The most hotly anticipated group stage match in ASL history is upon us with Group C with some of the biggest names in the history of the game, vastly overshadowing the Iron wall brewing in Group D.

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In a repeat of the ABC Mart MSL Ro24 Group D, TBLS without Stork is the headline of the group, along with Ample is the springy, underdog Terran instead of Sea. The marquee group of the tournament thus far, who will we see advance from this group of death?

Bisu Ample

The group kicks off with what I would consider a pretty straight forward matchup. Bisu’s PvT is ironically his worst matchup, but I’m thinking it should still be more than enough to take down Ample. Ample’s heroic run and victory over Soulkey was impressive, but whether he can find lightning in a bottle again is another story. Making the Ro16 is already a fantastic result for Ample, but I just don’t envision his story continuing out of this group.

Bisu wins.

Jaedong Flash

One of the greatest rivalries of all time is back in action. This is a matchup that we have not seen in tournament StarCraft since their last semifinals bout all the way back in ASL Season 2, almost a decade ago, where FlaSh squeezed by Jaedong, 3-2. Both players come into the tournament on hot streaks. Jaedong clinically dismantled his group with clean and precise play, even displaying his trademark JvZ by beating Queen after losing the build order opening, while FlaSh showed unbelievable dominant TvT in his all Terran group. In a Bo1, anything can happen, but I do expect these players to come out with standard openers. I would honestly give the advantage to Jaedong in a straight up Bo1 match while I would favor FlaSh in an extended series with his preparation, especially with a more Terran favored map pool. Pole Star is a Terran favored map though, and we know FlaSh can get a little tricky with his openers to throw his opponent off, but Jaedong’s muta micro has dramatically improved recently and he’s got that killer instinct back.

Jaedong wins.

Bisu vs. Jaedong

Bisu’s PvZ has been fantastic over the past couple of months, as is his trademark. He’s got a fairly impressive PvZ record already at 19-8 for just the month of April, where he’s defeated Soma and Hero in extended Bo7 series. However, he was thrashed by Jaedong at the end of March, 2-5, which could spell trouble for the PvZ maestro. Jaedong’s also struggled this month in ZvP, with a pretty shocking 5-11 record. He’s been practicing hard against Snow, which does excuse some of his record, but results have been difficult to find. The remaining maps also aren’t the best for ZvP, with the 2p maps being very good for Protoss in the matchup, while the rest of the maps are fairly neutral. Pole Star, the first map, is the only real strong ZvP map and can’t be played in this series. That being said… and maybe it’s my bias or maybe it’s just a hunch, I think Jaedong takes this series. He’s got the momentum and to me, his comeback win against Queen just demonstrates that the Tyrant has his swagger back.

Jaedong wins and advances.

Ample vs. Flash

I’d say in a Bo1, Ample may have a trick up his sleeve to pull off this matchup. But in a Bo3, FlaSh just has too many tools and too many builds that Ample has to deal with. With how dominant FlaSh’s TvT already is and how it looked in the Ro24, it’s going to be a severe uphill battle for Ample.

Flash wins.

Bisu vs. Flash

Another intense rivalry and marquee matchup, Bisu vs FlaSh has delivered fireworks over the years. But in their current states, Bisu’s PvT is just nowhere near good enough to compete with FlaSh. Not only is this Bisu’s worst matchup, but FlaSh continues to shape the TvP metagame with different timing pushes and build strategies as of late. On top of that, FlaSh hasn’t played any sponsored games, proleagues, or any matches to really show his opponents just what he’s got planned and prepped.

Flash wins and advances.

Jaedong and Flash Advance To The Ro8!

It’s rare that you get a group of players so closely connected to each other across several seasons of the ASL. Light, Royal, and BarrackS seem unable to avoid landing in groups with each other. Light and Royal were already in a group together this season! They did manage to avoid playing any games against each other, which will leave us with some fresh games despite the re-pairing. BarrackS to out Royal twice in last season’s round of 24. Light to out Barracks twice in ASL 19’s round of 16. So, it seems fate has decided these three fellows are destined to continue the perineal tank slapping contest amongst themselves.
But of course, we can’t leave out Leta. He did not qualify in the past two seasons, and we have yet to see what he offers in TvT. It is noteworthy though, that Leta had a 61% win rate in TvT during the Kespa era. He went 10 of 14 wins to end his career in that matchup and owns a 10 game win streak versus Terran too. Don’t expect Leta to go silently into the night on this one.

Match 1: BarrackS vs Leta
Barracks picked Leta for a reason. He has beating up lots of Terrans and knows he can do it again here. Barracks also took down Soulkey and Mini last season to show his all-around strength. The only danger here is the best of 1 against a player who may try any possible non-standard build. Barracks will still win and advance to the winner’s match.

Match 2: Royal vs Light
Royal went from a top 3 Terran down to the leagues punching bag. He advances from the round of 24 only by defeating even softer punching bags. Light enters the night defeating the exact same players as Royal to advance. Does this mean this season they are equal? Light spent a lot of time trash talking Tulgod. He will need to back up his smack if he wishes to advance like Tulgod did. Light will play in the winner’s match.

Winner’s Match: BarrackS vs Light
This is an exciting rematch from two seasons ago. They say things happen in three. Since Light is on a 2-0 tear against Barracks, we should expect the first game to be his to win too. This will ignite Barracks and he will win the next two games. Continuing the trend of seeded players advancing, Barracks will make it to the round of 8.

Loser’s Match: Leta vs Royal
Can Royal defeat another soft punching bag? No, not against the once prodigy child Leta. This is Leta’s moment to rise to the occasion and take down Royal. Leta is going to dominate Royal and advance from the loser’s match 0-2.

Final Match: Leta vs Light
In the final fight of the night, do Leta have what it takes to eliminate Light? This will be a long and exhausting night for both players. We could be at hour 4 by the time these games start. This must favor Light. Light has been playing consistently over the past decade and is no stranger to these drawn-out Terran groups. Light will overwhelm a tired Leta in 0-2 fashion to dash our hopes of seeing him in the quarterfinals.

BarrackS and Light Advance To The Ro8!

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Writers: FlashFTW, BisuDagger
Graphics: v1
Editors: BLinD-RawR