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On November 26 2022 00:12 pmp10 wrote: The only question beeing if Russia has enough missiles and time.
They've depleted their missile stocks considerably but they can continue what they're doing for a while longer. Ukraine is definitely on the back foot in this since to stop those attacks they'd need to advance considerably but that's going to get a lot harder in the winter. Time is not in Ukraine's favor in this, unless they get some more air defense. There's also the probability that the Ukrainian people have the will to endure this, leaving Russia out of targets and pressure, but that would be very harsh on the civilian population and I wouldn't wish it on anyone.
I wonder if some of the power problems could be alleviated by leeching power from Poland for example, but even then if the grid gets split into isolated pockets it'll only be able to aid western Ukraine.
All in all, considering all the recent developments I think that they'll be willing to endure the attacks. The massive gains they got before winter definitely helped boost morale and give people hope for victory so they have something to cling to.
I don't see a scenario in which Ukraine gives in, not while they have the military advantage.
Yes it will absolutely suck, and there is probably a lot the West can do to help that we should be doing. This would be humanitarian aid, not military so the 'Mustn't push Russia to much' tightrope doesn't exist. But do not underestimate the hardship people are willing to endure while they still have hope.
On November 26 2022 00:36 Gorsameth wrote: I don't see a scenario in which Ukraine gives in, not while they have the military advantage.
Yes it will absolutely suck, and there is probably a lot the West can do to help that we should be doing. This would be humanitarian aid, not military so the 'Mustn't push Russia to much' tightrope doesn't exist. But do not underestimate the hardship people are willing to endure while they still have hope.
And you are correct, our people already sacrificed SO MUCH, that having no heat or electricity even during the winter - is a small price to pay for the freedom. Until kremlins slave army defeated on the battlefield and pushed to the borders or 91 - there should not expect any negotiations
On November 25 2022 08:17 Ardias wrote: One part of the reason is - NATO doesn't have huge quantities of AA systems, since it generally relied on (mostly US) air supremacy to control the sky. So it may have quality, but not the numbers (especially considering the reluctance of NATO countries give up huge stocks of stuff from active service). Though at least Patriots of older models should be in huge surplus. I wonder if there may be issues of implementing proper command and control network within AFU Air Defence force for them for the time being, or there are other issues.
I'm talking about giving Ukraine Western tanks, fighter jets and ATACMS.
On November 25 2022 08:31 Manit0u wrote: Well, Polish Defense Minister wanted Germans to send Patriot systems intended for Poland into Ukraine instead (not going to happen because Germany doesn't want those systems stationed outside of NATO).
Neither does Poland nor the US. PiS is just using this to whip up anti-German hate so that they can use that in the next election. As always, fucking up our relations with important partners for internal politics.
On November 25 2022 10:19 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: From the CSTO meeting today. It appears there is no more CSTO.
Did anyone notice the colours of the folders lying next to Putin? Cheeky. ;-)
On November 25 2022 08:17 Ardias wrote: One part of the reason is - NATO doesn't have huge quantities of AA systems, since it generally relied on (mostly US) air supremacy to control the sky. So it may have quality, but not the numbers (especially considering the reluctance of NATO countries give up huge stocks of stuff from active service). Though at least Patriots of older models should be in huge surplus. I wonder if there may be issues of implementing proper command and control network within AFU Air Defence force for them for the time being, or there are other issues.
I'm talking about giving Ukraine Western tanks, fighter jets and ATACMS.
On November 25 2022 08:31 Manit0u wrote: Well, Polish Defense Minister wanted Germans to send Patriot systems intended for Poland into Ukraine instead (not going to happen because Germany doesn't want those systems stationed outside of NATO).
Neither does Poland nor the US. PiS is just using this to whip up anti-German hate so that they can use that in the next election. As always, fucking up our relations with important partners for internal politics.
Yeah, i am confused here. Why does it matter what Germany thinks about Patriot systems? They are US-made. If you want to give them to Ukraine, ask the US. They have the final decision anyways, i am sure that there are contracts in place that Germany can not just randomly give Patriot systems to anyone they want.
Edit: Regarding folder colours: Someone is gonna fall out of a window over that.
On November 25 2022 08:17 Ardias wrote: One part of the reason is - NATO doesn't have huge quantities of AA systems, since it generally relied on (mostly US) air supremacy to control the sky. So it may have quality, but not the numbers (especially considering the reluctance of NATO countries give up huge stocks of stuff from active service). Though at least Patriots of older models should be in huge surplus. I wonder if there may be issues of implementing proper command and control network within AFU Air Defence force for them for the time being, or there are other issues.
I'm talking about giving Ukraine Western tanks, fighter jets and ATACMS.
ATACMS are the easiest. On the matter of tanks - there is the question, who is willing to pay and provide for tanks and training, how the logistics would be able to sustain huge number of Western tanks, and how Leo2/M1 would fare in the snow and mud of UA steppes, where much lighter T-64/T-72s are getting stuck up to the turret. Jets are no go in the near future, unless it's the NATO pilots behind the wheel. Too much time to train all the personnel (don't forget the technichians, I would argue they are even more important than pilots) and building up all necessary network of command and control, radar installations, supplies of spare parts and munitions (all that under ongoing missile strikes). This would need investments of tens, if not hundreds, of billions USD, and much more close involvement of different NATO (mainly US) services, than now.
The biggest and soonest impact wouldn't be sending M1's to Ukraine but sending them to the former customers of the soviet union and russia in exchange for them sending the vehicles that are being replaced to Ukraine. India probably has a larger advanced tank fleet than russia does at this point but that would be a rough negotiation to basically sever ties forever with the Russian Federation. Who knows what the CIA and the DOD are doing behind the scenes in places outside of NATO spheres.
I wouldn't overestimate the lag of integrating soviet/russian systems nor the cost. NATO has had decades to integrate examples of soviet style equipment with NATO standard systems. HARM missiles got onto MIG's pretty quick.
I would also advise not underestimating the sheer depth of stuff that has been stashed in every continent in the globe for a very very very rainy day. A couple hundred billion now to forever end the russian arms trade and include Ukraine, possibly even russia, into the western sphere is a good deal every day of the week for a nation that plugged two trillion into afganistan for nothing.
The Reporting from Ukraine channel described the disturbing Russian tactics of targeting the electricity network with long range missiles.
The situation near Kherson is mostly a stalemate and artillery battle. The Ukrainians are looking for openings, but they are not willing to rush headfirst into a losing battle, like the Russians seem to be doing a lot:
Looks like Germany's gas storage capacity has reached 100% a few days ago. Some countries are a few % shy, but will likely handle things mostly fine. Latvia is 40% short, but fortunately doesn't rely much on gas for its energy consumption according to https://ourworldindata.org/energy/country/latvia Hungary is in greater trouble despite being only 15% short because they rely very much on gas. The Netherlands are in a similar spot.
On November 27 2022 01:43 Magic Powers wrote: Looks like Germany's gas storage capacity has reached 100% a few days ago. Some countries are a few % shy, but will likely handle things mostly fine. Latvia is 40% short, but fortunately doesn't rely much on gas for its energy consumption according to https://ourworldindata.org/energy/country/latvia Hungary is in greater trouble despite being only 15% short because they rely very much on gas. The Netherlands are in a similar spot.
Netherlands could just pump gas again if they really need to. They stopped because of it causing earth tremors, but they could start it up again, but with better emergency plans.
Putin meets with mothers of soldiers amid growing discontent. If more of mobilised soldiers return to Russia in body bags, who knows.. it may be the beginning of his end.
Vladimir Putin has met with a handpicked cadre of mothers of soldiers fighting in Ukraine for a carefully staged meeting meant to calm public anger over mobilisation.
While dozens of ordinary mothers have gone public saying they were snubbed by the Kremlin, Putin sat down with a former government official, the mother of a senior military and police official from Chechnya, and other women active in pro-war NGOs financed by the state.
The Guardian has managed to confirm the identifies of at least three of the women who met with Putin on Friday in a highly publicised meeting at his residence in Novo-Ogaryovo on the outskirts of Moscow.
None of the women are critical of the war against Ukraine and several have publicly sought to quell fears about the poor treatment, inadequate training, and other dangers faced by Russian troops being mustered to be sent to the front. ...
On November 28 2022 03:40 plasmidghost wrote: Y'all think the war will end next year?
If by 'end' we mean get a ceasefire for a few years then yes. Russia still has to throw the new conscript armies into the fray, but once these are used and used-up it will be a right moment for a time-out.
On November 28 2022 03:40 plasmidghost wrote: Y'all think the war will end next year? I would think that it would be a bit optimistic, but if the West gives Ukraine a bunch of equipment over the winter, it could happen.
On November 27 2022 21:56 SC-Shield wrote: Putin meets with mothers of soldiers amid growing discontent. If more of mobilised soldiers return to Russia in body bags, who knows.. it may be the beginning of his end.
Vladimir Putin has met with a handpicked cadre of mothers of soldiers fighting in Ukraine for a carefully staged meeting meant to calm public anger over mobilisation.
While dozens of ordinary mothers have gone public saying they were snubbed by the Kremlin, Putin sat down with a former government official, the mother of a senior military and police official from Chechnya, and other women active in pro-war NGOs financed by the state.
The Guardian has managed to confirm the identifies of at least three of the women who met with Putin on Friday in a highly publicised meeting at his residence in Novo-Ogaryovo on the outskirts of Moscow.
None of the women are critical of the war against Ukraine and several have publicly sought to quell fears about the poor treatment, inadequate training, and other dangers faced by Russian troops being mustered to be sent to the front. ...
On November 28 2022 03:40 plasmidghost wrote: Y'all think the war will end next year?
If by 'end' we mean get a ceasefire for a few years then yes. Russia still has to throw the new conscript armies into the fray, but once these are used and used-up it will be a right moment for a time-out.
I think it will end quite permanently next year.
War is a bit like the stock market, the price of peace is not only the current reality but also what people expect to happen in the future. This year didn't work out at all for the Russians and the winter doesn't seem to work either. And if trying to break the European resolve with energy and the Ukrainian resolve with terrorist strikes on infrastructure doesn't work during the winter it won't work in 2023 either and it will be 10x harder next winter. I just can't see anything that can allow for a massive shift in the war either for Russia so that means another grinding year and even worse the prospect of that for years.
Russia set to spend 1/3 of their total budget on defence and security while the US spend not even 6 % of their military budget. Pretty clear who can do this forever and who can't. US spent 20 trillion dollars in Afghanistan over 20 years this is peanuts.
One or two Ukrainian victories come summer and everyone in Russia except Putin is done with this shit.
EPT
