EPTRusso-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 139
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maybenexttime
Poland5672 Posts
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KwarK
United States43268 Posts
On June 16 2022 03:39 maybenexttime wrote: Their automotive industry has been set back by a few decades, for example. A few decades ago they had one. It’s been set back a century by over reliance on imports. | ||
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Manit0u
Poland17448 Posts
It'll also be very interesting to see what will their main media say when the lie that "It's all fine, nothing to worry about." starts unraveling. ![[image loading]](https://media2.giphy.com/media/poZnXsKLvTVGo/giphy.gif?cid=ecf05e47lp9c8nwmxdl63qnied7r1c1ewfxre57spivh4jnk&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g) | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands21961 Posts
On June 16 2022 04:36 Manit0u wrote: The same thing everyone does, blame foreigners.I wonder how long can Russian supplies last? I would assume they have a few month's worth of most crucial products they were importing. And what will happen if they unfreeze their markets? Currently their economy is pretty much a zombie and it's just a matter of time when this corpse starts to fall apart. It'll also be very interesting to see what will their main media say when the lie that "It's all fine, nothing to worry about." starts unraveling. | ||
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KwarK
United States43268 Posts
On June 16 2022 04:36 Manit0u wrote: I wonder how long can Russian supplies last? I would assume they have a few month's worth of most crucial products they were importing. And what will happen if they unfreeze their markets? Currently their economy is pretty much a zombie and it's just a matter of time when this corpse starts to fall apart. It'll also be very interesting to see what will their main media say when the lie that "It's all fine, nothing to worry about." starts unraveling. They’ve already switched to “Europe is struggling under Russian sanctions just as badly”. | ||
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Sermokala
United States14048 Posts
Most analysts say that Russia won't be able to conduct another offensive for months after this one in the east. Meanwhile Ukraine gets more and more equipment from the west and the threat of famine inches closer and closer to put pressure on russia to pull back. Keep in mind that Russia needs the south of Ukraine AND the complete donbass/luhasnk to even pretend a victory in this war. | ||
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Broetchenholer
Germany1947 Posts
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Sent.
Poland9250 Posts
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Ardias
Russian Federation614 Posts
David Arakhamia (he is the leader of the Zelensky's political party) reports that "Up to 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers are being killed or wounded each day in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, with 200 to 500 killed on average and many more wounded'. (Zelensky two weeks ago said that losses were from 60 to 100 killed a day). So it is in Donbas area alone, not including Kharkov, Zaporozhie and Kherson oblasts. He also mentioned that "Ukraine has recruited one million people into the army" (Zelensky previously said 700 000). So Ukrainian army is currently much larger than Russian by manpower numbers. Though since Ukraine has basically no military production now (most of what existed before the 24.02 was kalibrated by now as well as military supply depots) it relies almost entirely on western supply of munitions. That could be a part of the reason for the changed rhetoric of Ukrainian officials, since so far supplies are much less than they could have been (not including Poles ofc). | ||
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Manit0u
Poland17448 Posts
On June 16 2022 07:12 Sent. wrote: From what I've read the situation around Severodonetsk looks awful, the offensive near Kharkiv stopped after achieving most of its goals and the offensive toward Kherson yielded only several villages so far. I think it's too early for optimism. There actually might be even more bad news in the store. There are some reports about horrible atrocities being committed by the Russians in Kherson - torture chambers and such. Those will of course remain in the rumor territory unless Ukraine can liberate Kherson. There will be some significant losses on both sides this coming weeks since there's a lot of battles going on at very large fronts. Another thing to watch out for is sickness. There are reports of rapid increase in cholera and dysentery cases behind the lines (Mariupol for example) in ruined cities and villages due to a lack of fresh drinking water and poor sanitary conditions overall. The fact that most of Ukrainians and Russians aren't inocculated against some of the contagious or otherwise unpleasant diseases doesn't help. It's actually a problem in Poland now too since it took a lot of refugees and there are now spikes in diseases that were pretty much eliminated thanks to everyone getting vaccinated (like polio for example) but Ukraine was very lax with those so such illnesses are common there. | ||
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NrG.Bamboo
United States2756 Posts
The pair were taken prisoner during a fierce battle outside the north-east city of Kharkiv last week, according to comrades who were fighting alongside them. Alexander Drueke, 39, and Andy Huynh, 27, had been serving as volunteers with a regular Ukrainian army unit. They are believed to be the first US servicemen to end up as Russian prisoners of war. They join a growing number of Western military volunteers captured by Russian forces, including at least two Britons. Aiden Aslin and Shaun Pinner have already been told they face the death penalty as "mercenaries". The capture of the two Americans will be diplomatically sensitive as the Kremlin may seek to use it as proof that America is becoming directly involved in the war. Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, is likely to demand significant concessions to release them. Source: https://archive.ph/2xQtx There have already been quite a few KIA mercenaries from various places (UK, and Brazil off the top of my head, and a couple US, though nobody has admitted it yet) but I'm curious to see how these cases are handled. It's difficult to assume that Putin would give them up without a rather fat prisoner exchange or other promises. I also wonder whether RU would follow in the DPR's lead of execution (for the 2 UK 1 Moroccan captured,) or if they would rule separately for some benefit. | ||
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NrG.Bamboo
United States2756 Posts
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NrG.Bamboo
United States2756 Posts
edit2: Might as well recycle this post (triple post, if you can believe it) to share my go-to map artist. He doesn't seem biased, and takes in reports from both sides and draws the lines to what makes the most sense, and edits as new reports come in. After all, none of us actually knows what's really going on when it comes to front. Most latest report (uploaded every two days.) | ||
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Manit0u
Poland17448 Posts
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Husyelt
United States837 Posts
On June 16 2022 06:52 Broetchenholer wrote: I hope you guys are right. To me the articles I have read lately seemed to suggest that Ukraine is getting very tired. I would hope for a total loss for Russia, as soon as possible, but I will believe it when I see it. You can look at any of the various Western maps and Kremlin maps to see the trajectory. Russia invaded on 3 different front and tried to overthrow the entire country in the first month. Heavy losses and supply issues forced them to retreat and now they are focused solely on the Donbas territory. Here they can use their actual superiority and just shell the shit out of the closer cities and positions with heavy artillery and slowly crawl forward. TLDR: Russia's hope for a quick collapse failed, way worse losses, overestimated their position. So now its a focused mission where they hope the West will lose interest and they can win the Donbas territory in a elongated war. https://www.understandingwar.org/ has the best up to date maps, and strategy theories. From my limited POV, I think Russia will make decent gains in the next month and attempt to renegotiate, bluffing that they can continue the full war effort. (You want __________ to be the next Mariople?) Ukraine wont bite, and the slower war will move forward. Any rational leader or country would have likely abandoned the war effort after the first month, but Putin can't afford to look weak, and needs Donbas as a liberation moment from the nazis or whatever insanity they conjure up. EDIT: TLDR2.0 Russia has no chance at conquering Ukraine, let alone ruling it afterwards now | ||
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NrG.Bamboo
United States2756 Posts
On June 16 2022 11:40 Husyelt wrote: You can look at any of the various Western maps and Kremlin maps to see the trajectory. Russia invaded on 3 different front and tried to overthrow the entire country in the first month. Heavy losses and supply issues forced them to retreat and now they are focused solely on the Donbas territory. Here they can use their actual superiority and just shell the shit out of the closer cities and positions with heavy artillery and slowly crawl forward. TLDR: Russia's hope for a quick collapse failed, way worse losses, overestimated their position. So now its a focused mission where they hope the West will lose interest and they can win the Donbas territory in a elongated war. https://www.understandingwar.org/ has the best up to date maps, and strategy theories. From my limited POV, I think Russia will make decent gains in the next month and attempt to renegotiate, bluffing that they can continue the full war effort. (You want __________ to be the next Mariople?) Ukraine wont bite, and the slower war will move forward. Any rational leader or country would have likely abandoned the war effort after the first month, but Putin can't afford to look weak, and needs Donbas as a liberation moment from the nazis or whatever insanity they conjure up. EDIT: TLDR2.0 Russia has no chance at conquering Ukraine, let alone ruling it afterwards now To be honest, ISW is pretty fucking biased lol. | ||
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Sermokala
United States14048 Posts
On June 16 2022 07:12 Sent. wrote: From what I've read the situation around Severodonetsk looks awful, the offensive near Kharkiv stopped after achieving most of its goals and the offensive toward Kherson yielded only several villages so far. I think it's too early for optimism. The situation around sev isn't that bad. For all the Russian expenditure it's been reinforced and is holding to some degree. It's turning into a series of ruins that will gain Russia nothing. When Ukraine leaves and crosses the river there is another city for Russia to grind through again and because they've damaged the bridges so much they won't be able to cross it with any armored units to press any advantage they would have. It's impossible to pontoon the crossing due to the rivers features meaning it's a giant moat when Ukraine decides to start using it. Ukraine got a brigade across before there was significant damage to the crossings that are there. Kherson yielded 7 villages from it's first phase after crossing the river but it's increased the frontage of the Russians a lot. I'm just saying Russia literally can't replace their losses except for older and older stores. Everything they've been able to conquer is ruins and mass graves. There is no winning this war for.them. | ||
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RvB
Netherlands6257 Posts
On June 16 2022 12:23 NrG.Bamboo wrote: To be honest, ISW is pretty fucking biased lol. Based on what do you say that? | ||
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Deleted User 137586
7859 Posts
On June 16 2022 10:23 NrG.Bamboo wrote: edit: just kill me edit2: Might as well recycle this post (triple post, if you can believe it) to share my go-to map artist. He doesn't seem biased, and takes in reports from both sides and draws the lines to what makes the most sense, and edits as new reports come in. After all, none of us actually knows what's really going on when it comes to front. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZIaqAgU_rI Most latest report (uploaded every two days.) To distinguish between reliable and unreliable reports, one needs to have access to grounding data, I. E., a security clearance. That's why sources like ISW, Rainer Saks, etc. are invaluable. They'll tell you about the situation based on OSINT but they use their own sources to filter bad data. | ||
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iopq
United States1008 Posts
On June 16 2022 11:40 Husyelt wrote: From my limited POV, I think Russia will make decent gains in the next month and attempt to renegotiate It seems their offensive in Donbass has culminated. They don't have anything else, except maybe taking Severodonetsk I disagree with the assessment that Russia is able to advance anywhere in Ukraine. They will try for a few weeks, but won't make any headway. We'll see how various counter-offenses by Ukraine will do. I think in July we'll see more concrete gains | ||
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