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On June 21 2022 20:22 Manit0u wrote: It seems that UA defence in the east (Severodonetsk area) is collapsing as RU is pushing a lot of men there and are gaining ground regardless of horrible losses. UA seems to be focusing on the counter-offensive in the southeast (Kherson area) but they're not making much progress. There might be an opening in RU defences in the area though as they have to shift a lot of men towards Kherson which will leave other occupied regions vulnerable.
I guess that by the end of this week we might see some changes in the amount of controlled territory for both sides finally.
There's also some talks about Russians having problems with their soldiers straight up refusing to follow orders and them not being able to punish them for it because of some legal loopholes (it's a special operation, not a war so I guess they can't be too harsh on them?). Interesting, but couldn't really find reliable sources for it so I'll leave it here as a curious tidbit for speculation.
The collapse of the defence in the city of severdonestsk isn't the kind of knockout blow it may seem. Even if they manage to take over the now ruble industrial zone Ukraine has dug into the twin city just over the river that Russia will need to grind through even more to make any sort of real gain in the war. When they get to that then tho they will be forced to walk over their supplies or use light trucks because they've damaged the bridges so much that blowing what's left will be easy. You can't pontoon bridge that area either so it's really a stalingrad type situation on that siege.
Rumor is that a Russian fleet is going to go after Odessa with an landing force but I don't know how credible that will be. It sounds like something that will be flooded with harpoon star streak and Neptune missiles.
Russian army doesn't need to cross the river to assault Lysychansk, they are alredy closing in from the south, surrounding Ukrainan forces in Zolotoye in the process.
Yes, that's what I meant about eastern front collapsing. Russians still have a ways to go before they get to Lysychansk but Zolotove has to make a hasty retreat or they'll end up in a situation like Mariupol. In any case, this will open up southern flank of Lysychansk and make it much harder (if not impossible) to defend. That's how I see it, unless something unpredictable happens.
On June 21 2022 20:22 Manit0u wrote: It seems that UA defence in the east (Severodonetsk area) is collapsing as RU is pushing a lot of men there and are gaining ground regardless of horrible losses. UA seems to be focusing on the counter-offensive in the southeast (Kherson area) but they're not making much progress. There might be an opening in RU defences in the area though as they have to shift a lot of men towards Kherson which will leave other occupied regions vulnerable.
I guess that by the end of this week we might see some changes in the amount of controlled territory for both sides finally.
There's also some talks about Russians having problems with their soldiers straight up refusing to follow orders and them not being able to punish them for it because of some legal loopholes (it's a special operation, not a war so I guess they can't be too harsh on them?). Interesting, but couldn't really find reliable sources for it so I'll leave it here as a curious tidbit for speculation.
The collapse of the defence in the city of severdonestsk isn't the kind of knockout blow it may seem. Even if they manage to take over the now ruble industrial zone Ukraine has dug into the twin city just over the river that Russia will need to grind through even more to make any sort of real gain in the war. When they get to that then tho they will be forced to walk over their supplies or use light trucks because they've damaged the bridges so much that blowing what's left will be easy. You can't pontoon bridge that area either so it's really a stalingrad type situation on that siege.
Rumor is that a Russian fleet is going to go after Odessa with an landing force but I don't know how credible that will be. It sounds like something that will be flooded with harpoon star streak and Neptune missiles.
Russian army doesn't need to cross the river to assault Lysychansk, they are alredy closing in from the south, surrounding Ukrainan forces in Zolotoye in the process.
They need to cross the river to fix the Ukrainian army in place so they can be surrounded. If they can't get armor across the river and nothing other than a small truck Ukraine can lower the troops sitting in lysychabsk relative to the flanks of it's salient. Even if there is suddenly a breakthrough Ukraine can easily just slowly withdrawal without worry of t-72s just running down militia.
On June 21 2022 20:22 Manit0u wrote: It seems that UA defence in the east (Severodonetsk area) is collapsing as RU is pushing a lot of men there and are gaining ground regardless of horrible losses. UA seems to be focusing on the counter-offensive in the southeast (Kherson area) but they're not making much progress. There might be an opening in RU defences in the area though as they have to shift a lot of men towards Kherson which will leave other occupied regions vulnerable.
I guess that by the end of this week we might see some changes in the amount of controlled territory for both sides finally.
There's also some talks about Russians having problems with their soldiers straight up refusing to follow orders and them not being able to punish them for it because of some legal loopholes (it's a special operation, not a war so I guess they can't be too harsh on them?). Interesting, but couldn't really find reliable sources for it so I'll leave it here as a curious tidbit for speculation.
The collapse of the defence in the city of severdonestsk isn't the kind of knockout blow it may seem. Even if they manage to take over the now ruble industrial zone Ukraine has dug into the twin city just over the river that Russia will need to grind through even more to make any sort of real gain in the war. When they get to that then tho they will be forced to walk over their supplies or use light trucks because they've damaged the bridges so much that blowing what's left will be easy. You can't pontoon bridge that area either so it's really a stalingrad type situation on that siege.
Rumor is that a Russian fleet is going to go after Odessa with an landing force but I don't know how credible that will be. It sounds like something that will be flooded with harpoon star streak and Neptune missiles.
Russian army doesn't need to cross the river to assault Lysychansk, they are alredy closing in from the south, surrounding Ukrainan forces in Zolotoye in the process.
They need to cross the river to fix the Ukrainian army in place so they can be surrounded. If they can't get armor across the river and nothing other than a small truck Ukraine can lower the troops sitting in lysychabsk relative to the flanks of it's salient. Even if there is suddenly a breakthrough Ukraine can easily just slowly withdrawal without worry of t-72s just running down militia.
Since Ukrainians are continue to cling to Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, I doubt that Russians would need to apply additional pressure by river crossing to pin them down. Now Ru Army seem to push Lysychansk and villages around it from the south. If they take Verkhn'okam'yanka (village SW of the Lysychansk), everyone in the city would be cut off.
https://t.me/sashakots/33861 Video from UAV showing the scale of fighting south of the city. Huge smokes directly under the sun is Lysychansk itself. Also village of Mirnaya Dolina (sad irony, it's translated as "Peaceful Valley") is reported taken (there is a video with POWs taken in it), so Zolotoye pocket seem to be almost closed.
On June 22 2022 02:38 Sermokala wrote: youtube.com
Russia's hope is now that the famine starts and the west have to lift sanctions. If anyone was wondering if it was going to happen or not here you go.
The west doesn't have to lift sanctions though. After all, any potential famine will be the result of Russia's actions, not sanctions.
Thing with famine is that it won't make a difference who is it to blame. Last famine on Middle East caused Arab Spring and huge flow of refugees into Europe. And the more destabilized the world becomes, the less attention would be to the war in Ukraine. Plus after the UA steel production is dwindled by losing Mariupol and ore mining facilities in occupied territories, grain and vegetable oils are the main exports for Ukraine, and Ukraine needs money desperately, which Russia would deny by any means possible (Snake island is starting to resemble a proper fortress now, according to satellite images).
Though since all major wheat importers from Russia and Ukraine attended the St. Petersburg Economic Forum during last weekend, they have probably discussed famine situation with Russian government and wheat producers and suppliers and have struck some deals already. Especially Egypt, who was honorary guest of this forum, with Minister of Trade and Industry as a head of its delegation, and Egyptian president tuning in to the forum via video conference. Plus our Ministry of Agriculuture reported that this year's harvest should be the best in last 5 years, and you can also add Crimea, Kherson and Zaporozhie regions to this equasion now. And I don't doubt that Kremlin may cut domestic supply of grain, in order to control the food markets on Middle-East, Africe and SEA (as long as our ports would have the capacity to load this grain, though that's where Kherson and Mariupol may come in handy (though the former is too close to the frontline to comfortly export something for now)).
I guess famine or no famine is still fine to Kremlin, as long as Ukrainian grain stays in Ukraine (though considering the economic situation, they would need this grain to feed their own people, with bread at least).
On June 22 2022 02:38 Sermokala wrote: youtube.com
Russia's hope is now that the famine starts and the west have to lift sanctions. If anyone was wondering if it was going to happen or not here you go.
The west doesn't have to lift sanctions though. After all, any potential famine will be the result of Russia's actions, not sanctions.
Thing with famine is that it won't make a difference who is it to blame. Last famine on Middle East caused Arab Spring and huge flow of refugees into Europe.
And the more destabilized the world becomes, the less attention would be to the war in Ukraine. Plus after the UA steel production is dwindled by losing Mariupol and ore mining facilities in occupied territories, grain and vegetable oils are the main exports for Ukraine, and Ukraine needs money desperately, which Russia would deny by any means possible (Snake island is starting to resemble a proper fortress now, according to satellite images).
Though since all major wheat importers from Russia and Ukraine attended the St. Petersburg Economic Forum during last weekend, they have probably discussed famine situation with Russian government and wheat producers and suppliers and have struck some deals already. Especially Egypt, who was honorary guest of this forum, with Minister of Trade and Industry as a head of its delegation, and Egyptian president tuning in to the forum via video conference. Plus our Ministry of Agriculuture reported that this year's harvest should be the best in last 5 years, and you can also add Crimea, Kherson and Zaporozhie regions to this equasion now. And I don't doubt that Kremlin may cut domestic supply of grain, in order to control the food markets on Middle-East, Africe and SEA (as long as our ports would have the capacity to load this grain, though that's where Kherson and Mariupol may come in handy (though the former is too close to the frontline to comfortly export something for now)).
I guess famine or no famine is still fine to Kremlin, as long as Ukrainian grain stays in Ukraine (though considering the economic situation, they would need this grain to feed their own people, with bread at least).
Famine caused the Arab Spring?! That's ridiculous, as it completely ignores the major political movements which culminated at the same time.
I don't think your Russian sources remind you that nearly all African countries voted against RU in the UN. They have zero interest in contributing to UA, or intervening, but they're not ignorant. They understand that it's RU who is breaking international law, and thereby creating famine in their countries. The diplomatic ramifications will last for decades.
On June 21 2022 20:22 Manit0u wrote: It seems that UA defence in the east (Severodonetsk area) is collapsing as RU is pushing a lot of men there and are gaining ground regardless of horrible losses. UA seems to be focusing on the counter-offensive in the southeast (Kherson area) but they're not making much progress. There might be an opening in RU defences in the area though as they have to shift a lot of men towards Kherson which will leave other occupied regions vulnerable.
I guess that by the end of this week we might see some changes in the amount of controlled territory for both sides finally.
There's also some talks about Russians having problems with their soldiers straight up refusing to follow orders and them not being able to punish them for it because of some legal loopholes (it's a special operation, not a war so I guess they can't be too harsh on them?). Interesting, but couldn't really find reliable sources for it so I'll leave it here as a curious tidbit for speculation.
The collapse of the defence in the city of severdonestsk isn't the kind of knockout blow it may seem. Even if they manage to take over the now ruble industrial zone Ukraine has dug into the twin city just over the river that Russia will need to grind through even more to make any sort of real gain in the war. When they get to that then tho they will be forced to walk over their supplies or use light trucks because they've damaged the bridges so much that blowing what's left will be easy. You can't pontoon bridge that area either so it's really a stalingrad type situation on that siege.
Rumor is that a Russian fleet is going to go after Odessa with an landing force but I don't know how credible that will be. It sounds like something that will be flooded with harpoon star streak and Neptune missiles.
Russian army doesn't need to cross the river to assault Lysychansk, they are alredy closing in from the south, surrounding Ukrainan forces in Zolotoye in the process.
They need to cross the river to fix the Ukrainian army in place so they can be surrounded. If they can't get armor across the river and nothing other than a small truck Ukraine can lower the troops sitting in lysychabsk relative to the flanks of it's salient. Even if there is suddenly a breakthrough Ukraine can easily just slowly withdrawal without worry of t-72s just running down militia.
Since Ukrainians are continue to cling to Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, I doubt that Russians would need to apply additional pressure by river crossing to pin them down. Now Ru Army seem to push Lysychansk and villages around it from the south. If they take Verkhn'okam'yanka (village SW of the Lysychansk), everyone in the city would be cut off.
https://t.me/sashakots/33861 Video from UAV showing the scale of fighting south of the city. Huge smokes directly under the sun is Lysychansk itself. Also village of Mirnaya Dolina (sad irony, it's translated as "Peaceful Valley") is reported taken (there is a video with POWs taken in it), so Zolotoye pocket seem to be almost closed.
They're clinging to those cities because they can still defend it and they won't be overrun if they lose them. If they want to liquidate the lysychansk pocket they'll need to create two circles around it and stretch their very slowly moving lines a lot further. A pullback from sev frees up the troops that they would need to counter encircle. Ukraine wouldn't need to shift their artillery positions at all even just turn everyone around a little.
On June 22 2022 02:38 Sermokala wrote: youtube.com
Russia's hope is now that the famine starts and the west have to lift sanctions. If anyone was wondering if it was going to happen or not here you go.
The west doesn't have to lift sanctions though. After all, any potential famine will be the result of Russia's actions, not sanctions.
Thing with famine is that it won't make a difference who is it to blame. Last famine on Middle East caused Arab Spring and huge flow of refugees into Europe.
And the more destabilized the world becomes, the less attention would be to the war in Ukraine. Plus after the UA steel production is dwindled by losing Mariupol and ore mining facilities in occupied territories, grain and vegetable oils are the main exports for Ukraine, and Ukraine needs money desperately, which Russia would deny by any means possible (Snake island is starting to resemble a proper fortress now, according to satellite images).
Though since all major wheat importers from Russia and Ukraine attended the St. Petersburg Economic Forum during last weekend, they have probably discussed famine situation with Russian government and wheat producers and suppliers and have struck some deals already. Especially Egypt, who was honorary guest of this forum, with Minister of Trade and Industry as a head of its delegation, and Egyptian president tuning in to the forum via video conference. Plus our Ministry of Agriculuture reported that this year's harvest should be the best in last 5 years, and you can also add Crimea, Kherson and Zaporozhie regions to this equasion now. And I don't doubt that Kremlin may cut domestic supply of grain, in order to control the food markets on Middle-East, Africe and SEA (as long as our ports would have the capacity to load this grain, though that's where Kherson and Mariupol may come in handy (though the former is too close to the frontline to comfortly export something for now)).
I guess famine or no famine is still fine to Kremlin, as long as Ukrainian grain stays in Ukraine (though considering the economic situation, they would need this grain to feed their own people, with bread at least).
Famine caused the Arab Spring?! That's ridiculous, as it completely ignores the major political movements which culminated at the same time.
I don't think your Russian sources remind you that nearly all African countries voted against RU in the UN. They have zero interest in contributing to UA, or intervening, but they're not ignorant. They understand that it's RU who is breaking international law, and thereby creating famine in their countries. The diplomatic ramifications will last for decades.
There is a reason why all this political movements erupted simultaniously over the course of couple of winter months in countries renowned for their reliance on food imports. Though if you need quotes, there are some: + Show Spoiler +
A decade ago, the increase in food prices was one of the drivers of protests and upheavals which resulted in the Arab Spring in 2011. High price volatility in global agricultural markets deeply affected highly exposed countries to wheat imports. Several studies have illustrated that there was a causal relationship between rising food prices (by 40% in late 2010), rising food insecurity, and uprisings in Egypt and Syria.
One of the driving forces behind the Arab Spring, experts say, was the high cost of food. Shrinking farmlands, bad weather, and poor water distribution contributed to higher prices and, as a result, anti-government sentiment.
In a year of protests in the Arab world, high food prices helped to make oppression, corruption and poverty under autocratic leaders even more intolerable.
And currently most of those countries ain't not only doing any better, in fact, a lot of them are doing worse than in 2011 (Lybia, Syria, Iraq and Yemen for certain).
And can you give me a break with "Your Russian sources" stuff? If you want foreign sources about what I said, here you go: + Show Spoiler +
CAIRO: Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi has praised Egypt-Russia relations during a speech at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. He said: “Russia is an important partner for Egypt in various fields, and relations between the two countries are distinguished.”
ABU DHABI, 16th June, 2022 (WAM) -- Omar bin Sultan Al Olama, Minister of State for Artificial Intelligence, Digital Economy, and Teleworking Applications, is participating in the 25th session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), running from 15th-18th June, 2022. Addressing the forum, Al Olama highlighted the depth and width of the UAE-Russia relations and the importance of strengthening ties towards more joint cooperation in the economic fields, in a way that achieves the developmental goals of the two countries and ensures a prosperous future for their peoples.
Formal votes in UN (which are vetoed by Russia when it matters anyway) and actual economic deals are quite diffrent things.
On June 22 2022 04:30 Ardias wrote: And I don't doubt that Kremlin may cut domestic supply of grain, in order to control the food markets on Middle-East, Africe and SEA (as long as our ports would have the capacity to load this grain, though that's where Kherson and Mariupol may come in handy (though the former is too close to the frontline to comfortly export something for now)).
I guess famine or no famine is still fine to Kremlin, as long as Ukrainian grain stays in Ukraine (though considering the economic situation, they would need this grain to feed their own people, with bread at least).
Some key points you seem to be missing:
1. Russia is far from controlling the food markets. 2. Ukrainian grain won't stay in Ukraine, they have much fewer mouths to feed now and most of their grain was export product anyway. It'll just take longer to arrive at its destination as they'll have to send it through Poland (since the infrastructure is already there to switch rails and more terminals are being added to increase throughput). So, the grain will be delivered but probably with delays and at a higher cost. 3. Ukraine is being subsidized heavily by EU so their economic situation isn't entirely dire just yet (it's definitely bad, but it's not hopeless).
If you would truly want to destabilize food markets or cause long lasting global famine you'd have to hit Marocco as they're responsible for I think over 70% if not more of global saltpeter production (or whatever it is that's found in bat guano) which is the key ingredient for fertilizers.
I think that this entire situation will also galvanize countries to insulate more in the future by diversifying their imports and increasing domestic production of necessary goods if possible. What this whole debacle shows us is that free global economy is great while it works but if it gets disrupted at some point the ripple effects can be huge.
It's a bit similar to how people are so used to having electricity and Internet nowadays. Imagine if they would be cut off for a longer period of time - younger generations would probably go batshit crazy (I would be kinda immune because I have 3 different hobbies of which none rely on electricity or Internet - but I would be out of work).
On June 21 2022 20:22 Manit0u wrote: It seems that UA defence in the east (Severodonetsk area) is collapsing as RU is pushing a lot of men there and are gaining ground regardless of horrible losses. UA seems to be focusing on the counter-offensive in the southeast (Kherson area) but they're not making much progress. There might be an opening in RU defences in the area though as they have to shift a lot of men towards Kherson which will leave other occupied regions vulnerable.
I guess that by the end of this week we might see some changes in the amount of controlled territory for both sides finally.
There's also some talks about Russians having problems with their soldiers straight up refusing to follow orders and them not being able to punish them for it because of some legal loopholes (it's a special operation, not a war so I guess they can't be too harsh on them?). Interesting, but couldn't really find reliable sources for it so I'll leave it here as a curious tidbit for speculation.
The collapse of the defence in the city of severdonestsk isn't the kind of knockout blow it may seem. Even if they manage to take over the now ruble industrial zone Ukraine has dug into the twin city just over the river that Russia will need to grind through even more to make any sort of real gain in the war. When they get to that then tho they will be forced to walk over their supplies or use light trucks because they've damaged the bridges so much that blowing what's left will be easy. You can't pontoon bridge that area either so it's really a stalingrad type situation on that siege.
Rumor is that a Russian fleet is going to go after Odessa with an landing force but I don't know how credible that will be. It sounds like something that will be flooded with harpoon star streak and Neptune missiles.
Russian army doesn't need to cross the river to assault Lysychansk, they are alredy closing in from the south, surrounding Ukrainan forces in Zolotoye in the process.
They need to cross the river to fix the Ukrainian army in place so they can be surrounded. If they can't get armor across the river and nothing other than a small truck Ukraine can lower the troops sitting in lysychabsk relative to the flanks of it's salient. Even if there is suddenly a breakthrough Ukraine can easily just slowly withdrawal without worry of t-72s just running down militia.
Since Ukrainians are continue to cling to Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, I doubt that Russians would need to apply additional pressure by river crossing to pin them down. Now Ru Army seem to push Lysychansk and villages around it from the south. If they take Verkhn'okam'yanka (village SW of the Lysychansk), everyone in the city would be cut off.
https://t.me/sashakots/33861 Video from UAV showing the scale of fighting south of the city. Huge smokes directly under the sun is Lysychansk itself. Also village of Mirnaya Dolina (sad irony, it's translated as "Peaceful Valley") is reported taken (there is a video with POWs taken in it), so Zolotoye pocket seem to be almost closed.
They're clinging to those cities because they can still defend it and they won't be overrun if they lose them. If they want to liquidate the lysychansk pocket they'll need to create two circles around it and stretch their very slowly moving lines a lot further. A pullback from sev frees up the troops that they would need to counter encircle. Ukraine wouldn't need to shift their artillery positions at all even just turn everyone around a little.
Cities provide most protection against recon and arty/air strikes, yes, but troops inside the cities need food, ammunition, medical supplies etc. to fight. If the road to the Lysychansk is cut - Russian Army don't need to storm the city, they can just wait until either UA forces in Lysychansk starve out and surrender (like "Azov" in Mariupol), or try to make a breakthrough, and would be met by Russian artillery and aviation in the open field (like 36th Marine Brigade tried to do from Azovmash plant in Mariupol as well, some were killed, some fled to Azovstal, most of them surrendered). Plus there is a political gain - if Lysychansk falls, Russia can declare that LNR is fully controlling it's territory (which was one of the main declared reasons for the war).
Also you were talking before about possible landing in Odessa - definetly no. Russian Black Sea fleet doesn't have the capacity to destroy all potential threats to the landing on the Ukrainian shoreline, and even if it did, all Marine brigades are busy fighting on the ground (plus there is not enough of them and landing ships for such ambitious endeavour as opening a whole new front by sea). Most likely these ships continue to reinforce Snake island.
On June 22 2022 04:30 Ardias wrote: And I don't doubt that Kremlin may cut domestic supply of grain, in order to control the food markets on Middle-East, Africe and SEA (as long as our ports would have the capacity to load this grain, though that's where Kherson and Mariupol may come in handy (though the former is too close to the frontline to comfortly export something for now)).
I guess famine or no famine is still fine to Kremlin, as long as Ukrainian grain stays in Ukraine (though considering the economic situation, they would need this grain to feed their own people, with bread at least).
Some key points you seem to be missing:
1. Russia is far from controlling the food markets. 2. Ukrainian grain won't stay in Ukraine, they have much fewer mouths to feed now and most of their grain was export product anyway. It'll just take longer to arrive at its destination as they'll have to send it through Poland (since the infrastructure is already there to switch rails and more terminals are being added to increase throughput). So, the grain will be delivered but probably with delays and at a higher cost. 3. Ukraine is being subsidized heavily by EU so their economic situation isn't entirely dire just yet (it's definitely bad, but it's not hopeless).
If you would truly want to destabilize food markets or cause long lasting global famine you'd have to hit Marocco as they're responsible for I think over 70% if not more of global saltpeter production (or whatever it is that's found in bat guano) which is the key ingredient for fertilizers.
I think that this entire situation will also galvanize countries to insulate more in the future by diversifying their imports and increasing domestic production of necessary goods if possible. What this whole debacle shows us is that free global economy is great while it works but if it gets disrupted at some point the ripple effects can be huge.
It's a bit similar to how people are so used to having electricity and Internet nowadays. Imagine if they would be cut off for a longer period of time - younger generations would probably go batshit crazy (I would be kinda immune because I have 3 different hobbies of which none rely on electricity or Internet - but I would be out of work).
1. Probably didn't phrase it correctly. The "grain market in heavily dependant countries" would probably be more accurate. 2. They also have less food production (territorial loss, fuel constraints, mobilization etc.). And I doubt they will be able to ship all the grain they used to send by sea to Poland and Romania via train (especially considering the different width of railroads). They also used to import different foods, which isn't an option now (little to no money to pay for it). 3. For now - yes. But for how long it will last, and would these money be able to provide everything necessary, especially when winter hits? Maybe it's just common panic, but some Ukrainians expressed concerns that they'll have food shortages in winter due to the desire of the government to export as much grain as possible to pay for the war.
I guess there are different technologies for fertilizer production. Our seems to utilize natural gas (which we have plenty). + Show Spoiler +
Faced with war, the agricultural world discovered its dependence on Russia, with phytosanitary products being the most striking example. Firstly, it's a major producer and exporter. "Russia is the second largest exporter in the world, behind China and ahead of Qatar," said Thierry Pouch, economist at the Chambre d'agriculture en France, a representative body for those in the agricultural industry. Second, and perhaps more structurally, because of Russia's gas production. These fertilizers are, in fact, made from ammonia, obtained by combining nitrogen from the air and hydrogen from natural gas.
Plus some countries don't have enough land to fertilize anyway (especially those in the desert), so food import is their only choice.
I agree with you about diversification of domestic production and less reliance on imports in the future though.
On June 22 2022 04:30 Ardias wrote: And I don't doubt that Kremlin may cut domestic supply of grain, in order to control the food markets on Middle-East, Africe and SEA (as long as our ports would have the capacity to load this grain, though that's where Kherson and Mariupol may come in handy (though the former is too close to the frontline to comfortly export something for now)).
I guess famine or no famine is still fine to Kremlin, as long as Ukrainian grain stays in Ukraine (though considering the economic situation, they would need this grain to feed their own people, with bread at least).
Some key points you seem to be missing:
1. Russia is far from controlling the food markets. 2. Ukrainian grain won't stay in Ukraine, they have much fewer mouths to feed now and most of their grain was export product anyway. It'll just take longer to arrive at its destination as they'll have to send it through Poland (since the infrastructure is already there to switch rails and more terminals are being added to increase throughput). So, the grain will be delivered but probably with delays and at a higher cost. 3. Ukraine is being subsidized heavily by EU so their economic situation isn't entirely dire just yet (it's definitely bad, but it's not hopeless).
If you would truly want to destabilize food markets or cause long lasting global famine you'd have to hit Marocco as they're responsible for I think over 70% if not more of global saltpeter production (or whatever it is that's found in bat guano) which is the key ingredient for fertilizers.
I think that this entire situation will also galvanize countries to insulate more in the future by diversifying their imports and increasing domestic production of necessary goods if possible. What this whole debacle shows us is that free global economy is great while it works but if it gets disrupted at some point the ripple effects can be huge.
It's a bit similar to how people are so used to having electricity and Internet nowadays. Imagine if they would be cut off for a longer period of time - younger generations would probably go batshit crazy (I would be kinda immune because I have 3 different hobbies of which none rely on electricity or Internet - but I would be out of work).
1. Probably didn't phrase it correctly. The "grain market in heavily dependant countries" would probably be more accurate. 2. They also have less food production (territorial loss, fuel constraints, mobilization etc.). And I doubt they will be able to ship all the grain they used to send by sea to Poland and Romania via train (especially considering the different width of railroads). They also used to import different foods, which isn't an option now (little to no money to pay for it). 3. For now - yes. But for how long it will last, and would these money be able to provide everything necessary, especially when winter hits? Maybe it's just common panic, but some Ukrainians expressed concerns that they'll have food shortages in winter due to the desire of the government to export as much grain as possible to pay for the war.
I guess there are different technologies for fertilizer production. Our seems to utilize natural gas (which we have plenty). + Show Spoiler +
Faced with war, the agricultural world discovered its dependence on Russia, with phytosanitary products being the most striking example. Firstly, it's a major producer and exporter. "Russia is the second largest exporter in the world, behind China and ahead of Qatar," said Thierry Pouch, economist at the Chambre d'agriculture en France, a representative body for those in the agricultural industry. Second, and perhaps more structurally, because of Russia's gas production. These fertilizers are, in fact, made from ammonia, obtained by combining nitrogen from the air and hydrogen from natural gas.
Plus some countries don't have enough land to fertilize anyway (especially those in the desert), so food import is their only choice.
I agree with you about diversification of domestic production and less reliance on imports in the future though.
Ukraine reported that if nothing goes horribly wrong they'll be able to deliver 95% of their usual exports so they have enough (Russia didn't take that much of their territory since DNR and LNR were under their control since 2014). I'm not sure they'll struggle with famine themselves, obviously it might be a bit lean but you have to remember that millions of their citizens have fled to other countries so those are mouths you don't have to feed.
As far as different width rail goes it's not a big problem on the UA/PL border because there's already infrastructure in place to switch trains from one to the other, it's been there for years and more terminals are being added.
EU aid for Ukraine won't end. They'll be given preferable interest rates, direct influx of money and most likely shipments of most necessary foods and products.
They already begun setting up infrastructure to make Africa less dependent on other continents (scheduled to kick off next year) and ways to reduce dependence on natural gas and other fossil fuels.
On June 22 2022 02:38 Sermokala wrote: youtube.com
Russia's hope is now that the famine starts and the west have to lift sanctions. If anyone was wondering if it was going to happen or not here you go.
The west doesn't have to lift sanctions though. After all, any potential famine will be the result of Russia's actions, not sanctions.
Thing with famine is that it won't make a difference who is it to blame. Last famine on Middle East caused Arab Spring and huge flow of refugees into Europe.
And the more destabilized the world becomes, the less attention would be to the war in Ukraine. Plus after the UA steel production is dwindled by losing Mariupol and ore mining facilities in occupied territories, grain and vegetable oils are the main exports for Ukraine, and Ukraine needs money desperately, which Russia would deny by any means possible (Snake island is starting to resemble a proper fortress now, according to satellite images).
Though since all major wheat importers from Russia and Ukraine attended the St. Petersburg Economic Forum during last weekend, they have probably discussed famine situation with Russian government and wheat producers and suppliers and have struck some deals already. Especially Egypt, who was honorary guest of this forum, with Minister of Trade and Industry as a head of its delegation, and Egyptian president tuning in to the forum via video conference. Plus our Ministry of Agriculuture reported that this year's harvest should be the best in last 5 years, and you can also add Crimea, Kherson and Zaporozhie regions to this equasion now. And I don't doubt that Kremlin may cut domestic supply of grain, in order to control the food markets on Middle-East, Africe and SEA (as long as our ports would have the capacity to load this grain, though that's where Kherson and Mariupol may come in handy (though the former is too close to the frontline to comfortly export something for now)).
I guess famine or no famine is still fine to Kremlin, as long as Ukrainian grain stays in Ukraine (though considering the economic situation, they would need this grain to feed their own people, with bread at least).
Famine caused the Arab Spring?! That's ridiculous, as it completely ignores the major political movements which culminated at the same time.
I don't think your Russian sources remind you that nearly all African countries voted against RU in the UN. They have zero interest in contributing to UA, or intervening, but they're not ignorant. They understand that it's RU who is breaking international law, and thereby creating famine in their countries. The diplomatic ramifications will last for decades.
There is a reason why all this political movements erupted simultaniously over the course of couple of winter months in countries renowned for their reliance on food imports. Though if you need quotes, there are some: + Show Spoiler +
A decade ago, the increase in food prices was one of the drivers of protests and upheavals which resulted in the Arab Spring in 2011. High price volatility in global agricultural markets deeply affected highly exposed countries to wheat imports. Several studies have illustrated that there was a causal relationship between rising food prices (by 40% in late 2010), rising food insecurity, and uprisings in Egypt and Syria.
One of the driving forces behind the Arab Spring, experts say, was the high cost of food. Shrinking farmlands, bad weather, and poor water distribution contributed to higher prices and, as a result, anti-government sentiment.
In a year of protests in the Arab world, high food prices helped to make oppression, corruption and poverty under autocratic leaders even more intolerable.
And currently most of those countries ain't not only doing any better, in fact, a lot of them are doing worse than in 2011 (Lybia, Syria, Iraq and Yemen for certain).
And can you give me a break with "Your Russian sources" stuff? If you want foreign sources about what I said, here you go: + Show Spoiler +
CAIRO: Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi has praised Egypt-Russia relations during a speech at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. He said: “Russia is an important partner for Egypt in various fields, and relations between the two countries are distinguished.”
ABU DHABI, 16th June, 2022 (WAM) -- Omar bin Sultan Al Olama, Minister of State for Artificial Intelligence, Digital Economy, and Teleworking Applications, is participating in the 25th session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), running from 15th-18th June, 2022. Addressing the forum, Al Olama highlighted the depth and width of the UAE-Russia relations and the importance of strengthening ties towards more joint cooperation in the economic fields, in a way that achieves the developmental goals of the two countries and ensures a prosperous future for their peoples.
Formal votes in UN (which are vetoed by Russia when it matters anyway) and actual economic deals are quite diffrent things.
Yes, there's a reason, but "famine" is not it. It's about framing, more than details. You can tell very different stories with mostly the same facts. So, I don't doubt the facts such as that people from Africa attended the St. Petersburg Economic Summit, but when push came to shove in the General Assembly of the UN (where vetoes don't exist, btw...), the resolution for RU to stop the war was supported by most African countries, only Eritrea voted against..., some "like-minded" countries like Zimbabwe could only bring themselves to abstain, and countries that you now count among your future allies, apparently, like Egypt, supported the resolution.
You need better sources, my man (also because most of your links were not exactly FP heavy hitters, let alone sources). You have to see the forest behind the trees too. Causing famine does not generate willing allies in the countries affected. Quite the opposite.
What he's saying is that putin is banking on people wanting thr famine to end so much that they don't pay attention to who caused the famine in the first place.
Ukraine Russia and Morocco represented the majority of the worlds possible fertilizer components. Lower yields across the board are inevitable.
Maripol lasted a really long time and withstood many stormings by Russia. In this case the defenders can breakout with artillery and ground support by the Ukranian on that side of the pocket. Unless Russia creates the two circles and puts enough troops to man both fronts they will be counter encircled easily.
Has anyone heard any legit updates on Putin's health? That's a wild card(if his health is really as bad as has been reported) . The idea of this war prolonging is actually so brutal its hard to fathom. I know Russia is in the wrong here but at this point if we're starring down years of serious professional military conflict. I dunno what to say. Afghan/Iraq was awful and this has the potential to be worse. Scary.
On June 22 2022 09:21 Sermokala wrote: What he's saying is that putin is banking on people wanting thr famine to end so much that they don't pay attention to who caused the famine in the first place.
Ukraine Russia and Morocco represented the majority of the worlds possible fertilizer components. Lower yields across the board are inevitable.
Maripol lasted a really long time and withstood many stormings by Russia. In this case the defenders can breakout with artillery and ground support by the Ukranian on that side of the pocket. Unless Russia creates the two circles and puts enough troops to man both fronts they will be counter encircled easily.
Yeah, except acting desperately doesn't memory wipe like in MiB.
What I'm opposed to is the view that RU can cause a massive famine and get off without any repercussions. Apparently, all the negative effects will fall on the West. That's just not accurate, countries know when other countries are screwing them over. And institutional memory is long.
I'm especially against giving the complex Arab Spring such a glib explanation (I would even call it Arab Springs, because the movements were so different).
According to the battle lines seen from maps, Russia has made small progress in the Severodonetsk region in the last few days, so maybe they're reaching a point where they'll be able to close the encirclement. As has been discussed in this thread, this outcome was feared by analysts a few weeks ago, but it's not yet definitive.
On the other hand there's good evidence that Russia is relying on outdated equipment to assist the completion of this part of the operation, which would indicate that - successful or not - soon they won't have enough heavy machinery left to continue their offensive war efforts. To me as a layman the analysis in the video below of the T-62 looks relatively comprehensive. A small portion of these tanks was sent out from storage and they're much more vulnerable. I don't have information on where exactly they're being used in battle, so I can't say how exactly Russia is using them. My amateur guess from the articles and comments I've read is that they're likely meant to help hold freshly gained territory, while the more modern tanks are being used for advancement.
EPT
