Newbie Mini Mafia I - Page 15

On April 29 2011 21:44 Rising_Phoenix wrote:
I made some mistakes but I would like to see an active player point them out =]

GG all, hope to see you in other games!

On April 24 2011 04:50 Rising_Phoenix wrote:
##Unvote

Sorry I was at a horn concert and doing some other stuff as well.

First, looking at this mathematically there are 11 players, 3 of which are mafia. If you randomly choose a person there is a approx. 27% chance of getting it right. However, choosing randomly is a bad idea since you never know if you're lynching an important member (cop or medic).

The cop should look up a random member that isn't himself(obviously). That means there is a 3 in 10 chance of him being right (30%). If he is right, he should be able to hint to everyone else who is mafia. That leaves everyone else voting on another person. If you know who the cop/detective is, that leaves a 3 in 9 chance (33%) of being right. That's from 1/5 to 1/3 probability of being right. I don't know how well this works for day one but numbers are fun =].

----- Break for other half---
Leadership for townies is essential, and right now it looks like Conversion and Freestalker are the two most active in leading conversation and topics. Unless one of them slips up, I'd refrain from killing either of them for now.

On April 24 2011 04:50 Rising_Phoenix wrote:
aScle and Jaminz have had very little to contribute. Their posts have little to no content

On April 24 2011 11:39 Rising_Phoenix wrote:
And here's another thought: The more we post trying to figure out mafia, the more the mafia is trying to figure out important roles: the doctor and the detective. Posting is a two sided sword. Post too much and people thing you're either trying to be too good or being too active for a reason, or too inactive you're trying to hard something. Sometimes an inactive poster is just and inactive poster for one reason or another.

On April 25 2011 22:35 Rising_Phoenix wrote:
In retrospect, I took a quick look at Hardcorey's post count. I noticed he didn't post ANYTHING since April 25th. If we looked at his posting history in his profile before we made a decision, it would be really easy to see he wasn't on TL at all. However, we're were looking at the game out of context and didn't match up that he was completely gone. If we realized this, we could have saved Corey for a later lynch and instead voted for someone suspicious.

Oh well, we're learning at least.

On April 26 2011 05:27 Rising_Phoenix wrote:
@Sirael don't you mean 12am?

Really right now I think we should be figuring out who to protect for night one. Here are possible people for doc to protect:

1) Free: most active poster, trying to figure out who jumped the bandwagon and likes to push pressure on other members to get them to contribute. Right now inactivity is our biggest weakness since it is allowing mafia to potentially hide as lurkers in the thread.

2) Jaminz: Excellent constructive posts, and is willing to argue a case if he thinks he's right and uses good arguments to prove his points.

3) Conversion: Helping us rally on a, to be honest, pretty bad loss. Even though Corey was definitely inactive, and therefore useless, it helps that someone is helping us push on to find who is mafia.

4) Myself: I'm selfish, and I want protection =]. Also, if Jaminz, myself, or aScle, who all voted for Enervate, were to die, than it would mean Enervate could be mafia trying to save his skin.

On April 26 2011 23:36 Rising_Phoenix wrote:
Wow the forum exploded since I was asleep.

There is something interesting I am noticing. As we are chasing against Vyro there is someone completely missing from the conversation.

Enervate.

Think about who would most benefit from a change of focus. Enervate was 2nd highest in the vote count as lynching, Me, Jaminz, and aScle voted against him and remained against him. Because of Jaminz post against vyro, we're all suddenly attacking him. And to be honest, there is a pretty convincing case against him. But isn't it odd that Enervate, #2 on day1 lynch, hasn't posted anything since his defense? He gave no help in analysis and his defense of not being mafia were, to be honest, pretty bad.

Looking at his post history he's been active in other threads so we know he's not dead, but he hasn't posted in this one. History here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/search.php?q=&t=c&f=-1&u=Enervate&gb=date

If anyone has a good counterargument let me know, but for now he looks incredibly suspicious.