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Russo-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 143

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NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.

Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source.
Yurie
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
12083 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-06-19 17:57:44
June 19 2022 17:56 GMT
#2841
On June 20 2022 00:38 Mohdoo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 19 2022 14:27 Sermokala wrote:
On June 19 2022 13:57 Mohdoo wrote:
The thing that makes me shrug off the famine thing is that if that were ever at risk of actually taking place, the US would be sending a fleet of planes to clean the situation up.

Nukes or famine, its all the same. Once Russia is choosing to basically burn the world down, there is no reason not to engage militarily.

You can't ship grain by plane. We're talking a product in the tens of millions of tonnes. Product that would have to run on train lines through a space that Russia can just send down a missle to destroy. I have no idea if the train lines are even still intact at this point. Russia was happy to send rockets at train stations filled with civilians, what are they willing to do to traincars and grain silos?

This isn't an immediate issue for the US and Europe. We're both going to be just fine, what everyone should be worried about is the middle east and Africa's fragile governments collpaseing due to a lack of a food.

If you thought inflation on food was bad now just wait until there isn't enough in the world to go around.

I meant sending military planes, bombers, and wiping out Russia’s entire occupation. Im saying the world is holding back a lot so as not to risk major confrontation, but once food supply is at risk, there’s a lot less to lose.


Nobody that can perform those actions will suffer from the food shortage. Egypt is likely to be the most militarily powerful nation suffering a lot from it.

Though perhaps India or Pakistan would indirectly suffer but seems unlikely to me.
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15743 Posts
June 19 2022 18:59 GMT
#2842
I really don't think it is as simple as "If my country will still have food, this doesn't impact me". The world is too entangled for Europe and the US to just whistle to themselves as people starve.
justanothertownie
Profile Joined July 2013
16325 Posts
June 19 2022 19:08 GMT
#2843
On June 20 2022 03:59 Mohdoo wrote:
I really don't think it is as simple as "If my country will still have food, this doesn't impact me". The world is too entangled for Europe and the US to just whistle to themselves as people starve.

I wouldn't be too sure about that.
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands22288 Posts
June 19 2022 19:09 GMT
#2844
On June 20 2022 03:59 Mohdoo wrote:
I really don't think it is as simple as "If my country will still have food, this doesn't impact me". The world is too entangled for Europe and the US to just whistle to themselves as people starve.
People somewhere in Africa are starving basically every year, we haven't cared much about it ever before.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
Manit0u
Profile Blog Joined August 2004
Poland17733 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-06-19 19:40:01
June 19 2022 19:30 GMT
#2845
On June 19 2022 06:02 Ardias wrote:
Well, your reasoning raises even more questions. US Army has enough M1s just in storage to reequip Ukraine tank formations three times from scratch.

I wonder why only old pieces of junk that have seen Vietnam war were sent in terms of armor support?


The thing is, M1 is completely different than T-72 that Ukrainians were using. You can't just send them over and be done with it. It takes months to train the tank crew and most of their skills won't be easily transferable (different engine, different loading mechanism, different everything). Instead they did the smart thing and Poland has sent a large number of T-72 tanks to Ukraine, whose tank crews are already familiar with so no extra training required and most likely even not swapping out the labels for their native language wouldn't be a big deal. In exchange Poland will be the ones to get M1s as they have the time to train their crews on them.

It's a win-win for everyone: Ukraine gets what it needs most and that it can apply immediately while Poland gets to modernize their tank divisions. If the war drags on then Ukrainian crews can be trained in Poland (who'll be familiar with M1 at this point) and future M1s can be sent directly to Ukraine.

You have to realize that this entire aid effort, lend-lease etc. is not designed to win the war for UA immediately. It's all designed with protracted conflict in mind. As long as UA can just hold off it's OK because with each passing month RU will be in deeper and deeper shit while UA will get more and more aid flowing in. There will be a tipping point in the future (can be months, can be years) where RU is simply bled dry and UA has a bunch of brand new toys to play with and that's when they'll really launch a full scale counter offensive. Right now all they have to do is sit tight and wait while Russia is running out of time and it'll get harder and harder for them with each passing day.
Time is precious. Waste it wisely.
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
June 19 2022 19:34 GMT
#2846
--- Nuked ---
Ardias
Profile Joined January 2014
Russian Federation618 Posts
June 19 2022 21:07 GMT
#2847
On June 20 2022 04:30 Manit0u wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 19 2022 06:02 Ardias wrote:
Well, your reasoning raises even more questions. US Army has enough M1s just in storage to reequip Ukraine tank formations three times from scratch.

I wonder why only old pieces of junk that have seen Vietnam war were sent in terms of armor support?


The thing is, M1 is completely different than T-72 that Ukrainians were using. You can't just send them over and be done with it. It takes months to train the tank crew and most of their skills won't be easily transferable (different engine, different loading mechanism, different everything). Instead they did the smart thing and Poland has sent a large number of T-72 tanks to Ukraine, whose tank crews are already familiar with so no extra training required and most likely even not swapping out the labels for their native language wouldn't be a big deal. In exchange Poland will be the ones to get M1s as they have the time to train their crews on them.

It's a win-win for everyone: Ukraine gets what it needs most and that it can apply immediately while Poland gets to modernize their tank divisions. If the war drags on then Ukrainian crews can be trained in Poland (who'll be familiar with M1 at this point) and future M1s can be sent directly to Ukraine.

You have to realize that this entire aid effort, lend-lease etc. is not designed to win the war for UA immediately. It's all designed with protracted conflict in mind. As long as UA can just hold off it's OK because with each passing month RU will be in deeper and deeper shit while UA will get more and more aid flowing in. There will be a tipping point in the future (can be months, can be years) where RU is simply bled dry and UA has a bunch of brand new toys to play with and that's when they'll really launch a full scale counter offensive. Right now all they have to do is sit tight and wait while Russia is running out of time and it'll get harder and harder for them with each passing day.

Your explanation is still not satisfactory. I'm not saying that they should drop M1s straight into combat, but they were not even announced to be sent. And your argument works as well for self-propelled artillery, yet Ukraine already has a goddamn zoo of those, with CEASARs, DANAs, M109s and PzH2000, to be followed by AS-90 and Krabs, that are crawling along with remnants of 2S1, 2S3, 2S7 and 2S19 (and I'm not even talking about towed artillery or MLRS there).
Same thing stands for APCs. US considers UA capable enough of only driving around M113s? Which part of M2 they consider too sophisticated to use, Bushmaster or TOW? The latter was litteraly supplied en masse to the likes of Iraqis and Syrian rebels.
Reasoning for the huge amount of Polish supplies I've provided in my long post couple of pages ago, but you've basicaly repeated me. I do not question the extent of support of Eastern European countries. What's more interesting is that at this point of time Norway (!) provided more artillery pieces to Ukraine than UK, France and Germany combined (I'm not counting those that were announced, since AS-90s were rumored to be sent like two months ago).
Kwark in his reply to me said, that sending existing weaponry to Ukraine to fight Russians costs basically nothing. and is the most effective and cheap way to diminish one of the key opponents to US and its allies. But so far actions of the big Western players seem to contradict that statement, since Ukraine from the mid-May is pleading desperately for artillery and heavy armor, yet little of that was even announced, much less actually sent. For now they are plugging the holes with hastily mobilized militia.
Mess with the best or die like the rest.
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
June 19 2022 21:29 GMT
#2848
--- Nuked ---
Manit0u
Profile Blog Joined August 2004
Poland17733 Posts
June 19 2022 21:44 GMT
#2849
An analysis of economies after 100 days of war:

Time is precious. Waste it wisely.
Lmui
Profile Joined November 2010
Canada6223 Posts
June 19 2022 23:27 GMT
#2850
On June 20 2022 06:44 Manit0u wrote:
An analysis of economies after 100 days of war:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qGGwO99fQaI


I love watching these things because it's such a high level look at the conflict.

Good comparison to WW1 France.
France lost almost 900 people, dead, daily, for 1500 days.
If there's a will to fight, the war in Ukraine can continue for many more months and years.
Losing 100 people a day to artillery, or 200, or 300, really doesn't move the needle, provided that Russia's losing at least as many as well.

What Ukraine desperately needs is self-propelled artillery, as compared to towed. As long as you can keep it fueled, it's far more effective than towed artillery. The CAESAR system that France is provided has been pretty damn good so far. The lack of complete air supremacy on either side has meant that drones with artillery are the king of the battlefield right now.
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23895 Posts
June 20 2022 03:52 GMT
#2851
On June 20 2022 03:59 Mohdoo wrote:
I really don't think it is as simple as "If my country will still have food, this doesn't impact me". The world is too entangled for Europe and the US to just whistle to themselves as people starve.

You may want to look into the famine in Yemen.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15743 Posts
June 20 2022 04:57 GMT
#2852
On June 20 2022 12:52 GreenHorizons wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 20 2022 03:59 Mohdoo wrote:
I really don't think it is as simple as "If my country will still have food, this doesn't impact me". The world is too entangled for Europe and the US to just whistle to themselves as people starve.

You may want to look into the famine in Yemen.


Famine in yemen is famine in yemen. It isn't nearly as widespread as Ukraine no longer shipping food. I am saying ukraine suddenly not being an exporter is a totally differnet level of food scarcity.
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
June 21 2022 07:23 GMT
#2853
This BBC article on what's happening inside RU controlled areas clearly shows why we must not waste time. Warning, long, gruesome read about the torture of Ukrainians.

Andriy watched anxiously as Russian soldiers connected his mobile to their computer, trying to restore some files. Andriy, a 28-year-old marketing officer, was attempting to leave Mariupol. He had deleted everything he thought a Russian soldier could use against him, such as text messages discussing Russia's invasion of Ukraine or photos of the devastation in his city caused by weeks of relentless shelling.

But the internet in Mariupol, a once bustling port in southern Ukraine, had been cut off as part of the siege imposed by Russia, and Andriy had not been able to take down some of his posts on social media. He remembered the first days of the war, when he had shared some anti-Russian messages and speeches from the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky.

"I'm screwed," he thought.

The soldiers, Andriy said, already had their focus on him. On that day in early May, when he first joined the queues for filtration in Bezimenne, a small village to the east of Mariupol, one of the soldiers noticed his beard. Filtration is how the process of scrutinising civilians wishing to leave Russian-occupied areas is known. The soldier, Andriy said, instantly assumed the beard was a sign that he was a fighter with the Azov regiment, a former militia in the city which once had links with the far right.

"Is it you and your brigade killing our guys?," Andriy was asked. He replied he had never served in the army, he started working directly after graduating, but "they didn't want to hear it".

As the soldiers went through his phone, they turned to his political views, and asked his opinion of Zelensky. Andriy, cautiously, said Zelensky was "okay", and one of the soldiers wanted to know what he meant by that. Andriy told him Zelensky was just another president, not very different from those who had come before, and that in fact, he was not very interested in politics. "Well," the soldier replied, "you should just say you aren't interested in politics."

They kept Andriy's phone and told him to wait outside. He met his grandmother, mother and aunt, who had arrived with him and had already been given a document that allowed them to leave. A few minutes later, Andriy said, he was ordered to go to a tent where members of Russia's security service, the FSB, were carrying out further checks.

Five officers were sitting behind a desk, three wearing balaclavas. They showed Andriy a video he had shared on Instagram of a speech Zelensky had given, from 1 March. With it was a caption written by Andriy: "A president we can be proud of. Go home with your warship!" One of the officers took the lead. "You told us you're neutral to politics, but you support the Nazi government," Andriy recalled being told. "He hit me in the throat. He basically started the beating."

Like Andriy, Dmytro had his phone confiscated at a checkpoint as he tried to leave Mariupol in late March. Dmytro, a 34-year-old history teacher, said the soldiers came across the word "ruscist", a play on "Russia" and "fascist", in a message to a friend. The soldiers, Dmytro told me, slapped and kicked him, and "everything [happened] because I used that word."

Dmytro said he was taken, with four other people, to a police station in the village of Nikolsky, also a filtration point. "The highest-ranking officer punched me four times in the face," he said. "It seemed to be part of the procedure".

His interrogators said teachers like him were spreading pro-Ukrainian propaganda. They also asked what he thought about "the events of 2014", the year that Russia annexed the Crimea peninsula and started supporting pro-Russian separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk. He replied that the conflict was known as the Russo-Ukrainian war. "They said Russia was not involved, and asked me whether I agreed that it was, in fact, a Ukrainian civil war."

The officers checked his phone again, and this time found a photo of a book which had the letter H in its title. "We got you!" the soldiers told Dmytro. Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, claims his war in Ukraine is an effort to "de-Nazify" the country, and the soldiers, Dmytro said, believed he was reading books about Hitler.

The next morning, Dmytro was transferred with two women to a prison in Starobesheve, a separatist-controlled village in Donetsk. He counted 24 people in the four-bunk cell. After four days and another detailed interrogation, he was finally released, and eventually reached Ukrainian-held territory. Weeks later, he still does not know what happened to his cell mates.

Back inside the tent in Bezimenne, Andriy noticed two other people with their hands tied behind them, who had been left in a corner while the officers paid attention to him. "They started to beat me way harder," Andriy told me, "everywhere". At one point, after a blow to the stomach, he felt as if he was about to faint. He managed to sit on a chair.

"I wondered what would be better," he said, "to lose consciousness and fall down or tolerate the pain further."

At least, Andriy thought, he had not been taken somewhere else, away from his family. Ukrainian officials say thousands of people are believed to have been sent to detention centres and camps set up in Russian-controlled areas during filtration. In almost all cases, their relatives do not know where they are being held, or why. "I [was] very angry about everything," Andriy said, "but, at the same time, I know it could've been much worse."

His mother tried to get into the tent, but was stopped by the officers. "She was very nervous. She later said they had told her that my 're-education' had started," Andriy said, "and that she shouldn't be worried." His ordeal, he told me, continued for two and a half hours. He was even forced to make a video saying "Glory to the Russian army!", a mockery of "Slava Ukraini!", the Ukrainian slogan.

The final question, Andriy said, was whether he had "understood his mistakes", and "I obviously answered yes". As he was being released, officers brought in another man, who had previously served in Ukraine's military and had several tattoos. "They immediately pushed him to the ground and started to beat him," Andriy said. "They didn't even talk to him."
...
Source


Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
SSIII
Profile Joined June 2022
China60 Posts
June 21 2022 08:52 GMT
#2854
On June 21 2022 16:23 Ghanburighan wrote:
This BBC article on what's happening inside RU controlled areas clearly shows why we must not waste time. Warning, long, gruesome read about the torture of Ukrainians.


BBC articles always start with the victim's name, making you feel the things they were through, so I only read their articles in daylight, otherwise you wouldn't have a good sleep at night.
Manit0u
Profile Blog Joined August 2004
Poland17733 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-06-21 11:22:56
June 21 2022 11:22 GMT
#2855
It seems that UA defence in the east (Severodonetsk area) is collapsing as RU is pushing a lot of men there and are gaining ground regardless of horrible losses.
UA seems to be focusing on the counter-offensive in the southeast (Kherson area) but they're not making much progress. There might be an opening in RU defences in the area though as they have to shift a lot of men towards Kherson which will leave other occupied regions vulnerable.

I guess that by the end of this week we might see some changes in the amount of controlled territory for both sides finally.

There's also some talks about Russians having problems with their soldiers straight up refusing to follow orders and them not being able to punish them for it because of some legal loopholes (it's a special operation, not a war so I guess they can't be too harsh on them?). Interesting, but couldn't really find reliable sources for it so I'll leave it here as a curious tidbit for speculation.
Time is precious. Waste it wisely.
Artesimo
Profile Joined February 2015
Germany572 Posts
June 21 2022 13:25 GMT
#2856
On June 21 2022 20:22 Manit0u wrote:
There's also some talks about Russians having problems with their soldiers straight up refusing to follow orders and them not being able to punish them for it because of some legal loopholes (it's a special operation, not a war so I guess they can't be too harsh on them?). Interesting, but couldn't really find reliable sources for it so I'll leave it here as a curious tidbit for speculation.


As far as I am aware it is not soldiers refusing orders, but rather people being able to refuse getting called up for military service as part of their job being a reservist / possibly some other ties to the military that I don't recall. The institute for the study of war mentioned it in some of their reports I think.

There also have been reports of 'russian' soldiers refusing orders throughout this whole war, but afaik, they do not have legal ground to do so that is recognized by russian law. I put 'russian' in quotes since it is hard to distinguish between russian, LNR, and DNR forces, and very few sources seem to try to do so. The russian and LNR/DNR forces have some overlap with their issues, but some are only very prevalent with one and not the other. Like the russian army not being able to openly conscript people while the DNR/LNR is just pressing people into service. Those DNR/LNR conscript forces are just screwed as they don't have any of the safeguards and protections that russian conscripts have, and some of the russian conscripts still ended up on the frontline...

The LNR/DNR conscription is another grim tragedy of this war, as I see it as russia forcing ukrainians to fight ukrainians.
Manit0u
Profile Blog Joined August 2004
Poland17733 Posts
June 21 2022 13:34 GMT
#2857
On June 21 2022 22:25 Artesimo wrote:
The LNR/DNR conscription is another grim tragedy of this war, as I see it as russia forcing ukrainians to fight ukrainians.


It's more than that. Conscription age in LNR/DNR was raised to 65 and medical requirements lifted, meaning you have a lot of retired and crippled people going to the front lines. Not to mention that they completely lack equipment so they're sent to war without helmets, proper boots and WWI/II era weapons... It's not much different from mass genocide IMO as chances of survival in war for old, crippled people with no training or equipment are pretty much non-existent.
Time is precious. Waste it wisely.
Artesimo
Profile Joined February 2015
Germany572 Posts
June 21 2022 13:46 GMT
#2858
On June 21 2022 22:34 Manit0u wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 21 2022 22:25 Artesimo wrote:
The LNR/DNR conscription is another grim tragedy of this war, as I see it as russia forcing ukrainians to fight ukrainians.


It's more than that. Conscription age in LNR/DNR was raised to 65 and medical requirements lifted, meaning you have a lot of retired and crippled people going to the front lines. Not to mention that they completely lack equipment so they're sent to war without helmets, proper boots and WWI/II era weapons... It's not much different from mass genocide IMO as chances of survival in war for old, crippled people with no training or equipment are pretty much non-existent.


Oh yeah that is another set of sprinkles on the shit cake. There is footage of people getting just grabbed off the street as part of the 'conscription'. The LNR/DNR forces are scraping the absolute bottom of the manpower barrel because they have to make up for russias inability to call for general mobilisation / openly draft people.
Sermokala
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States14107 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-06-21 15:51:03
June 21 2022 15:49 GMT
#2859
On June 21 2022 20:22 Manit0u wrote:
It seems that UA defence in the east (Severodonetsk area) is collapsing as RU is pushing a lot of men there and are gaining ground regardless of horrible losses.
UA seems to be focusing on the counter-offensive in the southeast (Kherson area) but they're not making much progress. There might be an opening in RU defences in the area though as they have to shift a lot of men towards Kherson which will leave other occupied regions vulnerable.

I guess that by the end of this week we might see some changes in the amount of controlled territory for both sides finally.

There's also some talks about Russians having problems with their soldiers straight up refusing to follow orders and them not being able to punish them for it because of some legal loopholes (it's a special operation, not a war so I guess they can't be too harsh on them?). Interesting, but couldn't really find reliable sources for it so I'll leave it here as a curious tidbit for speculation.

The collapse of the defence in the city of severdonestsk isn't the kind of knockout blow it may seem. Even if they manage to take over the now ruble industrial zone Ukraine has dug into the twin city just over the river that Russia will need to grind through even more to make any sort of real gain in the war. When they get to that then tho they will be forced to walk over their supplies or use light trucks because they've damaged the bridges so much that blowing what's left will be easy. You can't pontoon bridge that area either so it's really a stalingrad type situation on that siege.

Rumor is that a Russian fleet is going to go after Odessa with an landing force but I don't know how credible that will be. It sounds like something that will be flooded with harpoon star streak and Neptune missiles.
A wise man will say that he knows nothing. We're gona party like its 2752 Hail Dark Brandon
Ardias
Profile Joined January 2014
Russian Federation618 Posts
June 21 2022 15:54 GMT
#2860
On June 22 2022 00:49 Sermokala wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 21 2022 20:22 Manit0u wrote:
It seems that UA defence in the east (Severodonetsk area) is collapsing as RU is pushing a lot of men there and are gaining ground regardless of horrible losses.
UA seems to be focusing on the counter-offensive in the southeast (Kherson area) but they're not making much progress. There might be an opening in RU defences in the area though as they have to shift a lot of men towards Kherson which will leave other occupied regions vulnerable.

I guess that by the end of this week we might see some changes in the amount of controlled territory for both sides finally.

There's also some talks about Russians having problems with their soldiers straight up refusing to follow orders and them not being able to punish them for it because of some legal loopholes (it's a special operation, not a war so I guess they can't be too harsh on them?). Interesting, but couldn't really find reliable sources for it so I'll leave it here as a curious tidbit for speculation.

The collapse of the defence in the city of severdonestsk isn't the kind of knockout blow it may seem. Even if they manage to take over the now ruble industrial zone Ukraine has dug into the twin city just over the river that Russia will need to grind through even more to make any sort of real gain in the war. When they get to that then tho they will be forced to walk over their supplies or use light trucks because they've damaged the bridges so much that blowing what's left will be easy. You can't pontoon bridge that area either so it's really a stalingrad type situation on that siege.

Rumor is that a Russian fleet is going to go after Odessa with an landing force but I don't know how credible that will be. It sounds like something that will be flooded with harpoon star streak and Neptune missiles.

Russian army doesn't need to cross the river to assault Lysychansk, they are alredy closing in from the south, surrounding Ukrainan forces in Zolotoye in the process.
Mess with the best or die like the rest.
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