NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.
Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source.
A bit offtopic from current discussion. AFRF seem to finally recognize importance of the drones. This thing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ZALA_Lancet seem to enter the army on the front en masse, with a number of successful confirmed hits on different AFU military vehicles closing to hundred since mid-October (would be able to give proof on that as soon as the guy from one Russian OSINT site would fix his spreadsheet on the matter). XXI century is surely becoming the age of drone warfare. I wonder what countermeasures would be implemented by the armies of the world against stuff like that. Active protection systems would protect tanks, but you can't stick a "Trophy" on every artillery piece, radar or simple ammo truck.
Also, interesting map based on the videos of Lancet use near Vuhledar, which allows to kinda estimate the depth and structure of Ukrainian defence line in the area (it's in Russian, but vehicle markings should be understandable. TAHK - means "TANK" in Russian") + Show Spoiler +
Drones seem to be traveling in the same path as planes did in the last generation. In the beginning they were basically junk throwing grenades or shooting a machine gun out the back of a propeller Bi-plane. British camels showed at least some rudimentary capabilities but that was a good 15 years after America invented what we know as an airplane. Plane production picked up a lot in between the wars and by the end of ww2 and going into the Korean war fighterbombers (much like camels really) rendered tanks and anything mobile just an expensive target.
America invented the modern loitering drone and now a bunch of junk is exploiting the lack of countermeasures developed for them. From every example I've seen they are all basically prop-driven and would, forgive me if I haven't seen one, fall out of the sky if an arrow from a bow goes through them. The answer to cheap, technologically advancing drones, is a more economical and effective countermeasure. Not a lot is needed to take down these loitering drones. Micromissles with less than a pound of explosives could be extremely effective or just a micro missile without any explosives at all.
Raytheon and the world has been making missiles and targeting systems that need to work in mach4 environments, something that's going a few hundred miles per hour isn't something that will be hard to do. Then its just another thing to hand out to units at the platoon level. Then its just another thing that bounces between being more expensive or less effective.
On November 17 2022 08:06 Gorsameth wrote: Having a Ukrainian push the button to launch US weapons is more then just appearances. Its also an amazing way to keep US soldiers from actually running any risk.
Which is a huge deal to American's and their public support of the war.
Also, the Ukrainians are competent and motivated. Foreign involvement in tactical use of the weapons could easily make things wose. It is their country after all.
On November 17 2022 12:36 Sermokala wrote: Drones seem to be traveling in the same path as planes did in the last generation. In the beginning they were basically junk throwing grenades or shooting a machine gun out the back of a propeller Bi-plane. British camels showed at least some rudimentary capabilities but that was a good 15 years after America invented what we know as an airplane. Plane production picked up a lot in between the wars and by the end of ww2 and going into the Korean war fighterbombers (much like camels really) rendered tanks and anything mobile just an expensive target.
America invented the modern loitering drone and now a bunch of junk is exploiting the lack of countermeasures developed for them. From every example I've seen they are all basically prop-driven and would, forgive me if I haven't seen one, fall out of the sky if an arrow from a bow goes through them. The answer to cheap, technologically advancing drones, is a more economical and effective countermeasure. Not a lot is needed to take down these loitering drones. Micromissles with less than a pound of explosives could be extremely effective or just a micro missile without any explosives at all.
Raytheon and the world has been making missiles and targeting systems that need to work in mach4 environments, something that's going a few hundred miles per hour isn't something that will be hard to do. Then its just another thing to hand out to units at the platoon level. Then its just another thing that bounces between being more expensive or less effective.
Pretty sure in the coming years lasers will be the answer to cheap drone attacks. Rheinmetall already has a few working systems for different targets. Small kamikaze or payload drones can be shot down reliably up to 10km distance. You only need vision and power
Germany has offered to send a combat jets to help Patrol over Poland. Bizarre that they wouldn't be based in Poland but would return to Germany after patrols, kind of makes it a moot point if something occurs.
Germany has offered to dispatch fighter planes to boost air patrol over Poland in the aftermath of a missile explosion that killed two people, a Defense Ministry spokesman said Wednesday.
"This can happen tomorrow if Poland wants it," Christian Thiels said at the weekly government news conference in Berlin.
He said the move would be aimed at strengthening air policing with Eurofighter aircraft of the German air force.
"The jets do not have to be relocated to Poland for this. The patrols can be carried out from German air force bases," said the ministry spokesman, adding that the German air force had already done this in July.
Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht will discuss this issue with her Polish counterpart later in the day, Thiels said.
According to the spokesman, it is not yet clear how many German Eurofighters would be involved in the air patrol over Poland, saying this has to be discussed with the Polish side.
On Tuesday, a missile strike killed two people on a farm near the western border with Ukraine, however Polish President Andrzej Duda stressed there are no signs of an intentional attack.
Stumbled upon this channel recently, it gives a pretty good view on the life of Russia under sanctions. This video in particular is about living in an area similar to mine, so you can compare it with what I was writing about.
Also about possible scale of Wagner mobilization: Number of convicts in Russian prisons during September-October period reduced by 23 000, according to Russian Penitentiary Service data. https://t.me/mediazzzona/10125 Of course some people simply had their terms ended, but the overall drop is too drastic for that, bigger than even Covid one.
On November 19 2022 18:58 Ardias wrote: Stumbled upon this channel recently, it gives a pretty good view on the life of Russia under sanctions. This video in particular is about living in an area similar to mine, so you can compare it with what I was writing about. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0kUSskRhdSs
Doesn't seem all that bad, probably not even that different from what we have here (also 10+% inflation). Did hurt to see that geezer at the end ask Europeans why they are shooting themselves in their foot...maybe it's you guys bombing your civilian neighbours? Also, the resignation they show towards the mobilisation is iconic, these people are too used to 'it is what it is'. That's what generations of absolute government power does to you.
It's obvious propaganda. The "report" is showing one family that's barely getting by while spending several times less on food than before (resulting in much lower living standards like worse nutrition and such things). Their home looks fabulous for a low income family, so they were probably not in fact lower class to begin with and they probably had a much bigger budget before the war. Over here in Austria I've been talking to people and they're scrambling because of price inflation, mainly utility. Many have to cut spending or move to a more affordable location. It's simply not possible that Russians aren't feeling the same heat.
On November 20 2022 18:39 Magic Powers wrote: It's obvious propaganda. The "report" is showing one family that's barely getting by while spending several times less on food than before (resulting in much lower living standards like worse nutrition and such things). Their home looks fabulous for a low income family, so they were probably not in fact lower class to begin with and they probably had a much bigger budget before the war. Over here in Austria I've been talking to people and they're scrambling because of price inflation, mainly utility. Many have to cut spending or move to a more affordable location. It's simply not possible that Russians aren't feeling the same heat.
The propaganda is from both sides, but maybe asking Russian posters here how much their food and energy bills have changed could give a better view.
With the clueless EU banning Russian crude products from December and refined products from February hopefully they've got a plan to replace it.An additional 1.1 million barrels a day on top of the 1.1 m/d they've already dropped.Additional 1m/d refined fuels from February.
EU countries, by October, had already reduced crude imports from Russia by 1.1mn b/d and diesel imports by 50,000 b/d. When the embargoes on imports of Russian crude and refined products come into full force in December and February, respectively, Europe will have to replace an additional 1.1mn b/d of crude and 1mn b/d a diesel, naphtha and fuel oil, according to the IEA’s calculations.
On November 20 2022 18:39 Magic Powers wrote: It's obvious propaganda. The "report" is showing one family that's barely getting by while spending several times less on food than before (resulting in much lower living standards like worse nutrition and such things). Their home looks fabulous for a low income family, so they were probably not in fact lower class to begin with and they probably had a much bigger budget before the war. Over here in Austria I've been talking to people and they're scrambling because of price inflation, mainly utility. Many have to cut spending or move to a more affordable location. It's simply not possible that Russians aren't feeling the same heat.
The propaganda is from both sides, but maybe asking Russian posters here how much their food and energy bills have changed could give a better view.
With the clueless EU banning Russian crude products from December and refined products from February hopefully they've got a plan to replace it.An additional 1.1 million barrels a day on top of the 1.1 m/d they've already dropped.Additional 1m/d refined fuels from February.
EU countries, by October, had already reduced crude imports from Russia by 1.1mn b/d and diesel imports by 50,000 b/d. When the embargoes on imports of Russian crude and refined products come into full force in December and February, respectively, Europe will have to replace an additional 1.1mn b/d of crude and 1mn b/d a diesel, naphtha and fuel oil, according to the IEA’s calculations.
I'd say that 1700 USD/month (the salary of the 1st guy in the interview) is above average in Yekaterinburg (by ~35-45%), so definitely not the lowest class.
Price of energy didn't change from 2021; prices of food (in Moscow) - dairy, juices and canned food went up significantly (by 20-30%), while most of the other stuff (like meat, fresh fruits\veggies, cereal) didn't change at all. Also, looks like realty prices are going down significantly this year
On November 20 2022 18:39 Magic Powers wrote: It's obvious propaganda. The "report" is showing one family that's barely getting by while spending several times less on food than before (resulting in much lower living standards like worse nutrition and such things). Their home looks fabulous for a low income family, so they were probably not in fact lower class to begin with and they probably had a much bigger budget before the war. Over here in Austria I've been talking to people and they're scrambling because of price inflation, mainly utility. Many have to cut spending or move to a more affordable location. It's simply not possible that Russians aren't feeling the same heat.
The propaganda is from both sides, but maybe asking Russian posters here how much their food and energy bills have changed could give a better view.
With the clueless EU banning Russian crude products from December and refined products from February hopefully they've got a plan to replace it.An additional 1.1 million barrels a day on top of the 1.1 m/d they've already dropped.Additional 1m/d refined fuels from February.
EU countries, by October, had already reduced crude imports from Russia by 1.1mn b/d and diesel imports by 50,000 b/d. When the embargoes on imports of Russian crude and refined products come into full force in December and February, respectively, Europe will have to replace an additional 1.1mn b/d of crude and 1mn b/d a diesel, naphtha and fuel oil, according to the IEA’s calculations.
I'd say that 1700 USD/month (the salary of the 1st guy in the interview) is above average in Yekaterinburg (by ~35-45%), so definitely not the lowest class.
Price of energy didn't change from 2021; prices of food (in Moscow) - dairy, juices and canned food went up significantly (by 20-30%), while most of the other stuff (like meat, fresh fruits\veggies, cereal) didn't change at all. Also, looks like realty prices are going down significantly this year
Russia is an exporter of both energy and food. Thus those would not meaningfully be impacted in most cases. The factory talking about spare parts, loss of sales etc is where the sanctions are targetted since there is no way to target the average person. If that is succeeding or not is a different question.
On November 20 2022 18:39 Magic Powers wrote: Over here in Austria I've been talking to people and they're scrambling because of price inflation, mainly utility. Many have to cut spending or move to a more affordable location. It's simply not possible that Russians aren't feeling the same heat.
They are feeling different heat. Their utility bills will not change much but getting a decent car or a reasonable mortgage will become a major problem.
They may also lose easy access to certain goods. I really hope that's going to happen, because it would be a clear, tangible effect of their government's actions. Otherwise they might not notice a significant difference since the invasion and accept the new reality like the boiling frog.
On November 20 2022 18:39 Magic Powers wrote: Over here in Austria I've been talking to people and they're scrambling because of price inflation, mainly utility. Many have to cut spending or move to a more affordable location. It's simply not possible that Russians aren't feeling the same heat.
They are feeling different heat. Their utility bills will not change much but getting a decent car or a reasonable mortgage will become a major problem.
Each country has unique issues. Part of it is that the general instability has caused capital flight to the dollar and that the strong dollar has devastated certain imports for countries. The US is an energy exporter and both earns and pays for energy in dollars so the impact of energy price increases on the US consumer is far lower than, for example, the German consumer. They’re earning in euros but paying in dollars so they’re hit with both higher prices and the strengthening dollar. Then there are Brits whose currency imploded due to the Tory party collapsing so they have higher energy prices, a strong dollar, and a weak pound to contend with.
There’s no “one size fits all” answer to these things. Russia’s balance of trade looks great right now because of exports without imports but that’s a very misleading picture, it’s not that they make everything they need internally and don’t require imports, it’s that nobody will sell them the imports they desperately need. Russian labour, denominated in rubles, is essentially worthless globally but their status as a gas station props the currency up. That makes it very cheap for Russians to buy anything made by Russians, there is no competition. As long as the entire supply chain is domestic Russians will not see much impact on their prices, the ruble has not lost purchasing power against itself.
Russia’s problem is that they spent the last 20 years suckling at the German teat while Soviet era manufacturing rotted. It wasn’t efficient for Russians to make their own luxury cars when Germany exists and was buying Russian gas, it was far cheaper and easier to simply let the Germans give them cars in exchange for the gas coming out of the ground. I planned to say that the Russian economy is regressing 30 years to the Soviet autarkic model but it’s actually worse than that. It has lost the industrial capabilities of the late Soviet Union, it’s probably fairer to say that it is regressing 90 years. And just as the Soviet Union was insulated from the impacts of the Great Depression so it is largely insulated from this shutdown of trade. Not because it was prosperous then and prosperous now but because now, like then, it’s labour was unsaleable anyway.
On November 21 2022 02:09 KwarK wrote:Russia’s balance of trade looks great right now because of exports without imports but that’s a very misleading picture, it’s not that they make everything they need internally and don’t require imports, it’s that nobody will sell them the imports they desperately need.
That's a brave prediction, even Iranian drones are made up of western components despite all the sanctioning. The prices for western technology is sure to increase but as long as Russia sells anything in demand (and I think we can agree that gas and oil are very much that) there will always be a way. I think currently the re-exports are reaching Russia from Kazakhstan. But if not there then plenty of countries will jump at the opportunity.
On November 21 2022 02:09 KwarK wrote:Russia’s balance of trade looks great right now because of exports without imports but that’s a very misleading picture, it’s not that they make everything they need internally and don’t require imports, it’s that nobody will sell them the imports they desperately need.
That's a brave prediction, even Iranian drones are made up of western components despite all the sanctioning. The prices for western technology is sure to increase but as long as Russia sells anything in demand (and I think we can agree that gas and oil are very much that) there will always be a way. I think currently the re-exports are reaching Russia from Kazakhstan. But if not there then plenty of countries will jump at the opportunity.
Sure, it's not a perfect barrier. If I gave the impression that I thought it was then I apologize. But you can see the accumulation of capital in their balance of trade, they are buying considerably less than they used to and it's not because they're suddenly self sufficient.
EPT![[image loading]](https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/efb54623c6974dd1e4f1873cebdef3929b34b65513bbc1e3c60b38933b267eb1.jpg)
