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On July 05 2026 18:13 hitthat wrote:I doubt they aren't. I believe the warnings about armed provocation to be true. If any of this will happen, answer must be swift and brutal. If any artilery piece will attack targets in Poland from Belarus or Kaliningrad oblast, it should be destroyed without regard to consequences. We cannot afford the greenmen scenario from Lugansk to repeat, where our forces are attacked by both saboteurs and by artillery behind border.
I don't think so. Belarus has already made it clear they don't want to be dragged into this war and Kaliningrad is undefendable.
If Putin were to lose Kaliningrad oblast it would be a PR disaster for him.
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On July 05 2026 22:38 Manit0u wrote:Show nested quote +On July 05 2026 18:13 hitthat wrote:On July 04 2026 21:33 Manit0u wrote:
And I doubt they're stupid enough (...) I doubt they aren't. I believe the warnings about armed provocation to be true. If any of this will happen, answer must be swift and brutal. If any artilery piece will attack targets in Poland from Belarus or Kaliningrad oblast, it should be destroyed without regard to consequences. We cannot afford the greenmen scenario from Lugansk to repeat, where our forces are attacked by both saboteurs and by artillery behind border. I don't think so. Belarus has already made it clear they don't want to be dragged into this war and Kaliningrad is undefendable. If Putin were to lose Kaliningrad oblast it would be a PR disaster for him.
It would be best for everyone if Kaliningrad would declare independance :D We can all dream
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It wouldn't make a lot of sense from the local perspective. They're like Transnistria, but in a way better position. Their situation would be much worse without the funding from Moscow.
The region is also full of Russians and declaring independence wouldn't change the fact that the West has finally stopped trusting Russians and their Mini-Me-s like Belarus after 2022 even though this should happen before 2014. The Russian populations are rarely interested in the Western values, and that's already verifiable by their relations with the Baltic states. To a degree, it's understandable because the Balts are even more hostile to Russian than Poles, but we shouldn't forget why they became hostile in the first place.
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On July 06 2026 01:31 Sent. wrote:
It wouldn't make a lot of sense from the local perspective. They're like Transnistria, but in a way better position. Their situation would be much worse without the funding from Moscow.
The region is also full of Russians and declaring independence wouldn't change the fact that the West has finally stopped trusting Russians and their Mini-Me-s like Belarus after 2022 even though this should happen before 2014. The Russian populations are rarely interested in the Western values, and that's already verifiable by their relations with the Baltic states. To a degree, it's understandable because the Balts are even more hostile to Russian than Poles, but we shouldn't forget why they became hostile in the first place.
I would make an important distinction here that the baltics are not hostile towards russians. They are distrustful towards them, but they are not hostile. The russian speaking minorities in the respective countries have it fairly good and are well accepted as long as they aren't idiots. Russian state propaganda keeps spouting that nonsense, which is why especially many of the older russian speaking minorities feel that way, but as long as you don't go around claiming the soviet union was great, or questioning their right to sovereignty, you will generally have a good time living in the baltics as a russian speaker.
Source: Not russian/russian speaking, but had some extended stays in the baltics as well as knowing a fair number of russian speaker living there, or who have relatives there. The only ones to claim that the balts are hostile towards them are the older ones that watch russian TV, and the younger morons who will tell you that the soviet union and russia did great things for the country. If you are living in say estonia, born and raised there, but make no effort to learn the language yeah ofc they won't trust you.
Don't spout any russian propaganda nonsense and speak half decent estonian and they might claim you as estonian even if your passport says otherwise. Esp. estonians very much give off vibes of "don't bother me and I won't bother you". The state of russia they ofc strongly dislike, but nobody likes shitty neighbours who still refuse to acknowledge that they killed your grandparents, or that your yard really does belong to you and not them.
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How wild is it that Russia is importing 13% of their domestic gasoline from India. Sell India discounted oil, India refines it and sells them it back and premium prices. The ag industry, food transport many of the things you just need to survive are raising the alarms, with the response being, don't worry government has it all under control. 3 day military operation is working as planned.
As for the Russians any where, if you got them out from under Putin and that propaganda machine they would become regular humans like all the other soviet state people did likely in the same time. Sooner is better, but I'm now firmly in the empire is dying camp. The only question is if Russia becomes influenced by Europe or a vassal of China. Or maybe even like Germany with a split.
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On July 06 2026 02:39 Billyboy wrote:
How wild is it that Russia is importing 13% of their domestic gasoline from India. Sell India discounted oil, India refines it and sells them it back and premium prices. The ag industry, food transport many of the things you just need to survive are raising the alarms, with the response being, don't worry government has it all under control. 3 day military operation is working as planned.
As for the Russians any where, if you got them out from under Putin and that propaganda machine they would become regular humans like all the other soviet state people did likely in the same time. Sooner is better, but I'm now firmly in the empire is dying camp. The only question is if Russia becomes influenced by Europe or a vassal of China. Or maybe even like Germany with a split.
History shows that smaller is more efficient at fighting corruption, but knowing Russians, it's really build in them not to divide that country.
Clearly, there would be quite quickly a European state if Saint-Petersbourg would create it's own state, it was pretty much very occidental last time I went.
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On July 06 2026 04:29 0x64 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 06 2026 02:39 Billyboy wrote:
How wild is it that Russia is importing 13% of their domestic gasoline from India. Sell India discounted oil, India refines it and sells them it back and premium prices. The ag industry, food transport many of the things you just need to survive are raising the alarms, with the response being, don't worry government has it all under control. 3 day military operation is working as planned.
As for the Russians any where, if you got them out from under Putin and that propaganda machine they would become regular humans like all the other soviet state people did likely in the same time. Sooner is better, but I'm now firmly in the empire is dying camp. The only question is if Russia becomes influenced by Europe or a vassal of China. Or maybe even like Germany with a split.
History shows that smaller is more efficient at fighting corruption, but knowing Russians, it's really build in them not to divide that country. Clearly, there would be quite quickly a European state if Saint-Petersbourg would create it's own state, it was pretty much very occidental last time I went.
Well, Poland could also welcome Królewiec back into the fold 
In other news, Kremlin spokeperson Dmitrij Pieskov has changed the rhetoric. For the first time he has officially called the situation in Ukraine "war" instead of "special military operation" and is warning Poland.
This can mean that they're preparing their own public for protracted war and escalation of tension with the West.
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EPT
