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NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets. Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source. | ||
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Sermokala
United States13956 Posts
Ukraine says they completed the planting season. Any deaths from famines are on Russia now. Russia cant alleviate the coming famine on their own. Any supplies that go to Egypt won't go to their assumed customer and the chain will go on to starve some other nation down the line. | ||
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xM(Z
Romania5281 Posts
On June 18 2022 06:27 Gorsameth wrote: there is no western aid given to Ukraine that would make them win the war.I disagree that it is inevitable that Ukraine loses Donbas. Russia is making no progress and can't keep this up forever. Ukraine with western aid can outlast Russia in material, tho manpower might be the bigger issue. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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xM(Z
Romania5281 Posts
On June 18 2022 12:49 JimmiC wrote: to me that conclusion was a given, from what i read since the invasion started i didn't see any other way it'll end.Bold statement, do you have absolutely any proof or at least can you explain your reasoning preferably with a few facts to back it up? i don't have links prepared/at hand, but a random google search https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2022/06/what-west-has-given-not-enough-win-ukraine-says/367740/ , https://www.newsweek.com/zelensky-advisor-reveals-weapons-ukraine-needs-win-war-russia-1715133 “We need to liberate our land as soon as possible. To do that, we need heavy weapons, primarily MLRS [Multiple Launch Rocket Systems]. We also need artillery tanks, aviation, anti-ship complexes, new UAVs, anti-aircraft and anti-missile defense systems. We need them fast. We need them in the numbers matching the scope of the challenge we face,” said Reznikov, appearing via video link from Ukraine at the GLOBSEC Bratislava Forum. from the later Ukrainian presidential adviser and peace talks negotiator on Monday revealed the weapons Ukraine needs to end the war against Russia, as fighting intensifies in Ukraine's east. "Being straightforward—to end the war we need heavy weapons parity," Mykhailo Podolyak said on Twitter Monday morning. To bring an end to the conflict, Ukraine needs 1,000 howitzers caliber 155 mm, 300 MLRS (M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System), 500 tanks, 2,000 armored vehicles, and 1,000 drones, Podolyak added. Podolyak also added that the "Contact Group of Defense Ministers meeting is held in #Brussels on June 15. We are waiting for a decision. and you sent them what?, maybe 30ish howitzers and several drones? ... | ||
KwarK
United States42778 Posts
On June 18 2022 13:02 xM(Z wrote: to me that conclusion was a given, from what i read since the invasion started i didn't see any other way it'll end. i don't have links prepared/at hand, but a random google search https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2022/06/what-west-has-given-not-enough-win-ukraine-says/367740/ , https://www.newsweek.com/zelensky-advisor-reveals-weapons-ukraine-needs-win-war-russia-1715133 from the later and you sent them what?, maybe 30ish howitzers and several drones? ... You’re conflating what they’re saying they need to bring about a rapid conclusion to the conflict with what they need to win it. They’re saying they could end it if they had the things on their wishlist, not that they can’t possibly end it if they didn’t. The wishlist would give them more military hardware than any nation but the United States. They’re already holding their own with what they’ve received and there is a significant delay between the agreement to send aid and it being in service. Moving 500 tanks, plus their entire supply chain, to the front line would take months. Training and placing them into service would take longer still. The military aid is happening, but it doesn’t happen overnight. Ukraine is currently wiping out the Russian army (albeit in a war of attrition) with the weapons pledged months ago. Next month they’ll be turning the tide with the weapons pledged last month. The month after they’ll be crushing with the weapons pledged this month. Harpoons were pledged a while ago and yesterday morning we saw their first use sinking a Russian ship. These things take time. | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands21705 Posts
On June 18 2022 08:02 Manit0u wrote: I can certainly see Crimea being a bridge to far to get back in a military campaign. But for now I have faith that reclaiming Donbas is within the realm of possibility. Ukraine is holding the line and slowly pushing the flanks.Ukraine has big reserves of manpower to draw upon. The problem here is time required to train them. I would assume that some of their potential replenishments are being trained at bases in Poland and other NATO countries, but it takes time. They have 900k reserve personnel and 7-11 million people fit/available for military service. Russia can't match that unless it officially scales up from "special operation" to "war". So, if anything equipment is the bigger problem for Ukraine. Donbas and Crimea are a complicated matter. Zelensky stated before that Ukraine won't accept anything that's not getting their borders back from before the 2014 invasion (which includes Donbas and Crimea) but even if Russian offensive crumbles taking all of those back might be a lengthy affair and I'm not sure Ukraine has enough men in active duty to undergo it. Remains to be seen. Czechs don't give a fuck and want to get back at Russia for their agents blowing up their weapon stores some years back. | ||
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emperorchampion
Canada9496 Posts
On June 18 2022 14:50 Gorsameth wrote: I can certainly see Crimea being a bridge to far to get back in a military campaign. But for now I have faith that reclaiming Donbas is within the realm of possibility. Ukraine is holding the line and slowly pushing the flanks. I suppose if you reclaim the water supply it's a matter of time until crimea falls as well. | ||
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xM(Z
Romania5281 Posts
On June 18 2022 13:14 KwarK wrote: You’re conflating what they’re saying they need to bring about a rapid conclusion to the conflict with what they need to win it. They’re saying they could end it if they had the things on their wishlist, not that they can’t possibly end it if they didn’t. The wishlist would give them more military hardware than any nation but the United States. They’re already holding their own with what they’ve received and there is a significant delay between the agreement to send aid and it being in service. Moving 500 tanks, plus their entire supply chain, to the front line would take months. Training and placing them into service would take longer still. The military aid is happening, but it doesn’t happen overnight. Ukraine is currently wiping out the Russian army (albeit in a war of attrition) with the weapons pledged months ago. Next month they’ll be turning the tide with the weapons pledged last month. The month after they’ll be crushing with the weapons pledged this month. Harpoons were pledged a while ago and yesterday morning we saw their first use sinking a Russian ship. These things take time. i read that and said to myself: "sure, hope should die last but ...", but the reality of it is that the 'aid' for Ukraine is trickling slow enough to make it useless(and it's not what's needed there), and on the ground russians are winning. you, pointing to moral boosting, single/rare/isolated incidents to score winning points, shows me the disconnect between people(western) perception and facts on the ground. in what universe do you see russians admitting defeat, signing capitulation treaties, then leaving?. Edit: maybe to clarify - there isn't a weapon Ukraine received that the russians don't have a better counter-weapon to. you send them bullets and guns, russians pull machine guns; you send machine guns russians pull out mortars; you send mortars, russians are pulling out tanks, and so on and so forth. | ||
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mahrgell
Germany3943 Posts
On June 18 2022 17:57 emperorchampion wrote: I suppose if you reclaim the water supply it's a matter of time until crimea falls as well. How much time? Another 8 years? | ||
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emperorchampion
Canada9496 Posts
Perhaps. I assume there are some water reservoirs in Crimea that may not fill before the supply is cut off again, this could reduce situation back to 2021 relatively quickly. | ||
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Ardias
Russian Federation610 Posts
On June 18 2022 02:20 Mohdoo wrote: A couple questions if people don't mind answering: 1) How is Russia making gains when the entire world is arming Ukraine? Are countries just giving Ukraine tiny bits of military stuff? 2) If countries are being really stingy with what they give Ukraine, are they trying to drag out the war to bleed Russia dry? It feels like the weapons and aid being given to Ukraine is entirely useless if Ukraine just ends up losing. So if countries are choosing to give Ukraine less than they could, what is the value of giving anything at all if Ukraine just keeps losing territory? 3) Is it possible that the west is basically just trying to make Russia think they have a chance of success, only to up their aid later on, and basically leave Russia in shambles? It is hard to understand the logic at play with how much countries are willing to help, but not enough to actually prevent land from being lost. 4) More generally speaking, is Russia doing a really good job right now, or am I missing something? In spite of everything against them, continuing to gain ground seems really impressive. But maybe I am just not understanding the actual extent of aid. Do we have a good understanding of Russian vs Western costs/losses? Is Russia just more efficient? 1) Western support, in fact, is much less than expected. I can understand, why supplies at first days were small - everyone was in shock, and thought Ukraine will fall within a week. I can undersrand why supplies at first weeks consisted only of small arms, body armor, anti-tank and anti-air man-portable weapons - they require the least time to train and much easier to maintain, than vehicles. But now, when it is clear than war will drag on for months, if not years, heavy equipment should definetly be on the books, but I don't see huge numbers of it. I mean, 4 HIMARS from US, when they have around 1400 MLRS systems? https://breakingdefense.com/2022/06/us-to-provide-4-himars-systems-to-ukraine-in-latest-700m-arms-package/ I believe this chart was posted here already, but still https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/ve6drb/committed_vs_delivered_weapons_to_ukraine/ Counting stuff that was actually delievered, we see Poland on par with US, Czech on par with Germany, and Latvia/Estonia above(!) France/Italy. 2) I believe that countries sending aid are not united in their purpose. Eastern european countries want to kill as many Ruskies as possible as well as demand supply of modern equipment from other NATO countries in exchange for their active contribution to the conflict. For example: https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/poland-hopes-germany-will-replace-tanks-given-to-ukraine-30573 https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-jets-slovakia-idINL2N2W91BV France and Germany are much less eager to do so, since it will be them who has to spend money on actual production of weaponry, plus as the economy leaders of the EU, they care less about destroying Russia, whatever it takes, and more about keeping their economy alive, so they are more eager to sue for peace and ease of sanctions, even if it means territorial losses for Ukraine. Italy seem not to be ager about this war at all, looking at public polls. https://ecfr.eu/publication/peace-versus-justice-the-coming-european-split-over-the-war-in-ukraine/ Small EU countries just deliver what they can I suppose, since they sold out or scrapped a lot of their stuff after the end of Cold War. What's with UK and US - I'm not too sure, probably guys from there will explain better. But 108 M777, 200 old M113 and 4 HIMARS from US, when they have hundreds Bradleys, M1s, M109s, M270s? Come on. I understand preserving of weapons for yourself is important in case of war, but when one of your two biggest potential enemies is engaged in a full-scale war with third country, it seems strange not to support that country with every means possible. UK is also one of the main advocates of "fighting till the end", but they aren't that fast with supplies. Those AS-90 they talked about for so long only now seems to be shipped to Poland for training of the Ukrainian troops. https://thenortheastaffairs.com/uk-to-supply-ukraine-with-20-as90-howitzers-45000-shells-next-week/ 3) I probably answered that a bit in point 2), but will say again that countries providing aid look at this war differently and have different goals. Eastern Europe is geniuenly interested in crushing Russian Army; Germany, France and Italy seem to be reluctant about even inderect participation in this war, and just want to save face and show participation, UK and US seem eager to bleed Russia dry, but not with spending too much money doing so. 4) Gains are not significant, since Ukrainian army outnumbers Russian 3-to-1 or so (politico article states 330 000 Russian soldiers directly or indirectly participating in Ukraine war) https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2022/06/16/outgunned-outmanned-outnumbered-outplanned-00040024 and leader of Zelenskiys' political party and his advisor David Arakhamia claimed that 1 million people was mobilized in Ukraine army https://www.axios.com/2022/06/15/ukraine-1000-casualties-day-donbas-arakhamia Plus Russia had lost a lot of infantry during the last four months, so now Russian Army changed tactics, and advances slowly, but methodically, preferring to spend shells and time, rather than manpower. Ukrainians, on the other hand, have a lot of men, but severely lacking heavy equipment and ammo (they literally almost ran out of 152-mm shells), and they have little to no domestic production remaining (especially in terms of ammo), so now they rely more and more on Western support (which I talked about above). | ||
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Lwerewolf
Bulgaria78 Posts
On June 18 2022 18:40 Ardias wrote: Eastern Europe is geniuenly interested in crushing Russian Army; ... Just saying, "crushing the army" (well, "crushing the invasion" is the better description) does not mean "we want dead ruskies", "we want Russia to crumble", etc, etc. Polarization is an extremely dangerous state of mind. Not sure how relations and goodwill in the region will ever be improved after this. | ||
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Jockmcplop
United Kingdom9658 Posts
The line that really got me was 'Its hard to write violent quests when there's a war outside your window'  + Show Spoiler + | ||
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Deleted User 137586
7859 Posts
On June 18 2022 18:06 xM(Z wrote: i read that and said to myself: "sure, hope should die last but ...", but the reality of it is that the 'aid' for Ukraine is trickling slow enough to make it useless(and it's not what's needed there), and on the ground russians are winning. you, pointing to moral boosting, single/rare/isolated incidents to score winning points, shows me the disconnect between people(western) perception and facts on the ground. in what universe do you see russians admitting defeat, signing capitulation treaties, then leaving?. Edit: maybe to clarify - there isn't a weapon Ukraine received that the russians don't have a better counter-weapon to. you send them bullets and guns, russians pull machine guns; you send machine guns russians pull out mortars; you send mortars, russians are pulling out tanks, and so on and so forth. This view is not supported by experts. I haven't been translating Rainer Saks posts for a while because nothing was happening, but today's is basically tailored to counter what you're saying: Russia continues to attack in Northern Donbas, but activity is trending downward. UA counter-actions has clearly strengthened. - Near Kharkiv, RU hasn't been able to force UA to retreat, but UA also hasn't tried to advance either. - The Izyum grouping is most active on the RU side, tries to advance south and SE daily. The front lines keep shifting but there aren't any real changes. - Severodonetsk city engagements continue. RU has not achieved anything additional. Also not near the city. They keep trying. - South of Severodonetsk, from Popasna, RU continues routine attempts at attacking, every day. During the last week, RU hasn't achieved anything, and their intensity is clearly falling. One can generalize that UA artillery has become more effective over the last week. They keep hitting more ammunition dumps, including those far from the front lines. It's noteworthy that they destroyed the primary logistics and support center for the Russian side in the region of Lugansk. All this explains the reduction in activity on the RU side. We can infer that UA has utilized more Western heavy equipment. ... [skipping the bit on artillery duels - G] ... A RU support tug was hit near Snake Island yesterday. UA demonstrated to RU its new capabilities coming online. RU confirmed that approaching UA coastline is dangerous. This also means that launching Kalibri missiles from the same distance as before in the conflict now carries a higher risk. RU needs a ceasefire to restore the capabilities of its troops. + Show Spoiler + Original: 18 juuni kokkuvõte - venemaa jätkab rünnakuid Põhja-Donbassis, aga langeva aktiivsusega. Ukrainlaste vastutegevus on selgelt tugevnenud. - Harkivi suunal ei ole vene üksused ukrainlasi tagasi suruda suutnud, aga ka ukraina pool ei ole peale tungida üritanud - Izjumi grupeering on venelaste poolel hetkel kõige aktiivsem, üritab igapäevaselt lõunasse ja kagu suunda edeneda. Nagu varasemate nädalate jooksulgi. Rinne liigub siin piiratud alal päeva jooksul edasi-tagasi, kuid kokkuvõttes suuremaid muudatusi ei ole. - Severdonetski linnalahingud jätkuvad. Vene pool ei ole suutnud rohkem edu saavutada. Nagu ka linna lähiünbruses. Proovivad edasi - Severodonetskist lõunas, Popasna suunalt käib ka rutinne pealetungimise üirtamine, iga päev. Viimase nädala jooksul ei ole venelased edu saavutanud ja nende intensiisvus on selges languses. Võib üldistada, et viimase nädala vältel on Ukraina vägede süürtükitule võimekus selgelt efektiivsemaks muutunud. Tabatakse järjest rohkem vene poole moonavarusid, ka rindest kaugel. Märkimist väärib põhilise logistika ja varustuskeskuse hävitamine Luganski piirkonnas. See kõik seletab ka vene poole aktiivsuse kahanemist. Ukrina on järelikult võtnud järjest suuremal hulgal kasutusele lääne raskerelvastust. - Lõuna pool vene üksused piirdusid vaid suurtükitulega. - Hersoni piirkonnas eile, Ukraina üksused edeneda ei üritanud, vene poole suurtükituli on viimastel päevadel olnud aktiivsem. Üritavad ukrainlasi maha suruda, aga vastupealetunge nad omakorda sooritada ei ole suutnud vähemasti viimase nädala jooksul. Eile lasti Ussisaare juures põhja ka vene laevastiku varustuslaev. Ukraina demonstreeris sellega vene poolele oma võimekust nii öelda online. Vene väejuhatus sai selge kinnituse, et Ukraina rannikule liigne lähenemine on ohtlik. Ja seega on ka näiteks Kalibri laskmine Mustal Merel paiknevatelt laevadelt seotud suurema riskiga, kui sõja eelnevas faasis. Vene pool ilmsesti vajaks vahepausi, et oma vägede võitlusvõimekust taastada. | ||
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Magic Powers
Austria4167 Posts
![[image loading]](https://i.postimg.cc/x8XNHLzG/Stand-4-April-2022.png) ![[image loading]](https://i.postimg.cc/WzxF7tGB/Stand-15-Juni-2022.png) Russia is focusing heavily on Severodonetsk, that's why they've made significant grounds there. Meanwhile in many other regions they've primarily lost grounds. If you overlap the two images you can see the grounds gained vs the grounds lost is almost perfectly equal. | ||
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Manit0u
Poland17272 Posts
On June 18 2022 18:06 xM(Z wrote: i read that and said to myself: "sure, hope should die last but ...", but the reality of it is that the 'aid' for Ukraine is trickling slow enough to make it useless(and it's not what's needed there), and on the ground russians are winning. you, pointing to moral boosting, single/rare/isolated incidents to score winning points, shows me the disconnect between people(western) perception and facts on the ground. in what universe do you see russians admitting defeat, signing capitulation treaties, then leaving?. Edit: maybe to clarify - there isn't a weapon Ukraine received that the russians don't have a better counter-weapon to. you send them bullets and guns, russians pull machine guns; you send machine guns russians pull out mortars; you send mortars, russians are pulling out tanks, and so on and so forth. What do you mean? Russians have not made any significant advances for a long time while Ukrainian counter-offensive is getting closer and closer to Izium (which would halt Russian advance towards Slovyansk from this angle) and Kherson. Speaking of weapons, NATO standard weaponry is usually of higher quality and has better specs than most of what Russia has (those 777 howitzers have an effective range almost double that of Russian artillery for example). And Russia can't just willy-nilly send their stuff towards Ukraine. Remember that as long as they call it "special operation" and not "war" they literally can't mobilize enough units or send certain equipment there. They have to operate under peace-time conditions, which means understaffed units, no general mobilization etc. This is also Russian way out: call the "special operation" over (successful or not) and go home. They weren't defeated in war because there was no war (in their eyes). Also, a good piece on why just looking at day-by-day stuff might not give you the best picture: | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Sermokala
United States13956 Posts
Its a matter of cost. Russia is forced to spend billions of USD worth of projects to maintain the population and industry of the region but the agricultural sector has all but been wiped out. The soil is rapidly salinating and industrial accidents due to water shortages are an every other year thing now. They might be a reprive for this summer refilling the stocks but if Russia isn't in control of the entire Denipro river at the end of this war than Cimea becomes a huge money sink for an economy that has no future. Not getting that water supply means having to give up Crimea or giving up the entire russian state. | ||
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plasmidghost
Belgium16168 Posts
On June 18 2022 23:37 JimmiC wrote: Tons of great info on here this morning, thank you to every one who took the time to find these sources and share their insight. They will most assuredly call it successful, whenever its over. Even if it is same or less land than before they will say they have denazified and it was a complete success. Second this. I've learned a ton about the current state of the war from here and it's really reassured me | ||
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KwarK
United States42778 Posts
On June 18 2022 18:06 xM(Z wrote: i read that and said to myself: "sure, hope should die last but ...", but the reality of it is that the 'aid' for Ukraine is trickling slow enough to make it useless(and it's not what's needed there), and on the ground russians are winning. you, pointing to moral boosting, single/rare/isolated incidents to score winning points, shows me the disconnect between people(western) perception and facts on the ground. in what universe do you see russians admitting defeat, signing capitulation treaties, then leaving?. Edit: maybe to clarify - there isn't a weapon Ukraine received that the russians don't have a better counter-weapon to. you send them bullets and guns, russians pull machine guns; you send machine guns russians pull out mortars; you send mortars, russians are pulling out tanks, and so on and so forth. What you’re saying seems utterly disconnected from the reality on the ground. We send Ukraine tanks and Russia pulls tanks from the 1960s out of storage because they already lost most of their 20 year old tanks and their state of the art tanks don’t actually exist beyond a prototype used for display purposes only. | ||
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