EPTNewbie Mini Mafia - Page 21
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HarbingerOfDoom
United States508 Posts
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Chocolate
United States2350 Posts
On November 03 2011 06:10 Drem903 wrote: chocolate[spoiler] - last post was about being more agressive against people who make mistakes and he has contributed next to nothing to any of the conversations. His only other notable post was to just say what everyone else said and point out that SKrammen was the prime suspect. Major point to take from this: If chocolate is Mafia, then SKrammen likely isn't. Also, as SKrammen pointed out in one of his posts, chocolate never made a case against him, but was quick to vote for him. I have been gone the entire day as it has been very very busy. I will try to post again later tonight. | ||
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Zanfada
United States53 Posts
Drem Makes a number of mistakes making him look more like a newbie and easier to ignore. Asking a question that is answered in the general rule + Show Spoiler + On October 31 2011 01:19 Drem903 wrote: Are you able to change you're vote after you have voted? If you're not able to change you're vote, then we also have to be very suspicious of zanfada. We both randomly chose a person to try and encourage discussion, but he actually voted. If you can't change you're vote, then that seems suspicious to me, as he seems in a hurry to lynch someone (anyone). If you can change you're vote, then it's no big deal, but it's still something to consider. Editing his post + Show Spoiler + On November 01 2011 03:28 Drem903 wrote: I'll be the first to admit that i am not particularly talkative, although that's mostly because i don't have regular computer access at school.. I have been reading the thread through, and although i still hold zanfada in suspicion, i will also have to agree that SKrammen has not really contributed that much either. His only notable post just recounts information that everyone should know (though some may not have read the thread too carefully and could've forgotten). Although i feel the need to point out, that SKrammen did call out Zanfada for being hasty to vote (even if he could later rescind the vote). If they were both scum, then it wouldn't make sense for them to call suspicion upon one another. Zanfada also hasn't posted in a while, and the only notable parts of his posts were: asking the blues to post more frequently (though not to identify themselves), and to defend himself from hacklebeasts own accusations. So, the people i'm currently very suspicious of are: SKrammen and Zanfada. When i get more time to really look at everyone's posts this might change, but it's just those 2 for now. ##vote Zanfada The whole not voting for skram even though drem thought skram was scummy + Show Spoiler + On November 03 2011 03:21 Drem903 wrote: ##vote Toadesstern Reasons: 1) His posts are long when a simple reply could answer the question (disregarding his analysis post on risk). As scum he's using longer posts to try and cover all possible points that could indicate him to be Mafia. 2) The only person who would benefit from Risk's death is Toad. Now, my earlier statement on that was it could be a Mafia ploy to distract us, but that would also be immediately obvious so it could be a double trick (kill risk to get suspicion on toad, but we realize that and stop focusing on toad, and then toad is mafia so it was just a convoluted trap that could work). At this point it just gets into an infinite chain of back and forth. 3) one of his earliest posts was to tell blues to post more frequently, which could have been a way to encourage the new Blue's to help the town, or (more likely) try and make them a mafia target. Anyway, now that i'm a genuine target. As i said, my reasoning for not lynching SK was that my suspicion was not enough to risk lynching him if he's town. If Rammen was town, then we would have ended up losing two townies on day 1, leaving us with a bare majority (we would have 6 out of 10 people), which means every one of us would have to agree. The risk is that if one or two mafia make even an ok case, some town may agree with them and then we get split vote once more. I wasn't convinced enough on SK to vote for him so i didn't. This is only my first game, so maybe that's just a nooby mistake and it's usually worth it to take a chance on the lynch, but i just didn't think it was in the town's best interest to take that chance. Skram Has not posted much in days, any his previous posts don’t accually say much. + Show Spoiler + On October 31 2011 23:10 Skrammen wrote: Ah. Well, you see I was only trying to clarify some things so they are clear. I did not however, encourage it. + Show Spoiler + The only people that benefit from a delayed discussion is obviously the mafia, they'd rather it never happen. Also, while his statement is true, I think it was fairly obvious to most people, and scum always like to have an excuse to fall back on. I think we both might be talking without saying anything now; both of these things are quite obvious, yet we both had to say it. What I said was just that; A head's up just in case people did not know. Honestly I think this is pretty bad grounds for accusations. I still maintain that a vote 4 hours into the game is pretty suspicious, but not enough to be convinced he is red. + Show Spoiler + I can take my vote back at any time. The vote was just there to promote talking which it did just that. What was alot more interesting was Toad's post and how it was received. I personally think blues should post and help the town or they stand out to mafia and playing safe and become much better targets. Also mafia rarely mention blues for the simple fact that it makes them look more like mafia hunting for blues with any mention of blues. The same goes for blues themselves, they want to hide with town and do their job. I think Toad was just trying to prevent what happened last game to happen this game. However his post doesn't say anything more then "post guys" which doesn't further along any conversation it just increase his post count which in my opinion is all mafia try to do for the first day. On October 30 2011 22:54 hacklebeast wrote: Show nested quote + Unnecessarily trying to start a town panic? Baseless accusing people that, under your own admission, have no evidence against? Sounds like very mafia things to do. I'm not going to go so far as to cast my vote yet, but I'm watching you. Besides, I could never have committed the crime. Gmarshal I could take or leave, but killing ponies? I don't have it in me to take out something this lovable. I wasn't starting a town panic, though it seems to have caused you to panic a little. Your response to my vote seems to be an emotional plea involving ponies and a FOS but little more then that. It seems as if you are trying to not draw any sort of attention to yourself even after a vote has already been placed on you. Normally I would take this as a scum tell but it seems more like a newbie tell then a mafia at this point. Then there is Ciryandor, he defended me and my baseless attack on someone. The only time I usually am defended is when scum are trying to buddy up with me. Or since he has played a few games he is just trying to let newbies know what I was doing. Still FOS for now. This is his answer to why he did it, and to be honest, it worked, he got stuff going which is good. I will be keeping an eye out, but at this point his reasoning seems good enough for me. As you said earlier, delaying discussion is indicative of scummy behaviour, or perhaps it might not be? An elaborate ruse? In that post he says that my quick day one vote was a good move to getting the ball rolling as well as scummy. It has been over 24 hours since he has posted anything, I think after his near miss he has been spoked into hiding. Also Risk died defending him, what is a better claim then saying the person protecting me was innocent so I must be as well. hacklebeast Its been over 48 hours since he has posted that is fucking crazy if you ask me, Hackle you need to post a lot more and now. Otherwise its going to be a mod kill | ||
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Ciryandor
United States3735 Posts
On November 03 2011 08:08 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: Ciryandor, I would also like to hear what your current thoughts are when you get the chance. You've posted today, but none of your usual analysis yet. Just woke up and heading into work in a bit. I've got a big event that I'm staffing for so expect very very spotty presence from me until Saturday evening in Korea time. However, a quick read-through just makes me wonder why hyshes suddenly is screaming that drem and I are scum, simply because I didn't vote drem but I bothered to put together a big post-by-post of his activity in this game. I might have the time to dig through hyshes' posts one by one like I did with drem and Skrammen, but right now, drem's pinging very bad on my scum radar right now. Just as an example, drem's multiple mistakes in this game: On November 03 2011 03:25 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: First hyshes posts some shitty logic, then Drem doesn't realize that according to the OP there are: 3 of 3 MAFIA remaining We would have been left with 7 out of 10 people. What the fuck people? First he says we're going to be near LYLO territory if he had lynched someone. Then: On November 03 2011 03:35 Drem903 wrote: you know, if you guys want to lynch me for having shitty reading comprehension and screwing up the lynch day 1 for not realizing there were only 3 mafia.... then i would not blame you. We still have a much larger majority, so it's still not the worst situation. Also, even if we did succeed, all it would take was 2 other indecisive townies to vote differently (or vote with mafia unwittingly), to have nothing done today. Either way i could have screwed up much worse, and i do apologize for making the noobiest mistake possible. Dude, even if all the scum managed to convince two townies to vote for other people and they voted for the same person, if the whole town sees fit to try and lynch someone (6 townies), we still get a lynch, not another no-lynch day. I'm going to call him out on spreading FUD to people who don't count the lynches required. ## Vote Drem903 On that note, I still believe Skrammen's hardcore lurking worth looking at, and I can switch if people still believe Skrammen is more scummy based on my analysis and subsequent inactivity after I FOSed him then he barely escaped the lynch. Still, it does not remove the fact that what Drem did in spreading the second point I just highlighted reeks of scum play. | ||
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Chocolate
United States2350 Posts
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IMABUNNEH
United Kingdom1062 Posts
On November 03 2011 07:57 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: @Toad, he said if he flips red risk and bunneh have issues. Not if he flips green. He said that because risk and bunneh defended him. I can't talk for risk, but as far as myself I don't think defended is the right word. On the first day I didn't think he'd done enough to be suspicious enough to be lynched, whereas I thought Toad most definately had. Since then, with his posting suddenly disappearing, and a couple of his posts just before that, you can see I definately became more suspicious of him. Between him and Toad it dropped to 50/50, and I'm still certain one of them has to be red. Too many explanations for what's happened so far leads to one of those 2 being a logically sound conclusion, and risk being killed just adds weight that there was something going on there. If I'm next on the hitlist though, I would actually think Skrammen over Toads, as obviously he wouldn't be dumb enough to kill his only 2 "supporters". Perhaps. Hyshes I jus reread the whole thread and i'm going to post a hard statement here. Ciryandor - Toadesstern - Drem903 See I actually agree with the other feelings on this. Ciry, Toad and Drem have all (if I'm remembering right as I post) been reasonably aggressive towards each other at certain points in this game, including (withdrawn?) votes. If all 3 of them are scum, I think I would eat my own foot. Any one of them you could probably put together a reasonable case for if you took their posts in a vacuum, but all 3 together, with context, just doesn't make ANY sense, and seems to be a method of saying "Hey guys look at them!"... which is another way of saying "Don't look at me even though I'm here!" However I also don't like what I saw with Toad and Drem's initial voting today. They voted for each other, and then both withdrew their votes from each other. Their reasoning was both "I was too hasty, these guys are totally more suspicious", and that makes me suspicious of both of them. Unless they were votes to see how people would react, remarkably synched together in reasoning, it seems too much of a coincidence to me. However, I don't like that Skrammen hasn't posted since barely surviving. He's hiding too much for me, and my suspicion of him has basically done nothing since go up since I refused to vote for him. Unless I see something compelling from him, I'm going to have to make a provisional ##Vote SKrammen Unless he posts something worthwhile, and worth waiting for, I'm unlikely to change this despite my other suspicions. It keeps coming back to him and Toads, but at least Toad doesn't look like he's trying to hide. | ||
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hyshes
Belgium428 Posts
##Vote Drem903 Drem is also on my list and there seems to be no backup for a vote on toad. | ||
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Drem903
United States100 Posts
On November 03 2011 09:44 Chocolate wrote: Drem seems almost absolutely mafia to me. Tomorrow evening I will try to compile a list of who everyone has accused/fosd to make it easier for us to identify who the mafia are, or at least who is ignoring who. TBH drem seems suspicious because he is throwing accusations everywhere and the main people he is accusing are the ones who are after him. Yes I am very suspicious of hacklebeast, especially since he hasn't posted since the end of the last day, but I don't see much more to be suspicious of because he has only two posts of any substance. the people i've accused genuinely accused: Zanfada (not great reasoning, but it was only my first day, and he just seemed suspicious), SKrammen, YOU, hackle, and Toad. Of those 5 Toad and SK are the one's i've been constant about, and toad is the only one to make any real accusations against me. Zanfada i hold no real suspicion of anymore. You claim that i only accuse those who have accused me, but the only person that MIGHT be true for is Toad, but i had expressed suspicion of Toad before he ever accused me of anything, so you're point there is moot. You're even a hypocrite, as you are doing exactly what you accuse me of. I express doubt that you are town, and just a few hours later you show up to defend yourself from the first real accusation against you, and immediately say that i am definitely mafia. That sounds like something scum would do if they were genuinely concerned they'd be caught. | ||
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IMABUNNEH
United Kingdom1062 Posts
Unless he posts something worthwhile, and worth waiting for, I'm unlikely to change this despite my other suspicions. Just quoting myself to add something to this. This is my current viewpoint with our current information, and this is a serious vote. However I don't think we can risk a no-lynch again. We all know full well the reasonings behind SKrammen, though I could elaborate for anyone who has missed the last 5 pages. However I think if we have enough people near the end of the day voting for someone specific but are still split, it would benefit us to force the lynch to at least get some real information. I would be extremely suspicious after Day 1 of anyone who may be trying to block a lynch from occurring. | ||
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Skrammen
Norway195 Posts
The reason for this is that at that point, bunneh and risk were defending me, and thus me flipping would be bad news for them. Perhaps pretty redundant but still true. So lets think about it. Risk turned out to be green. If I were a red, how would I benefit from his death? He blocked my lynch, and he seemed pretty adamant about my affiliations. Now that he's gone it might reinforce any suspicions you have of me or toad, which is exactly what the scum wants, they want either of us lynched on day 2. Your vote for Drem earlier was a vote for the sake of voting, nothing solid to go on. Your unvote was also on very poor grounds. What I do think of this situation is that me and toad are just two townies pointing fingers at each other. I've not removed you from my list of people to look at, but at this point in time, I do not think you are a scum. You're pointing fingers at basically everyone in this game, which is either poor mafia play or good townie play. At this point its obvious that either one of us is a scum, or none of us. Lets look at the votes from the previous day: + Show Spoiler + 1. risk.nuke Toadesstern 2. HarbingerOfDoom Skrammen 3. Toadesstern Skrammen 4. Zanfada Skrammen 5. xsksc Skrammen 6. Ciryandor Skrammen 7. hacklebeast toadesstern 8. Skrammen Chocolate 9. hyshes Zanfada 10. Drem903 Zanfada 11. IMABUNNEH Toadesstern 12. Chocolate Skrammen I do not think there would be more than 1 mafia voting for me. Risk voted Toadsstern and we know he turned out to be town. Hacklebeast also voted for him, and so did bunneh. But what if we consider hyshes and drem's vote on Zanfada to be a safe-vote, so to speak? Or do you think this is very poor mafia play? At this point im not sure, but im pointing my finger on drem. + Show Spoiler + the people i've accused genuinely accused: Zanfada (not great reasoning, but it was only my first day, and he just seemed suspicious), SKrammen, YOU, hackle, and Toad. If we say that he would not accuse a fellow mafia, there is stil chocolate, bunneh, hyshes, ciry, xskcx and HoD left. Now, I believe there is somthing there worth investigating. + Show Spoiler + Of those 5 Toad and SK are the one's i've been constant about, and toad is the only one to make any real accusations against me. Zanfada i hold no real suspicion of anymore. Why not vote me? Seems like an easy lynch. It would probably give you some answers, too. But you knew that I would flip green, and when that happened you do not want to be on the list as a scum. + Show Spoiler + 1) His posts are long when a simple reply could answer the question (disregarding his analysis post on risk). As scum he's using longer posts to try and cover all possible points that could indicate him to be Mafia. Yes, or perhaps his excuse is a valid one. I made a comment about time-zones and it nearly got me lynched. + Show Spoiler + 2) The only person who would benefit from Risk's death is Toad. Now, my earlier statement on that was it could be a Mafia ploy to distract us, but that would also be immediately obvious so it could be a double trick (kill risk to get suspicion on toad, but we realize that and stop focusing on toad, and then toad is mafia so it was just a convoluted trap that could work). At this point it just gets into an infinite chain of back and forth. Now this is interesting. You're right - it could be a double trick. Or a triple trick, or whatever. I think getting rid of risk is too obvious, and I dont think it would benefit him. Sometimes there is not a hidden meaning, and sometimes the most obvious answer is the right one. But we can not be 100% certain untill we get some lynching done. At this time, I believe Drem to be a valid lynch. Another day without a lynch is getting us nowhere. ## Vote Drem903 | ||
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Skrammen
Norway195 Posts
During the 2~ hours it took me to write up a post i changed my mind about this. I still think his reasoning was poor, but I found what I think is a better reason for it, and I went with it. | ||
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Drem903
United States100 Posts
If i had changed my vote to you, and you flipped green, everyone who voted for you would have been under heavy suspicion of being scum. So that's 7 people, of which i was 1, so what reasoning would i have to block you're vote if i was mafia? I wouldn't be that much more suspicious than any of the other 6. For every towny that dies the mafia becomes stronger. If was mafia and had changed my vote to you, and i had said you were suspicious so it's not unlikely for a person to decide to agree with the majority if they had similar convictions, then why would i not vote for you to get you out of the way? The fact is, i didn't have enough conviction to accuse you as i didn't feel that you were necessarily scum. I wasn't convinced enough to take that risk. Bad townie play? possibly. Even worse mafia play? i would believe so. | ||
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HarbingerOfDoom
United States508 Posts
Since you reappeared, I would like to reassert my earlier request; If you value your life, please make a post of the following: 1) At least 2, preferably 3 people you think are scum 2) Explanations and some analysis of why you think they are scum 3) At least 2, preferably more, people you think are town, excluding yourself 4) Explanations of why you think they are town 5) What you think the goal of the risk.nuke shooting was | ||
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HarbingerOfDoom
United States508 Posts
Have you reconsidered your 3 scum picks yet? If Ciry and Drem are both scum, why would Ciry now be voting for and bringing intense scrutiny to Drem? Do you honestly think that mafia would be bussing one of their players on day 2? | ||
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hyshes
Belgium428 Posts
On November 03 2011 11:17 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: @hyshes Have you reconsidered your 3 scum picks yet? If Ciry and Drem are both scum, why would Ciry now be voting for and bringing intense scrutiny to Drem? Do you honestly think that mafia would be bussing one of their players on day 2? Actually i would call that good play. Atleast in my head does that line up with good tactics. | ||
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Skrammen
Norway195 Posts
On November 03 2011 11:09 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: @Skrammen Since you reappeared, I would like to reassert my earlier request; If you value your life, please make a post of the following: 1) At least 2, preferably 3 people you think are scum 2) Explanations and some analysis of why you think they are scum 3) At least 2, preferably more, people you think are town, excluding yourself 4) Explanations of why you think they are town 5) What you think the goal of the risk.nuke shooting was I'm going to reply to this quickly for now, and I will come back with a more thorough respons once I get my sleep. I've been busy all day and its getting late over here. 1) At this point I think atleast Drem is a scum. Im suspicious of Hyshes and chocolate, but Toad is still on my radar. 3) I think Bunneh is a townie. Ciry seems pro-town and I havnt made my mind up about the rest of them, but im about 50-50 on Zanfada and yourself. 5) I believe the biggest reason for getting rid of risk is to get either me or toad lynched today. If I get lynched and flip green, toad is very very suspicious. If toad gets lynched and flips green then that would put pressure on me and those who pushed toad the most. | ||
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HarbingerOfDoom
United States508 Posts
I thought you were going to look into my post history and make a statement regarding it? Am I not special enough for that? :-( Once I'm home from work and not on lunchbreak I'll pull up Harbinger's post history as well, see what gems are hiding there, because of point 3, unless someone beats me to it. It's definately something worth looking into, especially as he was a part of the Skrammen "bandwagon". | ||
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HarbingerOfDoom
United States508 Posts
Who are three or four people you think are the most likely to be town? A bit on why if possible would be helpful, although I know explanations are not your strong point. | ||
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Drem903
United States100 Posts
Reasons: 1) most of his posts were irrelevant to discussion, and were likely there to just look like he was contributing without doing so. + Show Spoiler + On November 01 2011 08:41 Chocolate wrote: He needs to defend himself more if he wants to lose my vote, and probably others (can't say for sure). Also @risk.nuke, I was amused when I saw your reasoning behind not voting on skrammen. It seems a little hypocritical to defend someone and say nobody is defending him. But you still bring up a valid point. Here's a list of players and votes+ Show Spoiler + 1. risk.nuke Toadesstern 2. HarbingerOfDoom Skrammen 3. Toadesstern Skrammen 4. Zanfada Skrammen 5. xsksc Skrammen 6. Ciryandor Skrammen 7. hacklebeast toadesstern 8. Skrammen Chocolate 9. hyshes Zanfada 10. Drem903 Zanfada 11. IMABUNNEH Toadesstern 12. Chocolate Skrammen This post in particular is strange. He responds to people's question on his motivation for voting for SK, but his reasoning is simple "i want him to post more". That's pretty crappy reasoning considering there were plenty of people with even less posted, that had contributed just as little, and you had expressed no prior suspicion. The list is also out of place. It's just there. Why? Why write up a list if you're not going to make any comments about it. There was no reason, to write it other than useless padding (again, to build the illusion of helping) 2)Again i direct you to my earlier post, you accuse me of only posting when being attacked yet you are doing exactly that. Not only that, you're original statement didn't really have any evidence against me to begin with. 3) You really don't give any reason to vote for me other than "he accused a few other people", which is something that almost everyone here has done. You yourself said you were suspicious of several people, and never made anything of it. So how am i any worse off than you are. Also, it was only Toad that ever accused me of everything. The other people i accused never said anything about me. 4)Finally, you were gone for nearly 24h. You said you were busy all day, which isn't impossible, but a full 24 hour period is longer than a day, and i doubt you were unable to contribute anything to the thread at some point in that time interval. -you can ignore my 4th point if you want as he really could have been unable to post for an entire day, but it is equally likely that it was an excuse- | ||
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HarbingerOfDoom
United States508 Posts
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