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On November 28 2022 06:00 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:Show nested quote +On November 28 2022 04:01 pmp10 wrote:On November 28 2022 03:40 plasmidghost wrote:
Y'all think the war will end next year? If by 'end' we mean get a ceasefire for a few years then yes. Russia still has to throw the new conscript armies into the fray, but once these are used and used-up it will be a right moment for a time-out. I think it will end quite permanently next year. War is a bit like the stock market, the price of peace is not only the current reality but also what people expect to happen in the future. This year didn't work out at all for the Russians and the winter doesn't seem to work either. And if trying to break the European resolve with energy and the Ukrainian resolve with terrorist strikes on infrastructure doesn't work during the winter it won't work in 2023 either and it will be 10x harder next winter. I just can't see anything that can allow for a massive shift in the war either for Russia so that means another grinding year and even worse the prospect of that for years. Russia set to spend 1/3 of their total budget on defence and security while the US spend not even 6 % of their military budget. Pretty clear who can do this forever and who can't. US spent 20 trillion dollars in Afghanistan over 20 years this is peanuts. One or two Ukrainian victories come summer and everyone in Russia except Putin is done with this shit.
The core problem is that the people making the decisions (specifically Putin) are almost certainly dead if they end the war without any success. So while they might know that they have nothing to win, they also can't really surrender. Under those circumstances, it becomes rational for Putin to keep the war going.
It is important that it is not Russia making decisions. There are individual people making decisions, and what is good for them might not be what is good for Russia.
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I think NATO can get more ammo from South Korea. They have a huge fleet of armor and artillery (basically rivaling Russia) and very deep ammo stocks that's NATO-compatible.
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On November 28 2022 06:35 Manit0u wrote:I think NATO can get more ammo from South Korea. They have a huge fleet of armor and artillery (basically rivaling Russia) and very deep ammo stocks that's NATO-compatible.
The issue there is that south korea has a hostile neighbour that will probably lead to a similar situation to the eastern european countries that have send weapons to ukraine in exchange for newer equipment or the increase of nato forces on their border. They have that huge stockpile because of the threat of north korea. I think they are unlikely to give up any active stock, and will have higher demands on how well their stockpile needs to be filled.
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On November 28 2022 07:39 Artesimo wrote:Show nested quote +On November 28 2022 06:35 Manit0u wrote:I think NATO can get more ammo from South Korea. They have a huge fleet of armor and artillery (basically rivaling Russia) and very deep ammo stocks that's NATO-compatible. The issue there is that south korea has a hostile neighbour that will probably lead to a similar situation to the eastern european countries that have send weapons to ukraine in exchange for newer equipment or the increase of nato forces on their border. They have that huge stockpile because of the threat of north korea. I think they are unlikely to give up any active stock, and will have higher demands on how well their stockpile needs to be filled.
Good point. I do wonder if as the freeze sets in, NATO goes into overdrive and pumps out a ton of weapons and equipment. Is that possible?
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Haven‘t caught up on anything lately, but it seems like there‘s way less articles coming out compared to when the war began.
Last thing I know was Biden talking about Putins off-ramp. So is there an off ramp ?
Don‘t believe this can end with a fully occupied Russia or Ukraine, no side will allow it.
Trading Crimea for Donbass ? What‘s the goal? I‘m just confused tbh.
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On November 28 2022 07:59 Vivax wrote:
Haven‘t caught up on anything lately, but it seems like there‘s way less articles coming out compared to when the war began.
Last thing I know was Biden talking about Putins off-ramp. So is there an off ramp ?
Don‘t believe this can end with a fully occupied Russia or Ukraine, no side will allow it.
Trading Crimea for Donbass ? What‘s the goal? I‘m just confused tbh. The goal is to throw Russia out of Ukraine, killing every last soldier in Ukraine to accomplish that if need be.
Ukraine has no reason to give up any part of its territory, they are winning.
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EU officials are starting to get upset at the US for raking in profits at the EU's expense.
Top European officials are furious with Joe Biden’s administration and now accuse the Americans of making a fortune from the war, while EU countries suffer...
“The fact is, if you look at it soberly, the country that is most profiting from this war is the U.S. because they are selling more gas and at higher prices, and because they are selling more weapons,” one senior official told POLITICO...
"The U.S. is following a domestic agenda, which is regrettably protectionist and discriminates against U.S. allies," said Tonino Picula, the European Parliament's lead person on the transatlantic relationship...
Another EU diplomat argued that “the money they are making on weapons” could help Americans understand that making “all this cash on gas” might be “a bit too much.”...
“It’s not good, in terms of optics, to give the impression that your best ally is actually making huge profits out of your troubles,” the diplomat said.
But Biden doesn't seem concerned
...When EU leaders tackled Biden over high U.S. gas prices at the G20 meeting in Bali last week, the American president simply seemed unaware of the issue, according to the senior official quoted above.
www.politico.eu
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On November 28 2022 08:52 GreenHorizons wrote:EU officials are starting to get upset at the US for raking in profits at the EU's expense. Show nested quote +Top European officials are furious with Joe Biden’s administration and now accuse the Americans of making a fortune from the war, while EU countries suffer...
“The fact is, if you look at it soberly, the country that is most profiting from this war is the U.S. because they are selling more gas and at higher prices, and because they are selling more weapons,” one senior official told POLITICO...
"The U.S. is following a domestic agenda, which is regrettably protectionist and discriminates against U.S. allies," said Tonino Picula, the European Parliament's lead person on the transatlantic relationship...
Another EU diplomat argued that “the money they are making on weapons” could help Americans understand that making “all this cash on gas” might be “a bit too much.”...
“It’s not good, in terms of optics, to give the impression that your best ally is actually making huge profits out of your troubles,” the diplomat said. But Biden doesn't seem concerned Show nested quote +...When EU leaders tackled Biden over high U.S. gas prices at the G20 meeting in Bali last week, the American president simply seemed unaware of the issue, according to the senior official quoted above. www.politico.eu
I figured this was going to happen at some point soon. Does the EU even have any retaliatory potential?
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On November 28 2022 09:19 plasmidghost wrote:Show nested quote +On November 28 2022 08:52 GreenHorizons wrote:EU officials are starting to get upset at the US for raking in profits at the EU's expense. Top European officials are furious with Joe Biden’s administration and now accuse the Americans of making a fortune from the war, while EU countries suffer...
“The fact is, if you look at it soberly, the country that is most profiting from this war is the U.S. because they are selling more gas and at higher prices, and because they are selling more weapons,” one senior official told POLITICO...
"The U.S. is following a domestic agenda, which is regrettably protectionist and discriminates against U.S. allies," said Tonino Picula, the European Parliament's lead person on the transatlantic relationship...
Another EU diplomat argued that “the money they are making on weapons” could help Americans understand that making “all this cash on gas” might be “a bit too much.”...
“It’s not good, in terms of optics, to give the impression that your best ally is actually making huge profits out of your troubles,” the diplomat said. But Biden doesn't seem concerned ...When EU leaders tackled Biden over high U.S. gas prices at the G20 meeting in Bali last week, the American president simply seemed unaware of the issue, according to the senior official quoted above. www.politico.eu I figured this was going to happen at some point soon. Does the EU even have any retaliatory potential?
Best EU can do is become less reliant on the US, which you‘d think would be a good thing in terms of resource expenditure. But it‘s still going to be hampered because someone profits off said dependence.
It‘s tough to remain competitive without natural resources.
It was already a big fuss about allowing the Chinese to set up infrastructure here. But I’m drifting off.
One thing I‘m sure of is that eventually, we all go back to medieval with how fast we grew and consumed :p
There‘s to hope, not with a bang
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On November 28 2022 09:19 plasmidghost wrote:Show nested quote +On November 28 2022 08:52 GreenHorizons wrote:EU officials are starting to get upset at the US for raking in profits at the EU's expense. Top European officials are furious with Joe Biden’s administration and now accuse the Americans of making a fortune from the war, while EU countries suffer...
“The fact is, if you look at it soberly, the country that is most profiting from this war is the U.S. because they are selling more gas and at higher prices, and because they are selling more weapons,” one senior official told POLITICO...
"The U.S. is following a domestic agenda, which is regrettably protectionist and discriminates against U.S. allies," said Tonino Picula, the European Parliament's lead person on the transatlantic relationship...
Another EU diplomat argued that “the money they are making on weapons” could help Americans understand that making “all this cash on gas” might be “a bit too much.”...
“It’s not good, in terms of optics, to give the impression that your best ally is actually making huge profits out of your troubles,” the diplomat said. But Biden doesn't seem concerned ...When EU leaders tackled Biden over high U.S. gas prices at the G20 meeting in Bali last week, the American president simply seemed unaware of the issue, according to the senior official quoted above. www.politico.eu I figured this was going to happen at some point soon. Does the EU even have any retaliatory potential?
Well the French Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire suggested the EU pursue it's own economic isolationism warning “Europe must not be the last of the Mohicans”.
Logistically, Europe/the EU has to get a couple dozen countries on board and in sync with a fraction of the operating budget, so their retaliatory potential is limited by multiple factors.
I wouldn't say they have none, but it's unlikely to be anywhere near enough to change the trajectory (barring negotiations with Russia) imo.
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On November 28 2022 10:01 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On November 28 2022 09:19 plasmidghost wrote:On November 28 2022 08:52 GreenHorizons wrote:EU officials are starting to get upset at the US for raking in profits at the EU's expense. Top European officials are furious with Joe Biden’s administration and now accuse the Americans of making a fortune from the war, while EU countries suffer...
“The fact is, if you look at it soberly, the country that is most profiting from this war is the U.S. because they are selling more gas and at higher prices, and because they are selling more weapons,” one senior official told POLITICO...
"The U.S. is following a domestic agenda, which is regrettably protectionist and discriminates against U.S. allies," said Tonino Picula, the European Parliament's lead person on the transatlantic relationship...
Another EU diplomat argued that “the money they are making on weapons” could help Americans understand that making “all this cash on gas” might be “a bit too much.”...
“It’s not good, in terms of optics, to give the impression that your best ally is actually making huge profits out of your troubles,” the diplomat said. But Biden doesn't seem concerned ...When EU leaders tackled Biden over high U.S. gas prices at the G20 meeting in Bali last week, the American president simply seemed unaware of the issue, according to the senior official quoted above. www.politico.eu I figured this was going to happen at some point soon. Does the EU even have any retaliatory potential? Well the French Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire suggested the EU pursue it's own economic isolationism warning “Europe must not be the last of the Mohicans”. Logistically, Europe/the EU has to get a couple dozen countries on board and in sync with a fraction of the operating budget, so their retaliatory potential is limited by multiple factors. I wouldn't say they have none, but it's unlikely to be anywhere near enough to change the trajectory (barring negotiations with Russia) imo.
I am probably wrong but I can't think off the top of my head any time economic isolation has benefited a country/group of countries, especially in modern times
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United States43676 Posts
On November 28 2022 08:52 GreenHorizons wrote:EU officials are starting to get upset at the US for raking in profits at the EU's expense. Show nested quote +Top European officials are furious with Joe Biden’s administration and now accuse the Americans of making a fortune from the war, while EU countries suffer...
“The fact is, if you look at it soberly, the country that is most profiting from this war is the U.S. because they are selling more gas and at higher prices, and because they are selling more weapons,” one senior official told POLITICO...
"The U.S. is following a domestic agenda, which is regrettably protectionist and discriminates against U.S. allies," said Tonino Picula, the European Parliament's lead person on the transatlantic relationship...
Another EU diplomat argued that “the money they are making on weapons” could help Americans understand that making “all this cash on gas” might be “a bit too much.”...
“It’s not good, in terms of optics, to give the impression that your best ally is actually making huge profits out of your troubles,” the diplomat said. But Biden doesn't seem concerned Show nested quote +...When EU leaders tackled Biden over high U.S. gas prices at the G20 meeting in Bali last week, the American president simply seemed unaware of the issue, according to the senior official quoted above. www.politico.eu
That’s a nonsense piece. Europe created reliance on Russian gas and the US is coming to their rescue. The gas is more expensive because it’s needed elsewhere and being shipped across the Atlantic.
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On November 28 2022 14:04 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On November 28 2022 08:52 GreenHorizons wrote:EU officials are starting to get upset at the US for raking in profits at the EU's expense. Top European officials are furious with Joe Biden’s administration and now accuse the Americans of making a fortune from the war, while EU countries suffer...
“The fact is, if you look at it soberly, the country that is most profiting from this war is the U.S. because they are selling more gas and at higher prices, and because they are selling more weapons,” one senior official told POLITICO...
"The U.S. is following a domestic agenda, which is regrettably protectionist and discriminates against U.S. allies," said Tonino Picula, the European Parliament's lead person on the transatlantic relationship...
Another EU diplomat argued that “the money they are making on weapons” could help Americans understand that making “all this cash on gas” might be “a bit too much.”...
“It’s not good, in terms of optics, to give the impression that your best ally is actually making huge profits out of your troubles,” the diplomat said. But Biden doesn't seem concerned ...When EU leaders tackled Biden over high U.S. gas prices at the G20 meeting in Bali last week, the American president simply seemed unaware of the issue, according to the senior official quoted above. www.politico.eu That’s a nonsense piece. Europe created reliance on Russian gas and the US is coming to their rescue. The gas is more expensive because it’s needed elsewhere and being shipped across the Atlantic.
I think charging anything other than what is needed to keep things moving is unsavory. Yes, demand is high, but you shouldn't let that factor in when you're basically at war.
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On November 28 2022 14:19 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On November 28 2022 14:04 KwarK wrote:On November 28 2022 08:52 GreenHorizons wrote:EU officials are starting to get upset at the US for raking in profits at the EU's expense. Top European officials are furious with Joe Biden’s administration and now accuse the Americans of making a fortune from the war, while EU countries suffer...
“The fact is, if you look at it soberly, the country that is most profiting from this war is the U.S. because they are selling more gas and at higher prices, and because they are selling more weapons,” one senior official told POLITICO...
"The U.S. is following a domestic agenda, which is regrettably protectionist and discriminates against U.S. allies," said Tonino Picula, the European Parliament's lead person on the transatlantic relationship...
Another EU diplomat argued that “the money they are making on weapons” could help Americans understand that making “all this cash on gas” might be “a bit too much.”...
“It’s not good, in terms of optics, to give the impression that your best ally is actually making huge profits out of your troubles,” the diplomat said. But Biden doesn't seem concerned ...When EU leaders tackled Biden over high U.S. gas prices at the G20 meeting in Bali last week, the American president simply seemed unaware of the issue, according to the senior official quoted above. www.politico.eu That’s a nonsense piece. Europe created reliance on Russian gas and the US is coming to their rescue. The gas is more expensive because it’s needed elsewhere and being shipped across the Atlantic. I think charging anything other than what is needed to keep things moving is unsavory. Yes, demand is high, but you shouldn't let that factor in when you're basically at war.
The thing is, those companies who are selling gas are private companies. Changing a free market into something where the state decide how much private companies can price their products on a global marketplace is a huge change. If you want to limit their potential return you have to reduce their risk, like e.g. buy long term contracts instead of spot, something EU countries have been reluctant to do.
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United States43676 Posts
On November 28 2022 14:19 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On November 28 2022 14:04 KwarK wrote:On November 28 2022 08:52 GreenHorizons wrote:EU officials are starting to get upset at the US for raking in profits at the EU's expense. Top European officials are furious with Joe Biden’s administration and now accuse the Americans of making a fortune from the war, while EU countries suffer...
“The fact is, if you look at it soberly, the country that is most profiting from this war is the U.S. because they are selling more gas and at higher prices, and because they are selling more weapons,” one senior official told POLITICO...
"The U.S. is following a domestic agenda, which is regrettably protectionist and discriminates against U.S. allies," said Tonino Picula, the European Parliament's lead person on the transatlantic relationship...
Another EU diplomat argued that “the money they are making on weapons” could help Americans understand that making “all this cash on gas” might be “a bit too much.”...
“It’s not good, in terms of optics, to give the impression that your best ally is actually making huge profits out of your troubles,” the diplomat said. But Biden doesn't seem concerned ...When EU leaders tackled Biden over high U.S. gas prices at the G20 meeting in Bali last week, the American president simply seemed unaware of the issue, according to the senior official quoted above. www.politico.eu That’s a nonsense piece. Europe created reliance on Russian gas and the US is coming to their rescue. The gas is more expensive because it’s needed elsewhere and being shipped across the Atlantic. I think charging anything other than what is needed to keep things moving is unsavory. Yes, demand is high, but you shouldn't let that factor in when you're basically at war.
Things keep moving either way, the question is where they move to. Europe had to outbid other consumers, there was insufficient supply. Plenty of European energy companies are also recording massive profits too.
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On November 28 2022 06:00 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:
Russia set to spend 1/3 of their total budget on defence and security while the US spend not even 6 % of their military budget. Pretty clear who can do this forever and who can't. US spent 20 trillion dollars in Afghanistan over 20 years this is peanuts.
But the problem is that Russia doesn't have to do it forever.
Ukraine as a state won't survive another 3 years of war at this rate.
In fact between the losses in miliatary, population, infrastructure and economy I could argue they are already unable to efectively resist another invasion.
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United States43676 Posts
On November 28 2022 15:47 pmp10 wrote:Show nested quote +On November 28 2022 06:00 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:
Russia set to spend 1/3 of their total budget on defence and security while the US spend not even 6 % of their military budget. Pretty clear who can do this forever and who can't. US spent 20 trillion dollars in Afghanistan over 20 years this is peanuts. But the problem is that Russia doesn't have to do it forever. Ukraine as a state won't survive another 3 years of war at this rate. In fact between the losses in miliatary, population, infrastructure and economy I could argue they are already unable to efectively resist another invasion.
Another invasion from who exactly? Cause they’re already fully resisting the Russians. Are you worried the Poles might invade from the west?
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On November 28 2022 14:04 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On November 28 2022 08:52 GreenHorizons wrote:EU officials are starting to get upset at the US for raking in profits at the EU's expense. Top European officials are furious with Joe Biden’s administration and now accuse the Americans of making a fortune from the war, while EU countries suffer...
“The fact is, if you look at it soberly, the country that is most profiting from this war is the U.S. because they are selling more gas and at higher prices, and because they are selling more weapons,” one senior official told POLITICO...
"The U.S. is following a domestic agenda, which is regrettably protectionist and discriminates against U.S. allies," said Tonino Picula, the European Parliament's lead person on the transatlantic relationship...
Another EU diplomat argued that “the money they are making on weapons” could help Americans understand that making “all this cash on gas” might be “a bit too much.”...
“It’s not good, in terms of optics, to give the impression that your best ally is actually making huge profits out of your troubles,” the diplomat said. But Biden doesn't seem concerned ...When EU leaders tackled Biden over high U.S. gas prices at the G20 meeting in Bali last week, the American president simply seemed unaware of the issue, according to the senior official quoted above. www.politico.eu That’s a nonsense piece. Europe created reliance on Russian gas and the US is coming to their rescue. The gas is more expensive because it’s needed elsewhere and being shipped across the Atlantic.
Also it’s a bit rich from Europe to complain about the US benefitting selling weapons when we have been benefiting for decades of the american military budget and failed year after year to meet our obligations on the matter. Europeans underspending in NATO has been a hot topic for many years, and that had only been possible because of the American military effort.
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United States43676 Posts
On November 28 2022 16:05 Biff The Understudy wrote:Show nested quote +On November 28 2022 14:04 KwarK wrote:On November 28 2022 08:52 GreenHorizons wrote:EU officials are starting to get upset at the US for raking in profits at the EU's expense. Top European officials are furious with Joe Biden’s administration and now accuse the Americans of making a fortune from the war, while EU countries suffer...
“The fact is, if you look at it soberly, the country that is most profiting from this war is the U.S. because they are selling more gas and at higher prices, and because they are selling more weapons,” one senior official told POLITICO...
"The U.S. is following a domestic agenda, which is regrettably protectionist and discriminates against U.S. allies," said Tonino Picula, the European Parliament's lead person on the transatlantic relationship...
Another EU diplomat argued that “the money they are making on weapons” could help Americans understand that making “all this cash on gas” might be “a bit too much.”...
“It’s not good, in terms of optics, to give the impression that your best ally is actually making huge profits out of your troubles,” the diplomat said. But Biden doesn't seem concerned ...When EU leaders tackled Biden over high U.S. gas prices at the G20 meeting in Bali last week, the American president simply seemed unaware of the issue, according to the senior official quoted above. www.politico.eu That’s a nonsense piece. Europe created reliance on Russian gas and the US is coming to their rescue. The gas is more expensive because it’s needed elsewhere and being shipped across the Atlantic. Also it’s a bit rich from Europe to complain about the US benefitting selling weapons when we have been benefiting for decades of the american military budget and failed year after year to meet our obligations on the matter. Europeans underspending in NATO has been a hot topic for many years, and that had only been possible because of the American military effort.
Until a decade ago underspending on defence against the Soviet Union has been pretty reasonable. The Soviet threat diminished a lot in the 90s. And a lot of the US defence spending has nothing to do with NATO and everything to do with a global hegemonic empire. But since the Russian invasion of Georgia and especially since the invasion of Ukraine NATO has become more relevant.
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Zurich15363 Posts
On November 28 2022 14:04 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On November 28 2022 08:52 GreenHorizons wrote:EU officials are starting to get upset at the US for raking in profits at the EU's expense. Top European officials are furious with Joe Biden’s administration and now accuse the Americans of making a fortune from the war, while EU countries suffer...
“The fact is, if you look at it soberly, the country that is most profiting from this war is the U.S. because they are selling more gas and at higher prices, and because they are selling more weapons,” one senior official told POLITICO...
"The U.S. is following a domestic agenda, which is regrettably protectionist and discriminates against U.S. allies," said Tonino Picula, the European Parliament's lead person on the transatlantic relationship...
Another EU diplomat argued that “the money they are making on weapons” could help Americans understand that making “all this cash on gas” might be “a bit too much.”...
“It’s not good, in terms of optics, to give the impression that your best ally is actually making huge profits out of your troubles,” the diplomat said. But Biden doesn't seem concerned ...When EU leaders tackled Biden over high U.S. gas prices at the G20 meeting in Bali last week, the American president simply seemed unaware of the issue, according to the senior official quoted above. www.politico.eu That’s a nonsense piece. Europe created reliance on Russian gas and the US is coming to their rescue. The gas is more expensive because it’s needed elsewhere and being shipped across the Atlantic.
Adding to that, the main gripe of the EU with US policy is protectionism, subsidies, and other trade policy, which have nothing to do with either armament or gas sales to Europe nor with the war in Ukraine. It says so in the very article.
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EPT
