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On September 27 2025 02:36 maybenexttime wrote:
I think people are misinterpreting his recent post. He's effectively washing his hands of any responsibility and wishing good luck to both sides. He's likely positioning himself to blame Europe for the lack of progress. That's not more pro-Ukraine.
He's also not putting pressure on the EU regarding sanctions. He's looking for an excuse to lift sanctions by accusing the EU of buying Russian gas/oil, when in reality the biggest offenders are his buddies like Orban and Fico.
Lifting sanctions would help Russia a lot. Would make it easier for them to build high tech weapons in larger amounts. Now they have to pay 2-3x times the price and ship via third parties in unstable supply chains. It would also have a large signal value which would make it seem Russia is in a better position than they are.
Right now Russia is losing the war based on its stated war goals and the lack of progress on them. If their goals was the borders as they are now they would have won and could close down the war happily.
On September 27 2025 02:18 RvB wrote:Show nested quote +On September 25 2025 15:30 zatic wrote:
Trump also just parrots whatever the person he talked to last told him. Just wait for another call with Putin and him berating Zelensky for starting a war against Russia again. That's too much of a simplification. There are subjects where he changes positions. There are also subjects where he does not such as tariffs. Prior to his second term there was no way to know how his position on Ukraine would develop. He has also consistently become more pro Ukraine over months despite talking to Putin. It started from him repeating only Russian talking points with Russia "holding all the cards" and a shouting match with Zelensky in the White House to a ceasefire where both parties had to swap land to his latest tweet. Trump is never going to give Ukraine aid packages like Biden. He's too transactional for that. Still, at least he's selling US weapons and putting some pressure on the EU on sanctions (e.g. buying Russian oil till 2027) . The counterfactual would've been Trump completely abandoning Ukraine, forcing them into an unfavorable ceasefire.
Trump reverting sanctions and shutting down starlink would have a large impact on the war outcome. Him abandoning Ukraine but keeping sanctions up would likely not, we are past that stage of the war.
The current stance of keeping status quo and allowing buying of weapons isn't an ideal outcome but not horrible either.
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Lithuania just cut power to Kaliningrad. As the Baltics cut themselves off of the Russian energy grid and joined the EU grid they physically dismantled power lines leading to Russia and Kaliningrad. So now Kaliningrad is basically an island. There are some power plants there but I don't think they're self-sufficient energy-wise. And winter is coming.
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I predict by this time next year, fuel shortages across Russia will be so severe that tankies will be sharing pictures of frozen Russian civilians and condemning the West for committing genocide against them.
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Ew, I wasn't paying attention to the link and now rumble is in my internet history.
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On October 01 2025 19:08 Gahlo wrote:
Ew, I wasn't paying attention to the link and now rumble is in my internet history.
Also Kim Iversen jumpscare
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What were her predictions and where's the evidence? From a quick google search she seems like your standard Kremlin shill.
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This Zelenskyy is really all over the place.
In all seriousness, despite what our friendly Russian shills like to pretend to say, it seemed pretty obvious from the get-go that the side that had the most to gain from blowing up NS was Ukraine and they did it, it's good to see that despite these countries overall being supportive of Ukraine they still spend time and resources to prosecute people behind these kind of sabotage operations, no matter who is executing them.
I wish they made more arrests for shit like the Polish mall burning, drones in Denmark and many other "hybrid warfare" situations that Russia has been running all over the EU.
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United States44386 Posts
On October 02 2025 01:27 Jankisa wrote:This Zelenskyy is really all over the place. In all seriousness, despite what our friendly Russian shills like to pretend to say, it seemed pretty obvious from the get-go that the side that had the most to gain from blowing up NS was Ukraine and they did it, it's good to see that despite these countries overall being supportive of Ukraine they still spend time and resources to prosecute people behind these kind of sabotage operations, no matter who is executing them. I wish they made more arrests for shit like the Polish mall burning, drones in Denmark and many other "hybrid warfare" situations that Russia has been running all over the EU.
Ukraine is covered with pipelines moving Russian hydrocarbons that they have not made any attempt to disable.
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On October 02 2025 01:43 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On October 02 2025 01:27 Jankisa wrote:This Zelenskyy is really all over the place. In all seriousness, despite what our friendly Russian shills like to pretend to say, it seemed pretty obvious from the get-go that the side that had the most to gain from blowing up NS was Ukraine and they did it, it's good to see that despite these countries overall being supportive of Ukraine they still spend time and resources to prosecute people behind these kind of sabotage operations, no matter who is executing them. I wish they made more arrests for shit like the Polish mall burning, drones in Denmark and many other "hybrid warfare" situations that Russia has been running all over the EU. Ukraine is covered with pipelines moving Russian hydrocarbons that they have not made any attempt to disable.
How does that exactly relate to NS pipes being blown up?
![[image loading]](https://www.bruegel.org/sites/default/files/styles/wysiwyg_full_image_desktop/public/2024-10/map_ukraine%20gas%20transit%201.png.webp?itok=VOqap3CI)
I wouldn't really call this covered.
In any case, these pipelines are important enough strategically for Ukraine to not blow them up, otherwise they'd already do it.
The NS ones were there, they didn't provide anything other then the possibility of Germany and other countries to perhaps think going back to Russian gas and not sticking to the plans to completely phase it out, so, according to, at this point basically everyone Ukrainians blew them up to take that possibility out.
If you disagree, feel free to say why, because I really don't get what your point is form the one liner.
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On October 02 2025 01:27 Jankisa wrote:This Zelenskyy is really all over the place. In all seriousness, despite what our friendly Russian shills like to pretend to say, it seemed pretty obvious from the get-go that the side that had the most to gain from blowing up NS was Ukraine and they did it, it's good to see that despite these countries overall being supportive of Ukraine they still spend time and resources to prosecute people behind these kind of sabotage operations, no matter who is executing them. I wish they made more arrests for shit like the Polish mall burning, drones in Denmark and many other "hybrid warfare" situations that Russia has been running all over the EU.
Most people suspected of involvement in those were arrested. Some were identified but had fled the EU.
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United States44386 Posts
Not literally covered, no. But that clearly isn't what was meant.
What I'm saying is if the Ukrainian government wanted to stop Russian gas making it to Europe then there are far easier ways to do it than diving in the sea. If we imagine a Ukrainian government that doesn't want gas making it to Europe then in all instances we're imagining them declaring force majeure over those pipelines and shutting them.
The strategic importance is overstated. Foreign support already makes up a large part of the Ukrainian budget, pipeline fees don't change that. Russia targeting empty pipelines is a good thing, not a bad thing. Pipelines are extremely cheap and easy to repair compared to a lot of the other things Russia could target. Austria may whine about their supply being cut but it was cut because their supplier started invading places, it's not Ukraine's fault. Sucks to suck, maybe have a more reliable supplier in future. Not only is it possible for Ukraine to shut down those pipelines, it is trivial. They haven't done so because they value their EU diplomatic relationships, even with minor and functionally hostile nations like Hungary.
That would make a Ukrainian government sponsored attack on Nordstream contrary to what we can extrapolate of their policy. If Hungary is too much of a diplomatic EU heavy hitter and too much of a key supporter to cut off then where does that leave Germany? The implication is that Nordstream was targeted for different reasons by different actors. And it's not like there's any shortage of Ukrainians who have taken Russian money for things.
That's not to say that it couldn't have been a patriotic Ukrainian doing it without state support. Just that it'd be weird for a patriotic Ukrainian who wants to cut off EU countries from Russian gas to pick Nordstream as their starting point. It's not the easiest one to get to and Russia had already cut it off themselves.
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Well, my original comment did not specify "Ukrainian state involvement", rather that the side that had the most to gain from it was Ukraine.
In general, my comment was more aimed at the people who like to bring shit up and pretend like "Russia blew up NS" is what the Western media and commentators were trying to push, when it's clearly not so.
The article I linked goes into there reasons why Ukraine elected not to blow up the pipelines inside it's territory, and it's not just the money.
In fact, very recently Ukraine targeted this infrastructure feeding gas to Hungary and Slovakia, which, again, I fully support because fuck Fico and fuck Orban.
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United States44386 Posts
Russians did have a lot to gain. The Russian state had forced Gazprom to suspend deliveries in breach of their contract. They made up a mechanical issue to explain the cutoff but it was a warning shot to Germany, proof that Russia could cut them off. The problem is that there were extremely high penalties in the contract with Germany for pulling that kind of shit and the mechanical issue excuse wasn’t going to last long, once Germany failed to immediately back down the “mechanical issue” cutoff became unsustainable. It would either need to be formalized as Russian state orders or the flow would need to resume.
Someone found a third option.
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Zurich15366 Posts
KwarK is really going to die on the hill of weird mental acrobatics that despite all evidence, all perpetrators identified, some of the arrested, intelligence from multiple Western agencies, it was Russia over some contractual legalty. .
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I wouldn't go as far as to say that there is a clear picture of this. Over here (in Poland) NOONE is trusting germans on this. The issue is political, as always was with Nordstream. They have to put someone in jail, doesnt matter if they are guilty or not.
I wonder where this aresst of this supposed Ukrainian perpetrator in Poland goes. For now he is arrested for seven days.
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it's messy.
my earlier instincts said it was US/UKR that blew up NS. but who actually knows and can say for certain with intelligence operations and nation states wanting to save face in light of extremely delicate political matters. and war.
the courts can only work with information given and available to them, which works well enough in everyday affairs for the most part. intelligence work and hybrid warfare is anything but ordinary.
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EPT
