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On July 02 2026 15:14 maybenexttime wrote:Show nested quote +On July 02 2026 12:01 ETisME wrote:
Japan PM always visits the yasukuni shrine, a lot of "deep regret" from Korea and other Asian countries but thats about it.
Ukraine needs its soldiers, what do we expect them to do? Recall and suspend them?
I understand the Poland stance, but until they join in the war effort with boots on ground, I think it's fair to say all these should all be just a "deep regret" statement. What Japan is doing is equally stupid. So far the fallout is limited to diplomacy, but if Ukraine refuses to come clean, Poland is likely to veto their EU accession. There is speculation that corrupt Ukrainian oligarchs are inflaming the tensions precisely for that reason. Joining the EU would entail severely limiting their power, and by pushing Poland to veto Ukraine's accession, they would have a nice scapegoat.
Honest question: What do these corrupt Ukrainian oligarchs want, like what is the goal? I mean this is already undermining the war effort. Do they want Russia to win?
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On July 02 2026 17:23 ETisME wrote:Show nested quote +On July 02 2026 17:12 KwarK wrote:On July 02 2026 16:58 ETisME wrote:On July 02 2026 15:14 maybenexttime wrote:On July 02 2026 12:01 ETisME wrote:
Japan PM always visits the yasukuni shrine, a lot of "deep regret" from Korea and other Asian countries but thats about it.
Ukraine needs its soldiers, what do we expect them to do? Recall and suspend them?
I understand the Poland stance, but until they join in the war effort with boots on ground, I think it's fair to say all these should all be just a "deep regret" statement. What Japan is doing is equally stupid. So far the fallout is limited to diplomacy, but if Ukraine refuses to come clean, Poland is likely to veto their EU accession. There is speculation that corrupt Ukrainian oligarchs are inflaming the tensions precisely for that reason. Joining the EU would entail severely limiting their power, and by pushing Poland to veto Ukraine's accession, they would have a nice scapegoat. As someone from Asia, I can tell you most of us think EU should be begging Ukraine to join it, not the other way around. Frankly what more credentials do Ukraine need to prove it is worthy to join? I mean there's all the actual EU requirements that they don't meet. This isn't pulling a sword from a stone. Did you not know that? If this was under normal circumstances, sure. What do you think EU-Ukraine Association Agreement is? Why do you think it exists? the EU should be helping Ukraine to get in because it should want Ukraine to be in. It's literally fighting Russia and has the best drone tech and military experience on the field.
Those are arguments in favor of integrating Ukraine into NATO. Not the european union.
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Disclaimer - these are just my thoughts, not a stance against Ukraine joining EU.
Letting Ukraine into EU - with freedom of movement - might kinda hurt Ukraine's rebuilding effort after the war in a way.
If someone is not super-patriotic, and they can go anywhere in EU, and now there are diasporas of Ukrainian immigrants and refugees in many countries that can help them with moving there - maybe these people will prefer to build their new life in Poland / Germany / Sweden instead of half-ruined motherland.
Can't this create an outgoing flow of workforce out of Ukraine into EU countries?
I'm already not sure how many people will want to go back to the eastern areas which are in especially bad shape and were under occupation for long time. It will be harder to get things going there and get comfortable - if my house / appartment has been destroyed, who will rebuild it and how much time it can take?
And it's close to the border so, you know, can be risky or at least less comfortable emotionally.
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I have a few thoughts.
First is that it's very disappointing that folks who I, from my limited readings of their posts or interactions with find generally rational and normal people seem to be up at arms over this nationalistic, historical bullshit that has 0 things to do with the real world or present times, unfortunately, since it's working on them it must be very effective on the PiS crowds.
As compared to Ukrainians who I work with who really don't care about this and just care about, you know, staying safe and surviving and are fairly critical of their government's actions, but still get them given that this is about appeasing people who are the ones putting their lives on the line.
From my experience, a lot of people who left Croatia during the war came back and rebuilt, people who are forced out of their homes usually want to come back, they usually also take refuge in richer countries and make money that they couldn't at home and this helps them with the rebuilding, plus, there are a lot of goverment subsidies and programs to encourage re-migration after wars like this.
On the other hand, the biggest chunk of our dwindling population did bounce after we joined EU, so, overall I'd say that the whole thing might net out about neutral population wise, but there are so many other, insanely beneficial advantages of being in EU that I'm all for Ukraine ascending ASAP.
In the end, this all started with Euromaidan, it would be nice if it ended with actual Euro integration.
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On July 02 2026 17:50 Harris1st wrote:Show nested quote +On July 02 2026 15:14 maybenexttime wrote:On July 02 2026 12:01 ETisME wrote:
Japan PM always visits the yasukuni shrine, a lot of "deep regret" from Korea and other Asian countries but thats about it.
Ukraine needs its soldiers, what do we expect them to do? Recall and suspend them?
I understand the Poland stance, but until they join in the war effort with boots on ground, I think it's fair to say all these should all be just a "deep regret" statement. What Japan is doing is equally stupid. So far the fallout is limited to diplomacy, but if Ukraine refuses to come clean, Poland is likely to veto their EU accession. There is speculation that corrupt Ukrainian oligarchs are inflaming the tensions precisely for that reason. Joining the EU would entail severely limiting their power, and by pushing Poland to veto Ukraine's accession, they would have a nice scapegoat. Honest question: What do these corrupt Ukrainian oligarchs want, like what is the goal? I mean this is already undermining the war effort. Do they want Russia to win?
It is looking very unlikely that Russia will win. So they start thinking about what happens after the conflict freezes or Russia agrees to some reasonable deal.
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On July 02 2026 17:50 Harris1st wrote:Show nested quote +On July 02 2026 15:14 maybenexttime wrote:On July 02 2026 12:01 ETisME wrote:
Japan PM always visits the yasukuni shrine, a lot of "deep regret" from Korea and other Asian countries but thats about it.
Ukraine needs its soldiers, what do we expect them to do? Recall and suspend them?
I understand the Poland stance, but until they join in the war effort with boots on ground, I think it's fair to say all these should all be just a "deep regret" statement. What Japan is doing is equally stupid. So far the fallout is limited to diplomacy, but if Ukraine refuses to come clean, Poland is likely to veto their EU accession. There is speculation that corrupt Ukrainian oligarchs are inflaming the tensions precisely for that reason. Joining the EU would entail severely limiting their power, and by pushing Poland to veto Ukraine's accession, they would have a nice scapegoat. Honest question: What do these corrupt Ukrainian oligarchs want, like what is the goal? I mean this is already undermining the war effort. Do they want Russia to win?
Some of those oligarchs probably figure that they can enrich themselves more in a terribly corrupt country than as honest businessmen in an EU member state. This is just speculation, though.
As far as I know, the tensions haven't affected the war effort yet.
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On July 02 2026 19:54 justanothertownie wrote:Show nested quote +On July 02 2026 17:23 ETisME wrote:On July 02 2026 17:12 KwarK wrote:On July 02 2026 16:58 ETisME wrote:On July 02 2026 15:14 maybenexttime wrote:On July 02 2026 12:01 ETisME wrote:
Japan PM always visits the yasukuni shrine, a lot of "deep regret" from Korea and other Asian countries but thats about it.
Ukraine needs its soldiers, what do we expect them to do? Recall and suspend them?
I understand the Poland stance, but until they join in the war effort with boots on ground, I think it's fair to say all these should all be just a "deep regret" statement. What Japan is doing is equally stupid. So far the fallout is limited to diplomacy, but if Ukraine refuses to come clean, Poland is likely to veto their EU accession. There is speculation that corrupt Ukrainian oligarchs are inflaming the tensions precisely for that reason. Joining the EU would entail severely limiting their power, and by pushing Poland to veto Ukraine's accession, they would have a nice scapegoat. As someone from Asia, I can tell you most of us think EU should be begging Ukraine to join it, not the other way around. Frankly what more credentials do Ukraine need to prove it is worthy to join? I mean there's all the actual EU requirements that they don't meet. This isn't pulling a sword from a stone. Did you not know that? If this was under normal circumstances, sure. What do you think EU-Ukraine Association Agreement is? Why do you think it exists? the EU should be helping Ukraine to get in because it should want Ukraine to be in. It's literally fighting Russia and has the best drone tech and military experience on the field. Those are arguments in favor of integrating Ukraine into NATO. Not the european union.
Or both.
Europe is already working on rebuilding its own military, I think it's' a matter of time when they will have a shared army.
Not to mention it's already procuring and coordinating joint capabilities through The European Defence Agency.
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That's pretty much the only scenario NATO has had to plan over the last 4 years, they've reinforced everything to make it as unlikely as possible. They know that in desperation, just as he is now going with the "see how evil Ukranians really are, bombing our infrastructure", they will also want the "see how NATO secretly always wanted a war to destroy us"
On the other hand, Russia might slowly getting ready in their mind to move away from Putin. Putin is the weakest he has ever been in the internal front, but what's keeping him in power is that everyone that has ever opposed him, has been killed. So until the three factions that have been executing those killings all agrees at the same time that they won't fight each others and that it is time for a different Russia...
They obviously are scared of getting the blame after the fall.
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On July 03 2026 18:36 0x64 wrote:That's pretty much the only scenario NATO has had to plan over the last 4 years
I mean, my gear is packed, and I know which new job I suddenly have if Russia invades Poland tomorrow. So that part is very much indeed true
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That would be a really stupid move on the side of Russia, as it would give a legitimate reason for NATO to get involved in Ukraine directly instead of helping in a roundabout way.
As is, NATO forces could just make their way into Kaliningrad and what would Russia do about it?
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I can only imagine the people in Poland trying to figure out exactly what would be enough to provoke them to invoke Article 5. Too soon or too late and NATO dies with barely a whimper, and/or we stumble into a nuclear apocalypse.
"Little green men" with some drones and plausible deniability near a border seems to be right in that area where everyone just has to look the other way/respond indirectly.
From what I gather, Polish forces wouldn't need Article 5 to repel something like that, but they can only explain away so much internal damage as munitions missing their targets or whatever before it gets ridiculous and NATO has been dramatically undermined.
I like the sound of the speculation that this is some sort of an off-ramp for Putin but that also feels a bit overly optimistic.
Not very comforting knowing that whatever happens, I have the stupidest most selfish guy at the table with the biggest guns that is basically just a geriatric Freudian id ostensibly representing me and my interests.
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A few observations.
First, the warnings before the full scale invasion were made under Biden, when US Intelligence services were ran by much more serious people, now you have Marco Rubio as the National Security Adviser which is one of 10 roles he fulfills, the acting DNI, replacing a cult leader puppet Tulsi Gabbard is a human shaped potato meme stock scammer Bill Pulte, so I would really be hesitant to give the same weight to this warning as the one made back then.
Second, there were already provocations, drones hitting buildings, missiles going awry and even killing civilians in Poland, in all cases Russia was quick to deny everything, I really very much doubt that they'd actually send any troops because there really is nothing they can gain from that.
I don't think they want to risk any sort of real NATO retaliation because NATO doctrine would have to involve a no-Fly zone which would include destroying a breathtaking amount of Russian AA all around Ukraine and Poland and even if no Russians died during this the already exhausted AA would be completely obliterated. Even if NATO just left it at that it would allow Ukrainian air force to wreck havoc later and would be a very stupid idea for Russia.
I don't think there is any amount of propaganda or narrative justifications from Putin that would be worth all that.
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United States44398 Posts
NATO as an alliance has never been weaker, even if many of the members are stronger than they have been.
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On July 03 2026 19:32 GreenHorizons wrote:I can only imagine the people in Poland trying to figure out exactly what would be enough to provoke them to invoke Article 5. Too soon or too late and NATO dies with barely a whimper, and/or we stumble into a nuclear apocalypse. "Little green men" with some drones and plausible deniability near a border seems to be right in that area where everyone just has to look the other way/respond indirectly. From what I gather, Polish forces wouldn't need Article 5 to repel something like that, but they can only explain away so much internal damage as munitions missing their targets or whatever before it gets ridiculous and NATO has been dramatically undermined. I like the sound of the speculation that this is some sort of an off-ramp for Putin but that also feels a bit overly optimistic. Not very comforting knowing that whatever happens, I have the stupidest most selfish guy at the table with the biggest guns that is basically just a geriatric Freudian id ostensibly representing me and my interests.
If the Russians want escalation it's best not to give it to them. As long as Poland (and it's regional European allies) can comfortably hold of any major damage you don't have to lie about anything.
Just straight up tell the people exactly what's happening. Russia is trying to escalate and we are not going to take the bait.
And if Russia is trying to escalate it's for a specific reason.
It could be
1) they have realised that they can't win and can't even take all of Donbass as Putin has promised so they need an off ramp. Putin has always been an "escalate to de escalate" kind of guy. Provoking Europe and/or NATO lets him sell an immediate freeze to the conflict and then an end to the war.
Reason to not take the bait: This means Russia is weak and letting the conflict continue so Russia is instead forced to negotiate directly with Ukraine is far better. It will probably lead to a better outcome for Ukraine but it will also likely lead to a much more stable peace. And it would avoid the potential of a war between Russia and Europe (that Russia would lose, which could lead to nuclear escalation).
Even if Russia commits fairly serious military resources Poland and allies can comfortably hold it and at that point the front in Ukraine would likely collapse.
2) They want cover for their rumored mass mobilisation in October after the elections.
Reason to not take the bait: It's a much harder sell to the Russian people.
3) Putin wants some justification to drop a nuke in Ukraine.
Reason to not take the bait: Kind of obvious.
I can't think of much else. But just defending and then doing the bare minimum in order to not give Russia what they want seems the most prudent option.
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There have been MANY Russian acts of war that are known against NATO countries as far as blatant spying on NATO targets and probing against defences. I don’t think they will do any attacks that kill people right now, but they are continuously probing to find where that red line is and so far it keeps being further than they thought.
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United States44398 Posts
On July 03 2026 23:41 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:
I can't think of much else.
The big one is to trigger a leadership crisis in NATO. Right now the de facto leader of NATO has declared that eastward NATO expansion is a mistake, that he doesn't think those countries should be in NATO, that he thinks they're part of the Russian sphere, and that he wants to punish NATO for not invading Iran. There's no obvious successor to the American role in NATO. The entire framework could fall apart if Russia declares even a small scale challenge and NATO isn't capable of coordinating an alliance level response.
Russia doesn't need to defeat Poland to defeat NATO.
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The biggest and simplest reason Russia will never do anything to any other country is that the country has only to allow ukraine to launch drones from their territory and Russia lose the other half of it's petrol production. Imagine drones launch from Estonia... They already can't stop those that flies all the way through their country.
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On July 03 2026 19:06 Manit0u wrote:That would be a really stupid move on the side of Russia, as it would give a legitimate reason for NATO to get involved in Ukraine directly instead of helping in a roundabout way. As is, NATO forces could just make their way into Kaliningrad and what would Russia do about it?
Invading Ukraine was also an incredibly stupid move and I was convinced they wouldn't do it back when they were massing troops on the border. We can easily find rational reasons why Russia shouldn't do any of what it's doing but Russia isn't led by rational people.
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On July 04 2026 00:53 Dan HH wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2026 19:06 Manit0u wrote:That would be a really stupid move on the side of Russia, as it would give a legitimate reason for NATO to get involved in Ukraine directly instead of helping in a roundabout way. As is, NATO forces could just make their way into Kaliningrad and what would Russia do about it? Invading Ukraine was also an incredibly stupid move and I was convinced they wouldn't do it back when they were massing troops on the border. We can easily find rational reasons why Russia shouldn't do any of what it's doing but Russia isn't led by rational people.
What happened kind of proved them right, that they could do it without any external forces intervening to defend. They just sucked. Imagine if they had used the power they had in an efficient way the first year. Looking back, it's really is a miracle that Ukraine survived even with the weapons provided, it was always the bare minimum, at a very slow rate. I think Sweden alone saved Ukraine in the beginning with the javelins.
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EPT
