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On November 21 2022 02:09 KwarK wrote:Russia’s balance of trade looks great right now because of exports without imports but that’s a very misleading picture, it’s not that they make everything they need internally and don’t require imports, it’s that nobody will sell them the imports they desperately need.
That's a brave prediction, even Iranian drones are made up of western components despite all the sanctioning. The prices for western technology is sure to increase but as long as Russia sells anything in demand (and I think we can agree that gas and oil are very much that) there will always be a way. I think currently the re-exports are reaching Russia from Kazakhstan. But if not there then plenty of countries will jump at the opportunity.
Infrastructure for exporting large amount of petroleum takes a long time to build, most of the current infrastructure is focused on exporting to Europe. That's without taking into account that in order to build said infrastructure a large part of it is dependent on western produced modules and components. It's not something they'll be able to construct in a timely manner.
Boris Johnson described the attitudes of his continental colleagues in the period right before the invasion.
Former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has claimed France was "in denial" about the prospect of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, and accused the German government of initially favoring a quick Ukrainian military defeat over a long conflict. (...) While Johnson stressed that EU nations later rallied behind Ukraine and are now providing steadfast support, that was not universally the case in the period before the Russian invasion.
“This thing was a huge shock … we could see the Russian battalion tactical groups amassing, but different countries had very different perspectives,” Johnson told CNN’s Richard Quest in Portugal.
"The German view was at one stage that if it were going to happen, which would be a disaster, then it would be better for the whole thing to be over quickly, and for Ukraine to fold," Johnson claimed, citing "all sorts of sound economic reasons" for that approach.
"I couldn't support that, I thought that was a disastrous way of looking at it. But I can understand why they thought and felt as they did," Johnson went on. Germany has rapidly sought to reduce its reliance on Russian energy since Moscow's invasion.
"Be in no doubt that the French were in denial right up until the last moment," Johnson also said.
French President Emmanuel Macron fronted Europe's efforts to dissuade Vladimir Putin from invading Ukraine, visiting him in the Kremlin just weeks before the Russian leader ordered his troops into the country. In March, the chief of French military intelligence, Gen. Eric Vidaud, was told to step down from his post partly for "failing to anticipate" the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a military source with knowledge of the matter told CNN at the time.
Johnson also criticized Italy's initial response to the threat of an invasion. He told Quest that its government -- at the time led by Mario Draghi -- was "at one stage simply saying that they would be unable to support the position we were taking," given their "massive" reliance on Russian hydrocarbons. (...) Johnson said that once Russia launched its invasion in February, attitudes across Europe changed quickly.
"What happened was everybody -- Germans, French, Italians, everybody, (US President) Joe Biden -- saw that there was simply no option. Because you couldn't negotiate with this guy (Putin). That's the key point," the ex-Prime Minister said, adding that the "the EU has done brilliantly" in its opposition of Russia since that time.
There's video, somewhere in this thread, of Macron learning about the invasion and Zelensky telling him what had happened overnight.
Also the European Parliament has declared Russia a State Sponsor of Terror.
The European Parliament has declared Russia as a "state sponsor of terrorism" over the "brutal and inhumane" acts inflicted upon Ukraine and its citizens since the launch of the invasion.
"The deliberate attacks and atrocities carried out by the Russian Federation against the civilian population of Ukraine, the destruction of civilian infrastructure and other serious violations of human rights and international humanitarian law amount to acts of terror against the Ukrainian population and constitute war crimes," MEPs said in a non-binding but highly symbolic resolution.
"In the light of the above, (the European Parliament) recognises Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism and as a state which uses means of terrorism."
The strongly-worded resolution was overwhelmingly approved on Wednesday afternoon with 494 votes in favour, 58 against and 44 abstentions, during the monthly plenary session in Strasbourg.
The text merged three different resolutions filed by the European People's Party (EPP), Renew Europe and the European Conservatives and Reformists group (ECR).
In the final version, MEPs denounce Russia's "illegal, unprovoked and unjustified war of aggression" against Ukraine and accuse the Russian army and its proxies of committing a long list of crimes, such as the murder of "thousands" of civilians and "hundreds" of children, attacks on essential infrastructure, summary executions, abductions, rape, harassment, torture, mass detentions and forced deportations.
"These brutal and inhumane acts are causing death, suffering, destruction and displacement," MEPs said, noting the almost 40,000 war crimes that have so far been documented in Ukraine.
The lawmakers also condemned Russia for provoking a "large-scale" humanitarian crisis in Mariupol and "weaponising" food and hunger, with global implications.
These "atrocities," MEPs said, are designed to terrorise the Ukrainian population, stifle their resistance and force them to accept the "occupying power" and its attempt to illegally annex sovereign territory.
"Russia poses a risk to the safety and security of the whole European continent and the rules-based international order," the resolution reads.
As a result of all this, the European Parliament calls on EU member states to develop a brand-new legal framework that can enable the designation of an entire country as a sponsor of terrorism, something that is currently not possible.
"For the time being, the European Union has no such regulation like, for example, the Americans, who have a special law on the designation of the states which are sponsoring terrorism," Andrius Kubilius, one of the MEPs who authored the resolution, told Euronews.
But Balázs Hidvéghi, a Hungarian MEP from PM Viktor Orbán's Fidesz party, said the bloc should focus on achieve peace and a ceasefire "as soon as possible."
The EU's terrorist list, which was set up in the aftermath of 9/11 and is reviewed every six months, only allows the bloc to blacklist specific individuals and organisations.
So far, only 13 persons and 21 entities have been added, such as Hamas, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party’ (PKK), Colombia's National Liberation Army (ELN) and the military wing of Hezbollah.
As a foreign policy tool, any change to the list would require the unanimity of all 27 EU countries.
"Russia's action in Ukraine speak for themselves," said a spokesperson from the European Commission, citing a long list of crimes. "These are not actions of a civilised state, but belong to the arsenal of terror. So essentially Russia is designating itself in the eyes of the international community already."
This is not the first time a parliament in Europe labels Russia a state sponsor of terrorism. National chambers in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and the Czech Republic had previously voted to apply similar designations.
"We note that some countries designated Russia as a terrorist state," the Commission spokesperson added. "However the EU does not have a legal framework in place to designate a third country as 'state sponsor of terrorism'."
Besides the new legal framework, the European Parliament demands a "comprehensive" international isolation of Russia, a further reduction of diplomatic relations and a new round of EU sanctions.
"Contacts with its official representatives at all levels (should) be kept to the absolute minimum necessary," lawmakers said.
The resolution comes days after Russia launched a new barrage of attacks against Ukraine's key infrastructure, raising fears of a massive exodus of people ahead of the winter season.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy welcomed the text and said Russia must be "held accountable in order to end its long-standing policy of terrorism in Ukraine and across the globe."
Hungary to approve Sweden, and Finland joining NATO.
(Bloomberg) -- Hungary’s parliament will approve Finland’s and Sweden’s bids to join NATO at the legislature’s first session next year, Prime Minister Viktor Orban said.
Hungary supports the Nordic countries’ accession, Orban told reporters at a briefing in Slovakia on Thursday, where he came under pressure to speed up the approval from his central European counterparts. Earlier, Hungarian officials had pledged to give their support by year end.
Hungary is the only country besides Turkey that has yet to approve NATO enlargement, which has gained urgency since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine earlier this year.
This is pretty grim. Russia is targeting Ukraine's energy grid with missile strikes every 2-3 weeks (the amount of time required to repair it). There might be some harsh times during winter for Ukrainian citizens but hopefully they'll get more air defense systems now as it became somewhat of an international issue now (Moldova is also out of power since it's being supplied by Ukraine).
Putin's aim with these terror attacks is to disunite Europe, is it not? Or does he think this will weaken Ukraine to the point that their army loses potency?
On November 25 2022 07:14 Magic Powers wrote: Putin's aim with these terror attacks is to disunite Europe, is it not? Or does he think this will weaken Ukraine to the point that their army loses potency?
Making Ukraine suffer is not going to disunite Europe. No one here suffers if Ukraine's power grid is out.
He is out of options and trying terror tactics to force Ukraine into submission, but throughout history terrorising a foreign country has very rarely, if ever, led to them surrendering.
Russia can't turn the tide in the actual fight, so they are doing the only thing they can, no matter how useless it is.
I think the plan is to make life in Ukraine as shitty as possible in the short term. They're hoping people will be tired of war and therefore more willing to accept a ceasefire despite the occupation of southern and eastern regions.
Yeah, I guess I'm also starting to think this is Putin's mindset. It's no longer about having a concrete plan with reasonable chances, but simply about persisting until the bitter end. He knows what Zelensky has said, and he has no reason to doubt his words. Putin is probably just praying that Zelensky finds reason to change course eventually, whenever that might be.
But I think you guys might be a little surprised to learn how many Europeans want Ukraine to make a greater effort with diplomatic talks even if it means surrendering (a lot of) land. We can't find them in this thread because that'd be too embarrassing for them, or perhaps they'd get banned.
Russian Duma (lower parliament) accepted the state budget for 2023 in the first hearing. http://duma.gov.ru/news/55593/ What matters for the war is: Defence spending was increased to 4,98 trillion rubles (around 83 billion USD, I'm using current exchange rates) from 3,5 trillion (around 58 billion USD) from the last year (though there is info that actual spending in this year is around 4,7 trillion (78,2 billion USD)). National security and law enforcement (police, Rosgvardia, FSB, border guards etc.) - increased to 4,417 trillion rubles (73,6 billion USD) from 2,82 trillion rubles (46,8 billion USD). 42% spending growth for the defence budget and 57% for the security budget. Defence budget is 17% and national security budget is 15% of the overall state budget
According to IMF (pointing this out cause different organizations give different GDP value), Russian GDP by IMF for 2022 is 2 133 billion USD, with expected 2,3% recession in 2023, so GDP figures will be around 2 080 billion USD. https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/83755/ So the combined defence and security/law enforcement spending (160 billion USD) will amount to around 7,7% of 2023 GDP. Bear in mind, that on the one hand, not all of it goes for the war effort (general law enforcement spending is out of it, for example), but on the other there are a lot of spendings connected with the military not included here (a bunch of RnD projects are funded through the Ministry of trade and industry, for example). Sources on 2022 numbers Defence http://duma.gov.ru/news/52595/ Security https://tass.ru/ekonomika/12466533
TLDR: From these figures I believe that our government doesn't have plans to back down in the near future, but on the other hand it doesn't enter "total war" mode just yet.
On November 25 2022 07:14 Magic Powers wrote: Putin's aim with these terror attacks is to disunite Europe, is it not? Or does he think this will weaken Ukraine to the point that their army loses potency?
He is out of options and trying terror tactics to force Ukraine into submission, but throughout history terrorising a foreign country has very rarely, if ever, led to them surrendering.
Operations Linebacker (though North Vietnam did shit on the deal as soon as US had withdrawn completely) and Allied Force. So it depends on the scale of destruction and foreign support for those bombing/being bombed.
On November 25 2022 06:46 maybenexttime wrote: We should give the Ukrainians whatever they need. WTF are we doing?!
One part of the reason is - NATO doesn't have huge quantities of AA systems, since it generally relied on (mostly US) air supremacy to control the sky. So it may have quality, but not the numbers (especially considering the reluctance of NATO countries give up huge stocks of stuff from active service). Though at least Patriots of older models should be in huge surplus. I wonder if there may be issues of implementing proper command and control network within AFU Air Defence force for them for the time being, or there are other issues.
Well, Polish Defense Minister wanted Germans to send Patriot systems intended for Poland into Ukraine instead (not going to happen because Germany doesn't want those systems stationed outside of NATO).
If Ukraine won't get more/better air defense systems and Russia continues the bombardment (note that about 80% of the missiles are being shot down) the collapse of Ukraine's energy grid is inevitable, splitting it apart into isolated pockets and leaving large numbers of people without electricity or water for weeks. Not a good thing during winter, if there's snow then water shortage might not be such a big deal (assuming constant snowing) but lack of electricity certainly will be.
Demons run when a good man goes to war. 'Night will fall and drown the sun when a good man goes to war. 'Friendship dies and true love lies. 'Night will fall and the dark will rise 'when a good man goes to war.' 'Demons run but count the cost 'the battle's won but the child is lost.
On November 25 2022 08:31 Manit0u wrote: Well, Polish Defense Minister wanted Germans to send Patriot systems intended for Poland into Ukraine instead (not going to happen because Germany doesn't want those systems stationed outside of NATO).
If Ukraine won't get more/better air defense systems and Russia continues the bombardment (note that about 80% of the missiles are being shot down) the collapse of Ukraine's energy grid is inevitable, splitting it apart into isolated pockets and leaving large numbers of people without electricity or water for weeks. Not a good thing during winter, if there's snow then water shortage might not be such a big deal (assuming constant snowing) but lack of electricity certainly will be.
Patriot systems won't really solve the issue though. Right now Ukraine is being hit with an overwhelming amount of cheap weapons and has to defend against them with fewer, more expensive ones. Sure, they'll help, but they won't really "fix" things.
The CSTO died when Armenia asked Russia for help against Azerbaijan a few months ago and Russia refused to send in troops. I'm surprised it appears to be officially dying though.
EDIT: Russia did help negotiate the subsequent cease fire between the 2 nations, but they did not deliver when called for military assistance
On November 25 2022 10:52 StasisField wrote: The CSTO died when Armenia asked Russia for help against Azerbaijan a few months ago and Russia refused to send in troops. I'm surprised it appears to be officially dying though.
EDIT: Russia did help negotiate the subsequent cease fire between the 2 nations, but they did not deliver when called for military assistance
To be fair, Armenia asked all CSTO members for help. I didn't see Kazakh jets bombing Baku either. Not that it makes Russian refusal any better though. But yeah, CSTO is not up for the modern political landscape of the area. Armenia's position is the most precarious, since they have weak economy, half of their neighbours are hostile (Azerbaijan and Turkey), other two are neutral (Iran is kinda supportive, but it's mostly to reduce the growth of Tukrish-Azerbijani influence in the region). Turks are also expanding their influence into Central Asia, increasing economical and cultural cooperation, and bringing up the idea of "united Turkic peoples". So something like Turkey-Azerbaijan-Turkmenistan-Uzbekistan alliance could form in the future. Kazakhstan is trying to balance itself between China, Russia and US, keeping communication with all of them, but not aligning to anyone. For Russia closest allies are Belarus, Iran and Syria at the moment (especially considering that with latter two Russia fought the war in Syria together), so any kind of defence alliance, formal or not, most likely be based on those 4 countries.
On November 25 2022 07:14 Magic Powers wrote: Putin's aim with these terror attacks is to disunite Europe, is it not? Or does he think this will weaken Ukraine to the point that their army loses potency?
Leaving Ukrainian state powerless certainly helps but the aim seems to be collapse the civilian morale or a new migration crisis. Syria proved that bombing campaigns can work wonders in destroying long term resistance. The only question beeing if Russia has enough missiles and time.
EPT
