EPTRusso-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 175
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zatic
Zurich15366 Posts
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Artesimo
Germany628 Posts
On July 27 2022 19:31 Sbrubbles wrote: I dunno, few things can galvanize popular opinion against a foreign nation more than a direct bullying attempt like that. And few things erode moral resolve more and quicker than facing real consequences of taking a stand. This really can swing either way, so all we can do is wait and see how things actually play out. On July 27 2022 19:44 zatic wrote: Also people won't freeze to death. It just doesn't get that cold in Germany that there would be threat to life even with gas turned off completely. Especially with electricity still running. I think that is only true for most of germany, but it should be an issue that can be mitigated. Some regions still have cold winters(parts of east germany had temperatures around -20°C last year) , and if you live in the very rural areas, insulation is pretty shit. I know, because I grew up in a 'historic' building for most of my childhood (timbered house, single glass windows that you can't switch out for better insulated ones because of historic preservation and the fact that the window frame is lacking any kind of symmetry, the windows/windowframes themself are not really airtight etc). Incidently, the electrical grid in those rural areas is also more likely not to be up for everyone suddenly getting some electric heaters out. But its definitely a problem that can be mitigated, even if gas became hella scarce. Regions like that would simply need more allocated per household than others, and these harsh temperature drops are only for a few days afaik. So TLDR: you def can freeze to death in germany in winter, but I don't think it is a problem that is so widespread that it could not be solved through some special rationing of gas/heating oil for those regions in case of a scarcity. The rise in energy costs is more of a problem since it affects everyone, but there we also have to see how bad it will really be. | ||
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Deleted User 137586
7859 Posts
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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Harris1st
Germany7459 Posts
On July 27 2022 21:23 Ghanburighan wrote: I repeat, RU won't turn off gas to big EU countries, it's suicide for them while I posted a study about a month ago showing the actual reduction percentage required to weather such a situation using existing reserves. Well, they did slow it down to a crawl though. After 10 days of a complete cutoff for "maintenance reasons", Nordstream 1 operates now at only 20% capacity for other "maintenance reasons" | ||
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DropBear
Australia4442 Posts
On July 27 2022 21:23 Ghanburighan wrote: I repeat, RU won't turn off gas to big EU countries, it's suicide for them while I posted a study about a month ago showing the actual reduction percentage required to weather such a situation using existing reserves. You are assuming rational behaviour | ||
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Sermokala
United States14220 Posts
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Lmui
Canada6223 Posts
On July 27 2022 21:48 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: Eh... still usable... maybe. https://twitter.com/loogunda/status/1552206120873254912 It's not vehicle passable in the current state, but the damage doesn't look severe enough at first glance that you can't just lay a pontoon bridge across the holes and continue to use it for lighter traffic at a reduced rate. It's going to be a bottleneck in/out for sure. | ||
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Deleted User 137586
7859 Posts
Interestingly, no. I assume self preservation. That's an animal behavior I'm happy to ascribe Putin and the Sikoviki in power. | ||
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Neneu
Norway492 Posts
On July 28 2022 00:45 Lmui wrote: It's not vehicle passable in the current state, but the damage doesn't look severe enough at first glance that you can't just lay a pontoon bridge across the holes and continue to use it for lighter traffic at a reduced rate. It's going to be a bottleneck in/out for sure. That's an enormous damage to the bridge which can't be repaired within a month or two. You need to tear certain parts of the segment down and rebuild it. If you lay a pontoon bridge on it and drive vehicles over it, you risk greater damage to the a larger part of the bridge and likely a collapse of the damaged segment. Meaning, you do not want to drive vehicles over it if you plan to keep the city. | ||
Falling
Canada11607 Posts
However, I wonder if you could actually bring heavy equipment across. If it's still passable for foot traffic, it's not necessarily a bad thing. | ||
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Sermokala
United States14220 Posts
On July 28 2022 01:29 Ghanburighan wrote: Interestingly, no. I assume self preservation. That's an animal behavior I'm happy to ascribe Putin and the Sikoviki in power. There is no way they survive if they are driven back to pre 2014 borders. They need to take the donbass and southern Ukraine to do this. If they don't take southern Ukraine they lose crimea if they don't take the donbass they don't have anything to show for everything they spent in this war and all the damage they've suffered so far. | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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Ardias
Russian Federation618 Posts
Lindsey Snell's interview with a bunch of foreign volunteers in Ukraine. | ||
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Manit0u
Poland17872 Posts
In any case, he had plenty of info you won't see in the mainstream media. One of the important things he mentioned is that Ukrainian morale is super high and it's mostly thanks to Russians themselves. As news of atrocities committed against civilians spread it's really galvanizing people. He was also assigned to the drone units for some time and I thought it was really interesting. Most of them aren't soldiers but IT people and all of the civilian drones were adapted for warfare. They're using 3D printers to create bomb hatches for drones etc. They're using everything. The smallest drone that can carry bombs (mortar shells) is Mavic 3 but they're also using large agro drones and they're fitting everything to them: grenades, mortar shells, RPG missiles, mines. Due to all the electronic interference (2-4 drones are destroyed/caputred every week for each drone squad) the operational range for drones is about 1-1.5km which doesn't really make it a safe job, especially that it has a high chance of disclosing your position to the enemy and Russians have no qualms over firing a full Grad salvo to nail a single drone operator. Also introducing completely new warfare tactics like drone mining, where they're using 3D printers to create everyday objects that are disguised mines and they're dropping them from drones near enemy positions. He was also speculating that Russia is trying to use terror tactics by using artillery indiscriminately, often targeting civilians in hopes of people overthrowing their government out of fear. In any case, this is having the exactly opposite effect of people supporting Zelensky even more and having higher desire to fight the aggressor. He had a rather sad appeal to everyone gathering equipment to send to Ukraine. You need to find someone who'll get it to the front or get it to the front yourself. If you leave the eq at the border it'll most likely never reach the front. Corruption is creeping back up and most of the new equipment is being held in western Ukraine instead of being sent to the front. It's sad to see a territorial defense unit be sent to the front from the west, they arrive with top notch gear all around but have 0 skill or experience so it all goes to waste and they all are very likely to die. Meanwhile veterans at the frontlines in Donbas are fighting using gear from WW2... Speaking about the skill comparison between the armies it's roughly equal. Russians are dreadfully underskilled, only select few units have any idea what they're doing, use proper tactics etc. Ukrainian forces are a patchwork, you have veterans who know how to act and what to do but also a lot of regular joes who are just as unskilled as the Russians. Russian intelligence did a really great job of using clueless westerners though. They found Canadians, Americans etc. who wanted to take part in the war on the Ukrainian side, got them into Ukraine, gave them phones and told them to record TikTok videos and take pictures to boost morale. So, those guys were happily going about, taking pics of military complexes and such that Russians later used for artillery guidance. And info for veterans trying to join the conflict. Something that comes as a shock to many vets who were in Afghanistan, Iraq etc. is that this situation is completely different. Now you will be in the position the Taliban were in. You're sitting in some hole while artillery and helicopters are bombarding all around you. HIMARS effectiveness confirmed. 14 supply depots destroyed (the one near Kahovka was burning and exploding for 3 days after it was hit) which has a direct effect on Russian artillery strikes. People in Slovyansk rejoice because bombardment ceased and they were being fired upon indiscriminately (just hitting the city at random, not aiming at military targets). | ||
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WombaT
Northern Ireland27478 Posts
On July 28 2022 20:44 Manit0u wrote: Just watched an interview with a guy from Poland who was fighting in Ukraine since February. In the beginning he wasn't really on the front lines, he was a private contractor tasked with rescuing families of some people. He joined actual fighting in May. In any case, he had plenty of info you won't see in the mainstream media. One of the important things he mentioned is that Ukrainian morale is super high and it's mostly thanks to Russians themselves. As news of atrocities committed against civilians spread it's really galvanizing people. He was also assigned to the drone units for some time and I thought it was really interesting. Most of them aren't soldiers but IT people and all of the civilian drones were adapted for warfare. They're using 3D printers to create bomb hatches for drones etc. They're using everything. The smallest drone that can carry bombs (mortar shells) is Mavic 3 but they're also using large agro drones and they're fitting everything to them: grenades, mortar shells, RPG missiles, mines. Due to all the electronic interference (2-4 drones are destroyed/caputred every week for each drone squad) the operational range for drones is about 1-1.5km which doesn't really make it a safe job, especially that it has a high chance of disclosing your position to the enemy and Russians have no qualms over firing a full Grad salvo to nail a single drone operator. Also introducing completely new warfare tactics like drone mining, where they're using 3D printers to create everyday objects that are disguised mines and they're dropping them from drones near enemy positions. He was also speculating that Russia is trying to use terror tactics by using artillery indiscriminately, often targeting civilians in hopes of people overthrowing their government out of fear. In any case, this is having the exactly opposite effect of people supporting Zelensky even more and having higher desire to fight the aggressor. He had a rather sad appeal to everyone gathering equipment to send to Ukraine. You need to find someone who'll get it to the front or get it to the front yourself. If you leave the eq at the border it'll most likely never reach the front. Corruption is creeping back up and most of the new equipment is being held in western Ukraine instead of being sent to the front. It's sad to see a territorial defense unit be sent to the front from the west, they arrive with top notch gear all around but have 0 skill or experience so it all goes to waste and they all are very likely to die. Meanwhile veterans at the frontlines in Donbas are fighting using gear from WW2... Speaking about the skill comparison between the armies it's roughly equal. Russians are dreadfully underskilled, only select few units have any idea what they're doing, use proper tactics etc. Ukrainian forces are a patchwork, you have veterans who know how to act and what to do but also a lot of regular joes who are just as unskilled as the Russians. Russian intelligence did a really great job of using clueless westerners though. They found Canadians, Americans etc. who wanted to take part in the war on the Ukrainian side, got them into Ukraine, gave them phones and told them to record TikTok videos and take pictures to boost morale. So, those guys were happily going about, taking pics of military complexes and such that Russians later used for artillery guidance. And info for veterans trying to join the conflict. Something that comes as a shock to many vets who were in Afghanistan, Iraq etc. is that this situation is completely different. Now you will be in the position the Taliban were in. You're sitting in some hole while artillery and helicopters are bombarding all around you. HIMARS effectiveness confirmed. 14 supply depots destroyed (the one near Kahovka was burning and exploding for 3 days after it was hit) which has a direct effect on Russian artillery strikes. People in Slovyansk rejoice because bombardment ceased and they were being fired upon indiscriminately (just hitting the city at random, not aiming at military targets). Interesting info, cheers. | ||
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Magic Powers
Austria4478 Posts
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KwarK
United States44448 Posts
On July 28 2022 22:03 Magic Powers wrote: Very interesting indeed. Who would've thought the nerds would be among the most fearsome forces in a war. And Russia tricking foreign fighters into revealing intel also reads like it'd come straight from a novel. I thought the tiktok video Intel leak was itself a psyops, they hit something they were going to hit anyway then blamed the casualties on stupid foreigners making videos. Trying to turn the Ukrainians against foreign fighters. As this is a Ukrainian’s take on what is going on the tiktok video targeting could simultaneously be what he believes and a Russian psyops. | ||
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Manit0u
Poland17872 Posts
On July 28 2022 22:34 KwarK wrote: I thought the tiktok video Intel leak was itself a psyops, they hit something they were going to hit anyway then blamed the casualties on stupid foreigners making videos. Trying to turn the Ukrainians against foreign fighters. As this is a Ukrainian’s take on what is going on the tiktok video targeting could simultaneously be what he believes and a Russian psyops. Well, he also mentioned that the state of Ukrainian intelligence is not the best. They were kinda heavily infiltrated and compromised at the start (seeing how the head of intelligence fled to Russia 2 days after the war started). US and UK intelligence is a very big help for Ukraine. Another big problem they're facing is communication problems among their own troops. Some of it is due to all the counter-measures (thankfully Starlink is still working) but a lot of it has to do with distrust between different armed branches (of which UA has like 7-8) and post-soviet leadership structure where vital mission info is not passed down the line so troops go onto missions without knowing where or what for and if their commander dies they have no reference point. Plenty of cases of friendly fire etc. Supposedly it's slowly getting better but those are deep systemic issues that'll take time to resolve. Great example was when the dude was inspecting some trench line. He notices another trench line 100m to the side and asks the local commander who's in those trenches over there (they were wearing different uniforms) and the commander responds with "I don't know. Our border patrol, I think" to which the guy goes "You _think_?!" | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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