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Cosmic Horror Mafia - Page 15

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Tackster
Profile Joined February 2011
Ireland429 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-08-25 14:47:16
August 25 2011 14:46 GMT
#281
TWIST!!
Tackster: Can you give me a synonym of flammable? Deconduo: Inflammable...
Forumite
Profile Joined February 2011
Sweden3280 Posts
August 25 2011 14:53 GMT
#282
There goes our first extension, and we are none the wiser for it. I was hoping to be able to secure a lynch for the deadline, no luck there. I´m off for a few hours.
:3
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22632 Posts
August 25 2011 14:57 GMT
#283
As was I, but the two leading candidates are both not good lynches at the moment.
Computer says mafia
tnkted
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States1359 Posts
August 25 2011 16:56 GMT
#284
Maybe we should just lynch a lurker... eiii perhaps?
'I think "tnkted" may have justified this entire thread.' - Mjolnir
tnkted
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States1359 Posts
August 25 2011 16:58 GMT
#285
Or, someone could analyze the people who hopped on my wagon when it seemed convienent, there might be some slips there.
'I think "tnkted" may have justified this entire thread.' - Mjolnir
tnkted
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States1359 Posts
August 25 2011 16:58 GMT
#286
Sorry for triple post - I'm at work, no time to sit down and do it myself. I just don't want town to languish in afk land.
'I think "tnkted" may have justified this entire thread.' - Mjolnir
Cyber_Cheese
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Australia3615 Posts
August 25 2011 17:10 GMT
#287
Alright I hate to bring this up yet again, but I believe I've taken all the cons out of it in it's current implementation, and as such I fear it's been dismissed too soon

+ Show Spoiler [Breadcrumbing Revisited] +

The doc does not breadcrumb, straightforward.

The previous version was the rest of town feign visiting and psych tells the truth because the psych is our best lead on finding the horror
The forseen problem with that was that the EH would know who 'visited' them and if they didn't die, would know they were not worth a visit

So what if town agreed to which person the psych visits anonymously?
e.g. town agrees that psych should visit (I don't know, me?) and if the psych turns up dead we can assume hes (I'm in this case) the EH
I'm saying town should agree on who the psych should visit and no-one should breadcrumb themselves
essentially turning psych into a group role to avoid the being singled out as did/did not visit

psych dying could correlate to a) psych visited horror, b) horror visited psych or c) mafia attacked psych
if psyche is sane when he dies, we can rule out c, but c could happen the same night as a or b
if we don't know who the psych visits, we don't get any information on who EH might be, if we do, it's a 50/50
Bear in mind that if we can't prepare a strong argument for the person being the EH, we can still leave it at that and not lynch, and if we vote for the psych he can just not visit that night


Thoughts? Opinions?
The moment you lose confidence in yourself, is the moment the world loses it's confidence in you.
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22632 Posts
August 25 2011 17:19 GMT
#288
On August 26 2011 01:58 tnkted wrote:
Sorry for triple post - I'm at work, no time to sit down and do it myself. I just don't want town to languish in afk land.


Why do you not just want to switch the vote over to mr. wiggles?

Ferryman already pointed out some very suspicious stuff in his play, I added a couple of pointers to it. He has a stronger case against him than anyone else currently playing.

And I need to think harder about the implications of Cyber's plan, but I think that agreeing on which person the psych should visit, would indeed be the best way to proceed, that anonymously clears the person visited of being the EA.
Computer says mafia
Mr. Wiggles
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Canada5894 Posts
August 25 2011 17:31 GMT
#289
On August 25 2011 23:41 Palmar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 25 2011 23:36 Forumite wrote:
On August 25 2011 23:15 Palmar wrote:
On August 25 2011 23:07 Forumite wrote:
On August 25 2011 23:01 Palmar wrote:
I have a new strategy, I'll never vote for people I think are town. I'll actually force a no-lynch over it. I'm just not going to spam the thread away trying to convince people I'm right.
Right...


What's your reasoning to believe Wiggles is town?

I don´t trust the primary argument made against him. Meta is usefull, sometimes, but I don´t think it´s applicable in finding a new kind of 3rd party with an unknown optimal play, especially as the meta argument focused specifically on his first post, which wanted to start a discussion more than anything. Since then wiggles has sometimes overreacted in his defences, there might be something there, but some players has said that Wiggles is hard to read, and I´m prepared to trust that Meta more than what Ferryman brought up.


Then take a look at some of the things that have happened in the game.

Wiggles decided to vote Eiii in his opening post. There is nothing wrong with randomly voting, but the fact that he felt the need to specify it was a pressure vote (through linking an awesome song by bowie/queen), shows inherent signs of guilt, and not wanting to stick his neck out. I don't even understand what the purpose of voting someone with the intent of only pressuring would be. At he point in time he threw down that vote it'd have been more sensical to go after one of the players that have posted, or to simply claim the vote on Eiii was to get rid of lurkers.


Basically, that vote was because he was lurking, and because when he actually got around to posting, I wanted him to say something substantial and not just a one-liner before disappearing. The vote draws attention to him, and makes it harder to lurk unnoticed. As well, I was somewhat making fun of the random voting that was happening before my post, as people were all trying to pressure each other, and I was throwing my own in there as well.

Now, he's starting to post more again, and should hopefully pick up his activity and actually discuss things in the last 24 hours before the lynch.

I want to talk about this post, though:
On August 25 2011 23:01 Palmar wrote:
Actually screw it.

I have a new strategy, I'll never vote for people I think are town. I'll actually force a no-lynch over it. I'm just not going to spam the thread away trying to convince people I'm right.

##Unvote tnkted
##Vote Mr. Wiggles
Trying to force a no-lynch is pretty anti-town, as it gives mafia a free round of night kills without any extra information for town. (If mafia's smart, they're not going to hit town mislynch targets).

I'm also interested in this post, because it comes 45 minutes or so before the deadline for the lynch, when tnkted was at 6 votes. This means that he was in danger of having an additional person vote for him, assuring his lynch. By unvoting him, you assure that it will take at least two people to make sure the lynch goes through, and so close to the deadline, it is much more likely that we will instead be forced to use one of our extensions, much better saved for further days.

So, it seems likely to me, that either you and tnkted are scumbuddies and you wanted to save him from the lynch, or that only you yourself are scum, making what looks like a bold town statement in order to assure that the extension is used on Day 1.

##Unvote
##Vote Palmar
you gotta dance
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22632 Posts
August 25 2011 18:31 GMT
#290
I wanted to save him from the lynch.

That doesn't mean I'm scum, there is a logical leap you're taking right there. Could it possibly be that I'm a townie and I wanted to get another townie's head off the chopping block?

You intentionally avoid that scenario. I already explained my reasoning for thinking tnkted cannot be scum, you choose to ignore that to paint me red. This is basically you grasping at straws, knowing that you're against a wall.

I'm fine with it, I like a race between myself and you much better than a race between tnkted and cyber. And hopefully enough of town is reading the thread properly to see what's truly going on here.
Computer says mafia
Mr. Wiggles
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Canada5894 Posts
August 25 2011 18:45 GMT
#291
On August 26 2011 03:31 Palmar wrote:
I wanted to save him from the lynch.

That doesn't mean I'm scum, there is a logical leap you're taking right there. Could it possibly be that I'm a townie and I wanted to get another townie's head off the chopping block?

You intentionally avoid that scenario. I already explained my reasoning for thinking tnkted cannot be scum, you choose to ignore that to paint me red. This is basically you grasping at straws, knowing that you're against a wall.

I'm fine with it, I like a race between myself and you much better than a race between tnkted and cyber. And hopefully enough of town is reading the thread properly to see what's truly going on here.
Your reasoning for why tnkted "cannot" be scum is that he posted "lololo". That's very weak evidence to call someone town such that they "cannot" be scum. The only other thing I see, is you saying "But look at how he's posting!", which isn't exactly revealing. This takes away any responsibility for a mislynch off your back, because you can point out that you thought he was town even if you vote him, while not doing much to actually defend tnkted from a lynch or convince others that he's town.

Add on to that, that you did react oddly to tnkted's initial pressure (which makes me feel better about him being town when you flip scum), and that you've just been piggy-backing off of the Ferryman's analysis of me being the EA, also known as not mafia, and I think we've found our first red this game.
you gotta dance
Sevryn
Profile Joined September 2010
698 Posts
August 25 2011 18:52 GMT
#292
On August 26 2011 02:31 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 25 2011 23:41 Palmar wrote:
On August 25 2011 23:36 Forumite wrote:
On August 25 2011 23:15 Palmar wrote:
On August 25 2011 23:07 Forumite wrote:
On August 25 2011 23:01 Palmar wrote:
I have a new strategy, I'll never vote for people I think are town. I'll actually force a no-lynch over it. I'm just not going to spam the thread away trying to convince people I'm right.
Right...


What's your reasoning to believe Wiggles is town?

I don´t trust the primary argument made against him. Meta is usefull, sometimes, but I don´t think it´s applicable in finding a new kind of 3rd party with an unknown optimal play, especially as the meta argument focused specifically on his first post, which wanted to start a discussion more than anything. Since then wiggles has sometimes overreacted in his defences, there might be something there, but some players has said that Wiggles is hard to read, and I´m prepared to trust that Meta more than what Ferryman brought up.


Then take a look at some of the things that have happened in the game.

Wiggles decided to vote Eiii in his opening post. There is nothing wrong with randomly voting, but the fact that he felt the need to specify it was a pressure vote (through linking an awesome song by bowie/queen), shows inherent signs of guilt, and not wanting to stick his neck out. I don't even understand what the purpose of voting someone with the intent of only pressuring would be. At he point in time he threw down that vote it'd have been more sensical to go after one of the players that have posted, or to simply claim the vote on Eiii was to get rid of lurkers.


Basically, that vote was because he was lurking, and because when he actually got around to posting, I wanted him to say something substantial and not just a one-liner before disappearing. The vote draws attention to him, and makes it harder to lurk unnoticed. As well, I was somewhat making fun of the random voting that was happening before my post, as people were all trying to pressure each other, and I was throwing my own in there as well.

Now, he's starting to post more again, and should hopefully pick up his activity and actually discuss things in the last 24 hours before the lynch.

I want to talk about this post, though:
Show nested quote +
On August 25 2011 23:01 Palmar wrote:
Actually screw it.

I have a new strategy, I'll never vote for people I think are town. I'll actually force a no-lynch over it. I'm just not going to spam the thread away trying to convince people I'm right.

##Unvote tnkted
##Vote Mr. Wiggles
Trying to force a no-lynch is pretty anti-town, as it gives mafia a free round of night kills without any extra information for town. (If mafia's smart, they're not going to hit town mislynch targets).

I'm also interested in this post, because it comes 45 minutes or so before the deadline for the lynch, when tnkted was at 6 votes. This means that he was in danger of having an additional person vote for him, assuring his lynch. By unvoting him, you assure that it will take at least two people to make sure the lynch goes through, and so close to the deadline, it is much more likely that we will instead be forced to use one of our extensions, much better saved for further days.

So, it seems likely to me, that either you and tnkted are scumbuddies and you wanted to save him from the lynch, or that only you yourself are scum, making what looks like a bold town statement in order to assure that the extension is used on Day 1.

##Unvote
##Vote Palmar

Trying to save who you think is townie is not scum play as palmar proved in TL Mafia XLIV I will switch my vote to wiggles so we can get him lynched I still think ferryman made a very strong case against him. Cyber cheese needs to pick up his play.

##unvote
##vote Mr. Wiggles
Sevryn
Profile Joined September 2010
698 Posts
August 25 2011 18:53 GMT
#293
On August 26 2011 03:45 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 26 2011 03:31 Palmar wrote:
I wanted to save him from the lynch.

That doesn't mean I'm scum, there is a logical leap you're taking right there. Could it possibly be that I'm a townie and I wanted to get another townie's head off the chopping block?

You intentionally avoid that scenario. I already explained my reasoning for thinking tnkted cannot be scum, you choose to ignore that to paint me red. This is basically you grasping at straws, knowing that you're against a wall.

I'm fine with it, I like a race between myself and you much better than a race between tnkted and cyber. And hopefully enough of town is reading the thread properly to see what's truly going on here.
Your reasoning for why tnkted "cannot" be scum is that he posted "lololo". That's very weak evidence to call someone town such that they "cannot" be scum. The only other thing I see, is you saying "But look at how he's posting!", which isn't exactly revealing. This takes away any responsibility for a mislynch off your back, because you can point out that you thought he was town even if you vote him, while not doing much to actually defend tnkted from a lynch or convince others that he's town.

Add on to that, that you did react oddly to tnkted's initial pressure (which makes me feel better about him being town when you flip scum), and that you've just been piggy-backing off of the Ferryman's analysis of me being the EA, also known as not mafia, and I think we've found our first red this game.

Havn't we already established lynching the Eldritch Abomination is pro town? we get an extra day
Mr. Wiggles
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Canada5894 Posts
August 25 2011 19:32 GMT
#294
On August 26 2011 03:52 Sevryn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 26 2011 02:31 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
On August 25 2011 23:41 Palmar wrote:
On August 25 2011 23:36 Forumite wrote:
On August 25 2011 23:15 Palmar wrote:
On August 25 2011 23:07 Forumite wrote:
On August 25 2011 23:01 Palmar wrote:
I have a new strategy, I'll never vote for people I think are town. I'll actually force a no-lynch over it. I'm just not going to spam the thread away trying to convince people I'm right.
Right...


What's your reasoning to believe Wiggles is town?

I don´t trust the primary argument made against him. Meta is usefull, sometimes, but I don´t think it´s applicable in finding a new kind of 3rd party with an unknown optimal play, especially as the meta argument focused specifically on his first post, which wanted to start a discussion more than anything. Since then wiggles has sometimes overreacted in his defences, there might be something there, but some players has said that Wiggles is hard to read, and I´m prepared to trust that Meta more than what Ferryman brought up.


Then take a look at some of the things that have happened in the game.

Wiggles decided to vote Eiii in his opening post. There is nothing wrong with randomly voting, but the fact that he felt the need to specify it was a pressure vote (through linking an awesome song by bowie/queen), shows inherent signs of guilt, and not wanting to stick his neck out. I don't even understand what the purpose of voting someone with the intent of only pressuring would be. At he point in time he threw down that vote it'd have been more sensical to go after one of the players that have posted, or to simply claim the vote on Eiii was to get rid of lurkers.


Basically, that vote was because he was lurking, and because when he actually got around to posting, I wanted him to say something substantial and not just a one-liner before disappearing. The vote draws attention to him, and makes it harder to lurk unnoticed. As well, I was somewhat making fun of the random voting that was happening before my post, as people were all trying to pressure each other, and I was throwing my own in there as well.

Now, he's starting to post more again, and should hopefully pick up his activity and actually discuss things in the last 24 hours before the lynch.

I want to talk about this post, though:
On August 25 2011 23:01 Palmar wrote:
Actually screw it.

I have a new strategy, I'll never vote for people I think are town. I'll actually force a no-lynch over it. I'm just not going to spam the thread away trying to convince people I'm right.

##Unvote tnkted
##Vote Mr. Wiggles
Trying to force a no-lynch is pretty anti-town, as it gives mafia a free round of night kills without any extra information for town. (If mafia's smart, they're not going to hit town mislynch targets).

I'm also interested in this post, because it comes 45 minutes or so before the deadline for the lynch, when tnkted was at 6 votes. This means that he was in danger of having an additional person vote for him, assuring his lynch. By unvoting him, you assure that it will take at least two people to make sure the lynch goes through, and so close to the deadline, it is much more likely that we will instead be forced to use one of our extensions, much better saved for further days.

So, it seems likely to me, that either you and tnkted are scumbuddies and you wanted to save him from the lynch, or that only you yourself are scum, making what looks like a bold town statement in order to assure that the extension is used on Day 1.

##Unvote
##Vote Palmar

Trying to save who you think is townie is not scum play as palmar proved in TL Mafia XLIV I will switch my vote to wiggles so we can get him lynched I still think ferryman made a very strong case against him. Cyber cheese needs to pick up his play.

##unvote
##vote Mr. Wiggles
If you read, you can see that Palmar did not in fact try to save Tnkted, or at least, he did a very bad job of it. He did not adequately explain how Tnkted is town, and he did not push the idea that Tnkted was town in a convincing way. All he did, was remove the vote from Tnkted, ensuring that one of town's two extensions would be used on the worst possible day for it. He hasn't done anything to reinforce Tnkted's credibility, or to actually defend against the accusations of being scum, he just forced a no-lynch, which is anti-town by itself.
On August 26 2011 03:53 Sevryn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 26 2011 03:45 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
On August 26 2011 03:31 Palmar wrote:
I wanted to save him from the lynch.

That doesn't mean I'm scum, there is a logical leap you're taking right there. Could it possibly be that I'm a townie and I wanted to get another townie's head off the chopping block?

You intentionally avoid that scenario. I already explained my reasoning for thinking tnkted cannot be scum, you choose to ignore that to paint me red. This is basically you grasping at straws, knowing that you're against a wall.

I'm fine with it, I like a race between myself and you much better than a race between tnkted and cyber. And hopefully enough of town is reading the thread properly to see what's truly going on here.
Your reasoning for why tnkted "cannot" be scum is that he posted "lololo". That's very weak evidence to call someone town such that they "cannot" be scum. The only other thing I see, is you saying "But look at how he's posting!", which isn't exactly revealing. This takes away any responsibility for a mislynch off your back, because you can point out that you thought he was town even if you vote him, while not doing much to actually defend tnkted from a lynch or convince others that he's town.

Add on to that, that you did react oddly to tnkted's initial pressure (which makes me feel better about him being town when you flip scum), and that you've just been piggy-backing off of the Ferryman's analysis of me being the EA, also known as not mafia, and I think we've found our first red this game.

Havn't we already established lynching the Eldritch Abomination is pro town? we get an extra day
We do get an extra day, but it is an extra day much better used later into the game. Day 1 lynches are fairly inaccurate, unless scum makes a major mistake (Like I think Palmar did), and trying to kill the EA now just means that town will be launched into Day 1-2, where it will be exactly more of the same as what we've had for the last 48 hours. We get no new information, and no new leads, because Town will want to kill EA for the extra day, but scum will want to kill EA for the town cred, meaning that all scumhunting put into finding the EA is more or less a null tell. Trying to find the EA on day 1, means that he doesn't have to pretend to hunt for actual mafia, and makes it so that the extra lynch is used on the least optimal day, where town has the least leads and information.

I'm town, but it doesn't even matter if you believe me, because:

I'm town, so I want to kill scum
If I'm EA, I want to kill mafia to buy town cred
If I'm mafia, I want to kill EA on Day 1, as outlined above

So, do you think I'm EA? Then I'm hunting scum. I know I'm town, and I'm trying to convince you of such, but it shouldn't even matter when you read my analysis, because the end goal is going to be the same. Look at it impartially, and forget that it was written by Mr. Wiggles, whom you think is EA, and then tell me what you think.
you gotta dance
Hesmyrr
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Canada5776 Posts
August 25 2011 20:04 GMT
#295
A player has used PMs for game related discussion. Nothing important was said and the issue has been resolved. This is a no PM game. Any further incidents will result in a ban. You have been warned.
"If watching the MSL finals makes you a progamer, then anyone in Korea can do it." - Ha Tae Ki
JeeJee
Profile Blog Joined July 2003
Canada5652 Posts
August 25 2011 21:49 GMT
#296
On August 26 2011 02:10 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
Alright I hate to bring this up yet again, but I believe I've taken all the cons out of it in it's current implementation, and as such I fear it's been dismissed too soon

+ Show Spoiler [Breadcrumbing Revisited] +

The doc does not breadcrumb, straightforward.

The previous version was the rest of town feign visiting and psych tells the truth because the psych is our best lead on finding the horror
The forseen problem with that was that the EH would know who 'visited' them and if they didn't die, would know they were not worth a visit

So what if town agreed to which person the psych visits anonymously?
e.g. town agrees that psych should visit (I don't know, me?) and if the psych turns up dead we can assume hes (I'm in this case) the EH
I'm saying town should agree on who the psych should visit and no-one should breadcrumb themselves
essentially turning psych into a group role to avoid the being singled out as did/did not visit

psych dying could correlate to a) psych visited horror, b) horror visited psych or c) mafia attacked psych
if psyche is sane when he dies, we can rule out c, but c could happen the same night as a or b
if we don't know who the psych visits, we don't get any information on who EH might be, if we do, it's a 50/50
Bear in mind that if we can't prepare a strong argument for the person being the EH, we can still leave it at that and not lynch, and if we vote for the psych he can just not visit that night


Thoughts? Opinions?


on the caveat that you don't auto-lynch anyone if psych ends up suiciding, then it's workable to try and find out who is the EA. we could use the psych as an EA-cop. i'm in for this.

but you've been posting a lot about plans and not a lot about people, so what do you think about sevryn and palmar's unvote?
(\o/)  If you want it, you find a way. Otherwise you find excuses. No exceptions.
 /_\   aka Shinbi (requesting a name change since 27/05/09 ☺)
Jackal58
Profile Joined November 2010
United States4264 Posts
August 25 2011 23:00 GMT
#297
Cyber cheese is on the right track. Kind of. Psych visit Mr. Wiggles. If Psych dies we lynch Wiggles. Now let's continue hunting scum.
If tnkted is scum so is Palmar and Sevryn. Lynch tnkted.
Life can only kill you once.
TheFerryman
Profile Joined August 2011
United States39 Posts
August 25 2011 23:14 GMT
#298
*stands up, clears voice*

Ladies and Gentlemen, it seems like we have allowed ourselves to get distracted from what really matters, from lynching correctly, out of fear, fear of being wrong. I know my case against wiggles has failed to convince some of you. That was... to be expected. Which is why, when I designed my case, I built a trap around it, and ambush into which only a player who is not town aligned would fall. And I must say, Mr.Wiggles fell into the trap, with what could almost be called gusto.

So without further ado
[image loading]


Let me ask you gentelmen a question, what is it that mafia hate? They hate being in the spotlight, but most of all they hate being in the spotlight accused as mafia. In fact they'd much rather be considered third party than mafia (see Bumatlarge claiming SK in PTP mafia). The rationale behind it is simple, a third party is less of a threat to the town than the mafia, hence less likely to be killed. Especially if the mafia can quickly redirect focus. Knowing this I made my original accusations of wiggles without mentioning the possibility that he could be town. I clearly made him out to be the horror. Wiggles never called me out on this. A couple other players did, notable chaos13 and Jackal58, but Wiggles did not, he avoided bringing up the issue at all. All he had to do to discredit my argument was say "why does the ferryman not even consider the possibility that I am mafia? Does he know something I don't?" and I would have believed he was town. However, this dosen't happen. Why? Because wiggles is scum and the last thing he wants is to redirect the attention of an analyst to the possibility that he might be mafia. Remember he has more cred and can more easily wiggle out of the lynch as long as people are convinced he is the horror, rather than scum.

Allow me to quote one little tidbit
On August 26 2011 03:45 Mr. Wiggles wrote:

Add on to that, that you did react oddly to tnkted's initial pressure (which makes me feel better about him being town when you flip scum), and that you've just been piggy-backing off of the Ferryman's analysis of me being the EA, also known as not mafia, and I think we've found our first red this game.


Wiggles is aware that I haven't called him mafia, and he *brings attention to it* without using it to discredit my argument as to avoid a shift in focus Wiggles is not happy with being called out on being the EH, however to him its still better than being called scum.

There is exactly one post where he mentions any possibility that he could be mafia, and that's to "prove" that the mafia would hunt for the EH day 1, which obviously wiggles cannot be, since he isn't hunting the EH, just the soft target Eiii.

Wiggles is not only not reacting the way a townie would, he's milking my accusation to dodge the possibility of being called mafia and by extension, the lynch.



Wiggles. Scum?


Now, having this fact in mind, combined with the surprising number of people that defended wiggles from my accusation of being the EH, lets revisit the accusations I made, this time considering the possibility that wiggles could be mafia.

Lets take his first post, one more time.

On August 24 2011 02:51 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
##Vote: Eiii Where you at?
+ Show Spoiler +
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xtrEN-YKLBM

Killing Eldricht would be nice to get rid of the third party, but it's not the biggest priority for town on Day 1, because it takes him a while to achieve his win condition. (Like at least 7 nights if greens aren't killed/lynched, unrealistic, I know, but just an example) As well, we have the psychologist who can cure insanity.

So, to talk about the set-up a little, do people think it would be a good idea for the psychologist to claim his target at the end of night 1? It makes the psychologist claim early, but that way if he dies, then we have probably found the Eldricht Horror. The only way this wouldn't be the case, would be if mafia shot him, but then he could just claim earlier. (Because mafia don't really want to shoot him right away without reason, as he keeps them from losing the game to insanity as well)

There's both Pro's and Con's to this, and it depends on the relative threat that we perceive the Eldricht Horror as.

Pros:

-Lets us catch the Eldricht Horror more easily, knowing as soon as the Psychologist dies.
-Let's us coordinate the Psychologist a little (don't know if this is necessary)

Cons:

-Mafia know not to shoot the Psychologist, reducing the pool of townies (1 person so not that terrible)
-Mafia can screw with town by killing the Psychologist and trying for a mislynch on his target.

Personally, I don't really think it's worth it after actually writing out the Pros and Cons, but I don't think I'm going to delete this post because I spent like 5 minutes writing it, and it provides a good start for actual discussion. In my opinion, a better option is actually having the psychologist bread-crumb his visits, so that way, if he ever dies and flips, then we have a list of players cleared of being the Eldricht Horror, and we have a possible target for who the Third Party actually is.

Discuss!


Lets take a careful look at two major points that take place in this post.
1.) Wiggles posts an extremely pro-EH and pro-mafia plan that is going to allow scum to blend in
2.) Wiggles backtracks on his extremely anti-town plan. And proposes another plan that is also anti-town

Point by point now. How is the plan both EH and Mafia favored. Its clear how it helps the EH, and I discussed that in depth, but many people might miss how it helps the mafia. It keeps our attention occupied. Let us say we go through with this plan, and the psychologist claims, and then immediately dies. All of the next day would be spent arguing about lynching the psychologist's target and basically discussing the EH. Which is something that allows the mafia to blend in easily. This whole idea and point of discussion isn't furthering town goals, its giving scum something easy to discuss.

The backtracking, ah the backtracking, I believe I've already talked about that to death, however lets revisit the point once more, for those too lazy to go back and find what I said, backtracking is a method of dodging responsibility if any stupid townies follow the plan, as well as sabotaging the whole point of proposing a plan for discussion. It is also a trait scum wiggles often exhibits, as proven in my analysis of his third party play (there is a reason I chose Insane mafia 2 for my meta example, where the 3rd party was like a scum team, with no fear of getting shot, much like in this game)

The crumbs, or "how the mafia is going to find the doctor". This is a plan that seems innocuous at first, but then you realize the mafia will have an information advantage, in fact this means that if there is ever a successful save the medic is *dead*, given away by his breadcrumbs. If the medic lies then he's risking getting lynched if things don't add up later. This whole idea just makes our medic vulnerable and pushes attention onto the EH over mafia. Remember, the moment the psychologist dies the town is going to be in an uproar discussing his "crumbs", even if we have scum looking right at us, most of the town is going to ignore it.

Also worth mentioning is wiggles explicitly "pressure" vote, which after playing in PYP:I wiggles knows are worthless, since there is no chance of dying of a pressure vote, the victim doesn't feel pressured. Wiggles was there for the postgame, where Ace spelled this out. I doubt he's forgotten so fast, so the logical conclusion is that he is doing this to blend in.

So, lets summarize.
1.) Avoided mentioning the obvious gape in my argument out of fear
2.) Proposes an anti-town plan to "discuss", demonstrating back tracking
3.) Tries to blend in and "discusses" something that allows scum to do the same.
4.) Proposes and plants the idea of crumbing, which is also mafia favored.

That doesn't seem *that* compelling, right? Lets give him the benefit of the doubt and look at another post.



Before we do that though this jumped at me
On August 24 2011 09:26 Mr. Wiggles wrote:

Meta is normally a very weak argument to make against someone, and the fact that you use incorrect meta that doesn't take context into example doesn't sit well with me either. But, since you seem to love it so much, then you should be aware that if I'm called scum on Day 1, then I'm town, and if I'm not, then I'm mafia.


Wiggles *knows* better than this, he's played with foolishness and other players who excel at using meta to analyze players. The fact that he says this which he and I both know is wrong, shows to me that he cares more about defending himself than letting facts be set straight. The fact that he has the gall to bring up shallow meta about how he always gets called out day 1, rather than beating my arguments on their own merits shows desperation and more than a little bit of anger . This isn't the town wiggles who rebuts accusations with a level head. I smell fear.



I found a true gem here.

On August 26 2011 04:32 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 26 2011 03:52 Sevryn wrote:
On August 26 2011 02:31 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
On August 25 2011 23:41 Palmar wrote:
On August 25 2011 23:36 Forumite wrote:
On August 25 2011 23:15 Palmar wrote:
On August 25 2011 23:07 Forumite wrote:
On August 25 2011 23:01 Palmar wrote:
I have a new strategy, I'll never vote for people I think are town. I'll actually force a no-lynch over it. I'm just not going to spam the thread away trying to convince people I'm right.
Right...


What's your reasoning to believe Wiggles is town?

I don´t trust the primary argument made against him. Meta is usefull, sometimes, but I don´t think it´s applicable in finding a new kind of 3rd party with an unknown optimal play, especially as the meta argument focused specifically on his first post, which wanted to start a discussion more than anything. Since then wiggles has sometimes overreacted in his defences, there might be something there, but some players has said that Wiggles is hard to read, and I´m prepared to trust that Meta more than what Ferryman brought up.


Then take a look at some of the things that have happened in the game.

Wiggles decided to vote Eiii in his opening post. There is nothing wrong with randomly voting, but the fact that he felt the need to specify it was a pressure vote (through linking an awesome song by bowie/queen), shows inherent signs of guilt, and not wanting to stick his neck out. I don't even understand what the purpose of voting someone with the intent of only pressuring would be. At he point in time he threw down that vote it'd have been more sensical to go after one of the players that have posted, or to simply claim the vote on Eiii was to get rid of lurkers.


Basically, that vote was because he was lurking, and because when he actually got around to posting, I wanted him to say something substantial and not just a one-liner before disappearing. The vote draws attention to him, and makes it harder to lurk unnoticed. As well, I was somewhat making fun of the random voting that was happening before my post, as people were all trying to pressure each other, and I was throwing my own in there as well.

Now, he's starting to post more again, and should hopefully pick up his activity and actually discuss things in the last 24 hours before the lynch.

I want to talk about this post, though:
On August 25 2011 23:01 Palmar wrote:
Actually screw it.

I have a new strategy, I'll never vote for people I think are town. I'll actually force a no-lynch over it. I'm just not going to spam the thread away trying to convince people I'm right.

##Unvote tnkted
##Vote Mr. Wiggles
Trying to force a no-lynch is pretty anti-town, as it gives mafia a free round of night kills without any extra information for town. (If mafia's smart, they're not going to hit town mislynch targets).

I'm also interested in this post, because it comes 45 minutes or so before the deadline for the lynch, when tnkted was at 6 votes. This means that he was in danger of having an additional person vote for him, assuring his lynch. By unvoting him, you assure that it will take at least two people to make sure the lynch goes through, and so close to the deadline, it is much more likely that we will instead be forced to use one of our extensions, much better saved for further days.

So, it seems likely to me, that either you and tnkted are scumbuddies and you wanted to save him from the lynch, or that only you yourself are scum, making what looks like a bold town statement in order to assure that the extension is used on Day 1.

##Unvote
##Vote Palmar

Trying to save who you think is townie is not scum play as palmar proved in TL Mafia XLIV I will switch my vote to wiggles so we can get him lynched I still think ferryman made a very strong case against him. Cyber cheese needs to pick up his play.

##unvote
##vote Mr. Wiggles
If you read, you can see that Palmar did not in fact try to save Tnkted, or at least, he did a very bad job of it. He did not adequately explain how Tnkted is town, and he did not push the idea that Tnkted was town in a convincing way. All he did, was remove the vote from Tnkted, ensuring that one of town's two extensions would be used on the worst possible day for it. He hasn't done anything to reinforce Tnkted's credibility, or to actually defend against the accusations of being scum, he just forced a no-lynch, which is anti-town by itself.
Show nested quote +
On August 26 2011 03:53 Sevryn wrote:
On August 26 2011 03:45 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
On August 26 2011 03:31 Palmar wrote:
I wanted to save him from the lynch.

That doesn't mean I'm scum, there is a logical leap you're taking right there. Could it possibly be that I'm a townie and I wanted to get another townie's head off the chopping block?

You intentionally avoid that scenario. I already explained my reasoning for thinking tnkted cannot be scum, you choose to ignore that to paint me red. This is basically you grasping at straws, knowing that you're against a wall.

I'm fine with it, I like a race between myself and you much better than a race between tnkted and cyber. And hopefully enough of town is reading the thread properly to see what's truly going on here.
Your reasoning for why tnkted "cannot" be scum is that he posted "lololo". That's very weak evidence to call someone town such that they "cannot" be scum. The only other thing I see, is you saying "But look at how he's posting!", which isn't exactly revealing. This takes away any responsibility for a mislynch off your back, because you can point out that you thought he was town even if you vote him, while not doing much to actually defend tnkted from a lynch or convince others that he's town.

Add on to that, that you did react oddly to tnkted's initial pressure (which makes me feel better about him being town when you flip scum), and that you've just been piggy-backing off of the Ferryman's analysis of me being the EA, also known as not mafia, and I think we've found our first red this game.

Havn't we already established lynching the Eldritch Abomination is pro town? we get an extra day
We do get an extra day, but it is an extra day much better used later into the game. Day 1 lynches are fairly inaccurate, unless scum makes a major mistake (Like I think Palmar did), and trying to kill the EA now just means that town will be launched into Day 1-2, where it will be exactly more of the same as what we've had for the last 48 hours. We get no new information, and no new leads, because Town will want to kill EA for the extra day, but scum will want to kill EA for the town cred, meaning that all scumhunting put into finding the EA is more or less a null tell. Trying to find the EA on day 1, means that he doesn't have to pretend to hunt for actual mafia, and makes it so that the extra lynch is used on the least optimal day, where town has the least leads and information.

I'm town, but it doesn't even matter if you believe me, because:

I'm town, so I want to kill scum
If I'm EA, I want to kill mafia to buy town cred
If I'm mafia, I want to kill EA on Day 1, as outlined above

So, do you think I'm EA? Then I'm hunting scum. I know I'm town, and I'm trying to convince you of such, but it shouldn't even matter when you read my analysis, because the end goal is going to be the same. Look at it impartially, and forget that it was written by Mr. Wiggles, whom you think is EA, and then tell me what you think.


What does this post boil down to? Ferryman called me the EH, therefore behave as if I were such. Remember the point about milking my accusation? This is exactly what this post does, it takes it and uses the accusation I made to plant a false idea that lynching wiggles is not the optimal play, and that "wiggles cannot be scum". This is manipulation at its finest gentlemen, this is wiggles taking all possible outcomes and twisting them so that the only possible verdict keeps him from being lynched. Notice how he also uses this post to discredit anyone who accuses him of being the EH since "only mafia want to hunt the EH day 1". This post successfully exhibits *exactly* what scum is going to do when accused of being 3rd party.

Also, wiggle's accusation of Palmar is weak as hell. Wiggles and I both know there is no way Palmar stuck his neck out like that to save tnkted, unless palmar is town. Palmar usually has no issue busing his teammates, you really think he would force a no-lynch and become a focus of accusations if he were scum? Once again wiggles is trying to distract us from himself by "scumhunting" with one of the weakest cases I have ever seen.



Wiggles also shows a strange fascination with lurkers not present in his usual play. For example in XLII wiggles consistently voted and focused on lurkers, stuff like, while pushing around suspicion with questions. Note that wiggles was the GF that game.

+ Show Spoiler +
On June 17 2011 10:50 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Well, I'm back now, before the flip too.

ILJ seems to have come back in full force, and I'm going to be taking my vote off of him. His recent posting makes me believe that he's likely to be green.

There's also been a new candidate, who's name has been raised as a potential lynch target, Hiro. However, I'm not sure that he's mafia either, based off the "slips" people are saying he's made. I don't think that he's scum, more so than pushing for policy lynching inactives, in a very badly worded way. GG still hasn't shown up, or made any contributory posts. That said, keeping people like him around, who will be impossible to read, isn't going to help us in this game.

So, instead of voting for two people I find likely to be green, I'm going to switch my vote to GG, who I see as more a 50-50 chance of being red, and who is impossible to read otherwise.

##Unvote: ilovejonn
##Vote: GrassGiraffe

On June 18 2011 13:35 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
I'd be interested in hearing from DeMorcerf too. He was actually brought up as a potential lynch candidate on Day 1, along with GG, and Lazorbear, but after making a couple posts, all scrutiny was removed, and people seemed to forget about him, more or less. This seems a bit odd for me, considering people were going to lynch him for lurking, that he was forgotten after two posts, while still continuing to lurk. Like I said, I'm interested in hearing more from you.


On June 16 2011 13:20 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
For reference, people who haven't posted/contributed since Day 1 post:

Impervious
Node
hiro protagonist
GGQ
grassgiraffe (Likely Modkill, no posts)
mig
LandenC (1 post in game)
Jacinto (1 post in game)
Lazorbear (1 post in game)
RebirthofLegend

This list actually makes me a little sad, because more than half of these people have played before, or are veterans, but we still have terrible activity.



Does that ring any bells? Has wiggles been pushing and pressuring lurkers as a means to try to bring the focus off of himself? (hint the answer is yes)

I could make this post a lot longer but most of what I said about wiggle's third party meta applies to his scum meta, in fact go back and read this post, replacing the words "third party" with "scum" and you'll get a pretty exact idea of what his meta is.


TL:DR


In summary wiggles is scum because he
1.) Avoided mentioning the obvious gape in my argument out of fear
2.) Proposes an anti-town plan to "discuss", demonstrating back tracking
3.) Tries to blend in and "discusses" something that allows scum to do the same.
4.) Proposes and plants the idea of crumbing, which is also mafia favored.
5.) Proceeds to milk my argument in an attempt to make sure he isn't lynched
6.) Goes after the "easy" target that are lurkers.
7.) Attacks Palmar, for doing something no sane scum would ever do.

Wiggles is anything but town. He might be the EH he might be mafia, he isn't a townie, that's for damn sure

So, to all those who concluded "lets ignore wiggles, he is obviously the EH", now would be a good time to move your vote over to him, because wiggles is anything *but* town at this point. My only doubt is that he might really be the EH rather than mafia, but either way, he certainly isn't town

+ Show Spoiler [ Mr.Wiggles] +
[image loading]


TheFerryman

PS. I'll probably be gone for the next 24 hours, lynch wiggles for me.
"Don't pay the ferryman, until he gets you to the other side"
JeeJee
Profile Blog Joined July 2003
Canada5652 Posts
August 25 2011 23:16 GMT
#299
On August 26 2011 08:00 Jackal58 wrote:
Cyber cheese is on the right track. Kind of. Psych visit Mr. Wiggles. If Psych dies we lynch Wiggles. Now let's continue hunting scum.
If tnkted is scum so is Palmar and Sevryn. Lynch tnkted.


how is sevryn remotely related to tnkted?
(\o/)  If you want it, you find a way. Otherwise you find excuses. No exceptions.
 /_\   aka Shinbi (requesting a name change since 27/05/09 ☺)
TheFerryman
Profile Joined August 2011
United States39 Posts
August 25 2011 23:22 GMT
#300
EBWOP:
On August 26 2011 08:14 TheFerryman wrote:
Especially if the mafia can quickly redirect focus. Knowing this I made my original accusations of wiggles without mentioning the possibility that he could be scum.
"Don't pay the ferryman, until he gets you to the other side"
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