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On June 24 2022 04:47 Ardias wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2022 04:24 Sermokala wrote:On June 24 2022 03:51 Ardias wrote:On June 24 2022 03:36 Sermokala wrote:On June 24 2022 03:10 Ardias wrote:On June 24 2022 02:09 maybenexttime wrote:On June 23 2022 10:06 SSIII wrote: don't underestimate Russia, she will never be a Chinese vessel state. China stands neutral in this war, do not get us into this mess.
The least China could do is provide humanitarian aid. Frankly, what China is doing is pathetic. Your country is aspiring to be a world superpower yet somehow managed to donate a fraction of what Estonia has, a country with just over 1M people. Why should "authoritarian country turning totalitarian", as you called it in China thread, which is at odds with US, send any kind of support to the US allied country? Plus China is the main benefactor of this war, the longer it drags, the better for them. Russia start to divert trade to China, EU economy is under heavy pressure due to the decreased imports and increased prices on fossil fuels and US has to divert most of its attention and send a bunch of military assets there. Plus China now can calculate, based on reaction to Russia starting the war, what West might do and might not, if Taiwan crisis would escalate. Meanwhile, the village of Volcheyarovka,12km southwest of Lysychansk seem to be at least partially taken by Russian forces. If it's captured, the last route to Lysychansk will be under direct fire. China had a deal signed with Ukraine and Poland for an Odessa-Gdanks rail line that would deliver goods from the port into the baltic sea(and the Schengen) within 4 days. They also were starting a booming trade for Ukrainian steel out of Marupol. We've covered already why china would never actually invade Taiwan and why its just a propaganda tool for keeping civil unrest down. After Ukraine government screwed up Chinese investors on something around 8 billion dollars with Motor Sich deal, which was also involving sensitive military tech, that US apparently didn't want to give to China, the latter probably stands colder towards Ukraine and deals struck with it. And since EU banned steel and iron import from Russia, I guess it will be turned to China anyway. The Odessa-Gdhasnk railway was the final hitch to the belt and road initiative that china needed to crack into the EU. Its the final piece of the foreign policy it has dedicated its nation to. I think you might have heard of something that happened in Mariupol that made the steel industry there take a sudden downturn for some odd reason. https://www.beltroad-initiative.com/belt-and-road/There seem to be a lot of ways other than that one. I've also tried to search for the specifics on Chinese investements into Odessa-Gdansk route, maybe you can provide some? Plus, looking at different maps, I don't seem to find it in the routes of Belt and Silk presented. https://www.oecd.org/finance/Chinas-Belt-and-Road-Initiative-in-the-global-trade-investment-and-finance-landscape.pdfhttps://www.beltroad-initiative.com/belt-and-road/https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/chinas-massive-belt-and-road-initiativeAs for Mariupol - of course. Also, due to incident related to this situation EU banned all Russian steel and iron imports, so I guess there will be a production excess of those materials. I wonder, where this excess would be shipped to now? There uh... won't be a lot of excess steel production from that city. The infrastructure of shipping it to the sea has also uh.., had a bad time recently. I don't know who would have caused that bit of business tho.
odessa-journal.com From China to Odessa.
www.maritime-executive.com
From China to Gdansk.
Both these routes went overland through Russia so they're just about invalid now.
However, if you look at their planned routes they were making a much shorter overland route into Istanbul after going south at Korgos (pic spoiled for space) + Show Spoiler +
From there they would have been able to hop from Istanbul to Odessa making the northern route unnessisary.
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Amazing the derailment power of China + something about a vassal state. Nobody was even talking about China beforehand.
We know what China's position is, and it's position is that it really doesn't care much about the war at all. It is actually self sufficient in the food staples and is in no danger of starvation, and is happily rubbing its hands over Russian engine tech transfer and the eventual Russian supplies of cheap oil in several years time. In that regard its position is much like India. Europe is far away and neither will ever worry about being targets of aggression from Russia. This is Chinese realpolitik in action.
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On June 24 2022 05:01 Ardias wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2022 04:47 maybenexttime wrote: You're talking about Estonia's per capita contributions. I'm comparing their contributions with those of China in nominal terms. Estonia drawfs China in its aid to Ukraine in nominal terms.
And I disagree. If states were really amoral actors, the EU would've partitioned Ukraine with Russia and continued business as usual. Where in my last post I said anything about comaring Estonia with China? https://www.ifw-kiel.de/publications/media-information/2022/ukraine-support-tracker-international-support-is-coming-in-with-long-delays/And I was talking about this chart, which doesn't say "per capita" anywhere (I guess you know which countries are Europe's 3rd and 4th militaries?). It can also tell you a lot about morality of different states. Though I've wrote this long post: https://tl.net/forum/general/587060-russo-ukrainian-war-thread?page=141#2811which was basically answering the subject of what interest foreign participants have in this conflict, and how eager they are to stop evil Nazi Putin. Don't want to repeat the same arguments. I can only add that in democracies those in power are more sensitive to the public opinion, and public opinion being riled up by the media as it is, they had to act accordingly (I wish the same reaction was about Karabakh or Yemen conflict, though I doubt a lot of people in EU/US know they happened or are happening at all). I don't see Estonia dwarfing anyone in those charts in nominal terms.
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Russian Federation605 Posts
On June 24 2022 05:07 Gorsameth wrote: I assume those plans are still operating on the notion that Russia actually has a formidable military. I think recent events have rendered those plans outdated anyway. https://www.ft.com/content/a430b191-39c8-4b03-b3fd-8e7e948a5284 If Russian military is so redundant, I wonder why she is asking for no less than full US Army Corps to be deployed to the Baltic states?
On June 24 2022 05:16 maybenexttime wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2022 05:01 Ardias wrote:On June 24 2022 04:47 maybenexttime wrote: You're talking about Estonia's per capita contributions. I'm comparing their contributions with those of China in nominal terms. Estonia drawfs China in its aid to Ukraine in nominal terms.
And I disagree. If states were really amoral actors, the EU would've partitioned Ukraine with Russia and continued business as usual. Where in my last post I said anything about comaring Estonia with China? https://www.ifw-kiel.de/publications/media-information/2022/ukraine-support-tracker-international-support-is-coming-in-with-long-delays/And I was talking about this chart, which doesn't say "per capita" anywhere (I guess you know which countries are Europe's 3rd and 4th militaries?). It can also tell you a lot about morality of different states. Though I've wrote this long post: https://tl.net/forum/general/587060-russo-ukrainian-war-thread?page=141#2811which was basically answering the subject of what interest foreign participants have in this conflict, and how eager they are to stop evil Nazi Putin. Don't want to repeat the same arguments. I can only add that in democracies those in power are more sensitive to the public opinion, and public opinion being riled up by the media as it is, they had to act accordingly (I wish the same reaction was about Karabakh or Yemen conflict, though I doubt a lot of people in EU/US know they happened or are happening at all). I don't see Estonia dwarfing anyone in those charts in nominal terms. Well, if the fact that EU country with 700 million USD defence budget supplies more weapons than EU country with 55 billion USD (it's France, btw) is normal, then it's okay, nothing to see here.
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On June 24 2022 05:18 Ardias wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2022 05:07 Gorsameth wrote: I assume those plans are still operating on the notion that Russia actually has a formidable military. I think recent events have rendered those plans outdated anyway. https://www.ft.com/content/a430b191-39c8-4b03-b3fd-8e7e948a5284If Russian military is so redundant, I wonder why she is asking for no less than full US Army Corps to be deployed to the Baltic states? Because politicians like to talk big.
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On June 24 2022 05:18 Ardias wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2022 05:07 Gorsameth wrote: I assume those plans are still operating on the notion that Russia actually has a formidable military. I think recent events have rendered those plans outdated anyway. https://www.ft.com/content/a430b191-39c8-4b03-b3fd-8e7e948a5284If Russian military is so redundant, I wonder why she is asking for no less than full US Army Corps to be deployed to the Baltic states?
Because when the plans were made, it was expected that even with a serious commitment the RU army could just steamroll through. No-one serious says the RU army is completely redundant. Just that it was overvalued, and based on what we see in Ukraine, a serious defence commitment could put up useful resistance in its face in the baltics
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On June 24 2022 05:07 Gorsameth wrote: I assume those plans are still operating on the notion that Russia actually has a formidable military. I think recent events have rendered those plans outdated anyway.
Outdated mostly in that they assume RU to be a rational actor. This foolish and reckless attack tells us that we need to prepare for major miscalculations as well. And while today Estonia is very safe from attack, defense plans are made decades in advance. We're really laying the groundwork for the wars our children and grandchildren will possibly fight. (Just look at the research and production times of the equipment used in this war.)
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On June 24 2022 05:18 Ardias wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2022 05:07 Gorsameth wrote: I assume those plans are still operating on the notion that Russia actually has a formidable military. I think recent events have rendered those plans outdated anyway. https://www.ft.com/content/a430b191-39c8-4b03-b3fd-8e7e948a5284If Russian military is so redundant, I wonder why she is asking for no less than full US Army Corps to be deployed to the Baltic states? Show nested quote +On June 24 2022 05:16 maybenexttime wrote:On June 24 2022 05:01 Ardias wrote:On June 24 2022 04:47 maybenexttime wrote: You're talking about Estonia's per capita contributions. I'm comparing their contributions with those of China in nominal terms. Estonia drawfs China in its aid to Ukraine in nominal terms.
And I disagree. If states were really amoral actors, the EU would've partitioned Ukraine with Russia and continued business as usual. Where in my last post I said anything about comaring Estonia with China? https://www.ifw-kiel.de/publications/media-information/2022/ukraine-support-tracker-international-support-is-coming-in-with-long-delays/And I was talking about this chart, which doesn't say "per capita" anywhere (I guess you know which countries are Europe's 3rd and 4th militaries?). It can also tell you a lot about morality of different states. Though I've wrote this long post: https://tl.net/forum/general/587060-russo-ukrainian-war-thread?page=141#2811which was basically answering the subject of what interest foreign participants have in this conflict, and how eager they are to stop evil Nazi Putin. Don't want to repeat the same arguments. I can only add that in democracies those in power are more sensitive to the public opinion, and public opinion being riled up by the media as it is, they had to act accordingly (I wish the same reaction was about Karabakh or Yemen conflict, though I doubt a lot of people in EU/US know they happened or are happening at all). I don't see Estonia dwarfing anyone in those charts in nominal terms. Well, if the fact that EU country with 700 million USD defence budget supplies more weapons than EU country with 55 billion USD (it's France, btw) is normal, then it's okay, nothing to see here. What you're saying is completely irrelevant to what I said. I was comparing contributions in nominal terms whereas you are comparing contributions in per capita terms. You're saying that their military aid is impressive when scaled for their budget/economy. While true, it misses my point. What I'm saying is that Estonia's aid dwarfs China's aid without scaling for their economies. China's economy is almost 500 times bigger yet Estonia's aid is about 100 times bigger (depends on the source).
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Russian Federation605 Posts
Seems my English isn't sufficient enough to make hints or something. I'll try to be more direct then.
On June 24 2022 05:10 Sermokala wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2022 04:47 Ardias wrote:On June 24 2022 04:24 Sermokala wrote:On June 24 2022 03:51 Ardias wrote:On June 24 2022 03:36 Sermokala wrote:On June 24 2022 03:10 Ardias wrote:On June 24 2022 02:09 maybenexttime wrote:On June 23 2022 10:06 SSIII wrote: don't underestimate Russia, she will never be a Chinese vessel state. China stands neutral in this war, do not get us into this mess.
The least China could do is provide humanitarian aid. Frankly, what China is doing is pathetic. Your country is aspiring to be a world superpower yet somehow managed to donate a fraction of what Estonia has, a country with just over 1M people. Why should "authoritarian country turning totalitarian", as you called it in China thread, which is at odds with US, send any kind of support to the US allied country? Plus China is the main benefactor of this war, the longer it drags, the better for them. Russia start to divert trade to China, EU economy is under heavy pressure due to the decreased imports and increased prices on fossil fuels and US has to divert most of its attention and send a bunch of military assets there. Plus China now can calculate, based on reaction to Russia starting the war, what West might do and might not, if Taiwan crisis would escalate. Meanwhile, the village of Volcheyarovka,12km southwest of Lysychansk seem to be at least partially taken by Russian forces. If it's captured, the last route to Lysychansk will be under direct fire. China had a deal signed with Ukraine and Poland for an Odessa-Gdanks rail line that would deliver goods from the port into the baltic sea(and the Schengen) within 4 days. They also were starting a booming trade for Ukrainian steel out of Marupol. We've covered already why china would never actually invade Taiwan and why its just a propaganda tool for keeping civil unrest down. After Ukraine government screwed up Chinese investors on something around 8 billion dollars with Motor Sich deal, which was also involving sensitive military tech, that US apparently didn't want to give to China, the latter probably stands colder towards Ukraine and deals struck with it. And since EU banned steel and iron import from Russia, I guess it will be turned to China anyway. The Odessa-Gdhasnk railway was the final hitch to the belt and road initiative that china needed to crack into the EU. Its the final piece of the foreign policy it has dedicated its nation to. I think you might have heard of something that happened in Mariupol that made the steel industry there take a sudden downturn for some odd reason. https://www.beltroad-initiative.com/belt-and-road/There seem to be a lot of ways other than that one. I've also tried to search for the specifics on Chinese investements into Odessa-Gdansk route, maybe you can provide some? Plus, looking at different maps, I don't seem to find it in the routes of Belt and Silk presented. https://www.oecd.org/finance/Chinas-Belt-and-Road-Initiative-in-the-global-trade-investment-and-finance-landscape.pdfhttps://www.beltroad-initiative.com/belt-and-road/https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/chinas-massive-belt-and-road-initiativeAs for Mariupol - of course. Also, due to incident related to this situation EU banned all Russian steel and iron imports, so I guess there will be a production excess of those materials. I wonder, where this excess would be shipped to now? There uh... won't be a lot of excess steel production from that city. The infrastructure of shipping it to the sea has also uh.., had a bad time recently. I don't know who would have caused that bit of business tho. odessa-journal.comFrom China to Odessa. www.maritime-executive.comFrom China to Gdansk. Both these routes went overland through Russia so they're just about invalid now. However, if you look at their planned routes they were making a much shorter overland route into Istanbul after going south at Korgos (pic spoiled for space) + Show Spoiler +From there they would have been able to hop from Istanbul to Odessa making the northern route unnessisary. Russia will replace Mariupol's steel and iron for China with the excess of Russian metal production that was formed because EU banned steel and iron import from Russia.
Also port is working. First Turkish container ship departed from it two days ago.
On June 24 2022 05:55 maybenexttime wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2022 05:18 Ardias wrote:On June 24 2022 05:07 Gorsameth wrote: I assume those plans are still operating on the notion that Russia actually has a formidable military. I think recent events have rendered those plans outdated anyway. https://www.ft.com/content/a430b191-39c8-4b03-b3fd-8e7e948a5284If Russian military is so redundant, I wonder why she is asking for no less than full US Army Corps to be deployed to the Baltic states? On June 24 2022 05:16 maybenexttime wrote:On June 24 2022 05:01 Ardias wrote:On June 24 2022 04:47 maybenexttime wrote: You're talking about Estonia's per capita contributions. I'm comparing their contributions with those of China in nominal terms. Estonia drawfs China in its aid to Ukraine in nominal terms.
And I disagree. If states were really amoral actors, the EU would've partitioned Ukraine with Russia and continued business as usual. Where in my last post I said anything about comaring Estonia with China? https://www.ifw-kiel.de/publications/media-information/2022/ukraine-support-tracker-international-support-is-coming-in-with-long-delays/And I was talking about this chart, which doesn't say "per capita" anywhere (I guess you know which countries are Europe's 3rd and 4th militaries?). It can also tell you a lot about morality of different states. Though I've wrote this long post: https://tl.net/forum/general/587060-russo-ukrainian-war-thread?page=141#2811which was basically answering the subject of what interest foreign participants have in this conflict, and how eager they are to stop evil Nazi Putin. Don't want to repeat the same arguments. I can only add that in democracies those in power are more sensitive to the public opinion, and public opinion being riled up by the media as it is, they had to act accordingly (I wish the same reaction was about Karabakh or Yemen conflict, though I doubt a lot of people in EU/US know they happened or are happening at all). I don't see Estonia dwarfing anyone in those charts in nominal terms. Well, if the fact that EU country with 700 million USD defence budget supplies more weapons than EU country with 55 billion USD (it's France, btw) is normal, then it's okay, nothing to see here. What you're saying is completely irrelevant to what I said. I was comparing contributions in nominal terms whereas you are comparing contributions in per capita terms. You're saying that their military aid is impressive when scaled for their budget/economy. While true, it misses my point. What I'm saying is that Estonia's aid dwarfs China's aid without scaling for their economies. China's economy is almost 500 times bigger yet Estonia's aid is about 100 times bigger (depends on the source). I don't understand why you keep talking about China, when for the last two posts I was comparing Estonia contribution with France and Italy (whom Estonia outperform heavily). With a hint that you should probably point fingers at these highly moral democratic Western countries, which should be ecstaticaly united in combating the evil orkish horde, rather than at totalitarian regime which doesn't want (surprise) to supply the friend of their enemy.
I hope now you get my point.
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I was talking about China because SSIII brought up their country. Not sure why you decided to chime in and now act like I'm changing the topic.
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Russian Federation605 Posts
On June 24 2022 06:42 maybenexttime wrote: I was talking about China because SSIII brought up their country. Not sure why you decided to chime in and now act like I'm changing the topic. https://tl.net/forum/general/587060-russo-ukrainian-war-thread?page=145#2895 My only mentions of Estonia in this post were about a comparison with France and Italy.
As for Estonia - I've posted chart of military supplies to Ukraine a page or two back. Estonia seem to dwarf 3rd and 4th European militaries in this regard as well. In reply to which you've proceeded with the following answer.
You're talking about Estonia's per capita contributions. I'm comparing their contributions with those of China in nominal terms. Estonia drawfs China in its aid to Ukraine in nominal terms. So I wondered, why you continued talking about China vs Estonia in reply to me, while my post was about something else already.
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On June 24 2022 03:51 Ardias wrote:
After Ukraine government screwed up Chinese investors on something around 8 billion dollars with Motor Sich deal, which was also involving sensitive military tech, that US apparently didn't want to give to China, the latter probably stands colder towards Ukraine and deals struck with it. And since EU banned steel and iron import from Russia, I guess it will be turned to China anyway.
Not only this,comrade, Zelensky said on his twitter that "China can be global security system's important element if it makes a right decision to support the civilized countries' coalition&condemn russian barbarism.It is a chance to sit at the table as equals.The West must explain to Beijing how $1.6 trillion differs from $150 billion.
seriously, what do you expect the Chinese to do after writing down this?
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On June 24 2022 06:42 maybenexttime wrote: I was talking about China because SSIII brought up their country. Not sure why you decided to chime in and now act like I'm changing the topic. It's the one ahead of me,actually.
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On June 24 2022 17:15 SSIII wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2022 03:51 Ardias wrote:
After Ukraine government screwed up Chinese investors on something around 8 billion dollars with Motor Sich deal, which was also involving sensitive military tech, that US apparently didn't want to give to China, the latter probably stands colder towards Ukraine and deals struck with it. And since EU banned steel and iron import from Russia, I guess it will be turned to China anyway.
Not only this,comrade, Zelensky said on his twitter that "China can be global security system's important element if it makes a right decision to support the civilized countries' coalition&condemn russian barbarism. It is a chance to sit at the table as equals.The West must explain to Beijing how $1.6 trillion differs from $150 billion. seriously, what do you expect the Chinese to do after writing down this? Are you comparing the Russian economy in rubles vs the Ukrainian economy that will be in the eu after this war that china can have a hand in if they support ukraine?
If any nation is going to be willing to do a massive belt and road project with China it will be a post war ukraine that has re taken crimea with China's help.
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On June 25 2022 00:25 Sermokala wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2022 17:15 SSIII wrote:On June 24 2022 03:51 Ardias wrote:
After Ukraine government screwed up Chinese investors on something around 8 billion dollars with Motor Sich deal, which was also involving sensitive military tech, that US apparently didn't want to give to China, the latter probably stands colder towards Ukraine and deals struck with it. And since EU banned steel and iron import from Russia, I guess it will be turned to China anyway.
Not only this,comrade, Zelensky said on his twitter that "China can be global security system's important element if it makes a right decision to support the civilized countries' coalition&condemn russian barbarism. It is a chance to sit at the table as equals.The West must explain to Beijing how $1.6 trillion differs from $150 billion. seriously, what do you expect the Chinese to do after writing down this? Are you comparing the Russian economy in rubles vs the Ukrainian economy that will be in the eu after this war that china can have a hand in if they support ukraine? If any nation is going to be willing to do a massive belt and road project with China it will be a post war ukraine that has re taken crimea with China's help.
I guess you perfectly misunderstood what I mean.
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On June 25 2022 01:06 SSIII wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2022 00:25 Sermokala wrote:On June 24 2022 17:15 SSIII wrote:On June 24 2022 03:51 Ardias wrote:
After Ukraine government screwed up Chinese investors on something around 8 billion dollars with Motor Sich deal, which was also involving sensitive military tech, that US apparently didn't want to give to China, the latter probably stands colder towards Ukraine and deals struck with it. And since EU banned steel and iron import from Russia, I guess it will be turned to China anyway.
Not only this,comrade, Zelensky said on his twitter that "China can be global security system's important element if it makes a right decision to support the civilized countries' coalition&condemn russian barbarism. It is a chance to sit at the table as equals.The West must explain to Beijing how $1.6 trillion differs from $150 billion. seriously, what do you expect the Chinese to do after writing down this? Are you comparing the Russian economy in rubles vs the Ukrainian economy that will be in the eu after this war that china can have a hand in if they support ukraine? If any nation is going to be willing to do a massive belt and road project with China it will be a post war ukraine that has re taken crimea with China's help. I guess you perfectly misunderstood what I mean. It's a good thing I asked a question about what you meant then isn't it?
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Russian Federation605 Posts
On June 25 2022 00:25 Sermokala wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2022 17:15 SSIII wrote:On June 24 2022 03:51 Ardias wrote:
After Ukraine government screwed up Chinese investors on something around 8 billion dollars with Motor Sich deal, which was also involving sensitive military tech, that US apparently didn't want to give to China, the latter probably stands colder towards Ukraine and deals struck with it. And since EU banned steel and iron import from Russia, I guess it will be turned to China anyway.
Not only this,comrade, Zelensky said on his twitter that "China can be global security system's important element if it makes a right decision to support the civilized countries' coalition&condemn russian barbarism. It is a chance to sit at the table as equals.The West must explain to Beijing how $1.6 trillion differs from $150 billion. seriously, what do you expect the Chinese to do after writing down this? Are you comparing the Russian economy in rubles vs the Ukrainian economy that will be in the eu after this war that china can have a hand in if they support ukraine? If any nation is going to be willing to do a massive belt and road project with China it will be a post war ukraine that has re taken crimea with China's help. He referenced this Mikhaylo Podolyak's (the close advisor to Zelensky) statment. https://frontnews.eu/en/news/details/23514 Figures mean Chinese trade volume with the West and with Russia respectively. And he meant that China is offended by derogatory attitude of this Ukraine official, since according to his speech, he doesn't consider China as "equal", unless it's in the Western camp against Russia.
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That's a weird interpretation of what he said but I can understand it I guess.
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On June 24 2022 17:15 SSIII wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2022 03:51 Ardias wrote:
After Ukraine government screwed up Chinese investors on something around 8 billion dollars with Motor Sich deal, which was also involving sensitive military tech, that US apparently didn't want to give to China, the latter probably stands colder towards Ukraine and deals struck with it. And since EU banned steel and iron import from Russia, I guess it will be turned to China anyway.
Not only this,comrade, Zelensky said on his twitter that "China can be global security system's important element if it makes a right decision to support the civilized countries' coalition&condemn russian barbarism. It is a chance to sit at the table as equals.The West must explain to Beijing how $1.6 trillion differs from $150 billion. seriously, what do you expect the Chinese to do after writing down this?
And what is exaxtly wrong with this statement? China is oversensitive or feels offended for some reason? You guys are no saints with the current policy towards African nations and "China 2049" global strategy. You can do better as a nation if you really wanna to become a superpower, but I doubt you will with this government (hopefully am wrong) and it's approach
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