
On October 30 2011 14:42 Zanfada wrote: Day 1 it is very important not to let the mafia lurk and hide in the background. So we have to preasure them and force everyone to interact. If you look at the last mini mafia town lost because of inactivity. So we can't have anyone be inactive.
I guess to get things start hacklebeast hasn't posted anything yet. so until he speaks up or a better target comes along
##Vote hacklebeast
Unnecessarily trying to start a town panic? Baseless accusing people that, under your own admission, have no evidence against? Sounds like very mafia things to do. I'm not going to go so far as to cast my vote yet, but I'm watching you.
Besides, I could never have committed the crime. Gmarshal I could take or leave, but killing ponies? I don't have it in me to take out something this lovable.
I wasn't starting a town panic, though it seems to have caused you to panic a little. Your response to my vote seems to be an emotional plea involving ponies and a FOS but little more then that. It seems as if you are trying to not draw any sort of attention to yourself even after a vote has already been placed on you. Normally I would take this as a scum tell but it seems more like a newbie tell then a mafia at this point.
Then there is Ciryandor, he defended me and my baseless attack on someone. The only time I usually am defended is when scum are trying to buddy up with me. Or since he has played a few games he is just trying to let newbies know what I was doing. Still FOS for now.
Right now I'm on drem and I would like to hear his thoughts about it as well. Maybe I'm just misinterpreting something but I want him to tell me if that's the case and what I'm doing wrong. So imo he's either a total nooby or he's a mafia trying to make us think he'S a nooby and the last thing I quoted from drem makes me think it's the second one right now.
I will be linking to posts if I feel that the post is relevant, non-relevant comments to the game will be ignored or at least noted for their presence. Posts with important highlighted points will have relevant quotes either bolded or italicized as appropriate.
Toadesstern's post record is the longest of the surviving players, as he has also had the most suspicion on him.
This, at its very core, is what triggered people's suspicions on Toad. An exhortation based off his prior game experience in a game where I died Day 1, and Zanfada voted wrong, resulting in a scum win.
risk.nuke calls him out on it, and puts up a reasonable defense, utilizing the context of the situation as a valid point on why the post had to be made, and also on why it did not have that much content.
He comments on Zanfada thinking defending other players for good play being done by Ciryandor is scummy, and also points to Chocolate to explain why such activity deserves to be called out on.
Then he and Chocolate try to clear stuff with each other because of his double-barreled reply and end up summarizing the earlier post saying logically it should not be an issue anyway.
Then he votes Skrammen as a way out for self-preservation purposes, which I can't blame him for, also pointing out that scum votes could already be in play.
Then he points out that if town wants a lynch, they have to vote Skrammen based off the need for 7 votes, after Skrammen does a throwaway vote and xsksc puts a pressure vote, also doing further defense after risk highlights him looking band-wagonish.
After risk highlights why he thinks Skrammen is a townie lynch, toad responds that it's not really an easy lynch, given that Zanfada and himself were already leading in suspicion when the Skrammen vote by Ciryandor came out.
After the no-lynch, he explains why the town has to determine which if any of them is guilty, as he wants the debate on who's clean among the two of them to not last too long; and says that unfairly accused townies often have to vigorously defend themselves as they do not have enough information to actually do counter-accusations except for the slight tells one normally finds on posts, finally blowing up on risk and Skrammen for being obstructionist.
I will be linking to posts if I feel that the post is relevant, non-relevant comments to the game will be ignored or at least noted for their presence. Posts with important highlighted points will have relevant quotes either bolded or italicized as appropriate.
His first post is the first vote of the game. This is actually decent play, as long as you avoid the label of being scum trying to get a fast mislynch going; which then takes us to mind-game territory. Then he now points out in his next post that Toad's post worked in increasing activity, but also was empty of any accusations on anyone. In the same post, he also responds to Hackle's counterpoint and says Ciryandor's defense was unwarranted.
I'm not sure if there's something to this post, but it is notable that he defends Toad after having an FOS on Ciryandor for doing the same thing to him.
A reaction to Toad's post on the likelihood of Skrammen/himself being red, saying if both were green, scum fucked up, and if Toad were red, that Chocolate was likely red as well.
I will be linking to posts if I feel that the post is relevant, non-relevant comments to the game will be ignored or at least noted for their presence. Posts with important highlighted points will have relevant quotes either bolded or italicized as appropriate.
Drem903 has been with Skrammen on my likely scum list for some time already, but most of it has been for his early behavior, as I've stated in earlier responses. Let's see whether that holds up by now.
His first relevant post to the game is a random prod on xsksc. Excellent initiative of actually pointing to someone as pressure, but no vote? I'm of the school where you back up first day suspicions with pressure votes, especially in games where voting patterns are not very indicative of people's allegiances.
As I said regarding Zanfada, voting early is a risk, but somebody has to do it, and drem might have wanted to not have the pressure be on him if he did exactly that.
His next relevant post is here, where he says he was pushing for a response from xsksc with his accusation, then follows up with a short blurb on IMABUNNEH's posts being... "filler".
He doesn't vote on him for that though, and instead picks on Zanfada's early vote. Reasonable given his lack of awareness of how voting works, but still remarkable given that players should have read up on the rules.
Then he goes back and goes for Zanfada as a possible lynch, citing inactivity and lack of response; finally voting for him later despite the suspicions on Skrammen starting to get higher.
What we can note here following is how he essentially says: "If you're town, you should just lie down and die because it will help town more with you dead because you acted scummy as fuck."
I will be linking to posts if I feel that the post is relevant, non-relevant comments to the game will be ignored or at least noted for their presence. Posts with important highlighted points will have relevant quotes either bolded or italicized as appropriate.
HarbingerOfDoom has been the second most active remaining player based purely off post-count, and in my opinion the most likely town in the eyes of everyone.
His first post already asks solid first-day play, which is a good sign from someone willing to learn the game. Then he explains what Toad means with requiring activity, which says that he at least gets why Toad's post wasn't a scummy move. He gets called out for a bad FOS (IMO) on this by risk of all players
He then emphasizes that the town should not be too eager to jump on someone as an early bandwagon despite the suspicion, but should decry any attempts at escaping via inactivity.
I will be linking to posts if I feel that the post is relevant, non-relevant comments to the game will be ignored or at least noted for their presence. Posts with important highlighted points will have relevant quotes either bolded or italicized as appropriate.
First response ignores early pressure from Ciryandor and the debate starting on the people who have already posted (Zanfada vs hackle and Toad vs risk):
After Zanfada's post saying Toad's call for activity is good but lack of content is empty, he then goes up and targets him for being "needlessly aggressive" early on in Day 1.
Then he gets into a debate because of the lack of clarity on why there was an FOS on Ciryandor in his view. After that, he finally gets to vote on Skrammen to create pressure on his inactivity, to which Skrammen responds.
I will be linking to posts if I feel that the post is relevant, non-relevant comments to the game will be ignored or at least noted for their presence. Posts with important highlighted points will have relevant quotes either bolded or italicized as appropriate.
First response is appropriately enough an inquiry to why drem was pressuring him. With a relatively empty exhortation to be active but does not raise anyone to be suspicious of as a potential target:
After his absence he notes Toad's accusations against him and Zanfada's aggressiveness as items of note, saying that Zanfada is being hypocritical based on Zanfada's inactivity.
This does not stop him from voting Skrammen instead, which might be a pressure play in itself but feels off; however this does not take his eye off Zanfada, as he asks for a proper response to him from his accusations.
I will be linking to posts if I feel that the post is relevant, non-relevant comments to the game will be ignored or at least noted for their presence. Posts with important highlighted points will have relevant quotes either bolded or italicized as appropriate.
His first post is fluff, does not really want to target anyone. I can't really tell whether it's unfamiliarity or whatever.
He's wondering why people are being aggressive and calls out Toad and risk on it. With risk flipping green, I'm at an impasse on whether that means Toad is green or red.
This post leaves me wondering, he's right in saying that scumslips occur under pressure, then he goes the opposite route of people assuming Toad's actions were too scummy and says they looked okay against risk's agitations.
After that, he calls out once again the vote by Zanfada and takes the risk by wondering if either Zanfada or hackle is scum.
However, Skrammen's lack of activity takes away more of his attention, but he flops back to Zanfada; so he probably thinks these two are most suspicious at this point in time.
Still, with the continued pressure on Toad, he finally starts to look on whether those suspicions are worth looking into, finally committing with a vote after Toad says that him getting lynched would help expose who acted scummy and who did not do so.
For some reason, he then asks why HoD thought early on that Skrammen made a good lynch but didn't vote on it immediately, and HoD easily responds to it.
On Night 1, he implies that either Skrammen or Toad is red based off then-current information because of how Toad voted, and the fact that it would require a sneaky scumteam with Skrammen if Skrammen were the one who flipped red.
I will be linking to posts if I feel that the post is relevant, non-relevant comments to the game will be ignored or at least noted for their presence. Posts with important highlighted points will have relevant quotes either bolded or italicized as appropriate.
The first post is basically Ciryandor asking Toadesstern and Zanfada to be active and work towards a more active town unlike the last time; and may have been fishing for their activity levels to show if they're town as both were last game, or they were adjusting for being a blue/scum in Zanfada's case and a VT/scum for Toad's.
After the initial accusations on xsksc by drem and vote on hacklebeast/Sermokala by Zanfada, provides some explanation for good Day 1 play to HoD, provides a relevant reason for pushing that person as a good target because they have better activity levels, pokes on Toad to be active, but proposes Chocolate for pressure. Not sure whether one would characterize that as indecisive/unwilling to vote or if there's other purpose.
A reaction on Toad's comment of trying to survive, then moves on to call out Skrammen, Chocolate and hyshes for dubious "fluff posts" on activity. The next post then tries to give Chocolate more of a push to actually commit to a vote if he believes that Toad already merits suspicion.
After this he summarizes the current situation with the confusion on an FOS on him for slightly defending Zanfada, and the heavy pressure on Toad by multiple people for what he deems a misguided attempt to lynch him on shallow reasoning; with details corrected by HoD, calling out Chocolate and the dead hyshes on not having follow-through on their suspicions.
The next post is a big moment in Day 1, as it explains why Skrammen looks scummy and deserves his vote, then follows up with another suggested target in the name of Drem.
A defense of his vote being called out as bad by risk happens, but is deflected as it explains the case the best that it could and nobody else had bothered putting something out on Toad and Zanfada at the time.
I will be linking to posts if I feel that the post is relevant, non-relevant comments to the game will be ignored or at least noted for their presence. Posts with important highlighted points will have relevant quotes either bolded or italicized as appropriate.
First post on Day 1 is attacking Zanfada for good Day 1 play, which as I've said in his post, runs the risk of being characterized as scum activity trying to get momentum on a townie.
Finally, I leave to anyone who wants to follow up on my Day 1 post why they think Skrammen is a good lynch. Right now, my suspicions are on Drem and Skrammen, with xsksc being a close third. Toad and Bunneh's scumminess depend on each other, if one flips green or red, chances are the other is the same. Zanfada relies a bit on drem's flip as well. Chocolate and sermo are both non-tells, while HoD is closest to confirmed town in my eyes.
On November 07 2011 00:13 Ciryandor wrote: Finally, I leave to anyone who wants to follow up on my Day 1 post why they think Skrammen is a good lynch. Right now, my suspicions are on Drem and Skrammen, with xsksc being a close third. Toad and Bunneh's scumminess depend on each other, if one flips green or red, chances are the other is the same. Zanfada relies a bit on drem's flip as well. Chocolate and sermo are both non-tells, while HoD is closest to confirmed town in my eyes.
pretty much sums up my thoughts as well except for maybe xsksc. I would not put him on my 3rd place of my mafia list, maybe on 4 or 5. Could you please do me a favor and tell me what you think about what I pointed out about drem just before you started doing your analyses? Because that was actually the most flashing part for me when I searched his history because I thought it's just not fitting his usual style.
On November 07 2011 00:13 Ciryandor wrote: Finally, I leave to anyone who wants to follow up on my Day 1 post why they think Skrammen is a good lynch. Right now, my suspicions are on Drem and Skrammen, with xsksc being a close third. Toad and Bunneh's scumminess depend on each other, if one flips green or red, chances are the other is the same. Zanfada relies a bit on drem's flip as well. Chocolate and sermo are both non-tells, while HoD is closest to confirmed town in my eyes.
pretty much sums up my thoughts as well except for maybe xsksc. I would not put him on my 3rd place of my mafia list, maybe on 4 or 5. Could you please do me a favor and tell me what you think about what I pointed out about drem just before you started doing your analyses? Because that was actually the most flashing part for me when I searched his history because I thought it's just not fitting his usual style.
Well, when you add his later Day 2 posts (the November 3 timestamps that you quoted) to that post he did and the response to Zanfada you highlighted, it certainly reinforces the fact that he hasn't been consistent, and one could certainly argue that it's a clear scum-tell. In any case, the fact that we have you, drem and skrammen so linked to each other in potential green/red flips and suspicions (accusations/counteraccusations and defenses or lack thereof) means that we'd be wasting vote cycles if we look with the null-tells. I'll assume given the no kill that it's a medic and not some convoluted scum trick, and the medic only gets stronger in stopping scum KP the better he understands who scum want/need to shoot, as it certainly relies on probabilities as well.
On October 30 2011 11:27 Drem903 wrote: Whoever killed GMarshal must hate friendship, quite a bit.. and ponies. He is probably the worst type of scum to ever exist.
On October 30 2011 13:48 Drem903 wrote: using extensive analysis, and some complex theory. I have decided to blame xsksc for the murder, because his name is impossible to pronounce,
I see a parallel with the last mini game, where scum wanted to jump the gun a bit using some very speculative reason to create an FoS on someone; but in this case this is tempered by the fact that he did not vote on xsksc.
On October 30 2011 15:39 Drem903 wrote: If you're telling the truth that you're name really is just a random assortment of levels, then i will no longer blame you. I had assumed that you were possessed by some kind of devil, hence the inhuman name.
He plays it off as an attempt to stir conversation...
On October 31 2011 00:53 Drem903 wrote: The thing with xsksc was pretty much just a joke to try and get the ball rolling. The only person that has really garnered any suspicion from me is bunneh, and that's only because his posts seem to be "posts for the sake of posting" rather than trying to really get anything dones.
He only seems to post to try and appear active.
Then goes on the offensive after someone does commit to a real vote on a person.
On October 31 2011 01:19 Drem903 wrote: Are you able to change you're vote after you have voted?
If you're not able to change you're vote, then we also have to be very suspicious of zanfada. We both randomly chose a person to try and encourage discussion, but he actually voted. If you can't change you're vote, then that seems suspicious to me, as he seems in a hurry to lynch someone (anyone). If you can change you're vote, then it's no big deal, but it's still something to consider.
After that post, he basically leaves the suspicion on Zanfada, which by now looks good enough for other people to lynch.
There was no coming to each others' defense, as he has said nothing in my defense.
Hmm good point, that'll teach me to reread better.
We still haven't heard from Skrammen though, and I still think Toad is dodgy. Since other than telling people they should post more posts, he hasn't really said anything.
Zanfada also has not posted at all since his initial accusation, so he should also be one to consider for now.
[QUOTE]On November 01 2011 03:28 Drem903 wrote: I'll be the first to admit that i am not particularly talkative, although that's mostly because i don't have regular computer access at school.. I have been reading the thread through, and although i still hold zanfada in suspicion, i will also have to agree that SKrammen has not really contributed that much either.
His only notable post just recounts information that everyone should know (though some may not have read the thread too carefully and could've forgotten). Although i feel the need to point out, that SKrammen did call out Zanfada for being hasty to vote (even if he could later rescind the vote). If they were both scum, then it wouldn't make sense for them to call suspicion upon one another.
Zanfada also hasn't posted in a while, and the only notable parts of his posts were: asking the blues to post more frequently (though not to identify themselves), and to defend himself from hacklebeasts own accusations.
So, the people i'm currently very suspicious of are: SKrammen and Zanfada. When i get more time to really look at everyone's posts this might change, but it's just those 2 for now.
##vote Zanfada
Here he continues with his accusations of Zanfada and votes for him. But in his post ciry said this: + Show Spoiler +
After that post, he basically leaves the suspicion on Zanfada, which by now looks good enough for other people to lynch.
Now, at this time other people had been making suspicion of Zanfada, myself including. Only after this did he decide to vote him. He attempts to stay under the radar by voting a secondary lynch target, and kept his vote when the bandwagon came and went.
@Harbinger. I voted for Zanfada because he, at the time, was the person i was most suspicious of. In retrospect i should have looked at SKrammen's posts more, but at the time he [SKrammen] wasn't the most suspicious to me. Now, although SKrammen is still suspicious (he completely ignored toad's analysis a page back, and only responded to defend himself from Zanfa), i am starting to put a lot more thought in the the claim that Toadesstern is a major suspect. (Zanfa i am now unsure of, and hope to see more posts from him before i say anything more on him).
Mostly because he seems adamant about convincing us that he is town, and constantly restates that point over and over again. Which seems like something mafia would do if they were desperate to avoid a lynch.
As I've stated more than once when I looked at the voting patterns; it would make sense for the mafia to avoid being on the list of voters when I got lynched and flipped green.
I guess i don't honestly have a good reason as to why i did not vote for SKrammen in the end. The thing was i was only suspicious of those 2, and the one i was suspicious of to the point of voting was Zanfada. Although i was reary of SKrammen, i did not see him as suspicious to the point of lynching.
Although it is noteworthy to say that Toad does have a point about Risk not really posting that much. He's actively defending SK, although he immediately tries to spurn attention back on SK when he is called into question, and a few of his posts are just updates on him lurking. He has also tried to get people to look at Toad.
So if Toad is mafia, then risk probably isn't. If risk is mafia, then toad isn't, and SKrammen is also mafia because risk wouldn't defend him if he wasn't.
Again, this does not really change anything as far as I am concerned. But I am not sure if these "If x is mafia then y is town"-arguments are always valid. What if we lynch toad only to find out he is a townie?
If i had changed my vote to you, and you flipped green, everyone who voted for you would have been under heavy suspicion of being scum. So that's 7 people, of which i was 1, so what reasoning would i have to block you're vote if i was mafia? I wouldn't be that much more suspicious than any of the other 6.
For every towny that dies the mafia becomes stronger. If was mafia and had changed my vote to you, and i had said you were suspicious so it's not unlikely for a person to decide to agree with the majority if they had similar convictions, then why would i not vote for you to get you out of the way? The fact is, i didn't have enough conviction to accuse you as i didn't feel that you were necessarily scum. I wasn't convinced enough to take that risk. Bad townie play? possibly. Even worse mafia play? i would believe so.
He has a point now. But I would like someone elses input on this here - to me it makes sense for him not wanting to be one of the people who voted for me, but would you consider it bad mafia play to block it? I'm not so sure anymore.
I would like for you to tell us what you feel about Zanfada, and who do you think is Town?
So I thought I'd have more time now, as the original plan was my gf got back this evening, but instead she'll apparently be back within the next 15 minutes now. As such, I don't think I'll be able to make a big case post now (maybe I'll still get one up before the deadline? :-/), but I thought I'd make some contributions while I can.
Unless something comes up to change my mind, I am willing to vote for the following 4 people today: Skrammen, Chocolate, xsksc, Drem. With a preference in order of xsksc, Chocolate, Skrammen, Drem.
Should be back in time to change as somehow I doubt this one will garner enough votes to ensure a lynch, but for now ##vote xsksc
On November 07 2011 04:23 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: So I thought I'd have more time now, as the original plan was my gf got back this evening, but instead she'll apparently be back within the next 15 minutes now. As such, I don't think I'll be able to make a big case post now (maybe I'll still get one up before the deadline? :-/), but I thought I'd make some contributions while I can.
Unless something comes up to change my mind, I am willing to vote for the following 4 people today: Skrammen, Chocolate, xsksc, Drem. With a preference in order of xsksc, Chocolate, Skrammen, Drem.
Should be back in time to change as somehow I doubt this one will garner enough votes to ensure a lynch, but for now ##vote xsksc
How did I miss that... Well, I guess that answers it then, unless you got something else to add, Drem? I've also been thinking about somthing else:
His only notable post just recounts information that everyone should know (though some may not have read the thread too carefully and could've forgotten). Although i feel the need to point out, that SKrammen did call out Zanfada for being hasty to vote (even if he could later rescind the vote). If they were both scum, then it wouldn't make sense for them to call suspicion upon one another.
Wouldnt it make perfect sense for us to FoS each other if we were both mafia? And wouldnt it make sense for you to put suspicion on Zanfada if you two were mafiabuddies?
I know this is nothing solid nor any evidence of anything, I'd just like some input on this, because I'm not able to make up my mind about this. The activity has really dropped here the for the last few hours, and the lynch deadline is coming up fast.
Who has votes on them from who. With the voting deadline not too far away, and myself needing to get to bed early today, I'd like to see some kind of decision. I don't want to end the day without a lynch. With votes this spread people need to make choices. There hasn't been that much discussion today (I'm as much to blame as anyone else for that), and we're still missing votes from people.
I'd love to defend myself harb, but you haven't given a SINGLE reason why you voted for me. I'm really puzzled by this, if you want me lynched why wait so long in the day without giving anyone some reasons to vote for me? I'm EU so I cant be up until the deadline, are you trying to start a bandwagon on me when I won't be online to defend myself?
My read on people other then toad is pretty simple.
Skrammen has been lurking enough to be scum to me with responding only to other people and heavily quoting other peoples posts. Its an opposite I know to toads more spammy amount of posts but I see effort to hide scum status by the both of them I'm just more sure of toad at this point. Hes been supporting the lynching of people who arn't popular to lynch which I totally think that hes doing to distance himself from the other scums and/or trying to block lynching on the whole.
I don't buy any of this drem is scum he seems just like a townie or maybe something more. but not scum.
What I don't think people have been putting enough focus on is a few other people.
HarbingerOfDoom He seems really experienced. or hes putting way too much effort into being a "veteran" townie and has been leading a lot of the lynches I think to this point. With all of them being wrong and poorly supported I don't trust him and I think more people should be questioning him. He has too much confidence I feel for someone trying to find out whos going to kill him and I don't like that. He is the first to post and apologies for starting the wagon that killed hy? hy said that toad was scum and accused hod and was cast away for this.
IMABUNNEH Hes british and I found out that I'm ancestrally from Belgium and that makes me suspicious on how he expects everyone to not think hes a lurker scum while other people have been called out for it. HOD has been calling out other people but not him while he supports the lynch votes of HOD and that has really been getting the bandwagon rolling.
Chocolate Gets voted and then goes on a really active streak and then goes back to being a lurker. I don't want to go on a whichhunt alone but tomorrow I think we need to take a longer look at him if we don't get a mafia this time around.
I'm going to be honest if toad isn't scum I don't know what I'm going to do.
On November 07 2011 04:23 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: So I thought I'd have more time now, as the original plan was my gf got back this evening, but instead she'll apparently be back within the next 15 minutes now. As such, I don't think I'll be able to make a big case post now (maybe I'll still get one up before the deadline? :-/), but I thought I'd make some contributions while I can.
Unless something comes up to change my mind, I am willing to vote for the following 4 people today: Skrammen, Chocolate, xsksc, Drem. With a preference in order of xsksc, Chocolate, Skrammen, Drem.
Should be back in time to change as somehow I doubt this one will garner enough votes to ensure a lynch, but for now ##vote xsksc
How did I miss that... Well, I guess that answers it then, unless you got something else to add, Drem? I've also been thinking about somthing else:
His only notable post just recounts information that everyone should know (though some may not have read the thread too carefully and could've forgotten). Although i feel the need to point out, that SKrammen did call out Zanfada for being hasty to vote (even if he could later rescind the vote). If they were both scum, then it wouldn't make sense for them to call suspicion upon one another.
Wouldnt it make perfect sense for us to FoS each other if we were both mafia? And wouldnt it make sense for you to put suspicion on Zanfada if you two were mafiabuddies?
I know this is nothing solid nor any evidence of anything, I'd just like some input on this, because I'm not able to make up my mind about this. The activity has really dropped here the for the last few hours, and the lynch deadline is coming up fast.
There's not much to really add, to that. I still think the same poeple are town as before, none of them have changed. To me it would only make sense for mafia to throw suspicion on one another if they felt confident neither of them would be lynched. In the first day, i guess it's not a big risk. Still, this could still lead to the problem where if two mafia indicate each other in an attempt to just look like they're contributing, then one of them gets looked at too closely, slips up, and gets lynched. Mafia indicating mafia, to me, should only happen after there's a strong chance for a lynch on a town, just to look like you're genuinely active.
@Toad You're bolded post isn't entirely misinterpreted, but that comment was made prior to me learning that there were only 3 mafia (up until then i genuinely thought there were only 2), so pointing out that someone posted something that should be obvious is only hypocritical in hindsight.
Also, the ability to change votes isn't covered in the rules posted on page 1 (or in any of the guides at a glance), so i can't see what's suspicious about asking a question about something that isn't covered.
It really is a hard lynch and to be honest the decision whether to lynch skrammen or drems a comlpete gut feeling for me right now as they're both so close for me. Chocolate might be on the same level of scumminess or slightly below but I think we're able to spot if he's mafia out of a drem or skrammen lynch way better than the other way around. That's why I'm not on choc for today (unless I really have to because we got a bunch of votes on him) and would rather see skrammen or drem lynched. xsksc is still kind of a 0-read for me. He got a a few posts which looked a little townie and I thought there might be a bunch that look a little scummy but those turned out to be mistakes I made. Right now I'd say xsksc is more likely to be town but it's nowhere near a clear read.
Oh and my reasoning in drem over skrammen is that skrammen looks more scummy imo but drem looks less town. So far I went for risk and hyshes because they looked awfully scummy and in both cases it turned out to be a nooby-mistake. That's why I'm willing to change it up a bit and rather go for those who look like they're not town instead of going by people who look to be scum, because that could just be another nooby-mistake. Don't get this wrong, I don't think that skrammen is looking town at all I'm just way more scared that he might actually be town and my feared scenario 2) from earlier on is the right one. I'm not that scared on drem to be honest.
I think SK is scummier then Drem but both are on my scum list. I am going to be traveling for the next 4ish hours soon.
There doesn't seem to be support for the SK lynch right now but he is at the top of my scum list. So I am going to vote for drem.
Drem doesn't seem to be trying to get info, most of his posts are fluff and semi emotional reactions to other things. Also during day Toad and Drem had an interaction which was fairly odd. Both of them voted for each other and a little while later just unvoted each other. Very odd behavior. I am not sure if it scum or not, it is just odd behavior.
On November 05 2011 07:26 Zanfada wrote:
People I like are mafia or seem scumish to me Toad – Every town that has died has problems him, it is hard to believe it is a coincidence. Defending the hyshes bandwagon Drem – for day 1 stupidness, but looking at his day 2 stuff I am getting more of a town vibe, still on my watch list though, the hysh bandwagon saved his life imo something to look into Skram – Still on my watch list from day one, he froze up under pressure on day 1 and night 1. He didn’t really start posting again till the hysh bandwagon
On November 07 2011 07:19 Zanfada wrote: I think SK is scummier then Drem but both are on my scum list. I am going to be traveling for the next 4ish hours soon.
There doesn't seem to be support for the SK lynch right now but he is at the top of my scum list. So I am going to vote for drem.
Drem doesn't seem to be trying to get info, most of his posts are fluff and semi emotional reactions to other things. Also during day Toad and Drem had an interaction which was fairly odd. Both of them voted for each other and a little while later just unvoted each other. Very odd behavior. I am not sure if it scum or not, it is just odd behavior.
People I like are mafia or seem scumish to me Toad – Every town that has died has problems him, it is hard to believe it is a coincidence. Defending the hyshes bandwagon Drem – for day 1 stupidness, but looking at his day 2 stuff I am getting more of a town vibe, still on my watch list though, the hysh bandwagon saved his life imo something to look into Skram – Still on my watch list from day one, he froze up under pressure on day 1 and night 1. He didn’t really start posting again till the hysh bandwagon
##Vote Drem903
At that point in time I was very suspicious of drem and he suddenly said something along the lines "well and that makes is 6 townies vs 4 mafias which makes it even harder to get a majority". I figured a mafia would know how many mafias are in this game. However given what I posted today I think he might be tricking us. That's why I unvoted instantly.
##Vote toadesstern sermo's reasoning is very good he has jumped on every bandwagon and has played a little scummy and weird the entire game
the reason I have not been posting 1) my computer is broken so I have to use my phone and 2) i havent had much to add and 3) I have lost my beginning energy because this game is a little more boring than I thought it was going to be, obviously this is in part due to my inactivity. I might ask for a sub soon.
3 for Drem, 3 for Toad, and a random vote from Harbinger on xsxksdkds.
How many people haven't voted? And I implore Harbinger to pick either one of them. I think voting Toad gives us far more information than voting Drem, but if we sit around with a no-lynch again we're going to be in trouble. Still waiting for an explanation to the xkskskcxkfd vote as well. At the moment it just looks like you're deliberately blocking a lynch for one reason or another.
Alright, back again, but probably not for too long unfortunately.
First, to respond to Sermokala:
HarbingerOfDoom He seems really experienced. or hes putting way too much effort into being a "veteran" townie and has been leading a lot of the lynches I think to this point. With all of them being wrong and poorly supported I don't trust him and I think more people should be questioning him. He has too much confidence I feel for someone trying to find out whos going to kill him and I don't like that. He is the first to post and apologies for starting the wagon that killed hy? hy said that toad was scum and accused hod and was cast away for this.
In regards to the part of leading a lot of lynches and all of them being wrong...we have had one lynch. If you think my case against Hyshes was poor, you're entitled to think that, but I believe it was a pretty strong case, and his subsequent martyrdom didn't help lower the suspicion at all. Yes, I was also one of the first people to pressure Skrammen, but we still can't say for sure whether or not he is scum, although I am now rather 50/50 on him. That case was certainly not the strongest, but at a time when most people had less than 10 posts to their name, and some as few as 2, I don't know how strong of a case you'd expect to have. For apologizing regarding the Hyshes lynch, I apologized because it greatly reduced our chances of winning and I was obviously largely responsible for that, seems reasonable to me...? As for hyshes accusing me of being scum, that is a complete lie. I challenge you to find a post where he does. I'll give you a hint: he never does. He called my argument against him a wall of shit, but he never once FOS'ed me or accused me of being scum. As for the confidence, it takes a majority to get a lynch, no-lynches are bad for town, you try convincing people without presenting your case confidently and let me know how that works for you. Additionally, I would like to remind you that you have addressed 0 of my questions/concerns regarding your case on Toad.
In regards to Bunneh, he voted with me on one lynch, the Hyshes one, he voted toad day one. The only person that didn't vote for Hyshes (besides Hyshes himself, although he tried to) is Ciry, so I think any argument based on that day's voting is an incredibly weak argument. As for me not calling him out at all: + Show Spoiler +
@Bunneh I thought you were going to look into my post history and make a statement regarding it? Am I not special enough for that? :-(
Bunneh: I'm going to keep pestering you until you do post that analysis of me. Empty promises of analysis won't fly on my watch.
Continuing with my usual information requests... Zanfada and xsksc, I would be interested in hearing your reads on each other, as well as an explanation of the read of course. Same for Zanfada and Bunneh.
I know you joined this game late, but this is your second major post that I think has really distorted some things, or in this case contained an outright lie regarding Hyshes accusing me. (See my post regarding your Toad accusation for another concern of distortion). Read the thread carefully and try to make sure your statements are accurate before posting them.
WEll at this point, a vote for Chocolate or SK won't happen, and those are the people i've been most suspicious of. Going to look at Toad a bit more, but honestly i just don't know if he's scum or not.
The only really scummy thing that stood out to me was encouraging blues to post more frequently on day 1, and then being sure that we had a hero medic on night 2. But the thing is even if he was mafia, how could he know if we actually had a medic or any other blue? He really can't, so that's not really scummy at all.
From there, the only other thing is that his posts have a lot of fluff, and just seem to kind of meh. They do drive discussion, but a good portion of it is discussion against him, (although it has contributed to discussion of other major suspects).
So when it comes down to a vote, i guess we need to vote based on suspicion and what would give us the most information.
so ##vote toadesstern
some people have defended him, others have been a lot more active in accusing him. If he's red, we have a good idea who else is red, if he's green... then i guess i'm dead next since i seem to be the other prime suspect on everybody's list.
On November 07 2011 08:31 IMABUNNEH wrote: 3 for Drem, 3 for Toad, and a random vote from Harbinger on xsxksdkds.
How many people haven't voted? And I implore Harbinger to pick either one of them. I think voting Toad gives us far more information than voting Drem, but if we sit around with a no-lynch again we're going to be in trouble. Still waiting for an explanation to the xkskskcxkfd vote as well. At the moment it just looks like you're deliberately blocking a lynch for one reason or another.
I think you're totally wrong here to be honest. A lynch on me gives us ZERO information if I flip green. If I flip red it's obviously awesome for you as everyone flipping red would be. However if I flip green you just can't say "well let's target everyone who target toad" because pretty much everyone here once thought I'm mafia although most people stopped thinking that way after day1. The only reason people still want to lynch me is because of that vote mafia kill on risk and that lynch on hyshes. Let's be honest. We ALL thought that risk kill was weird and noone knew why they went for him so I am fine the reasoning behind it to try and get town back on me again. It's a towniekill + town is back on me. Everyone else would be just a townie kill. Therefore risk was the best possible kill for them at that point in time if you believe I am green. If you believe I am red mafia played stupid and would be better off killing someone like cyri or harb imo. And well that hyshes lynch was just weird. I can't blame ANYONE for going after hyshes after what he did and I still hope you don't blame me for going after him as well.
As for my vote, as the strikethrough indicates my girlfriend returned in the middle writing that post, so it was less than complete. The short version of my case on him is: has contributed rather little to the discussions, has made a good number of filler type posts to appear. Votes Skrammen after calling out only Toad and Zanfada for suspicion day 1, trying to blend in? Or did he somehow have a change of heart? Loves mentioning time-zone difficulties as often as possible. Basically nobody has accused him, where any one else lurking that I have suspicion of has been called out for lurking by multiple people. It's easier to slip by if 2 other people want you to be able to slip by.
As mentioned earlier, I have no intentions of blocking a lynch, but I figured maybe my vote alone would be enough to make xsksc talk a bit more which was better than nothing.
Brief explanation of Drem vote: He's been playing the newbie card really hard all game. Granted this is a newbie game, but his 'mistakes' have always had the effect of helping out scum, whether it be blocking a lynch, or spreading misinformation regarding the town/mafia balance. He also originally says he doesn't have a good reason as to why he didn't vote Skrammen, then later says he didn't because he was worried a mis-lynch would have been much worse for town than a no-lynch was. Why would he go back and change his mind on this?
Why I don't really like the lynch on him and would much prefer xsksc, Chocolate, or Skrammen: As I mentioned earlier, everyone seems to be fine with this guy dying. Either he is being set up for a bussing, or he is clean.
Sorry I've been rather busy the last ~40 hours or so and my approach to this lynch have been more half-assed than I would like, sometimes real life happens, even to us nerds.
@Toad I think I wasn't a large enough threat day 1, as I had a bit of suspicion thrown on me as well. Ciry was a decent target, but they couldn't know if there was a medic and he was the only one that it made sense to protect. Day 2 I'd be willing to guess that they did try for one of us and our medic blocked it. Also if you flip red I'd be guessing plenty of people would be much more open to going after me considering I've defended you as being town in my opinion. Your reads since day 2 just line up too well with mine for me to think you are actually scum, so if you get lynched and somehow flip red, I'll be as surprised as Sermokala will be if you flip green.
Oh just something that came to my mind as well: Consider mafia is probably aware of their situation. If you guys lynch a townie you on lylo the next day and about to lose the game. Mafia is probably trying to get us lynch a townie right now. Now look at those people who we believe are most likely town and those who are somewhere inbetween or on peoples mafia top-5 list. People like harb are voting for drem, while those people who are an issue right now are voting for me. Is that a coincidence?
I voted skrammen day 1 because a vote on Zanfada would have been a wasted vote in that situation.
As for me mentioning time zones as often as possible, I don't really get your point there. I mention when I'll be on next/if I'm not going to be on a certain time... is this what you mean? I don't see the harm in letting people know when I'm not around, hell, you're using that as a reason to back up your vote?
Also, I don't think I've been lurking or posting filler. Every day so far I've kept you up to date with my FoS list, reads etc. Sure I don't spam as much as toad for example, but I'm letting you guys know what I think.
crap a bunch of spelling mistakes on those two most recent posts. Have to go to bed in 20 mins or something like that so I'm really rushing right now If somethings unclear please ask me NOW. Sometimes there's words like "are" missing somewhere but I think it's stil readable :p
Brief explanation of Drem vote: He's been playing the newbie card really hard all game. Granted this is a newbie game, but his 'mistakes' have always had the effect of helping out scum, whether it be blocking a lynch, or spreading misinformation regarding the town/mafia balance. He also originally says he doesn't have a good reason as to why he didn't vote Skrammen, then later says he didn't because he was worried a mis-lynch would have been much worse for town than a no-lynch was. Why would he go back and change his mind on this?
Because "no lynch, is better than a unsuported lynch" doesn't seem like a good reason in terms of this type of game. So i'm not going back on anything. Multiple people asked, so i expanded up on it a bit more so that they would have a satisfactory answer. It was not a good reason, but i had one.
Also, how does spreading misinformation work when i was almost immediately corrected, and seemed to be the only one who made this mistake? Even then, i just said it'd be hard to get a majority, which was true until hyshes martyred himself for no reason.
Also, as an aside, the thing about playing the newbie card. It was never brought up until i screwed up with he number of mafia. I still dont' get where i'm playing the newbie card, so some more info on that would actually be nice.
Ninja'ed by toad to some extent, but to anyone thinking Ciry and I are town, it takes all but one town vote to lynch without scum help, so ask yourselves, do you think the entire rest of town is voting Toad right now?
On November 07 2011 09:15 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: Ninja'ed by toad to some extent, but to anyone thinking Ciry and I are town, it takes all but one town vote to lynch without scum help, so ask yourselves, do you think the entire rest of town is voting Toad right now?
Brief explanation of Drem vote: He's been playing the newbie card really hard all game. Granted this is a newbie game, but his 'mistakes' have always had the effect of helping out scum, whether it be blocking a lynch, or spreading misinformation regarding the town/mafia balance. He also originally says he doesn't have a good reason as to why he didn't vote Skrammen, then later says he didn't because he was worried a mis-lynch would have been much worse for town than a no-lynch was. Why would he go back and change his mind on this?
Because "no lynch, is better than a unsuported lynch" doesn't seem like a good reason in terms of this type of game. So i'm not going back on anything. Multiple people asked, so i expanded up on it a bit more so that they would have a satisfactory answer. It was not a good reason, but i had one.
Also, how does spreading misinformation work when i was almost immediately corrected, and seemed to be the only one who made this mistake? Even then, i just said it'd be hard to get a majority, which was true until hyshes martyred himself for no reason.
Also, as an aside, the thing about playing the newbie card. It was never brought up until i screwed up with he number of mafia. I still dont' get where i'm playing the newbie card, so some more info on that would actually be nice.
you just mentioned it a lot. Look up my those posts I quoted earlier. And that's just those who are suspicious. I'm pretty sure I found a couple phrases along the line "well yeah, but this is my first game so dunno/ I'm noob". I can't ensure it right now since I did not quote them but I'm pretty sure I read that sometimes while going through your history and that is a common mafia tell. However in a noobgame it really is a not only a common mafiatell but also a commong townie tell as well :p The problem with your posts is that one post where you said that zanfa did not have to post stuff because everyone should know what he just posted, because everyone had to read the first post in our thread. And that's just nothing like your usual posts that involve yourself making mistakes like not knowing how many mafias this game has. Also as mentioned earlier, those mistakes turned out to help you all the time.
Sorry, that was a fuck up. What i meant to say was: since 2 of the 3 people i think are town are voting against me, i have to say no, the rest of the town isn't voting toad. I wouldn't' even be voteing toad if it wasn't for the fact that the last time i blocked a lynch caused me a shit load of problems, and no one else on my list is a viable target atm. Toad is someone that i never had a read (somewhat suspicious of, but not very), and i can't vote for myself. So i'm kind of at an impass.
You're the last one my list of people I am willing to lynch, but I think scum influence is winning out and I'll take a 30% chance of hitting scum right now over a 0% in a blocked lynch or the maybe 5% I'm willing to give to Toad being scum. Either way I am feeling town is fucked at this point, but might as well keep trying :-/ As for the newbie thing:
Are you able to change you're vote after you have voted?
If you're not able to change you're vote, then we also have to be very suspicious of zanfada. We both randomly chose a person to try and encourage discussion, but he actually voted. If you can't change you're vote, then that seems suspicious to me, as he seems in a hurry to lynch someone (anyone). If you can change you're vote, then it's no big deal, but it's still something to consider.
you know, if you guys want to lynch me for having shitty reading comprehension and screwing up the lynch day 1 for not realizing there were only 3 mafia.... then i would not blame you.
If Rammen was town, then we would have ended up losing two townies on day 1, leaving us with a bare majority (we would have 6 out of 10 people), which means every one of us would have to agree. The risk is that if one or two mafia make even an ok case, some town may agree with them and then we get split vote once more.
I guess i don't honestly have a good reason as to why i did not vote for SKrammen in the end.
Bad townie play? possibly. Even worse mafia play? i would believe so.
No lynch is amazing for scum day one, deprives town of almost all information, check out the team melee mini mafia and note that they all agree that they must lynch day 1, and the setup isn't too different.
No lynch is amazing for scum day one, deprives town of almost all information, check out the team melee mini mafia and note that they all agree that they must lynch day 1, and the setup isn't too different.
That's also an awesome answer to all those who tend to say I'm inconsistent. I just said the very same thing all time on day1. Go ahead and look it up. I was the guy saying that nolynch is the worst possible thing for townie on day1 (except for a 100% townie kill but since I only know my own 'status" for 100% that's never going to happen) and I kept telling you guys that we desperatly needed a lynch. So yes, I changed my votes from time to times (also check other games, that's actually not uncommon at all...) to ensure us a vote from my part on both days: Day 1 Skrammen and day2 hyshes once he went emo.
Are there enough people on/will be on before the deadline to make a push for a lynch on chocolate instead? I know he was at least on the suspicion list of a number of people. Alternately, enough Toad/Drem people willing to switch to Skrammen to make that happen instead?
Have to go very soon, I'll make sure I check in once before the deadline via phone to change votes if needed. I'd rather not lynch Drem if I can get one of my other choices on the list, so gogogogogo if you want another target. (Also, at least I won't give you shit about not lynching Toad as I think that is a scum-backed lynch)
I would be willing to swap to skrammen or choc. Skrammen looks about equally scummy as drem however if he DOES flip green I'm scared that people think I have to be red which is the reason behind my vote on drem over skrammen :p I still don't know what to say about choc and honestly I'm not sure if he's going to survive this day because he might be modkilled. But I need to know it right now (that's 0-15 minutes I'd say?) because I have to wake up in 7 hours again and I can't stay up much longer.
so we basicly got skrammen drem and me who are willign to change to choc, although I'm just guessing drem's up for changing his vote because he hasn't answered that question yet. I don't think if that really is something awesome to be fair because I'd say 2 out of us are mafia right now (just a gut feeling) :p
Summary: xsksc is willing to vote for either drem, skrammen or choc (if he has to) Toad is willing to vote for skrammen, drem or choc Skrammen is willing to vote for drem, choc or Toad Harb is willing to vote for drem, choc, Skrammen
Wait so why are you all lynching me? Because I went a little inactive? Hopefully my computer problems are fixed now, but that's not it. I am honestly curious as to why you all want to lynch me. If you all read sermo's post detailing why he wanted to lynch toad then it should make complete sense.
Actually I'm waiting for harb to make that start. As mentioned I guess someone in here is mafia and I don't know for certain which of us is that one guy. Since I'm quite sure harbs town I'd rather follow his vote than someone who's on that list as well although I can understand that skrammen is trying to get himself saved right now. If there's no post from harb until 10:10 TL.net time I'm going to vote for whoever got the most because again, I have to wake up in 6 hours and a half and usually should be asleep at this point in time mondays.
I'm willing to take a risk on Chocolate (who as I've made my post seemed to have a LOT of empty, no commitment statements; and would take a possible mafia trying to hide as a no-read) or on Skrammen, who still appears scummy but not as badly as Drem. I believe I haven't voted yet, so if HoD's here and can get enough votes for a lynch, we should go for it.
HoD, do you think a Toad lynch is necessary? I don't like it right now, but I can vote for him if we can't get a swing going.
K guys good reasoning you have this in the bag. Harb better be quick. If you all lynch me for no reason I will be pretty angry. But, we will also have a good idea of who could be mafia. Over all though the lack of any reasoning from 2 people is suspicious.
Ah balls, I'm not going to let a no vote go through. In 15 mins I go to bed. If there's enough votes on Chocolate, I'll go for it. It's a risk, but a lynch is better than a no-lynch.
On November 07 2011 10:08 Chocolate wrote: K guys good reasoning you have this in the bag. Harb better be quick. If you all lynch me for no reason I will be pretty angry. But, we will also have a good idea of who could be mafia. Over all though the lack of any reasoning from 2 people is suspicious.
There's some reason for it; as I've read your day 1 activity and later on, you're quite a null-tell, as you haven't been really connected to anyone else for most of the game. You haven't attacked nor defended people actively as much as others. A null-tell is one of the few things this town has to avoid now.
On November 07 2011 09:57 Chocolate wrote: Wait so why are you all lynching me? Because I went a little inactive? Hopefully my computer problems are fixed now, but that's not it. I am honestly curious as to why you all want to lynch me. If you all read sermo's post detailing why he wanted to lynch toad then it should make complete sense.
well, you also never followed up on your promise:
On November 03 2011 09:44 Chocolate wrote: Drem seems almost absolutely mafia to me. Tomorrow evening I will try to compile a list of who everyone has accused/fosd to make it easier for us to identify who the mafia are, or at least who is ignoring who. TBH drem seems suspicious because he is throwing accusations everywhere and the main people he is accusing are the ones who are after him. Yes I am very suspicious of hacklebeast, especially since he hasn't posted since the end of the last day, but I don't see much more to be suspicious of because he has only two posts of any substance.
I know you keep saying you're having computer problems, but an excuse to not post doesn't really help anyone's case, and the only way to get information is through post analysis. If a person isn't posting, it becomes suspicious. You claim to have a reason, and in any other kind of thread where you were an active part of discussion this would be acceptable, but in this kind of thread you could also be a mafia who's trying to use any excuse to avoid posting and risking some kind of slip.
On November 07 2011 10:07 IMABUNNEH wrote: Bunneh will vote for Toad or SKrammen. It's on Toad atm.
Ok that made the deal for me altough you changed it later on :p ##Unvote Drem903 ##Vote Chocolate
A question for our lovely host: Is it possible to "attach" my vote on harbs vote? I really have to go to sleep now... Is it possible to tell you just to vote for whoever harbs voting? I'm willing to vote for everyone out of those 3 (drem, choc, skrammen) and would it be possible to count my vote as whatever he voted? :p Don't want to ruin this because of time barriers
That would be the most awesome thing ever. If he votes for someone else (like me for some reason...) I obviously have to stick with my normal vote. If that's not possible (don't think you're willing to do that but I have to ask^^) just stick with what I voted
On November 07 2011 09:57 Chocolate wrote: Wait so why are you all lynching me? Because I went a little inactive? Hopefully my computer problems are fixed now, but that's not it. I am honestly curious as to why you all want to lynch me. If you all read sermo's post detailing why he wanted to lynch toad then it should make complete sense.
On November 03 2011 09:44 Chocolate wrote: Drem seems almost absolutely mafia to me. Tomorrow evening I will try to compile a list of who everyone has accused/fosd to make it easier for us to identify who the mafia are, or at least who is ignoring who. TBH drem seems suspicious because he is throwing accusations everywhere and the main people he is accusing are the ones who are after him. Yes I am very suspicious of hacklebeast, especially since he hasn't posted since the end of the last day, but I don't see much more to be suspicious of because he has only two posts of any substance.
I know you keep saying you're having computer problems, but an excuse to not post doesn't really help anyone's case, and the only way to get information is through post analysis. If a person isn't posting, it becomes suspicious. You claim to have a reason, and in any other kind of thread where you were an active part of discussion this would be acceptable, but in this kind of thread you could also be a mafia who's trying to use any excuse to avoid posting and risking some kind of slip.
Ok those are actually some good reasons. First, I couldn't follow up on my promise because I ran out of time and found out I had school work to do, and frankly I was too lazy to actually do that. sermokala did it quite well, however. Second, I haven't posted a bunch because I don't know what to say because this is my first game and there is little hard evidence from anyone i.e. there is no certain tell that we can use to find the other scum. Many of my posts were filler because I wanted to be active, and some of them were to avoid confusion. Ultimately these are pretty good reasons, but it will still be a mistake to lynch me. I understand if you do though.
crap But okay that's my last post for today, I'm offline now really have to go. I think harbs fine with a vote on choc since he asked for him first and I am still kind of scared to vote for skrammen. So I won't be able to change my vote anymore guys! Make sure you get this vote and see you tomorrow!
Well, we need two votes on this one, but I'm suspicious as fuck on the jumpers being Skrammen and Drem. I can still change my vote to force a lynch because it's morning here and I'm going to an SC2 tourney later after the deadline clears.
On November 07 2011 10:27 Ciryandor wrote: ## Vote Chocolate
Well, we need two votes on this one, but I'm suspicious as fuck on the jumpers being Skrammen and Drem. I can still change my vote to force a lynch because it's morning here and I'm going to an SC2 tourney later after the deadline clears.
Well, the options stand at Sk, Chocolate, myself, and toad. You and Har probably have the biggest influence on who gets lynched, and could probably get people on to whoever you want. I'm not really a jumper as i didn't really want to vote for toad in the first place, but i just didn't have the swing to pull people to a chocolate or SK vote, and toad was the only other person possible.
If i had voted randomly for someone else and the vote had ended up a draw (not enough for either toad or myself) then i would have been even more screwed. I had already blocked the day 1 lynch, and blocking the day 3 lynch would've just gotten my killed day 4. I wouldn't be able to talk myself out of it, i would be lynched. So my only hope was to vote for toad and have him turn up mafia.
I'm still in the same position. If chocolate turns out town, then i still die, but chocolate is the person that i'm most confident in.
Well, as I said, I prefer it to Drem (not by a ton, but I do) although I obviously would have let that pass, and I am sure as hell not helping a vote on Toad pass. Momentum seemed to be in favor of lynching Toad over Drem, so I made my offer on the voting. I guess here goes nothing? Overall I still think we are pretty screwed, and almost definitely are if we hit green or blue with this one. Sorry Ciry, but I don't like our odds :-/
Holy fuck looking at the list of jumpers makes this look bad, but something tells me we don't have time for another switch, please let this be a mafia bussing after seeing the resistance to the Toad voting *crosses fingers*
On November 07 2011 11:16 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: Holy fuck looking at the list of jumpers makes this look bad, but something tells me we don't have time for another switch, please let this be a mafia bussing after seeing the resistance to the Toad voting *crosses fingers*
This is what I was talking about man, if this ends up being a green flip, we are so damn screwed.
You should have started a case along with a vote on someone when you were doing all your PbP's earlier, you have plenty of town-cred too you know! Wasn't aware me not being able to make a big case would put us in such a last-minute bind >.>
Also, lol @skrammen starting the shift when he was one of the two I mentioned as people that I was willing to lynch that seemed lynchable. I wonder if we could have gone for sermokala...I kinda wanted to give him a chance to compensate for hackle's complete lack of contribution, but so far his main contributions have been poorly argued at best. And you know, accusing me isn't going to win any points in my book either :-P
On November 07 2011 11:31 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: You should have started a case along with a vote on someone when you were doing all your PbP's earlier, you have plenty of town-cred too you know! Wasn't aware me not being able to make a big case would put us in such a last-minute bind >.>
Also, lol @skrammen starting the shift when he was one of the two I mentioned as people that I was willing to lynch that seemed lynchable. I wonder if we could have gone for sermokala...I kinda wanted to give him a chance to compensate for hackle's complete lack of contribution, but so far his main contributions have been poorly argued at best. And you know, accusing me isn't going to win any points in my book either :-P
Oh I wouldnt go as far as call it an accusation, I just hope your instinct on this is right on target
Skrammen, I have minimal confidence. Nobody wanted my original target though. :-( I think we're pretty boned. If he doesn't flip red, and scum successfully kills tonight, I think I'd be willing to concede if the rest of town agrees with it. (Can we do that?) Although if Ciry, Toad, and I are all alive still maybe we'll have a shot. Lynch everyone that isn't us ftw :-D
So we have 10 players remaining, if lynch goes through we'll lose 1 and if we dont get divine intervention again they will kill another 1, so that makes 8 remaining, of which 3 maybe scum, 2 if we get this right. If we have 8 players where 3 are scum, there are 4 who arent, we are 2 players down from achieveing vote majority, and if we lynch a scum, we are 1 player down from achieving vote majority? So, basically, we need a scum lynch AND divine intervention?
This is all assuming no more gosu-medic and if we fucked up this lynch: 8 remain, 5 town, takes all town votes to lynch if scum won't join. At that point every day is mislynch = lose, and we get one day of no-lynch if we so chose, but then every day after that one is lynch scum or lose. Activity is key, and we have a lot of people lacking in it. Even those that are active tend to post a lot of filler unless specific requests are made. Not a good town environment.
The last remnants of the Pony cult gathered for their final stand. Through their collective might, they would try to reincarnate their dear leader GMarshal. First, they would need a sacrifice; a host body for their master's return. Chocolate was thrust upon the alter against his will. They subjected him to a day long marathon of MLP episodes and cute fan videos. By the end, there was no trace of sanity remaining.
It was now time for the final summoning ritual. A sacred act passed down through generations of pony cultists. + Show Spoiler +
Chocolate the townie has been lynched. GMarshal the cult leader has arisen.
On November 07 2011 11:31 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: You should have started a case along with a vote on someone when you were doing all your PbP's earlier, you have plenty of town-cred too you know! Wasn't aware me not being able to make a big case would put us in such a last-minute bind >.>
Also, lol @skrammen starting the shift when he was one of the two I mentioned as people that I was willing to lynch that seemed lynchable. I wonder if we could have gone for sermokala...I kinda wanted to give him a chance to compensate for hackle's complete lack of contribution, but so far his main contributions have been poorly argued at best. And you know, accusing me isn't going to win any points in my book either :-P
I actually expected people to pick up a Skrammen case; which I actually called for someone else to do when I posted that thing, he's been dodgy at the least, but I'm really torn between him and Drem on who has the scummier play. Sorry man, that three hours seems to have been wasted as nobody really wanted to pick up on the PBP's analysis and nitpick on them.
On November 07 2011 11:48 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: This is all assuming no more gosu-medic and if we fucked up this lynch: 8 remain, 5 town, takes all town votes to lynch if scum won't join. At that point every day is mislynch = lose, and we get one day of no-lynch if we so chose, but then every day after that one is lynch scum or lose. Activity is key, and we have a lot of people lacking in it. Even those that are active tend to post a lot of filler unless specific requests are made. Not a good town environment.
I'm also praying for a good medic save, but... wait I think I fucked it up for you as well. You were pushing for Drem right? I was suspicious as fuck of him as you saw in the PBP, but wanted to have a read on Skrammen before I decided who we needed to lynch. Would we have gotten 6 on him if I voted for him?
You would have been vote number 5, so as long as we could have gotten one more we would have lynched Drem. I wasn't pushing him too hard, but was certainly willing to lynch him (as evidenced by my vote on him).
What are your thoughts on Zanfada, Bunneh, xsksc, and Sermokala? Any of them you would like to see lynched?
On November 07 2011 11:48 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: This is all assuming no more gosu-medic and if we fucked up this lynch: 8 remain, 5 town, takes all town votes to lynch if scum won't join. At that point every day is mislynch = lose, and we get one day of no-lynch if we so chose, but then every day after that one is lynch scum or lose. Activity is key, and we have a lot of people lacking in it. Even those that are active tend to post a lot of filler unless specific requests are made. Not a good town environment.
I'm also praying for a good medic save, but... wait I think I fucked it up for you as well. You were pushing for Drem right? I was suspicious as fuck of him as you saw in the PBP, but wanted to have a read on Skrammen before I decided who we needed to lynch. Would we have gotten 6 on him if I voted for him?
If you would have voted for me the post would have been 5 for me, 4 for toad. From there you probably could have easily had a 6th (i don't think chocolate had voted yet, or SK).
On November 07 2011 12:36 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: You would have been vote number 5, so as long as we could have gotten one more we would have lynched Drem. I wasn't pushing him too hard, but was certainly willing to lynch him (as evidenced by my vote on him).
What are your thoughts on Zanfada, Bunneh, xsksc, and Sermokala? Any of them you would like to see lynched?
Sermokala/hacklebeast is certainly a null-read, and the push on Toad was a bit iffy in my view. Toad was looking like he was going to get lynched for 2/3 days and was an easy push, however I'm not sure of any of this being indicative of his allegiance, just not enough information at all.
Bunneh certainly has contributed his bit on pushing people, but has never been the one to directly build proof on them, with this I'm thinking he's likely to be town.
xsksc and Zanfada are harder to read, as they have both not had as much of a presence. Zanfada has had pressure on him for his Day 1 activity, but this has since faded off; and he has been contributing more than he has in his last game with me. That is a positive, but being less active than the average is still not good, with just over 1 page of posts.
xsksc has had some pressure on him from you lately for being inactive or having filler posts, and my Day 1 PBP bears this out; however he does seem to hold the strong opinion that whoever flips green in Skrammen/Toad in death will have the other being red. Also we can note that did have that burst of activity castigating hyshes late in Day 2, and starting Day 3 by responding to your prompting to his views of Chocolate (green). He did vote for Drem when he made that same post to put pressure, and only changed to Chocolate because we needed to ensure a proper lynch.
Doing a bit of re-reading, and yeah, we could have gotten a drem lynch off I am pretty sure...damn :-/
I also wonder if I was wrong in not floating xsksc as an option to switch to, you had him third on your list earlier today, and I think support from the two of us may have been enough, or at the very least might have given us more information in terms of who resists such a push.
Here's my rundown on everyone: Ciry - I'm just going to go ahead and consider him confirmed townie. If he is somehow scum, he can safely endgame me as the odds of something coming up to get me to vote against him are rather minimal.
Toad - Nearly confirmed townie for me. At the very least he is clearly willing to follow me and Ciry in voting...so if he is scum willing to follow us and bus scum-buddies in the process, then at the very least he isn't very dangerous for now.
Zanfada - Not as solid for me, but definitely leaning town. Has stirred up discussion, was not afraid to step up early with his pressure vote, play is largely consistent with how he played as town last game. Again, seems at least somewhat willing to follow me/Ciry, which means he is less dangerous, even if he is scum.
Bunneh - Very slight town leaning. He has been oddly elusive in terms of receiving pressure from others though. Depending on the night kill, could easily move back out of town-leaning territory.
Drem - Poor Drem. I don't have much to say on him that hasn't already been said. The most townie thing he has going for him is that nobody seems willing to defend him, and everyone seems to be fine with him ending up dead. I'm still split on whether he is scum that they are aware they might have to bus, or town. Upon reviewing his day 3 activities though...I might be willing to switch him with Bunneh in my town to scum lineup. Hmm...
Sermokala - Hasn't been here very long, but still managed to need a spoiler, how about that? + Show Spoiler +
They've both scum or we're all dead we don't have a choice at this point before people get paranoid that I'm scum.
First off It can't be me no mafia would go inactive
He has been dropping down my list pretty fast since he first piped up.
Also, mostly unrelated, but a closer rereading made me lol a little at this, said by Sermokala:
I'm just more sure of toad at this point. Hes been supporting the lynching of people who arn't popular to lynch which I totally think that hes doing to distance himself from the other scums and/or trying to block lynching on the whole.
When considered with this post of Chocolate's:
##Vote toadesstern sermo's reasoning is very good he has jumped on every bandwagon and has played a little scummy and weird the entire game
His day 1 activities were very sketchy, and his defense questionable at best. Since then he has shaped up a good deal. Here he is talking about Hyshes.
If he flips red we should pressure everyone else who did not vote for me hard, as there is likely to be scum among them.
Sounds like a pretty townie thing to say, and I don't know if scum would have thought to slip it in there, considering scum knew what Hyshes's flip would be. Very minor town cred for that statement. Overall, his early scumminess with his later slight towniness has pretty much balanced out to a null read for me. Being one of 4 people without at least a slight town leaning from me does not give you great odds of being clean. Hell, even if the 3 scum are amongst the 5 I think are least townie, not very good odds of being clean.
The short version of my case on him is: has contributed rather little to the discussions, has made a good number of filler type posts to appear. Votes Skrammen after calling out only Toad and Zanfada for suspicion day 1, trying to blend in? Or did he somehow have a change of heart? Loves mentioning time-zone difficulties as often as possible. Basically nobody has accused him, where any one else lurking that I have suspicion of has been called out for lurking by multiple people. It's easier to slip by if 2 other people want you to be able to slip by.
Now to add to it. From him:
I voted skrammen day 1 because a vote on Zanfada would have been a wasted vote in that situation.
If he voted on Zanfada or on Toad, the two people he had called out earlier, he would have made them tied in votes with Skrammen. He is correct in that doing so would probably have increased the odds of a no-lynch, so I'll consider him mostly absolved here, but not entirely. I hadn't double checked the timing of his vote when I posted that. Something I found rather amusing, after I clearly poke him and indicate I have some suspicions of him by posting this:
Chocolate and xsksc, I would be interested in hearing your reads on each other, as well as an explanation of the read of course.
The same goes for Skrammen and xsksc.
He seems to wake the fuck up, making sure to include a pressure vote and a number of questions for Drem in his post answering them. He also posts this as the reason for his vote: You blocked the skrammen lynch day 1, without even having a good explanation? And then when I vote him, he seems appalled that I don't have a good explanation posted with it.
Also, I don't think I've been lurking or posting filler. Every day so far I've kept you up to date with my FoS list, reads etc. Sure I don't spam as much as toad for example, but I'm letting you guys know what I think.
He has 3 instances where he has gone in excess of 23 hours without making a post since the game has started. Interestingly, his reads have gone basically unchanged since: November 03 2011 17:40 He has only changed his number 3 scum from: 3) Hyshes or some random inactive like Hackle to: 3) Someone who's fitting in well and hasn't been thought about too much, chocolate or hackle/hackles replacement perhaps. Considering Hyshes was dead at that point, he clearly had to change it...and he changes it to nothing certain at all. I'm not claiming to be 100% on him by any means, as he is largely a null-read for me, but at a time when we are down to 8 excluding myself, I'm at least leaning town on 4, and there are 3 scum left to find...well, I think you know where I'm going with this
Obviously who gets shot at a stage of the game with so few players left could change a lot of things, and posting this increases the risk of scum shooting as high up my townie list as they dare, but I want to work out as much as possible with Ciry during this night in case one of us ends up dead tomorrow. I'm not sure if scum is shooting for the medic, or taking their chances elsewhere, but at this point I think town needs to play with basically everything out in the open to have a shot at this. (Note, medic, this does not mean you should claim during the night, that'd be dumb and would get you shot) We can't risk another mislynch, so we need as much coordination as possible to avoid scum influence.
So, Ciry, thoughts? Anyone else that would like to chime in is obviously welcome to, as I have definitely said at least something about everyone.
I'm going to say that out if those 5 on me it's probably 3 mafias. Ciry is the only one missing in that list which could be interpreted as a scummy trying to figure out if it's safte to vote for whoever they voted. However given our situation the same could go for a townie as well right now. I'm mentioning it right now so that people ignore it because I don't think we got time left for shenanigans like that.
That leaves us with a list of sermokala, IMABUNNEH, Chocolate, Skrammen, Drem903. Choc turned out to be green so it's 4 people left and imo 3 of them are mafia. We just should have lynched skrammen on day1 guys... or drem on day2... or drem on day3...
Let's look at their voting history: hackle/sermokala: Day1 on Toad, Day2 on nobody , Day3 on Toad Bunneh: Day1 on Toad, Day2 on hyshes , Day3 on Choc Skrammen: Day1 on Choc, Day2 on hyshes , Day3 on Choc Drem: Day1 on Zanfa, Day2 on hyshes , Day3 on Choc.
I'm leaning towards skrammen, drem, hackle/sermokala with bunneh on a 4th place as he was unsure if we should lynch choc. Skrammen the first guy who switched votes although I can't judge him for trying to safe himself and drem's just as fishy as always. Those are my thoughts right now.
On November 07 2011 16:23 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: Doing a bit of re-reading, and yeah, we could have gotten a drem lynch off I am pretty sure...damn :-/
I also wonder if I was wrong in not floating xsksc as an option to switch to, you had him third on your list earlier today, and I think support from the two of us may have been enough, or at the very least might have given us more information in terms of who resists such a push.
Here's my rundown on everyone: Ciry - I'm just going to go ahead and consider him confirmed townie. If he is somehow scum, he can safely endgame me as the odds of something coming up to get me to vote against him are rather minimal.
Toad - Nearly confirmed townie for me. At the very least he is clearly willing to follow me and Ciry in voting...so if he is scum willing to follow us and bus scum-buddies in the process, then at the very least he isn't very dangerous for now.
Zanfada - Not as solid for me, but definitely leaning town. Has stirred up discussion, was not afraid to step up early with his pressure vote, play is largely consistent with how he played as town last game. Again, seems at least somewhat willing to follow me/Ciry, which means he is less dangerous, even if he is scum.
Bunneh - Very slight town leaning. He has been oddly elusive in terms of receiving pressure from others though. Depending on the night kill, could easily move back out of town-leaning territory.
Drem - Poor Drem. I don't have much to say on him that hasn't already been said. The most townie thing he has going for him is that nobody seems willing to defend him, and everyone seems to be fine with him ending up dead. I'm still split on whether he is scum that they are aware they might have to bus, or town. Upon reviewing his day 3 activities though...I might be willing to switch him with Bunneh in my town to scum lineup. Hmm...
Sermokala - Hasn't been here very long, but still managed to need a spoiler, how about that? + Show Spoiler +
They've both scum or we're all dead we don't have a choice at this point before people get paranoid that I'm scum.
First off It can't be me no mafia would go inactive
He has been dropping down my list pretty fast since he first piped up.
Also, mostly unrelated, but a closer rereading made me lol a little at this, said by Sermokala:
I'm just more sure of toad at this point. Hes been supporting the lynching of people who arn't popular to lynch which I totally think that hes doing to distance himself from the other scums and/or trying to block lynching on the whole.
When considered with this post of Chocolate's:
##Vote toadesstern sermo's reasoning is very good he has jumped on every bandwagon and has played a little scummy and weird the entire game
His day 1 activities were very sketchy, and his defense questionable at best. Since then he has shaped up a good deal. Here he is talking about Hyshes.
If he flips red we should pressure everyone else who did not vote for me hard, as there is likely to be scum among them.
Sounds like a pretty townie thing to say, and I don't know if scum would have thought to slip it in there, considering scum knew what Hyshes's flip would be. Very minor town cred for that statement. Overall, his early scumminess with his later slight towniness has pretty much balanced out to a null read for me. Being one of 4 people without at least a slight town leaning from me does not give you great odds of being clean. Hell, even if the 3 scum are amongst the 5 I think are least townie, not very good odds of being clean.
The short version of my case on him is: has contributed rather little to the discussions, has made a good number of filler type posts to appear. Votes Skrammen after calling out only Toad and Zanfada for suspicion day 1, trying to blend in? Or did he somehow have a change of heart? Loves mentioning time-zone difficulties as often as possible. Basically nobody has accused him, where any one else lurking that I have suspicion of has been called out for lurking by multiple people. It's easier to slip by if 2 other people want you to be able to slip by.
Now to add to it. From him:
I voted skrammen day 1 because a vote on Zanfada would have been a wasted vote in that situation.
If he voted on Zanfada or on Toad, the two people he had called out earlier, he would have made them tied in votes with Skrammen. He is correct in that doing so would probably have increased the odds of a no-lynch, so I'll consider him mostly absolved here, but not entirely. I hadn't double checked the timing of his vote when I posted that. Something I found rather amusing, after I clearly poke him and indicate I have some suspicions of him by posting this:
Chocolate and xsksc, I would be interested in hearing your reads on each other, as well as an explanation of the read of course.
The same goes for Skrammen and xsksc.
He seems to wake the fuck up, making sure to include a pressure vote and a number of questions for Drem in his post answering them. He also posts this as the reason for his vote: You blocked the skrammen lynch day 1, without even having a good explanation? And then when I vote him, he seems appalled that I don't have a good explanation posted with it.
Also, I don't think I've been lurking or posting filler. Every day so far I've kept you up to date with my FoS list, reads etc. Sure I don't spam as much as toad for example, but I'm letting you guys know what I think.
He has 3 instances where he has gone in excess of 23 hours without making a post since the game has started. Interestingly, his reads have gone basically unchanged since: November 03 2011 17:40 He has only changed his number 3 scum from: 3) Hyshes or some random inactive like Hackle to: 3) Someone who's fitting in well and hasn't been thought about too much, chocolate or hackle/hackles replacement perhaps. Considering Hyshes was dead at that point, he clearly had to change it...and he changes it to nothing certain at all. I'm not claiming to be 100% on him by any means, as he is largely a null-read for me, but at a time when we are down to 8 excluding myself, I'm at least leaning town on 4, and there are 3 scum left to find...well, I think you know where I'm going with this
Obviously who gets shot at a stage of the game with so few players left could change a lot of things, and posting this increases the risk of scum shooting as high up my townie list as they dare, but I want to work out as much as possible with Ciry during this night in case one of us ends up dead tomorrow. I'm not sure if scum is shooting for the medic, or taking their chances elsewhere, but at this point I think town needs to play with basically everything out in the open to have a shot at this. (Note, medic, this does not mean you should claim during the night, that'd be dumb and would get you shot) We can't risk another mislynch, so we need as much coordination as possible to avoid scum influence.
So, Ciry, thoughts? Anyone else that would like to chime in is obviously welcome to, as I have definitely said at least something about everyone.
At this point, the fact that HoD's activity and the constant stream of players of casting suspicion on Toad pretty much help clear them in my eyes as townies; unless HoD has been playing a crazy game of mafia brinksmanship, I'll probably find it impossible to vote for him until an end-game occurs. Toad is nearly clear as well unless there have been scum attempts of deliberately foisting him on town as a "cleared townie"; which IMO have already occurred with the Day 1 shot on risk.
Zanfada I'd probably put a bit lower due to inactivity; but his consistency of town play and willingness to put pressure and get pressured back for it are town markers.
Bunneh has not applied pressure unlike Zanfada, but he's been posting a lot more than him, and IMO is running a risky play if he's scum of jumping around and creating pressure on people.
Drem is probably the epitome of a trapped townie who's gotten his talking ahead of his thinking, or a painfully obvious mafia bus; and it's all because of that post basically telling town to lie down and take it if they get pressured, that was just blatantly anti-town.
hackle/Sermokala is rapidly descending from a null tell to feeling scummy, because he's been too eager to jump on Toad despite him looking less and less scummy up to today.
xsksc and Skrammen have tried the inactivity excuse with time-zones, but Skrammen has been more obstructionist of the two. xsksc looks like he thinks that way simply because all of his targets have lived, and IMO the Toad focus is unwarranted, but since we're still uncertain of Drem, maybe he just feels much more strongly about a Drem kill. On Skrammen however, I could just as well interpret that as "get away from putting any attention on me if he flips one way, but keep an eye on me if he flips the other"; and if he knew Choc would flip green... Sorry just rambling on the possibilities, as it's ambiguous as fuck either way.
What I can say about getting info out in the open is that I feel that Medic and his associated save list ought to hide as much as he can amongst town for as late as possible. It will be important for him to claim as late as he possibly can, because if it ends up being a LYLO, the fewer the scum members needed to lynch and the more people he can confirm through saves, the better it will end up for town, because he can just go out and claim, point to his saves as confirmed townies, and force scum to shoot at them while town lynches the most doubtful people.
Crap we really screwed this lynch... As I mentioned those 4 above and what they've been voting I just realised choc was voting skrammen on day1... That could have been an easy town tell but we had so little time left
Right now I really don't care much about what people are suggestion that actually are on those scummy-lists. Right now I'd be willing to vote for hackle/sermo (that is tomorrow) and I'm going to be honest here: There needs to be a wonder to make me lynch someone else. If we lynch someone who actually is townie we're dead. However, every single scumlist I could imagine right now involves him I guess. Everyone else could be a strange set-up like cyri just said. Think about drem and think about skrammen. Those 2 are probably the next two for everyone here which would make a list out of hackle+drem+skrammen but as mentioned: it could be a weird set-up. I am still scared that skrammen might end up flipping green. I'm not as concerned about drem but I'm definatly even less concerned about hackle/sermo. The moment he flips red I'm willing to discuss what that means for us going through his history, taking a look at what he posted about those other 3 or 4 people who are suspicious right now. I still think we got a decent chance. Yes it is lylo if our medic isn't able to get a safe but if we manage to get a red tomorrow I think we got a pretty decent idea on who actually is mafia. If hackle/sermo flips red I think we won't have a problem lynching a second mafia at all out of a possible analysis (same would be for every mafia we lynch tomorrow). So it's all about that one lynch right now.
Right having taken the time to reread everything, I can say one thing - I think I was wrong on the Skrammen/Toad thing. Not wrong as such, but wrong to remain so stubbornly fixated on Toad from day 1. Having taken a stepback and read everything through again, I'm going to step out and say who I think is what.
Town Harbinger Ciry Toad
This isn't an uncommon feeling at this point I guess, though my decision on Toad might look odd to people, so I'll explain that briefly. Despite receiving varying amounts of pressure on every single day, he hasn't been afraid to continue to stand up and make himself heard. What's convinced me the most though isn't that he's attached himself to the other 2, but that they all 3 sort of slowly came together on opinions over the last couple of days. Now either it's a FANTASTIC mafia ploy and they are the 3 scum, but I find that so unlikely at this point.
Scum Skrammen Drem
While re-reading I read enough from Toad to convince me he probably wasn't scum, doing so had the opposite effect on SKrammen. He hasn't made any attempt to redeem himself in order to avoid a lynching. He hasn't tried to pressure others, which sounds like he doesn't NEED information because he already knows it. Drem is scummy to me after a reread. He's inconsistant, and his posts lack the attack of most people, which leads me to believe something similar, he's not interested in hearing a defense.
[purple]Unknown[/purple] Zanfa xksxksd
These are 2 I simply can't place. I don't think either has posted enough to get a particularly good read from, and through my guessing above, one of the 2 has to be scum. In my opinion Zanfa has come off as more scummy to me. He's quietly slipping onto the bandwagons, and reading his posts it almost seems like he's trying to avoid creating any kind of waves that might cause people to focus on him. xkskckxk has been more committed when he has tried to apply pressure, and seems to me just like a bit of a newbie who didn't want to go out on a limb early on, as his posts have increased recently, whereas Zanfa's seem to just stagnate.
That's what I think at the moment. Who gets shot tonight is probably going to play the biggest role, as Toad said. That alone might give us the information we need.
Oh I missed hackle/sermothingy. They go in Unknown. I don't have a real read, though I'd lean them towards red rather than green, I'm not sure how far that way the lean is.
@Toad Yeah, after the vote switches we got I was increasingly unsure of lynching chocolate, but our only other option at that point was a no-lynch. If we had enough people still on/enough time I would have preferred to try to switch over again, but alas, that's in the past and cannot be undone.
This Choco bandwagon took me by surprise. It happened fast, so fast that I think all 3 scum had switched to vote for him. Also I believe that scum voted for Hysh the day before because HoD a really good case vs Hysh and the hysh suicide made it hard not to vote for him (at least it was for me). Mafia has been bitch slapping us around all game since our first day fail lynch. We need to move on. Going along with a lynch because we need info actually hurts us right now. Do not join a lynch unless you think that person is scum, it is way too easy for scum to join a bandwagon and say ‘I don’t agree 100% but we need info.’ So let’s look at everyone who voted for both. This is just about everyone. In fact it is everyone but me and Ciry.
HoD Toad Xsksc Skram Drem IMABUNNEH
The 2 major bandwagons at the time were for Toad and Drem. Which means at least 1 of them is mafia for sure. There is no reason for mafia to risk such a large vote movement without saving one of their own. Tomorrow we need to lynch one of those 2 so I am going to be focusing on them for now. If someone sees a flaw in my logic, point it out. Toad: Most of people disliked his first post telling blues to act like town and to not stand out. I never saw this as a scum hunting blues post like most others have. He has been posting a lot, in fact I think more than anyone else. As of right now I haven’t found any scum slips. There have been some filler posts but with so many posts it is somewhat of a null tell. Toad has constantly been receiving attention which leads me to believe he is either scum or scum believed him as an easy drama sponge to distract us. He had quite a few votes for him before both bandwagons. This is my major source of suspicion on him. It is not what he has done but the way the game has gone for him.
Drem: He has constantly been making little fuck ups throughout this game. It has brought attention to himself and has cleared him in some instances.
On November 07 2011 07:59 Toadesstern wrote: At that point in time I was very suspicious of drem and he suddenly said something along the lines "well and that makes is 6 townies vs 4 mafias which makes it even harder to get a majority". I figured a mafia would know how many mafias are in this game. However given what I posted today I think he might be tricking us. That's why I unvoted instantly.
I think he is more likely scum over toad. The bandwagons that saved toad also save drem. Drem has voted for me, toad (twice but never staying on him), choco (twice finally killing him last night) (known town), and hysh (known town.)
another thing is when day comes vote early so we can avoid these bandwagons and talk about who we really want to lynch, these last day votes are really hurting us.
GG scum. I logged off when the chocolate train started thining "oh well I guess we won't get a lynch tonight" and then he gets lynched and now the only hope we have is that the scum get hero blocked and the entire town gets on the same page somehow.
I'm going to go though HOD's initial response to me (I didn't get around to doing that sorry) and then the trainwreck of what happened last night. Its obviously a scum switch I feel that they just won the game.
his first moves in this very thread are counter to another instead of just srugging off and trying to elaborate on someone else.
What does this sentence even mean?
You have nothing listed as exhibit number 3, did you mean to post more? If so, why did you remove it?
In exhibit 4, if the voting for Hyshes is an implication of being scum, can you please explain why everyone else voting for him isn't scum as well? Also, does that imply you believe me to be scum for starting the case against Hyshes?
Also, from Toad 5 hours before your exhibit 5, in regards to him 'not saying' his reads:
Right now I'd still like to push for hackle the most. Drem and skrammen both are strange but I'm not sure about both right now. Drems mistake the other day is just so simple it got to be a real mistake rather than a scumslip. Also given he doesen't know how many mafias are in this game I'd sag he's not mafia. I still got a feeling skrammen might be green, I'm off to univerity now and will look this through later on.
Also, at the time of your exhibit he is voting for Hyshes, so clearly he thought Hyshes is scum as well. Don't abuse a lack of context with quoting, it is a scummy thing to do.
I accept exhibit two and the point about him being a benefactor from Risk's death. Exhibit one I don't understand so I cannot comment on.
First off It can't be me no mafia would go inactive
Expect me to drill you on everything until I have a good read on you. Feel free to help out by posting lots of your reads and explanations for them. A good starting point would be answering my original question regarding Skrammen/Toad. Additionally, I would like your reads on Chocolate and xsksc, along with an explanation of course.
1. Bandwagoning is the most effective strategy of the mafia. If you can get a train started on someone thats not mafia its worth it to organize the whole mafia to support it. His vote I feel really started the train.
2. yeah this point was legit I was trying to do too much with too little text. His first post (of many) was in response to someone else. Not only that he was countering what someone else said and then proceded to go on with his agenda I feel to get the mafia to win. I just think thats an obvious strategy to not make an initial mistake with a lot of him being nervous about starting off wrong and instead just sneaking into the game and rolling with confidence that he will win. the argument with risk I think was him making a mistake and killing him but I think he and the rest of the mafia was willing to take that minor risk to take out a threat.
3. there is no 3 It came off really werid and had some mlp references.
4. Again It was a bandwagon that you started. going with a bandwagon is bad play but supporting it and starting it is I feel a really scummy atribute.
5. I did I admit base this off of old information It was my first post and I was digging though all the pages but it was just 5 hours before I posted.
Your review of everyone was really good.
I think toad has been supporting someone else in a diversion and then being a good swing vote to help out the mafia. It was really funny with chocolate but then again if the guy who supports me is a townie and was killed that helps my case of being a townie? Both of those lines where sarcasm and an attempt at humor both of which I realize now doesn't help in this game which I do enjoy I think. God damm when we find out whos scum and if ones not toad I'm going to be so shocked. I have no idea where the chocolate lynch came from and I don't have enough stuff on xsksc to go either way. he could be a scum trying to hide the best he can or just a guy whos afraid of saying something wrong and getting instalynched.
Alright now lets talk about what happened yesterday. scum congrats you pretty much win the game. Its almost impossible for them to lose at this point and its been a quick well done game by them. coordination between them has been spot on I feel and I have no idea how they could screw it up when the sides are even.
On November 07 2011 09:32 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: @All
Are there enough people on/will be on before the deadline to make a push for a lynch on chocolate instead? I know he was at least on the suspicion list of a number of people. Alternately, enough Toad/Drem people willing to switch to Skrammen to make that happen instead?
So this starts it. I can understand drem trying to get something started that gets away from him but after his post theres a complete lockout of any question about toad being lynched dispite him being the most voted at this point. The evidence on chocolate is complety null compared to a bunch of other people and that clearly points to the scum knowing hes a town. Genius move by scum to get him killed and I think this was the last gamble for hod and toad to win the game and everyone who was on still fell for it and now they're an inch away from winning. The fact that hod didn't pick up on this with his posts in this thread further solidify him being scum for me.
On November 07 2011 09:04 HarbingerOfDoom wrote:
Sorry I've been rather busy the last ~40 hours or so and my approach to this lynch have been more half-assed than I would like, sometimes real life happens, even to us nerds.
if you really do turn out to be scum hod this wins the thread. you where the first to start the bandwagon I think and then the last to vote in it. Gosuest move yet.
I can't really nail down who else could be scum for this vote. I didn't think hod was so sure to be scum before this at least on the level of toad but now hes a lock in my book along with toad.
remember scum knows whos scum as well. as so they know who isn't scum. I know this post doesn't live up to the hype that I gave it but thats just it.
I got Ciryandor because we've clearly been trying to coordinate in the thread. Also, you know, all the me, him, and Toad considering each other as townies as stated in the thread as well. (To be fair, Toad seems to have the slightest suspicion of Ciry) Or do you think he is just completely fooled by both of us?
Also, I can't tell if you are trolling or just scum right now. Or horribly confused.
The town of newbie-ville was in a state of panic upon hearing news that the diabolical pony cult leader had returned. The time of the Pony Apocalypse had arrived and it was judgment day for Toadesstern. Death pony was not too kind.
Well, I'll be fucked. They realize bussing Toad wasn't working, so they then shoot him, judging that it's unlikely for him to be protected rather than risk a medic save if they tried shoot me or Harb.
So Ciry...should medic claim now? Would that be wise? Worst case scenario scum counter claims, they both say who they protected each night and we take a guess on which is the liar?
On November 08 2011 13:35 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: So Ciry...should medic claim now? Would that be wise? Worst case scenario scum counter claims, they both say who they protected each night and we take a guess on which is the liar?
Can the Medic protect himself?
If the answer to this is no, then he should NOT do so. Even if we mislynch today, Medic should hide because we would still have a one person majority if he managed to protect the right person. Claiming would ensure a town loss because scum will just shoot him and win.
If the answer is Yes, then it's a calculated risk. Do you reveal and try to out-think scum or do you not reveal and force them to shoot blind?
A no-lynch is definitely out of the question in either case.
Medic You have the power to save lives. Once per night you can watch a player. If your target is attacked, you will block one hit aimed at them. If you make a successful save, you are notified of the save. You cannot save yourself.
Medic You have the power to save lives. Once per night you can watch a player. If your target is attacked, you will block one hit aimed at them. If you make a successful save, you are notified of the save. You cannot save yourself.
Okay that means it's definitely a no reveal for him in that case.
And my thinking is, if we mislynch, we lose if he can't make a save. Scum will shoot for a town left that is not me or you, they should hit ezpz, if they aim for medic they hit him every time, everyone else...how can the medic be sure who to save?
If he claims, we have another confirmed townie in the medic. If there is a counter-claim, if we really can't decide, we no lynch. We then take what info we can from the night kill, and go from there in a lynch of lose situation.
Alternately, medic claims only if we pick him to be hung. If scum tries to use it as an out, real medic counter-claims, same situation as I mentioned above.
Or, another option, we no lynch today and see what the fuck is up after another night. Lynch or lose all day every day.
so 3 of these guys want to kill me. 4 of them don't. I'm guessing we don't have some grand tail in all things and their coach told them to get their ninja on. HOD and Ciry have talked up a bit and drem's been accused too much for me to think that hes actually scum. so xsksc zafada and bunneh I guess at this point. No chance of me being able to convince everyone else of this at this point so idk. Hod you got some sort of game plan?
@Ciry ....and I guess whoever else is town... Options as I see it: No medic claim -> we mislynch we lose ~80% of the time as soon as night ends, the other 20% we have to lynch correctly basically every fucking day to win it. Unsure on odds of us lynching correctly today.
No medic claim -> we no-lynch, go down to 4v3 tomorrow, hope for the best
Medic claim -> we mislynch we lose 100%. Unsure on how much this improves the odds of us lynching correctly today.
Medic claim -> we no-lynch, go down to 4v3 tomorrow, hope for the best. Unsure on how much this improves the odds of us lynching correctly vs the no claim option.
So the question is...is the info gained going to be worth it? If we are lynching today, I think I'd prefer to get a medic claim. If we aren't, we wait until tomorrow and then if medic is still alive, claim and see what we can do.
Lynch today or tomorrow, either way we'll still need every goddamn townie on board to do it.
On November 08 2011 13:52 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: Alternately, medic claims only if we pick him to be hung. If scum tries to use it as an out, real medic counter-claims, same situation as I mentioned above.
Or, another option, we no lynch today and see what the fuck is up after another night. Lynch or lose all day every day.
The medic can certainly do the claim if he gets lynch-targeted today, because if we do a no-lynch, a night kill tonight COULD hit the medic, and we're in deeper shit; simply because we don't have the night-save anymore, and we lose a confirmed townie. We'll need to start lynching people anyway, and IMO the less chances scum have to kill the Medic, the better it would be for us.
damm this medic claim tactic is a shrewd last ditch idea.
everything I see is small chances. Small chances that the medic claims small chances that its the real medic and the scum doesn't counter claim or sow just one more day of discord in us.
I guess small chances are all we got.
everyone claims a pony to their name and we deduce the scum from their pick?
idk I'm going to read though the thread tomarrow morning and see if I can get something.
Alright, I'm going to look through some things and see what I can come up for possible scum teams and see if that influences my decision on the medic claiming and lynch vs no lynch options we've got.
On November 07 2011 11:41 Skrammen wrote: So we have 10 players remaining, if lynch goes through we'll lose 1 and if we dont get divine intervention again they will kill another 1, so that makes 8 remaining, of which 3 maybe scum, 2 if we get this right. If we have 8 players where 3 are scum, there are 4 who arent, we are 2 players down from achieveing vote majority, and if we lynch a scum, we are 1 player down from achieving vote majority? So, basically, we need a scum lynch AND divine intervention?
Does that look as horribly incriminating to anyone else as it does to me?
On November 07 2011 11:41 Skrammen wrote: So we have 10 players remaining, if lynch goes through we'll lose 1 and if we dont get divine intervention again they will kill another 1, so that makes 8 remaining, of which 3 maybe scum, 2 if we get this right. If we have 8 players where 3 are scum, there are 4 who arent, we are 2 players down from achieveing vote majority, and if we lynch a scum, we are 1 player down from achieving vote majority? So, basically, we need a scum lynch AND divine intervention?
Does that look as horribly incriminating to anyone else as it does to me?
But for you who has me pegged as scum, I'd quite like you to explain it with more reason than "oh well he looks scummy i guess" and i'll answer you once I get home from the hospital later today.
Urgh. I've said from Day 1, one of Toad and SKrammen are obviously red, and the other green as a result.
But is SKrammen REALLY that obvious?
We originally thought that risk.nuke kill was potentially scum trying to shift attention away from him, since it implicated anyone except for him.
I'm going to go with the obvious here. SKrammen absolutely has to be scum. I don't know if anyone doesn't have him on their scum list anymore either. So an early vote to make my intentions known:
##vote SKrammen
Sorry to Toad for suspecting you for so long It seems that as soon as a couple more of us came round to believing you were town, you got punished for it. That makes me think the scum are the low-middle activity people for certain.
On November 08 2011 21:55 IMABUNNEH wrote: Urgh. I've said from Day 1, one of Toad and SKrammen are obviously red, and the other green as a result.
But is SKrammen REALLY that obvious?
We originally thought that risk.nuke kill was potentially scum trying to shift attention away from him, since it implicated anyone except for him.
I'm going to go with the obvious here. SKrammen absolutely has to be scum. I don't know if anyone doesn't have him on their scum list anymore either. So an early vote to make my intentions known:
##vote SKrammen
Sorry to Toad for suspecting you for so long It seems that as soon as a couple more of us came round to believing you were town, you got punished for it. That makes me think the scum are the low-middle activity people for certain.
Because at this point there are some "almost certainly" townies, and some "almost certainly" scum.
You've been suspicious since Day 1, and your posting pattern reinforces the want to vote you. You were quiet on Day 1, stepping out late to defend yourself and barely not getting lynched, but you left it pretty late to do so. Over the next day or so you were pretty quiet, lying low and staying unassuming until the hyshes bandwagon formed, which you jumped on pretty late.
Your posts have said very little in the way of content, and you haven't particularly attempted to pressure anyone. You said if hyshes flips green you'll be having a good hard look at Drem, but your post about him didn't REALLY say much. Also your posts seem to express the most suspicion of Drem, and yet you haven't committed to a vote or pressure on him since then.
Also this quote:
Regarding the Me vs. Toadsstern thing, at this point two options seem to be possible:
1. One of us is scum. This seems to be the general consensus, and we've been in each others throat for most of this game. But if toad was green then the mafia should have used this, because if Toad gets killed by mafia, I would have been lynched already. But if we consider Toad to be a mafia, the scum will not touch me, because if I die it gives you pretty good information on him.
2. Neither of us are scum. I'm not quite sure about this, but I've mentioned this previously. I think this is the least likely of the two.
You offered the fact that if Toad gets killed by mafia, you would be lynched. You also quite rightfully (in my opinion) let us know that the most likely option is one of the 2 of you are scum. Well now we know which one isn't, it's a fairly simple deduction as to who is.
If I were to make a list of people who I think are town and who I think are scum, it would look exactly like the one I did do earlier.
On November 07 2011 22:33 IMABUNNEH wrote: Right having taken the time to reread everything, I can say one thing - I think I was wrong on the Skrammen/Toad thing. Not wrong as such, but wrong to remain so stubbornly fixated on Toad from day 1. Having taken a stepback and read everything through again, I'm going to step out and say who I think is what.
Town Harbinger Ciry Toad
This isn't an uncommon feeling at this point I guess, though my decision on Toad might look odd to people, so I'll explain that briefly. Despite receiving varying amounts of pressure on every single day, he hasn't been afraid to continue to stand up and make himself heard. What's convinced me the most though isn't that he's attached himself to the other 2, but that they all 3 sort of slowly came together on opinions over the last couple of days. Now either it's a FANTASTIC mafia ploy and they are the 3 scum, but I find that so unlikely at this point.
Scum Skrammen Drem
While re-reading I read enough from Toad to convince me he probably wasn't scum, doing so had the opposite effect on SKrammen. He hasn't made any attempt to redeem himself in order to avoid a lynching. He hasn't tried to pressure others, which sounds like he doesn't NEED information because he already knows it. Drem is scummy to me after a reread. He's inconsistant, and his posts lack the attack of most people, which leads me to believe something similar, he's not interested in hearing a defense.
[purple]Unknown[/purple] Zanfa xksxksd
These are 2 I simply can't place. I don't think either has posted enough to get a particularly good read from, and through my guessing above, one of the 2 has to be scum. In my opinion Zanfa has come off as more scummy to me. He's quietly slipping onto the bandwagons, and reading his posts it almost seems like he's trying to avoid creating any kind of waves that might cause people to focus on him. xkskckxk has been more committed when he has tried to apply pressure, and seems to me just like a bit of a newbie who didn't want to go out on a limb early on, as his posts have increased recently, whereas Zanfa's seem to just stagnate.
That's what I think at the moment. Who gets shot tonight is probably going to play the biggest role, as Toad said. That alone might give us the information we need.
Nothing done since that post has shown me that there's any variation to that. My suspicions that Toad is actually green were made known along with that of one or 2 others (I think) not too long before his death. I get the feeling he was originally planned as a bandwagon lynch if people started getting it right, with a good number (as evidenced by the Chocolate days initial votes) of people thinking he was scum. When people started coming round to the idea he wasn't, he was immediately pinged off as one of the biggest threats to any scum. Especially as his case was on Drem and SKrammen, both people I have on my "they're scum" list. I find that an unlikely coincidence. If you're scum the risk.nuke kill makes sense (of course you wouldn't kill someone defending you), and the Toad kill later in the game makes sense for reasons I already explained.
I'm more convinced than I am about anyone else anyway. Also note that your arguments against votes and suspicions have MOSTLY been "I think that argument is weak", without really explaining why it's weak, or why your arguments are stronger.
@Bunneh If you could elaborate a bit on your change of heart regarding toad that would be appreciated. I am obviously a bit skeptical of it considering it came after the lynch on him fell apart, and was also already partway through the night. (read: You could be scum that decided to shoot him, but to come out in favor of him before doing so)
1) Assuming I stand by my idea that either SKrammen or Toads had to be a mafia, then if I make the decision that SKrammen seems far more scummy than Toads to me, then it eliminates Toads as a red.
2) Toads has been a suspect since day 1, I've pressured him as have others basically every day, and he hasn't once baulked under the pressure. He's maintained composure, and given fully reasoned answers when something has been asked of him. SKrammen practically disappeared while under pressure, and seems to struggle to answer reasonably basic attempts to probe him without resorting to "Your argument sucks" (paraphrasing) type responses.
3) Toads appeared to have the trust of both yourself and Ciry. We know for a fact now that all 3 of you weren't scum buddies rising to the top. Ciry and Toads both bring experience, though I can't remember if you're newbie or not, and I would assume that more seasoned players would have definite reasons in their mind to "trust" someone. I identified you as someone I thought was probably town a while back. Toads was confident about both you and Ciry, and as he has flipped green, and the 3 of you were more or less voting together before that, logic follows that you're PROBABLY safe bets between the 3 of you.
4) Toads has got votes wrong, so has SKrammen. But Toads made much more effort to explain his votes and try and get people to see his point of view. SKrammen hardly does that at all, instead making a vote or a choice without that much to back it up.
The decision came as I was learning that the mafia were likely to be below that top level of activity. risk.nuke was active and attacking people, he died. Toads was active and doing so, he died. Toads was smart enough I reckon not to risk shooting risk even as a double/whatever bluff, and did a lot to provoke people into talking. At the time I was changing my opinion, it was when I decided that I thought Toads was playing far to risky to be scum, I didn't think a red would REALLY be that Balls of Steel in his play.
I'll note that I never REALLY intended to finish with my vote on Toads that day. I didn't want to drop what had been my prime suspect without forcing him to respond to votes first. Before the massive hyshes train, I liked and approved of the way he was posting.
2. HarbingerOfDoom town 4. Zanfada town 5. xsksc 6. Ciryandor town 7. sermokala Replaced hacklebeast 8. Skrammen 10. Drem903 11. IMABUNNEH town
If either HoD or Ciry are not town we are fucked. I have looked over their posts and don’t see anything wrong with them right now. With that, everyone has put them in town category. Bunny has been post much more and my read on him has changed to probably town. Everyone has been suspicious of Drem and Skram for days. Day 1 Day 2 Dy 3 Skrammen choco; drem, hysh; toad, choco; Drem903 zan; toad, choco, hysh; toad, choco;
Drem has only voted for known green. I am 100% sold on him being scum. Also his so numerous mistakes seem to be a ploy to play the noob card to avoid suspicion.
Skram has voted for known town except his vote for drem + Show Spoiler +
On November 03 2011 10:37 Skrammen wrote: @Toadsstern
The reason for this is that at that point, bunneh and risk were defending me, and thus me flipping would be bad news for them. Perhaps pretty redundant but still true.
So lets think about it. Risk turned out to be green. If I were a red, how would I benefit from his death? He blocked my lynch, and he seemed pretty adamant about my affiliations. Now that he's gone it might reinforce any suspicions you have of me or toad, which is exactly what the scum wants, they want either of us lynched on day 2.
Your vote for Drem earlier was a vote for the sake of voting, nothing solid to go on. Your unvote was also on very poor grounds.
What I do think of this situation is that me and toad are just two townies pointing fingers at each other. I've not removed you from my list of people to look at, but at this point in time, I do not think you are a scum. You're pointing fingers at basically everyone in this game, which is either poor mafia play or good townie play.
At this point its obvious that either one of us is a scum, or none of us.
I do not think there would be more than 1 mafia voting for me. Risk voted Toadsstern and we know he turned out to be town. Hacklebeast also voted for him, and so did bunneh. But what if we consider hyshes and drem's vote on Zanfada to be a safe-vote, so to speak? Or do you think this is very poor mafia play? At this point im not sure, but im pointing my finger on drem. + Show Spoiler +
the people i've accused genuinely accused: Zanfada (not great reasoning, but it was only my first day, and he just seemed suspicious), SKrammen, YOU, hackle, and Toad.
If we say that he would not accuse a fellow mafia, there is stil chocolate, bunneh, hyshes, ciry, xskcx and HoD left.
Now, I believe there is somthing there worth investigating.
Of those 5 Toad and SK are the one's i've been constant about, and toad is the only one to make any real accusations against me. Zanfada i hold no real suspicion of anymore.
Why not vote me? Seems like an easy lynch. It would probably give you some answers, too. But you knew that I would flip green, and when that happened you do not want to be on the list as a scum.
1) His posts are long when a simple reply could answer the question (disregarding his analysis post on risk). As scum he's using longer posts to try and cover all possible points that could indicate him to be Mafia.
Yes, or perhaps his excuse is a valid one. I made a comment about time-zones and it nearly got me lynched.
2) The only person who would benefit from Risk's death is Toad. Now, my earlier statement on that was it could be a Mafia ploy to distract us, but that would also be immediately obvious so it could be a double trick (kill risk to get suspicion on toad, but we realize that and stop focusing on toad, and then toad is mafia so it was just a convoluted trap that could work). At this point it just gets into an infinite chain of back and forth.
Now this is interesting. You're right - it could be a double trick. Or a triple trick, or whatever. I think getting rid of risk is too obvious, and I dont think it would benefit him. Sometimes there is not a hidden meaning, and sometimes the most obvious answer is the right one. But we can not be 100% certain untill we get some lynching done. At this time, I believe Drem to be a valid lynch. Another day without a lynch is getting us nowhere.
On November 05 2011 23:21 Skrammen wrote: So, I'm just going to share some of my thoughts and consider some scenarios here. First of all, welcome hacklebeast 2.0 Sermokala. You've probably been following this thread and already have some thoughts to share with us. With you being new its pretty difficult for us to get a read on you. I would love if you could post some more of your thoughts regarding who is scum and who is town.
Regarding the Me vs. Toadsstern thing, at this point two options seem to be possible:
1. One of us is scum. This seems to be the general consensus, and we've been in each others throat for most of this game. But if toad was green then the mafia should have used this, because if Toad gets killed by mafia, I would have been lynched already. But if we consider Toad to be a mafia, the scum will not touch me, because if I die it gives you pretty good information on him.
2. Neither of us are scum. I'm not quite sure about this, but I've mentioned this previously. I think this is the least likely of the two.
We cant be sure there is a medic, yet he automatically says there is one. A scumslip?
Although, to be fair, I do not think the mafia would abstain from trying to kill someone, so we might have one. I cant be for sure if this is a scumslip or just a lack of clarification, but it does seem a bit suspicious to me.
where he constantly say him or toad has to be scum. If he was mafia then I would think they would keep toad alive as long as possible because killing toad would implicate skram so much. Skram has confused me more and more as the game has gone on. I think drem is a better choice right now, I am sure of him.
woke up at fucking 2am and can't get back to sleep, oh well.
Toad was green so..
##vote Skrammen
ps sorry for my inactivity yesterday, MW3 just came out so I've been playing it at a mates house all day we can win this guys, we still got our medic, we just need a little luck.
On November 09 2011 16:05 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: @Zanfada Scum are very likely to be willing to bus one at this point as well...they only need us to mislynch one out of 3 for a win...
Mislynch and have a hit that is not med-saved. If we have a med-save tonight after a mislynch this day, then we still have a one-person vote advantage over them. Also, I'm thinking of whether this move IF it were bussing one of their own is designed to ensure they get more chances to take out the medic... it's very unlikely, but plausible that they'd want to make sure their KPs don't get interrupted...I'm wondering whether Zanfada has a point with Drem because of this.
I haven't decided on whether a no-lynch or a lynch is better yet...but for now I am quite unsure of Skrammen.
Looking back through day 1 and 2 (pre hyshes blow-up), we have Skrammen attacking Drem and voting for him, Zanfada calling out Skrammen as well as voting for him, xsksc voting for him, and Bunneh starting the day 2 voting on him. Obviously myself and Ciryandor also called him out day 1 and both voted for him then. Now, given all that, try building a sensible scum team of 3 players with him on it. Can you do it? I can't.
My current recommendation is to not lynch Skrammen. I haven't decided on if there is somebody I think should be lynched today yet.
Also possibly of interest, here is every post of xsksc's where he mentions Bunneh: + Show Spoiler +
Yes, that is supposed to be empty. He has never done it. Ever.
And Bunneh, posts mentioning him in some way other than listing him in a vote count or asking why I voted him: + Show Spoiler +
So assuming I rule out Harbinger for the time being, we have to go back on what we had prior to the hyshes thing.
In my mind it continues to be as follows:
1) Skrammen or Toad. Only 1, but almost certainly one. Otherwise I'll be a monkey's uncle and entirely thrown through a loop.
2) Drem. More to come on that, but he's been semi-active, and some dodgy posts.
3) No idea. Perhaps Chocolate? I'd have thought possibly hackle, but my real guess is that he was a townie who just lost interest from the start. I don't have a real lead on a 3rd at the moment though. I'd like to hear more from xkxdkskd though.
[purple]Unknown[/purple] Zanfa xksxksd
These are 2 I simply can't place. I don't think either has posted enough to get a particularly good read from, and through my guessing above, one of the 2 has to be scum. In my opinion Zanfa has come off as more scummy to me. He's quietly slipping onto the bandwagons, and reading his posts it almost seems like he's trying to avoid creating any kind of waves that might cause people to focus on him. xkskckxk has been more committed when he has tried to apply pressure, and seems to me just like a bit of a newbie who didn't want to go out on a limb early on, as his posts have increased recently, whereas Zanfa's seem to just stagnate.
I know for a fact that mafia are voting for him. Which means it is either a bus or he is a townie.
I don't think it is a bus, risk's argument from day 1 still holds here. If Sk is mafia he would be defending himself hoping to draw attention and make the other mafia look like they are by voting for him it is a town thing to do. Or someone would be diverting our attention or a false medic claim.
Also it just doesn't make sense to for mafia to bus someone when they can just lynch a town and go for a night hit. They will win if we lynch a town today. Where as if they bus someone we get loads of info on their voting history, if they defended someone by chainsaw ect. ect.
And looks like the fact that I thought that Skrammen was bad has shown he's likely to be an incompetent townie... and that's a good thing for us. Bunneh voted very early, and he has shown effort in getting his reasoning out today, but it's suspicious because of this line I'm going to go with the obvious here. SKrammen absolutely has to be scum. I don't know if anyone doesn't have him on their scum list anymore either. So an early vote to make my intentions known:. If it had been stated as "Town needs to get their voting intentions known", I would have absolutely no problem with it. If he just wanted to say that he wanted his vote clear, then it seems very unfortunately worded.
However another thing to note here is that the votes after I cast mine (note the italics) came way too close together for comfort; Zanfada's suspect: Drem was the last of the lot there. HoD's new suspect, xsksc, is the 4th guy on it, following right after sermokala's third vote.
## Unvote Skrammen
But wait a minute... I've been thinking on a post Zanfada made as Zanfada has been town-leaning in his posts and responses...
On November 09 2011 15:49 Zanfada wrote: well this sucks, I am town and 5 people are voting for Skram, which means scum are voting for him, which means he is town.
Let's assume that Zanfada isn't town, and Skrammen also isn't town, but Drem is town (but this could apply to nealy anyone else of his choice). Zanfada can say this and redirect the lynch to Drem (his target) and then just shoot somebody and pray they don't get medic-blocked.
If Zanfada isn't town but Skrammen is town, he'd have shut up about it and let this lynch happen.
If Zanfada is town and Skrammen isn't then the other scum COULD have voted for him to make sure the lynch goes away from him; then try to convince us that someone else IS the scum. I DO NOT LIKE THIS...
HoD and Zanfada please comment on the LAST point. I hate being put in this bind; and you're the two guys I can trust as townies to do this.
To explain why I unvoted, I want to really think through this decision. I'm conflicted about the fact that three people jumped on him RIGHT AFTER I voted, and the people who all jumped are all in the "suspicious" end of the voting bin. As it stands, this event makes me think that there is much wisdom to HoD's drive to have a no-lynch to buy us two days worth of voting AND statements from people to determine who's scum.
On November 09 2011 18:10 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: Also possibly of interest, here is every post of xsksc's where he mentions Bunneh: + Show Spoiler +
Yes, that is supposed to be empty. He has never done it. Ever.
And Bunneh, posts mentioning him in some way other than listing him in a vote count or asking why I voted him: + Show Spoiler +
So assuming I rule out Harbinger for the time being, we have to go back on what we had prior to the hyshes thing.
In my mind it continues to be as follows:
1) Skrammen or Toad. Only 1, but almost certainly one. Otherwise I'll be a monkey's uncle and entirely thrown through a loop.
2) Drem. More to come on that, but he's been semi-active, and some dodgy posts.
3) No idea. Perhaps Chocolate? I'd have thought possibly hackle, but my real guess is that he was a townie who just lost interest from the start. I don't have a real lead on a 3rd at the moment though. I'd like to hear more from xkxdkskd though.
[purple]Unknown[/purple] Zanfa xksxksd
These are 2 I simply can't place. I don't think either has posted enough to get a particularly good read from, and through my guessing above, one of the 2 has to be scum. In my opinion Zanfa has come off as more scummy to me. He's quietly slipping onto the bandwagons, and reading his posts it almost seems like he's trying to avoid creating any kind of waves that might cause people to focus on him. xkskckxk has been more committed when he has tried to apply pressure, and seems to me just like a bit of a newbie who didn't want to go out on a limb early on, as his posts have increased recently, whereas Zanfa's seem to just stagnate.
Food for thought.
Hmm... maybe that's part of the reason he hasn't really been on my radar. I'm pretty sure you'd get similar results with me/Chocolate, me/hyshes, me/hacklesermo, and me/risk.nuke (pre-death).
To be fair, and it was brought up before, it's not like anyone has really put pressure on me either. If it was literally only one or 2 people, then I'd agree with you, but barely anyone has put any suspicion on me, and those that have have barely done more than question something I've said. Perhaps you'd like to pick up their slack if my lack of being suspicious is suspicious to you
If we go on the assumption Harbinger is town, then there's a minimum of one mafia voting here (SKram and Zanfa have not voted and voted someone else respectively). That means either SKrammen has been thrown away, or SKrammen is innocent. If he is then we definately should be looking at the people on him. Especially the last 3 votes, Drem has already been up for the lynch before. Is it tonight or tomorrow we have to vote by? I think this needs looking at carefully with the quick bandwagon.
Well. At the start of the game I was pretty sure that Toad was scum, mostly because he was writing a lot without saying much. I think Ciry has a good point regarding the vote patterns, and I am pretty sure drem is a scum at this point. I said earlier that this is exactly what the mafia wants; Toad was pretty adamant about me being scum, and they knew we were both townies, and thus they WANT me to get lynched today.
I am also curious as to why I would want to kill Toad if I were scum. You lot seem pretty damn set on that either of us HAS to be scum, and killing him would not be beneficial to me if I was a mafia.
Last minute bandwagons with HoD doesnt seem to be the way to go; so I'm going with my gut here.
1. Bandwagoning is the most effective strategy of the mafia. If you can get a train started on someone thats not mafia its worth it to organize the whole mafia to support it. His vote I feel really started the train.
Yet you readily jump on the wagon without much to justify it, and you have posted nothing where you suspect me. You tried to push for Toad, but that didnt go as planned so you nightkilled him instead, which is as I suspect, exactly what you wanted. I also see you are defending both Drem and xsksc.
@Ciry I don't know how new of a suspect you want to consider xsksc. I wanted him dead yesterday (game time, not real days) too. Also, as for Zanfada's statements which you are considered about, I am basically considering everything going on now as WIFOM and relying on information from our last lynch and earlier to make most decisions.
To be fair, and it was brought up before, it's not like anyone has really put pressure on me either.
Yeah, it was brought up by me.
I am not 100% sold on it yet, but the most logically consistent scum team for me is: Bunneh, xsksc, Sermokala. So, the three of you, the only defense I will accept is an alternate scum team of 3, with an explanation of why it is plausible.
Ciry, do you have any alternative scum team possibilities? The only other way I can make one is if they were willing to bus Drem or Skrammen.
Also, if we want to no lynch today, I recommend voting in pairs. That is, you vote for someone, and they vote for you. Two town votes on someone would mean the three scum could last minute switch and cause a mislynch and then win with their night shot. That being said, I am also willing to take a chance at lynching the shit out of someone rather than prolonging things. :-D
@Ciry If Skram is red then that is an awfully big gamble for the reds to take. They are hoping that this bandwagon heavy game does not bandwagon Skram on the last day even though our other 2 lynches have been pure bandwagons giving us little to go on voting pattern wise.
Also Skram being town makes the risk hit on night 1 make a ton more sense. Day 1 we had 2 townies fighting each other. Risk comes in at the very end and calms things down and prevents us from killing either. He points out a good argument on why Skram is probably town. Then he is killed. The risk hit made skram and toad look scummy. Then our focus is that either Toad or Skram must be mafia and we focus them further. All the posts from night 1 are saying that either skram or toad must be mafia. Looking back on it I think neither of them are scum. If one of them were mafia their scum buddies would try to focus on someone else.
Also, as for Zanfada's statements which you are concerned about, I am basically considering everything going on now as WIFOM and relying on information from our last lynch and earlier to make most decisions.
Wrote considered instead of concerned, because my mind was already further ahead in the sentence. Whee.
On November 10 2011 03:44 Skrammen wrote: Well. At the start of the game I was pretty sure that Toad was scum, mostly because he was writing a lot without saying much. I think Ciry has a good point regarding the vote patterns, and I am pretty sure drem is a scum at this point. I said earlier that this is exactly what the mafia wants; Toad was pretty adamant about me being scum, and they knew we were both townies, and thus they WANT me to get lynched today.
I am also curious as to why I would want to kill Toad if I were scum. You lot seem pretty damn set on that either of us HAS to be scum, and killing him would not be beneficial to me if I was a mafia.
Last minute bandwagons with HoD doesnt seem to be the way to go; so I'm going with my gut here.
1. Bandwagoning is the most effective strategy of the mafia. If you can get a train started on someone thats not mafia its worth it to organize the whole mafia to support it. His vote I feel really started the train.
Yet you readily jump on the wagon without much to justify it, and you have posted nothing where you suspect me. You tried to push for Toad, but that didnt go as planned so you nightkilled him instead, which is as I suspect, exactly what you wanted. I also see you are defending both Drem and xsksc.
Alright, it seems like time has made a decision for us...we either no lynch, or kill Skrammen and hope we're right. Personally, I prefer the no-lynch.
Remember, 2 town votes on the same person means scum can last minute switch for the mislynch and then if they get their night kill off they win, so nobody follow me on this vote or I'll cut you.
Heading out now, not sure if I will be back in time for the deadline...and I don't want to get modkilled, and I am fine with a no-lynch. So... ##Vote Ciryandor
No hard feelings, just voting is mandatory :-)
Also, pretty sure it is suicide for anyone else to vote on you :-D
Remember, 2 town votes on the same person means scum can last minute switch for the mislynch and then if they get their night kill off they win, so nobody follow me on this vote or I'll cut you.
Also, unless you are fine with taking the blame for a mislynch if a last-minute switch happens from scum, please spread out to one vote per person. If you feel 100% sure on your vote, then I suppose you can take the chance, but...
On November 10 2011 04:06 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: @Ciry I don't know how new of a suspect you want to consider xsksc. I wanted him dead yesterday (game time, not real days) too. Also, as for Zanfada's statements which you are considered about, I am basically considering everything going on now as WIFOM and relying on information from our last lynch and earlier to make most decisions.
To be fair, and it was brought up before, it's not like anyone has really put pressure on me either.
Yeah, it was brought up by me.
I am not 100% sold on it yet, but the most logically consistent scum team for me is: Bunneh, xsksc, Sermokala. So, the three of you, the only defense I will accept is an alternate scum team of 3, with an explanation of why it is plausible.
Ciry, do you have any alternative scum team possibilities? The only other way I can make one is if they were willing to bus Drem or Skrammen.
Also, if we want to no lynch today, I recommend voting in pairs. That is, you vote for someone, and they vote for you. Two town votes on someone would mean the three scum could last minute switch and cause a mislynch and then win with their night shot. That being said, I am also willing to take a chance at lynching the shit out of someone rather than prolonging things. :-D
I'm still very much willing to accept that either Drem OR Skrammen could have been thrown out to let the town get distracted and paranoid with them, but given that you've shown how xsksc has just been doing filler; and if someone filters him you can definitely get that feeling as well, I think there's something of a case on him.
As it stands, my read on scum team possibilities:
With a Drem OR Skrammen bus: Drem/Skrammen xsksc sermo (Bunneh is plausible here, BUT sermo feels scummier to my read versus Bunneh) [his push and reaction to Toad flipping green feel... forced]
Without a Drem/Skrammen bus: Sermo xsksc Bunneh
Skrammen/Zanfada, either of you get those Drem votes off as per HoD's suggestion.
On November 10 2011 07:52 Drem903 wrote: ##unvote Skrammen ##vote IMAbunneh
no hard feelings. Going to accept HoD's wisdom and try to avoid a mislynch.
I'll catch up with a full post on proposed scum when I haven't just got home from the pub.
In the meantime it looks like we're going for a no-lynch? I'm going to stick with the plan and trust you guys know what you're doing (I don't fully understand what's going on RIGHT now, curses be to a few pints), but I need to vote for who voted for me right? Correct me if I'm wrong and I'll swap my vote to what's needed. #unvote SKrammen ##vote Drem903
On November 10 2011 07:52 Drem903 wrote: ##unvote Skrammen ##vote IMAbunneh
no hard feelings. Going to accept HoD's wisdom and try to avoid a mislynch.
I'll catch up with a full post on proposed scum when I haven't just got home from the pub.
In the meantime it looks like we're going for a no-lynch? I'm going to stick with the plan and trust you guys know what you're doing (I don't fully understand what's going on RIGHT now, curses be to a few pints), but I need to vote for who voted for me right? Correct me if I'm wrong and I'll swap my vote to what's needed. #unvote SKrammen ##vote Drem903
No no, you're doing it wrong. Drem already has a vote on him, go get a vote on xsksc. I don't think he's received a vote yet,
BUNNEH is double voting right now, if he was scum I think he would have read the instructions for a no lynch better or his teammates would have pointed it out and he would have switched.
Ciry/HoD I am little bit suspicious of you two because mafia have been doing really well this game and you two are the best players still alive. I have no good proof of anything but I see this as a major possibility.
I have posted my views on Skram already.
Drem I have posted about already, nothing has changed with my opinion of him.
Serm came late to the game, my read on heckle was either newbie town or scum, Serm on the otherhand is all over the place, his posts contradict earlier ones. He thought toad was 100% scum, I posted my suspicions of toad but there was never much to go on with him, let alone 100% scum.
Xsksc has been lurking hardcore this entire game. I can’t tell if he is scum or not, if he isn’t then Ciry/Hod is.
So my lovely host how does the end game go? seeing how the game will end in the next night will we make our last guess's and then our roles will be revealed?
On November 10 2011 11:11 sermokala wrote: So my lovely host how does the end game go? seeing how the game will end in the next night will we make our last guess's and then our roles will be revealed?
Since you can only mean me with lovely host : As soon as it is certain a faction has won, you will get notified in the Day/Night post If you are on the winning side you MUST post some meme flaunting your superiority. Losers in this forum are always gracious in defeat and blame only themselves, never any teammates, the setup, bad luck etc .
GMarshal the sinister cult leader was concocting a devious plan when he got a tummy ache. He decided to put off world domination for a while since it was time for his nappy.
There was no lynch. You have 24 hours to submit your night actions.
On November 10 2011 11:11 sermokala wrote: So my lovely host how does the end game go? seeing how the game will end in the next night will we make our last guess's and then our roles will be revealed?
Since you can only mean me with lovely host : As soon as it is certain a faction has won, you will get notified in the Day/Night post If you are on the winning side you MUST post some meme flaunting your superiority. Losers in this forum are always gracious in defeat and blame only themselves, never any teammates, the setup, bad luck etc .
On November 10 2011 11:11 sermokala wrote: So my lovely host how does the end game go? seeing how the game will end in the next night will we make our last guess's and then our roles will be revealed?
Since you can only mean me with lovely host : As soon as it is certain a faction has won, you will get notified in the Day/Night post If you are on the winning side you MUST post some meme flaunting your superiority. Losers in this forum are always gracious in defeat and blame only themselves, never any teammates, the setup, bad luck etc .
LOL fuck you
The losing team will also be subject to a post game analysis by the kind and gentle coach, wherebugsgo <3
On November 10 2011 11:11 sermokala wrote: So my lovely host how does the end game go? seeing how the game will end in the next night will we make our last guess's and then our roles will be revealed?
Since you can only mean me with lovely host : As soon as it is certain a faction has won, you will get notified in the Day/Night post If you are on the winning side you MUST post some meme flaunting your superiority. Losers in this forum are always gracious in defeat and blame only themselves, never any teammates, the setup, bad luck etc .
I hate you all the mafia is going to win. The mafia kill someone tonight they automatically win.
You people are the dumbest sheep ever. Hod,skrammen, and drem are the mafia. GG wp
Going from 5v3 to 4v3 = town loses? I mean we'll still be in bad shape and we'll need a correct lynch...but we also would have lost with a mislynch today. If you think I am mafia, you are either scum, or completely lost. If you think I am mafia with Skrammen, you can only either have not read the thread, or be dumb. I was among the first to accuse him day one and I put the vote on him to bring him to one vote away from death with a few hours to go before deadline.
@Zanfada
Ciry/HoD I am little bit suspicious of you two because mafia have been doing really well this game and you two are the best players still alive. I have no good proof of anything but I see this as a major possibility.
Mafia are doing well because people haven't posted enough nor well enough to be elevated to the level of being considered townie. Look at the team melee game, it started after ours, had 18 people playing 9 roles, has already ended, and yet has over double the post count of our game. And yet, even that activity was low enough that a parity cop ended up being the saving grace for town. I also see no reason to consider us the best players alive. We are the most openly pro-town and active players. That does not mean we are the best. I don't know what more I can do to prove to you I am town. If you read through this thread and really think I am scum, then there is simply nothing more I can offer. As for Ciry, I obviously believe him to be town, but if he's scum then I am beyond fucked. Also keep in mind, anyone that knows their own role, and is willing to accept Ciry and myself as town, actually has more information than Ciry or myself, and can therefore make a better judgement than we can. The problem, of course, is that nobody else has the trust of town built up enough to eliminate the possibility of them being scum leading us astray. Thus the people leading are also the ones who are the most in the dark.
@Ciry How could we be any more screwed than we already are? Either we will go down to 4v3 and it will be lylo, or stay at 5v3 and it will remain mylo. Either way we need every lynch to be right. I'm getting a bit worried that Sermokala might be hyshes 2.0 :-/
I also couldn't help but notice that only Bunneh seems to care to address this post of mine:
I am not 100% sold on it yet, but the most logically consistent scum team for me is: Bunneh, xsksc, Sermokala. So, the three of you, the only defense I will accept is an alternate scum team of 3, with an explanation of why it is plausible.
The last 3 votes happened within an hour of each other. It could be that they came to a consensus to vote for Skram and then just voted instead of spreading out their votes over the course of the day. It’s a bit of a reach but it is something.
The last 3 votes happened within an hour of each other. It could be that they came to a consensus to vote for Skram and then just voted instead of spreading out their votes over the course of the day. It’s a bit of a reach but it is something.
I came to the conclusion of voteing for him a while before I actually put the vote in. how is having 4:3 any better then having 5:3? I honestly have no idea what you where thinking with that post if you weren't scum.
What do you want us all to do tomorrow? you think that the mafias kill tonight will be giving any information to help us?
again the games over no sense trying to analyze anything anymore.
On November 10 2011 15:13 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: @Ciry How could we be any more screwed than we already are? Either we will go down to 4v3 and it will be lylo, or stay at 5v3 and it will remain mylo. Either way we need every lynch to be right. I'm getting a bit worried that Sermokala might be hyshes 2.0 :-/
I also couldn't help but notice that only Bunneh seems to care to address this post of mine:
I am not 100% sold on it yet, but the most logically consistent scum team for me is: Bunneh, xsksc, Sermokala. So, the three of you, the only defense I will accept is an alternate scum team of 3, with an explanation of why it is plausible.
We can be more screwed if it turns out that scum get a shot off that kills the Medic. At this stage of the game, they'll care more about killing him than offing us two, because it's lylo and they'll want to prevent the town from getting one more day with which to actually get information. We've gained half a day and vital information on Skrammen with the no-lynch; and there's no use for them in trying to off us IMO because of the risk of medic protects setting them back even more (if one of us gets targeted by a save and they hit the same person, we can use a no-lynch strategy once again if it becomes necessary; and also gain a good chance of eliminating another null-tell player if they play this thing wrong).
As for Bunneh's post, it's interesting, to say the least, that the other two people haven't responded at all, and that at least one of them has been present and active.
I am not 100% sold on it yet, but the most logically consistent scum team for me is: Bunneh, xsksc, Sermokala. So, the three of you, the only defense I will accept is an alternate scum team of 3, with an explanation of why it is plausible.
1) Drem
2) Sermokala
3) Skrammen if they were bussing. Bunneh or zanfada if not.
Going with the assumption that HoD and ciry are town. The only flaw I see with this is zanfada wanting drem dead, so I think bunneh is more likely in #3.
If HoD and ciry are scum then we're really fucked anyway lol.
The game is not over! we still have a chance. One of the rules of the game is play to win. If you aren't scum then we need your help more then ever ser.
Tonight the scum are going to kill someone. now I don't know who it is going to be but we don't really have any solid targets for the lynch tomorrow. scums going to present a target say drem or skrammen and then if the towns not entirely voting on the same person scum can last second switch to avoid a majority lynch and win the game. Now who are we going to gamble that on? Skrammen is the closest target that we have to a scum. But you still decided that we should go for the no lynch instead. Which is a real good end game move. You know that everyone believes you and I think your the mvp of the game. yeah its a newbie game and I could have done more if I came in earlier and we could have gotten luckier with the lynches that we did do.
But this doesn't change the fact that all that no lynch did is put us in a similar position we where in yesterday. Theres no logic at all attributable to you action if you weren't scum.
I bet that you that one of the scum could claim that he was scum right now and they'd still win. Sense the town has rested its hopes on you and will follow like sheep what do you think we should lynch tomorrow? If you accuse someone thats not town then the games over. that person will just vote for someone else and the scum will last minute no lynch switch and win the game.
I'm sorry but I just feel hopeless about it. Its been really fun playing my first game.
I love how I've been labelled as an inactive and when I'm actually online there's literally no useful/positive discussion. Sermo, what's with the defeatist attitude man? We still have a medic, and if we lynch scum tomorow we're in a really good position. You still haven't posted your alternative scum team for HoD, why not? If you're town it's only gonna help, I don't see why you're being so negative right now.
@xsksc If we lynch scum tomorrow we're still in a shitty position, it just means we don't necessarily lose. Right now I'd put the odds of a town win at between 5% and 20%. If we hit scum tomorrow, I think it goes up to 15-35%, if we don't obviously we lose. Of course, that is with the assumption that Ciry is town. If he isn't, then I put our odds at 0%. As for being labeled inactive, I'd consider the majority of the players in this game largely inactive. If you wanted to help your case as town and wanted to encourage useful/positive discussion, posting a thorough explanation of your scum list would help. Helps limit the time spent filtering each player on it and reading through for interactions.
The general consensus is that I am town so I will probably die tonight. I stopped the bandwagon on skram so I am a target. Drem is scum, I am not sure who the other 2 are. Be wary of easy lynches, Scum have been getting us to bandwagon like crazy.
I have to go to class for the next 3 hours. If I am alive after that I will help but if not gl hf, it has been an interesting game.
Alright, so now here's the plan: Medic, roleclaim. Once that happens we have myself, Ciry, and the medic as essentially confirmed townies, leaving us with 3 scum among 4 players. If we can't hit scum with those odds combined with our reads, then goddamn do we deserve to lose hard. If scum counterclaims and we are not sure which one is lying...then we have 2 scum among 3 players to pick from and can ignore the medic situation. Then if scum wants to kill the medic, the only way to do so is to sacrifice their player that counter claimed.
Phew. At least we still have the Medic up and alive. HoD, crunch time for us. We have to discuss who's either a suspiciously bad townie or a stealthy scum.
A lot of posts say either xsksc or Sermokala. Sermo's been acting defeatist... while xsksc has been evasive with his answers of scumminess. With respect to Skrammen... well all we know is that if Skrammen's scum, then at least one of his team-mates was willing to bus him, if only for town cred. Drem has been that guy who's either been suspected by people or not suspected, there have been many tells about him, but I cannot place whether they're noob scum or noob town.
To the Medic:
UNLESS you are the one on the lynch block, do NOT state your role. It would be the end of us if we end up with a no-lynch and you revealed for scum to kill.
...? We aren't no-lynching here Ciry. If that happens we lose anyway...they shoot someone who is not me or you, they have 50% on the medic, 50% on the guy that the medic is probably going to protect 0% of the time.
We need to lynch every day at this point unless we want to count on the slim chance of a hero medic save. And a medic save just buys us a day of no-lynch at this point. Worth having the confirmed townie over the possibility of another save before he dies.
On November 11 2011 13:06 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: ...? We aren't no-lynching here Ciry. If that happens we lose anyway...they shoot someone who is not me or you, they have 50% on the medic, 50% on the guy that the medic is probably going to protect 0% of the time.
I was emphasizing that we CANNOT no-lynch, and what I was saying was that we cannot afford to mis-lynch. Sorry for the confusion, saw your post and was digesting it.
Medic Claims and Scum Fake-Claim (Best solution IMO for them) 2/3 chance of hitting a scum amongst the 3 unknowns (at 4/3) If we lynch scum (4/2), Medic could get shot or NOT get shot (i.e. Scum takes chances with you or me) If they shoot Medic (3/2) we can bus fake-claimer (3/1) then they have to shoot one of you or me. This will have them 1 confirmed townie (You or Me), 1 unconfirmed townie, AND 1 Scum
If they don't shoot medic but shoot 1 of us: If success (You or Me dies 3/2): We have Medic + You/Me and 1 scum fake claimant, + 1 townie and 1 scum If fail (You or me survive 4/2): We have Medic + You AND Me, 1 scum fake claimant, 1 townie and 1 scum
Medic Claims and Scum DO NOT Fake-Claim 3/4 chance of getting scum amongst 4 unknowns (at 4/3) If we lynch scum (4/2), Medic WILL get shot... (3/2) 2 confirmed townies, 1 unknown townie and 2 hidden scum.
You have the better plan HoD, I wanted to have the medic hide today so we can do the Skrammen tactic again (force people to vote, run them up, if they run up the medic, that exposes the medic and filters out who's definitely scum; if they don't run up the medic, they're forced to bus a townie or one of their own)
On November 11 2011 13:21 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: Also, those probabilities are only if we are completely guessing, which I hope we can do better than :-P
Maybe we can do a hybrid of your plan and mine, with us forcing people to cast early votes, then have the Medic pop up later in the day to show where scum could potentially have been hiding their votes... Wouldn't that make it more difficult for them to actually make any moves to mislynch?
That being said, I want to get voting going ASAP so we can make sure we get everyone on it. At this point I think scum are pretty aware that not agreeing with a lynch supported by both me and you is suicide, so as long as we leave enough time to switch to anyone refusing to join us we should be good.
On November 11 2011 13:32 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: That being said, I want to get voting going ASAP so we can make sure we get everyone on it. At this point I think scum are pretty aware that not agreeing with a lynch supported by both me and you is suicide, so as long as we leave enough time to switch to anyone refusing to join us we should be good.
If you think Sermokala is a bad idea (even if half the town think he's scummy), then just say it. I'm perfectly willing to get behind someone else.
I've been trying to lay low this game, and there are probably a lot of the more experienced players lurking this thread who is facepalming at that, because it hasnt worked all that well.
But since I am already taking a risk and probably next in line for a nightkill now, should I tell you who is confirmed townie? He would probably die next night then I guess.
I'll look at your answers once I get home from the hospital this afternoon.
On November 11 2011 19:38 Skrammen wrote: I've been trying to lay low this game, and there are probably a lot of the more experienced players lurking this thread who is facepalming at that, because it hasnt worked all that well.
But since I am already taking a risk and probably next in line for a nightkill now, should I tell you who is confirmed townie? He would probably die next night then I guess.
I'll look at your answers once I get home from the hospital this afternoon.
I don't know what to say to who you saved on Night 2. If it was me or HoD, then the double confirm would force scum to kill you after this lynch THEN target that person the next night. That will make it easier because we'll be left with at least one confirmed remaining townie (and that puts the onus on them to determine who's scum XD). You can redeem yourself for not doing a better job of coming off as townie and do your analysis while you're still alive. I am not sure whether it's good to reveal your save attempt list, just because scum will definitely get more info out of that.
This is what we have to go on, that's assuming everyone is right about Harbinger and Ciry. God help us if we're not.
The fact that nobody is arguing with SKrammen's medic claim leads me to believe that he must be a medic. If he wasn't the real medic would have stepped in by now I'd assume.
That leaves xkkscsk, sermo, Drem and myself. That means I only have one possible proposed scum list:
Drem Sermo xkssdksc
Am I right in thinking we need a lynch today, since if SKrammen IS medic and dies then 3v3 is a lose? In that case We HAVE to make sure we're correct, which means lynching someone we're certain on. The question you should ask is who are you certain of? For those 3, I'm sure their list will replace myself with them, so we have the 4 "obvious" choices, and need to cut us down immediately. We can't mislynch today. What does everyone think of each of the 4 of us? Who is most likely scum? We need EVERYONE to agree, and I want to see everyone's opinions, because that will show us who is most likely scum.
I feel that both Sermokala and Drem are scum. Sermo's words seem pretty forced and not genuine, and I've already mention why I think that Drem is a scum. There isnt a lot to go on with xskcd but he could very well be one aswell. I'm not sure about yourself, bunneh, but I got nothing solid to go on. At this point, it would be silly to assume that either ciry or hod is scum, because if they are, they are playing us so well I just might cry.
I do not at all like the deafitist attitude of Sermo, and it reminds me too much of hyshes. But I dont think he will flip green.
Saying who you protected night two can really only help town. Scum already know who is town. If it is somebody besides me or Ciry...then we have the whole scum team and we win. If it is one of us, then I suppose at least it will help remove any doubt that someone might have still. Also, I was kinda hoping medic was anyone but you since based on my analysis the previous day/how easy it would have been to lynch you, I was now confident you were town, so anyone else claiming would have given me the full scum team :-P
Well with skramen claiming medic. We have to lynch someone. I know I'm not scum so I really hope that people don't chose me. Yes skrammen you should the scum knows and they'll win tonight if we don't get one of them anyway. It would clear up a few suspects for who to lynch.
If I was scum why would I have toad killed. It would make no sense. I could just kill someone else and keep the lynchtrain rolling on toad until the game was won. I had (If I was scum) a few decent arguments and the agreement of a few people that he was. if nothing else I could have pulled out mislynches for the last couple days. But instead the scum killed him and took out my thought of who was scum. Thats a horrible play if I was scum.
@Bunneh Everyone in that group of 4 only has one choice on a scum team, so I don't care what their scum team is. Getting input from those 4 is getting 3 poisonous opinions and one valid one, not something I care to be influenced by. You were supposed to answer my request preferably before the night kill, but at least before the medic claim for it to be worth anything. Also, I'll go look more closely now, but I have a feeling you're scum, which means I care even less ;-)
Time to go filter our 4 suspects and see what their interactions are.
@Sermo You never would have gotten Toad lynched. I was vehemently against it, and Ciry opposed it. Scum is smart enough to know they couldn't get him lynched. Based on what we know now, there were 2 or 3 scum backing it, the medic backing it, and 0 or 1 townies. Your argument is WIFOM.
The main interaction was xsksc starting the day 3 voting for Drem, which nearly got him lynched. If we assume that xsksc had no reason to bus a teammate there, that means our two possible scum teams are: Bunneh, xsksc, Sermokala Drem, Sermokala, Bunneh
Which means Sermokala and Bunneh would both have to be scum either way.
So... ##Vote sermokala
@Skrammen Just saying it again in case it gets buried, who you protected night 2 would be useful information.
Well, allright then. They tried to kill you, Harbinger. I guess thats why I followed your bandwagon on Chocolate, because you were the only one I could with certainty say were a townie. This will probably make you next in line for a night kill, but lets hope its worth it.
Why do you think that both sermo and drem can be scum tho?
@Skrammen Don't forget to vote at some point :-) As for Sermo and Drem, Drem lightly calls out Hackle once when it looks like he will be mod-killed. Sermo called Drem scum in passing once but never did anything about it or mentioned it again. Neither of them did anything to endanger the life of the other, nor put suspicion on them at a time when there wasn't suspicion already.
On November 12 2011 04:48 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: And wait a second...hahahahaha, you saved me? No wonder Bunneh put off that post analyzing me, he thought I'd be dead.
No lol. I don't know if you've noticed, but I'm both not as active as I want to be (especially the days I'm doing shit), and I'm also kind of lazy. If I was scum, don't you think I would have made sure it went up before you died? If I was red (hint: I'm not), then getting it up earlier would let me play the whole "Oh my god I got him killed woe is me!" kind of speech, which would make me instantly popular right?
No, you've read too much into that. The other 3 are obviously the scum. You want me to analyse their posting to prove that it's them and not me, but people did the same for hyshes and Chocolate and look how well that turned out. At this point whether I was scum or green I could write anything I wanted to implicate people.
But protip, we know that of the 4 of us, 3 must be scum right? If you think it's me, despite me doing far more to try and help us than people like sermo, xksccsx, and Drem (who has succeeded pretty well in pushing attention just around him) then by all means go ahead and lose us the game. Or you could do the smart thing and vote for someone who is far more confirmed red than me and make your judgement based on that.
I'm also not the one who spent a day saying "OH MY GOD YOU GUYS ARE STUPID THIS GUY IS OBVIOUSLY RED", and when they flipped green, spent my next few posts telling everyone "OH MY GOD YOU GUYS ARE SO STUPID SHEEP WE LOSE NOW GG"
We all need to agree on a lynch right? At least agree on one you actually know, rather than a half-assed "It all adds up!"
Alright, so it seems that the consensus of those we are certain are town (HoD & Ciry) are that 3/4 of myself, bunneh, xsksc, and sermo are mafia. Then we have Skrammen claiming medic, which i'm kind of concerned about because noone's counter claimed, but i guess we have no choice but to go with that for now.
So of the 4 of us that are held to be the most suspicious Sermo looks like the person that everyone is going for, and i'm inclined to agree to that.
Some reasons though: In his very first post he's quick to vote for toad (not unusual) and then say with confidence that SK should be next, but what's striking about this is his closing comment:
. They've both scum or we're all dead we don't have a choice at this point before people get paranoid that I'm scum.
It's seems random and out of place that he is immediately concerned that he'll be seen as scum. If he is scum, as we seem to believe, then he already knew that both Toad and SK were town, and that both of them were held in suspicion.
reason 2:
Chocolate Gets voted and then goes on a really active streak and then goes back to being a lurker. I don't want to go on a whichhunt alone but tomorrow I think we need to take a longer look at him if we don't get a mafia this time around.
You say we need to look at chocolate more, you may not say that he's mafia but, you definitely push suspicion on him. You then follow up in you're very next post that the game is over because chocolate was lynched.
Reason 3: Your defeatist attitude contributes nothing to the town. At least 4 posts that don't say anything more thatn "scum wins, no point in playing." What kind of town would completely quit when the game isn't completely over. We may be in deep shit, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't try.
##vote sermokala
Some thoughts on IMABUNNEH:
Bunneh is also the other person that is most likely person to be mafia. Sermo did comment on Bunneh's inactivity earlier, but half of that was saying it was because bunneh is British and he [sermo] is Belgian, and the other half is just that he bandwagons. Bunneh has always been on his list of people he's suspicious of, but he's never gone into detail why (he wouldn't want to make any good points about his partners right?).
In addition, bunneh is (as of posting) refusing to do any analysis on the grounds that it is "pointless". He claims to be lazy, and he dodges the question about why he didn't post his analysis of HoD. He claims that if he was Red he would have posted it so that he could defend himself, but it's equally likely that he didn't post it because he believed HoD would be dead by the the time it would be necessary. I would go as far as to say, he never had any evidence against HoD, and only made the comment to look like he had some big thing to contribute.
Some thoughts on xsksc:
Votes with most other people on sermo, and had him on his scum list a few days back, so he's not exactly band wagoning. His excuse for not posting is that: a) whenever he's on there's nothing worthwhile to comment on (which is a pretty crappy reason, if you don't see anything worthwhile, shouldn't you try and come up with some kind of point? or at least make some speculations. b)He has timezone issues. I understand that he's European, but so were quite a few others, and they still managed to actively contribute. Other than that, i don't have much of a read on him. He has at least posted some reason as to why he voted for sermo (the defeatist attitude), but other than that he just hasn't contributed anythign. He also doesn't defend himself when harb votes for him saying:
'd love to defend myself harb, but you haven't given a SINGLE reason why you voted for me. I'm really puzzled by this, if you want me lynched why wait so long in the day without giving anyone some reasons to vote for me? I'm EU so I cant be up until the deadline, are you trying to start a bandwagon on me when I won't be online to defend myself?
So, he makes no effort because he doesn't see any reason? And this is after he makes a PRESSURE VOTE against me. in his vote against me, he indicates both chocolate and Sk (confirmed tow, and claimed medic), but says nothign about me. Only mentioning that i'm on his list. HoD does the same thing to xsksc (a pressure vote, he knows it won't gain much momentum) and dodges around the accusation.
xsksc is a hard read, and it's hard to really identify what he is. He's the only other person that could be scum (besides myself, and assuming SK, HoD, and ciry are town).
But protip, we know that of the 4 of us, 3 must be scum right? If you think it's me, despite me doing far more to try and help us than people like sermo, xksccsx, and Drem (who has succeeded pretty well in pushing attention just around him) then by all means go ahead and lose us the game. Or you could do the smart thing and vote for someone who is far more confirmed red than me and make your judgement based on that.
I'm also not the one who spent a day saying "OH MY GOD YOU GUYS ARE STUPID THIS GUY IS OBVIOUSLY RED", and when they flipped green, spent my next few posts telling everyone "OH MY GOD YOU GUYS ARE SO STUPID SHEEP WE LOSE NOW GG"
We all need to agree on a lynch right? At least agree on one you actually know, rather than a half-assed "It all adds up!"
Do we have until tonight or tomorrow night?
Argues he isn't scum. Knows we need to lynch or we lose. At the time he last posted there were not enough votes to pass the lynch. Claims to be unsure of the deadline. Doesn't vote with us on Sermokala who should essentially be confirmed scum to him before a time he thinks the deadline might be. MAKES PERFECT SENSE
Argues he isn't scum. Knows we need to lynch or we lose. At the time he last posted there were not enough votes to pass the lynch. Claims to be unsure of the deadline. Doesn't vote with us on Sermokala who should essentially be confirmed scum to him before a time he thinks the deadline might be. MAKES PERFECT SENSE
Isn't scum Read and worked out we need to lynch or lose Was unsure of the deadline Double checked the deadline after posting because realised "duh" Chose not to vote anyone just yet Still have 24 hours to vote
If I have to vote for Sermo to get a lynch, I will. If we change our mind and decide to pick someone else between now and then, I'll vote for them.
##vota semokala but only because I trust Harb's judgement. It's a vote to at least make it clear I'll be voting with what you think is best regardless.
##vota semokala but only because I trust Harb's judgement.
...what? You don't need to trust my judgement at all, and that is a silly reason to vote for him. Here are the only things that can be argued at this point that would give you a reason to not vote for Sermokala: 1) You think Ciry is scum. 2) You think Skrammen is a liar, and therefore myself, him, or both of us might be scum. 3) You are scum along with Sermokala.
If none of those are true, then Sermokala should be a vote you are fine with. Either because you are town, trust me/Ciry/Skrammen to be town, and therefore the other three are scum, or you are scum and he isn't and you should want him dead anyway. Being hesitant to vote for him and having to "trust [my] judgement" only makes sense if one of the above three is true.
Newbie-ville was in a state of panic. The mafia had picked them off one by one with little resistance. The town leaders gathered to make their final plea. Skrammen the medic, HarbingerOfDoom the townie, and Ciryandor the townie stood united, desperate to identify the mafia members that had infiltrated their ranks.
After much deliberation, they finally came to a consensus. sermokala was a traitor and must pay for his crimes. sermokala made little effort to resist, realizing his fate had been sealed. Knowing his own innocence, he realized xsksc, Drem903, and IMABUNNEH must have been the true enemies. As the noose was rapped around his neck, he smirked, knowing the other town members would soon share his fate.
With the execution of sermokala the townie, Skrammen, HarbingerOfDoom and Ciryandor realized their mistake and retreated to the town stronghold. As the town and mafia now shared equal numbers, the fate of Newbie-ville would come down to one final battle. In the middle of the night, there was a pounding on the doors of the town fort. It was Drem903.
"I'm innocent!", he shouted. "I barely escaped the other mafia with my life."
It was clear to the remaining townies that this was simply a mafia trick, aimed to cause them to let their guard down. Drem903 was seized at once and his throat put to a jagged dagger. What happened next, left everyone horrified; green blood. Drem903 the townie had been slain. But how could this be?
Before anyone could react, Ciryandor stabbed Skrammen and HarbingerOfDoom from behind. Only in their final breathes had they realized they had been betrayed.
FLAWLESS MAFIA VICTORY
sermokala the townie has been lynched. Skrammen the medic has been end-gamed. HarbingerOfDoom the townie has been end-gamed. Drem903 the townie has been end-gamed.
Congratulations to Ciryandor the mafia goon, xsksc the mafia goon, and IMABUNNEH the mafia goon!
Shoutout to wherebugsgo for correctly identifying the mafia team.
Thanks to Greymist, Curu, wherebugsgo, and GMarshal for coaching and Erandorr for co-hosting. Stick around for postgame analysis. Thanks for playing everyone! Hope to see you guys around in other games!
Meanwhile....GMarshal the cult leader observed from a distance. He let out an evil laugh, petting his cat Mr. Fluffles. The true threat was yet to been seen. To be continued,
thanks for hosting this. It was really fun I would have liked to get into it earlier and I do regreat a lot of the mistakes that I made. I hope that the next mafia game I play will be better.
Lessons that should be taken from this, never assume someone is town, and always reread your "Town reads". ^_^
As far as the people I coached
risk.nuke: You died, n1, there isn't much for me to tell you, better luck next time, but at hey, you did your job as a townie, absorbing bullets :-P
HarbringerOfDoom: Good job on consulting me, but you needed to ask the right questions, you focused too much on numbers and not enough on actual analysis. Still you did well for your first game and I'm sure you'll get better at the game, given time. For future reference, remember, there is no such thing as a confirmed townie, short of a dt/medic save.
Drem: You hardly used me as a resource, and that saddens me, what I feel you need to work on is your activity level/participation, you were considered "scummy" for a while because you weren't doing much, and that means you end up hindering your team. That said, good game, hopefully you carry the lessons learned here to your next game and the eventual pony mafia (when/if foolishness ever reopens the list)
@Gmarshal I know he wasn't confirmed townie, but I didn't start doubting him until the last day really, and at that point I figured it was too late :-P Also, I totally thought the scum team was Sermo, Bunneh, and xsksc...if I lynched the other two first, pretty sure it still would have been a town loss, just with 2 scum dead first :o
On November 13 2011 13:49 Skrammen wrote: Just a quick question, how do you scum communicate? PMs? Super-secret forum? Cleverly encrypted newspaper articles?
On November 13 2011 13:49 Skrammen wrote: Just a quick question, how do you scum communicate? PMs? Super-secret forum? Cleverly encrypted newspaper articles?
On November 13 2011 13:49 Skrammen wrote: Just a quick question, how do you scum communicate? PMs? Super-secret forum? Cleverly encrypted newspaper articles?
It was really hard coaching without giving stuff away like my own reads and stuff. I wanted so much to tell Skrammen that Ciryandor was like 99.9999% scum. Actually I sent this PM to him:
What I would do is protect the most confirmed Town member. The guy who no one is ever going to lynch.
There are two parts to this: remember that Mafia only needs to get 1 mislynch the rest of the game to win. That means they are probably not going to hit anyone that has suspicion on them since they can try to get them mislynched in one of the cycles.
Protecting someone who is largely considered confirmed Town would ensure that that person cannot be killed if they are Town so it narrows down the pool of mislynch candidates. If the person is completely left alone then that tells you there is a good chance they are Mafia. Why? Because you already chose to no lynch on a mylo, that means the Mafia night hit actually isn't important. Regardless of whether or not the hit goes through or is blocked, Mafia still only needs 1 mislynch to win. The absolute optimal play for scum in this situation considering they know there is a Medic still alive is to abstain from shooting because a successful kill doesn't accomplish anything while a successful save confirms another person as Town. If they were to play optimally they would choose not to shoot tonight. The next best play for them would be to hit the most confirmed Town member since if they are saved it doesn't matter, they weren't going to get lynched anyways.
The worst possible play for Mafia would be to hit someone under suspicion since if they get saved Mafia just confirmed a mislynch candidate as Town and if they die they removed one of the mislynch candidates anyways.
Of course this all assumes Mafia plays optimally which might be a bit of a stretch in a Newbie game. But I would just protect the person who is most likely Town.
Whether you want that to be HoD or someone else is up to you, saving HoD guarantees there is at least one person left in the next cycle that you know is confirmed Town, saving someone else opens up the chance that HoD might die but also gives you the chance to confirm someone else as Town.
I tried to just give generic advice without getting into specifics in the game.
Toadesstern and I talked a bit, mostly about what to do when people thought it was him vs Skrammen. Skrammen and I talked a lot. Zanfada didn't talk to me.
On November 13 2011 14:08 Curu wrote: It was really hard coaching without giving stuff away like my own reads and stuff. I wanted so much to tell Skrammen that Ciryandor was like 99.9999% scum. Actually I sent this PM to him:
What I would do is protect the most confirmed Town member. The guy who no one is ever going to lynch.
There are two parts to this: remember that Mafia only needs to get 1 mislynch the rest of the game to win. That means they are probably not going to hit anyone that has suspicion on them since they can try to get them mislynched in one of the cycles.
Protecting someone who is largely considered confirmed Town would ensure that that person cannot be killed if they are Town so it narrows down the pool of mislynch candidates. If the person is completely left alone then that tells you there is a good chance they are Mafia. Why? Because you already chose to no lynch on a mylo, that means the Mafia night hit actually isn't important. Regardless of whether or not the hit goes through or is blocked, Mafia still only needs 1 mislynch to win. The absolute optimal play for scum in this situation considering they know there is a Medic still alive is to abstain from shooting because a successful kill doesn't accomplish anything while a successful save confirms another person as Town. If they were to play optimally they would choose not to shoot tonight. The next best play for them would be to hit the most confirmed Town member since if they are saved it doesn't matter, they weren't going to get lynched anyways.
The worst possible play for Mafia would be to hit someone under suspicion since if they get saved Mafia just confirmed a mislynch candidate as Town and if they die they removed one of the mislynch candidates anyways.
Of course this all assumes Mafia plays optimally which might be a bit of a stretch in a Newbie game. But I would just protect the person who is most likely Town.
Whether you want that to be HoD or someone else is up to you, saving HoD guarantees there is at least one person left in the next cycle that you know is confirmed Town, saving someone else opens up the chance that HoD might die but also gives you the chance to confirm someone else as Town.
I tried to just give generic advice without getting into specifics in the game.
Toadesstern and I talked a bit, mostly about what to do when people thought it was him vs Skrammen. Skrammen and I talked a lot. Zanfada didn't talk to me.
Well I appreciated your input but honestly, i'm a bit dense. I see it clear as day what you meant now, but when I read it I really wasnt sure.
If they were to play optimally they would choose not to shoot tonight. The next best play for them would be to hit the most confirmed Town member since if they are saved it doesn't matter, they weren't going to get lynched anyways.
I was confused when they actually shot someone, as I realized this as well :-P
Until the end the lynches Ciry pushed tended to be one of the two people I was most suspicious of, so I came to trust him as a townie. Combine that with Sermokala's odd statements upon being subbed into the game (like immediately saying he couldn't be scum since no mafia goes inactive, that felt incredibly out of place), as well as repeatedly calling me scum, and that set him up to be the last mislynch for a scum win :-( One of Bunneh's posts was actually the biggest tipoffs to me that Ciry might be scum, but at that point it was too late. The post:
##vota semokala but only because I trust Harb's judgement. It's a vote to at least make it clear I'll be voting with what you think is best regardless.
Considering Ciry started the vote, that post just screamed that 1) You were scum and 2) Ciry might not be town. But 6 hours before the final lynch at lylo...a tad late to realize things :-D
So, this will be aimed primarily at the people I was assigned to coach, and to town in general:
You guys need to read the thread and reevaluate at every important juncture. I can't stress this enough. My first game (which wasn't that long ago, only like 3 months) I didn't do this, and I paid the price with really shitty scumreads. Connections were sitting in front of my face and I could've had 2/3 of the scumteam if I had just read better. Even now I notice that I often miss things. Everyone does. I missed a few things as I was reading through this game (although I'll be honest, I didn't read a hell of a lot). In the end, my scumreads were Bunneh+xsksc (forsure) plus one of Ciryandor/Harbringer. I actually originally thought it was Ciryandor but switched to HoD when I thought he said something incredibly weird/scummy. Of course, that was based on one page of reading! Proves you can do a lot with just a little. Examples:
If you lynch someone and they flip town, go back and reread the thread.
When someone gets shot at night, go back and reread the thread. Maybe you'll find out why. + Show Spoiler +
Although I should warn you that you shouldn't jump to conclusions about night kills. Sometimes they're straightforward, but most of the time only scum know why someone was shot.
If someone claims, go back and reread the thread.
If a bandwagon starts forming on someone, go back and reread the thread.
So many townies in this game just ate the misinformation that scum were pushing. Read the thread yourself and get your own opinions. Don't let them control the pace of the game. From day 1, town was misdirected and confused because of a lack of activity and a lack of thread awareness. Townies were clueless from the start because they weren't reading. I do remember that a couple people had good ideas, but they had almost no clout. (I don't remember who, sorry) Not only do you need good ideas, you need to present them well. Some people are good at being loud. Some people are good at being aggressive. Some people are good at trapping scum. Some people are good at simply pointing out inaccuracies in logic and contradictions every now and then. Figure out what you're good at, and apply your reading skills so that you're not left behind by scum leading you in every different direction.
When someone brings up a lynch candidate, read the thread to determine who is willing to vote for that person. Read the case. If there isn't one, demand one. The day 3 lynch was horrible; it was just desperate and mostly simply led by scum.
So at this point you might say, "fuck you bugs I can read unlike you, what do I do next"
Any time someone makes a significant post (or hell, even small ones) and particularly vote posts, determine whether the post makes sense from a town perspective. Would a townie say what this person has said? Is what the person is saying beneficial for town? Does it seem like there is a hidden agenda, some sort of ulterior motive that isn't completely clear within the literal context of the post?
If you can't tell, then you need to start paying more attention to this particular person. Gather more information. Some things don't really give you much information at all; either scum or town could say them. Good scum will actually look very similar to townies. They'll just be pushing a different agenda, and so you will have to piece a lot of different information to determine that they are scum. Ciryandor in this game might have been hard to read a lot of the time. Perhaps bunneh too. However, when you catch them saying something that doesn't help town, you need note it. Then, once you have enough information to be confident of a read, you crush them. Vote them. Build a case, post it, and support it. Who knows, maybe you're right. If you're confident, pressure your opponent and force more mistakes.
At any point if you start becoming unsure or you think you are not pursuing scum, reevaluate again, reread, and then move on. If you are pressured about this later (the fact that you just abruptly dropped your case) just casually mention that you thought your target seemed more townish after the pressure. Sometimes you can trap scum by laying off a case when you are no longer suspicious, to see if scum will bandwagon it. Scum love easy, town-supported lynches.
Last thing:
STAY ACTIVE. I received something like 7 or 8 PMs from the 3 people I was coaching. Some of them were after the player died. I actually PMed you guys proactively hoping you would have questions, and I even sent you guys an outline of what a good townie should do. None of you did it. You actually did the opposite (seeing as a couple of you got lynched). Activity is imperative. If you're inactive, scum will jump all over that and use you as a red herring. They can simply stay more active than you in the thread, and then call you useless/detrimental to town when you actually do show up. They won't be lying, either, because your inactivity actually DOES make you useless. There are very few exceptions to this, which is why it's almost always in town's interests to start killing off lurkers and useless players. + Show Spoiler +
of course once you KNOW people play a certain way, you have to be careful, but all of you were new, so this doesn't apply
Anyway, if anyone has questions go ahead and ask, although I'd bet that the vets of the forum are probably much better sources of information than I am.
GreYMisT’s Remarks First off, GJ scumteam with your flawless victory! That being said, there were definatly stuff that could be improved on that I noticed from my perspective. Im not going to look at what town could have done to find you guys, but rather how you guys functioned as a team.
The Good: Obviously you won the game without losing a single mafia member. So that’s a plus. Ciryandor also managed to become “confirmed town” pretty much based on his activity level and the length of his posts. IMABUNNEH was also on some peoples town list, and despite everyone thinking near the end of the game that he and xsksc were scum, they somehow managed to avoid a lynch. Overall there was pretty good communitcation in the QT, and everyone was able to agree on a general plan. Mafia was also able to force a no lynch day 1, which is pretty kickass. Also, after night one you forced a LOT of discussion regarding the death of risk, which creates so much WIFOM (ie good for mafia).
Thing to improve upon: Just a few things I noticed that could have flowed a little better this game for the scum team. The biggest and most glaring hole to me is that until near the end of the game, no one on the mafia team actually talked to each other in thread, and only maybe once even mentioned each other’s names. It takes some focus to be able to notice this, but to the observant townie this is a HUGE red flag. In the future, use the QT to create a rough plan for how you are going to interact with each other during the game.
The next thing was the activity/townieness level of the other two mafia members: IMABUNNEH and xsksc. Imagine a scenario in which ciryandor dies and flips red. Suddenly the mafia now has absolutely no town influence, as it was disproportionately given to ciry. If ciryanor had died and flipped red, and then suddenly one of you had a dramatic pick up in activity, that would be something suspicious people might catch onto. This kinda goes under the “general plan” that you make at the start of a game of everyones roles in the thread.
The final thing is there was very little actual discussion of blue hunting in the QT that I could see. Mostly it was just based on gut feeling, which is ok to start with. But for a second imagine the kind of giggle fest you would be in if HoD had actually died the night you shot him, leaving ciryandor to manipulate the town to his pleasure. A red/Blue flag for skrammen would be on day 1 he was posting in a style that many people thought was scummy, but then he avoided the lynch and then immediately increased his activity/usefulness, but just to get himself out of that jam. If you know he is not mafia, and yet expressing that behavior, write him down as a blue candidate.
One super minor thing is you guys started to say “well we know there is a medic.” Or something along those lines. You actually don’t for sure know that, unless you somehow know that the mafia sent in their kill, which you couldn’t unless you were mafia! Gasp! Its very small, but some players (Read WBG) will attack you for making such assumptions. Its just easier not to bother with them.
Overall very well played. If you have any questions please feel free to PM me or ask them in the thread. Im sure our other coaches would have some remarks as well.
On November 13 2011 15:56 GreYMisT wrote: The next thing was the activity/townieness level of the other two mafia members: IMABUNNEH and xsksc. Imagine a scenario in which ciryandor dies and flips red. Suddenly the mafia now has absolutely no town influence, as it was disproportionately given to ciry. If ciryanor had died and flipped red, and then suddenly one of you had a dramatic pick up in activity, that would be something suspicious people might catch onto. This kinda goes under the “general plan” that you make at the start of a game of everyones roles in the thread.
This is absolutely key, so I'm marking it. Often times scumteams are carried by a single scum player who grabs enough presence to control the game flow, and the team disintegrates if that player dies. The thing is, grabbing presence, more often than not leads to that player's eventual death, since he had to stick his neck out there. An ideal scumteam would have *all* its members grabbing influence, making it almost impossible to lynch any of them. As scum you first fear is the lynch, how are you going to defend yourself from it if you aren't actively influencing it? Realize that you can only argue your way out of say a cop check, or some awesome town analysis, if you have an already established presence, otherwise you *will* be lynched, and put your team at a deficit.
One super minor thing is you guys started to say “well we know there is a medic.” Or something along those lines. You actually don’t for sure know that, unless you somehow know that the mafia sent in their kill, which you couldn’t unless you were mafia! Gasp! Its very small, but some players (Read WBG) will attack you for making such assumptions. Its just easier not to bother with them.
I actually checked and if I recall only one or possibly two people didn't post at all during that night, so I kinda assumed somebody had sent it in, but I was aware that we didn't necessarily have one. Not shooting day 2 seemed like something that wouldn't help scum at all though. Also me not getting shot gave me a pretty good idea that there was a medic present, since I knew I had to be on the "to-kill" list, and I sure as hell wasn't getting lynched.
One super minor thing is you guys started to say “well we know there is a medic.” Or something along those lines. You actually don’t for sure know that, unless you somehow know that the mafia sent in their kill, which you couldn’t unless you were mafia! Gasp! Its very small, but some players (Read WBG) will attack you for making such assumptions. Its just easier not to bother with them.
I actually checked and if I recall only one or possibly two people didn't post at all during that night, so I kinda assumed somebody had sent it in, but I was aware that we didn't necessarily have one. Not shooting day 2 seemed like something that wouldn't help scum at all though. Also me not getting shot gave me a pretty good idea that there was a medic present, since I knew I had to be on the "to-kill" list, and I sure as hell wasn't getting lynched.
again its just a small thing, but you can use things like that as indicators for analysis.
One super minor thing is you guys started to say “well we know there is a medic.” Or something along those lines. You actually don’t for sure know that, unless you somehow know that the mafia sent in their kill, which you couldn’t unless you were mafia! Gasp! Its very small, but some players (Read WBG) will attack you for making such assumptions. Its just easier not to bother with them.
I actually checked and if I recall only one or possibly two people didn't post at all during that night, so I kinda assumed somebody had sent it in, but I was aware that we didn't necessarily have one. Not shooting day 2 seemed like something that wouldn't help scum at all though. Also me not getting shot gave me a pretty good idea that there was a medic present, since I knew I had to be on the "to-kill" list, and I sure as hell wasn't getting lynched.
Don't assume you know what scum know.
Good scum will punish you for that.
You could fake something or do it deliberately but I've gotten flak for that (though I don't think it's a big problem if you've planned it out)
I recommend that all the people who were endgamed read the observer QT linked in the endgame post. Sometimes people post intelligent stuff in there. also my post got quoted by GMarshal! /Swoon.
Good game guys. I think I lost it a bit at the end, I was usually in a hurry the last ingame day, and it led a few of my posts to be a bit too obvious I think, I was probably lucky not to get the vote turned onto me if I'm honest.
Reading the Observer QT gave me more information than the game did! :D
All in all had fun, learned some things, and somehow avoided being asked anything real for the majority of the game. Looking forward to maybe playing another one soon
On November 14 2011 00:00 IMABUNNEH wrote: Good game guys. I think I lost it a bit at the end, I was usually in a hurry the last ingame day, and it led a few of my posts to be a bit too obvious I think, I was probably lucky not to get the vote turned onto me if I'm honest.
Reading the Observer QT gave me more information than the game did! :D
All in all had fun, learned some things, and somehow avoided being asked anything real for the majority of the game. Looking forward to maybe playing another one soon
My first game was as scum well. Thinking like a mafia becomes a lot easier once you have played as vanilla town at least once.
On November 13 2011 13:29 Ciryandor wrote: GG (can't re anymore :p) I'm surprised nobody doubted me when I was scrambling all over on the last two days.
kind of. I was thinking about you earlier and asked you out really short that I don't like it and I didn't like your analyses at all which got me thinking but at that point in time I told you that I don't like it and completly ignored it because I thought if you really are mafia this is already gg. No way I could have made people lynch you ;D And I didn't really follow those last 2 days so I don't know about that sry.
So the only one I thought was mafia and turned out to be right was bunneh I guess. xsk... whatevs was my number #5 (think it was drem-hackle-skrammen-bunneh-xsk? and switched skrammen with bunneh)
But yeah great game by mafia. First 3 days really screwed us.
Edit: Game is over, I am allowed to edit now right? If not really really sorry but I don't see a reason for why I should not do so. Kita said in our observer-qt that he wanted to point out that he didn't like me talking about so many possibilities like I could be mafia (don't think he did yet, at least I haven't seen it) and just to explain it:
After hyshes died I send curu a depressed pm asking for what I should look because frankly, if what hyshes wasn't a scummy move I didn't know by what standards I should search for scummy moves (even if I got the same chance again, with a little magical fairy called kita telling me for some reason hyshes is 90% townie 10%mafia and those numbers were granted I still would not hesitate to do the exact same thing again to be honest). He replied that I should look at what people post and especially have a look at what they don't post. So I figured I'm better off explaining why me being mafia is bullshit :p Also, that's the reason I didn't like cyris analyses to begin with.
Toad you overthought things a lot. In particular was that post where you just randomly listed all the possible alignment combinations of you and Skrammen. That just led town on a loop because it was completely off-base.
When you do something like that, you invite scum to come in and manipulate. Then, town will lynch one of you. When one of you flips town they're predisposed to lynching the other the next day. It might not be logically correct, but simply the fact that you created a dichotomy between yourself and the other guy means that mafia will use that opportunity to force two really easy mislynches. The two of you are already scummy, you're both town, why not forge a false dichotomy and then kill both of you?
On November 02 2011 00:48 Toadesstern wrote: got home from university now and yeah let's get a little analysis what happened last day.
Let's just pretend we don't know a thing. In that scernario everything's possible. I could be green, I could be red, Skrammen could be green and Skrammen could be red. Same with Zanfa and risk but I'm going to talk about Skrammen and me since the two of us are the main subjects in this thread right now.
1) Both red Let's start with the easy one and pretend both Skrammen and I am red. In that case the two of us are stupid and I'm blaming him to be mafia while he is blaming me to be mafia. I know we're not really blameing each other but I did vote for him so I guess that counts, too. That does not sound like a good plan for mafia imo.
2) Both green Next possibilty: We're both green. If that turns out to be true towns horribly fucked. Not because of the fact that both of us are green but since we didn't even get a majority on a green while mafia is probably even helping us or at least spreading their votes and therefore we might have 1 or 2 mafias on Skrammen as well. And still we don't get a majority. If that's true we got a major problem because we're not going to get a lynch anytime soon (= free kill for mafia without having the chance to kill a mafia or at least get GRANTED information). => pretty much everyone could be mafia because they're able to vote whoever they want without having to manipulate votes at least a bit.
3) Skrammen green, I'm red In that case town got a heavy problem as well. Skrammen was closest for having a majority and it's pretty much the same as the second possibility: I'm mafia and I went for a wagon issued by someone else and still town hasn't got a majority. That would mean that out of those 6 votes probably 2 or 3 votes are issued by mafias (my vote at least + maybe my buddies) while 3 townies voted for Skrammen, 3 voted for me, 2 voted for Zanfa and 1 voted for Chocolate. That's not exactly what you want to do as town, no matter what.
4) I'm green, Skrammen is red In that situation mafia is probably not going to vote for skrammen in the first place. They want to safe their buddy as long as it's possible without leaking information of who actually is mafia out of votingbehaviors right before the deadline. Also this would mean we got at most 1 mafia voting for Skrammen (that is if they got balls). I doubt they got the balls to put their mafia buddy on a 6-votes position themselves, just to make those other 2 mafias really hidden. There could always be a hero votechange 1h before the deadline which would have made a lynch. So in that scenario we probably got about 5 townies voting for Skrammen, maybe it's even 6, while mafia is trying to get us on someone else. Therefore they got either 2 votes on me, 1 vote on me + 1 vote on zanfa or 2 votes on zanfa (the third one is Skrammens vote on choc), while 3 townies did not choose to vote for Skrammen.
For me it's kind of clear. I can rule out possibilty 1 (let's face it, noone's that stupid). I think 3 is pretty unlikely. I just think town should be able to get more than 3 votes on a single person without mafia therefore I think there's no mafia votes on Skrammen. If there are we're really fucked. 2 and 4 could be possible in my opinion. Having 5 or 6 townies able to focus their votes on 1 single person while 3 are not sure what to do sounds reasonable for me (compare with example 3: I don't think we got only 3 people being able to focus their votes while the rest is spreading their votes for whatever reason). Therefore I'd say its 4 > 2 > 3 > 1
I'm still not saying I think Skrammen's 100% sure red, and if he's green than risk is green as well. But I think it's a better explanation than the two of us being green or 'me red + Skrammen green' or both red.
#1 Is pretty unlikely imo.
#2 Is a possibility, I think at least one of you is scum though, I'd be very surprised if this was the case, and we're fucked if it is.
#3 I was very suspicious of you early on, but I ended up voting skarmmen because his later posts seemed really dodgy, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if you were scum.
#4 At the moment I'm trying to figure out which of you two is more likely to be town, because that would almost certainly make the other scum. However this is probably the most likely of the 4 options in my eyes.
Does exactly that.
You say that you think Skrammen is mafia (and so you must be town obviously) and the majority opinion in the thread (albeit very heavily scum-influenced) was the same as yours. The problem is that people swallowed that really easily. When a lot of people think someone is scum, and that person easily gets votes, either the scum is super bad, or chances are it's just a townie getting bandwagoned. In this case xsksc did the easy thing and he just agreed with you, cementing the notion that you are opposite alignments.
As for hyshes, I have no idea what he was doing, but when someone starts doing dumb stuff or overall doesn't care about getting lynched (particularly as a new player) chances are very strong that they are simply bored townies. I really don't know why hyshes played like he did, and no doubt it was very detrimental to town, but by all means you guys needed to ignore the distraction and focus on the people who had an actual agenda. On day3 you guys didn't see who bandwagoned, because I will bet most of you didn't go back to reread.
Look at the immediate aftermath of hyshes basically giving up. Players who immediately voted him without even thinking about it (despite saying they would) were bunneh, xsksc. Both scum. Players like Chocolate, Zanfada, and you looked much more town because you tried getting info out of hyshes before voting him. You also provided good reasons for that. HoD made a pretty good case on hyshes and so he came out of that looking more town as well. HoD's only problem was that he was tied very closely to ciryandor, so while I had xsksc+bunneh joined at the hip there were times during which I couldn't tell whether ciryandor or HoD was the real scum. I actually flopped a couple times on that.
Look at this post:
On October 31 2011 00:53 Drem903 wrote: The thing with xsksc was pretty much just a joke to try and get the ball rolling. The only person that has really garnered any suspicion from me is bunneh, and that's only because his posts seem to be "posts for the sake of posting" rather than trying to really get anything dones.
He only seems to post to try and appear active.
Perfect summary of what bunneh's day1 posting was. Why would townies just want to post just to post? Townies want to contribute. Bunneh was just posting to fly under the radar. He took it kind of badly, too, responding with this:
On October 31 2011 01:22 IMABUNNEH wrote: I'm not entirely sure what "posting for the sake of posting" is defined at, but its not like there was anything MUCH to poke at prior to my posts.
Either toads or risk.nuke definately look a bit dodgy. Both of the posts struck me as quite aggressive in turning it into finger pointing. I don't think getting all up in peoples' grills immediately is what we want. It's just going to get innocent people on the defensive from the start.
Drem has so far poked at someone randomly as a "joke" and then at myself for not getting immediately aggressive. Who's next, risk.nuke for BEING aggressive? :p I don't think finger pointing every 6 posts at a different person is going to help us.
I doubt someone with almost no activity at this point is likely to be scum though. So even though Skrammen hasn't said anything,I'd rule him out for the time being and look at the "half-active" posters. risk.nuke and hacklebeast are both pretty aggressive in getting people to turn on someone so early.
He tries to get away with "well there was nothing to talk about" but makes himself look more scummy by simply diverting attention from himself.
Scum very rarely want the spotlight on themselves. They want other people to take the heat for being scummy.
He then says we don't want aggressive townies. Well, you don't want 10 aggressive townies and no analysts, but you want aggressive townies who will push scummy players into posting more, and defending themselves. You don't want to be passive as town because that loses you games. Scum go inactive, and then they kill you by literally doing nothing.
The rest of bunneh's post has no coherence and makes very little sense. He basically just flails around in trying to say something but doesn't actually say anything, confirming exactly what Drem was talking about. He even accuses Drem of poking a lot of other players, but most tellingly, bunneh does it himself. He calls out risk.nuke, toad, then subtly throws in suspicion of drem (on opposite grounds) and then lastly hacklebeast randomly appears.
Then, he's not suspicious of an inactive player, Skrammen. Why? What does an inactive player contribute?
Later the next day bunneh went on to vote Skrammen for being inactive. This should've set off alarm bells for every town player at that point. You have a player who says we shouldn't touch inactives because they're unlikely to be scum, actually voting for an inactive because he thinks the inactivity is a scum tell.
On November 03 2011 09:56 IMABUNNEH wrote: However, I don't like that Skrammen hasn't posted since barely surviving. He's hiding too much for me, and my suspicion of him has basically done nothing since go up since I refused to vote for him. Unless I see something compelling from him, I'm going to have to make a provisional
##Vote SKrammen
Unless he posts something worthwhile, and worth waiting for, I'm unlikely to change this despite my other suspicions. It keeps coming back to him and Toads, but at least Toad doesn't look like he's trying to hide.
That behavioral contradiction was one of the biggest tells that bunneh was scum. Bunneh was earlier suspicious of toad, and said inactive players are unlikely to be scum. Later, he continued his suspicion of toad, but, for no apparent reason, changed his mind on inactives and voted Skrammen instead. No consistency there.
Then there's this:
On November 07 2011 10:47 IMABUNNEH wrote: I'm going to regret this, I don't have Chocolate pegged as a scum, but I guess we need a lynch.
##unvote Toadesstern
##vote Chocolate
Townies don't do this without putting up a tantrum. At no point did bunneh EVER defend chocolate. In fact, earlier in the day he actually considered him as a possibility for scum. If he really believed Chocolate was a townie he would've worked to stop the lynch from gaining ground.
I can't remember for the life of me what I saw that connected xsksc and bunneh, but basically they were connected 100%. This is just an example of what made xsksc scum.
Ciryandor was scum to me primarily because everyone thought he was town and he didn't die night 1 or night 2. That's pretty strange. He also said a lot of things that jumped out to me. I can go look for these things if anyone actually wants to see why.
On November 14 2011 09:53 wherebugsgo wrote: Toad you overthought things a lot. In particular was that post where you just randomly listed all the possible alignment combinations of you and Skrammen. That just led town on a loop because it was completely off-base.
When you do something like that, you invite scum to come in and manipulate. Then, town will lynch one of you. When one of you flips town they're predisposed to lynching the other the next day. It might not be logically correct, but simply the fact that you created a dichotomy between yourself and the other guy means that mafia will use that opportunity to force two really easy mislynches. The two of you are already scummy, you're both town, why not forge a false dichotomy and then kill both of you?
On November 02 2011 00:48 Toadesstern wrote: got home from university now and yeah let's get a little analysis what happened last day.
Let's just pretend we don't know a thing. In that scernario everything's possible. I could be green, I could be red, Skrammen could be green and Skrammen could be red. Same with Zanfa and risk but I'm going to talk about Skrammen and me since the two of us are the main subjects in this thread right now.
1) Both red Let's start with the easy one and pretend both Skrammen and I am red. In that case the two of us are stupid and I'm blaming him to be mafia while he is blaming me to be mafia. I know we're not really blameing each other but I did vote for him so I guess that counts, too. That does not sound like a good plan for mafia imo.
2) Both green Next possibilty: We're both green. If that turns out to be true towns horribly fucked. Not because of the fact that both of us are green but since we didn't even get a majority on a green while mafia is probably even helping us or at least spreading their votes and therefore we might have 1 or 2 mafias on Skrammen as well. And still we don't get a majority. If that's true we got a major problem because we're not going to get a lynch anytime soon (= free kill for mafia without having the chance to kill a mafia or at least get GRANTED information). => pretty much everyone could be mafia because they're able to vote whoever they want without having to manipulate votes at least a bit.
3) Skrammen green, I'm red In that case town got a heavy problem as well. Skrammen was closest for having a majority and it's pretty much the same as the second possibility: I'm mafia and I went for a wagon issued by someone else and still town hasn't got a majority. That would mean that out of those 6 votes probably 2 or 3 votes are issued by mafias (my vote at least + maybe my buddies) while 3 townies voted for Skrammen, 3 voted for me, 2 voted for Zanfa and 1 voted for Chocolate. That's not exactly what you want to do as town, no matter what.
4) I'm green, Skrammen is red In that situation mafia is probably not going to vote for skrammen in the first place. They want to safe their buddy as long as it's possible without leaking information of who actually is mafia out of votingbehaviors right before the deadline. Also this would mean we got at most 1 mafia voting for Skrammen (that is if they got balls). I doubt they got the balls to put their mafia buddy on a 6-votes position themselves, just to make those other 2 mafias really hidden. There could always be a hero votechange 1h before the deadline which would have made a lynch. So in that scenario we probably got about 5 townies voting for Skrammen, maybe it's even 6, while mafia is trying to get us on someone else. Therefore they got either 2 votes on me, 1 vote on me + 1 vote on zanfa or 2 votes on zanfa (the third one is Skrammens vote on choc), while 3 townies did not choose to vote for Skrammen.
For me it's kind of clear. I can rule out possibilty 1 (let's face it, noone's that stupid). I think 3 is pretty unlikely. I just think town should be able to get more than 3 votes on a single person without mafia therefore I think there's no mafia votes on Skrammen. If there are we're really fucked. 2 and 4 could be possible in my opinion. Having 5 or 6 townies able to focus their votes on 1 single person while 3 are not sure what to do sounds reasonable for me (compare with example 3: I don't think we got only 3 people being able to focus their votes while the rest is spreading their votes for whatever reason). Therefore I'd say its 4 > 2 > 3 > 1
I'm still not saying I think Skrammen's 100% sure red, and if he's green than risk is green as well. But I think it's a better explanation than the two of us being green or 'me red + Skrammen green' or both red.
#1 Is pretty unlikely imo.
#2 Is a possibility, I think at least one of you is scum though, I'd be very surprised if this was the case, and we're fucked if it is.
#3 I was very suspicious of you early on, but I ended up voting skarmmen because his later posts seemed really dodgy, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if you were scum.
#4 At the moment I'm trying to figure out which of you two is more likely to be town, because that would almost certainly make the other scum. However this is probably the most likely of the 4 options in my eyes.
Does exactly that.
You say that you think Skrammen is mafia (and so you must be town obviously) and the majority opinion in the thread (albeit very heavily scum-influenced) was the same as yours. The problem is that people swallowed that really easily. When a lot of people think someone is scum, and that person easily gets votes, either the scum is super bad, or chances are it's just a townie getting bandwagoned. In this case xsksc did the easy thing and he just agreed with you, cementing the notion that you are opposite alignments.
As for hyshes, I have no idea what he was doing, but when someone starts doing dumb stuff or overall doesn't care about getting lynched (particularly as a new player) chances are very strong that they are simply bored townies. I really don't know why hyshes played like he did, and no doubt it was very detrimental to town, but by all means you guys needed to ignore the distraction and focus on the people who had an actual agenda. On day3 you guys didn't see who bandwagoned, because I will bet most of you didn't go back to reread.
Look at the immediate aftermath of hyshes basically giving up. Players who immediately voted him without even thinking about it (despite saying they would) were bunneh, xsksc. Both scum. Players like Chocolate, Zanfada, and you looked much more town because you tried getting info out of hyshes before voting him. You also provided good reasons for that. HoD made a pretty good case on hyshes and so he came out of that looking more town as well. HoD's only problem was that he was tied very closely to ciryandor, so while I had xsksc+bunneh joined at the hip there were times during which I couldn't tell whether ciryandor or HoD was the real scum. I actually flopped a couple times on that.
On October 31 2011 00:53 Drem903 wrote: The thing with xsksc was pretty much just a joke to try and get the ball rolling. The only person that has really garnered any suspicion from me is bunneh, and that's only because his posts seem to be "posts for the sake of posting" rather than trying to really get anything dones.
He only seems to post to try and appear active.
Perfect summary of what bunneh's day1 posting was. Why would townies just want to post just to post? Townies want to contribute. Bunneh was just posting to fly under the radar. He took it kind of badly, too, responding with this:
On October 31 2011 01:22 IMABUNNEH wrote: I'm not entirely sure what "posting for the sake of posting" is defined at, but its not like there was anything MUCH to poke at prior to my posts.
Either toads or risk.nuke definately look a bit dodgy. Both of the posts struck me as quite aggressive in turning it into finger pointing. I don't think getting all up in peoples' grills immediately is what we want. It's just going to get innocent people on the defensive from the start.
Drem has so far poked at someone randomly as a "joke" and then at myself for not getting immediately aggressive. Who's next, risk.nuke for BEING aggressive? :p I don't think finger pointing every 6 posts at a different person is going to help us.
I doubt someone with almost no activity at this point is likely to be scum though. So even though Skrammen hasn't said anything,I'd rule him out for the time being and look at the "half-active" posters. risk.nuke and hacklebeast are both pretty aggressive in getting people to turn on someone so early.
He tries to get away with "well there was nothing to talk about" but makes himself look more scummy by simply diverting attention from himself.
Scum very rarely want the spotlight on themselves. They want other people to take the heat for being scummy.
He then says we don't want aggressive townies. Well, you don't want 10 aggressive townies and no analysts, but you want aggressive townies who will push scummy players into posting more, and defending themselves. You don't want to be passive as town because that loses you games. Scum go inactive, and then they kill you by literally doing nothing.
The rest of bunneh's post has no coherence and makes very little sense. He basically just flails around in trying to say something but doesn't actually say anything, confirming exactly what Drem was talking about. He even accuses Drem of poking a lot of other players, but most tellingly, bunneh does it himself. He calls out risk.nuke, toad, then subtly throws in suspicion of drem (on opposite grounds) and then lastly hacklebeast randomly appears.
Then, he's not suspicious of an inactive player, Skrammen. Why? What does an inactive player contribute?
Later the next day bunneh went on to vote Skrammen for being inactive. This should've set off alarm bells for every town player at that point. You have a player who says we shouldn't touch inactives because they're unlikely to be scum, actually voting for an inactive because he thinks the inactivity is a scum tell.
On November 03 2011 09:56 IMABUNNEH wrote: However, I don't like that Skrammen hasn't posted since barely surviving. He's hiding too much for me, and my suspicion of him has basically done nothing since go up since I refused to vote for him. Unless I see something compelling from him, I'm going to have to make a provisional
##Vote SKrammen
Unless he posts something worthwhile, and worth waiting for, I'm unlikely to change this despite my other suspicions. It keeps coming back to him and Toads, but at least Toad doesn't look like he's trying to hide.
That behavioral contradiction was one of the biggest tells that bunneh was scum. Bunneh was earlier suspicious of toad, and said inactive players are unlikely to be scum. Later, he continued his suspicion of toad, but, for no apparent reason, changed his mind on inactives and voted Skrammen instead. No consistency there.
On November 07 2011 10:47 IMABUNNEH wrote: I'm going to regret this, I don't have Chocolate pegged as a scum, but I guess we need a lynch.
##unvote Toadesstern
##vote Chocolate
Townies don't do this without putting up a tantrum. At no point did bunneh EVER defend chocolate. In fact, earlier in the day he actually considered him as a possibility for scum. If he really believed Chocolate was a townie he would've worked to stop the lynch from gaining ground.
I can't remember for the life of me what I saw that connected xsksc and bunneh, but basically they were connected 100%. This is just an example of what made xsksc scum.
Ciryandor was scum to me primarily because everyone thought he was town and he didn't die night 1 or night 2. That's pretty strange. He also said a lot of things that jumped out to me. I can go look for these things if anyone actually wants to see why.
for voting for my entire team: ##Vote Wherebugsgo
because i didnt get to actually get to type that in the last game we played.
Around Day 2-3 I actually saw that myself back on Day 1. I use the excuse I didn't have a clue what I was really doing, mostly because it took me a bit of time to get the hang of how people really wanted to play the game. I think I more or less slipped by within the game (read the obs QT, I know it's different there ) after I got a footing on what people were looking for what.
I KNOW I made multiple mistakes and scumslips having read back, but I think other than that switch on Day 1, what I was saying/contributing worked within this specific game if nothing else. I get the feeling that depending on who you're playing with changes how you need to play the game.
On November 14 2011 10:01 IMABUNNEH wrote: Around Day 2-3 I actually saw that myself back on Day 1. I use the excuse I didn't have a clue what I was really doing, mostly because it took me a bit of time to get the hang of how people really wanted to play the game. I think I more or less slipped by within the game (read the obs QT, I know it's different there ) after I got a footing on what people were looking for what.
I KNOW I made multiple mistakes and scumslips having read back, but I think other than that switch on Day 1, what I was saying/contributing worked within this specific game if nothing else. I get the feeling that depending on who you're playing with changes how you need to play the game.
this is true, but generally there are things that scum tend to do simply because they have an agenda. Likewise, there are things that town tend to do too.
Good scum often don't follow known patterns, but not very many people on TL make good scum, so it's good to know. Things worked in this game for scum, IMO, because town didn't know what to look for, town didn't read, and town was inactive. In such situations scum can do whatever they want because they are never under any serious threat.
On November 14 2011 09:53 wherebugsgo wrote: Toad you overthought things a lot. In particular was that post where you just randomly listed all the possible alignment combinations of you and Skrammen. That just led town on a loop because it was completely off-base.
When you do something like that, you invite scum to come in and manipulate. Then, town will lynch one of you. When one of you flips town they're predisposed to lynching the other the next day. It might not be logically correct, but simply the fact that you created a dichotomy between yourself and the other guy means that mafia will use that opportunity to force two really easy mislynches. The two of you are already scummy, you're both town, why not forge a false dichotomy and then kill both of you?
Notice this post:
On November 02 2011 06:18 xsksc wrote:
On November 02 2011 00:48 Toadesstern wrote: got home from university now and yeah let's get a little analysis what happened last day.
Let's just pretend we don't know a thing. In that scernario everything's possible. I could be green, I could be red, Skrammen could be green and Skrammen could be red. Same with Zanfa and risk but I'm going to talk about Skrammen and me since the two of us are the main subjects in this thread right now.
1) Both red Let's start with the easy one and pretend both Skrammen and I am red. In that case the two of us are stupid and I'm blaming him to be mafia while he is blaming me to be mafia. I know we're not really blameing each other but I did vote for him so I guess that counts, too. That does not sound like a good plan for mafia imo.
2) Both green Next possibilty: We're both green. If that turns out to be true towns horribly fucked. Not because of the fact that both of us are green but since we didn't even get a majority on a green while mafia is probably even helping us or at least spreading their votes and therefore we might have 1 or 2 mafias on Skrammen as well. And still we don't get a majority. If that's true we got a major problem because we're not going to get a lynch anytime soon (= free kill for mafia without having the chance to kill a mafia or at least get GRANTED information). => pretty much everyone could be mafia because they're able to vote whoever they want without having to manipulate votes at least a bit.
3) Skrammen green, I'm red In that case town got a heavy problem as well. Skrammen was closest for having a majority and it's pretty much the same as the second possibility: I'm mafia and I went for a wagon issued by someone else and still town hasn't got a majority. That would mean that out of those 6 votes probably 2 or 3 votes are issued by mafias (my vote at least + maybe my buddies) while 3 townies voted for Skrammen, 3 voted for me, 2 voted for Zanfa and 1 voted for Chocolate. That's not exactly what you want to do as town, no matter what.
4) I'm green, Skrammen is red In that situation mafia is probably not going to vote for skrammen in the first place. They want to safe their buddy as long as it's possible without leaking information of who actually is mafia out of votingbehaviors right before the deadline. Also this would mean we got at most 1 mafia voting for Skrammen (that is if they got balls). I doubt they got the balls to put their mafia buddy on a 6-votes position themselves, just to make those other 2 mafias really hidden. There could always be a hero votechange 1h before the deadline which would have made a lynch. So in that scenario we probably got about 5 townies voting for Skrammen, maybe it's even 6, while mafia is trying to get us on someone else. Therefore they got either 2 votes on me, 1 vote on me + 1 vote on zanfa or 2 votes on zanfa (the third one is Skrammens vote on choc), while 3 townies did not choose to vote for Skrammen.
For me it's kind of clear. I can rule out possibilty 1 (let's face it, noone's that stupid). I think 3 is pretty unlikely. I just think town should be able to get more than 3 votes on a single person without mafia therefore I think there's no mafia votes on Skrammen. If there are we're really fucked. 2 and 4 could be possible in my opinion. Having 5 or 6 townies able to focus their votes on 1 single person while 3 are not sure what to do sounds reasonable for me (compare with example 3: I don't think we got only 3 people being able to focus their votes while the rest is spreading their votes for whatever reason). Therefore I'd say its 4 > 2 > 3 > 1
I'm still not saying I think Skrammen's 100% sure red, and if he's green than risk is green as well. But I think it's a better explanation than the two of us being green or 'me red + Skrammen green' or both red.
#1 Is pretty unlikely imo.
#2 Is a possibility, I think at least one of you is scum though, I'd be very surprised if this was the case, and we're fucked if it is.
#3 I was very suspicious of you early on, but I ended up voting skarmmen because his later posts seemed really dodgy, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if you were scum.
#4 At the moment I'm trying to figure out which of you two is more likely to be town, because that would almost certainly make the other scum. However this is probably the most likely of the 4 options in my eyes.
Does exactly that.
You say that you think Skrammen is mafia (and so you must be town obviously) and the majority opinion in the thread (albeit very heavily scum-influenced) was the same as yours. The problem is that people swallowed that really easily. When a lot of people think someone is scum, and that person easily gets votes, either the scum is super bad, or chances are it's just a townie getting bandwagoned. In this case xsksc did the easy thing and he just agreed with you, cementing the notion that you are opposite alignments.
As for hyshes, I have no idea what he was doing, but when someone starts doing dumb stuff or overall doesn't care about getting lynched (particularly as a new player) chances are very strong that they are simply bored townies. I really don't know why hyshes played like he did, and no doubt it was very detrimental to town, but by all means you guys needed to ignore the distraction and focus on the people who had an actual agenda. On day3 you guys didn't see who bandwagoned, because I will bet most of you didn't go back to reread.
Look at the immediate aftermath of hyshes basically giving up. Players who immediately voted him without even thinking about it (despite saying they would) were bunneh, xsksc. Both scum. Players like Chocolate, Zanfada, and you looked much more town because you tried getting info out of hyshes before voting him. You also provided good reasons for that. HoD made a pretty good case on hyshes and so he came out of that looking more town as well. HoD's only problem was that he was tied very closely to ciryandor, so while I had xsksc+bunneh joined at the hip there were times during which I couldn't tell whether ciryandor or HoD was the real scum. I actually flopped a couple times on that.
Look at this post:
On October 31 2011 00:53 Drem903 wrote: The thing with xsksc was pretty much just a joke to try and get the ball rolling. The only person that has really garnered any suspicion from me is bunneh, and that's only because his posts seem to be "posts for the sake of posting" rather than trying to really get anything dones.
He only seems to post to try and appear active.
Perfect summary of what bunneh's day1 posting was. Why would townies just want to post just to post? Townies want to contribute. Bunneh was just posting to fly under the radar. He took it kind of badly, too, responding with this:
On October 31 2011 01:22 IMABUNNEH wrote: I'm not entirely sure what "posting for the sake of posting" is defined at, but its not like there was anything MUCH to poke at prior to my posts.
Either toads or risk.nuke definately look a bit dodgy. Both of the posts struck me as quite aggressive in turning it into finger pointing. I don't think getting all up in peoples' grills immediately is what we want. It's just going to get innocent people on the defensive from the start.
Drem has so far poked at someone randomly as a "joke" and then at myself for not getting immediately aggressive. Who's next, risk.nuke for BEING aggressive? :p I don't think finger pointing every 6 posts at a different person is going to help us.
I doubt someone with almost no activity at this point is likely to be scum though. So even though Skrammen hasn't said anything,I'd rule him out for the time being and look at the "half-active" posters. risk.nuke and hacklebeast are both pretty aggressive in getting people to turn on someone so early.
He tries to get away with "well there was nothing to talk about" but makes himself look more scummy by simply diverting attention from himself.
Scum very rarely want the spotlight on themselves. They want other people to take the heat for being scummy.
He then says we don't want aggressive townies. Well, you don't want 10 aggressive townies and no analysts, but you want aggressive townies who will push scummy players into posting more, and defending themselves. You don't want to be passive as town because that loses you games. Scum go inactive, and then they kill you by literally doing nothing.
The rest of bunneh's post has no coherence and makes very little sense. He basically just flails around in trying to say something but doesn't actually say anything, confirming exactly what Drem was talking about. He even accuses Drem of poking a lot of other players, but most tellingly, bunneh does it himself. He calls out risk.nuke, toad, then subtly throws in suspicion of drem (on opposite grounds) and then lastly hacklebeast randomly appears.
Then, he's not suspicious of an inactive player, Skrammen. Why? What does an inactive player contribute?
Later the next day bunneh went on to vote Skrammen for being inactive. This should've set off alarm bells for every town player at that point. You have a player who says we shouldn't touch inactives because they're unlikely to be scum, actually voting for an inactive because he thinks the inactivity is a scum tell.
On November 03 2011 09:56 IMABUNNEH wrote: However, I don't like that Skrammen hasn't posted since barely surviving. He's hiding too much for me, and my suspicion of him has basically done nothing since go up since I refused to vote for him. Unless I see something compelling from him, I'm going to have to make a provisional
##Vote SKrammen
Unless he posts something worthwhile, and worth waiting for, I'm unlikely to change this despite my other suspicions. It keeps coming back to him and Toads, but at least Toad doesn't look like he's trying to hide.
That behavioral contradiction was one of the biggest tells that bunneh was scum. Bunneh was earlier suspicious of toad, and said inactive players are unlikely to be scum. Later, he continued his suspicion of toad, but, for no apparent reason, changed his mind on inactives and voted Skrammen instead. No consistency there.
Then there's this:
On November 07 2011 10:47 IMABUNNEH wrote: I'm going to regret this, I don't have Chocolate pegged as a scum, but I guess we need a lynch.
##unvote Toadesstern
##vote Chocolate
Townies don't do this without putting up a tantrum. At no point did bunneh EVER defend chocolate. In fact, earlier in the day he actually considered him as a possibility for scum. If he really believed Chocolate was a townie he would've worked to stop the lynch from gaining ground.
I can't remember for the life of me what I saw that connected xsksc and bunneh, but basically they were connected 100%. This is just an example of what made xsksc scum.
Ciryandor was scum to me primarily because everyone thought he was town and he didn't die night 1 or night 2. That's pretty strange. He also said a lot of things that jumped out to me. I can go look for these things if anyone actually wants to see why.
for voting for my entire team: ##Vote Wherebugsgo
because i didnt get to actually get to type that in the last game we played.
Look at the immediate aftermath of hyshes basically giving up. Players who immediately voted him without even thinking about it (despite saying they would) were bunneh, xsksc. Both scum. Players like Chocolate, Zanfada, and you looked much more town because you tried getting info out of hyshes before voting him. You also provided good reasons for that. HoD made a pretty good case on hyshes and so he came out of that looking more town as well. HoD's only problem was that he was tied very closely to ciryandor, so while I had xsksc+bunneh joined at the hip there were times during which I couldn't tell whether ciryandor or HoD was the real scum. I actually flopped a couple times on that.
Ciryandor was scum to me primarily because everyone thought he was town and he didn't die night 1 or night 2. That's pretty strange. He also said a lot of things that jumped out to me. I can go look for these things if anyone actually wants to see why.
Go, I want to polish up my town and scum game so it becomes more neutral; will help a lot with seeing what subtle tells I was dropping; and if I could make them when speaking as scum more town-like.
Also, I'd like to see what kind of analysis I should be throwing out as town given the lack of extra information that I would have had as scum. My weakness has been pressuring and analysis as town when there are multiple unknown factors like scum.
Look at the immediate aftermath of hyshes basically giving up. Players who immediately voted him without even thinking about it (despite saying they would) were bunneh, xsksc. Both scum. Players like Chocolate, Zanfada, and you looked much more town because you tried getting info out of hyshes before voting him. You also provided good reasons for that. HoD made a pretty good case on hyshes and so he came out of that looking more town as well. HoD's only problem was that he was tied very closely to ciryandor, so while I had xsksc+bunneh joined at the hip there were times during which I couldn't tell whether ciryandor or HoD was the real scum. I actually flopped a couple times on that.
Ciryandor was scum to me primarily because everyone thought he was town and he didn't die night 1 or night 2. That's pretty strange. He also said a lot of things that jumped out to me. I can go look for these things if anyone actually wants to see why.
Go, I want to polish up my town and scum game so it becomes more neutral; will help a lot with seeing what subtle tells I was dropping; and if I could make them when speaking as scum more town-like.
The thing that tipped me off on day 2 after the flip was that risk called you out on your bad logic and poor case on Skrammen, then pointed out how people were sheeping you, then he died instead of you dying.
Then, what was funny was that you had a really hilarious reaction to risk's death. It went something like, "if I were scum I'd never shoot risk! I expected to be shot!" but no one noticed that so you got away with it. Townies are very rarely in a position to speculate about scumkills. You don't want to speculate about why they would kill someone so quickly after the night post. If you're going to speculate, you need to provide evidence. A townie could've potentially said, well it was possible risk.nuke got shot because he was active and pressuring actual scum. In that case, they would go back and look at who risk was pressuring. That didn't happen, of course.
Then, the fact that you pursued the motivation for risk's death was even weirder. It made it sound like you had knowledge of the situation (i.e., you were scum)
Another thing that was apparent is that every time you posted a case, you left "outs." Your cases were halfhearted and every single time they had no decisiveness behind them. At no point did it seem like you truly believed your target was scum. When you posted your case on drem you used a mistake (one that townies could easily make) that he thought there were 4 scum. Any competent townie should know that scum wouldn't make such a mistake. Why would scum bring attention to themselves like that?
You lucked out hard because hyshes basically screwed himself. He had you as one scum but he didn't do anything. Correct read on 1/3 of the mafia and no effort=dead townie.
Then I almost died laughing on day 3 or whenever it was where you just utterly destroyed the thread with 10 massive posts in a row that just focused post by post on almost everyone in the game. That was so incredibly distracting, I give you props for that. You basically lured the rest of the townies into believing you were innocent on the sheer amount of effort you put into writing that. I mean come on, what scum would do that, right?
If they actually had the will to read about 1 or 2 of those post by post series they would see that most it was a gigantic mass of fluff. What on earth is the purpose of copying everyone's filter and then putting your own play-by-play to it, as town? It's a huge distraction; town wants relevant information to find scum, not fluff on everyone who is left alive. In future games, you should keep this in mind; if you do something like that you'll probably still dupe bad townies, but good ones will know that you're basically just destroying the thread.
The last thing that I remember off the top of my head is that you made connections between players without providing reasons. You connected bunneh's and toad's alignment at one point, for no reason at all. No one called you out on it and I didn't understand where it came from. It certainly seemed like you were trying to cover up your scumbuddies.
In addition every time you posted reads xsksc would come third, with two scummy townies before him. The two scummy townies would always change, but xsksc would always be third. That, again, seemed like you were constantly giving yourself outs. Don't do that so obviously.
EDIT:
On November 14 2011 13:53 Ciryandor wrote: Also, I'd like to see what kind of analysis I should be throwing out as town given the lack of extra information that I would have had as scum. My weakness has been pressuring and analysis as town when there are multiple unknown factors like scum.
A lot of the stuff, I covered above. Basically, if you ever see someone do those things that I pointed out you were doing, call them out on it. Pressure them and figure out why. Determine motivations.
For me I love asking people questions and getting reactions out of them. A lot of the time people will post things with no reasoning, or bad reasoning. If you call them out, their subsequent reactions will often tell you whether they are scum just making stuff up or townies who are lazy or whatever.
Unbased assumptions are often a good place to start. Why are players X and Y connected? Why does Z HAVE to be true?
Contradictions are also good. Imagine someone says player X is scum because he's inactive, but doesn't mention inactive player Y. You ask this guy why he hasn't mentioned player Y. When pointed out with townies, they'll usually go back and reread, and then mention that player, or provide good reasoning as to why they think player Y isn't scum. Scum will sometimes try to wiggle out of answering the question, usually providing a non-answer or attacking you instead for "defending" player X. They might even say that the player is scummy, but will keep insisting that the original target is better for arbitrary, unquantifiable reasons. You need to be suspicious of this.
On November 14 2011 10:07 wherebugsgo wrote: Good scum often don't follow known patterns, but not very many people on TL make good scum, so it's good to know. Things worked in this game for scum, IMO, because town didn't know what to look for, town didn't read, and town was inactive. In such situations scum can do whatever they want because they are never under any serious threat.
Yeah as mentioned, after hyshes flipped green I really was shocked and I don't think I was the only one. I didn't know what to look for anymore and hod wasn't exactly motivated himself while the rest of our group was a little active but noone took over
Edit: Also get TL Mafia XLVI started guys
Edit2:
On November 14 2011 14:26 wherebugsgo wrote:
Then I almost died laughing on day 3 or whenever it was where you just utterly destroyed the thread with 10 massive posts in a row that just focused post by post on almost everyone in the game. That was so incredibly distracting, I give you props for that. You basically lured the rest of the townies into believing you were innocent on the sheer amount of effort you put into writing that. I mean come on, what scum would do that, right?
If they actually had the will to read about 1 or 2 of those post by post series they would see that most it was a gigantic mass of fluff. What on earth is the purpose of copying everyone's filter and then putting your own play-by-play to it, as town? It's a huge distraction; town wants relevant information to find scum, not fluff on everyone who is left alive. In future games, you should keep this in mind; if you do something like that you'll probably still dupe bad townies, but good ones will know that you're basically just destroying the thread.
I DID read 3 or 4 of them and what you said is just exactly what I thought. It's a shitload of text and yeah, he put a lot effort in it but there was just nothing special. A list of everything a person posted (that is everything interesting in cyris opinion) and that's about it. No actual analysis, just that huge wall of text, no conclusions (well a bunch, but no "big" conclusion to finish it or whatever). That's why I thought building a case on one or maybe two people is way better and kept it that way to finish it off with a nice concluion but the way cyri did it was just way too much :D The ratio of information per post was just incredible off. No way someone could have possible got all this stuff in his brain to make decicion based on ALL this afterwards. Got me thinking but again, at that point I thought it's either cyri=blue+skrammen=red or skrammen=blue+cyri=red and lynching cyri or even pressuring cyri wasn't an option for me (I thought) since attacking someone who's pretty much confirmed townie by most people isn't a usefull talent toi have for a guy who just ninja-dodged a lynch. The ironie behind all this: I think I was the guy who started that green read on cyri saying on day1 it totally looks like what cyri did last game and he's helping town day1. Day2 and Day3 he was falling in my lists but noone said a thing
On November 15 2011 00:04 hyshes wrote: Ciryandor was never on my town list.
It isn't what you believe, but what you can make others believe that matters in a game of mafia.
Doesn't matter, got lynched bro.
On a more serious note, imploding like you did on Day 2 and not making any effort to try and actually get attention on someone else when you got pressured? That was very poor form. Look at what happened to Toad. He got shot when it became apparent to us he was more of a liability to scum alive than dead; and all it took was a vigorous defense and a lot of contribution to town. If you had done that, people would have still suspected you and Toad, and HoD would have never gained his prominence in town discussion, but I would have never had the same level of townie cred as well. 3 townies and 1 scum being active and pushing each other is much harder to co-opt than 1 townie and 1 scum.
On November 15 2011 00:04 hyshes wrote: Ciryandor was never on my town list.
Doesn't matter man, you could have all the scum and no one would care if you can't convince the other townies that.
Giving up and letting yourself die because people aren't listening isn't a good way to actually make them listen to you posthumously. You'll just end up with a boatload of "wtf" reactions and then no one will bother looking at your posts again because it'll be concluded that you didn't know what you were doing.
Also if you guys aren't playing in Radfield's Mini X, you should check it out. Couples Therapy as well. Often watching other people play gives you new ideas and thoughts. Ask the host for the observer QT if there is one.
yeah saw it yesterday and wanted to /in but it was already full Would have loved to play a normal minie, except for the part that it's only 9 instead of 12 I guess. Next game will be a normal ( = big) game for me. Hopefully it'll start soon and I really have to post less in mafia games or I'll have a hard time once I AM mafia :p
On November 15 2011 05:28 wherebugsgo wrote: Why is posting less necessary?
I figured I was posting a bit too much the moment I read that wall of text from cyri :p Should have sticked to more concentrated information instead of those wall of texts
Wall of text works in certain contexts. If you do a wall for a PBP of a potential scum or two and make an iron-clad case, it can make or break games. It just has to be compelling enough for people to actually read and think about it.
Yeah I guess you could, mafia involves a LOT of reading though. You have to commit a lot of time to just reading through pages of text. I actually found it quite enjoyable to go back and read through older games.
On November 27 2011 00:19 Steveling wrote: I demand we start a new newbie game. Who shall I pm to do this?
There are currently two games running which collectively encompass about 100 people between players and hosts. That's a super high number for us so there aren't a lot of random people around who could host a newbie game.
I guess you could try and ask Radfield to host, the game he was hosting just finished. However it'd be really hard to fill a game (even a small one) because of how many people are currently wrapped up in Steamship and XLVII.
On November 27 2011 00:19 Steveling wrote: I demand we start a new newbie game. Who shall I pm to do this?
There are currently two games running which collectively encompass about 100 people between players and hosts. That's a super high number for us so there aren't a lot of random people around who could host a newbie game.
I guess you could try and ask Radfield to host, the game he was hosting just finished. However it'd be really hard to fill a game (even a small one) because of how many people are currently wrapped up in Steamship and XLVII.
I would join the already running games but I really don't want to ruin everything. I might come and post something like '' Ok guys,x z and y are totally no mafia, lets kill the rest, ok?''
you guys should try petitioning in the above thread.
I'm sure there will be one soon, since new players have popped in and it's been a few weeks since the last newbie game.
I'm sure there will also be a regular mini soon as well, those are cool too, and you're not playing with only new players, you'll be playing with forum vets as well!
If you're a new player I'd suggest just joining an open game as soon as there is one, don't wait for a new-player specific game. You'll learn a lot more that way IMO, seeing as you'll be thrown into the mix with players of varying skill levels. It's sometimes tough to get adjusted to at first but we were all new players at one point (I was new only like 3 months ago).
For the meantime you guys could watch ongoing games or read old ones. The best ones to read IMO are the minis, since they tend to be short and sweet and often showcase good play across the board. They're also less likely to be dominated by modkills and things of that sort, so you see less luck-based play going on.