Mini Mafia 2 - Page 32
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Chezinu
United States7439 Posts
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Scamp
United States1086 Posts
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Chezinu
United States7439 Posts
From: Scamp [ Profile | Buddy ] Subject: Re: I don't know.. Date: 1/12/10 11:58 Works for me. My secret desires are now revealed in the thread, too! ----------------------------------------- Original Message: I didn't check either of them for just one sole reason. I'm going to wait for Qatol's post to understand why Chezinu chose his suspects! | ||
Chezinu
United States7439 Posts
On January 12 2010 11:58 Scamp wrote: Secretly I'm hoping he'll say: Scamp casually mentioned both of them in his posts, and that got me thinking along the same lines. Well, that depends...Are you going to play The Prism? | ||
Chezinu
United States7439 Posts
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Qatol
United States3165 Posts
I didn't really have enough time to actually play in this, so I treated it as a chance to work on my behavioral analysis abilities. You will notice that I stopped analyzing as hard about halfway through day 1, but by then I already had all of the mafia pinned, and Ver agreed with my analysis, so I was decently confident with my picks. I will also note that Ver got a lot of his reads through different logic from me. He spends a lot more time looking at posting history. Either way, we felt darn good about our reads when we got the same results from different logic. Many of my reads become redundant after a while, so I start skipping posts as I go along a bit. Please let me know if it is confusing which post I'm referring to. Also, I stop at the bottom of page 9 because around then I made a (correct) guess to Incognito about who the mafia were. Obviously, the stuff after that just served to give me more confidence about my picks, so I'm going to omit it. Also, this is just taking a long time. + Show Spoiler [Page 4] + L: My first impressions are that he is accusing players and basically trying to take a leadership position in the town. This, in my experience, is a town-oriented move because it is ridiculously hard to keep up the illusion of innocence with the spotlight on you. In addition, L is going out on a limb and accusing people. Again, mafia are afraid of painting people because they tend to draw attention for starting bandwagons. I'm almost positive L is innocent at this point. However, I'll watch him a bit longer to see if he keeps it up, just to be sure. Vivi: chiming-in post. I thought this was a bit suspicious because he doesn't really have much in the way of reasoning but the post tends to blend in. Judge's roleclaim: Again, he's taking the spotlight. I honestly don't care if he is medic or not at this point. He's putting the spotlight on himself while not actually asking for any sort of power from the town. I find it HIGHLY unlikely that the mafia would risk their godfather on a move like this. Any other sort of mafia wouldn't pull a move like this. Basically, I would keep an eye on him moving forward (he's in the spotlight now and will slip up eventually if he's mafia), but for the most part, just ignore him. Instead, I'm watching who decides to bandwagon on him. Judge's plan: I don't like his plan because I felt it wasted too much time. (At this point, I figured the town could only get away with 3 misses and the first day was almost certainly a miss. Missing another by getting Judge killed eliminates your leeway and I don't like that. The potential gain just isn't big enough.) RoL/ scamp: Nothing posts. A bit suspicious. Zato-1: Long posts defending Scamp/Vivi and attacking Chezinu. Probably town, but not enough to make a final conclusion. Mentally noting it for later. + Show Spoiler [Page 5] + Scamp: Folds after a light accusation - very suspicious. Ace: This post is totally out of character from what I expected from Ace. His last few games (not counting smurf which was weird, speed where he got a late start, or mafiya where he had a funky role), his posts have been things like: On October 21 2009 14:43 Ace wrote: *yawn* man it's that time again already? <---running for mayor <---going back to sleep [ On May 17 2009 02:25 Ace wrote: I was actually not doing anything because I was playing DOTA all night ![]() As for me, I'll announce my intention to be Mayor/Pardoner now. Besides the fact that I know I'm great at this game, know how to look at the big picture, and know how to read (^_^) let me just point out one more thing: I have the best SAVIOR sense out of anyone in the game. Easily. What this means is I can easily spot a bs bandwagon for an innocent player and follow the trail to mafia, or in other cases explain how a person is innocent or why they shouldn't die. In game 2 when the town wanted to lynch Ghar I professed he was most likely innocent - and he was. In the game where BC got the Village Idiot role and convinced people to lynch mikeymoo who was it that rose to his defense so strongly? me. Because I saw the true meaning behind the scenario. Remember last game? How I once again jumped to JeeJee's defense even though there was "evidence" and a big ass bandwagon against him? Yup, JeeJee was innocent too. How about that time in Tracil's game when I was a medic and saved NatsuTerran(the cop) on Day one with only 1 read of the game and no PMs? ^_^ See guys, I'm good at behavior analysis and seeing the game as one big puzzle. I don't jump to conclusions, I play with my head on straight, and I ALWAYS have a plan. Always. Oh yeah, and I'm usually persuasive. Right now the only candidate I think is right for the town is Mynock. Every game we've played we have been on the exact same page. He thinks just like I do and has an intuition for when there's bullshit afoot. However, Ver and BC would just as well get my vote if that were the only reason. So why then? Read his post: he is the only one that pointed out that the Mayor and Pardoner really are not that different.Whoever is running should be glad to get either so that once they are protected they can do some damage and not just sit around bulletproof. Both of those roles are powerful and the town needs them to win. With all that said, I'm hoping enough people vote for me. We all know how dangerous I can be in office to The Mafia. In this one, notice the difference in tone. He is angry at the people who got him lynched last game, but he doesn't have the "time to hunt mafia" attitude he had in the past few. When he's innocent, he knows that there is nothing the mafia can throw at him that will actually stick. He just doesn't have that confidence this game. Also notice that he isn't trying to take the spotlight. HIGHLY suspicious. Note for later that he calls out RoL, nemY, and vivi. Qatol: Blue like always L: continues to force discussion. He could let the thread stagnate, but he isn't letting it. Sure looks innocent to me. Ace: Gives an honest opinion. I think he would have posted like this regardless of role. He always jumps on roleclaimers. However, he still isn't trying to push into the spotlight. Scamp: FOrcing activity too. He also emphasizes that medics can protect themselves. This is a very major town read. Specifically, the mafia don't want to let the town know that this is a possibility just in case they aren't reading. Scamp looks pretty town to me at this point. Judge: Continues to sit in the spotlight, not actually asking the town to do anything. I like my read on him. L triple post: Continues to enjoy the limelight as well. I still like him for innocent. Mikeymoo: "confusion" post. Notice that this doesn't really contribute anything to the game. More on this later. Heavonearth: Seems confused by how the game started. However, his request that another medic cross-claim when there is at least a good possiblity that judge is not a medic (but is innocent) seems wrong to me. Generally, I expect the mafia to be more careful with their logic because you can get called on this kind of stuff and get in trouble. I'll look for how he reacts and assume he's innocent for now. nemY: Quickly jumps on the "lynch judge" bandwagon but again doesn't really add much in the way of content. His comment about rolechecks has been the case for several games now. I already had my eye on him and this post doesn't help him. + Show Spoiler [Page 6] + L: obviously working with Judge by now. They both seem innocent to me. Vivi: Another player I was looking at from Ace's post. This post is really a nothing post. He emphasizes inactivity just like Scamp and L have already done. I'm still looking hard at him. Zato: He sticks his neck out to join the 2 that I think are innocent. I'm hoping this will put him into the spotlight so I can make a decision about him. Mikeymoo: He's been pretty quiet this game so far. Again, this post doesn't contribute anything. Malongo: Decides to step up and accuse RoL. He also makes claims about the alignment of L and Judge. I liked this move because it triggered a lot of posting, which I will talk about shortly. + Show Spoiler [Page 7] + Ace: He continues on his "lynch all liars" movement. He will post like this regardless of role. (I see where he's coming from with it, though I believe he takes it a bit too far.) However, suspecting him based on this is a bad idea. The reason I mention this is because Ace works on undermining Zato's support of L and Judge, pushing him into the spotlight like I had hoped. Zato: His post is entirely with the logic I have been using. This post cleared up a lot of doubt for me. Probably innocent. His conversation with RoL a bit later (again using logic just like mine) completely clears him for me. RoL: Rant time, triggered by posts from Malongo and Ace. Amusingly, these rants basically clear him for me. Him raging at the town and not caring that he's in the spotlight pretty clearly tells me that he isn't afraid of looking like mafia. (He is quieter when mafia usually.) Additionally, I enjoyed his mouth plan. + Show Spoiler [Page 8] + nemY: Continues to dig at Judge. Judge continues to stand strong. I'm still looking at nemY as suspicious. Vivi: Finally takes a stand on something (Judge). Triggers a rant from Ace. I'm wondering if this is a ploy, but I still like nemY better than Vivi as mafia. + Show Spoiler [Page 9] + Chezinu: Just like Foolishness and 0cz3c, people just don't read his posts because he has a bad reputation in some peoples' minds. I've noticed that he's quiet, but he doesn't seem to be connected to the mafia. As mafia, I would expect them to try and make him post more so they can use the "not posting" as ammunition because so many people are actively pushing that this game. Ace: Minor quarrel with L. Mikeymoo: This post basically sealed the deal for me with him. I already mentioned that he was posting, but not really putting any content into his posts. He just asked some questions. Well, he continued to do that. He isn't really committing to any sort of position with regards to.... anything. Also he is VERY emphatic about his confusion. This is classic mafia play. Note where I am right now (bottom of page 9). I'm basically at the point where I have eliminated almost everyone from suspicion. Right now, I predict the mafia is Ace, Mikeymoo, and nemY with a possibility that Vivi is in there instead. At this point, I'm convinced that RoL, scamp, Zato, Judge, and L are innocent. Look at the players I haven't decided on yet (though I was leaning towards innocent on all of them): Malongo, Chezinu, and HeavOnEarth. Malongo dies pretty quickly after this and Chezinu flip flops a ton, actually making him less suspicious to me because he throws the spotlight upon himself and handles it. Also, he starts pushing for a lynch on a major suspect of mine: Mikeymoo. At the very least, I'll keep him alive based on that. When he DT claims, everything just fits. The best part about it is that if he ever gives the town someone who isn't mafia as "mafia," they kill him right away. If he's red, he is in a very tough position because he has become a town leader. HeavOnEarth didn't have to do much, but he cleared himself to me when he posted a list accusing the "less obvious" people I thought were mafia. I would have finally secured nemY over Vivi during the lynch of Mikeymoo. Specifically, the vote was tied 3-3 between Chezinu and Mikeymoo and then Vivi comes in and casts another vote for Mikeymoo. Right after that, nemY casts a totally random vote for Judge. I also loved Malongo's decision to just let himself die rather than trigger a no lynch day 1. The problem with the no lynch is that the town doesn't get any sort of direction with this. It triggers a day 1 all over again. Other things to note: Dreamflower was totally right about HeavOnEarth's post. The mafia list jumped out at me because 2 of those people were on my personal list. When he died right after that, it lent even more weight to the idea that nemY was more suspicious than vivi. I thought this game had too many blue roles. Additionally, there was WAY too much blue power. In particular, I think the Vigilante is the most powerful blue role when used properly. Yet it was placed with 2 other blue roles in the game? I was pretty shocked by that. EDIT: added spoilers to improve readability | ||
Qatol
United States3165 Posts
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Qatol
United States3165 Posts
On January 12 2010 11:59 Chezinu wrote: hehe, I gave up waiting. From: Scamp [ Profile | Buddy ] Subject: Re: I don't know.. Date: 1/12/10 11:58 Works for me. My secret desires are now revealed in the thread, too! ----------------------------------------- Original Message: I didn't check either of them for just one sole reason. I'm going to wait for Qatol's post to understand why Chezinu chose his suspects! Mmmm I'm not so sure Chezinu's process was exactly the same as mine. | ||
Chezinu
United States7439 Posts
On January 12 2010 13:03 Qatol wrote: Mmmm I'm not so sure Chezinu's process was exactly the same as mine. Yeah, I don't read the thread that much...I use pm's then glance over thread and look at the list of players. I don't think that much, hehe. edit: I also look at voting - that's where I make most of my decisions. | ||
Qatol
United States3165 Posts
On January 12 2010 13:21 Chezinu wrote: Yeah, I don't read the thread that much...I use pm's then glance over thread and look at the list of players. I don't think that much, hehe. edit: I also look at voting - that's where I make most of my decisions. Okay we at least have voting in common. There isn't much of that in this analysis because I got to this point before the voting closed, but I usually like to use it to get reads later in the game. | ||
HeavOnEarth
United States7087 Posts
On January 12 2010 12:58 Qatol wrote: There, post done. Hope it lived up to expectations. it was nice ^^ | ||
nemY
United States3119 Posts
On January 12 2010 05:10 L wrote: When did you try to accuse either mm or nemy, or when did they try to significantly play against you? nemY and you were united on the most important issue of the game as well; the issue of whether or lynch claimers. This should have been a huge portion of your strategy this game; there's no kp loss for sacrificing a member. Your main mistake, however, was trying to push for chez's lynch prior to mikey when we had a vig hit up. There was no logical basis for that. You know something though L? Even if I had been townie, I still would have pushed for Judge's death from the start. You guys can say I was in alliance with Ace all you want, but I tbh I tried hard to play this game from a townie's perspective and whether or not I was a townie, allowing ppl to role claim right off the start is just plain dumb. Especially when I am 99% sure Judge WAS NOT THE MEDIC Regardless, it was still fun;This game was definitely a change up from the previous mafia games I've played (think of the previous big games with lots of ppl I've played in) and I feel like I learned some things (in hindsight not picking out RoL as the true medic was pretty FAIL on our part), that will help me be a better mafia in the future ![]() | ||
RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
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L
Canada4732 Posts
On January 12 2010 16:22 nemY wrote: You know something though L? Even if I had been townie, I still would have pushed for Judge's death from the start. You guys can say I was in alliance with Ace all you want, but I tbh I tried hard to play this game from a townie's perspective and whether or not I was a townie, allowing ppl to role claim right off the start is just plain dumb. Especially when I am 99% sure Judge WAS NOT THE MEDIC Regardless, it was still fun;This game was definitely a change up from the previous mafia games I've played (think of the previous big games with lots of ppl I've played in) and I feel like I learned some things (in hindsight not picking out RoL as the true medic was pretty FAIL on our part), that will help me be a better mafia in the future ![]() Lynches aren't for killing people you don't like. They're for killing mafia. Unless you thought judge was mafia, there was no reason to hit him, much like there was no reason to hit chez prior to mikey. You guys are using a shorthand solution from arguments we've had in other formats to justify a very poor move. | ||
RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
Day 1 RC's are just really really fucking annoying. Especially with a GF. The plan Judge had was pretty simple, but he kept it a secret, used a role claim that was undoubtedly a lie and asked for a DT to check him. The DT had no reason to check him since GF was in the game, so it just kind of stalled the town for no reason at all. The other thing is any plan should remain simple. Simple plans that are easily understood benefit the town. Overly complex plans that hinge on too many things happening leave more room for error and make it so the mafia is able to mess with a plan more than should be possible. That's kind of about it. I think I need to do more behavioral analysis in games though when it comes to role claims and stuff and stop getting caught up so much on the move itself as how the person is acting. | ||
Ace
United States16096 Posts
On January 13 2010 01:10 L wrote: Lynches aren't for killing people you don't like. They're for killing mafia. Unless you thought judge was mafia, there was no reason to hit him, much like there was no reason to hit chez prior to mikey. You guys are using a shorthand solution from arguments we've had in other formats to justify a very poor move. Lynching Judge had nothing to do with not liking him, stop making that up. We know he was lying because Day 1 medic claims are almost always a lie or at the very least bad. From a town perspective it made sense to get rid of him. It's that simple. *nods @ Qatol's analysis: I tried to play a laid back, nonforceful role because people bitch and moan when I yell at them. Looking at this game they still bitch and moan though. Guess I just have that effect on people ^_^ *nods @ Dreamflower: yea I forgot to include HoE. I don't think anyone would have believed his post (yay I guessed right) partially because the tone it was posted with wasn't a confirmation but more of a hunch. | ||
Zato-1
Chile4253 Posts
![]() Very good analysis, I'll re-read it and pages 4-9 to see if I can learn a thing or two :p | ||
L
Canada4732 Posts
Day 1 RC's are just really really fucking annoying. Especially with a GF. No they aren't. If you aren't terrible, you'd have been able to figure out what judge was from his claim, which leads to reasons for not killing him. No one was confused besides you, because you were the medic. Again, go look at the vote list. Its you and the entire mafia team against pretty much every other voting townie. The ones that didn't vote for either option voted for mikey.Lynching Judge had nothing to do with not liking him, stop making that up. We know he was lying because Day 1 medic claims are almost always a lie or at the very least bad. From a town perspective it made sense to get rid of him. No, it didn't. The concept behind lynching liars is that they create confusion and disrupt the town's progress. In the current instance, the lie pretty much solidified all of the town into a rather transperant group and let us get reads on the majority of players.If we had something alternative, like a mayoral race to talk about day 1, sure you might be right. If we had someone claiming detective so that he could become mayor and therefore not be checkable (LIKE YOU DID) that would be fishy. If someone, however, is making a claim which doesn't benefit him to enact a plan wherein the claimee kills himself, its pretty fucking obvious that he's not mafia. The timing of the claim came nearly immediately, far before mafia is typically able to organize onto IRC or msn, and the claim had no benefit for mafia if it was tweaked a bit. So why would we kill him? You can say LaL all you want, but there's a GOAL to LaL. If that GOAL isn't satisfied, then it isn't useful. Frankly, I've found the rule far more useful as mafia to get you and like 3 other detectives killed on day 1 than to keep the town in working order. | ||
L
Canada4732 Posts
On January 13 2010 03:17 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: L lynches are also a means to verify information. The reason I wanted to lynch Judge was obviously because I knew he was lying and because it creates more confusion then leadership. I said Day 1 how if we don't kill him then he will be a nuisance later on. I like to think there are certain ways to do things that generally help the town and others that don't. I think lying is strait bad for the town, regardless of whether or not its for the greater good or not. When you lie you create distrust and chaos and cause the town to lose focus. This benefits mafia, no plan should involve lying. Day 1 RC's are just really really fucking annoying. Especially with a GF. The plan Judge had was pretty simple, but he kept it a secret, used a role claim that was undoubtedly a lie and asked for a DT to check him. The DT had no reason to check him since GF was in the game, so it just kind of stalled the town for no reason at all. The other thing is any plan should remain simple. Simple plans that are easily understood benefit the town. Overly complex plans that hinge on too many things happening leave more room for error and make it so the mafia is able to mess with a plan more than should be possible. That's kind of about it. I think I need to do more behavioral analysis in games though when it comes to role claims and stuff and stop getting caught up so much on the move itself as how the person is acting. You don't gain any additional information by killing someone who's asking to be killed. You can be excused because you were the medic and obviously went a bit batshit insane early game, but Ace is a strong enough player to see why we wouldn't kill someone like that on day 1. That expectation of Ace is why a bunch of us were talking behind the scenes about killing him from midway through day 1. | ||
nemY
United States3119 Posts
On January 13 2010 01:10 L wrote: Lynches aren't for killing people you don't like. They're for killing mafia. Unless you thought judge was mafia, there was no reason to hit him, much like there was no reason to hit chez prior to mikey. You guys are using a shorthand solution from arguments we've had in other formats to justify a very poor move. Uhhh, where did I say he was someone I didn't like? I said his play (from a townie's perspective) was dumb. Everyone knew he wasn't medic. Trying to disregard that I was mafia and think like a townie (which is somewhat difficult when you have so much inside information obv) I put Judge from a Vet at best to GF at worst, hence why I pushed for his lynch. Regardless of my role next game, if someone role claims Day 1, I'm going to push for their lynch again. | ||
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