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On JuNe 22 2022 17:20 Magic Powers wrote: According to the battle lines seen from maps, Answer/574976?yFast=On" target="_blank">Russia Has made small progress in the Severodonetsk region in the last few Days, so maybe they're reaching a Point where they'll be able to close the encirclement. As Has been discussed in this thread, this outcome was feared by analysts a few weeks ago, but it's not yet definitive.
On the other hand there's good evidence that Russia is relying on outdated equipment to assist the completion of this part of the operation, Which would indicate that - successful or not - soon they won't have enough heavy machinery left to continue their offensive war efforts. To me as a layman the analysis in the video below of the T-62 looks relatively comprehensive. A small portion of these tanks was sent out from storage and they're much more vulnerable. I don't have information on where exactly they're being used in battle, so I can't say How exactly Russia is using them. My amateur guess from the articles and comments I've read is that they're likely meant to heLp hold freshly gained territory, while the more modern tanks are being used for advancement.
This Lithuania thing has made me realize we’re already in another round of the Cold War. Starting to think it won’t be so cold for long. But I don’t think it’ll be ww3. Russia simply doesn’t have enough international support.
None of Russia’s allies will go to war thinking “I bet we will win”. It would be a suicide pact
I mean this might be the epilogue of the cold war with the soviet union now fighting a post-collapse conflict over the infrastructure that was there when it was a unified empire. It will just result in what was left of the soviet union being burned and broken. Whatever Ukraine is after this will become apart of the EU economic zone and Russia will become a Chinese vessel state that with wither until it becomes just another failed state with natural resources it can't use.
On June 23 2022 10:06 SSIII wrote: don't underestimate Russia, she will never be a Chinese vessel state. China stands neutral in this war, do not get us into this mess.
After this war no one will want any products made in russia. Their millionaires are fleeing like crazy and anyone with any skills are trying to evacuate the country any way they can. They stopped educating people a decade ago to keep a military funded that is struggling to advance a few hundred kilometers into Ukraine.
No one is going to buy Russian gear for anything when even china has more credibility despite never fighting a war with advanced tech.
On June 22 2022 17:20 Magic Powers wrote: On the other hand there's good evidence that Russia is relying on outdated equipment to assist the completion of this part of the operation, which would indicate that - successful or not - soon they won't have enough heavy machinery left to continue their offensive war efforts. To me as a layman the analysis in the video below of the T-62 looks relatively comprehensive. A small portion of these tanks was sent out from storage and they're much more vulnerable. I don't have information on where exactly they're being used in battle, so I can't say how exactly Russia is using them. My amateur guess from the articles and comments I've read is that they're likely meant to help hold freshly gained territory, while the more modern tanks are being used for advancement.
Tanks have been used as fire support since tanks first existed. A javelin doesn't care whether a tank is a t-90 or a t-62, they are both just targets (ignoring t-90 supposed abilties to dazzle and assuming they are ever used in numbers), and there is no indication of any tank on tank battle in the war so far. Could very well occur, but would be very minor. of course there are other varying layers of protection to areas other than the top, but as more and more sophisticated antitank weapons are supplied to ukraine, the less relveant this becomes. This is a war where towed anti tank guns have seen use somehow of all things, which a T-62 should have armour protected against and in the end a working tank is still a tank even if it is 50+ years old. They are still a protected, tracked and powerful direct fire weapon at the end of the day.
Bad news from the Severodonetsk region: Hirske and Zolote (south of Lysychansk) have apparently fallen. This makes a successful encirclement much more likely. The trend is very clearly speaking in favor of that outcome. I hope Ukraine still has a retreat plan from Severodonetsk. Or perhaps they've decided to stall just like in Mariupol, I don't know.
On June 23 2022 10:06 SSIII wrote: don't underestimate Russia, she will never be a Chinese vessel state. China stands neutral in this war, do not get us into this mess.
The least China could do is provide humanitarian aid. Frankly, what China is doing is pathetic. Your country is aspiring to be a world superpower yet somehow managed to donate a fraction of what Estonia has, a country with just over 1M people.
On June 23 2022 10:06 SSIII wrote: don't underestimate Russia, she will never be a Chinese vessel state. China stands neutral in this war, do not get us into this mess.
The least China could do is provide humanitarian aid. Frankly, what China is doing is pathetic. Your country is aspiring to be a world superpower yet somehow managed to donate a fraction of what Estonia has, a country with just over 1M people.
Why should "authoritarian country turning totalitarian", as you called it in China thread, which is at odds with US, send any kind of support to the US allied country? Plus China is the main benefactor of this war, the longer it drags, the better for them. Russia start to divert trade to China, EU economy is under heavy pressure due to the decreased imports and increased prices on fossil fuels and US has to divert most of its attention and send a bunch of military assets there. Plus China now can calculate, based on reaction to Russia starting the war, what West might do and might not, if Taiwan crisis would escalate.
Meanwhile, the village of Volcheyarovka,12km southwest of Lysychansk seem to be at least partially taken by Russian forces. If it's captured, the last route to Lysychansk will be under direct fire.
On June 23 2022 10:06 SSIII wrote: don't underestimate Russia, she will never be a Chinese vessel state. China stands neutral in this war, do not get us into this mess.
The least China could do is provide humanitarian aid. Frankly, what China is doing is pathetic. Your country is aspiring to be a world superpower yet somehow managed to donate a fraction of what Estonia has, a country with just over 1M people.
Why should "authoritarian country turning totalitarian", as you called it in China thread, which is at odds with US, send any kind of support to the US allied country? Plus China is the main benefactor of this war, the longer it drags, the better for them. Russia start to divert trade to China, EU economy is under heavy pressure due to the decreased imports and increased prices on fossil fuels and US has to divert most of its attention and send a bunch of military assets there. Plus China now can calculate, based on reaction to Russia starting the war, what West might do and might not, if Taiwan crisis would escalate.
Meanwhile, the village of Volcheyarovka,12km southwest of Lysychansk seem to be at least partially taken by Russian forces. If it's captured, the last route to Lysychansk will be under direct fire.
China had a deal signed with Ukraine and Poland for an Odessa-Gdanks rail line that would deliver goods from the port into the baltic sea(and the Schengen) within 4 days. They also were starting a booming trade for Ukrainian steel out of Marupol.
We've covered already why china would never actually invade Taiwan and why its just a propaganda tool for keeping civil unrest down.
On June 23 2022 10:06 SSIII wrote: don't underestimate Russia, she will never be a Chinese vessel state. China stands neutral in this war, do not get us into this mess.
The least China could do is provide humanitarian aid. Frankly, what China is doing is pathetic. Your country is aspiring to be a world superpower yet somehow managed to donate a fraction of what Estonia has, a country with just over 1M people.
Why should "authoritarian country turning totalitarian", as you called it in China thread, which is at odds with US, send any kind of support to the US allied country? Plus China is the main benefactor of this war, the longer it drags, the better for them. Russia start to divert trade to China, EU economy is under heavy pressure due to the decreased imports and increased prices on fossil fuels and US has to divert most of its attention and send a bunch of military assets there. Plus China now can calculate, based on reaction to Russia starting the war, what West might do and might not, if Taiwan crisis would escalate.
Meanwhile, the village of Volcheyarovka,12km southwest of Lysychansk seem to be at least partially taken by Russian forces. If it's captured, the last route to Lysychansk will be under direct fire.
China had a deal signed with Ukraine and Poland for an Odessa-Gdanks rail line that would deliver goods from the port into the baltic sea(and the Schengen) within 4 days. They also were starting a booming trade for Ukrainian steel out of Marupol.
We've covered already why china would never actually invade Taiwan and why its just a propaganda tool for keeping civil unrest down.
After Ukraine government screwed up Chinese investors on something around 8 billion dollars with Motor Sich deal, which was also involving sensitive military tech, that US apparently didn't want to give to China, the latter probably stands colder towards Ukraine and deals struck with it. And since EU banned steel and iron import from Russia, I guess it will be turned to China anyway.
On June 23 2022 10:06 SSIII wrote: don't underestimate Russia, she will never be a Chinese vessel state. China stands neutral in this war, do not get us into this mess.
The least China could do is provide humanitarian aid. Frankly, what China is doing is pathetic. Your country is aspiring to be a world superpower yet somehow managed to donate a fraction of what Estonia has, a country with just over 1M people.
Why should "authoritarian country turning totalitarian", as you called it in China thread, which is at odds with US, send any kind of support to the US allied country? Plus China is the main benefactor of this war, the longer it drags, the better for them. Russia start to divert trade to China, EU economy is under heavy pressure due to the decreased imports and increased prices on fossil fuels and US has to divert most of its attention and send a bunch of military assets there. Plus China now can calculate, based on reaction to Russia starting the war, what West might do and might not, if Taiwan crisis would escalate.
Meanwhile, the village of Volcheyarovka,12km southwest of Lysychansk seem to be at least partially taken by Russian forces. If it's captured, the last route to Lysychansk will be under direct fire.
Because you can't aspire to be a world superpower without buying a lot of good will. The US became the sole world superpower because it was a desirable outcome for many, many countries. The US did a lot to help many countries to become prosperous, relatively stable democracies.
And also because helping innocent victims is a moral thing to do. This conflict couldn't be more black and white. Russia is following the footsteps of Nazi Germany, no exaggeration here. China is claiming to be a force for good and the best it can do is dwarfed by fucking Estonia (no offense). It's weak.
On June 23 2022 10:06 SSIII wrote: don't underestimate Russia, she will never be a Chinese vessel state. China stands neutral in this war, do not get us into this mess.
The least China could do is provide humanitarian aid. Frankly, what China is doing is pathetic. Your country is aspiring to be a world superpower yet somehow managed to donate a fraction of what Estonia has, a country with just over 1M people.
Why should "authoritarian country turning totalitarian", as you called it in China thread, which is at odds with US, send any kind of support to the US allied country? Plus China is the main benefactor of this war, the longer it drags, the better for them. Russia start to divert trade to China, EU economy is under heavy pressure due to the decreased imports and increased prices on fossil fuels and US has to divert most of its attention and send a bunch of military assets there. Plus China now can calculate, based on reaction to Russia starting the war, what West might do and might not, if Taiwan crisis would escalate.
Meanwhile, the village of Volcheyarovka,12km southwest of Lysychansk seem to be at least partially taken by Russian forces. If it's captured, the last route to Lysychansk will be under direct fire.
China had a deal signed with Ukraine and Poland for an Odessa-Gdanks rail line that would deliver goods from the port into the baltic sea(and the Schengen) within 4 days. They also were starting a booming trade for Ukrainian steel out of Marupol.
We've covered already why china would never actually invade Taiwan and why its just a propaganda tool for keeping civil unrest down.
After Ukraine government screwed up Chinese investors on something around 8 billion dollars with Motor Sich deal, which was also involving sensitive military tech, that US apparently didn't want to give to China, the latter probably stands colder towards Ukraine and deals struck with it. And since EU banned steel and iron import from Russia, I guess it will be turned to China anyway.
The Odessa-Gdhasnk railway was the final hitch to the belt and road initiative that china needed to crack into the EU. Its the final piece of the foreign policy it has dedicated its nation to. I think you might have heard of something that happened in Mariupol that made the steel industry there take a sudden downturn for some odd reason.
On June 23 2022 10:06 SSIII wrote: don't underestimate Russia, she will never be a Chinese vessel state. China stands neutral in this war, do not get us into this mess.
The least China could do is provide humanitarian aid. Frankly, what China is doing is pathetic. Your country is aspiring to be a world superpower yet somehow managed to donate a fraction of what Estonia has, a country with just over 1M people.
Why should "authoritarian country turning totalitarian", as you called it in China thread, which is at odds with US, send any kind of support to the US allied country? Plus China is the main benefactor of this war, the longer it drags, the better for them. Russia start to divert trade to China, EU economy is under heavy pressure due to the decreased imports and increased prices on fossil fuels and US has to divert most of its attention and send a bunch of military assets there. Plus China now can calculate, based on reaction to Russia starting the war, what West might do and might not, if Taiwan crisis would escalate.
Meanwhile, the village of Volcheyarovka,12km southwest of Lysychansk seem to be at least partially taken by Russian forces. If it's captured, the last route to Lysychansk will be under direct fire.
Because you can't aspire to be a world superpower without buying a lot of good will. The US became the sole world superpower because it was a desirable outcome for many, many countries. The US did a lot to help many countries to become prosperous, relatively stable democracies.
And also because helping innocent victims is a moral thing to do. This conflict couldn't be more black and white. Russia is following the footsteps of Nazi Germany, no exaggeration here. China is claiming to be a force for good and the best it can do is dwarfed by fucking Estonia (no offense). It's weak.
States and politicians do not operate from point of moral, they operate from point of effectiveness (as they see it). With Chinese public image in Western world being screwed as it is (which is apparent by the very next thread on this forum), I doubt CCP cares about it n EU and US a lot by this kind of gestures.
As for "buying th good will" - China do provide a ton of investments, helping to create jobs and prosperity for many countries. Of course, reaping benefits in the profits, since they are, as you have previously mentioned, de facto capitalst country. US also wasn't doing their stuff out of charity. And in Ukraine Chinese were slapped in the face (Motor Sich deal I've mentioned above), no less than by Zelensky himself (he blocked the deal signed by previous president Poroshenko and later turned the plant into Ukraine's government property). Chinese probably have remembered that in regards to this conflict.
As for Estonia - I've posted chart of military supplies to Ukraine a page or two back. Estonia seem to dwarf 3rd and 4th European militaries in this regard as well. An outstanding country, what can I say.
You're talking about Estonia's per capita contributions. I'm comparing their contributions with those of China in nominal terms. Estonia drawfs China in its aid to Ukraine in nominal terms.
And I disagree. If states were really amoral actors, the EU would've partitioned Ukraine with Russia and continued business as usual.
On June 23 2022 10:06 SSIII wrote: don't underestimate Russia, she will never be a Chinese vessel state. China stands neutral in this war, do not get us into this mess.
The least China could do is provide humanitarian aid. Frankly, what China is doing is pathetic. Your country is aspiring to be a world superpower yet somehow managed to donate a fraction of what Estonia has, a country with just over 1M people.
Why should "authoritarian country turning totalitarian", as you called it in China thread, which is at odds with US, send any kind of support to the US allied country? Plus China is the main benefactor of this war, the longer it drags, the better for them. Russia start to divert trade to China, EU economy is under heavy pressure due to the decreased imports and increased prices on fossil fuels and US has to divert most of its attention and send a bunch of military assets there. Plus China now can calculate, based on reaction to Russia starting the war, what West might do and might not, if Taiwan crisis would escalate.
Meanwhile, the village of Volcheyarovka,12km southwest of Lysychansk seem to be at least partially taken by Russian forces. If it's captured, the last route to Lysychansk will be under direct fire.
China had a deal signed with Ukraine and Poland for an Odessa-Gdanks rail line that would deliver goods from the port into the baltic sea(and the Schengen) within 4 days. They also were starting a booming trade for Ukrainian steel out of Marupol.
We've covered already why china would never actually invade Taiwan and why its just a propaganda tool for keeping civil unrest down.
After Ukraine government screwed up Chinese investors on something around 8 billion dollars with Motor Sich deal, which was also involving sensitive military tech, that US apparently didn't want to give to China, the latter probably stands colder towards Ukraine and deals struck with it. And since EU banned steel and iron import from Russia, I guess it will be turned to China anyway.
The Odessa-Gdhasnk railway was the final hitch to the belt and road initiative that china needed to crack into the EU. Its the final piece of the foreign policy it has dedicated its nation to. I think you might have heard of something that happened in Mariupol that made the steel industry there take a sudden downturn for some odd reason.
As for Mariupol - of course. Also, due to incident causing said situation EU banned all Russian steel and iron imports, so I guess there will be a production excess of those materials. I wonder, where this excess would be shipped to now?
On June 24 2022 04:47 maybenexttime wrote: You're talking about Estonia's per capita contributions. I'm comparing their contributions with those of China in nominal terms. Estonia drawfs China in its aid to Ukraine in nominal terms.
And I disagree. If states were really amoral actors, the EU would've partitioned Ukraine with Russia and continued business as usual.
Where in my last post I said anything about comaring Estonia with China? https://www.ifw-kiel.de/publications/media-information/2022/ukraine-support-tracker-international-support-is-coming-in-with-long-delays/ And I was talking about this chart, which doesn't say "per capita" anywhere (I guess you know which countries are Europe's 3rd and 4th militaries?). It can also tell you a lot about morality of different states. Though I've wrote this long post: https://tl.net/forum/general/587060-russo-ukrainian-war-thread?page=141#2811 which was basically answering the subject of what interest foreign participants have in this conflict, and how eager they are to stop evil Nazi Putin. Don't want to repeat the same arguments. I can only add that in democracies those in power are more sensitive to the public opinion, and public opinion being riled up by the media as it is, they had to act accordingly (I wish the same reaction was about Karabakh or Yemen conflict, though I doubt a lot of people in EU/US know they happened or are happening at all).
Speaking of Estonia, their prime minister complained recently that existing NATO plans for the Baltic countries is to allow them to be overrun before liberating them after 180 days, which is more than enough to ruin those countries. They're asking NATO to change its plans and station more troops there permanently instead of just rotating small units around them like it's done currently.
It's not a bad idea. Russia would of course call that an unprovoked act of hostility, but nobody would take that seriously after the invasion.
I assume those plans are still operating on the notion that Russia actually has a formidable military. I think recent events have rendered those plans outdated anyway.
EPT
JuNe 22 2022 17:20 
Magic Powers wrote:
Has made small progress in the Severodonetsk region in the last few 
