|
On March 03 2011 05:18 Barundar wrote:
And one more thing cubed, why would you want to lynch Jbright over seraph, who has a few analysis he hasnt responded to, and is leading in votes? What do you actually think of Seraph and LSB?
Either is fine with me. Be it Jbright, Seraph or Chaoser.
I chose Jbright because I saw a post where someone was grouping them together (JBright/Seraph/LD i think but I can't find it right now).
I need to look through the thread again, but it was basically saying that if one of them is red it's highly likely that all three of them are.
If it comes to it, I'll look, but, as I said, I'm ok with either.
And to a lesser extent, I'd be ok with LD, but he seems to have picked up his posting a bit so I'm not willing to peg him as scum just yet.
I am very much against the LSB lynch though, since he's one of the more experienced players, and people seem to be quite quick at jumping on the wagon. Bumatlarge made some interesting points, but it seems that we are dismissing the day-1 lynch which was largely attributed to LSB.
Of course you can say it was luck (as he was probably gonna buss annul anyway), or that it's a complicated mafia plan, but the fact of the matter is that it got us a dead mafia.
Also, Barundar, you're saying that you want to be lynching the mafia, but are you 100% LSB is red? Are we going over that whole "nobody should be sure" thing again?
|
I love how different people wants to lynch me when someone else flips red.
|
i love the super defensive response to my aggressive response to your aggressive call out
|
On March 03 2011 05:01 CubEdIn wrote:
Ok I understand all the analysis, but you're missing one point:
If you are all correct, and you are saying that mafia only used ONE role-block, then why are we instantly assuming it was LSB who lied?
I am only asking because I see no good reason for LSB to lie, other than to semi-confirm himself as town.
I'm just saying, if I was red, and I wanted to pull something like this, I wouldn't be claiming Role-Block from the first few hours of the day, I would wait and see if nobody else claims, because it's "unsafe" to do that so early.
The only way I see it is if he saw 3 kills and figured that mafia don't have any more KPs to use.
Not that I have anything against Jackal, I really don't, but I don't know why people are hating on LSB and nobody is really pushing Jackal.
I considered not claiming it at all. But then I decided that it would be better if town knew. It does a few things. Forces a discussion of scum kp. Forces a discussion of what advantage it would give to either LSB or I to claim RB. At the time I made the claim I thought LSB was lying. Now I'm not so sure of that position. Even if he was that would mean scum are sitting on 3 kp. If so they will still be able to kill 3 of us tomorrow night. I see no advantages to scum for lying. Why bring that kind of attention to yourself? I dunno. Maybe I'm thinking to hard about this.
The only possible reason I can see for scum to claim a fake RB is to create a scenario where both people that claimed get lynched. Trading 1 town for 1 scum. If mafia team is still capable of killing 3/night they have no reason to trade.
|
On March 03 2011 05:40 Barundar wrote:Show nested quote +On March 03 2011 05:36 Coagulation wrote:
I just want to point at that I STARTED THE DAY WITH VOTE ON JBRIGHT People followed and he had a good amount of votes and suddenly suspects are being brought up left and right now
THE AMOUNT OF SUSPECTS THAT POPPED UP FOR DEBATE SO EARLY INTO THE LYNCH INDICATES JBRIGHT IS SCUM.
You vote with no reason. There is several analyses afterwards, and really the only 2 other targets are Seraph and LSB. Other targets didn't just pop up, different people argued for them, you didn't for yours. How about you criticise the analyses instead of the targets?
On March 03 2011 05:36 Coagulation wrote:
I just want to point at that I STARTED THE DAY WITH VOTE ON JBRIGHT People followed and he had a good amount of votes and suddenly suspects are being brought up left and right now
THE AMOUNT OF SUSPECTS THAT POPPED UP FOR DEBATE SO EARLY INTO THE LYNCH INDICATES JBRIGHT IS SCUM.
This is my fucking analysis on him THATS WHY I POSTED IT GJ. so far and there are plenty of other people who have done writeups on him. however you completely attack me and try to discredit any significance of this POST
|
Bumatlarge made some interesting points, but it seems that we are dismissing the day-1 lynch which was largely attributed to LSB.
LSB attributed it to LSB.
Also, Barundar, you're saying that you want to be lynching the mafia, but are you 100% LSB is red? Are we going over that whole "nobody should be sure" thing again?
I picked up on an obvious flaw in your argument. You basicly said: I get the argument and I think that one of them is red. But I think someone should have raised suspecion against Jackal as well, so I think we should lynch Chaoser. How does that even make sense? If you believe the argument, then you should be discussing Jackal and LSB, yet you don't seem to be willing to do that.
I never said I was 100 % certain LSB is red, but I never stopped hunting for mafia, or talked about lynching for information like you 
|
honestly there can only be 1 kind of player that looks at someone who is posting analysis and IMMEDIATLY jumps all over that persons shit about needing to "CONTRIBUTE ANALYSIS" and ignore/discredit any other aspect of the post immediately.
|
Coag, you throw dice in the air to decide what day of the week it is.
|
On March 03 2011 05:56 Barundar wrote:Show nested quote +Bumatlarge made some interesting points, but it seems that we are dismissing the day-1 lynch which was largely attributed to LSB. LSB attributed it to LSB. Show nested quote +Also, Barundar, you're saying that you want to be lynching the mafia, but are you 100% LSB is red? Are we going over that whole "nobody should be sure" thing again? I picked up on an obvious flaw in your argument. You basicly said: I get the argument and I think that one of them is red. But I think someone should have raised suspecion against Jackal as well, so I think we should lynch Chaoser. How does that even make sense? If you believe the argument, then you should be discussing Jackal and LSB, yet you don't seem to be willing to do that. I never said I was 100 % certain LSB is red, but I never stopped hunting for mafia, or talked about lynching for information like you
You misunderstand.
I said that I get the argument that one of them could be red, since we don't get where the extra action comes from, but I am suspicious of the fact that people are so quick to jump on LSB, and not Jackal.
I don't think that Jackal is red, and I don't see why LSB would claim being Role-Blocked.
I never said I'm 100% sure that one of them is red. If LSB flips green are we lynching Jackal, based on your argument?
I'm not "discussing" Jackal and LSB because I already said (and not once) that they seem town to me. Albeit there's a lot of WIFOM that can lead to LSB being red. No actual proof though.
|
On March 03 2011 06:05 CubEdIn wrote:Show nested quote +On March 03 2011 05:56 Barundar wrote:Bumatlarge made some interesting points, but it seems that we are dismissing the day-1 lynch which was largely attributed to LSB. LSB attributed it to LSB. Also, Barundar, you're saying that you want to be lynching the mafia, but are you 100% LSB is red? Are we going over that whole "nobody should be sure" thing again? I picked up on an obvious flaw in your argument. You basicly said: I get the argument and I think that one of them is red. But I think someone should have raised suspecion against Jackal as well, so I think we should lynch Chaoser. How does that even make sense? If you believe the argument, then you should be discussing Jackal and LSB, yet you don't seem to be willing to do that. I never said I was 100 % certain LSB is red, but I never stopped hunting for mafia, or talked about lynching for information like you You misunderstand. I said that I get the argument that one of them could be red, since we don't get where the extra action comes from, but I am suspicious of the fact that people are so quick to jump on LSB, and not Jackal.
I don't think that Jackal is red, and I don't see why LSB would claim being Role-Blocked. I never said I'm 100% sure that one of them is red. If LSB flips green are we lynching Jackal, based on your argument? I'm not "discussing" Jackal and LSB because I already said (and not once) that they seem town to me. Albeit there's a lot of WIFOM that can lead to LSB being red. No actual proof though.
Because a good portion of day 2 was consumed by an LSB vs Barundar pissing contest.
Plus he's probably better looking than I am.
|
United States22154 Posts
Alright, LSB requested that I please post my PM conversation with seraph, so I decided there would be no harm in doing so, keep in mind this conversation took place in the firs 3-4 hours of the first day
+ Show Spoiler +Original Message From seRapH:
Well I hit a pretty number so I'll stop posting in the thread and move to PMs ^_^
Anyways, what's your take on chaoser and gryffindor?
+ Show Spoiler +Original Message From GMarshal:
chaoser is an active poster, so even if he is mafia I would let him be for now, as he is likely to slip up later, right now I want to see who is going to be inactive and pressure the hell out of them. gryffindor sets off my scum radar because of his vet claim, especially after I said not to claim, however I just don;t think he would be stupid enough to post that if he were mafia.
annul is annoying me due to what I see as his intentional stupidity, which could be a scum tell, coag is being his usual unreadable self, so I may consider proposing him as a lynch target
your thoughts?
+ Show Spoiler +Original Message From seRapH:
Chaoser strikes me as a panicking scum, but I could be wrong. Selfish townies like staying alive too. At the very least he's made my list to watch. Gryffindor is either really bad or is playing a game with some sort of intricate plan. I'm looking at the setup though, and I don't see how a mass claim could benefit town within reasonable probability.
Honestly, I'm really afraid of annul, since the two games I've played with him he's been godfather XD. And both times he's won. So who knows. If he starts an unreasonable bandwagon though I'm going to push for his lynch.
Coag I've learned to ignore. If we really get nothing better at the end of the day though may as well kill him because he really won't be giving us anything In any case, we have a lot of time. We should be able to dig up something better than coag.
+ Show Spoiler +Original Message From GMarshal:
The thing with Chaoser is that he gets targeted day1 almost every game so he takes poorly to it, I'm in a PM circle with him however and he seems like he is pro town at the moment, however I will keep my eye on him. Gryffindor i dont understand, he is top of my scum list ATM, there is no way claiming vet is a good idea, and I honestly don't believe him, mass claims generally don't help town except in really specific setups, so it wouldn't help here
Annul I haven't played much with so I'll believe your read of his playstyle when you get one, I actually really respect coag's scum hunting abilities, despite his occasional slip up (Guts and Glory, ugh >.<), so if only for that I'd like to keep him around
barring any solid scum reads today I'm going to go for an inactive/lurker lynch
however we still have 46 hours or so, so we'll have more to analyze tommorow.
+ Show Spoiler +Original Message From seRapH:
Oh ok. Not too familiar with chaoser, first game with him (I think?). You're in a whole circle with him? Huh. Well I'm sure you know what you're doing.
Gryffindor... His votes thus far have been on who? Foolishness and you? He's piling on the scumminess. The only thing he's got going for him is that no one's even trying to defend him. But maybe his scumbuddies just haven't had time to voice themselves.
And conversation two on 2/26/11 18:25
+ Show Spoiler +Original Message From GMarshal:
So, since you seem to be shy of posting in the thread or something I thought I'd PM you
So, what are your thoughts on the current situation?
+ Show Spoiler +Lol sorry I'm not exactly on top of my game right now
There is definitely experience in the mafia. If annul gave up because his team sucked it was not because everyone on his team sucked. Look towards veterans and good players, at least one of them is scum, I wouldn't be surprised if it were someone who's usually much more active too.
Who are you thinking about lynching, or are you content with staying back and watching people's reactions for now?
I might have to end up trusting your judgement by the end of the day, depending on how sober I am in 48 hours >_>
+ Show Spoiler +At this point I want to see how people react to pressure, I'm starting to light a fire under the inactives, (i've PMed most of them), and the OMGUS by gryff was really suspicious. Also cube is lurking which is really rare in him, so I would look to him as a potential scum. I can understand being busy on a weekend, (I have exams next week, its going to be glorious -_- ) so no worries, we still have 48 hours to see how things play out
So yeah, nothing in there that I see as incriminating, in fact I think it points at seraph being town. Thoughts?
|
+ Show Spoiler +On March 03 2011 06:18 GMarshal wrote:Alright, LSB requested that I please post my PM conversation with seraph, so I decided there would be no harm in doing so, keep in mind this conversation took place in the firs 3-4 hours of the first day + Show Spoiler +Original Message From seRapH:
Well I hit a pretty number so I'll stop posting in the thread and move to PMs ^_^
Anyways, what's your take on chaoser and gryffindor? Original Message From GMarshal:
chaoser is an active poster, so even if he is mafia I would let him be for now, as he is likely to slip up later, right now I want to see who is going to be inactive and pressure the hell out of them. gryffindor sets off my scum radar because of his vet claim, especially after I said not to claim, however I just don;t think he would be stupid enough to post that if he were mafia.
annul is annoying me due to what I see as his intentional stupidity, which could be a scum tell, coag is being his usual unreadable self, so I may consider proposing him as a lynch target
your thoughts? Original Message From seRapH:
Chaoser strikes me as a panicking scum, but I could be wrong. Selfish townies like staying alive too. At the very least he's made my list to watch. Gryffindor is either really bad or is playing a game with some sort of intricate plan. I'm looking at the setup though, and I don't see how a mass claim could benefit town within reasonable probability.
Honestly, I'm really afraid of annul, since the two games I've played with him he's been godfather XD. And both times he's won. So who knows. If he starts an unreasonable bandwagon though I'm going to push for his lynch.
Coag I've learned to ignore. If we really get nothing better at the end of the day though may as well kill him because he really won't be giving us anything In any case, we have a lot of time. We should be able to dig up something better than coag. Original Message From GMarshal:
The thing with Chaoser is that he gets targeted day1 almost every game so he takes poorly to it, I'm in a PM circle with him however and he seems like he is pro town at the moment, however I will keep my eye on him. Gryffindor i dont understand, he is top of my scum list ATM, there is no way claiming vet is a good idea, and I honestly don't believe him, mass claims generally don't help town except in really specific setups, so it wouldn't help here
Annul I haven't played much with so I'll believe your read of his playstyle when you get one, I actually really respect coag's scum hunting abilities, despite his occasional slip up (Guts and Glory, ugh >.<), so if only for that I'd like to keep him around
barring any solid scum reads today I'm going to go for an inactive/lurker lynch
however we still have 46 hours or so, so we'll have more to analyze tommorow.
Original Message From seRapH:
Oh ok. Not too familiar with chaoser, first game with him (I think?). You're in a whole circle with him? Huh. Well I'm sure you know what you're doing.
Gryffindor... His votes thus far have been on who? Foolishness and you? He's piling on the scumminess. The only thing he's got going for him is that no one's even trying to defend him. But maybe his scumbuddies just haven't had time to voice themselves. And conversation two on 2/26/11 18:25 + Show Spoiler +Original Message From GMarshal:
So, since you seem to be shy of posting in the thread or something I thought I'd PM you
So, what are your thoughts on the current situation? Lol sorry I'm not exactly on top of my game right now
There is definitely experience in the mafia. If annul gave up because his team sucked it was not because everyone on his team sucked. Look towards veterans and good players, at least one of them is scum, I wouldn't be surprised if it were someone who's usually much more active too.
Who are you thinking about lynching, or are you content with staying back and watching people's reactions for now?
I might have to end up trusting your judgement by the end of the day, depending on how sober I am in 48 hours >_> At this point I want to see how people react to pressure, I'm starting to light a fire under the inactives, (i've PMed most of them), and the OMGUS by gryff was really suspicious. Also cube is lurking which is really rare in him, so I would look to him as a potential scum. I can understand being busy on a weekend, (I have exams next week, its going to be glorious -_- ) so no worries, we still have 48 hours to see how things play out So yeah, nothing in there that I see as incriminating, in fact I think it points at seraph being town. Thoughts?
First thought is if you, LSB and Seraph are all scum this means nothing. I'm not pointing an FoS at anybody I'm just not interested in reading PMs
|
Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
That first PM convo was from the first day, when he was actually here and trying to post. According to my sources, he's been very inactive in PM land recently.
I think we as teamliquid mafia players should all make a thread called "Lynching for information is stupid" in which we all post in it and say "lynching for information is stupid" and post examples from games that show "lynching for information is stupid".
I hope I got my point across there -_-
Look guys, with the votes so spread out right now, a townie is sure to die. Some clever last minute mafia posting can easily lead to one or two people switching their votes onto a townspeople. At the very least we should pile onto two players would we think are the most suspicious (Seraph and Jbright in my opinion).
LSB has clearly shown that he is active enough to respond to posts against him. Thus he will definitely be 100% active tomorrow to answer posts against him. What about Seraph and JBright? Are they going to be active tomorrow to respond to our posts? Who knows.
We need to deal with our inactive scum suspects now. Yes, now. Not tomorrow or later. I don't care how much you think LSB is mafia, lynching him now is not in the best town's interest (I say this even though I am suspicious of him as well). How many mafia games have been played where town lynched all the active players who were "suspicious" and then lost because they couldn't figure out the inactive mafia players? Quite a lot, it happens almost every game the mafia win.
I am not convinced LSB is mafia. Others have the same attitude I do. You want to convince me? Spend the rest of today, tonight, and tomorrow posting stuff against him. I guarantee you he's going to be here to respond (if he's not, that just makes it all the easier to convince the rest of us). Tomorrow I highly doubt we are going to have any new information on JBright or Seraph. Which is why we need to lynch one of them now and not later.
If LSB is mafia, he'll slip up the more and more you guys pressure him (yeah you probably think he's slipped up 50 times already, but I'm not convinced). JBright and Seraph aren't going to slip up because they aren't going to ever post except to vote last minute.
Do what's best for the town.
btw did you guys know there is a player in this game by the name of "LastArgument"? Did you guys know that he's probably mafia? Just a friendly reminder.
|
Just a few things:
Cubed does have a good point that people seem to be missing. Why ignore the possibility of Jackal being the one with the fake roleclaim. Chaoser doesn't even mention it and bum simply says 'Now, I can't say much on jackal'
Regardless of what the situation is with them is, the fact that this was ignored in the analysis is the important point.
Those PMs do paint a somewhat different picture of seraph. If seraph was trying to bus annul why didn't he do so in the thread?
|
On March 03 2011 06:39 Foolishness wrote:
btw did you guys know there is a player in this game by the name of "LastArgument"? Did you guys know that he's probably mafia? Just a friendly reminder.
I was just about to say that theres a lot of lurkers, especially ohn and LA.
|
United States22154 Posts
Actualy I think LastArgument slipped under my radar entirely, also Foolishness you make some pretty good points, if LSB is scum he is going to keep posting and we'll eventually catch him with a scummy post, so I guess voting for him is not a good idea.
as a request can you link to a game where town lynched for information and it worked out poorly? I'm not doubting your statement, but I would like to read it for myself.
For now I'm going to vote for an inactive/lurking player, I offered him a chance to reform, but I guess it wasn't good enough
##unvote
##Vote: JBright
|
On March 03 2011 06:43 deconduo wrote:
Just a few things:
Cubed does have a good point that people seem to be missing. Why ignore the possibility of Jackal being the one with the fake roleclaim. Chaoser doesn't even mention it and bum simply says 'Now, I can't say much on jackal'
Regardless of what the situation is with them is, the fact that this was ignored in the analysis is the important point.
Those PMs do paint a somewhat different picture of seraph. If seraph was trying to bus annul why didn't he do so in the thread?
It's because LSB is at the front end of several peoples scum list. The only reason I can think of. I fully expected to be thoroughly grilled by posting my RB.
|
On March 03 2011 06:03 bumatlarge wrote:
Coag, you throw dice in the air to decide what day of the week it is.
winning post imo
|
LOOKS LIKE SCUMATLARGE STILL HAS AN ACE UP HIS SLEEVE
|
On March 03 2011 06:50 Jackal58 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 03 2011 06:43 deconduo wrote:
Just a few things:
Cubed does have a good point that people seem to be missing. Why ignore the possibility of Jackal being the one with the fake roleclaim. Chaoser doesn't even mention it and bum simply says 'Now, I can't say much on jackal'
Regardless of what the situation is with them is, the fact that this was ignored in the analysis is the important point.
Those PMs do paint a somewhat different picture of seraph. If seraph was trying to bus annul why didn't he do so in the thread?
It's because LSB is at the front end of several peoples scum list. The only reason I can think of. I fully expected to be thoroughly grilled by posting my RB.
Again the point is not whether or not you are more suspicious than LSB, but that chaos and bum completely ignored the possibility of it.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
