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If even close to accurate that would mean the Russians have lost over half of the soldiers in the original invasion force.
The Biden administration is quietly circulating an estimate of Russian casualties in Ukraine that far exceeds earlier U.S. estimates, telling lawmakers that more than 75,000 members of Russia’s forces had been killed or injured.
A legislator who recently visited Ukraine confirmed on Wednesday that the estimate had emerged in a briefing from the State Department, Department of Defense, the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Earlier in the day, a reporter for CNN tweeted the estimate and said it had been shared in a classified House briefing.
Casualty estimates for militaries on both sides are highly speculative, U.S. officials have said. They often give ranges rather than specific numbers, though just last week, the C.I.A. director estimated that 60,000 Russian soldiers had been killed or injured. And some estimates have gone as high as 80,000 casualties.
If the Biden administration’s current estimate is accurate, it represents a staggering toll. Estimates of the number of Russian forces in Ukraine ranged as high as 150,000 in the spring, meaning that roughly half could be out of action.
Pentagon officials have said that losing just 10 percent of a military force, including both those killed and injured, renders a single unit unable to carry out combat-related tasks. Such losses also affect the morale and cohesion of a military unit.
Throughout the war, Ukraine and Russia have shielded their casualty numbers, keeping one another, and the rest of the world, guessing about the depth of their losses. Both sides have an interest in underreporting battlefield losses: Russia to preserve its domestic narrative of success, and Ukraine to maintain morale. Troop deaths and injuries have been mounting, given that fierce fighting has endured for months, but the Biden administration’s estimate suggests just how high casualties may have gone on Russia’s side.
More recently, a senior adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine said that Ukrainian military casualties were now 100 to 200 per day.
Just weeks into the war, American officials offered what they said was a conservative estimate of more than 7,000 Russian war deaths so far — more than the number of American troops killed over 20 years in Iraq and Afghanistan combined. Russia followed with a far smaller count, saying on March 25 that 1,351 of its troops had been killed. And Mr. Zelensky said that month that an estimated 1,300 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed.
In May, Ukraine claimed that 30,000 Russian soldiers had been killed since the invasion began in February, a number impossible to independently verify. In April, a British intelligence assessment put the estimated Russian losses at half that number.
Mr. Zelensky made a new claim in his nightly address on Tuesday, saying that almost 40,000 Russian soldiers had been killed since the start of the war, with tens of thousands more injured. That claim comports, in broad terms, with the U.S. estimate of about 75,000 Russian total casualties.
I wonder if Ukrainian reports are only KIA or counting all OOA and what the ratio would be for that in this conflict. Past war data has a pretty wide spread of dead/wounded at ratios ranging from 1:1 to 1:7. Those most commonly fall into 1:3-1:4 range so given that we can make some assumptions. For the US number at 75k OOA total that would be around 20k dead and 55k wounded. If Ukrainian numbers are correct it would be 10k dead and 30k wounded if the number given is OOA, if it's KIA that would give 40k dead and 120k wounded for a total of 160k OOA (for a 1:3 ratio, if it's 1:1 it'd be 80k total which is pretty close to US estimate which would put it at 37.5k dead and the same number of wounded).
Rainer Saks seems to confirm these numbers via a different route. He also has a great deal more to say regarding RU playing with gas and what's happening near Bakhmut and Kherson. Pain to translate on the phone so google translate to the rescue.
July 28 summary of the previous day - the Russian units have concentrated all their strength on the offensive in Northern Donbass, elsewhere they are rather on the defensive. The initiative is apparently being tried to be kept up with missile attacks on Ukrainian cities. - At Harkiv, the Russian units have not been able to organize reconnaissance battles for a few days now. - At Izjum, the Russian units tried to push in a bit stronger yesterday, but they failed completely. Information about a small counterattack by Ukrainian units spread yesterday, but this has not been confirmed. It is only clear that yesterday's losses on the Russian side were greater than usual. - In the direction of Karamatorsk/Siversk, there are skirmishes on the contact line, but the Russian side has not been able to launch a serious offensive. - The Bahmut direction is currently the main attack direction for the Russians. In one narrow section, it was possible to advance a few kilometers yesterday, but for comparison - the attacks in the other four directions did not bring success. - Russian units continue to be the more passive side in Southern Donbass - On the southern front, the Russian command is much more nervous about a possible Ukrainian counterattack. Additional units are grouped here. As Ukraine has destroyed a large number of ammunition depots and disrupted logistics in the previous weeks, Russia can no longer afford greater artillery activity. The reserve is kept in order to repel a possible Ukrainian offensive, rather than to dream of launching an offensive. - In the Kherson region, the fighting is on the contact line. Yesterday's announcement about the death of a pilot in battle gives an idea of the losses of the Ukrainian side. The Russian defense is not yet completely broken, but it is getting more difficult for them at the back. It is now certain that the Kherson Bridge will no longer be usable in the near future. The barge, which started operating next to it, cannot in any way provide relief for the Russian side. In terms of military cargo, it does nothing. After some time, bigger barges will be found, but there will also be bigger losses, and in terms of supplying and replenishing the troops, this will not help. Apparently, the railway bridge near Herson was also taken out of order yesterday. The region is not isolated yet, because you can cross the Dnieper via the Novo-Kahovka bridge. In addition, the Russians built a pontoon bridge over the Ingulets River, replacing the road bridge destroyed by the Ukrainians. With this, Herson's connection with Nova-Kahovka was restored. However, now on the Russian side, all logistics have become very clumsy and time-consuming, especially when it comes to heavy equipment. And vulnerable. The pressure on the Russian units is therefore increasing every day. - The Russian side attacks Ukrainian cities as a countermeasure. The focus is on Mõkolaiv and Kharkiv. Also for other cities close to the front. Missile attacks are mostly carried out. The S-300 missiles of the evening riot complex also hit Kharkiv for the first time - so there is a shortage of real missiles. In addition, today, a missile attack was organized for a long time on the vicinity of Kiev and the areas of Chernigov region from the territory of Belarus. Isn't this, on the one hand, a small attempt to restart the information ops about the possible entry into the war of Belarus in order to expand the geography, demonstrate the initiative and potential, etc. But in addition- - this is also part of the pressure to restart negotiations. The Russian side would need a slightly longer break to restore diplomatic, military and informational initiative, better than a truce. There is an urgent need to stop arms and other aid to Ukraine, but it will be difficult to achieve this while the hostilities continue. Active information measures on the Russian side do not work, or rather work only to a very small extent. In addition, they have played strategically with gas supplies in a completely obtuse manner. This further confirms the assessment that Russia has always been wrong in its strategies, or that strategies are lacking at all. Since they are good at tactics, they try to compensate for the lack of strategies by combining different tactics. But if tactics work well in some individual issues, it does not mean that they also support each other to achieve strategic goals. If war crimes had not been committed, their efforts might even have a small chance of success. - Russia makes a very significant contribution to diplomacy in order to get out of a depressed situation (it cannot be called isolation). The current race with Europe over Africa is not primarily about grain. This topic is just another influencer. Russia (and also China) have been taking advantage of Europe's sensitivity to African issues for a long time. Mainly for migration reasons, but also for other security reasons. Furthermore, due to recent history, African issues are emotional for Europeans and lead to irrational discussions and policy debates without results.
28. juuli kokkuvõte eelmise päeva kohta - vene üksused on kontsentreerinud kogu jõu pealetungile Põhja-Donbassis, mujal ollakse pigem kaitses. Initsiatiivi üritatakse näiliselt üleval hoida raketirünnakutega Ukraina linnadele. - Harkivi juures ei ole vene üksused nüüd mõned päevad suutnud luurelahinguid korraldada. - Izjumi juures üritasid vene üksused eile natuke suureamalt peale tungida, kuid ebaõnnestusid täielikult. Eile levis info Ukraina üksuste väikesest vastupealetungist, kuid see ei ole kinnitust leidnud. Selge on vaid, et eilse kaotused vene poolel olid tavapärasest suuremad. - Karamatorski/Siverski suunal käivad nügelemised kontaktjoonel, aga tõsisemat pealetungi vene pool l ei ole suutnud ette võtta. - Bahmuti suund on hetkel venelaste jaoks peamine rünnaku suund. Ühes kitsas lõigus suudeti eile paar kilomeetrit edeneda, samas võrdluseks - ülejäänud neljas suunas ei toonud rünnakud edu. - Lõuna-Donbassis on vene üksused jätkuvalt passiivsem pool - Lõunarindel on vene väejuhatus võimaliku Ukraina vasturünnaku pärast palju rohkem närvis. Siia koondatakse täiendavaid üksuseid. Kuna eelnevtel nädalatel on Ukraina hävitanud hulgaliselt laksemoonaladusid ja seganud logistikat, siis ei saa venemaa enam endale suuremat suurtükiväe aktiivsust lubada. Reserve hoitakse pigem selleks, et Ukraina võimalik pealetung tagasi lüüa, kui et unistatakse ise peale tungile asuda. - Hersoni piirkonnas käivad lahingud kontakjoonel. Ukraina poole kaotustest annab aimu eilne teade ühe piloodi hukkumisest lahingus. Vene kaitse ei ole veel täielikult murtud, kuid tagalas läheb neil kogu aeg keerulisemaks. Nüüdseks on kindel, et Hersoni sild ei ole enam lähiajal kasutatav. Selle kõrval tegevust alustanud praam, ei suuda mitte kuidagi vene poole jaoks kergendust pakkuda. Sõjaliste veoste mõttes ei anna see mitte midagi. Eks mõne aja jooksul leitakse suuremad alused, aga tulevad ka suuremad kaotused ning vägede varustamise ja täiendamise mõttes see ei aita. Eile viidi ilmselt rivist välja ka Hersoni läheduses asuv raudteesild. Piirkond isolatsioonis veel ei ole, sest üle Dnepri pääseb mööda Novo-Kahovka silda. Lisaks rajasid venelased üle Inguletsi jõe pontoonsilla, ukrainlaste purustatud maanteesilla asemel. Sellega taastus Hersoni ühendus Nova-Kahovkaga. Küll on nüüd vene poolel muutunud kogu logistika väga kohmakaks ja eriti rasketehnika osas väga aega nõudvaks. Ja haavatavaks. Surve vene üksustele seega kasvab iga päevaga. - Vene pool ründab vastukaaluks Ukraina linnu. Keskendutakse Mõkolajevile ja Harkivile. Samuti teistele rindelähedastele linnadele. Valdavalt sooritatakse raketirünnakuid. Ka Harkivi pihta läksid esimest korda õhturõjekompleksi S-300 raketid.- päris rakettidest on seega puudus käes. Lisaks korraldati täna üle pikema aja raketirünak Kiievi lähipiirkonnale ja Tšernigovi oblasti aladele Valgevene territooriumilt. Eks see ole ühelt poolt pisuke katse uuesti käivitada infoopsi Valgevene võimaliku sõtta astumise kohta, et laiendada geograafiat, demonsteerida initsiatiivi ja potentsiaali jne. Aga lisaks- - on see ka üks osa surveavaldusest, et käivitada uuesti läbirääkimisi. Vene poolel oleks vaja diplomaatilise, sõjalise ja informatsioonilise initsiatiivi taastamiseks pisut pikemat pausi, parem, kui vaherahu. Hädasti oleks vaja peatada relva ja muu abi Ukrainale, aga sõjategevuse kestes on seda raske saavutada. Vene poole informatsiooni aktiivmeetmed ei toimi, või õigemini toimivad vaid väga väikeses osas. Lisaks on nad strateegiliselt täiesti nürimeelselt mänginud gaasitarnetega. Siit leiab veelgi kinnitust hinnang, et venemaa on strateegiates alati eksinud, või siis strateegiad suisa puudavd. Kuna taktikates ollakse osavad, siis üritatakse strateegiate puudumist kompenseerida erinevate taktikate kombineerimisega. Aga kui mõnedes üksikküsimustes taktikad toimivad hästi, ei tähenda see, et need ka üksteist toetavad strateegiliste eesmärkide saavutamiseks. Kui ei oleks toime pandud sõjakuritegusid, siis võib olla oleks nende pingutustel isegi väikest eduvõimalust. - Venemaa panustab väga olulises mahus diplomaatiale, et väljuda alla surutud olukorrast (isolatsiooniks seda nimetada ei saa). Praegune võidujooks Euroopaga Aafrika pärast ei ole seotud esmajärjekorras teravilja teemaga. See teema on lihtsalt üks mõjutusvahend. Venemaa (ja ka Hiina) kasutavad juba pikemat aega ära Euroopa tundlikust Aafrika teemade suhtes. Eelkõige rände põhjustel, aga ka muu julgeoleku tõttu. Lisaks on tulenevalt lähiajaloost Aafrika teemad eurooplaste jaoks emotsionaalsed ning põhjustavad ebaratsionaalseid diskussioone ja ilma tulemusteta poliitika arutelusid. Euroopa suurim lõks on teadagi inimõigused versus üldine stabiilsus. Pealtnäha on võimalik kõrvalt tulijal Aafirka üle maksta ning seda venemaa praegu näiliselt üritabki. Eesmärk on luua visuaalne kuvand Aafrika ja venemaa koostööst, mis ei arvesta venemaa vastaste sanktsioonidega. Kokkuvõttes alahinnatakse ikkagi Euroopa Aafrika tundmist ja sinna panustatavaid ressursse, millega venemaa tegelikult ei suuda võistelda. Juba ammu enne Ukraina konflikti algust oli näha, et venemaal ei ole jõudu Aafirka mõjukaks hõlvamiseks. Küll aga suudetakse kaasa mängida mõnes üksikus riigis, mis mõnele Euroopa riigile piisavalt valut tekitab. Eks see ole meeldetuletus Euroopale, et Aafrika strateegiat on tegelikult ikkagi vaja. Sellist päriselt toimivat, mis aitab piirkonda stabiliseerida, mitte lihtsalt ei kõmise retooriliselt.
Summary of July 29 - the Russian side continues offensive attempts in Northern Donbass, Ukraine firmly holds the initiative in the Kherson region. - In the direction of Kharkiv, activity on the Russian side has continued to be lower than it was a few weeks ago, there have been no changes - The Izjum group has not been able to do anything new after the failure of the last attack attempt the day before yesterday - For the second day in the direction of Kramatorski/Siverski, the major offensive event has not taken place, an artillery duel is going on. The activity of the Russian side in this direction has been in a downward trend. There are also indications of a lack of resources from elsewhere, but let's see what happens in the coming weeks. - In the direction of Bahmut, the offensive attempts of the Russian side continue to be the most active. It was possible to make some progress in two points. However, fighting continues in this region, so no major conclusions can be drawn yet - Yesterday, Russian units also attempted an offensive in Southern Donbass, from the north of Avdiijvka, as well as reconnaissance operations on the western side of Donetsk. The attacks were undertaken because Ukraine has been actively bombarding Russian military targets located in and around the city of Donetsk for a month, and they obviously wanted to respond somehow. The attacks were unsuccessful and the explosions in the Russian rear continued yesterday. A very impressive amount of Russian ammunition should have been destroyed by now. - Nothing significant has happened on the southern front - In the direction of Kherson, the Russian side somehow tries to organize the crossing of rivers at various bridges. Considering the deteriorating situation on the front, these events are a bit nervous and chaotic. An attempt is being made to arrange a transfer by barge from the Dnieper near the city of Kherson, but in this way it is possible to transfer only a very marginal amount of the supplies that could have been done via the bridge. According to various reports, the last bridge over the Dnieper at Nova Kahovka is getting clogged, which creates an opportunity for Ukraine to attack Russian technical convoys. Yesterday, the Ukrainian authorities mentioned that the Russian side has sent 5-7 battalion tactical groups and highly combat-capable units (airborne, etc.) to the Kherson region. This may also be the explanation why the offensive attempts at Siversk are dying down, because there are simply no larger resting reserves on the Russian side at the moment. Although all kinds of volunteer battalions are being formed in Russia with great fanfare, they would not reach the front before September, even according to the Russian schedule. However, if the territories occupied on the west bank of the Dnieper are lost, the Russian side in this war would no longer be able to cross the Dnieper, and even now only theoretical threats to Odessa will be a thing of the past. On the front near Kherson, Russian units are trying to push back the bridgehead over the Inguelts River, which was occupied by Ukraine about a month ago, with the help of reinforcements. So far, all attacks have failed, but Ukrainian units have also been able to advance very slowly here. Very effective Ukrainian attacks on equipment and logistics points of Russian units continued yesterday. It can be said that the activity of the Ukrainians is in a constantly increasing trend, and the situation of the Russian units is deteriorating, although not by hours. + Show Spoiler +
Original
29. juuli kokkuvõte - vene pool jätkab pealetungi katseid Põhja-Donbassis, Ukraina hoiab tugevalt initsiatiivi Hersoni piirkonnas. - Harkivi suunal on vene poole aktiivsus olnud jätkuvalt madalam, kui oli veel mõned nädalad tagasi, muutusi ei ole - Izjumi grupeering ei ole peale viimase pealetungi katse põrumist üleeile, midagi uut suutnud ette võtta - Kramatorski/Siverski suunal juba teist päeva suuremat pealetungi üritust ei ole toimund, käib suurtükiväe duell. Vene poole aktiivsus sellel suunal on olnud langevas trendis. Viiteid resursside nappusele on ka mujalt, aga vaatame, mis toimub järgmiste nädalate jooksul. - Bahmuti suunal on vene poole pealetungikatsed jätkuvalt kõige aktiivsemad. Kahes punktis suudeti õige pisut ka edeneda. Selles piirkonnas aga lahingud jätkuvad, nii et suuremaid järeldusi veel teha ei saa - Eile üritasid vene üksused ka pealetungi Lõuna-Donbassis, Avdiijvkast põhja poolt, samuti luurelahinguid Donetski lääneküljel. Rünnakud võeti ette põhjusel, et Ukraina on juba kuu aega aktiivselt pommitanud Donetski linnas ja selle ümbruses paiknenud vene sõjalisi sihtmärke ning ilmsesti sooviti kuidagigi sellele vastata. Rünnakud oli ebaedukad ja plahvatused vene tagalas jätkusid ka eile. Nüüdseks peaks olema hävinud juba väga muljetavaldav kogus vene moona. - Lõunarindel ei ole midagi märkimisväärset juhtunud - Hersoni suunal üritab vene pool kuidagi moodi korraldada jõgede ületust erinevate sildade juures. Arvestades halvenevat olukorda rindel, on need üritused natukene närvilised ja kaootilised. Proovitakse korraldada praamidega ülevedu Dneprist Hersoni linna juures, aga sedasi on võimalik üle toimetada ainult väga marginaalne kogus koosseisust, mida oleks saanud teha silda mööda. Viimane sild üle Dnepri Nova Kahovka juures on erinevate teadet kohaselt ummistumas, mis loob Ukrainale võimaluse rünnata vene tehnikakolonne. Eile nimetasid ukraina võimud, et vene pool on Hersoni piirkonda saatnud täiendusena 5-7 pataljoni taktikalist gruppi ja väga võitlusvõimelisi üksuseid (õhudessant jne). See võib olla ka seletus, miks pealetungikatsed Siverskile on vaibumas, sest suuremaid puhkavaid reserve vene poolel hetkel lihtsalt ei ole. Kuigi venemaal formeeritakse suurema käraga igasugu vabatahtlike pataljone, siis rindele nad enne septembrit isegi vene ajakava kohaselt ei jõuaks. Kui aga kaotada Dnepri läänekaldal hõivatud terrotooriumid, siis selles sõjas vene pool enam Dneprit ületada ei suudaks ja isegi praeguseks ainult teoreetilised ähvardused Odessale on lõplikult minevik. Hersoni juures rindel üritavad vene üksused täienduse abil suruda tagasi Ukraina poolt ca kuu tagasi hõivatud sillapead üle Ingueltsi jõe. Seni on kõik rünnakud ebaõnnestunud, kuid ka Ukraina üksused on siin väga aeglaselt suutnud edasi liikuda. Eile jätkusid ka väga tõhusad Ukraina rünnakud vene üksuste varustus ja logistika punktidele. Võib öelda, et ukrainlaste aktiivsus on pidevalt kasvavas trendis ja vene üksuste olukord halveneb, kuigi mitte veel tundidega.
On July 29 2022 09:42 Manit0u wrote: I wonder if Ukrainian reports are only KIA or counting all OOA and what the ratio would be for that in this conflict. Past war data has a pretty wide spread of dead/wounded at ratios ranging from 1:1 to 1:7. Those most commonly fall into 1:3-1:4 range so given that we can make some assumptions. For the US number at 75k OOA total that would be around 20k dead and 55k wounded. If Ukrainian numbers are correct it would be 10k dead and 30k wounded if the number given is OOA, if it's KIA that would give 40k dead and 120k wounded for a total of 160k OOA (for a 1:3 ratio, if it's 1:1 it'd be 80k total which is pretty close to US estimate which would put it at 37.5k dead and the same number of wounded).
Leaked data showed 1:1.8 ratio before, so 40K dead would give 70K wounded for a total of 110K
The Ukrainian data also counts Wagner and LDPR proxies as Russian, so there might be a discrepancy there
This analysis points to a Russian economic collapse withing the next few years. It also shows that Europe can quite easily manage cutting itself off from Russia, whereas Russia is extremely dependent on Europe.
Alternative export routes for Russia are unlikely to help save their economy. China is not dependent on them, and Russia is rapidly becoming highly dependent on non-western partnerships, so China has a great negotiative advantage for increased imports. I expect China to either take full advantage of this, or more likely to show a goodwill gesture and just continue business as usual - as in only marginally increasing their imports for about the same price.
The Ukrainian military said on Saturday it had killed scores of Russian soldiers and destroyed two ammunition dumps in fighting in the Kherson region, the focus of Kyiv’s counter-offensive in the south and a key link in Moscow’s supply lines.
Rail traffic to Kherson over the Dnipro River had been cut, the military’s southern command said, potentially further isolating Russian forces west of the river from supplies in occupied Crimea and the east.
Ukraine has used Western-supplied long-range missile systems to badly damage three bridges across the Dnipro in recent weeks, cutting off Kherson city and — in the assessment of British defense officials — leaving Russia’s 49th Army stationed on the west bank of the river highly vulnerable.
“As a result of fire establishing control over the main transport links in occupied territory, it has been established that traffic over the rail bridge crossing the Dnipro is not possible,” Ukraine’s southern command said in a statement.
It said more than 100 Russian soldiers and seven tanks had been destroyed in fighting on Friday in the Kherson region, the first major town captured by the Russians following their Feb. 24 invasion.
The first deputy head of the Kherson regional council, Yuri Sobolevsky, told residents to stay from away from Russian ammunition dumps.
“The Ukrainian army is pouring it on against the Russians and this is only the beginning,” he wrote on Telegram.
The pro-Ukrainian governor of Kherson region, Dmytro Butriy, said Berislav district was particularly hard hit. Berislav is across the river northwest of the Kakhovka hydroelectric powerplant.
“In some villages, not a single home has been left intact, all infrastructure has been destroyed, people are living in cellars,” he wrote on the Telegram app.
Reuters was unable to independently verify the reports and officials from the Russian-appointed administration running the Kherson region earlier this week rejected Western and Ukrainian assessments of the situation.
There is no way Russia would answer or even follow up with this question. As it could/would force Italy to trigger Article 5 of NATO. While at the same time increase funding towards Ukraine.
Every day the experts claim Russia is running out of steam. They've been running out of steam for half a year now. I wonder when they're actually going to run out of steam.
On July 31 2022 09:08 gobbledydook wrote: Every day the experts claim Russia is running out of steam. They've been running out of steam for half a year now. I wonder when they're actually going to run out of steam.
Did you miss that time they got pushed back from Kyiv, pushed back to the border near Kharkiv, pushed back to the outskirts of Kherson?
On July 31 2022 09:08 gobbledydook wrote: Every day the experts claim Russia is running out of steam. They've been running out of steam for half a year now. I wonder when they're actually going to run out of steam.
They wont run out of steam until they have been depleted across the board. Any sane country would have conceded by now. But Putin cant afford to admit any sort of defeat. Due to their losses, likely Donbas region will now be a complete fight to the death where they hope they hold onto or take a few more towns.
In the first two weeks, they were marching on Kyiv, Kharkiv and Donbas. Now its just a limited region, and they only thing they have going is more artillery and missiles. 60-80k soldiers lost in the first 4 months of a modern war is insanity.
On July 31 2022 09:08 gobbledydook wrote: Every day the experts claim Russia is running out of steam. They've been running out of steam for half a year now. I wonder when they're actually going to run out of steam.
Did you miss that time they got pushed back from Kyiv, pushed back to the border near Kharkiv, pushed back to the outskirts of Kherson?
The war has not ended yet unfortunately, so there is still some steam left. I wonder what it will take for them to concede and pull out. Or will it devolve into a stalemate where neither side can progress?
On July 31 2022 09:08 gobbledydook wrote: Every day the experts claim Russia is running out of steam. They've been running out of steam for half a year now. I wonder when they're actually going to run out of steam.
Did you miss that time they got pushed back from Kyiv, pushed back to the border near Kharkiv, pushed back to the outskirts of Kherson?
The war has not ended yet unfortunately, so there is still some steam left. I wonder what it will take for them to concede and pull out. Or will it devolve into a stalemate where neither side can progress?
The important thing is that UA can run out of steam too. They're the ones losing manpower and infrastructure, so they can choose to freeze the conflict to reduce losses. But, as they now have now finally established a manpower advantage for a few months, and HIMARS and western AA has mitigated most of RUs remaining equipment advantage, they'll likely try to recapture as much of what was lost in the south.
But RU can easily retreat from some of the captured areas, claim the special operation is over and nothing happens to the Putin regime. The propaganda wheels keep turning just like when they pulled back from Kyiv and Kharkiv. For UA it's an existential struggle. If they don't regain control of the southern ports, their export economy will remain crippled.
On July 27 2022 07:23 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:If it is destroyed then 15k Russian troops will be trapped with no supply route.
I hope the Ukrainians kill all of them. I've read what they've been up to in Kherson and it's shocking even for Russia...
Source? I haven't been following
Perhaps the recent Human Rights Watch report www.hrw.org detailing torture, unlawful detentions and more.
Wow the seriousness level of those war crimes is nodoubt only second to the United States ones.Terrific.
While it is true that the US has done and still does a lot of fucked up shit, it is important to remember that this excuses none of what is happening in ukraine. It may make statements from the US government silly, but in the end, most people care about ukraine getting support so they can survive this. 'But X also did this fucked up thing' is never a real argument, it can only serve as a reminder that there is more to do.
Though I can very much understand this reaction coming from someone from vietnam, as you have seen very little justice for what the US did down there.
On July 27 2022 07:23 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:If it is destroyed then 15k Russian troops will be trapped with no supply route.
I hope the Ukrainians kill all of them. I've read what they've been up to in Kherson and it's shocking even for Russia...
Source? I haven't been following
Perhaps the recent Human Rights Watch report www.hrw.org detailing torture, unlawful detentions and more.
Wow the seriousness level of those war crimes is nodoubt only second to the United States ones.Terrific.
While it is true that the US has done and still does a lot of fucked up shit, it is important to remember that this excuses none of what is happening in ukraine. It may make statements from the US government silly, but in the end, most people care about ukraine getting support so they can survive this. 'But X also did this fucked up thing' is never a real argument, it can only serve as a reminder that there is more to do.
Though I can very much understand this reaction coming from someone from vietnam, as you have seen very little justice for what the US did down there.
In real war both sides try everything in their capability to win. There is no law, no limit. What justice are you taking about? We can't wait for it falling from the sky, we have to do it ourself. So justice is we managed to kill 50k US troops back. I wish more of course but it's still a fine number considering the fire power of both sides. Potential war crime needing investigation is a meaningless joke because real wars are already out of law context. War crime is just the tool used by winner side to treat the loser one.
On July 31 2022 09:08 gobbledydook wrote: Every day the experts claim Russia is running out of steam. They've been running out of steam for half a year now. I wonder when they're actually going to run out of steam.
Did you miss that time they got pushed back from Kyiv, pushed back to the border near Kharkiv, pushed back to the outskirts of Kherson?
The war has not ended yet unfortunately, so there is still some steam left. I wonder what it will take for them to concede and pull out. Or will it devolve into a stalemate where neither side can progress?
The important thing is that UA can run out of steam too. They're the ones losing manpower and infrastructure, so they can choose to freeze the conflict to reduce losses. But, as they now have now finally established a manpower advantage for a few months, and HIMARS and western AA has mitigated most of RUs remaining equipment advantage, they'll likely try to recapture as much of what was lost in the south.
But RU can easily retreat from some of the captured areas, claim the special operation is over and nothing happens to the Putin regime. The propaganda wheels keep turning just like when they pulled back from Kyiv and Kharkiv. For UA it's an existential struggle. If they don't regain control of the southern ports, their export economy will remain crippled.
Unless Ukraine takes back Crimea That would be interesting to say the least.
On July 27 2022 07:23 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:If it is destroyed then 15k Russian troops will be trapped with no supply route.
I hope the Ukrainians kill all of them. I've read what they've been up to in Kherson and it's shocking even for Russia...
Source? I haven't been following
Perhaps the recent Human Rights Watch report www.hrw.org detailing torture, unlawful detentions and more.
Wow the seriousness level of those war crimes is nodoubt only second to the United States ones.Terrific.
While it is true that the US has done and still does a lot of fucked up shit, it is important to remember that this excuses none of what is happening in ukraine. It may make statements from the US government silly, but in the end, most people care about ukraine getting support so they can survive this. 'But X also did this fucked up thing' is never a real argument, it can only serve as a reminder that there is more to do.
Though I can very much understand this reaction coming from someone from vietnam, as you have seen very little justice for what the US did down there.
In real war both sides try everything in their capability to win. There is no law, no limit. What justice are you taking about? We can't wait for it falling from the sky, we have to do it ourself. So justice is we managed to kill 50k US troops back. I wish more of course but it's still a fine number considering the fire power of both sides. Potential war crime needing investigation is a meaningless joke because real wars are already out of law context. War crime is just the tool used by winner side to treat the loser one.
On July 27 2022 07:23 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:If it is destroyed then 15k Russian troops will be trapped with no supply route.
I hope the Ukrainians kill all of them. I've read what they've been up to in Kherson and it's shocking even for Russia...
Source? I haven't been following
Perhaps the recent Human Rights Watch report www.hrw.org detailing torture, unlawful detentions and more.
Wow the seriousness level of those war crimes is nodoubt only second to the United States ones.Terrific.
While it is true that the US has done and still does a lot of fucked up shit, it is important to remember that this excuses none of what is happening in ukraine. It may make statements from the US government silly, but in the end, most people care about ukraine getting support so they can survive this. 'But X also did this fucked up thing' is never a real argument, it can only serve as a reminder that there is more to do.
Though I can very much understand this reaction coming from someone from vietnam, as you have seen very little justice for what the US did down there.
And there is just nothing to do. As long as the US is still the no 1 super power they do what they want to do as they see it fits. Justice court, war crime really?
On July 27 2022 07:23 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:If it is destroyed then 15k Russian troops will be trapped with no supply route.
I hope the Ukrainians kill all of them. I've read what they've been up to in Kherson and it's shocking even for Russia...
Source? I haven't been following
Perhaps the recent Human Rights Watch report www.hrw.org detailing torture, unlawful detentions and more.
Wow the seriousness level of those war crimes is nodoubt only second to the United States ones.Terrific.
While it is true that the US has done and still does a lot of fucked up shit, it is important to remember that this excuses none of what is happening in ukraine. It may make statements from the US government silly, but in the end, most people care about ukraine getting support so they can survive this. 'But X also did this fucked up thing' is never a real argument, it can only serve as a reminder that there is more to do.
Though I can very much understand this reaction coming from someone from vietnam, as you have seen very little justice for what the US did down there.
And there is just nothing to do. As long as the US is still the no 1 super power they do what they want to do as they see it fits. Justice court, war crime really?
US courts have prosecuted a number of US war crimes.
Vietnam war: 95 army personell + 27 marine corps convicted.
This shows that already during the Vietnam war the courts were doing their job. Whether they did a perfect job is another question, but at least they did something.
Can we expect Russian courts to do the same with their own military? Crickets. Exactly one conviction over at least a few thousand investigations. And they always block international investigations.
This is the problem with whataboutism. It's not a good argument, and it must also hold up to scrunity. It's very clear that, on a scale of who's more evil, Russia takes a top spot, while the USA is at least making a reasonable effort not to be the bad guy all the time.
On July 27 2022 07:23 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:If it is destroyed then 15k Russian troops will be trapped with no supply route.
I hope the Ukrainians kill all of them. I've read what they've been up to in Kherson and it's shocking even for Russia...
Source? I haven't been following
Perhaps the recent Human Rights Watch report www.hrw.org detailing torture, unlawful detentions and more.
Wow the seriousness level of those war crimes is nodoubt only second to the United States ones.Terrific.
While it is true that the US has done and still does a lot of fucked up shit, it is important to remember that this excuses none of what is happening in ukraine. It may make statements from the US government silly, but in the end, most people care about ukraine getting support so they can survive this. 'But X also did this fucked up thing' is never a real argument, it can only serve as a reminder that there is more to do.
Though I can very much understand this reaction coming from someone from vietnam, as you have seen very little justice for what the US did down there.
In real war both sides try everything in their capability to win. There is no law, no limit. What justice are you taking about? We can't wait for it falling from the sky, we have to do it ourself. So justice is we managed to kill 50k US troops back. I wish more of course but it's still a fine number considering the fire power of both sides. Potential war crime needing investigation is a meaningless joke because real wars are already out of law context. War crime is just the tool used by winner side to treat the loser one.
War sucks, but please stay on topic.
Oh that's because another guy brought back the VN war ^^
EPT
That would be interesting to say the least.
