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On March 07 2026 00:08 Billyboy wrote:
I have this thought that their plan was get Venezuelan oil, and since they have so much, can easily replace Irans. And wambam ezpz US wins.
Then because no one smart is left, or willing to say no. There was no one to explain that the production ability is not there. Or that it wouldn’t just be Irans oil at risk in the ME. Or that the straight would get closed and so on and so on.
Seems to be how this admin makes decisions, what sounds cool to immature people. Put no thought or planning in and then act and blame Biden for whatever doesn’t work.
First of all, Trump wants to end the conflict in Iran as soon as possible because it's really bad for him long term. When this happens the Iranian oil supply will resume as usual.
Second of all, Venezuelan oil has been deemed unprofitable for the US companies. The region is unstable and heavy oil is hard to extract. You'd need major investments before you'd see any real returns in a decade or so. Venezuela has enough oil extraction to keep local gas prices extremely low to make the population happy but in terms of exports they're not even top 20 despite being #1 in how many oil reserves they have. They're exporting half of what Iran is and 15000 (yes, 15k) times less oil than Saudi Arabia.
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The longer the bombing continues the longer it will take for things to resume as normal.
Strait of Hormuz doesn't affect only Iranian oil, it affects 20 % of the world production, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates all ship via it, not all of their oil, but a significant amount, as long as the war goes on, this will be held back and disrupted. Remember Evergreen? Remember how much that fucked with the world Economy? Well, this is like that but much, much worse.
Iran is also targeting refineries, both oil and gas, they are hitting anything they can that will disrupt the supply, and they can do that for months, this is a huge disruption to the supply for Europe and the world at large as well.
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On March 07 2026 03:40 Jankisa wrote:
The longer the bombing continues the longer it will take for things to resume as normal.
Strait of Hormuz doesn't affect only Iranian oil, it affects 20 % of the world production, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates all ship via it, not all of their oil, but a significant amount, as long as the war goes on, this will be held back and disrupted. Remember Evergreen? Remember how much that fucked with the world Economy? Well, this is like that but much, much worse.
Iran is also targeting refineries, both oil and gas, they are hitting anything they can that will disrupt the supply, and they can do that for months, this is a huge disruption to the supply for Europe and the world at large as well.
They hit some data centers that had Amazon acting wonky for a day. If they could take out enough data centers to disrupt streaming and shopping services for a week or so, they could probably trigger a civil war in the US.
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Well, those DCs and associated issues were all located in the EMEA region, if they want to distrupt shopping and web services in the US, they'd have to knock out 3-4 big ones in USA across at least 2 availability zones and regions.
That is very doubtful.
I do think, however, that aiming at those is one of the more savvy things they did, they know that if anyone can reign Trump in, it's the tech oligarchs + the people who finance a lot of this shit, so going after Qatari, SA, UAE + American business interests is a very good move.
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On March 07 2026 00:51 warding wrote:Show nested quote +On March 06 2026 23:13 Jankisa wrote:
But I thought that Trump said strait of Hormuz is open, Iran has no navy, they sunk all of it and also they can't threten anyone...
It's so fucking stupid, Trump and Nethyanahu get a boner to go bomb brown people in ME and Ukrainians are paying for it with their lives, Putin is rubbing his hands as the oil ticks up, Europeans are looking in horror as the gas prices explode and are bracing for yet another refugee crisis coming our way... Refugee crisis? From where? Iranians coming to Europe?
Sure.
Many Syrians managed the trip and Iran has much bigger population potential.
Obviously, Iran's neighbors will be hit even harder, but pollical impacts might be bigger in Europe.
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On March 07 2026 07:22 pmp10 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 07 2026 00:51 warding wrote:On March 06 2026 23:13 Jankisa wrote:
But I thought that Trump said strait of Hormuz is open, Iran has no navy, they sunk all of it and also they can't threten anyone...
It's so fucking stupid, Trump and Nethyanahu get a boner to go bomb brown people in ME and Ukrainians are paying for it with their lives, Putin is rubbing his hands as the oil ticks up, Europeans are looking in horror as the gas prices explode and are bracing for yet another refugee crisis coming our way... Refugee crisis? From where? Iranians coming to Europe? Sure. Many Syrians managed the trip and Iran has much bigger population potential. Obviously, Iran's neighbors will be hit even harder, but pollical impacts might be bigger in Europe.
Extremely uncertain we will take any meaningful amount of refuges this time.
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EPT
