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On March 07 2026 00:08 Billyboy wrote: I have this thought that their plan was get Venezuelan oil, and since they have so much, can easily replace Irans. And wambam ezpz US wins.
Then because no one smart is left, or willing to say no. There was no one to explain that the production ability is not there. Or that it wouldn’t just be Irans oil at risk in the ME. Or that the straight would get closed and so on and so on.
Seems to be how this admin makes decisions, what sounds cool to immature people. Put no thought or planning in and then act and blame Biden for whatever doesn’t work.
First of all, Trump wants to end the conflict in Iran as soon as possible because it's really bad for him long term. When this happens the Iranian oil supply will resume as usual. Second of all, Venezuelan oil has been deemed unprofitable for the US companies. The region is unstable and heavy oil is hard to extract. You'd need major investments before you'd see any real returns in a decade or so. Venezuela has enough oil extraction to keep local gas prices extremely low to make the population happy but in terms of exports they're not even top 20 despite being #1 in how many oil reserves they have. They're exporting half of what Iran is and 15000 (yes, 15k) times less oil than Saudi Arabia.
The longer the bombing continues the longer it will take for things to resume as normal.
Strait of Hormuz doesn't affect only Iranian oil, it affects 20 % of the world production, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates all ship via it, not all of their oil, but a significant amount, as long as the war goes on, this will be held back and disrupted. Remember Evergreen? Remember how much that fucked with the world Economy? Well, this is like that but much, much worse.
Iran is also targeting refineries, both oil and gas, they are hitting anything they can that will disrupt the supply, and they can do that for months, this is a huge disruption to the supply for Europe and the world at large as well.
On March 07 2026 03:40 Jankisa wrote: The longer the bombing continues the longer it will take for things to resume as normal.
Strait of Hormuz doesn't affect only Iranian oil, it affects 20 % of the world production, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates all ship via it, not all of their oil, but a significant amount, as long as the war goes on, this will be held back and disrupted. Remember Evergreen? Remember how much that fucked with the world Economy? Well, this is like that but much, much worse.
Iran is also targeting refineries, both oil and gas, they are hitting anything they can that will disrupt the supply, and they can do that for months, this is a huge disruption to the supply for Europe and the world at large as well.
They hit some data centers that had Amazon acting wonky for a day. If they could take out enough data centers to disrupt streaming and shopping services for a week or so, they could probably trigger a civil war in the US.
Well, those DCs and associated issues were all located in the EMEA region, if they want to distrupt shopping and web services in the US, they'd have to knock out 3-4 big ones in USA across at least 2 availability zones and regions.
That is very doubtful.
I do think, however, that aiming at those is one of the more savvy things they did, they know that if anyone can reign Trump in, it's the tech oligarchs + the people who finance a lot of this shit, so going after Qatari, SA, UAE + American business interests is a very good move.
On March 06 2026 23:13 Jankisa wrote: But I thought that Trump said strait of Hormuz is open, Iran has no navy, they sunk all of it and also they can't threten anyone...
It's so fucking stupid, Trump and Nethyanahu get a boner to go bomb brown people in ME and Ukrainians are paying for it with their lives, Putin is rubbing his hands as the oil ticks up, Europeans are looking in horror as the gas prices explode and are bracing for yet another refugee crisis coming our way...
Refugee crisis? From where? Iranians coming to Europe?
Sure. Many Syrians managed the trip and Iran has much bigger population potential. Obviously, Iran's neighbors will be hit even harder, but pollical impacts might be bigger in Europe.
On March 06 2026 23:13 Jankisa wrote: But I thought that Trump said strait of Hormuz is open, Iran has no navy, they sunk all of it and also they can't threten anyone...
It's so fucking stupid, Trump and Nethyanahu get a boner to go bomb brown people in ME and Ukrainians are paying for it with their lives, Putin is rubbing his hands as the oil ticks up, Europeans are looking in horror as the gas prices explode and are bracing for yet another refugee crisis coming our way...
Refugee crisis? From where? Iranians coming to Europe?
Sure. Many Syrians managed the trip and Iran has much bigger population potential. Obviously, Iran's neighbors will be hit even harder, but pollical impacts might be bigger in Europe.
Extremely uncertain we will take any meaningful amount of refuges this time.
On March 06 2026 23:13 Jankisa wrote: But I thought that Trump said strait of Hormuz is open, Iran has no navy, they sunk all of it and also they can't threten anyone...
It's so fucking stupid, Trump and Nethyanahu get a boner to go bomb brown people in ME and Ukrainians are paying for it with their lives, Putin is rubbing his hands as the oil ticks up, Europeans are looking in horror as the gas prices explode and are bracing for yet another refugee crisis coming our way...
Refugee crisis? From where? Iranians coming to Europe?
Sure. Many Syrians managed the trip and Iran has much bigger population potential. Obviously, Iran's neighbors will be hit even harder, but pollical impacts might be bigger in Europe.
Extremely uncertain we will take any meaningful amount of refuges this time.
Doesn't it depend on Turkey? If they block them or put them on trains at the eastern border to the western border?
On March 08 2026 03:33 Sent. wrote: Italy, Hungary and the Balkan states should be able and willing to stop the migration at their borders this time.
In which case we still get a refugee crisis, just in the form of a humanitarian crisis at our borders. It is very hard to stop desperate people fleeing a war.
You don't want to rely on stopping people at the border. You would have to start sinking boats of innocent people.
What you do is you state a 0 refuge policy from Iran. Then you "lease" a big piece of land somewhere Iranian refuges would absolutely not want to go. Like Libya. Build a huge refuge camp there. Anyone fleeing to Europe gets picked up, and through temporary detention put on a ship and placed in that refuge camp. Of course you should also help with camps in neighbouring countries. So it's either stay in the place you are at, or pay a shitload of money and take the risk to get to Europe and get shipped to same type of place but in Libya. Probably would only have to transfer some tens of thousands of people before net migration turns to 0.
So is China just going to replace the 10% of it's oil imports it got from Iran with more oil from Russia? With oil still skyrocketing.Another huge win for Russia.
On March 08 2026 07:56 KwarK wrote: People have thought of making modern prison colonies for asylum seekers before. It’s not a good idea.
Australia has done it for a long time successfully.
It's not a good idea but it's kind of: "Offshore refugee camps is the worst kind of immigration control, except for all the other types of immigration control that has been tried."
Seems like over the past month or so the tables have turned, at least a bit.
Ukraine has reversed the trend and continues to liberate, albeit at a slow pace, parts of it's territory.
To me, it looks like Russians entered into an operational pause in order to consolidate their forces and get going with a spring/summer offensive again.
The counterattacks Ukraine did all seem relatively small in scale and not too intensive, basically probing, finding holes in Russian defenses and driving them back.
All the while Putin is trying to get Trump to buy into his lies about Ukrainians being on the back foot hoping Trump will try to force them to make territorial concessions.
In any case, short term things seem to be looking up for Ukraine, unfortunately, given what is happening with oil prices it seems like Trump threw his old buddy Vlad a lifeline so the Russian economy doesn't completely implode, how convenient.
I'd guess that Russia is struggling to maintain positions after loosing their Starlinks. Al least, the turn coincides in time with that event. Ucranians having way better battlefield information and easier/faster coordination has to make a huge difference.
On March 12 2026 03:08 Xamo wrote: I'd guess that Russia is struggling to maintain positions after loosing their Starlinks. Al least, the turn coincides in time with that event. Ucranians having way better battlefield information and easier/faster coordination has to make a huge difference.
Did they re-enable telegram for military use? Was also at the same time.
On March 12 2026 03:08 Xamo wrote: I'd guess that Russia is struggling to maintain positions after loosing their Starlinks. Al least, the turn coincides in time with that event. Ucranians having way better battlefield information and easier/faster coordination has to make a huge difference.
Did they re-enable telegram for military use? Was also at the same time.
Things continued to escalate quickly. On Feb. 21, the FSB announced that using Telegram on the frontline in Ukraine created “a threat to soldiers’ lives.” Then on Feb. 24, newspapers Rossiyskaya Gazeta and Komsomolskaya Pravda simultaneously reported that “based on FSB files” an investigation had been opened into Durov on charges of aiding terrorism — a crime which carries up to life in prison. Durov later appeared to confirm a case had been opened, calling Russia a “sad spectacle of a state afraid of its own people.”
Seems like it's basically a criminal offense for soldiers to be using it, even if they can get on to it via VPN's and they are gradually shutting it down for the rest of the country with April 1st being the final shutdown date.
I wonder if Ukrainians can keep advancing. According to the reports within a month they've liberated more territory than Russia has captured, which is a first. It does sound great but we have to remember the scale of this war and it means those are rather paltry numbers that could be chalked up to statistical error almost. I do hope they can keep it up though and push back the invaders. Maybe this would finally be a breaking point where Putin is forced to say enough is enough and withdraw.
On March 12 2026 18:17 Manit0u wrote: <link to scum journalism>
I wonder if Ukrainians can keep advancing. According to the reports within a month they've liberated more territory than Russia has captured, which is a first. It does sound great but we have to remember the scale of this war and it means those are rather paltry numbers that could be chalked up to statistical error almost. I do hope they can keep it up though and push back the invaders. Maybe this would finally be a breaking point where Putin is forced to say enough is enough and withdraw.
EPT
