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On March 18 2020 07:33 Slydie wrote: In my area there are currently 1 infected per 10k citizens and a low number of deaths, most very old.
Am I crazy to believe putting the whole population in quarantine, having risking losing your ID document if you go for a walk without enough of a purpose is completely outrageous?
Sure, I hear about "flattening the curve" and "overloaded systems" but right now, this is just silly and robbing peoples lives for practically no reason.
Most places , it is not nearly as strict!
User was temp banned for this post.
I don't know where you live and I'm no professional so I cannot say for sure, of course, but to me your perspective doesn't sound too unreasonable. At least in Sweden we have taken much lighter measures so far than most countries (no closed schools no curfews etc). The head of the Swedish health council has repeatedly defended this by saying that it is counter productive to use too harsh measures before the disease has spread enough in the population for them to be efficient (unless you can stop the disease all together which we can't either way). Used too early they are simply counter productive in his opinion. I'm in no position to judge this, but I have noticed that Norway and Denmark who took much more far reaching measures much earlier than Sweden and seem to be in an over-all similar position hasn't reaped any benefits from these measures (judging by the statistics).
All in all, I think the appropriate preventive measures are much more complex than to just shut everything down.
How long ago were those measures taken? Because you need to remember lag time from incubation delays when you start seeing the effect of measures. After 2 weeks you would expect to start seeing differences based on measures taken.
It’ll take a while before any kind of national comparison can be actually made. Especially with countries that are under-testing or under-reporting. Hell we also have to factor in travel patterns too, some countries simply have fewer tourist and business traffic than others too.
I’m personally fine with harsh measures but they should be applied in a logical and consistent manner. In the UK we’re lagging behind in most of the measures being employed elsewhere, so I’m not sure exactly how all of them compare.
Working in retail and not having the option to stay off, it’s dying down now but last week was insane and as busy as Christmas. Was busier and I was in closer proximity to people for 9 hour shifts than in any bar or restaurant I’ve been in in this period, which shut for Saint Patrick’s (sensibly) but some are staying shut it seems.
The only real restriction we seem to be doing is closing for the night shifts, which seems to me pointless as we have very few customers in the 10pm-7am slot even now, plus a bit unfair on other workers who need that slot to do their groceries.
Public transport is still running as normal too. But there’s now talk of closing schools over here. Really not complaining but do we want to stop people mixing or not? Where’s the consistency?
I’ve heard bits and pieces about how the rest of you Euros are doing it, does this not seem strange to you?
On March 18 2020 17:06 Harris1st wrote: Thank god Starcraft returns to somewhat normal. At least something to take our minds of this...
Seems like eastern Asia fended the virus off, most probably by tonight China and Korea wont even be in the top 5 as far as activ cases go, by next week they re gonna fall out of the top10 if the current trajectories dont drastically change.
A lot of talk (at least here in Brazil, where worry truly set in last week) has been about "flattening the curve", the second-best option given that assumes a large proportion of the population will get infected eventually and tries to delay infection so health services aren't overrun.
The first-best option would be to isolate the virus completely or at least enough hold the infected numbers down for a year or more until a vaccine exists. What I don't understand is: is China and SK being successful in this? Their daily infection number has gone down drastically.
A couple of friends in Brazil said something along the line of: "we already have so much daily violence, Zika, Dengue, the usual flu, what are you guys making all the fuss about in Europe? No experience with situations of uncertainty lmao"
I mean, if you could get shot on the street randomly, there's a point to be made here. I'm also curious about the statistic to come, what is more dangerous, being black in a white district or getting coronavirus in the USA without insurance.
On March 18 2020 17:06 Harris1st wrote: Thank god Starcraft returns to somewhat normal. At least something to take our minds of this...
Seems like eastern Asia fended the virus off, most probably by tonight China and Korea wont even be in the top 5 as far as activ cases go, by next week they re gonna fall out of the top10 if the current trajectories dont drastically change.
A lot of talk (at least here in Brazil, where worry truly set in last week) has been about "flattening the curve", the second-best option given that assumes a large proportion of the population will get infected eventually and tries to delay infection so health services aren't overrun.
The first-best option would be to isolate the virus completely or at least enough hold the infected numbers down for a year or more until a vaccine exists. What I don't understand is: is China and SK being successful in this? Their daily infection number has gone down drastically.
There's a good chance the virus go back to China and SK from the exterior, they got it when it was still at the start but the more it spread the harder it is to isolate.
On March 18 2020 21:35 Belisarius wrote: The likelihood that you had it in December in the UK is unbelievably low.
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and "gee I felt pretty bad I bet I had corona" is not it.
It is actually not if you read beginning of my post. Still if it was only my case I wouldnt say it was coronavirus, I would put it down to flu. My wife case was different though - literally all her symptoms matched, medicines didnt work and doctors didnt know whats happening.
All the symptoms of covid heavily overlap with any other virus or seasonal flu. Seasonal flu can make you feel utter shit.
Medication wise there's very little that can work for flu apart from paracetamol for a bit of symptom relief. Some places might try oseltamivir but that's rarely used in the UK for people at home because the evidence behind it is poor. Other medications like antibiotics have no impact or role with viruses like the flu or covid, but are given anyway in certain situations in case it may cause a secondary bacterial infection.
It is somewhat common for doctors to say, 'sorry, not quite sure exactly what's making you feel well, but it's probably a virus and you're getting over it anyway'. It doesn't mean it must be some novel virus or the first case of covid in the UK.
On March 18 2020 17:06 Harris1st wrote: Thank god Starcraft returns to somewhat normal. At least something to take our minds of this...
Seems like eastern Asia fended the virus off, most probably by tonight China and Korea wont even be in the top 5 as far as activ cases go, by next week they re gonna fall out of the top10 if the current trajectories dont drastically change.
A lot of talk (at least here in Brazil, where worry truly set in last week) has been about "flattening the curve", the second-best option given that assumes a large proportion of the population will get infected eventually and tries to delay infection so health services aren't overrun.
The first-best option would be to isolate the virus completely or at least enough hold the infected numbers down for a year or more until a vaccine exists. What I don't understand is: is China and SK being successful in this? Their daily infection number has gone down drastically.
A couple of friends in Brazil said something along the line of: "we already have so much daily violence, Zika, Dengue, the usual flu, what are you guys making all the fuss about in Europe? No experience with situations of uncertainty lmao"
I mean, if you could get shot on the street randomly, there's a point to be made here. I'm also curious about the statistic to come, what is more dangerous, being black in a white district or getting coronavirus in the USA without insurance.
Their views on this corona crisis doesn't reflect the my views or the people I have regular contact with. Most people within my social circles are already taking precautions, checking news daily, some have received the option to home-office, etc. People haven't gone full self-isolation, but most of the reasonable steps (hygene campaigns, avoid traveling, canceling events, etc) are being taken and these are above anything I've ever seen.
It could be these friends are just ignorant of the care the situation requires, or it could be they live somewhere other than São Paulo (where corona is concentrated). I mean, here in São Paulo before last wednesday people were very chill about the whole thing. I was actually very surprised how quickly the switch flippled.
That or they were just being coy. We do like to laugh at our own misfortune.
And how is the government handling it? From what I've read the president doesn't really give it a thought (from a German article, can give link on request).
On March 18 2020 17:06 Harris1st wrote: Thank god Starcraft returns to somewhat normal. At least something to take our minds of this...
Seems like eastern Asia fended the virus off, most probably by tonight China and Korea wont even be in the top 5 as far as activ cases go, by next week they re gonna fall out of the top10 if the current trajectories dont drastically change.
A lot of talk (at least here in Brazil, where worry truly set in last week) has been about "flattening the curve", the second-best option given that assumes a large proportion of the population will get infected eventually and tries to delay infection so health services aren't overrun.
The first-best option would be to isolate the virus completely or at least enough hold the infected numbers down for a year or more until a vaccine exists. What I don't understand is: is China and SK being successful in this? Their daily infection number has gone down drastically.
A couple of friends in Brazil said something along the line of: "we already have so much daily violence, Zika, Dengue, the usual flu, what are you guys making all the fuss about in Europe? No experience with situations of uncertainty lmao"
I mean, if you could get shot on the street randomly, there's a point to be made here. I'm also curious about the statistic to come, what is more dangerous, being black in a white district or getting coronavirus in the USA without insurance.
Their views on this corona crisis doesn't reflect the my views or the people I have regular contact with. Most people within my social circles are already taking precautions, checking news daily, some have received the option to home-office, etc. People haven't gone full self-isolation, but most of the reasonable steps (hygene campaigns, avoid traveling, canceling events, etc) are being taken and these are above anything I've ever seen.
It could be these friends are just ignorant of the care the situation requires, or it could be they live somewhere other than São Paulo (where corona is concentrated). I mean, here in São Paulo before last wednesday people were very chill about the whole thing. I was actually very surprised how quickly the switch flippled.
That or they were just being coy. We do like to laugh at our own misfortune.
Yeah, I was a bit unclear here. They're of course rather remote in a city with around 200.000 inhabitants and very little foreign travel. Also the jeito brasileiro plays a big part imo as well
On March 18 2020 21:35 Belisarius wrote: The likelihood that you had it in December in the UK is unbelievably low.
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and "gee I felt pretty bad I bet I had corona" is not it.
It is actually not if you read beginning of my post. Still if it was only my case I wouldnt say it was coronavirus, I would put it down to flu. My wife case was different though - literally all her symptoms matched, medicines didnt work and doctors didnt know whats happening.
All the symptoms of covid heavily overlap with any other virus or seasonal flu. Seasonal flu can make you feel utter shit.
Medication wise there's very little that can work for flu apart from paracetamol for a bit of symptom relief. Some places might try oseltamivir but that's rarely used in the UK for people at home because the evidence behind it is poor. Other medications like antibiotics have no impact or role with viruses like the flu or covid, but are given anyway in certain situations in case it may cause a secondary bacterial infection.
It is somewhat common for doctors to say, 'sorry, not quite sure exactly what's making you feel well, but it's probably a virus and you're getting over it anyway'. It doesn't mean it must be some novel virus or the first case of covid in the UK.
The way I'm understanding it (based on the account of norwegians who have been confirmed) is that very mild flu-like symptoms are more likely to be corona compared to other flu than what strong flu-like symptoms are. (This is part of why containing it is so difficult. )
On March 18 2020 21:35 Belisarius wrote: The likelihood that you had it in December in the UK is unbelievably low.
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and "gee I felt pretty bad I bet I had corona" is not it.
It is actually not if you read beginning of my post. Still if it was only my case I wouldnt say it was coronavirus, I would put it down to flu. My wife case was different though - literally all her symptoms matched, medicines didnt work and doctors didnt know whats happening.
All the symptoms of covid heavily overlap with any other virus or seasonal flu. Seasonal flu can make you feel utter shit.
Medication wise there's very little that can work for flu apart from paracetamol for a bit of symptom relief. Some places might try oseltamivir but that's rarely used in the UK for people at home because the evidence behind it is poor. Other medications like antibiotics have no impact or role with viruses like the flu or covid, but are given anyway in certain situations in case it may cause a secondary bacterial infection.
It is somewhat common for doctors to say, 'sorry, not quite sure exactly what's making you feel well, but it's probably a virus and you're getting over it anyway'. It doesn't mean it must be some novel virus or the first case of covid in the UK.
The way I'm understanding it (based on the account of norwegians who have been confirmed) is that very mild flu-like symptoms are more likely to be corona compared to other flu than what strong flu-like symptoms are. (This is part of why containing it is so difficult. )
It doesn't help that the flu this year is quite severe as well. Last time I got hit as hard by a flu as I was this time around was 15+ years ago.
The symptoms seem very much identical. Only one that "seems" to differentiate them is shortness of breath - but pneumonia is not rare for the flu, nor is a shortness of breath that comes from anxiety (e.g. the anxiety of being sick) rather than physical illness.
On March 18 2020 21:35 Belisarius wrote: The likelihood that you had it in December in the UK is unbelievably low.
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and "gee I felt pretty bad I bet I had corona" is not it.
It is actually not if you read beginning of my post. Still if it was only my case I wouldnt say it was coronavirus, I would put it down to flu. My wife case was different though - literally all her symptoms matched, medicines didnt work and doctors didnt know whats happening.
All the symptoms of covid heavily overlap with any other virus or seasonal flu. Seasonal flu can make you feel utter shit.
Medication wise there's very little that can work for flu apart from paracetamol for a bit of symptom relief. Some places might try oseltamivir but that's rarely used in the UK for people at home because the evidence behind it is poor. Other medications like antibiotics have no impact or role with viruses like the flu or covid, but are given anyway in certain situations in case it may cause a secondary bacterial infection.
It is somewhat common for doctors to say, 'sorry, not quite sure exactly what's making you feel well, but it's probably a virus and you're getting over it anyway'. It doesn't mean it must be some novel virus or the first case of covid in the UK.
The way I'm understanding it (based on the account of norwegians who have been confirmed) is that very mild flu-like symptoms are more likely to be corona compared to other flu than what strong flu-like symptoms are. (This is part of why containing it is so difficult. )
In the majority yes. Overall it's incredibly unlikely for you to be the first cases of coronavirus in the UK so early especially without travel to at risk areas.
On March 18 2020 17:06 Harris1st wrote: Thank god Starcraft returns to somewhat normal. At least something to take our minds of this...
Seems like eastern Asia fended the virus off, most probably by tonight China and Korea wont even be in the top 5 as far as activ cases go, by next week they re gonna fall out of the top10 if the current trajectories dont drastically change.
A lot of talk (at least here in Brazil, where worry truly set in last week) has been about "flattening the curve", the second-best option given that assumes a large proportion of the population will get infected eventually and tries to delay infection so health services aren't overrun.
The first-best option would be to isolate the virus completely or at least enough hold the infected numbers down for a year or more until a vaccine exists. What I don't understand is: is China and SK being successful in this? Their daily infection number has gone down drastically.
A couple of friends in Brazil said something along the line of: "we already have so much daily violence, Zika, Dengue, the usual flu, what are you guys making all the fuss about in Europe? No experience with situations of uncertainty lmao"
I mean, if you could get shot on the street randomly, there's a point to be made here. I'm also curious about the statistic to come, what is more dangerous, being black in a white district or getting coronavirus in the USA without insurance.
There's certainly something about contemporary rich society which are profoundly epidermic to uncertainty and death in general, we just can't accept to live with a virus or a risk in general that can't be captured, organize and planning under normal and predictable pattern. If some of you guys have nothing to do there's a book written by Ulrich Beck "the risk society" about how advance modern society have shift their focus on the management of the risk of the effect of modernity, those risk are global although unevenly repatriated among various classes, risk management create a new kind of "economy" and interrelation between the individuals and society, rather than trying to achieve political or societal goals, socials initiatives are more and more concentrate on risk management. I think he's more preoccupied by environmentalism, terrorism, border control and economic crisis than pandemic but it may be a good read for the times. (I haven't red the book myself, but I may if I find the time).
Latour "Pasteur: War and peaces of microbes" about the interrelation between political and scientific actions and knowledge in the propagation of mass-vactionation by Louis Pasteur in the second half of the 19e century may also be a very interesting read, I have some passage of it for a classes but not all of it. Basically the idea is that Pasteur needed to created the entity "microbes" as a scientific and social object as a way to reorganize the relation between a large number of actors largely unrelated between each other before for example cow farmer, the cow themselves, public health officials and the scientific community, and to make himself and his idea indispensable to the goal of all. There's something similar of how scientific knowledge and projection about the Corona virus manage to rewrite the political and social relation between different actors. For example, states and public health officials are "using" scientific knowledge about the virus to make corporation act with them by shutting down their activity by convincing them that it's in their own interest to do so.
Some PhD student in my university lab team is apparently positive. I wonder how many people are positive in reality, it seems so widespread... I avoided the lab these past few weeks even before the lockdown, so if I'm infected it's probably because of public transportation at work when I couldn't work from home yet, rather than the university lab, but it feels closer and closer.
On March 18 2020 17:06 Harris1st wrote: Thank god Starcraft returns to somewhat normal. At least something to take our minds of this...
Seems like eastern Asia fended the virus off, most probably by tonight China and Korea wont even be in the top 5 as far as activ cases go, by next week they re gonna fall out of the top10 if the current trajectories dont drastically change.
A lot of talk (at least here in Brazil, where worry truly set in last week) has been about "flattening the curve", the second-best option given that assumes a large proportion of the population will get infected eventually and tries to delay infection so health services aren't overrun.
The first-best option would be to isolate the virus completely or at least enough hold the infected numbers down for a year or more until a vaccine exists. What I don't understand is: is China and SK being successful in this? Their daily infection number has gone down drastically.
A couple of friends in Brazil said something along the line of: "we already have so much daily violence, Zika, Dengue, the usual flu, what are you guys making all the fuss about in Europe? No experience with situations of uncertainty lmao"
I mean, if you could get shot on the street randomly, there's a point to be made here. I'm also curious about the statistic to come, what is more dangerous, being black in a white district or getting coronavirus in the USA without insurance.
There's certainly something about contemporary rich society which are profoundly epidermic to uncertainty and death in general, we just can't accept to live with a virus or a risk in general that can't be captured, organize and planning under normal and predictable pattern. If some of you guys have nothing to do there's a book written by Ulrich Beck "the risk society" about how advance modern society have shift their focus on the management of the risk of the effect of modernity, those risk are global although unevenly repatriated among various classes, risk management create a new kind of "economy" and interrelation between the individuals and society, rather than trying to achieve political or societal goals, socials initiatives are more and more concentrate on risk management. I think he's more preoccupied by environmentalism, terrorism, border control and economic crisis than pandemic but it may be a good read for the times. (I haven't red the book myself, but I may if I find the time).
Latour "Pasteur: War and peaces of microbes" about the interrelation between political and scientific actions and knowledge in the propagation of mass-vactionation by Louis Pasteur in the second half of the 19e century may also be a very interesting read, I have some passage of it for a classes but not all of it. Basically the idea is that Pasteur needed to created the entity "microbes" as a scientific and social object as a way to reorganize the relation between a large number of actors largely unrelated between each other before for example cow farmer, the cow themselves, public health officials and the scientific community, and to make himself and his idea indispensable to the goal of all. There's something similar of how scientific knowledge and projection about the Corona virus manage to rewrite the political and social relation between different actors. For example, states and public health officials are "using" scientific knowledge about the virus to make corporation act with them by shutting down their activity by convincing them that it's in their own interest to do so.
Those sound good interesting reads man will have to check them out.
He will say 3 years the day after tomorrow to say it over the day after that. Just wait a few days and you will have any length you wish. He even claimed it was contained for a while. What I mean by that is that he is not a reliable source of information, though a newsworthy one.
I expect 3 months for the biggest surge of trouble to settle, 3 more months for us to be able to match infrastructure to case load, 6 more months to develop a vaccine, and probably 6-12 more months to develop a vaccine to stop the worst of it. At this point I expect evolutions of the coronavirus to be part of the standard disease load for the next century or so.
EPT
