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TL Mafia XVIII - Page 51

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Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
February 15 2010 10:56 GMT
#1001
On February 15 2010 06:53 redtooth wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
enough of this. time to get the ball rolling. please prepare for content because...

I AM ANNOUNCING MY CANDIDACY FOR MAYOR
[image loading]

PLATFORM
I am running for mayor. Some of you may know that I never run for any position regardless of my role, the reasons being similar to the ones Ver listed. However, I am willing to invest enough energy and effort to lead the town to victory.

I have participated in enough mafia games and have developed an adequate understanding of the game. My play so far has demonstrated that I am capable of the high level thinking required for mayor of the town.

Also, I am a Decision Science major at Carnegie Mellon. I play mafia for a living.

THE OTHER CANDIDATES
All of the other veterans running thus far (Ace, BC, L) have too much suspicion surrounding them to be good mayor candidates. Some of the other candidates are either jokes (Chezinu, MasterDana, l10f), or unproven so far in the game (meeple, DrH, citizen).

Electing Ver after how the early portion of the elections played out earlier is very very dangerous. I stated earlier that we should not vote for Ver but refrained from explicitly laying out the reasons why. Now that he has outright declared his candidacy, I guess it's time to share my thought process. Quoting an earlier PM I sent to someone:
2/14 16:21

logically it would make sense not to give Ver the "option" to step in and win the election. each mafia family will likely send out one mayor candidate and that makes elections hard enough. that's why we scrutinize the list of mayor candidates so thoroughly. if we give Ver the "option" of becoming mayor, he isn't scrutinized as much and when pressed on the idea that mafia families would push a member to candidacy he could say that he was "forced" into the position. or if a member of the same mafia family would be runner up in the votes then he could just step aside and use that fact later as defense.

now were he to have outright declared candidacy in the first place i wouldn't have minded voting for him. actually i probably would have voted for him. but that thought process would have been much different. he seems like such an attractive candidate now because he's smart and wasn't involved in any of the mess.
Ver has, knowingly or unknowingly, taken advantage of the opportunity and halfheartedly declared his candidacy. This is the exact position we wanted to avoid. Before I was planning on running for Mayor, I requested that he withdraw his candidacy but I think just explaining the reasons in public should be enough to show that electing him as mayor is unwise.

PRE-EMPTIVE DEFENSE
Some may be suspicious of me due to my somewhat passionate defense of Ace. As stated before, I have a high degree of respect for Ace and did not want to kill him off due to what I perceived as clue analysis on red herrings. I also don't believe any of the veterans should be killed to "gain interesting insight into how Incognito's clues are going to work" (quoted from [NyC]HoBbes).

My late entry into mayoral race shouldn't be regarded with too much suspicion either. Nobody expected the mayor candidates to be caught up in so much shit. I wasn't voted for prior to my announcement so my argument against Ver's candidacy doesn't apply to me.

LYNCH CANDIDATE
If elected mayor, I plan on lynching Bill Murray. There are obvious reasons (noted by Chezinu in a previous post) why we should be suspicious of him but there is much more to gain from lynching BM. So far he has presented himself as either a bad mafia or an idiot townie. Of course there is a chance that he flips green when mayor lynched and we waste a lynch but we get rid of a player that has a history of being detrimental to the town and isn't too valuable an asset to the town if he is indeed green. However, in the case that he flips red, we are provided with a wealth of information via the list that he posted.

So far Bill has yet to post a legitimate defense, choosing instead to make a string of five or so posts that amounts to a desperate strike back at those that accused him. This makes him highly suspicious in my book. I am planning on checking over his behavior in the last game he played but

FUTURE PLANS
To kill the mafia of course. We have to use our lynches to maximum efficiency and somehow get the DTs to broadcast their information without revealing their identity. Later on in the game, clue analysis should be more abundant than ever before because all players (mafia and town-aligned) benefit from the analysis.

If Bill Murray flips red then the focus should immediately shift to the list he posted. The most notable oddity in the list was the absence of Ace despite the mountain of suspicion surrounding him. Please also remember that I was on the list. If anything, it would make sense that either both of us are on the list (a mafia defending a fellow mafia), neither of us are on the list (a townie defending a fellow townie), or Ace is on but I'm not (a mistaken townie risking his neck to defend a mafia). It doesn't make sense that I am on the list but Ace is not (a mafia defending a random townie). Please note that my attempt to lynch Bill Murray isn't out of anger towards him due to my name being on the list. So as of now I would place Ace in the same 'group' as Bill Murray. Though I fought hard to defend Ace thus far, he is far from exonerated and L's clue analysis is as solid as you can possibly get with only Day 1 clues. That means, depending on what color Bill flips, Ace becomes highly suspicious once more.

Having said all that I feel that we should keep all the veterans alive as long as possible. They are capable of identifying mafia and (whether its through clue analysis or behavior analysis) call out individuals to lynch. Why is this beneficial for the town? Well as I stated earlier, town can't win if mafia takes out town first but at the same time a mafia family can't win unless they kill off the other mafia family. To identify and call out a mafia member in public would mean either the town or the opposing mafia family can kill that person off. Also, anyone who's been mafia before would know that killing off a veteran mafia member doesn't really get rid of their influence (due to reasons I don't want to state publicly).

tl;dr
You shouldn't vote for other mayor candidates due to various reasons. Vote for me. I am reasonable, logical, and have basic plans with more in the making. Most importantly, I am innocent.

Thank you for your time.


if you and I are the only candidates, why were you pushing for my lynch?
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
February 15 2010 10:57 GMT
#1002
On February 15 2010 19:42 redtooth wrote:
how is it logical to vote for anyone other than me and BM? seriously.


not exactly the only candidates, but the only ones worth voting for?
to me, i am, because i will flip green or black.
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
rredtooth
Profile Blog Joined December 2008
5460 Posts
February 15 2010 11:10 GMT
#1003
goddamit you guys are pulling a pyrr on me and getting me to tilt. seriously. BM i'm not going to lynch you. and i was pushing for your lynch when you weren't proven innocent. it's because we pushed for your lynch that you were proven innocent.

and nikoner you really need to start thinking more. good night.
[formerly sponsored by the artist formerly known as Gene]
Abenson
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
Canada4122 Posts
February 15 2010 14:35 GMT
#1004
It's time i posted something useful :D

As of now, if I were the mafia I would just sit back and relax while the town kills each other (like ver said), so therefore the correct actions for town would be to use the power of pm's (?) and also check up on the extremely inactive people.
I also believe that analyzing player's behavior from past games will benefit us greatly, since it's easy to compare the posts, especially if the player is veteran (Ace, Bloodycobbler, Caller... etc.) According to the Mini Mafia games, Ace tends to be a dick and flame whenever he is a townie... but then again veterans have tons of experience so they can act like whatever role they want.
Another notable thing is Chezinu, who, in mini mafia III was actually somewhat calm when compared to the way he is behaving right now.
I believe that ridding the mafia of a veteran player will benefit us greatly, so I think we should all go to the past games and start analyzing the vets :D
Abenson
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
Canada4122 Posts
February 15 2010 14:38 GMT
#1005
I think i'm being paranoid...
but is it true i look noobier cuz my pic is a drone? D:
Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
February 15 2010 14:39 GMT
#1006
On February 15 2010 23:35 Abenson wrote:
It's time i posted something useful :D

As of now, if I were the mafia I would just sit back and relax while the town kills each other (like ver said), so therefore the correct actions for town would be to use the power of pm's (?) and also check up on the extremely inactive people.
I also believe that analyzing player's behavior from past games will benefit us greatly, since it's easy to compare the posts, especially if the player is veteran (Ace, Bloodycobbler, Caller... etc.) According to the Mini Mafia games, Ace tends to be a dick and flame whenever he is a townie... but then again veterans have tons of experience so they can act like whatever role they want.
Another notable thing is Chezinu, who, in mini mafia III was actually somewhat calm when compared to the way he is behaving right now.
I believe that ridding the mafia of a veteran player will benefit us greatly, so I think we should all go to the past games and start analyzing the vets :D


This doesn't make much sense, because the mafia are trying to kill the other mafia, not the other townies.
One does not simply walk into mordor
Abenson
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
Canada4122 Posts
February 15 2010 14:44 GMT
#1007
I think it makes perfect sense...
It if because of precisely that the mafia has to kill each other that they don't have to do much.
There is no need to really participate in the town discussion, since the logical way for mafia to win is to look and analyze clues, decide which one of the clues point to the other mafia, and kill them all.
I'm just trying to think like a mafia... I apologize if I'm thinking illogically or like a noob.
Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
February 15 2010 14:44 GMT
#1008
On February 15 2010 15:23 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 15 2010 15:16 Ace wrote:
On February 15 2010 15:04 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
Information:

If flip red we can analyze:

Vocal Supporters
Who voted for you for mayor, particularly while giving little reason
Vocal accusers (L, Myself, laaan) are very likely not in the same mafia family as you
People trying to distract attention from accusations toward you without offering a real argument
A relatively large amount of posts to analyze from the perspective of a mafia from a specific family

If you flip green, it's fair to analyze:
Vocal accusers seem more suspicious
Voters for the most vocal accusers
People who suddenly bandwagon against you late in the thread/without reason


If I flip red you can't analyze my vocal supporters. There aren't any. No one has supported me so far, only people who have said you guys may be wrong. That isn't support.

It doesn't matter if you're not in the same family - you'd still be suspect.

Who has tried to distract attention from this argument? List them please.

For the very last time, you can't analyze my posts. In fact before you even try and get me killed it might be a wise idea and analyze them now to see what you can find. And by analyze I don't mean "hey guys, look what Ace said" but more akin to what links if any you can see to other people. I ask this sincerely because before you try and kill me on the basis I'm Mafia you should do this BEFORE offing me to make sure you have some clue of what you are doing. Needless to say I think you're so off tangent so this will hopefully show you why you're wrong.

Now if you lynch me when I'm innocent you don't even get any more information based on my last paragraph. You have nothing to link me on. Nothing. you'd start the next day with the SAME information as the last. If you can prove me wrong, do it now by examining my posts and see what you can find that is going to be so mind blowing to the town it gets us a path to the Mafia.


You said yourself if you flip green, that myself/L/laaan are likely mafia. Saying there is no information to be gleaned from your death either way is silly.

I wouldn't call ver a vocal supporter of you, but like redtooth said. If you are mafia, your allies will likely not vehemently defend you but perhaps try to discourage the use of clue analysis. Ver made a post a while back saying that "anyone discouraging clue usage is probably innocent" and it seems to me (please correct me if I'm wrong) that you tried to discourage redtooth from making anti-ver posts with your PM to him.

redtooth just now has added a fair amount to the case for you being scum. You're saying my suspicion isn't based on any analysis, but I've stated many times it has to do with your dodging L's questions, being unwilling to provide alternative solutions, and the biggest basis of your argument being "fuck you I'm ace i dont need to defend myself cuz im ace"


Did you guys read my last post about this? If Ace flips red or green you have an equal chance of being town or mafia. This game is different from the last games because the mafia families:

a) aren't trying to kill townies, but each other
b) don't know who the other family is

So if a person is really pushing for someone's death, and that someone flips red, that wouldn't clear the accuser in my mind. They could be from the other mafia family and got a lucky hit, OR just a townie who got a lucky hit.

Scenario 2: The someone flips green, their accuser could be a mafia who got a lynch wrong, OR a townie who got a lynch wrong.

I'm having a real hard time seeing how we would analyze deaths of lynch candidates.
One does not simply walk into mordor
Abenson
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
Canada4122 Posts
February 15 2010 14:45 GMT
#1009
i can't edit
so imma double to post add this:
:D
Fulgrim
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States560 Posts
February 15 2010 14:46 GMT
#1010
On February 15 2010 23:44 Abenson wrote:
I think it makes perfect sense...
It if because of precisely that the mafia has to kill each other that they don't have to do much.
There is no need to really participate in the town discussion, since the logical way for mafia to win is to look and analyze clues, decide which one of the clues point to the other mafia, and kill them all.
I'm just trying to think like a mafia... I apologize if I'm thinking illogically or like a noob.


Its ok, but I think the mafia would be very involved in the discussion, so they can influence the lynch votes to avoid hitting their members, and to hit the other mafia's members. If they have enough influence they could effectively have an extra KP. That's just my opinion of it.
One does not simply walk into mordor
Abenson
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
Canada4122 Posts
February 15 2010 14:47 GMT
#1011
@Fulgrim
I think this game will be heavy on analyzing behavior...
so back to my point on analyzing past games :D
Amber[LighT]
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States5078 Posts
February 15 2010 15:18 GMT
#1012
On February 15 2010 23:35 Abenson wrote:
It's time i posted something useful :D

As of now, if I were the mafia I would just sit back and relax while the town kills each other (like ver said), so therefore the correct actions for town would be to use the power of pm's (?) and also check up on the extremely inactive people.
I also believe that analyzing player's behavior from past games will benefit us greatly, since it's easy to compare the posts, especially if the player is veteran (Ace, Bloodycobbler, Caller... etc.) According to the Mini Mafia games, Ace tends to be a dick and flame whenever he is a townie... but then again veterans have tons of experience so they can act like whatever role they want.
Another notable thing is Chezinu, who, in mini mafia III was actually somewhat calm when compared to the way he is behaving right now.
I believe that ridding the mafia of a veteran player will benefit us greatly, so I think we should all go to the past games and start analyzing the vets :D


I'm pretty sure Ver was not implying this at all. Also I've learned the hard way to never focus on behavioral analysis. You called out three players who wear many hats. Don't be fooled, this is their strategy, and you will misinterpret clues/kills as a result in the long run.

And Chezinu actually does the same thing every game. What he's doing is pretty similar, except he didn't send mass PM's and the brown group is not being promoted (yet..)
"We have unfinished business, I and he."
789
Profile Joined October 2009
United States959 Posts
February 15 2010 15:25 GMT
#1013
On February 15 2010 16:23 MasterDana wrote:
This may have been brought up and I overlooked it, but discussion about 789 seems to have vanished among this drama.


789 appears to have disappeared for several hours at night in his location of the united states, suspicious or sleeping?

As for the clue analysis ...

The whole horsemen thing ... I can't really refute this by anything else then saying it is a dinosaur, not a horse.

The moon/sun thing ... There are people who have a profile picture that actually have moons in them rather than a sun, I'm too lazy to look them all up, but Ace and Mystlord come to mind off the top of my head.

The aiming thing ... yeah there really is nothing to say there.

The light appearing in the shadows thing ... well you say it yourself, "She proceeds to journey through the shadows provided by the trees. But, as fate would have it, light appears upon her." The poem clearly states it the other way around "Shadows move where light should be."

I dunno ... I think the clue connections to Ace and EMP are stronger than myself ... but of course I'd be biased. Tell me what you plan to learn about me being lynched.
Member of Hyuk Hyuk Hyuk Cafe! He's the next Jaedong, baby!
Abenson
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
Canada4122 Posts
February 15 2010 15:42 GMT
#1014
Meh...
looks like i have much to learn about the whole mafia game TT.TT
meeple
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Canada10211 Posts
February 15 2010 15:48 GMT
#1015
Oh god... I just awoke to 11 more pages and I gotta say that Bill Murray's posting is the visual/literary equivalent of eating shit you found on the street. Please for the love of all that is sacred and holy stop shitting up the thread, nobody in their right mind wants to read that.

Although I think he's green, there's no way I would vote him in for office. As for redtooth, It's hard to say but he's been rather abrasive and personally I would rather a mayor who doesn't tilt so hard all the time.

My vote would probably go to Ver, but it doesn't seem he wants the responsibility so I will vote for DrH, unless there's a strong case made against him.
citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
February 15 2010 15:48 GMT
#1016
As promised, I will share my partial thoughts on player behavior thus far. The list is in no particular order and is obviously not exhaustive.

Ver: in my post yesterday I complained about people who only make “general theory of mafia” posts. That complaint referred to you and Ace in particular: smart players who simply stated they should be trusted based on past games and that they are awesome mafia catchers, yet do not make any serious attempt to help in this particular game. The many half-truths Ver had posted puzzled me. Then came Ver’s two posts on page 50. What joy: coherent and helpful thoughts on the current game, plus a good, ernest analysis on Empryean. Glad to finally see a better side of you, and agree with much of what you said. Empryean clearly matches clues + is somewhat shady with his posts.

Ace: partly covered above - extremely frustrating posts from a smart/veteran player. In the same breath Ace argues clues are unreliable and we need to rely on posting behavior, only to immediately try to stifle any forum discussion with the “if you point your finger at me based on clues you must be mafia” argument, and the even more nonsensical follow-up “I set a trap, anyone who points a finger at me falls right into it”. How does this attitude help generate behavioral clues if nobody is allowed to talk about the clues? Combine this with the (perhaps too) strong clues linking Ace to both Mafia families, and Ace looks very shady to me.

BloodyCobbler: too little history, but seems a bit too quiet and has a clue link. One to watch, but too little there for me to push the button at this time.

redtooth: recklessly aggressive, quickly pointing fingers and pushing very hard for his election. Many of his arguments are not as strong as he seems to think/make them out, and his statement that “going with the town is spineless” makes me nervous if he is elected and acts on his own weird theories. That said, no clue link to him as far as I can tell, and the fact that he is putting himself out there with such abandon means he is most likely green/blue.

L: similar to redtooth in his willingness to point fingers at people, but much less aggressive in his campaign. He is one to watch for the future to be sure, but right now I would not pull the trigger on lynching him if I had that power.

Chezinu: if he is town purposely spamming it is very annoying, we’re already over 50 pages on day one. If he is red he is doing a good job I guess. In the end I don’t care, I would not mind seeing him gone, but he is not a top priority target I suppose. If I had to guess I would think this is exactly the reaction he is going for… so whatever.

Bill Murray: in my opinion he is perfectly consistent with his behavior from game XVI, where he played very sloppy. He was a freaking DT, telling random people his role and how his clue-check turned, asking for medic protection on the forum and in private messages, and coming up with crazy theories he thought were golden. Nothing new under the sun as far as I am concerned so I doubt he is red.

DoctorH: I cannot tell if this is mafia XVI 2.0 or him playing town. I am puzzled as to why he is going after Bill so aggressively. DrH was red in game XVI, yet Bill fucking confided in him through PMs that he was a DT and that I was clue-checked green. How can DrH not know/ignore the fact that Bill always makes mistakes galore? This makes DrH fishy to me, but in the end I am not yet ready to pull the trigger.

Zato-1: shady posting behavior already covered by others and clue link to dreamflower’s killer. He is on the shortlist.

Parting thoughts

Last game convinced me that, thanks to the "no DT check" rule, I can never trust an elected official, even when they helped catch many mafiosi. This will be even more of an issue this time around, since mafia officials DO want to lynch/catch other mafia.

Much as I like Ver’s recent posts, I therefore do not want him elected, but would instead put him on the “DT check shortlist” - he can be far more useful from that role. Per my analysis above, I will withdraw my vote for DrH - I just don’t get his very aggressive stance on Bill Murray. As things stand, I will probably vote for redtooth or L, hoping to get both of them elected. Bill Murray could be a 3rd choice, but given his past (and current?) blatant mistakes, I'd rather not go there.

I would also like to hear more from veteran players who remain very quiet. Zona, Scamp and BloodyCobbler come to mind.

In the meantime, as Ver said, the most useful thing we can do now is to try to advance the lit of suspects, and help DTs come up with people to role-check on night 1.
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
Ace
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States16096 Posts
February 15 2010 15:55 GMT
#1017
Can you explain how clues link me to both Mafia families?
Math me up, scumboi. - Acrofales
citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
February 15 2010 15:59 GMT
#1018
Ace - I already did - see my post on page 45.

I am not going to explain my post person by person. Read my post and make up your own minds. Think critically, at this point nobody can "demonstrate" anything beyond doubt.
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
meeple
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Canada10211 Posts
February 15 2010 16:03 GMT
#1019
citi.zen - If you agree that Empyrean matches the clues fairly well, why isn't he on your list?
citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
February 15 2010 16:05 GMT
#1020
He sure is! Right now he is in fact #1 on the list, followed by Ace and DrH by a reasonable margin. I thought that was obvious :-)
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
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