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Seems Russia is upping its threat profile against NATO countries. Estonia with fighter after Poland the last time. The previous GPS jamming of the Baltic by "somebody" in Russia keeps going and slowly becoming more sophisticated.
Honestly think the Turkish route of shooting down fighters/bombers that enter NATO airspace seems viable. Just send out a warning and then start doing it. No consequences and costly military responses will decrease.
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I agree, we should start shooting them down. We should also start shooting drones and missiles over Ukraine, as the Polish MFA is saying. Those fuckers only understand one thing.
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Finland955 Posts
Russian jets have "tested" Finnish air space for years and years even before Finland joined NATO, not sure how common that's been in Estonia, if at all. If the airspace violation is especially egregious, the Russian ambassador in Finland is called and there's a few mea culpas, and the matter is settled.
There's plausible deniability, as there always is. Maybe the jets were heading to Kaliningrad, and there's really a very narrow corridor in the Gulf of Finland that they can use. Maybe the piss poor GPS equipment the Russian pilots are using just caused them to accidentally veer into NATO airspace.
So what's the correct response here? Poland and the Nordics are not Turkey.
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On September 21 2025 07:58 hexhaven wrote:
Russian jets have "tested" Finnish air space for years and years even before Finland joined NATO, not sure how common that's been in Estonia, if at all. If the airspace violation is especially egregious, the Russian ambassador in Finland is called and there's a few mea culpas, and the matter is settled.
There's plausible deniability, as there always is. Maybe the jets were heading to Kaliningrad, and there's really a very narrow corridor in the Gulf of Finland that they can use. Maybe the piss poor GPS equipment the Russian pilots are using just caused them to accidentally veer into NATO airspace.
So what's the correct response here? Poland and the Nordics are not Turkey.
NATO is directly and mostly indirectly supporting Ukraine against the Russian war of aggression still ongoing. If Poland allows drones and even aircraft through that means Ukraine has to stretch their air defenses more. That is more expensive than taking a strong stance in Poland on closed air space for NATO as a whole.
Estonia is a bit different since it doesn't impact the Ukraine war. But the Ukraine war impacts this. Relations with Russia are not nice and normal right now. It is another lever that could be pushed to put pressure on Russia politically. Do the same over Finland and in Swedish air space as well. I personally want us to use more levers against Russia than we are currently doing.
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On September 21 2025 07:58 hexhaven wrote:
Russian jets have "tested" Finnish air space for years and years even before Finland joined NATO, not sure how common that's been in Estonia, if at all. If the airspace violation is especially egregious, the Russian ambassador in Finland is called and there's a few mea culpas, and the matter is settled.
There's plausible deniability, as there always is. Maybe the jets were heading to Kaliningrad, and there's really a very narrow corridor in the Gulf of Finland that they can use. Maybe the piss poor GPS equipment the Russian pilots are using just caused them to accidentally veer into NATO airspace.
So what's the correct response here? Poland and the Nordics are not Turkey.
Russia have tested every airspace for decades, that is true. However there's a slight difference in that they weren't at war during those times. Now they're not exactly 100% at war with neither Finland or Estonia, but they are at war with their neighbour and close ally. It also is incredibly obvious that these weren't accidents, seeing as the fighters entering Estonia ignored instructions from the interdiction elements. And the drones going into Finland kept going quite far inland, beyond anything reasonable for accidents.
At this point, the reasonable and correct response is doing a Turkey
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I don't know who might need to hear this but... Please don't expect the US to respond to Article 5 if Estonia is attacked.
I know that's bad. Just plan around it please.
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The polish have been planning on that for a while. between them and the fins I'd expect them in st petersburg by the end of the month.
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On September 23 2025 03:17 Sermokala wrote:
The polish have been planning on that for a while. between them and the fins I'd expect them in st petersburg by the end of the month.
I'm curious what the Poles and Finns around here think about that, but it sounds good (or possibly apocalyptic, depending on what nuclear scenario one suspects).
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On September 23 2025 03:27 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On September 23 2025 03:17 Sermokala wrote:
The polish have been planning on that for a while. between them and the fins I'd expect them in st petersburg by the end of the month. I'm curious what the Poles and Finns around here think about that, but it sounds good (or possibly apocalyptic, depending on what nuclear scenario one suspects).
I am pretty sure that St Petersburg being invaded is beyond any red line anybody can expect Russia to have. Kaliningrad might not be, though. Especially if they open up with invading Estonia. Which in and of itself is such a wild what-if that really all bets are off.
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I'm not expecting anything. We wouldn't dedicate over 4% of our GDP to military spending if we believed that just being in NATO is enough. Better safe than sorry.
I don't understand the Petersburg bit. Sure, I'd like to see it burn but I don't want to see my dudes die trying to take it. It's not worth it even if we pretend nukes don't exist.
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On September 23 2025 03:27 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On September 23 2025 03:17 Sermokala wrote:
The polish have been planning on that for a while. between them and the fins I'd expect them in st petersburg by the end of the month. I'm curious what the Poles and Finns around here think about that, but it sounds good (or possibly apocalyptic, depending on what nuclear scenario one suspects).
I fully support decision and think we should go further. We should start shooting down missiles and drones over Ukraine. The EU should prioritize cheap interception methods and mass produce them ASAP.
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I very much doubt there's going to be any invasion any time soon. That would be a huge leap up the escalation ladder, and while Moscow loves sabre rattling, in this case nukes would very much be on the table.
However there are steps you can take before marching into Moscow. Setting up a no-fly zone over Ukraine for instance, something that's been discussed for soon to be 4 years now. And as we've discussed earlier, sending in troops to free up back-line units and manpower in Ukraine. Putin can whine all he wants, but the second he accepted North Korean soldiers into this war, this option was put on the table. Neither of these would realistically create much of a backlash with the populous, and would be huge for the efforts of freeing Ukraine.
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Did something happen today?
Why are people discussing invasion into Estonia?
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On September 23 2025 05:07 ZeroByte13 wrote:
Did something happen today?
Why are people discussing invasion into Estonia?
Well, RU fighter jets violated their air space 4 times recently. The latest one was 3 MIGs which remained in their air space for 12 minutes.
It's mostly posturing and probably checking reaction times etc. but it's far from an invasion yet.
What is more worrying is that US is backing out of any military aid in the Baltics and European countries bordering Russia.
https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/29977459375897
It makes you wonder how deep in the Russian pockets is Trump actually.
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Trump really puts the "dic" in "dictator".
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On September 23 2025 02:25 GreenHorizons wrote:
I don't know who might need to hear this but... Please don't expect the US to respond to Article 5 if Estonia is attacked.
I know that's bad. Just plan around it please.
And then I read the username... Damn there can only be one so
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Who could have foreseen this incredibly unpredictable outcome?!
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EPT
they really need to invest into some mental health care for CEOs in Russia. Never have the world seen such an epidemic of chronically depressed rich people taking their own lives. Thoughts and prayers
