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I was thinking of waiting until I have some more info, but the more I look at it the more confident I am.
Hyshes is SCUM
Why do I say this? To start, let's begin with some simple facts:
1) The only people with knowledge of this game not contained within this thread are scum, or a detective.
2) People with the same knowledge, reading the same thread, should come to similar conclusions, and these conclusions should converge as time passes and information accumulates.
And then Hyshes drops this on us:
I jus reread the whole thread and i'm going to post a hard statement here.
Ciryandor - Toadesstern - Drem903
These 3 are referring to each other all the time, without direct accusations. This leaves me to think that they don't want eachother lynched.. but wan to have a backup of posts that do kinda disconnect them. There is something really fishy between those 3. I'm willing to go on a vote on one of these three for sure.
Well what in the fuck is that? Ciry is near the top of most people's town lists. Now we have Hyshes listing him as scum?
Then there is Toad, this guy is very active, answers anything asked of his immediately, and his posting method seems to be make the post, and double post if he needs to edit it. That carefree and transparent posting manner seems pretty townie to me. Given that besides Hyshes only Drem and Skrammen have called any suspicion on Toad so far today, and even they do not put him on top of their lists. I think it is clear at least most people do not see Toad as very scummy right now.
As for Drem...well, he is actually a target for some. Perhaps he was included to try to give some more credibility to this list? Also, given this: + Show Spoiler +Show nested quote +On November 03 2011 11:17 HarbingerOfDoom wrote:
@hyshes
Have you reconsidered your 3 scum picks yet? If Ciry and Drem are both scum, why would Ciry now be voting for and bringing intense scrutiny to Drem? Do you honestly think that mafia would be bussing one of their players on day 2? Actually i would call that good play. Atleast in my head does that line up with good tactics.
So how could his list make sense? I think we have three options here:
1) He is a dt, checked Ciry, and Ciry came up red. We are not even guaranteed to have a dt, and if we did I would find it absurd that they would check Ciry first. I will be generous and give this 1% probability.
2) His reading comprehension is awful at best, and he therefore managed to come to a conclusion very different from anyone else. This is a newbie game, and his country listed on his profile isn't an english speaking one, so I will again be very generous, and give this a 9% chance.
3) He is scum and his list makes sense because he knows who really is scum, and because he wants to do as much as possible to discredit and cast suspicion on townies. I give this the remaining 90% probability.
So, just from that it is looking very likely to me that Hyshes is scum, but let's go into some more detail. I will present my arguments in order of what I think their strength is, with the strongest ones first.
What about his overall presence in the game?
+ Show Spoiler + He posts a reasonable amount, but mostly says very little, does no real analysis, and overall makes no contributions to town efforts. He also makes one posts indirectly defending inactivity: @IMABUNNEH even though i don't like inactives either, direct attacks seem a bit off. Much more interesting than that though, is how often he asks people questions. Let's review every question he has directed at players in the thread. So who is left on the list of non-poster? A useless filler post that he could easily answer himself. Toadesstern, could you please direct your questions to people in specific? We can not always be sure who you mean with "you" (just because i'm not sure if you are asking me anything) Again, not really looking for information from Toad, just checking to see if he is supposed to answer something. btw Ciryandor , are you going to spend post #2000 in a newbie mafia game? Once again a filler post. And that's it. He literally wants no information from his fellow players. How could that possibly be? Easy, he knows everything important because Hyshes is scum.
Next, let's investigate his issues regarding the vote deadline:
+ Show Spoiler +I was actually around when the day ended but because the [*time*] thingy of teamliquid did not change until past night for european timezones (we had a timeshift saturday) i missed it by a few minutes. (you can ask our host, i msged him about it) that is what i said... i needed a vote to not get modkilled.. so i voted for the most suspicous person back then... I probably would have chosen for a lynch if i didn't miss the deadline... (but that is void now) While I understand there may have been some confusion regarding the time, why didn't he make a post in the thread then? Also, why did he message the host about it? I think most townies would have posted their vote change, or at least their question, in the thread and hoped for the best. But perhaps he had a question about night actions that he wanted to ask the host as well so he just bundled it up with that, perhaps a question about role-blocking or killing. Or maybe because he is scum, he knew whether or not Skrammen is. If Skrammen is scum, no reason to change your vote and get your buddy killed. If he isn't scum, being the last person to last second change their vote to get a townie lynched would seem scummy as hell. Either way, best to keep quiet.
How about his lovely analysis to support his position?
+ Show Spoiler +Show nested quote +On November 03 2011 04:40 HarbingerOfDoom wrote:
@hyshes
What about hackle being scum? Surely you don't have enough info on him to tell whether he is scum or town yet, how would he not offer an alternative explanation? I know you are claiming that is the only explanation you can figure out, but since on my reading of the thread I don't see it, can you please spell it out for me a bit more? Pointing out specific posts and parts of posts that you think make them seem scummy, and implicate them in risk's death would be appreciated. Hackle is a difficult one. He has posted really little. On the other question: i'm having a real problem explaining it. It's just a combination of the weird risk kill and all the weird post of those 3. You know what makes it really difficult to give a reason for people being scum? Knowing that they aren't scum. Even when pressed repeatedly his best explanations are along the lines of "I thought it was obvious" and "it was the only explanation I could figure out".I can figure out a ton of possible scenarios, why? Because I only know what is in this thread, unlike Hyshes. His complete refusal to include Hackle to produce an alternative explanation compounds the problem. I think most townies can envision at least one scenario where Hackle nicely fits the role of the third scum that they can't seem to find otherwise.
Now, lets take a look at his day 1 voting:
+ Show Spoiler + Day 1 he votes for Zanfada. While I think some townies were genuinely suspicious of Zanfada, I also think scum saw his early vote and decided to use it to feed the idea that Zanfada is scummy, despite the fact that attention-getting, aggressive moves that start the initial conversations going are rarely how scum will start a game off. I also think scum was unlikely to pool their votes. If they all voted for Skrammen and he flipped green, they would be grouped together and absolutely fucked. Therefore I find it very likely that one of the votes for Zanfada was from scum. It is interesting to note that since day 2 started nobody has accused Zanfada of being scum, and he has even made several townie lists. I think this is clear evidence in scum involvement in throwing suspicion on him.
Possibly of note, the following people called some suspicion on Zanfada day 1: Drem, Chocolate, Skraamen, Hyshes, Xsksc, Bunneh.
And now his day 2 voting:
+ Show Spoiler +##Unvote Toadesstern
##Vote Drem903
Drem is also on my list and there seems to be no backup for a vote on toad. Changing your vote to go with someone else that you think is scum and can get lynched can obviously be a townie move, however, I find it very interesting that he started with a vote for Toad. I think perhaps that scum had hoped to raise suspicion on Toad with the shooting of Risk, and this vote was an attempt to increase the pressure and suspicion on him. Upon seeing that isn't happening, he simply switches to Drem and leaves it at that. Again, this is possibly a null-read, but something to consider as well.
In conclusion, Hyshes is SCUM, lynch him.
##Vote Hyshes
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On November 03 2011 07:57 HarbingerOfDoom wrote:
@Toad, he said if he flips red risk and bunneh have issues. Not if he flips green. He said that because risk and bunneh defended him.
oh yeah... should have went to bad instead of posting half asleep :p
That was just bullshit coming out of me.
Right now I'd still like to push for hackle the most. Drem and skrammen both are strange but I'm not sure about both right now. Drems mistake the other day is just so simple it got to be a real mistake rather than a scumslip. Also given he doesen't know how many mafias are in this game I'd sag he's not mafia. I still got a feeling skrammen might be green,
I'm off to univerity now and will look this through later on.
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Also, made my post before harbs most recent one. Read it and I'm going to check hyshes history myself once I'm back to get a little context but from what he quoted it seems legit. Just depends on wheter or not he left out important information, therefore checking for context is important.
However, if he really is not interested in finding mafia at all (which is basicly your first point, yeah he might say he wants to get them but he's not doing so if what you said it correct) that's terribly looking weird.
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Thats a pretty strong case harbringer, not gonna vote on it yet though.
I'm pretty torn between drem skrammen and toad at the moment, gonna re-read the thread again before I decide my vote.
We NEED a lynch today, day 1 was terrible with people leaving votes on people who were never gonna get lynched, so we missed a lot of potential information there.
I think my scum list at the moment would be something like this
1) Toad OR Skrammen
2) Drem
3) Hyshes or some random inactive like Hackle
This list is definitely not set in stone, I only recently added drem to it and hyshes could probably be replaced by a lot of people I haven't properly looked at yet.
Harbringers case is good, but it doesn't make me 100% feel hes scum.
Will update when I've finished re-reading/filtering.
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EBWOP
Just woke up btw , I can't be on during USA evening/night time, its the middle of night for me and I have an early start 
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On November 03 2011 15:08 HarbingerOfDoom wrote:I was thinking of waiting until I have some more info, but the more I look at it the more confident I am. Hyshes is SCUMWhy do I say this? To start, let's begin with some simple facts: 1) The only people with knowledge of this game not contained within this thread are scum, or a detective. 2) People with the same knowledge, reading the same thread, should come to similar conclusions, and these conclusions should converge as time passes and information accumulates. And then Hyshes drops this on us: Show nested quote +I jus reread the whole thread and i'm going to post a hard statement here.
Ciryandor - Toadesstern - Drem903
These 3 are referring to each other all the time, without direct accusations. This leaves me to think that they don't want eachother lynched.. but wan to have a backup of posts that do kinda disconnect them. There is something really fishy between those 3. I'm willing to go on a vote on one of these three for sure. Well what in the fuck is that? Ciry is near the top of most people's town lists. Now we have Hyshes listing him as scum? Then there is Toad, this guy is very active, answers anything asked of his immediately, and his posting method seems to be make the post, and double post if he needs to edit it. That carefree and transparent posting manner seems pretty townie to me. Given that besides Hyshes only Drem and Skrammen have called any suspicion on Toad so far today, and even they do not put him on top of their lists. I think it is clear at least most people do not see Toad as very scummy right now. As for Drem...well, he is actually a target for some. Perhaps he was included to try to give some more credibility to this list? Also, given this: + Show Spoiler +Show nested quote +On November 03 2011 11:17 HarbingerOfDoom wrote:
@hyshes
Have you reconsidered your 3 scum picks yet? If Ciry and Drem are both scum, why would Ciry now be voting for and bringing intense scrutiny to Drem? Do you honestly think that mafia would be bussing one of their players on day 2? Actually i would call that good play. Atleast in my head does that line up with good tactics. It is also not entirely out of the question that Hyshes is willing to indict a fellow scum, although I would not say it is the most likely. So how could his list make sense? I think we have three options here: 1) He is a dt, checked Ciry, and Ciry came up red. We are not even guaranteed to have a dt, and if we did I would find it absurd that they would check Ciry first. I will be generous and give this 1% probability. 2) His reading comprehension is awful at best, and he therefore managed to come to a conclusion very different from anyone else. This is a newbie game, and his country listed on his profile isn't an english speaking one, so I will again be very generous, and give this a 9% chance. 3) He is scum and his list makes sense because he knows who really is scum, and because he wants to do as much as possible to discredit and cast suspicion on townies. I give this the remaining 90% probability. So, just from that it is looking very likely to me that Hyshes is scum, but let's go into some more detail. I will present my arguments in order of what I think their strength is, with the strongest ones first. What about his overall presence in the game? + Show Spoiler + He posts a reasonable amount, but mostly says very little, does no real analysis, and overall makes no contributions to town efforts. He also makes one posts indirectly defending inactivity: @IMABUNNEH even though i don't like inactives either, direct attacks seem a bit off. Much more interesting than that though, is how often he asks people questions. Let's review every question he has directed at players in the thread. So who is left on the list of non-poster? A useless filler post that he could easily answer himself. Toadesstern, could you please direct your questions to people in specific? We can not always be sure who you mean with "you" (just because i'm not sure if you are asking me anything) Again, not really looking for information from Toad, just checking to see if he is supposed to answer something. btw Ciryandor , are you going to spend post #2000 in a newbie mafia game? Once again a filler post. And that's it. He literally wants no information from his fellow players. How could that possibly be? Easy, he knows everything important because Hyshes is scum.Next, let's investigate his issues regarding the vote deadline: + Show Spoiler +I was actually around when the day ended but because the [*time*] thingy of teamliquid did not change until past night for european timezones (we had a timeshift saturday) i missed it by a few minutes. (you can ask our host, i msged him about it) that is what i said... i needed a vote to not get modkilled.. so i voted for the most suspicous person back then... I probably would have chosen for a lynch if i didn't miss the deadline... (but that is void now) While I understand there may have been some confusion regarding the time, why didn't he make a post in the thread then? Also, why did he message the host about it? I think most townies would have posted their vote change, or at least their question, in the thread and hoped for the best. But perhaps he had a question about night actions that he wanted to ask the host as well so he just bundled it up with that, perhaps a question about role-blocking or killing. Or maybe because he is scum, he knew whether or not Skrammen is. If Skrammen is scum, no reason to change your vote and get your buddy killed. If he isn't scum, being the last person to last second change their vote to get a townie lynched would seem scummy as hell. Either way, best to keep quiet. How about his lovely analysis to support his position? + Show Spoiler +Show nested quote +On November 03 2011 04:40 HarbingerOfDoom wrote:
@hyshes
What about hackle being scum? Surely you don't have enough info on him to tell whether he is scum or town yet, how would he not offer an alternative explanation? I know you are claiming that is the only explanation you can figure out, but since on my reading of the thread I don't see it, can you please spell it out for me a bit more? Pointing out specific posts and parts of posts that you think make them seem scummy, and implicate them in risk's death would be appreciated. Hackle is a difficult one. He has posted really little. On the other question: i'm having a real problem explaining it. It's just a combination of the weird risk kill and all the weird post of those 3. You know what makes it really difficult to give a reason for people being scum? Knowing that they aren't scum. Even when pressed repeatedly his best explanations are along the lines of "I thought it was obvious" and "it was the only explanation I could figure out".I can figure out a ton of possible scenarios, why? Because I only know what is in this thread, unlike Hyshes. His complete refusal to include Hackle to produce an alternative explanation compounds the problem. I think most townies can envision at least one scenario where Hackle nicely fits the role of the third scum that they can't seem to find otherwise. Now, lets take a look at his day 1 voting: + Show Spoiler + Day 1 he votes for Zanfada. While I think some townies were genuinely suspicious of Zanfada, I also think scum saw his early vote and decided to use it to feed the idea that Zanfada is scummy, despite the fact that attention-getting, aggressive moves that start the initial conversations going are rarely how scum will start a game off. I also think scum was unlikely to pool their votes. If they all voted for Skrammen and he flipped green, they would be grouped together and absolutely fucked. Therefore I find it very likely that one of the votes for Zanfada was from scum. It is interesting to note that since day 2 started nobody has accused Zanfada of being scum, and he has even made several townie lists. I think this is clear evidence in scum involvement in throwing suspicion on him.
Possibly of note, the following people called some suspicion on Zanfada day 1: Drem, Chocolate, Skraamen, Hyshes, Xsksc, Bunneh. And now his day 2 voting: + Show Spoiler +##Unvote Toadesstern
##Vote Drem903
Drem is also on my list and there seems to be no backup for a vote on toad. Changing your vote to go with someone else that you think is scum and can get lynched can obviously be a townie move, however, I find it very interesting that he started with a vote for Toad. I think perhaps that scum had hoped to raise suspicion on Toad with the shooting of Risk, and this vote was an attempt to increase the pressure and suspicion on him. Upon seeing that isn't happening, he simply switches to Drem and leaves it at that. Again, this is possibly a null-read, but something to consider as well. In conclusion, Hyshes is SCUM, lynch him. ##Vote Hyshes
Yeah sure, lynch me.
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Ok guys i got the solution. After all it's a team game.
Lynch me
red: wohoo! scum kill
green/blue: please promise me that you will lynch the obvious ones
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Actually, for me it's kinda obvious who the 4 (3scum + 1 detective) persons are who have extra information. Obviously I'm not gonna post the 4 names, since otherwise the 3 scum will kill the detective next night. What i will do is try to find in my list of 4 a certain scum and post this with a analysis.
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wtf is this hyshes. I am almost certain harb's green. I'm not going to stop voteing for you because of those 3 posts and to tell the truth all 3 aren't exactly looking town.
I've got my vote on hyshes as well
## Vote Hyshes
Also how do you know we got a dt? We don't have to have one. Yeah couple of people look blue but they could be medics as well or one medic one dt or whatever. And btw that could be a reason why mafia did not go for obvious lynches as well. Maybe they feared there actually is a medic who would get a hero safe on someone like ciry on day1.
A townie is just not going to say "yeah go ahead and lynch me" just because of one vote, no matter how strong the case. He would try to defend and tell the guy where his mistake is to make sure he's not getting lynched because after all, a 100% townie lynch is worse than a 90% townie lynch. After all you know for certain if you are town or not.
I did the same although I phrased it a little bit different. I told you to lynch either skrammen or me as I thought it's the only majoritys we're going to get today and since I know I'm not mafia I went for skrammen because I thought he's something about 50% town which is still better than a lynch on me.
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Also if you REALLY know 3 scums + dt (however that's possible) there would be no problem to tell us. Yeah our dt would die but who cares if we got a 100% proof list of those 3 scums (which is never going to happen). So that last post just makes no sense. Maybe you got a decent idea, I think I got a decent idea of who might be blue and who might be mafia too but I'm not going to be as bold to say I'm 100% sure.
Additionally a DT really hasn't that much extra information. I'd say (that is if we got one!) he either checked skrammen or me on night1. So he either knows if I'm red/green or if skrammen is red/green but that's still 9 people left (11 - 1 he checked - himself) he's completly unaware of.
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Oh and to just clear things up again before a bunch of crazy people come around and yell at me "you just told him to tell who's the blue guy". That's not what I meant. I said if he really had a 100% proof list than there would be no problem in telling us. This 100% list is not possible at this point in time. No matter how much information you got unless you're mafia (even in that case you only got a decent guess on who is blue). So that's just an impossible scenario.
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##unvote drem
##vote hyshes
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On November 03 2011 11:41 HarbingerOfDoom wrote:@Bunneh I thought you were going to look into my post history and make a statement regarding it? Am I not special enough for that? :-( Show nested quote +Once I'm home from work and not on lunchbreak I'll pull up Harbinger's post history as well, see what gems are hiding there, because of point 3, unless someone beats me to it. It's definately something worth looking into, especially as he was a part of the Skrammen "bandwagon".
I will but it won't be for a few hours. Last night I went out after work, came home a bit worse for wear, got in the post that I did, but wasn't up to reading your full post history. I will have it analysed as townie or scum before the votes are finalised tonight though. From a quick scan (mostly from the posts you specifically pulled, so take it with a grain of salt  ) I don't think you're showing up as Red, or at least not top 3 suspects.
##unvote drem
##vote hyshes
I no longer have a clue what hyshes is doing. Either he's a townie who has gone all emo because people put such a good case on him, or he's scum doing the stupidest thing."I could try and defend myself, or I can just agree to vote myself".
Yet if he was townie, why would he vote to have himself lynched? There's still time for him to put forward a case either to defend himself, or to make a case on somebody else. But instead he just spent the last 3 or 4 posts saying "Yeah lynch me". Wtf is that? A townie can be open and honest, the mafia are the ones far more likely to try and play silly bugger mind games like that.
FOS hyshes.
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1) We got a case here
2) If he is not willing to defend himself himself we can't stop lynching him because of that, because it's not making sense
3) The only possible thing is him being red and thinking he's going to get lynched anyway so he might as well try that one.
NO Townie want's to get himself lynched unless it's not possible to not get lynched for some strange reasons, but he'd still try to prevent it (look at my case).
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OK yeah wtf, thats really weird behaviour hyshes, and definitely enough for me to place a vote on you.
You're either retarded town or scum with no defence.
##vote Hyshes
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On November 03 2011 21:36 Toadesstern wrote:
1) We got a case here
2) If he is not willing to defend himself himself we can't stop lynching him because of that, because it's not making sense
3) The only possible thing is him being red and thinking he's going to get lynched anyway so he might as well try that one.
NO Townie want's to get himself lynched unless it's not possible to not get lynched for some strange reasons, but he'd still try to prevent it (look at my case).
I'm going to agree with this. What townie would try and get themselves lynched? All that does is dick the town over even more, so either he's given up playing, which means no big loss, or for reasons stated above, he's scum. I can barely even analyse it on any meaningful level, there's basically nothing to say.
I don't see what this could achieve as a townie, and it's definately enough to change my vote for today. hyshes is scum.
##unvote SKrammen
##vote hyshes
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I could consider a vote on myself as a townie if I already got a majority. In that case one could argue it's probably ok because otherwise you're going to die anyway but this just makes no sense with 1 vote on him and a post from harb.
Also if I would consider voting myself as I townie I sure as hell would make a big post. Knowing I'm going to die I would write down everything I know / think to be true with everything that could possibly help town once they see I flipped green.
However I would NOT just go ahead and write "yeah fine whatevs, lynch me" without something else.
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I'm not retarded, and this aint stupid play either. It's the only play i got left to have a possible chance on a town win. I'm just kinda hoping it will open your eyes. I'm just offering good working material here. for that purpose, i'm willing to do a sacrifice here.
After my action here it will be 6towns vs 3 mafia (assuming mafia kills a townie next night), so still a good majority for the town. Maybe if towns is lucky, it will be 7vs3..
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Good working material? Lol, where?
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On November 03 2011 22:16 hyshes wrote:
I'm not retarded, and this aint stupid play either. It's the only play i got left to have a possible chance on a town win. I'm just kinda hoping it will open your eyes. I'm just offering good working material here. for that purpose, i'm willing to do a sacrifice here.
After my action here it will be 6towns vs 3 mafia (assuming mafia kills a townie next night), so still a good majority for the town. Maybe if towns is lucky, it will be 7vs3..
if you flip green we know exactly nothing except for the fact that you've pulled an emo here. It's not like harbs red because he went for you. If that'd true EVERYONE has to be red in here because everyone once accused someone (I guess)
If you flip red we know why you did it.
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EPT
