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United States43460 Posts
On January 01 2023 03:11 plasmidghost wrote:
What would the odds be of regions breaking off from Russia? Like I would assume extremely low, even for areas like Dagestan and Chechnya, but I have to imagine that as Putin and Russia fail, thoughts of it would go up
Russia is actively demonstrating that if they feel like you belong to them and you break away then they will bide their time, build up their forces, and kill your civilians. If you want to break away from Russia you better have someone willing to protect you.
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On January 01 2023 02:27 Sermokala wrote:
The reconstruction effort for Ukraine is going to demand a lot of labor and its going to be able to use Russian speakers. Investments into Ukraine by western companies happy to invest in a country under the NATO umbrella will flow like a tsunami. 2.5 Trillion US dollars a day are parked with the federal reserve daily beacuse there is no where to spend it. Plugging Ukraine back into the global economy Would reverse a lot of inflationary pressure and allow for somewhere for the west to move its dollars into to invest.
I'd like to believe that but why would Russia allow any Ukrainian reconstruction to take place?
No business will invest in Ukraine without a peace treaty or at least a firm security guarantee.
Which is exactly why Russia has no intention of ever allowing these things to happen.
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United States43460 Posts
On January 01 2023 03:43 pmp10 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 01 2023 02:27 Sermokala wrote:
The reconstruction effort for Ukraine is going to demand a lot of labor and its going to be able to use Russian speakers. Investments into Ukraine by western companies happy to invest in a country under the NATO umbrella will flow like a tsunami. 2.5 Trillion US dollars a day are parked with the federal reserve daily beacuse there is no where to spend it. Plugging Ukraine back into the global economy Would reverse a lot of inflationary pressure and allow for somewhere for the west to move its dollars into to invest. I'd like to believe that but why would Russia allow any Ukrainian reconstruction to take place? No business will invest in Ukraine without a peace treaty or at least a firm security guarantee. Which is exactly why Russia has no intention of ever allowing these things to happen.
I don't think there was any intent to ask Russia's permission.
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Knew I had seen that woman before, was during the mothers who lost their sons in Ukraine meeting with Putin... here she is during Putin's new years eve speech.
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On January 01 2023 03:43 pmp10 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 01 2023 02:27 Sermokala wrote:
The reconstruction effort for Ukraine is going to demand a lot of labor and its going to be able to use Russian speakers. Investments into Ukraine by western companies happy to invest in a country under the NATO umbrella will flow like a tsunami. 2.5 Trillion US dollars a day are parked with the federal reserve daily beacuse there is no where to spend it. Plugging Ukraine back into the global economy Would reverse a lot of inflationary pressure and allow for somewhere for the west to move its dollars into to invest. I'd like to believe that but why would Russia allow any Ukrainian reconstruction to take place? No business will invest in Ukraine without a peace treaty or at least a firm security guarantee. Which is exactly why Russia has no intention of ever allowing these things to happen.
Stationing nato forces on the border isn't provoking Russia after this. It's reacting to legitimate and evidence based need to prevent war from screwing over the worlds economy and giving Ukraine a chance to recover. Call them peacekeepers but there will not even be a thought of another war.
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Warmest new years in central Europe ever on record(?). I had plenty customers in shorts today and had to turn off my heating at home. Next two months can be as cold as they want. Someone put their money on the wrong horse.
Ukraine will prevail and be rebuilt. The Russian Federation will not exist in its current state anymore in a couple of years.
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On January 01 2023 10:01 r00ty wrote:
Warmest new years in central Europe ever on record(?). I had plenty customers in shorts today and had to turn off my heating at home. Next two months can be as cold as they want. Someone put their money on the wrong horse.
Ukraine will prevail and be rebuilt. The Russian Federation will not exist in its current state anymore in a couple of years.
Yep, natural gas on the Dutch TTF index crashed from 84 to 72 on Friday alone and the two-week forecast for Belgium has us not dropping below 4°C. Russia is fucked in that regard
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Kyiv is still being bombarded. No idea how the defense is doing.
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On January 01 2023 03:59 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On January 01 2023 03:43 pmp10 wrote:On January 01 2023 02:27 Sermokala wrote:
The reconstruction effort for Ukraine is going to demand a lot of labor and its going to be able to use Russian speakers. Investments into Ukraine by western companies happy to invest in a country under the NATO umbrella will flow like a tsunami. 2.5 Trillion US dollars a day are parked with the federal reserve daily beacuse there is no where to spend it. Plugging Ukraine back into the global economy Would reverse a lot of inflationary pressure and allow for somewhere for the west to move its dollars into to invest. I'd like to believe that but why would Russia allow any Ukrainian reconstruction to take place? No business will invest in Ukraine without a peace treaty or at least a firm security guarantee. Which is exactly why Russia has no intention of ever allowing these things to happen. I don't think there was any intent to ask Russia's permission.
I think you know their objections can be delivered by long range missiles.
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On January 01 2023 03:43 pmp10 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 01 2023 02:27 Sermokala wrote:
The reconstruction effort for Ukraine is going to demand a lot of labor and its going to be able to use Russian speakers. Investments into Ukraine by western companies happy to invest in a country under the NATO umbrella will flow like a tsunami. 2.5 Trillion US dollars a day are parked with the federal reserve daily beacuse there is no where to spend it. Plugging Ukraine back into the global economy Would reverse a lot of inflationary pressure and allow for somewhere for the west to move its dollars into to invest. I'd like to believe that but why would Russia allow any Ukrainian reconstruction to take place? No business will invest in Ukraine without a peace treaty or at least a firm security guarantee. Which is exactly why Russia has no intention of ever allowing these things to happen.
I guess you underestimate the power of money. Rebuilding Ukraine will require massive construction contracts, which will be even more lucrative due to increased risk from potential unexploded ordnance etc.
It's a pretty safe bet to assume that if there's big money to be made they'll figure out how to make it happen.
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On January 01 2023 18:11 Manit0u wrote:Show nested quote +On January 01 2023 03:43 pmp10 wrote:On January 01 2023 02:27 Sermokala wrote:
The reconstruction effort for Ukraine is going to demand a lot of labor and its going to be able to use Russian speakers. Investments into Ukraine by western companies happy to invest in a country under the NATO umbrella will flow like a tsunami. 2.5 Trillion US dollars a day are parked with the federal reserve daily beacuse there is no where to spend it. Plugging Ukraine back into the global economy Would reverse a lot of inflationary pressure and allow for somewhere for the west to move its dollars into to invest. I'd like to believe that but why would Russia allow any Ukrainian reconstruction to take place? No business will invest in Ukraine without a peace treaty or at least a firm security guarantee. Which is exactly why Russia has no intention of ever allowing these things to happen. I guess you underestimate the power of money. Rebuilding Ukraine will require massive construction contracts, which will be even more lucrative due to increased risk from potential unexploded ordnance etc. It's a pretty safe bet to assume that if there's big money to be made they'll figure out how to make it happen.
God I hope Ukraine doesn't get bought out by companies like BlackRock
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On January 01 2023 16:05 pmp10 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 01 2023 03:59 KwarK wrote:On January 01 2023 03:43 pmp10 wrote:On January 01 2023 02:27 Sermokala wrote:
The reconstruction effort for Ukraine is going to demand a lot of labor and its going to be able to use Russian speakers. Investments into Ukraine by western companies happy to invest in a country under the NATO umbrella will flow like a tsunami. 2.5 Trillion US dollars a day are parked with the federal reserve daily beacuse there is no where to spend it. Plugging Ukraine back into the global economy Would reverse a lot of inflationary pressure and allow for somewhere for the west to move its dollars into to invest. I'd like to believe that but why would Russia allow any Ukrainian reconstruction to take place? No business will invest in Ukraine without a peace treaty or at least a firm security guarantee. Which is exactly why Russia has no intention of ever allowing these things to happen. I don't think there was any intent to ask Russia's permission. I think you know their objections can be delivered by long range missiles.
I assumed we were talking about a post-peace rebuilding. Part of that peace will inevitably be a strong NATO military presence in Ukraine to stop Russia from reviving their imperialistic notions again in a few years. What that means internally for Russia I don't know, but I doubt Putin holds onto power for long after wasting thousands of lives, plunging the economy into the dark ages and then losing the war it was all for. And post-Putin Russia is a dark and scary unknown. Chances are they will sell their nukes to the highest bidder rather than fire them off in retaliation over losing a war they shouldn't have started.
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On January 01 2023 18:33 plasmidghost wrote:Show nested quote +On January 01 2023 18:11 Manit0u wrote:On January 01 2023 03:43 pmp10 wrote:On January 01 2023 02:27 Sermokala wrote:
The reconstruction effort for Ukraine is going to demand a lot of labor and its going to be able to use Russian speakers. Investments into Ukraine by western companies happy to invest in a country under the NATO umbrella will flow like a tsunami. 2.5 Trillion US dollars a day are parked with the federal reserve daily beacuse there is no where to spend it. Plugging Ukraine back into the global economy Would reverse a lot of inflationary pressure and allow for somewhere for the west to move its dollars into to invest. I'd like to believe that but why would Russia allow any Ukrainian reconstruction to take place? No business will invest in Ukraine without a peace treaty or at least a firm security guarantee. Which is exactly why Russia has no intention of ever allowing these things to happen. I guess you underestimate the power of money. Rebuilding Ukraine will require massive construction contracts, which will be even more lucrative due to increased risk from potential unexploded ordnance etc. It's a pretty safe bet to assume that if there's big money to be made they'll figure out how to make it happen. God I hope Ukraine doesn't get bought out by companies like BlackRock
Honestly, i I doubt it'd make good returns for a decade or more in most industries. On it's own Ukraine would struggle to rebuild without outside capital and supplies.
Of course, Blackrock would have stakes in the companies that supply the building supplies and construction equipment, so they win anyways when the governments start pulling out the billion dollar contracts.
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On January 01 2023 18:11 Manit0u wrote:Show nested quote +On January 01 2023 03:43 pmp10 wrote:On January 01 2023 02:27 Sermokala wrote:
The reconstruction effort for Ukraine is going to demand a lot of labor and its going to be able to use Russian speakers. Investments into Ukraine by western companies happy to invest in a country under the NATO umbrella will flow like a tsunami. 2.5 Trillion US dollars a day are parked with the federal reserve daily beacuse there is no where to spend it. Plugging Ukraine back into the global economy Would reverse a lot of inflationary pressure and allow for somewhere for the west to move its dollars into to invest. I'd like to believe that but why would Russia allow any Ukrainian reconstruction to take place? No business will invest in Ukraine without a peace treaty or at least a firm security guarantee. Which is exactly why Russia has no intention of ever allowing these things to happen. I guess you underestimate the power of money. Rebuilding Ukraine will require massive construction contracts, which will be even more lucrative due to increased risk from potential unexploded ordnance etc. It's a pretty safe bet to assume that if there's big money to be made they'll figure out how to make it happen.
I mean - what is to stop Russia from deliberately striking any rebuilding efforts with missiles?
No money can be made when your investment immediately becomes a target for a Russian bombing campaign.
No insurers or risk assessment will green-light investments with prospect like that.
On January 01 2023 18:41 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On January 01 2023 16:05 pmp10 wrote:On January 01 2023 03:59 KwarK wrote:On January 01 2023 03:43 pmp10 wrote:On January 01 2023 02:27 Sermokala wrote:
The reconstruction effort for Ukraine is going to demand a lot of labor and its going to be able to use Russian speakers. Investments into Ukraine by western companies happy to invest in a country under the NATO umbrella will flow like a tsunami. 2.5 Trillion US dollars a day are parked with the federal reserve daily beacuse there is no where to spend it. Plugging Ukraine back into the global economy Would reverse a lot of inflationary pressure and allow for somewhere for the west to move its dollars into to invest. I'd like to believe that but why would Russia allow any Ukrainian reconstruction to take place? No business will invest in Ukraine without a peace treaty or at least a firm security guarantee. Which is exactly why Russia has no intention of ever allowing these things to happen. I don't think there was any intent to ask Russia's permission. I think you know their objections can be delivered by long range missiles. I assumed we were talking about a post-peace rebuilding.
But again - why should Russia ever accept peace when half-frozen conflict is to their advantage?
The economic and political pressure failed to stop them and they are still convinced they win long-term.
Georgia never got the status of its separatists settled and it arguably played-out to Russia's benefit.
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Russia has been launching missiles and drones at Ukraine to destroy infrastructure. Ukraine is able right now to destroy a large % of these. The west isn't providing more air defense systems immediately because we don't have them... yet. I think it's safe to say that big infrastructure projects will go hand in hand with a lot of new air defense systems going online in the next couple of years.
As for Russia, over half of its exports are fossil fuels, representing just under half of government revenue. The rest of the economy will be tanking as long as Russia is seen as a hostile state. Meanwhile, it's demographic picture was already dire before the war.
The most likely scenario is one where Russia is decisively defeated by being expelled from all of Ukraine's territory, its economy going to shit, with no prospects of anything positive for young people for years. I'm not sure they'll still be worried about hurling missiles at Ukraine at that point.
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On January 01 2023 19:56 pmp10 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 01 2023 18:11 Manit0u wrote:On January 01 2023 03:43 pmp10 wrote:On January 01 2023 02:27 Sermokala wrote:
The reconstruction effort for Ukraine is going to demand a lot of labor and its going to be able to use Russian speakers. Investments into Ukraine by western companies happy to invest in a country under the NATO umbrella will flow like a tsunami. 2.5 Trillion US dollars a day are parked with the federal reserve daily beacuse there is no where to spend it. Plugging Ukraine back into the global economy Would reverse a lot of inflationary pressure and allow for somewhere for the west to move its dollars into to invest. I'd like to believe that but why would Russia allow any Ukrainian reconstruction to take place? No business will invest in Ukraine without a peace treaty or at least a firm security guarantee. Which is exactly why Russia has no intention of ever allowing these things to happen. I guess you underestimate the power of money. Rebuilding Ukraine will require massive construction contracts, which will be even more lucrative due to increased risk from potential unexploded ordnance etc. It's a pretty safe bet to assume that if there's big money to be made they'll figure out how to make it happen. I mean - what is to stop Russia from deliberately striking any rebuilding efforts with missiles? No money can be made when your investment immediately becomes a target for a Russian bombing campaign. No insurers or risk assessment will green-light investments with prospect like that. Show nested quote +On January 01 2023 18:41 Acrofales wrote:On January 01 2023 16:05 pmp10 wrote:On January 01 2023 03:59 KwarK wrote:On January 01 2023 03:43 pmp10 wrote:On January 01 2023 02:27 Sermokala wrote:
The reconstruction effort for Ukraine is going to demand a lot of labor and its going to be able to use Russian speakers. Investments into Ukraine by western companies happy to invest in a country under the NATO umbrella will flow like a tsunami. 2.5 Trillion US dollars a day are parked with the federal reserve daily beacuse there is no where to spend it. Plugging Ukraine back into the global economy Would reverse a lot of inflationary pressure and allow for somewhere for the west to move its dollars into to invest. I'd like to believe that but why would Russia allow any Ukrainian reconstruction to take place? No business will invest in Ukraine without a peace treaty or at least a firm security guarantee. Which is exactly why Russia has no intention of ever allowing these things to happen. I don't think there was any intent to ask Russia's permission. I think you know their objections can be delivered by long range missiles. I assumed we were talking about a post-peace rebuilding. But again - why should Russia ever accept peace when half-frozen conflict is to their advantage? The economic and political pressure failed to stop them and they are still convinced they win long-term. Georgia never got the status of its separatists settled and it arguably played-out to Russia's benefit.
There are 3 peace scenarios.
1) Negotiated peace.
2) Complete collapse of Russian army and their withdrawal from Ukraine.
3) Russian forces thrown out of Ukraine by force (probably takes years of grinding combat).
None of them leaves Russia in a position where they can or want to sustain a conflict with Ukraine.
"Freezing" a conflict only works when one side tries to avoid continued war with the other side. That train left already. Russia can't freeze the conflict because Ukraine won't stop fighting until there is peace. Right now that's easy because there are Russians inside Ukraine but there is absolutely nothing stopping them from launching their own attacks into Russia in your hypothetical scenario. Indeed Russian air defence is significantly worse and it's a much larger country. Simple strike drones are 20k each and can be mass produced. There is no doubt Ukraine could (and should) give as good as they take if Russia refuses peace after being defeated on the battlefield.
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Putin's decree from late 2022 for further mobilization went into effect. 137 000 more soldiers this January, the aim is to get over 2 million soldiers in the army. The narrative is still the same: NATO is the enemy, they keep coming closer to Russia's borders, yada yada.
https://newsunrolled.com/politics/153383.html
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On January 01 2023 19:56 pmp10 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 01 2023 18:11 Manit0u wrote:On January 01 2023 03:43 pmp10 wrote:On January 01 2023 02:27 Sermokala wrote:
The reconstruction effort for Ukraine is going to demand a lot of labor and its going to be able to use Russian speakers. Investments into Ukraine by western companies happy to invest in a country under the NATO umbrella will flow like a tsunami. 2.5 Trillion US dollars a day are parked with the federal reserve daily beacuse there is no where to spend it. Plugging Ukraine back into the global economy Would reverse a lot of inflationary pressure and allow for somewhere for the west to move its dollars into to invest. I'd like to believe that but why would Russia allow any Ukrainian reconstruction to take place? No business will invest in Ukraine without a peace treaty or at least a firm security guarantee. Which is exactly why Russia has no intention of ever allowing these things to happen. I guess you underestimate the power of money. Rebuilding Ukraine will require massive construction contracts, which will be even more lucrative due to increased risk from potential unexploded ordnance etc. It's a pretty safe bet to assume that if there's big money to be made they'll figure out how to make it happen. I mean - what is to stop Russia from deliberately striking any rebuilding efforts with missiles? No money can be made when your investment immediately becomes a target for a Russian bombing campaign. No insurers or risk assessment will green-light investments with prospect like that. Show nested quote +On January 01 2023 18:41 Acrofales wrote:On January 01 2023 16:05 pmp10 wrote:On January 01 2023 03:59 KwarK wrote:On January 01 2023 03:43 pmp10 wrote:On January 01 2023 02:27 Sermokala wrote:
The reconstruction effort for Ukraine is going to demand a lot of labor and its going to be able to use Russian speakers. Investments into Ukraine by western companies happy to invest in a country under the NATO umbrella will flow like a tsunami. 2.5 Trillion US dollars a day are parked with the federal reserve daily beacuse there is no where to spend it. Plugging Ukraine back into the global economy Would reverse a lot of inflationary pressure and allow for somewhere for the west to move its dollars into to invest. I'd like to believe that but why would Russia allow any Ukrainian reconstruction to take place? No business will invest in Ukraine without a peace treaty or at least a firm security guarantee. Which is exactly why Russia has no intention of ever allowing these things to happen. I don't think there was any intent to ask Russia's permission. I think you know their objections can be delivered by long range missiles. I assumed we were talking about a post-peace rebuilding. But again - why should Russia ever accept peace when half-frozen conflict is to their advantage? The economic and political pressure failed to stop them and they are still convinced they win long-term. Georgia never got the status of its separatists settled and it arguably played-out to Russia's benefit.
I think if we take Israel as an example, which is literally surrounded by enemies, investors don't appear to be particularly worried about missiles as long as the risk of a successful invasion is low. A damaged building can be repaired, but it cannot be reclaimed from an authoritarian government. If Ukraine wins the war, and if then Ukraine can stop the vast majority of the incoming missiles - which it can do with the help of NATO - it shouldn't be a problem at all.
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On January 01 2023 20:45 Magic Powers wrote:Putin's decree from late 2022 for further mobilization went into effect. 137 000 more soldiers this January, the aim is to get over 2 million soldiers in the army. The narrative is still the same: NATO is the enemy, they keep coming closer to Russia's borders, yada yada. https://newsunrolled.com/politics/153383.html
Given the number of officers killed, I really think that these soldiers won't be properly trained anytime soon and I wouldn't be surprised if Putin threw them at Bakhmut unless he decides to let Wagner keep the fighting going while the military builds up
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On January 01 2023 20:26 warding wrote:
Russia has been launching missiles and drones at Ukraine to destroy infrastructure. Ukraine is able right now to destroy a large % of these. The west isn't providing more air defense systems immediately because we don't have them... yet. I think it's safe to say that big infrastructure projects will go hand in hand with a lot of new air defense systems going online in the next couple of years.
As for Russia, over half of its exports are fossil fuels, representing just under half of government revenue. The rest of the economy will be tanking as long as Russia is seen as a hostile state. Meanwhile, it's demographic picture was already dire before the war.
The most likely scenario is one where Russia is decisively defeated by being expelled from all of Ukraine's territory, its economy going to shit, with no prospects of anything positive for young people for years. I'm not sure they'll still be worried about hurling missiles at Ukraine at that point. There is one big reason for Russia to keep the fighting going, it stops Ukraine for formally joining NATO.
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EPT
