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United States43059 Posts
On October 02 2025 15:26 zatic wrote:
KwarK is really going to die on the hill of weird mental acrobatics that despite all evidence, all perpetrators identified, some of the arrested, intelligence from multiple Western agencies, it was Russia over some contractual legalty. .
I’m less informed on it than you probably. Did they tell us why they did it? I’m on the hill of Russia being the party that had already taken the step of cutting off the gas supply in Nordstream and Ukraine being the party that has kept gas flowing for the last few years. I’ve been there for a few years and I’ve not been keeping track of new developments, I’ll leave it if the evidence is right, I just haven’t been checking for new evidence. This isn’t a hill that I care enough about to stay informed on.
Essentially my stance is that if it wasn't Russia they did an excellent job of framing themselves for the crime.
What we all agree on:
1. Russia told Germany that if Germany didn't change their stance then the Nordstream gas would be cut off.
2. Germany didn't change their stance.
3. Russia cut the gas off in the short term citing mechanical issues.
4. Russia again told Germany that the gas supply would only resume if Germany changed their stance.
5. Germany still didn't change their stance.
6. The mechanical issue cutoff excuse started to wear thin, to keep Germany cut off a more permanent solution by Russia would be required.
7. "Someone", likely a state actor, did a more permanent solution.
If it turns out that 7 was Ukrainian intelligence then I won't cry about that. Their national existence was at stake and Germany shouldn't have been buying Russian gas anyway, the forced resolution only prevented Germany from collaborating which they shouldn't and wouldn't have done anyway. It's justifiable. If anything I'd find it being Ukraine funny because of how hard Russia set themselves up, it becomes a "sucks to suck" situation. Maybe don't keep threatening to set fire to a building if you don't want to be accused when it catches fire.
Either Russia did it in which I'm content to blame them or Russia kept threatening to do it and then got framed in which case it's funny to blame them.
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On October 02 2025 15:26 zatic wrote:
KwarK is really going to die on the hill of weird mental acrobatics that despite all evidence, all perpetrators identified, some of the arrested, intelligence from multiple Western agencies, it was Russia over some contractual legalty. .
Not much of weird mental acrobatic if I'm honest. Right now, there are no publicly known evidence that proves anything one way or another. I'm sure more will be brough to light in the coming months. Currently, all we can do is speculate
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On October 03 2025 00:14 Excludos wrote:Show nested quote +On October 02 2025 15:26 zatic wrote:
KwarK is really going to die on the hill of weird mental acrobatics that despite all evidence, all perpetrators identified, some of the arrested, intelligence from multiple Western agencies, it was Russia over some contractual legalty. . Not much of weird mental acrobatic if I'm honest. Right now, there are no publicly known evidence that proves anything one way or another. I'm sure more will be brough to light in the coming months. Currently, all we can do is speculate
My take is that even regardless of who's "proven" to be at fault, there's going to be a significant proportion of the population that just doesn't trust the result.
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On October 03 2025 02:07 Lmui wrote:Show nested quote +On October 03 2025 00:14 Excludos wrote:On October 02 2025 15:26 zatic wrote:
KwarK is really going to die on the hill of weird mental acrobatics that despite all evidence, all perpetrators identified, some of the arrested, intelligence from multiple Western agencies, it was Russia over some contractual legalty. . Not much of weird mental acrobatic if I'm honest. Right now, there are no publicly known evidence that proves anything one way or another. I'm sure more will be brough to light in the coming months. Currently, all we can do is speculate My take is that even regardless of who's "proven" to be at fault, there's going to be a significant proportion of the population that just doesn't trust the result.
That statement is true about just about everything these days.
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On October 02 2025 18:10 Silvanel wrote:
I wouldn't go as far as to say that there is a clear picture of this. Over here (in Poland) NOONE is trusting germans on this. The issue is political, as always was with Nordstream. They have to put someone in jail, doesnt matter if they are guilty or not.
There really is no need to trust Germany about this.
The way Sweden and Denmark allowed their investigations to die shows clearly that the strike was executed by someone Ukraine affiliated.
How much permission they've asked from Kiev is another matter.
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If Russia wanted to cut off NS2, couldn't they just have...cut off NS2?
Occam's Razor puts that one squarely in the Ukraine-affiliated camp.
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On October 03 2025 03:52 Admiral Yang wrote:
If Russia wanted to cut off NS2, couldn't they just have...cut off NS2?
Occam's Razor puts that one squarely in the Ukraine-affiliated camp.
Not at all. "just turning it off" would incur political pressure to turn it back on. Blowing it up makes that impossible. Blowing it up and blaming the Ukrainians is a huge win.
So Occam's razor isn't really all that obvious in this case, as motivation points in either direction
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United States43059 Posts
On October 03 2025 03:52 Admiral Yang wrote:
If Russia wanted to cut off NS2, couldn't they just have...cut off NS2?
Russia never delivered any gas through NS2. Your assertion that they didn’t cut it off is flawed. A cut off would be when they decide that from now on the gas flow will be zero. That happened. You’re just not calling it a cut off because it was already not flowing.
To put it another way, let’s say Putin went on national tv and declared for all to see that NS2 was being cut off by Russia. How would that look different to what they were already doing by not sending any gas? Isn’t “just have cut off”, as you put it, what they did?
They did decide to not send gas to Europe down NS1 though. That is a thing that Russia did. So your premise of what it would look like if Russia decided to cut off Europe did happen. They asserted a mechanical issue would prevent pumping until sanctions were removed by Germany. Germany started legal proceedings and Russia declares force majeure after the sabotage to NS1.
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EPT
