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NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets. Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source. | ||
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Husyelt
United States832 Posts
On June 16 2022 12:23 NrG.Bamboo wrote: To be honest, ISW is pretty fucking biased lol. https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1537391345148493824?s=21&t=Q-OcD1ss7RloR3XtrRtcjA Here’s the leaders of Germany, Italy and France using an ISW map on the ground today. (It’s an older map to show how far Russians got initially) | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Deleted User 137586
7859 Posts
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Ardias
Russian Federation610 Posts
On June 16 2022 10:20 NrG.Bamboo wrote: Two Americans are assumed to have been captured outside of Kharkov. Source: https://archive.ph/2xQtx There have already been quite a few KIA mercenaries from various places (UK, and Brazil off the top of my head, and a couple US, though nobody has admitted it yet) but I'm curious to see how these cases are handled. It's difficult to assume that Putin would give them up without a rather fat prisoner exchange or other promises. I also wonder whether RU would follow in the DPR's lead of execution (for the 2 UK 1 Moroccan captured,) or if they would rule separately for some benefit. Russia doesn't have a death penalty (or rather, has indefinite moratorium on its use, which hasn't been cancelled yet), so the harshest punishment they get is life imprisonment. Which gives possibility to later exchange them. On June 16 2022 09:22 Manit0u wrote: The fact that most of Ukrainians and Russians aren't inocculated against some of the contagious or otherwise unpleasant diseases doesn't help. It's actually a problem in Poland now too since it took a lot of refugees and there are now spikes in diseases that were pretty much eliminated thanks to everyone getting vaccinated (like polio for example) but Ukraine was very lax with those so such illnesses are common there. About vaccines - don't know exactly about Ukraine, but Russia is pretty vell vaccinated. Kids during first two years of their life are treated with vaccines against measles, polio, hepatitis B, tuberculosis, whooping cough, tetanus, pneumococcus, parotitis, rubella and diphteria. And even though you can refuse doing them, even if there is no medical problems with that, you still can get troubles getting into kindergarten or school without them, so most people prefer not to skip them. On June 16 2022 06:29 Sermokala wrote: Most analysts say that Russia won't be able to conduct another offensive for months after this one in the east. Meanwhile Ukraine gets more and more equipment from the west and the threat of famine inches closer and closer to put pressure on russia to pull back. How famine is a threat to Russia, exactly? | ||
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Simberto
Germany11521 Posts
On June 17 2022 18:33 Ardias wrote: Russia doesn't have a death penalty (or rather, has indefinite moratorium on its use, which hasn't been cancelled yet), so the harshest punishment they get is life imprisonment. Which gives possibility to later exchange them. About vaccines - don't know exactly about Ukraine, but Russia is pretty vell vaccinated. Kids during first two years of they life are threated with vaccines against measles, polio, hepatitis B, tuberculosis, whooping cough, tetanus, pneumococcus, parotitis, rubella and diphteria. And even though you can refuse doing them, even if there is no medical problems with that, you still can get troubles getting into kindergarten or school without them, so most people prefer not to skil them. How famine is a threat to Russia, exactly? It may make other people more angry at Russia for starting a fucking famine for no reason. | ||
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Deleted User 137586
7859 Posts
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Sermokala
United States13956 Posts
On June 17 2022 18:33 Ardias wrote: Russia doesn't have a death penalty (or rather, has indefinite moratorium on its use, which hasn't been cancelled yet), so the harshest punishment they get is life imprisonment. Which gives possibility to later exchange them. About vaccines - don't know exactly about Ukraine, but Russia is pretty vell vaccinated. Kids during first two years of they life are threated with vaccines against measles, polio, hepatitis B, tuberculosis, whooping cough, tetanus, pneumococcus, parotitis, rubella and diphteria. And even though you can refuse doing them, even if there is no medical problems with that, you still can get troubles getting into kindergarten or school without them, so most people prefer not to skil them. How famine is a threat to Russia, exactly? The nations that depended on food exports like Egypt that can't get enough anymore because the source they got it from is being invaded/ blockaded. | ||
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Ardias
Russian Federation610 Posts
On June 17 2022 20:49 Sermokala wrote: The nations that depended on food exports like Egypt that can't get enough anymore because the source they got it from is being invaded/ blockaded. I doubt Kremlin percieves the famine as a threat. It rather considers it a tool to lift sanctions: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/kremlin-says-sanctions-must-be-lifted-russian-grain-reach-markets-2022-06-08/ So I believe Putin will ride this horse further, together with fossil fuel issues like this https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/canada-reports-talks-with-germany-siemens-made-nord-stream-1-equipment-2022-06-16/ Plus seems that at least Egypt still finds ways to continue (and even increase) Russian imports. I guess Russia will just divert there those grain supplies, that were supposed to go to EU. And if US, for example, threat Egyptian importers for violation of sanctions, then Russia will toss the ball at US, insisting that this is US that wants to cause famine in Egypt, while Russia is ready to provide. https://www.world-grain.com/articles/17051-egypt-imports-more-wheat-from-russia-in-march-may-period | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Sent.
Poland9200 Posts
On June 17 2022 13:49 Ghanburighan wrote: Nice infographic on promises vs deliveries to UA. https://twitter.com/maxfras/status/1537347929194774529 Full research paper with that table is available for download here: https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/ | ||
KwarK
United States42778 Posts
On June 17 2022 21:58 JimmiC wrote: The Russian leadership has said the sepratists in Donbas and others use the dealth penalty and they dont wamt to upset the locals. They are saying they will execute them. They could be using that to negotiate, it is not like tge Russian government is known for honesty or being straightforward. But the moratorium does not apply. This is a very weird fuck around and find out strategy. Firstly, and let’s make this absolutely 100% clear, the British Ukrainians they have sentenced to death aren’t mercenaries. They’re both married to Ukrainian women and have lived in Ukraine for years. One is a Ukrainian citizen (but didn’t formally abandon his British citizenship so he technically still has it), the other was in the process of becoming a Ukrainian citizen. They live in Ukraine, their families are in Ukraine, they’re Ukrainians whose country was invaded and who are defending it. They just happen to have the right to British passports. There are foreigners who went to Ukraine to fight but these two absolutely aren’t those. However, as POWs who are also British citizens it would be a pretty big diplomatic issue for an internationally unrecognized rogue state to murder them. That’s the kind of thing that would absolutely require an extreme response. You can’t capture British citizens and then hang them, Britain may not be the superpower it was a century ago but it is still a great power and can absolutely fuck a country up. Obviously these are not genuinely independent rogue states, they’re Russian proxies, which is why Britain is going to Russia and saying to stop fucking around with threats of murdering POWs. Russia is pretending to have no influence over their proxies and insisting that this is out of their hands. This is a very stupid game to play because in the hypothetical scenario in which Britain accepts the argument that a rogue element in Eastern Ukraine has declared independence, taken British citizens hostage, and plans to kill them, it is fully entitled and able to go fuck that rogue element up. Just bomb the shit out of them. Sail an aircraft carrier into the Black Sea and engage. If some Russians happen to be there that’d be unfortunate but the only diplomatic clearance they’d need to respond to the terrorism in Eastern Ukraine is the Ukrainian government’s. The only reason that Britain doesn’t just go ahead and do that is that the whole argument is nonsense, there’s no independent rogue state in Eastern Ukraine, there’s a Russian proxy. The people Britain would be bombing would be Russian soldiers and as a courtesy to Russia Britain is asking Russia to drop the act and stop fucking around. And Russia is absolutely not going to let their proxies murder some POWs because they understand this as well as everyone else. They can’t have it both ways, either it’s nothing to do with them in which case it is open season for direct action or it is to do with them in which case they can’t start murdering POWs. Right now the West is extending Russia the courtesy of not believing the stupid things Russia says. When Russia declares that it has no influence over its proxies the West recognizes that Russia is lying rather than impotent. That they’re just pretending to be incompetent but that actually they are still capable of controlling their shit. And they’re right to do so in this instance, Russia won’t let their proxies take the monumentally stupid step of murdering POWs. But in the hypothetical scenario that Russia did allow it, their prize would be the de facto recognition of a rogue terrorist state in Eastern Ukraine that is separate from Russia, and that’s not a prize they want. | ||
zatic
Zurich15329 Posts
But then again. They have killed UK citizens before. In UK. And have no problem insisting that their insane fantasy fairyland is in fact reality. I mean just yesterday Lavrov insisted that Russia has not invaded Ukraine. Maintaining two or more contradicting realities are all true is kind of a Russian specialty. I would be exactly zero surprised if Lavrov states that they have no influence on the sovereign republic of DNR while insisting that any attack on DNR is in fact an attack on Russian home soil. | ||
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Mohdoo
United States15690 Posts
1) How is Russia making gains when the entire world is arming Ukraine? Are countries just giving Ukraine tiny bits of military stuff? 2) If countries are being really stingy with what they give Ukraine, are they trying to drag out the war to bleed Russia dry? It feels like the weapons and aid being given to Ukraine is entirely useless if Ukraine just ends up losing. So if countries are choosing to give Ukraine less than they could, what is the value of giving anything at all if Ukraine just keeps losing territory? 3) Is it possible that the west is basically just trying to make Russia think they have a chance of success, only to up their aid later on, and basically leave Russia in shambles? It is hard to understand the logic at play with how much countries are willing to help, but not enough to actually prevent land from being lost. 4) More generally speaking, is Russia doing a really good job right now, or am I missing something? In spite of everything against them, continuing to gain ground seems really impressive. But maybe I am just not understanding the actual extent of aid. Do we have a good understanding of Russian vs Western costs/losses? Is Russia just more efficient? | ||
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Manit0u
Poland17273 Posts
On June 18 2022 02:20 Mohdoo wrote: A couple questions if people don't mind answering: 1) How is Russia making gains when the entire world is arming Ukraine? Are countries just giving Ukraine tiny bits of military stuff? 2) If countries are being really stingy with what they give Ukraine, are they trying to drag out the war to bleed Russia dry? It feels like the weapons and aid being given to Ukraine is entirely useless if Ukraine just ends up losing. So if countries are choosing to give Ukraine less than they could, what is the value of giving anything at all if Ukraine just keeps losing territory? 3) Is it possible that the west is basically just trying to make Russia think they have a chance of success, only to up their aid later on, and basically leave Russia in shambles? It is hard to understand the logic at play with how much countries are willing to help, but not enough to actually prevent land from being lost. 4) More generally speaking, is Russia doing a really good job right now, or am I missing something? In spite of everything against them, continuing to gain ground seems really impressive. But maybe I am just not understanding the actual extent of aid. Do we have a good understanding of Russian vs Western costs/losses? Is Russia just more efficient? Ad. 1: Russia is making very little gains actually. There are weeks when frontline doesn't move an inch. If you consider what territory they captured in the first weeks of this war they've lost a lot of it up to this point. Recent maps show Ukraine making more gains than Russia. Ad. 2: Countries are stingy because of many reasons. They can't give away so much as to not deplete their own forces, there are various political and economic ties and issues that are at stake too. Ad. 3: Russia has pretty much lost this war in the first month or two. Their country will be set back by decades after this is over. All they can hope for now really is to have some kind of success to end this (and at this point they really can't). All the potential trials for human rights abuses won't help them, or the fact that most of the world now doesn't view them in the same way - that is, they're not viewed as this immense superpower that can just steamroll you. The PR loss for them is huge and this might lead to more problems for them down the line when all the smaller neighboring countries that were bullied by them for years come to a realization that maybe Russia isn't so scary after all. The bear has slept for too long and is well past its prime... Ad. 4: Russia is not doing a great job. They're leveling cities and capturing some minor towns at great cost. Whatever territory they capture is pretty much a ruined wasteland that'll take years and billions of dollars to restore. Losses on both sides are big but the general consensus seems to be that the loss ratio is about 3:1 in favor of Ukraine, which is kinda bad news for Russia because you need 3:1 numerical advantage as an attacker to have a successful operation and they started at closer to 1:1. | ||
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Neneu
Norway492 Posts
On June 18 2022 02:20 Mohdoo wrote: A couple questions if people don't mind answering: 1) How is Russia making gains when the entire world is arming Ukraine? Are countries just giving Ukraine tiny bits of military stuff? 2) If countries are being really stingy with what they give Ukraine, are they trying to drag out the war to bleed Russia dry? It feels like the weapons and aid being given to Ukraine is entirely useless if Ukraine just ends up losing. So if countries are choosing to give Ukraine less than they could, what is the value of giving anything at all if Ukraine just keeps losing territory? 3) Is it possible that the west is basically just trying to make Russia think they have a chance of success, only to up their aid later on, and basically leave Russia in shambles? It is hard to understand the logic at play with how much countries are willing to help, but not enough to actually prevent land from being lost. 4) More generally speaking, is Russia doing a really good job right now, or am I missing something? In spite of everything against them, continuing to gain ground seems really impressive. But maybe I am just not understanding the actual extent of aid. Do we have a good understanding of Russian vs Western costs/losses? Is Russia just more efficient? 1) They aren't making as big gains as it seems in certain media. The line haven't been moving a lot lately and there's quite a bit of trench warfare, with brutal attempts to bust the trench, eerily similar to certain battles in ww1 and something we haven't seen since then in Europe. 2) Well this one is a bit interesting and there seems to be a divide regarding this in NATO. Some generals, like Ben Hodges who commanded US Army Europe not that long ago, said at the recent Ax:son Johnsons Engelsberg seminar that he believes the Russian Army will collapse in late August. At that time they will, according to him, be out of ammunition, soldiers and spare parts. Therefor it makes sense increase the delivery and training so that Ukraine will be ready for a major offensive in late summer, when the russian army is hitting the breaking point. However, other Generals like Adrian Bradshaw (former Deputy Supreme Allied Commander in Europe) are more of the belief that it is important to not give too high amount of weapons, since the win is not guaranteed. The line of thought here is that the number one priority of NATO is to keep member states safe and if Ukraine falls, member states who have majorly compromised their own military capabilities due to weapon aid to Ukraine, now have a security issue. This follows the same idea which is the cause for the famous historic event when the King of Sicilly delayed his promised deliverance of soldiers to help the besieged ally Malta, who were being attacked by the Ottomans. There is also the 'problem' that if Russian military collapses is late August, Putin will probably be eager to negotiate, something Germany and France is very keen to do. This could end up with Ukraine being "forced" a ceasefire, which stops the major offensive in late summer. This combined with the reasoning from the paragraph above, could be an explanation of why certain countries are slow to deliver what they promised, or give new significant promises. Personally, I find this to be a terrible option and would leave Europe and Ukraine with a more dangerous neighbor, who we know invades to force its will. If the focus then switches to Asia over time, this new 'minsk' agreement would make us and Ukraine significantly more vulnerable. Thankfully, as seen in the graphic a few posts above this one, my country agrees with me. 3) I believe the answer above answer this one as well. 4) They aren't doing as well as it seems and they aren't as effective as they give the impression of. There are major losses on both sides, and there aren't much data that Russia is more efficient atm, most of what I've seen suggests the opposite. Russia do however have good reason to make us believe they are doing well. Currently there are high-intensive warfare, focused around artillery bombardment and aggressive trench warfare with a lot of attempted busts. Both those things give high amount of casualties. | ||
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xM(Z
Romania5281 Posts
what happens there now is both needed and useless. zijdrg;osrnthdgyj | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands21707 Posts
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hitthat
Poland2267 Posts
On June 17 2022 13:49 Ghanburighan wrote: Nice infographic on promises vs deliveries to UA. https://twitter.com/maxfras/status/1537347929194774529 For me Czechs and balts are the quiet heroes. Czechs gave the important weapon systems in the most crucial time while Balts gave more than it was expected from them. | ||
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Manit0u
Poland17273 Posts
On June 18 2022 06:27 Gorsameth wrote: I disagree that it is inevitable that Ukraine loses Donbas. Russia is making no progress and can't keep this up forever. Ukraine with western aid can outlast Russia in material, tho manpower might be the bigger issue. Ukraine has big reserves of manpower to draw upon. The problem here is time required to train them. I would assume that some of their potential replenishments are being trained at bases in Poland and other NATO countries, but it takes time. They have 900k reserve personnel and 7-11 million people fit/available for military service. Russia can't match that unless it officially scales up from "special operation" to "war". So, if anything equipment is the bigger problem for Ukraine. Donbas and Crimea are a complicated matter. Zelensky stated before that Ukraine won't accept anything that's not getting their borders back from before the 2014 invasion (which includes Donbas and Crimea) but even if Russian offensive crumbles taking all of those back might be a lengthy affair and I'm not sure Ukraine has enough men in active duty to undergo it. Remains to be seen. On June 18 2022 07:59 hitthat wrote: For me Czechs and balts are the quiet heroes. Czechs gave the important weapon systems in the most crucial time while Balts gave more than it was expected from them. Czechs don't give a fuck and want to get back at Russia for their agents blowing up their weapon stores some years back. | ||
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plasmidghost
Belgium16168 Posts
On June 18 2022 08:02 Manit0u wrote: Ukraine has big reserves of manpower to draw upon. The problem here is time required to train them. I would assume that some of their potential replenishments are being trained at bases in Poland and other NATO countries, but it takes time. They have 900k reserve personnel and 7-11 million people fit/available for military service. Russia can't match that unless it officially scales up from "special operation" to "war". So, if anything equipment is the bigger problem for Ukraine. Donbas and Crimea are a complicated matter. Zelensky stated before that Ukraine won't accept anything that's not getting their borders back from before the 2014 invasion (which includes Donbas and Crimea) but even if Russian offensive crumbles taking all of those back might be a lengthy affair and I'm not sure Ukraine has enough men in active duty to undergo it. Remains to be seen. Czechs don't give a fuck and want to get back at Russia for their agents blowing up their weapon stores some years back. Can second the Czech statement, the family I have there fucking hate Russia | ||
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