EPTRusso-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 335
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NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets. Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source. | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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Ardias
Russian Federation610 Posts
On January 02 2023 00:09 gobbledydook wrote: I think Putin might be happy to let Wagner continue to expend resources in Bahkmut. He weakens a rival military force while selling the offensive to the Russian public. If Putin wanted to weaken Wagner, he simply wouldn't allow them to recruit convicts or be provided with weaponry. Where do you think Wagner acquired their own air force? | ||
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Simberto
Germany11511 Posts
On January 02 2023 08:18 Ardias wrote: If Putin wanted to weaken Wagner, he simply wouldn't allow them to recruit convicts or be provided with weaponry. Where do you think Wagner acquired their own air force? And how would that play with the people who think that Russia is "holding back" or "playing with kids gloves"? If i understand correctly, Wagner had kind of an air of being a very effective fighting force. Much easier win-win play here. If Wagner wins, he claims that victory as a victory for Russia. If Wagner fails, it wasn't Russia that failed, just Wagner. Which justifies giving them less stuff, because they would waste it anyways. | ||
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Ardias
Russian Federation610 Posts
On January 02 2023 08:30 Simberto wrote: And how would that play with the people who think that Russia is "holding back" or "playing with kids gloves"? If i understand correctly, Wagner had kind of an air of being a very effective fighting force. Much easier win-win play here. If Wagner wins, he claims that victory as a victory for Russia. If Wagner fails, it wasn't Russia that failed, just Wagner. Which justifies giving them less stuff, because they would waste it anyways. Enlisting convicts wasn't met originally with entusiasm even among many in patriotic crowd, and it was by itself a bad PR for the Army, that they had to employ convicts, simultaneously showing trust and giving huge authority to Wagner, since Russian prison system is one of the most bureauceatic and tightly controlled, imagine the kind of authority you need to pull out thousands of convicts with no paperwork (at least I didn't hear of such) on a whim? Plus this is simply Wagner's area of the front since April (since Wagner and LPR troops took Popasna). The Bakhmut meatgrinder is a direct result of their advance, which forced Ukraine to throw in brigade after brigade into the city. And then Wagner was given means, both in terms of manpower (convicts and new volunteers) and weapons (they were given artillery, planes, new "Vystrel" armored cars and even newest T-90M tanks) to go on with that meatgrinder, tying there huge amount of UA forces. So I'd wager that whatever happening in Bakhmut is just a part of overall Russian military strategy, and not some kind of deliberate political ploy, especially directed against Wagner in particular. Prigozhin himself is vocally supportive of this battle. As for the number of Ukrainan forces in Bakhmut - based on differen OSINT sources, there were elements of around 30 different AFU regular, TDF and National Guard brigades near the city within past week or two, plus some other smaller units. That doesn't mean that they are at full strength there though, Ukrainians often operate in separate battalions, so there could be 1-4 battalions present from each one (besides 54th Mechanized, since Bakhmut is their main peacetime base). So it would give at least around 60-70 infantry battalions, which with all support and logistics units could amount to 60-70 thousand men there (more or less considering losses). There aren't that many vehicles though, mostly infantry. Considering the fact that units need rotation to rest, resupply, train new recruits, be kept in reserve, guard rear areas, like border from Vovchansk to Poland, and Ukraine currently has around 550-600 infantry and tank battalions - I would say that Wagner tied from a quarter to a third of UA units currently deployed to the battle line. Though Wagner there is also supported by LPR and Kadyrovtsi units on their right, and DPR forces on their left. | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
YouTube video of the previous tweet. | ||
KwarK
United States42694 Posts
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Magic Powers
Austria4103 Posts
Bakhmut isn't even all Wagner on the Russian side, they're under a mix of various commands, and Wagner is only one of them. They're also most likely not the only ones using soldiers as cannon fodder. | ||
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Simberto
Germany11511 Posts
On January 02 2023 15:42 KwarK wrote: Ukraine has forces to tie up, they have a pretty significant numerical advantage in the theatre. Taking huge losses in order to tie up Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut is the strategy that lost them Kherson. Ukraine is fully capable of waging war on two fronts. Exactly. "Tying up" forces only works if you are doing stuff elsewhere. Tying up forces through losing your own without gaining anything else anywhere does not sound like a winning strategy to me. | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
Russian casualties piled up more than usual in the last two days as the 2022 calendar year came to a close. The Ukraine Defense Ministry stated on Sunday that the previous day's toll of Russian soldiers killed was 760, which is much higher than typical daily averages of less than 600. The defense ministry on Saturday listed 710 Russians killed, which brings the two-day total to 1,470 Russian casualties. Russia has now lost an estimated 106,720 soldiers since the war began in late February 2022. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky during his Sunday night address to the nation said Russia is "afraid" and that he senses "fear." "They are afraid. You can feel it. And they are right to be afraid. Because they are losing. Drones, missiles, anything else will not help them. Because we are together. And they are together only with fear," Zelensky said. Zelensky added that Ukraine shot down 45 Shahed drones on the first day of the new year, and he called Russians "pathetic." "Russian terrorists were pathetic, and they entered this year staying the same. Our defenders were awesome, and on January 1 they showed themselves very well," Zelensky said. Ukraine defense officials Sunday additionally stated heavy losses of equipment by Russia during the 312th day of the war, including nine armored combat vehicles and 13 automotive equipment and tanks. Just one week ago, Zelensky said Russia has lost a lot in this war, but that Russian President Vladimir Putin will keep pressing forward. "Russia has lost everything possible this year," Zelensky said the day after Christmas. "But [Putin] is trying to compensate for his losses with the cunning of his propagandists following missile strikes on our country, on our energy sector. "There are a few days left in this year. We must be aware that our enemy will try to make this time dark and difficult for us," Zelensky said. "I know that the darkness will not prevent us from leading the occupiers to their new defeats, but we must be prepared for any scenario." His Christmas message was a little more sobering, including saying there's a loss of hope. "Our houses and streets can't be so bright. And Christmas bells can ring not so loudly and inspiringly. Through air raid sirens, or even worse – gunshots and explosions," Zelensky said. "And all this together can pose a bigger threat. It is a disappointment. Of the higher forces and their power, of goodness and justice in the world. Loss of hope. Loss of love. Loss of myself ..." Source Also Russia has confirmed the Ukrainian HIMARs strike but states 63 were killed. | ||
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Sermokala
United States13935 Posts
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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KwarK
United States42694 Posts
On January 03 2023 02:33 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: So social media is stating that the soldiers that got hit were all from the same area. Literally a neighborhood battalion, and if the casualties are in the hundreds that is a devasting loss for one area. There is a reason the British stopped such a thing after WW1, and the US after the Civil War. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pals_battalion | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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Simberto
Germany11511 Posts
On January 04 2023 03:36 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: An update from Bakhmut from Wagner's very own leader. On why they have been unable to breakthrough. https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1610277981032747009 "They are really defending the thing we have been attacking for months now! No one could have expected that!" | ||
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Magic Powers
Austria4103 Posts
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
Ukraine has achieved fire control of the Kreminna highway. | ||
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Manit0u
Poland17257 Posts
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plasmidghost
Belgium16168 Posts
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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