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NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.
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On July 31 2022 20:54 Magic Powers wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2022 20:02 geod wrote:On July 31 2022 18:17 Artesimo wrote:On July 31 2022 15:47 geod wrote:On July 27 2022 11:18 Ghanburighan wrote:On July 27 2022 10:25 darthfoley wrote:On July 27 2022 07:59 maybenexttime wrote:On July 27 2022 07:23 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:If it is destroyed then 15k Russian troops will be trapped with no supply route. I hope the Ukrainians kill all of them. I've read what they've been up to in Kherson and it's shocking even for Russia... Source? I haven't been following Perhaps the recent Human Rights Watch report www.hrw.org detailing torture, unlawful detentions and more. Wow the seriousness level of those war crimes is nodoubt only second to the United States ones.Terrific. While it is true that the US has done and still does a lot of fucked up shit, it is important to remember that this excuses none of what is happening in ukraine. It may make statements from the US government silly, but in the end, most people care about ukraine getting support so they can survive this. 'But X also did this fucked up thing' is never a real argument, it can only serve as a reminder that there is more to do. Though I can very much understand this reaction coming from someone from vietnam, as you have seen very little justice for what the US did down there. And there is just nothing to do. As long as the US is still the no 1 super power they do what they want to do as they see it fits. Justice court, war crime really? US courts have prosecuted a number of US war crimes. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_war_crimesVietnam war: 95 army personell + 27 marine corps convicted. This shows that already during the Vietnam war the courts were doing their job. Whether they did a perfect job is another question, but at least they did something. Can we expect Russian courts to do the same with their own military? Crickets. Exactly one conviction over at least a few thousand investigations. And they always block international investigations. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_war_crimesThis is the problem with whataboutism. It's not a good argument, and it must also hold up to scrunity. It's very clear that, on a scale of who's more evil, Russia takes a top spot, while the USA is at least making a reasonable effort not to be the bad guy all the time.
"However, the Federal government of the United States strongly opposes the International Criminal Court (ICC) treaty, arguing that the Court lacks checks and balances,[1] and thus does not accept ICC jurisdiction over its nationals.[2]"
I completed stop reading after the sentence above.
and
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/States_parties_to_the_Rome_Statute_of_the_International_Criminal_Court#United_States
"The Trump administration strained relations with the ICC, stating it would revoke visas for any ICC staff seeking to investigate Americans for war crimes. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo stated that such revocations could be applied to any staff involved with investigating war crimes committed by Israel or other allied nations as well.[79]"
Oh well and the joke continues
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/11/us/politics/us-russia-ukraine-war-crimes.html
And you know what? "whataboutism" is a very strong tool of any juridic system. They handle the current case based on existed examplar cases. It's the common sense.
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On July 31 2022 23:26 geod wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2022 20:54 Magic Powers wrote:On July 31 2022 20:02 geod wrote:On July 31 2022 18:17 Artesimo wrote:On July 31 2022 15:47 geod wrote:On July 27 2022 11:18 Ghanburighan wrote:On July 27 2022 10:25 darthfoley wrote:On July 27 2022 07:59 maybenexttime wrote:On July 27 2022 07:23 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:If it is destroyed then 15k Russian troops will be trapped with no supply route. I hope the Ukrainians kill all of them. I've read what they've been up to in Kherson and it's shocking even for Russia... Source? I haven't been following Perhaps the recent Human Rights Watch report www.hrw.org detailing torture, unlawful detentions and more. Wow the seriousness level of those war crimes is nodoubt only second to the United States ones.Terrific. While it is true that the US has done and still does a lot of fucked up shit, it is important to remember that this excuses none of what is happening in ukraine. It may make statements from the US government silly, but in the end, most people care about ukraine getting support so they can survive this. 'But X also did this fucked up thing' is never a real argument, it can only serve as a reminder that there is more to do. Though I can very much understand this reaction coming from someone from vietnam, as you have seen very little justice for what the US did down there. And there is just nothing to do. As long as the US is still the no 1 super power they do what they want to do as they see it fits. Justice court, war crime really? US courts have prosecuted a number of US war crimes. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_war_crimesVietnam war: 95 army personell + 27 marine corps convicted. This shows that already during the Vietnam war the courts were doing their job. Whether they did a perfect job is another question, but at least they did something. Can we expect Russian courts to do the same with their own military? Crickets. Exactly one conviction over at least a few thousand investigations. And they always block international investigations. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_war_crimesThis is the problem with whataboutism. It's not a good argument, and it must also hold up to scrunity. It's very clear that, on a scale of who's more evil, Russia takes a top spot, while the USA is at least making a reasonable effort not to be the bad guy all the time. "However, the Federal government of the United States strongly opposes the International Criminal Court (ICC) treaty, arguing that the Court lacks checks and balances,[1] and thus does not accept ICC jurisdiction over its nationals.[2]" I completed stop reading after the sentence above. and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/States_parties_to_the_Rome_Statute_of_the_International_Criminal_Court#United_States "The Trump administration strained relations with the ICC, stating it would revoke visas for any ICC staff seeking to investigate Americans for war crimes. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo stated that such revocations could be applied to any staff involved with investigating war crimes committed by Israel or other allied nations as well.[79]" Oh well and the joke continues https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/11/us/politics/us-russia-ukraine-war-crimes.htmlAnd you know what? "whataboutism" is a very strong tool of any juridic system. They handle the current case based on existed examplar cases. It's the common sense.
And how is any of that relevant? It's a war between Russia and Ukraine.
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United States42691 Posts
@geod keep it on topic please
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After a slow start, DE might be currently leading the charge on providing UA new and needed Western capabilities.
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On July 31 2022 15:18 Ghanburighan wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2022 14:42 gobbledydook wrote:On July 31 2022 10:35 KwarK wrote:On July 31 2022 09:08 gobbledydook wrote:
Every day the experts claim Russia is running out of steam. They've been running out of steam for half a year now. I wonder when they're actually going to run out of steam. Did you miss that time they got pushed back from Kyiv, pushed back to the border near Kharkiv, pushed back to the outskirts of Kherson? The war has not ended yet unfortunately, so there is still some steam left. I wonder what it will take for them to concede and pull out. Or will it devolve into a stalemate where neither side can progress? The important thing is that UA can run out of steam too. They're the ones losing manpower and infrastructure, so they can choose to freeze the conflict to reduce losses. But, as they now have now finally established a manpower advantage for a few months, and HIMARS and western AA has mitigated most of RUs remaining equipment advantage, they'll likely try to recapture as much of what was lost in the south. But RU can easily retreat from some of the captured areas, claim the special operation is over and nothing happens to the Putin regime. The propaganda wheels keep turning just like when they pulled back from Kyiv and Kharkiv. For UA it's an existential struggle. If they don't regain control of the southern ports, their export economy will remain crippled.
I think not even Putin can weather the storm that would follow. Ruining your country for absolutely nothing. And it wouldn't end with a retreat. Nobody in their right mind would make business with Russia for the next 5+ years, especially with this regime
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On August 01 2022 21:21 Harris1st wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2022 15:18 Ghanburighan wrote:On July 31 2022 14:42 gobbledydook wrote:On July 31 2022 10:35 KwarK wrote:On July 31 2022 09:08 gobbledydook wrote:
Every day the experts claim Russia is running out of steam. They've been running out of steam for half a year now. I wonder when they're actually going to run out of steam. Did you miss that time they got pushed back from Kyiv, pushed back to the border near Kharkiv, pushed back to the outskirts of Kherson? The war has not ended yet unfortunately, so there is still some steam left. I wonder what it will take for them to concede and pull out. Or will it devolve into a stalemate where neither side can progress? The important thing is that UA can run out of steam too. They're the ones losing manpower and infrastructure, so they can choose to freeze the conflict to reduce losses. But, as they now have now finally established a manpower advantage for a few months, and HIMARS and western AA has mitigated most of RUs remaining equipment advantage, they'll likely try to recapture as much of what was lost in the south. But RU can easily retreat from some of the captured areas, claim the special operation is over and nothing happens to the Putin regime. The propaganda wheels keep turning just like when they pulled back from Kyiv and Kharkiv. For UA it's an existential struggle. If they don't regain control of the southern ports, their export economy will remain crippled. I think not even Putin can weather the storm that would follow. Ruining your country for absolutely nothing. And it wouldn't end with a retreat. Nobody in their right mind would make business with Russia for the next 5+ years, especially with this regime
I think you underestimate the willingness of businesses to trade morals for money
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Russian Federation610 Posts
On August 01 2022 21:21 Harris1st wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2022 15:18 Ghanburighan wrote:On July 31 2022 14:42 gobbledydook wrote:On July 31 2022 10:35 KwarK wrote:On July 31 2022 09:08 gobbledydook wrote:
Every day the experts claim Russia is running out of steam. They've been running out of steam for half a year now. I wonder when they're actually going to run out of steam. Did you miss that time they got pushed back from Kyiv, pushed back to the border near Kharkiv, pushed back to the outskirts of Kherson? The war has not ended yet unfortunately, so there is still some steam left. I wonder what it will take for them to concede and pull out. Or will it devolve into a stalemate where neither side can progress? The important thing is that UA can run out of steam too. They're the ones losing manpower and infrastructure, so they can choose to freeze the conflict to reduce losses. But, as they now have now finally established a manpower advantage for a few months, and HIMARS and western AA has mitigated most of RUs remaining equipment advantage, they'll likely try to recapture as much of what was lost in the south. But RU can easily retreat from some of the captured areas, claim the special operation is over and nothing happens to the Putin regime. The propaganda wheels keep turning just like when they pulled back from Kyiv and Kharkiv. For UA it's an existential struggle. If they don't regain control of the southern ports, their export economy will remain crippled. I think not even Putin can weather the storm that would follow. Ruining your country for absolutely nothing. And it wouldn't end with a retreat. Nobody in their right mind would make business with Russia for the next 5+ years, especially with this regime
I bought a chocolate bar made in Belgium on 21.06.2022 just yesterday. So even non-essential buisness is still on at the moment, it's just big brands don't want negative public attention, hence they pulled out or are pulling out. And still many of those were hoping to preserve their buisness in Russia to return later (talked with one lawyer from Moscow about it, though it was somewhere in May). There is also huge economic activity in Armenia and Kazakhstan, as these are the closest countries to Russia not under sanctiones, to enable trade and services through them.
So, as one guy a centurey and a half ago said "There is no crime that capital won't commit for 300% revenue".
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WOW, UK is going to give UA some warships. 2 trawlers for start (to clear potentional minefields) but there might be more coming. The ships they'll get at the start are HMS Blyth and HMS Ramsey.
I'm not sure about the extent of that, especially that UA doesn't really have much navy personnel and you need about 500 men to crew a cruiser and 300 to crew a destroyer. But, a few ships like that near Odessa would definitely give Russia a lot of headache as they could fire at ground targets and basically ravage Russian backline.
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On August 01 2022 22:18 PoulsenB wrote:Show nested quote +On August 01 2022 21:21 Harris1st wrote:On July 31 2022 15:18 Ghanburighan wrote:On July 31 2022 14:42 gobbledydook wrote:On July 31 2022 10:35 KwarK wrote:On July 31 2022 09:08 gobbledydook wrote:
Every day the experts claim Russia is running out of steam. They've been running out of steam for half a year now. I wonder when they're actually going to run out of steam. Did you miss that time they got pushed back from Kyiv, pushed back to the border near Kharkiv, pushed back to the outskirts of Kherson? The war has not ended yet unfortunately, so there is still some steam left. I wonder what it will take for them to concede and pull out. Or will it devolve into a stalemate where neither side can progress? The important thing is that UA can run out of steam too. They're the ones losing manpower and infrastructure, so they can choose to freeze the conflict to reduce losses. But, as they now have now finally established a manpower advantage for a few months, and HIMARS and western AA has mitigated most of RUs remaining equipment advantage, they'll likely try to recapture as much of what was lost in the south. But RU can easily retreat from some of the captured areas, claim the special operation is over and nothing happens to the Putin regime. The propaganda wheels keep turning just like when they pulled back from Kyiv and Kharkiv. For UA it's an existential struggle. If they don't regain control of the southern ports, their export economy will remain crippled. I think not even Putin can weather the storm that would follow. Ruining your country for absolutely nothing. And it wouldn't end with a retreat. Nobody in their right mind would make business with Russia for the next 5+ years, especially with this regime I think you underestimate the willingness of businesses to trade morals for money
But at the same time all that investment can just go poof because the Russian government decided to be dumb again.
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On August 01 2022 23:44 Manit0u wrote:
WOW, UK is going to give UA some warships. 2 trawlers for start (to clear potentional minefields) but there might be more coming. The ships they'll get at the start are HMS Blyth and HMS Ramsey.
I'm not sure about the extent of that, especially that UA doesn't really have much navy personnel and you need about 500 men to crew a cruiser and 300 to crew a destroyer. But, a few ships like that near Odessa would definitely give Russia a lot of headache as they could fire at ground targets and basically ravage Russian backline.
I don't understand how that is supposed to work. UA doesn't really have sailors or ports currently, and i doubt that any UA warships would be save in the black sea. Russia has proven large amounts of incompetence so far, but i still don't know if they are so incompetent to let a UA navy live.
Also, isn't a navy basically the last thing UA currently needs?
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In my eyes, these ships mean the only way they are operation is with UK personnel manning them. That means these ships can't be attacked. But that would also mean this is the UK drastically increasing their involvement and they would be the first country to go this far. Based UK.
It feels more likely to me this simply isn't happening. But if it *is* happening, there will be UK sailors on them.
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Maybe this part of the grain deal, and they will be used to clear shipping lanes?
Russia has shitton of anti-ship weaponry. I have a hard time believing any singular or small number of vessels can operate for long that close to their land/fleet.
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Russian Federation610 Posts
UA need thrawlers to clear mines they placed at the start of the war to protect Odessa from potentional landing.
Not even mentioning Russian anti-ship (both aerial and naval) capabilities in Black Sea, training crew even for some frigate would take a long time, especially considering the fact that UA had only one ship of such class before (Hetman Sagaidachniy), and she was old Soviet junk. There is a reason why Ukrainians sank her themselves.
So they have very little experience operating any kind of such ships. Plus, what's the point? 1-2 frigates with no control over air won't contest Black Sea fleet even after the loss of Moskva. To defend your own shores is one thing, to contest the waters and attempt attacks from the sea is a different matter.
And if UK involves its own personell in this, they might as well send troops to Ukraine and declare war to Russia. Something tells me they don't want to do it just yet.
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On August 01 2022 22:32 Ardias wrote:Show nested quote +On August 01 2022 21:21 Harris1st wrote:On July 31 2022 15:18 Ghanburighan wrote:On July 31 2022 14:42 gobbledydook wrote:On July 31 2022 10:35 KwarK wrote:On July 31 2022 09:08 gobbledydook wrote:
Every day the experts claim Russia is running out of steam. They've been running out of steam for half a year now. I wonder when they're actually going to run out of steam. Did you miss that time they got pushed back from Kyiv, pushed back to the border near Kharkiv, pushed back to the outskirts of Kherson? The war has not ended yet unfortunately, so there is still some steam left. I wonder what it will take for them to concede and pull out. Or will it devolve into a stalemate where neither side can progress? The important thing is that UA can run out of steam too. They're the ones losing manpower and infrastructure, so they can choose to freeze the conflict to reduce losses. But, as they now have now finally established a manpower advantage for a few months, and HIMARS and western AA has mitigated most of RUs remaining equipment advantage, they'll likely try to recapture as much of what was lost in the south. But RU can easily retreat from some of the captured areas, claim the special operation is over and nothing happens to the Putin regime. The propaganda wheels keep turning just like when they pulled back from Kyiv and Kharkiv. For UA it's an existential struggle. If they don't regain control of the southern ports, their export economy will remain crippled. I think not even Putin can weather the storm that would follow. Ruining your country for absolutely nothing. And it wouldn't end with a retreat. Nobody in their right mind would make business with Russia for the next 5+ years, especially with this regime I bought a chocolate bar made in Belgium on 21.06.2022 just yesterday. So even non-essential buisness is still on at the moment, it's just big brands don't want negative public attention, hence they pulled out or are pulling out. And still many of those were hoping to preserve their buisness in Russia to return later (talked with one lawyer from Moscow about it, though it was somewhere in May). There is also huge economic activity in Armenia and Kazakhstan, as these are the closest countries to Russia not under sanctiones, to enable trade and services through them. So, as one guy a centurey and a half ago said "There is no crime that capital won't commit for 300% revenue".
The point is that it has increased risk for companies that want to invest in Russia. Some companies also invest in Congo but that doesn't make it an attractive country to invest in. Companies have had to write off billions because Putin was stupid enough to start a war. For many companies the risk will be too large and any company that does want to invest in Russia will want to be compensated for the increased geopolitical risk. You're fooling yourself if you think the war won't have serious medium to long term economic effects.
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On August 02 2022 01:38 Silvanel wrote:
Maybe this part of the grain deal, and they will be used to clear shipping lanes?
Russia has shitton of anti-ship weaponry. I have a hard time believing any singular or small number of vessels can operate for long that close to their land/fleet.
The only way these ships stay afloat is if they have members of the UK within them, meaning Russia won't dare to sink them.
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On August 02 2022 00:48 Simberto wrote:Show nested quote +On August 01 2022 23:44 Manit0u wrote:
WOW, UK is going to give UA some warships. 2 trawlers for start (to clear potentional minefields) but there might be more coming. The ships they'll get at the start are HMS Blyth and HMS Ramsey.
I'm not sure about the extent of that, especially that UA doesn't really have much navy personnel and you need about 500 men to crew a cruiser and 300 to crew a destroyer. But, a few ships like that near Odessa would definitely give Russia a lot of headache as they could fire at ground targets and basically ravage Russian backline. I don't understand how that is supposed to work. UA doesn't really have sailors or ports currently, and i doubt that any UA warships would be save in the black sea. Russia has proven large amounts of incompetence so far, but i still don't know if they are so incompetent to let a UA navy live. Also, isn't a navy basically the last thing UA currently needs?
Also the treaty that Turkey invoked to block off Russian ships from entering would prevent Ukrainian vessels from entering as well, right?
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As far as I remember the Montreux convention gives Turkey the right to do pretty much whatever they want in wartime. They can stop the Russian ships and allow Ukrainian ships. But they will not do such a thing.
Erdogan prefers to play the 'balancing' act. Which is actually extortion of both sides.
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Russian Federation610 Posts
On August 02 2022 01:49 RvB wrote:Show nested quote +On August 01 2022 22:32 Ardias wrote:On August 01 2022 21:21 Harris1st wrote:On July 31 2022 15:18 Ghanburighan wrote:On July 31 2022 14:42 gobbledydook wrote:On July 31 2022 10:35 KwarK wrote:On July 31 2022 09:08 gobbledydook wrote:
Every day the experts claim Russia is running out of steam. They've been running out of steam for half a year now. I wonder when they're actually going to run out of steam. Did you miss that time they got pushed back from Kyiv, pushed back to the border near Kharkiv, pushed back to the outskirts of Kherson? The war has not ended yet unfortunately, so there is still some steam left. I wonder what it will take for them to concede and pull out. Or will it devolve into a stalemate where neither side can progress? The important thing is that UA can run out of steam too. They're the ones losing manpower and infrastructure, so they can choose to freeze the conflict to reduce losses. But, as they now have now finally established a manpower advantage for a few months, and HIMARS and western AA has mitigated most of RUs remaining equipment advantage, they'll likely try to recapture as much of what was lost in the south. But RU can easily retreat from some of the captured areas, claim the special operation is over and nothing happens to the Putin regime. The propaganda wheels keep turning just like when they pulled back from Kyiv and Kharkiv. For UA it's an existential struggle. If they don't regain control of the southern ports, their export economy will remain crippled. I think not even Putin can weather the storm that would follow. Ruining your country for absolutely nothing. And it wouldn't end with a retreat. Nobody in their right mind would make business with Russia for the next 5+ years, especially with this regime I bought a chocolate bar made in Belgium on 21.06.2022 just yesterday. So even non-essential buisness is still on at the moment, it's just big brands don't want negative public attention, hence they pulled out or are pulling out. And still many of those were hoping to preserve their buisness in Russia to return later (talked with one lawyer from Moscow about it, though it was somewhere in May). There is also huge economic activity in Armenia and Kazakhstan, as these are the closest countries to Russia not under sanctiones, to enable trade and services through them. So, as one guy a centurey and a half ago said "There is no crime that capital won't commit for 300% revenue". The point is that it has increased risk for companies that want to invest in Russia. Some companies also invest in Congo but that doesn't make it an attractive country to invest in. Companies have had to write off billions because Putin was stupid enough to start a war. For many companies the risk will be too large and any company that does want to invest in Russia will want to be compensated for the increased geopolitical risk. You're fooling yourself if you think the war won't have serious medium to long term economic effects.
Of course, but there is still difference between "higher risk investment" and "no investment at all". Plus I assumed that the definition "to make business" also includes buying and selling stuff. Though I agree that investment climate is much worse now, I was mainly arguing moral side of things, and gave an example of a still existing non-essential import into Russia from Europe. You can't simply write off market of 150 million people even with not that high GDP per capita.
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EPT
