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On December 31 2022 18:23 warding wrote: Russia is an empire who never reflected on its past (edited, thanks maybenexttime). The general understanding of the world is still an imperial one, one where countries are either colonizers or are colonized. In this understanding of the world, the only explanation is that Russia and the US are competing over the colonization of Ukraine. Ukraine is bound to be a colony, and Russia is fighting to be its master.
Most of Europe was forced to de-imperialize and come to terms with the end of its empires. We now mostly have different narratives - about economic cooperation, prosperity, pacifism and so on. The thing is that many of us now don't understand the imperialistic view of the world that Russians have and that was one of the factors that made so many of us get caught off guard with the invasion.
Russia will always be like this until it's forced to reckon with it's past.
It's past: starting WW2 together with Hitler, committing countless genocides of nearly every nation next to them and within them, the disaster that was the Soviet Union, being almost the only country in Europe unable to build democratic political institutions.
Brexit was possible because of past power and imperialism, so it happens elsewhere too.
To Russia, EU and Nato are enemy "empires" which need to be stopped.
On December 31 2022 10:17 SC-Shield wrote: TLDR: Russia and NATO need to go back to partnership. Only through communication both sides should resolve differences and to stop fearing each other to prevent further wars. Just my 2 cents.
We had partnership for years and they hated it. We had “let’s all get rich together, you’ve got gas, we’ve got western goods, let’s work together and enjoy peace and prosperity”.
They don’t want communication, they don’t want peace and prosperity, they want Ukrainian blood and they won’t accept anything less.
Maybe it's due to some misunderstood heritage of Kievan Rus? I don't know. I know they spread lies (nazis, Azov battalion, etc) to justify that invasion when it's all about sphere of influence. I do know one thing, this war won't end for good if we don't go back to Russia-NATO partnership. Of course, without throwing Ukraine under the bus. It's difficult but hopefully there is a way.
Might as well say “WW2 won’t end for good if we don’t get back to British-Nazi partnership”. There is no partnership to be had.
Russia doesn’t want partnership. They had it for years and they still bit the hand that fed them. They want blood. The war will end when they have been defanged. You don’t cuddle the rabid dog.
The funny thing is that that is kind of how WW2 ended for good. If you replace "Nazi" with "German", that is what got us stability in europe. A British-French-German partnership that was good for everyone involved.
Of course, that required a complete regime change in Germany to be possible. But afterwards, i firmly believe that this (combined with the threat of the soviet union) is what gave us 70 years of stability and no wars in western europe, a situation basically without precedent in european history.
Yeah. I don't really know what it would take to undo decades of lies and falsehoods they've been feeding their citizens. Plenty of Russians still think Stalin was a great leader and somehow omit the fact that he was responsible for three times as many deaths as Hitler's regime. They also conveniently forget that without the help from the US they would be conquered by the Germans during WW2. Then all the genocides, ethnic and cultural cleansing during the revolutions etc. etc.
On December 31 2022 10:17 SC-Shield wrote: TLDR: Russia and NATO need to go back to partnership. Only through communication both sides should resolve differences and to stop fearing each other to prevent further wars. Just my 2 cents.
We had partnership for years and they hated it. We had “let’s all get rich together, you’ve got gas, we’ve got western goods, let’s work together and enjoy peace and prosperity”.
They don’t want communication, they don’t want peace and prosperity, they want Ukrainian blood and they won’t accept anything less.
Maybe it's due to some misunderstood heritage of Kievan Rus? I don't know. I know they spread lies (nazis, Azov battalion, etc) to justify that invasion when it's all about sphere of influence. I do know one thing, this war won't end for good if we don't go back to Russia-NATO partnership. Of course, without throwing Ukraine under the bus. It's difficult but hopefully there is a way.
Might as well say “WW2 won’t end for good if we don’t get back to British-Nazi partnership”. There is no partnership to be had.
Russia doesn’t want partnership. They had it for years and they still bit the hand that fed them. They want blood. The war will end when they have been defanged. You don’t cuddle the rabid dog.
The funny thing is that that is kind of how WW2 ended for good. If you replace "Nazi" with "German", that is what got us stability in europe. A British-French-German partnership that was good for everyone involved.
Of course, that required a complete regime change in Germany to be possible. But afterwards, i firmly believe that this (combined with the threat of the soviet union) is what gave us 70 years of stability and no wars in western europe, a situation basically without precedent in european history.
It wasn't economic cooperation that got us peace and stability in Europe, it was military defeat by Germany followed by us all being in-between two much bigger and stronger powers. In the second half of the 20th century it became ridiculous for western European countries to keep dreaming of imperial power so we were forced to build different narratives.
In many cases it wasn't a finished job, because it really wasn't down to self reflection. There is still a bit of illusion of grandeur lingering in France and Britain. The Portuguese still have a national narrative of "we used to be great" that neglects the second part of that idea which is "partly because we colonized others and built an empire on top of slave trade". Still, this is millions of miles better than where Russia is.
I'm the biggest EU fanboy and believe it's a major force for good in the world. Still, the thesis that economic cooperation with another country guarantees peace was proven completely false with Russia. The EU is a factor for peace within it, but a more relevant one is the (partly unfinished) destruction of the imperial myths and the building of stable democratic institutions in western Europe.
Edit: the one country who did a great job at building a post-imperialism national narrative? Poland.
On December 31 2022 11:18 Magic Powers wrote: There's a myth out there that has spread, I don't know how prevalent it is, but I've heard it being propagated by various people including my dad. It alleges that Putin did want Russia to become a NATO member but was denied.
I predict Russia will turn into a sort of second North Korea after this war, with the difference being that international travel will be allowed. Eventually even that could change if the economy crashes too hard. A friend of mine who studies geopolitics predicts that some states will use the opportunity of Russia's weakness to break away and become fully autonomous, further chipping away at the might of the Russian Empire. No matter what happens, Putin and his successor are looking towards a very grim future. Between best and worst of all the likely outcomes, there's not a single good one.
On December 31 2022 11:18 Magic Powers wrote: There's a myth out there that has spread, I don't know how prevalent it is, but I've heard it being propagated by various people including my dad. It alleges that Putin did want Russia to become a NATO member but was denied.
He vaguely signalled a hint of interest, but he never made an actual proposal. In fact he wanted to create his own alliance in competing interests with NATO.
On December 31 2022 19:57 Manit0u wrote: Yeah. I don't really know what it would take to undo decades of lies and falsehoods they've been feeding their citizens. Plenty of Russians still think Stalin was a great leader and somehow omit the fact that he was responsible for three times as many deaths as Hitler's regime. They also conveniently forget that without the help from the US they would be conquered by the Germans during WW2. Then all the genocides, ethnic and cultural cleansing during the revolutions etc. etc.
You're most likely right. I believe regime change in Russia is necessary. From Lenin to Putin there was never a time when Russia seriously considered others as equal and happy to co-exist with them. Even glorified Gorbachov wasn't ideal, he simply didn't pull the trigger when Germany was about to get united. I don't think he would have said yes otherwise. At the very least we have evidence of Reagan's appeal which Gorbachov didn't react to immediately.
Germany is a successful example of a bad country (evil) which became good after WW2. However, it wasn't done willingly so we cannot draw too many comparisons unfortunately. Nazis had to be defeated for that to happen. Russia cannot be defeated militarily (directly at least) due to availability of nukes for each side. Hence proxy wars like in Ukraine or the previous century (Cold War era). Maybe there is hope if younger Russians get educated better to change regime but they will have to swim against the tide of propaganda and oppression. It'll happen eventually (just like after collapse of USSR) but who knows how much time it'll take...
Yes, NATO-Russia partnership didn't work in the past but given adequate government in Russia it can happen. I think it should happen for a long-lasting peace but Russia needs to resolve its fear of being attacked by NATO or its inferiority complex (as KwarK put it).
Edit: If you thought Russia asking to join NATO was interesting, you may be interested in this. Apparently it's not their first attempt.
A video has come out of Oleksij Resnikow, the Ukrainian minister of defense, warning Russian citizens that Russia is - with complete certainty - planning another mobilization in the coming week and that the borders of Russia and Belarus will be closed. I don't speak Ukrainian, can someone confirm its validity?
He speaks Russian, not Ukrainian. And yes, this is what he says. The only difference is that he says "borders will be closed for men who can be mobilized", not for everyone.
On December 31 2022 22:38 ZeroByte13 wrote: He speaks Russian, not Ukrainian. And yes, this is what he says. The only difference is that he says "borders will be closed for men who can be mobilized", not for everyone.
Wasn't that already the case? Have a Russian friend whose mother could visit but not her father due to it.
On December 31 2022 23:14 Yurie wrote: Wasn't that already the case? Have a Russian friend whose mother could visit but not her father due to it.
I have many colleagues who are still visiting Russia pretty often. I don't remember hearing about any problems (yet) to get in or out of the country. But I also know that many don't risk it, "just in case". You know, it's always "nothing bad will happen" until it happens and you're screwed.
It appears we have reached the phase where Putin, who has never been weaker or more internationally more vulnerable, is paranoid about everything and everyone.
This is the fifth(?) suspicious death in about a week. That's counting the window death of an MP in India. Perhaps it was a genuine coup plot who knows.
On December 31 2022 11:18 Magic Powers wrote: There's a myth out there that has spread, I don't know how prevalent it is, but I've heard it being propagated by various people including my dad. It alleges that Putin did want Russia to become a NATO member but was denied.
He vaguely signalled a hint of interest, but he never made an actual proposal. In fact he wanted to create his own alliance in competing interests with NATO.
As evidenced by the fact that he subsequently did create his own competitor in 2002.
On December 31 2022 20:24 Magic Powers wrote: I predict Russia will turn into a sort of second North Korea after this war, with the difference being that international travel will be allowed. Eventually even that could change if the economy crashes too hard. A friend of mine who studies geopolitics predicts that some states will use the opportunity of Russia's weakness to break away and become fully autonomous, further chipping away at the might of the Russian Empire. No matter what happens, Putin and his successor are looking towards a very grim future. Between best and worst of all the likely outcomes, there's not a single good one.
They can't become NK2. Their people have already experienced a taste of what an modern standard of living looks like. North Koreans have always ever known what a peasent society with an early 1900's standard of living looks like. You cane ever only go forward before people revolt against you. The russian economy was dependent and is still dependent on imports and exports. The russian economy, like every economy, relies on educated and trained folk to work jobs like maintaining basic things like air conditioners. Ukraine in this way represents a larger existential threat to russia after the war than it will before it. If Ukraine gets even a toe into the Schengen It will create an easy pipeline for Russians to defect to Ukraine and from Ukraine work in Europe. Teaching them english German french Italian Swedish Norwegian could become an industry on itself.
More states could break off from the Russian federation but what would they be better off after then before? The reconstruction effort for Ukraine is going to demand a lot of labor and its going to be able to use Russian speakers. Investments into Ukraine by western companies happy to invest in a country under the NATO umbrella will flow like a tsunami. 2.5 Trillion US dollars a day are parked with the federal reserve daily beacuse there is no where to spend it. Plugging Ukraine back into the global economy Would reverse a lot of inflationary pressure and allow for somewhere for the west to move its dollars into to invest.
Or are they desperate to sell gas to EU again? In which case sanctions are starting to bite.
Previously they insisted upon rubles and other countries insisted on not rubles. This led to a stalemate. Russia just caved. It's basically meaningless, though one might extrapolate that they don't feel comfortable having debts and prefer any hard currency. There's a possibility that debts could be seized in the event that they lose the war.
EPT
