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My opinions on the players 1. pHelix Equilibria + Show Spoiler +On April 24 2011 01:50 pHelix Equilibria wrote: I see the deadline on the rules, but what is the rules regarding votes? Can the town change votes? Before the day is over. With a clear majority coming at me ? Eeek I am scared. Tries to establish himself as a scared townie, imo. Ambiguous statement regardless, either a scum move or an honest town statement. On April 24 2011 02:15 pHelix Equilibria wrote: Thank you sir. I got to say that picture of our town is pretty. That white sedan is mine on the left. My condolences to Qatol's son, really. It is sad to see drug addiction go untreated.
##Vote aScle
I want to hear his voice! Attempts to pressure, no content in his posts. On April 24 2011 06:42 pHelix Equilibria wrote: After reading the above posts. I believe the silent ones are the ones to really look out for. I understand the time zone differences. But I would say out of the silent ones. The one that pointed fingers relatively early with no supporting evidence is more suspicious. Phoenix is right, aScle said one thing so far, but then again he looks like he's in a different time zone, so when he does say more than one thing, we'll see.
##Unvote ##Vote Jaminz Regurgitates ideas that have been said by a few other people in the thread. Either a reclusive townie or a dodging scum. No opinion yet since there are such a few amount of posts.
2. Rising_Phoenix
+ Show Spoiler +On April 24 2011 05:27 Rising_Phoenix wrote:Show nested quote +On April 24 2011 05:16 freestalker wrote: the cop doesn't have to role claim to find enough evidence and push the conviction on others. Roleclaiming is probably a good option only once there are like 1-2 mafia left and he knows who they are, or if mafia is claiming they are a cop and the real cop knows one other mafia member (netting 2 mafia for 1 cop), etc. If medic manages to figure out who cop is before he roleclaims, he should be the only target to heal. I was just looking at it mathmatically. I know cop would have to roleclaim for the probability thing to work, but it was more of a probability discussion than a strategy discussion. If cop hints too strongly he's a cop than he's going to get whacked probably since he has the ability to really push people to make a vote. Soft defense of his post with statistics. Though it was baited by some other player, still trying to gloss over the fact that he has almost nothing to contribute. Try to do some analysis! It won't hurt. No opinion yet.
3. HardCorey
+ Show Spoiler +Hardcore lurker. Dodges attempts at discussion because "he doesn't know what to discuss." On April 23 2011 23:44 HardCorey wrote: So what would you say is your justification for voting on pHelix Equilibria? You know you're right though, not having posted seems like a good enough reason to kill them. On April 23 2011 23:48 HardCorey wrote: Although are we wasting our first kill by using it on a member that hasn't posted? I think someone who is the mafia would probably become more involved earlier. On April 24 2011 00:05 HardCorey wrote: fair enough. group mentality here I go.
##Vote: pHelix Equilibria Those were his last three posts. First off, he contradicts himself in his first post. "Not enough posting seems like a good enough reason to kill them," yet we have the perfect example of someone who is barely contributing to town. Second quote displays his uncertainty. Maybe his scum buddies are not active, so he didn't think about his first post as he was typing it. Third post has HardCorey blatantly stating that he is sheeping pHelix. Then he disappears. Strong scum read on HardCorey atm.
4. FezTheCaliph
+ Show Spoiler +I don't feel like quoting his posts since over half of them are just vote tallys. Might be a scum move by trying to contribute without actually contributing. You too, try some analysis.
5. Sirael
+ Show Spoiler +On April 23 2011 02:50 Sirael wrote:Show nested quote +On April 23 2011 00:51 Conversion wrote:Anyways, a list of people who haven't posted yet. 1. pHelix Equilibria 3. HardCorey 5. Sirael We want to hear from you, guys! ![](/mirror/smilies/smile.gif) Then i'll make the start. Was outside the whole day chilling in the sun (still 25°C at 8 pm). As this is my very first game, i hope i don't make too many mistakes. Anyway GLHF to you all and let's hope for an interesting game. First post. Goes inactive for a loooooong time after that. On April 24 2011 18:03 Sirael wrote:So, my internet was dead as i wope up yesterday. Couldn't log in for the whole day. I already thought that i'd be modkilled by now ![](/mirror/smilies/frown.gif) I'll try to give some of my opinions. At the moment, ignoring the actual vote counter, it seems like there are two vote candidates pushed by jasminz. First there's the inactive aka aScle. While lynching an inactive (for whatever reason he is) isn't the worst thing to do, it is by no means the best either. It essentially gives the mafia one free kill in night1. Therefore it should be our number one goal to just get everyone posted as much as possible, simply ignoring the inactive. In case of need we can still jump on him if we don't find a better alternative. Jaminz' second suggestion is basically the same only that Enervate postet a reason why he can't post. When I look at jaminz himself i get a bit confused. He gets in the game saying that he want's to improve his analysis(which he obviously did) and at the beginning of the game he seems quite depressed that there's not much posting going on. + Show Spoiler +On April 23 2011 15:49 jaminz wrote: Should we just start accusing someone of being mafia to get people talking? I don't really know where to start the conversation. On April 23 2011 13:56 jaminz wrote: I don't think he meant we shouldn't discuss, I just think he meant that there's nothing really to talk about yet lol The first time I read those two posts I didn't really notice them but the more I think about it the more it seems like he doesn't want us to post that much. But maybe that's just me... He continues with doing what he joines the game for, analysing. So I guess he's quite safe for now, but you'll never know. I really don't know who I should vote for at the moment, maybe someone can give me a good idea? First paragraph basically explains why he was inactive. Fair enough, as we have a lot more inactives in this game. Very wishy-washy with his opinions. Indecisiveness is something a newbie scum player might display because of their inability to deceive town. Tries to pass off his opinion on jaminz as "confusion." This can be a future set up for his posts. Basically a big wall of nothing. No analysis, hardly any opinion, and a lot of wishy-washiness. On April 25 2011 06:26 Sirael wrote:Show nested quote +On April 25 2011 05:48 Conversion wrote: I'm sticking with my vote on HardCorey since he's lurking hard atm, even with me pressuring him. I thought about him as a possible vote earlier today but I wanted to wait for his reaction. Because he's not reacting to your pressure at all, i'll simply add more. ##Vote HardCorey Sheep. This brings me to a slight scum read on Sirael. Do some analysis or contribute more, please.
6. Freestalker
+ Show Spoiler +Very strong town read on freestalker. I don't feel like quoting every single post he made, but he prods around and is generally promoting a good town environment.
7. Enervate
+ Show Spoiler +On April 25 2011 02:13 Enervate wrote: If I was mafia, wouldn't I be trying to defend myself more and vote for other people? In my opinion, mafia members have more motive to participate actively and try to vote people who aren't mafia members. I mean, mafia members must have realized by now that not writing huge long posts makes you look suspicious.
##Vote jaminz Mafia members would know I'm not a mafia member and try to vote me. Seems like 3 people have voted me so far. Hmmmmm.
Incredibly weak and scummy defense after prodding him for inactivity. Basically putting out possibilities that people voting for him might be mafia, just because. No logic, nothing. On April 25 2011 05:14 Enervate wrote: When I said I was about to edit my post, I didn't mean I was trying to change what I had wrote, I meant I wanted to add the second sentence I posted next, because not double-posting is a habit I've had from posting outside of this thread.
But here's my analysis:
I am pretty sure Fez the Caliph is not mafia because he unvoted me. If he was mafia, he would have left his vote on me because it wouldn't look suspicious since other people are still voting for me. If we were both mafia, he wouldn't have voted for me in the first place. So, 3 out of 9 people (myself and Fez excluded), could possibly be mafia.
aScle is suspicious to me because he goes from not posting much to jumping on the vote on me. I'm a convenient scapegoat.
Jamin'z reply to my vote against him is interesting. If he was an innocent townie, he might accuse me of being mafia for voting him. But instead he tells me how I can get his vote off of me. Maybe because he knows I'm not mafia. And the only way he could know is if he was mafia.
Rising Phoenix's post is also suspicious to me because he says he takes time to make thoughtful posts but also says he's too lazy to count the votes.
And here's some good faith, I'll try and tally the votes.
Phelix Equlibria - 1 Enervate -4 ascle -1 jaminz -2 hardcorey-1
(This actually took me a really long time lol. It's kinda hard with all of the unvotes. I think it's accurate, though.) Trying to contribute without actually contributing. They wasn't an ounce of analysis in his posts, just some opinions here and there. Add to the fact that he's vote tallying like everyone else is, trying to seem like he's contributing. On April 25 2011 07:18 Enervate wrote: Ok I guess I will follow the trend of voting for inactives as well.
##Unvote
##Vote HardCorey Sheeping, plain and simple. Try to explain your reasoning. Is it a pressure vote? Did you like the case against that certain person? Sheeping is generally frowned upon here and is considered anti-town(not necessarily scummy) behavior.
8. Conversion
+ Show Spoiler +Case against myself..? =p
9. Jaminz
+ Show Spoiler +Another player I have a strong town read on. Just look at the first major post in this thread.
10. vyro
+ Show Spoiler +Really inactive. Dodgy when he isn't.
11. aScle
+ Show Spoiler +Also another inactive. Pops up here and there and tries to blend in with town, imo. On April 24 2011 22:34 aScle wrote:Show nested quote +On April 24 2011 22:18 pHelix Equilibria wrote: After reading quite abit of these analyses. Its hard to make judgement calls when people are making these analysis out of 2 or 3 posts that are like 3 sentences long. If there isn't enough to information to draw conclusions from, the best bet would be the inactive. They had a days to say something. At the least we can keep the people interested in the game to stay and therefore more posts to look at. Thats my two cents. And who exactly are these inactives you speak of? Pretty much everyone so far currently has made a post/posts indicating that they are in fact active. Might be a move trying to soft defend inactives. No read yet.
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Finished a lot of my work to do this =)
I still think HardCorey is the best lynch here.
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Well, I gotta go sleep again.. I got stuff to think about and voting ends before I wake up. HardCorey is still inactive so we can get that one out so that cop doesn't have to focus on inactive person. I hope you all try to contribute with your analysing as much as possible in the due time.
I'm gonna switch my vote to HardCorey, the lower amount of inactives the better. If he turns up and provides some reasonable info, change votes to someone else reasonably. Try to work on your own, too. Don't get over-influenced by single individuals. Try to be objective. If needed, read some guides to get some better information.
Anyway.
##Unvote
##Vote HardCorey
If I'm correct this is now in "favor" of HardCorey.
It is possible it will be a townie, though. Everyone should count with that if you've seen some guides or other games. If we're lucky it'll be mafia.
Also I've been thinking about posts of Conversion.
In my state of utter paranoia I imagined he could be mafia. With his previous experience (and reading of few guides) he can give a general help for the game (that he does). The positive thing is he is trying to enforce discussion, and asks questions. However, as jaminz also pointed out he does not answer them on his own (no suspicion from him, except for inactives). He also suggests for detectives to target inactive people. If he was mafia and knew all his friends are active, it would be a very good wasting of the cop ability. The better solution would be to enforce inactives to talk to reduce their number to like 1, lynch that one, and then detective can target non inactives for more reasonable results, since he can read their posts and see some hints. And the last thing about Conversion is the fact that now few hours before end of voting he says he can't really contribute and will do analysis when he can. I wonder if it will be before end of day. ![](/mirror/smilies/wink.gif)
Anyway. I am pretty sure if Conversion is innocent he will prove it. There are good signs, but there are signs for a possible doubt, in my opinion.
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Alright, good enough analysis. Disregard my theorycrafting for now, but I think you will also agree what I wrote makes sense.
The problem is (as you and probably someone else noticed) there are too many inactive/suspicious looking people. If we counted all suspicious ones as mafia, we'd be left with like... 5 mafia. And that's not correct. However, I think after this day and next night, day 2 will be more successful, giving us more connections and supporting information.
I guess people just have to die to win this >_< Even if it means some innocents will die in the process.
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Yeah, that's why I'm hoping people will step up, do some analysis.
Ideal town environment so mafia has to get involved. Most likely newbie mafias won't want/know what to do, so.
Hopefully Corey will get lynched today. And it's okay to mislynch day 1. Most day 1s don't end up with a mafia lynch anyways.
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I'll throw a vote for HardCorey . ##Vote HardCorey
I hope he gets active and defends himself. I don't like the idea of voting inactives out just because I doubt that inactives are mafia.
As for analysis, I guess now's a good a time as any.
1. pHelix Equilibria + Show Spoiler + Seems to me to be a bit eccentric but I get a town vibe out of him. He's not the most tactful which leads me to believe he is town. If he were mafia he'd either shut up or be told to shut up by the other mafia.
2. Rising_Phoenix + Show Spoiler + He was a bit defensive when very light accusation was thrown at him, but that feels more natural to me than suspicious. He does seem to be a bit accusatory, which makes me want to keep an eye on him. At this point though, I think its more him being active then necessarially mafia, but I'll definitely keep an eye on him.
3. HardCorey + Show Spoiler +Most inactive. Hasn't really said anything worth mentioning, just a random vote for the person everyone was voting for. Most likely not mafia but as he's been so inactive, he wont be missed.
4. FezTheCaliph + Show Spoiler + A tactical genius. Voice of a generation. Sexy brown studmuffin. All around appealing guy 5. Sirael + Show Spoiler +Not much about him. Some posts with some content but nothing substantial. Just his opinions on the more controversial people. Only thing to be wary about is that he was the first to jump on the HardCorey bandwagon, granted I can't say much as I did too.
6. Freestalker + Show Spoiler +Easily the most active poster. Is doing a great job keeping up with everything and doing analysis and directing conversation. The only thing that worries me about him is that he could be overcompensating, being the super active townie as a front. I don't think that is very likely. But thats about the only negative I could think of.
7. Enervate + Show Spoiler +Seems pretty defensive. Granted he had everyone voting against him. Was quick to try and point the finger elsewhere and jump on someone else. It seems more of a reflex. I kinda feel he got scared and that didn't help his case any. Seems like a natural reaction but could have more sinister undertones. Another person to keep an eye on.
8. Conversion + Show Spoiler +Is pretty active. Not exactly his biggest fan because he called me out on not posting much aside from tallies. I'll be honest, aside from theory crafting I kinda stayed out a bit. I wanted to see more peoples opinions before I went out pointing fingers. And it seemed like a lot of work, and I am fairly lazy. So I'm going into analysis now ^_^ Anyway Conversion seems alright. And its his birthday! So yea I'll leave him be.... for now =p
9. Jaminz + Show Spoiler +Went from inactive to having some good insights. Seems alright, and I get a big town vibe off of him.
10. vyro + Show Spoiler +Idk about him. He was active for a bit and then kinda disappeared. Could be sinister, could just be real life.
11. aScle + Show Spoiler +Just recently showed up and posted a bit. Seems a bit late to the party and that troubles me a bit. Seems like he's trying to save face by showing up at the last minute .
These are just my views on individual players at the moment. I kinda feel that people were less active cuz it was the weekend, and I'm hoping things will pick up.
so yea, tl;dr voting HardCorey, worried about phelix, phoenix, enervate, vyro, and aScle.
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So it seems we have two major candidates to lynch: Enervate and HardCorey.
It seems the reason people are voting for HardCorey is because he’s inactive, which I completely understand and even support to an extent.
I’m having a hard time with this vote, but I think I’m going to stick with my current vote and go with lynching Enervate.
I’m getting more of a scum feel from him than from anyone else this game. We’ve seen him make some posts, and honestly it seems like in most of them he’s just trying to deflect attention away from himself.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 25 2011 02:13 Enervate wrote: If I was mafia, wouldn't I be trying to defend myself more and vote for other people? In my opinion, mafia members have more motive to participate actively and try to vote people who aren't mafia members. I mean, mafia members must have realized by now that not writing huge long posts makes you look suspicious.
##Vote jaminz Mafia members would know I'm not a mafia member and try to vote me. Seems like 3 people have voted me so far. Hmmmmm.
When I voted for him, he made a post about it, and without any real thought or analysis he immediately voted for me. It’s understandable to be a bit defensive, but I think that the best way to get people to stop voting for you is to prove your worth to the town. This means doing analysis on other players, which not only points out suspicious actions of others, but builds credibility with the town.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 25 2011 05:14 Enervate wrote: When I said I was about to edit my post, I didn't mean I was trying to change what I had wrote, I meant I wanted to add the second sentence I posted next, because not double-posting is a habit I've had from posting outside of this thread.
But here's my analysis:
I am pretty sure Fez the Caliph is not mafia because he unvoted me. If he was mafia, he would have left his vote on me because it wouldn't look suspicious since other people are still voting for me. If we were both mafia, he wouldn't have voted for me in the first place. So, 3 out of 9 people (myself and Fez excluded), could possibly be mafia.
aScle is suspicious to me because he goes from not posting much to jumping on the vote on me. I'm a convenient scapegoat.
Jamin'z reply to my vote against him is interesting. If he was an innocent townie, he might accuse me of being mafia for voting him. But instead he tells me how I can get his vote off of me. Maybe because he knows I'm not mafia. And the only way he could know is if he was mafia.
Rising Phoenix's post is also suspicious to me because he says he takes time to make thoughtful posts but also says he's too lazy to count the votes.
And here's some good faith, I'll try and tally the votes.
Phelix Equlibria - 1 Enervate -4 ascle -1 jaminz -2 hardcorey-1
(This actually took me a really long time lol. It's kinda hard with all of the unvotes. I think it's accurate, though.)
Here he does a bit of analysis, but when I read it I fet like even his analysis was just done to deflect blame from himself. He backs up every comment he makes by saying that the reason he believes someone is or isn’t mafia is because they either did, or did not vote for him. That doesn’t make a ton of sense to me, as no one else knows if you’re mafia or not, so it’s pretty much just circular logic.
All that being said, I’m still having trouble deciding whether or not Enervate is mafia or just a new/inexperienced/bad town player. I’m leaning towards the former, but I’m still on the fence.
On inactives:
Like others and I have said, inactivity is a problem. However, I think there is always a chance that some players are still just having difficulty getting into the game. This was a tough weekend for many, being Easter, and so I think it’s understandable to give everyone a free pass for at least the first lynch.
Overall, I think that either vote (HardCorey or Enervate) makes sense, but I think that the vote for Enervate is based more on his posts/what he has said, while the vote on HardCorey seems to mostly just be a vote against inactivity. I don’t see a ton that separates HardCorey from other inactive players, and so I think it makes sense to give everyone another day or so to get up to speed.
A final note (I’ve mentioned it before, but I think it’s still important):
Be wary of people quickly bandwagoning/jumping onto one target to lynch. Mafia only have one KP per night, so in order to try to gain an advantage more quickly, I’d expect them to try to get us to lynch people who they know for sure aren’t mafia. Thus, if you see 2 or 3 people quickly jump on a lynch candidate, I’d be suspicious. This has happened both with HardCorey and with Enervate, so it doesn’t tell us too much, but just be aware of it/on the lookout.
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The problem I have against lynching Enervate is that he actually bothered to reply. Also, there are too few posts made by him that actually leads me to a strong scum read.
Corey, on the other hand, is either lurking or not caring about the game. Both are detrimental to town, mafia or not. Since Enervate actually replied, albeit scummy replies, I have a feeling we will get a stronger read on him later on in the game.
That being said, I encourage EVERYONE to post something useful to town. We can't have mafia blending in the background and 2-3 really active townies (jaminz/me/free). Mafia will just pick us off and town's inactivity will lead them to defeat.
Let's start setting up an ideal town environment now so it doesn't screw us over later on. Don't let inactivity beat us.
Does the night end at 1 AM EST? (Roughly 14:00 KST)
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+ Show Spoiler +So it seems we have two major candidates to lynch: Enervate and HardCorey. It seems the reason people are voting for HardCorey is because he’s inactive, which I completely understand and even support to an extent. I’m having a hard time with this vote, but I think I’m going to stick with my current vote and go with lynching Enervate. I’m getting more of a scum feel from him than from anyone else this game. We’ve seen him make some posts, and honestly it seems like in most of them he’s just trying to deflect attention away from himself. + Show Spoiler +On April 25 2011 02:13 Enervate wrote: If I was mafia, wouldn't I be trying to defend myself more and vote for other people? In my opinion, mafia members have more motive to participate actively and try to vote people who aren't mafia members. I mean, mafia members must have realized by now that not writing huge long posts makes you look suspicious.
##Vote jaminz Mafia members would know I'm not a mafia member and try to vote me. Seems like 3 people have voted me so far. Hmmmmm.
When I voted for him, he made a post about it, and without any real thought or analysis he immediately voted for me. It’s understandable to be a bit defensive, but I think that the best way to get people to stop voting for you is to prove your worth to the town. This means doing analysis on other players, which not only points out suspicious actions of others, but builds credibility with the town. + Show Spoiler +On April 25 2011 05:14 Enervate wrote: When I said I was about to edit my post, I didn't mean I was trying to change what I had wrote, I meant I wanted to add the second sentence I posted next, because not double-posting is a habit I've had from posting outside of this thread.
But here's my analysis:
I am pretty sure Fez the Caliph is not mafia because he unvoted me. If he was mafia, he would have left his vote on me because it wouldn't look suspicious since other people are still voting for me. If we were both mafia, he wouldn't have voted for me in the first place. So, 3 out of 9 people (myself and Fez excluded), could possibly be mafia.
aScle is suspicious to me because he goes from not posting much to jumping on the vote on me. I'm a convenient scapegoat.
Jamin'z reply to my vote against him is interesting. If he was an innocent townie, he might accuse me of being mafia for voting him. But instead he tells me how I can get his vote off of me. Maybe because he knows I'm not mafia. And the only way he could know is if he was mafia.
Rising Phoenix's post is also suspicious to me because he says he takes time to make thoughtful posts but also says he's too lazy to count the votes.
And here's some good faith, I'll try and tally the votes.
Phelix Equlibria - 1 Enervate -4 ascle -1 jaminz -2 hardcorey-1
(This actually took me a really long time lol. It's kinda hard with all of the unvotes. I think it's accurate, though.) Here he does a bit of analysis, but when I read it I fet like even his analysis was just done to deflect blame from himself. He backs up every comment he makes by saying that the reason he believes someone is or isn’t mafia is because they either did, or did not vote for him. That doesn’t make a ton of sense to me, as no one else knows if you’re mafia or not, so it’s pretty much just circular logic. All that being said, I’m still having trouble deciding whether or not Enervate is mafia or just a new/inexperienced/bad town player. I’m leaning towards the former, but I’m still on the fence. On inactives: Like others and I have said, inactivity is a problem. However, I think there is always a chance that some players are still just having difficulty getting into the game. This was a tough weekend for many, being Easter, and so I think it’s understandable to give everyone a free pass for at least the first lynch. Overall, I think that either vote (HardCorey or Enervate) makes sense, but I think that the vote for Enervate is based more on his posts/what he has said, while the vote on HardCorey seems to mostly just be a vote against inactivity. I don’t see a ton that separates HardCorey from other inactive players, and so I think it makes sense to give everyone another day or so to get up to speed. A final note (I’ve mentioned it before, but I think it’s still important): Be wary of people quickly bandwagoning/jumping onto one target to lynch. Mafia only have one KP per night, so in order to try to gain an advantage more quickly, I’d expect them to try to get us to lynch people who they know for sure aren’t mafia. Thus, if you see 2 or 3 people quickly jump on a lynch candidate, I’d be suspicious. This has happened both with HardCorey and with Enervate, so it doesn’t tell us too much, but just be aware of it/on the lookout.
This was an accidental repost of my earlier post.
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i think conversion's opinions would be more valid with a more experienced or active group. but most of his scum reads (which he has on most of the town) don't really seem to account for how new some of us are at this.
so are we all voting on hardcorey now? what happens when he comes back and defends himself, what about when any inactive comes back? hopefully, we'll have more information after the first night
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From the Doc H's first post:
Time Cycle: This game will follow a 24 hour night/48 hour day cycle. In case I am not able to post around deadline, any votes after the 48 hour mark will not count and the game will be put on halt until the night post is up. Currently the deadline is 11 PM EST, but that is subject to change.
I think that means the day will end in about 23 minutes.
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23 minutes.. wow.
and you're right vyro, I probably got a little carried away in my analysis. But this is how the game should be played. We're all relatively new; just because inactives don't put in the effort to try and be better at the game does not mean people who are trying (ie, me) are going to drop the regular scum reads because of their relative newness.
And the key difference between you and some other inactives' behavior and HardCorey's behavior is that he just disappeared. That means he's really being detrimental to town if we ever do get into a LYLO/MYLO situation and we have to second guess. He's not beneficial to town in any way possible and it's not a bad idea to get rid of him with all the inactives running rampant.
This ties in with the reason I don't want to vote for Enervate. He actually replies, so we can get a stronger read on him as the game goes on.
If you have a better argument for someone else, by all means post your analysis. I recommend, however, that you don't sheep someone and state your reasoning on voting for x person.
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+ Show Spoiler +On April 25 2011 11:42 Conversion wrote: 23 minutes.. wow.
and you're right vyro, I probably got a little carried away in my analysis. But this is how the game should be played. We're all relatively new; just because inactives don't put in the effort to try and be better at the game does not mean people who are trying (ie, me) are going to drop the regular scum reads because of their relative newness.
And the key difference between you and some other inactives' behavior and HardCorey's behavior is that he just disappeared. That means he's really being detrimental to town if we ever do get into a LYLO/MYLO situation and we have to second guess. He's not beneficial to town in any way possible and it's not a bad idea to get rid of him with all the inactives running rampant.
This ties in with the reason I don't want to vote for Enervate. He actually replies, so we can get a stronger read on him as the game goes on.
If you have a better argument for someone else, by all means post your analysis. I recommend, however, that you don't sheep someone and state your reasoning on voting for x person.
The sheeping/bandwagoning on HardCorey is part of why I don't think he's the best choice to kill. It just seems like people are jumping on him because he's got the most votes so far. It seems like he's probably going to get lynched anyway though, so it probably doesn't matter too much right now.
Also, sorry for the double post above. I clicked back on my browser and it reposted that. I PMed Doc H to see if I could edit it to delete it or put it in a spoiler so it'll take up less room.
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Game ending/shift time changed to Midnight EST.
Jaminz given permission to edit to conserve space
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Yeah but the bandwagoning happened with Enervate too.
Each to his own, I guess. I'm sticking with HardCorey.
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Vote tally:
Jaminz: 1 (pHelix Equilibria)
Enervate: 3 (Jaminz, Rising_Phoenix, aScle)
pHelix Equilibria: 1 (HardCorey)
HardCorey: 5 (FezTheCaliph, Sirael, Freestalker, Enervate, Conversion)
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Vyro initially voted for pHelix Equilibria, but then unvoted. He never posted who he'd like to change his vote to, so it's hard to say what happens there. If his vote doesn't count, then the tally is the same as above. If it counts for pHelix Equilibria, then change pHelix Equilibria's count to 2.
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no, i was waiting to see if any more posts showed up to sway me. hardcorey really has done nothing so far, so although, he's probably a townie (statistically, not gut feeling), we don't have much else to go on right now. i don't really see enervate as scummy, though i find it odd ascle doesn't recognize his accusations as joking.
##Vote HardCorey
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Okay. I've been through the posts and here's what I think. I haven't cross analyzed some players who have played in other mafia games so forgive that oversight.
pHenix: + Show Spoiler +He's been posting semi-frequently but he hasn't had any major contributions to the thread. His biggest post is this: On April 24 2011 22:18 pHelix Equilibria wrote: After reading quite abit of these analyses. Its hard to make judgement calls when people are making these analysis out of 2 or 3 posts that are like 3 sentences long. If there isn't enough to information to draw conclusions from, the best bet would be the inactive. They had a days to say something. At the least we can keep the people interested in the game to stay and therefore more posts to look at. Thats my two cents. Every other post is is band-waggoning or minor filler posts. He latched on my idea to vote for Jaminz at the point when he's been inactive, though since then he(Jaminz) has made a major change since then. As far as I know pHenix has not made another post since this one, and as you can see it hasn't helped us much than to focus on inactives. If we look at motivations, it could mean one of two things: 1)pHenix is a blue and is just sitting in the middle ground to keep from getting mafia attention but enough to look like he's contributing 2)pHenix is mafia and trying to hide by only vaguely contributing. If we put pressure on him we might see how this develops.
HardCorey: + Show Spoiler +He posted anything recently. Either he is disinterested in the game or is hiding. As a Blue he gets nothing from being completely nonresponsive. at most Mafia, at least an AFK player.
FezTheCaliph: + Show Spoiler +Fez has been quite active posting. Nothing significant, however. This seems like potential blue or mafia behavior like pHenix if he is being conservative so he doesn't draw attention. He has been a nice cheerleader though and supportive/arguing different decision points. and has good reasons for his lynch votes. He also posted an extensive analysis on everyone here. Probable townie.
Sirael + Show Spoiler +He has been pretty inactive, though this is barring the fact that most of us are in US and he is in Germany so he won't be active at a similar time than us. His largest post puts some suspicion on Jaminz and aScle. Also there are no posts from his account other than these few posts, so it's hard to put huge money on him. I think he's a townie.
Freestalker: + Show Spoiler +One of the most active posters, and definitely very free about posting his thoughts and trying to get people to talk. He doesn't try to hide and he doesn't jump around in his opinions of other people. He seems to be rallying with Conversion as leaders for our group, and is becoming a pretty important member. I think he's a townie based off of this post: On April 25 2011 02:37 freestalker wrote:Show nested quote +On April 25 2011 02:13 Enervate wrote: If I was mafia, wouldn't I be trying to defend myself more and vote for other people? In my opinion, mafia members have more motive to participate actively and try to vote people who aren't mafia members. I mean, mafia members must have realized by now that not writing huge long posts makes you look suspicious.
##Vote jaminz Mafia members would know I'm not a mafia member and try to vote me. Seems like 3 people have voted me so far. Hmmmmm.
I am sorry mate but your post makes no sense. What you're saying is - mafia members have more motive to participate actively -- are you saying townies are the ones less active in an average game? if so, you are very wrong. Passivity and no posting is an optimal ground for mafia to hide, since if noone posts, they don't have to post either. If they don't post, they can't make slip-ups and can't be analyzed later. huge long posts = a lot of information to analyze, sooner or later. The more you type the more you can be analyzed, the more consistent you have to be if you're trying to pull off some trickery. And one of those three votes is mine that has been there for quite a while and is going to stay there unless you give me a good reason to change this. He argues that townies are and should be active and out posting, getting people to post, and calling out inactive members. Considering he is taking his own advice he is probably a townie.
Which brings us too:
Enervate: + Show Spoiler +Enervate seems to be a weird poster in the group. However, there are a few posts that stand out to me. especially his most recent ones. On April 25 2011 02:13 Enervate wrote: If I was mafia, wouldn't I be trying to defend myself more and vote for other people? In my opinion, mafia members have more motive to participate actively and try to vote people who aren't mafia members. I mean, mafia members must have realized by now that not writing huge long posts makes you look suspicious.
##Vote jaminz Mafia members would know I'm not a mafia member and try to vote me. Seems like 3 people have voted me so far. Hmmmmm.
He argues that mafia members would vote against him and that there are three people voting against him, and therefore since he knows he's innocent and randomly attacks the person to put an argument against him. Looking at his previous post history, we don't see much in the way of activity though clearly in his TL profile he is an active poster (4.5 posts per day), yet he has posted very little in this game. Since then, he posted a minor analysis which has really said nothing more than Fez isn't mafia and everything else we've heard from other members. However, when voting for inactive he very happily joins in. On April 25 2011 07:18 Enervate wrote: Ok I guess I will follow the trend of voting for inactives as well.
##Unvote
##Vote HardCorey To me this looks pretty mafia-esque. I'm going to stick with my vote for him for now.
Conversion + Show Spoiler +He has been a very active poster and really helped rally the town-members together along with free-stalker. His posts show that he's taking initiative and trying to get everyone involved, pointing out inactive players and getting them to posts as well. All in all, I think he's probably a townie.
Jaminz + Show Spoiler +Since being active after traveling, He's been quite active as a poster, writing that super extensive analysis and really got the ball rolling for getting people to start posting their opinions on people. (bad sentence =D) Anyways, he's been active, but not taking as many leadership qualities as Free or Conversion, and has been a bit conservative on posting opinions. I think he's blue.
vyro: + Show Spoiler +He has been fairly inactive lately. His last post was page 6 and since then he has contributed nothing. I feel like he's trying to slip through right now, but if he comes out and says something I'm not going throw him under a bus. I consider him a potential mafia. In time of writing this, he joined his vote against HardCorey.
aScle: + Show Spoiler +Minor posting again, but more active currently than vryo. Haven't seen him make any big accusations or opinions yet and it's been two (real time) days. Another person to coax out and see what happens when he starts making larger posts.
I spent more time writing this than most papers =P. I'm sticking with Enervate as my vote unless he gives me a really good reason to change.
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