EPTCoronavirus and You - Page 55
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Any and all updates regarding the COVID-19 will need a source provided. Please do your part in helping us to keep this thread maintainable and under control. It is YOUR responsibility to fully read through the sources that you link, and you MUST provide a brief summary explaining what the source is about. Do not expect other people to do the work for you. Conspiracy theories and fear mongering will absolutely not be tolerated in this thread. Expect harsh mod actions if you try to incite fear needlessly. This is not a politics thread! You are allowed to post information regarding politics if it's related to the coronavirus, but do NOT discuss politics in here. Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better. | ||
BigFan
TLADT24920 Posts
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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InFiNitY[pG]
Germany3474 Posts
User was warned for this post. | ||
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Blitzkrieg0
United States13132 Posts
On March 19 2020 04:12 LegalLord wrote: I expect 3 months for the biggest surge of trouble to settle, 3 more months for us to be able to match infrastructure to case load, 6 more months to develop a vaccine, and probably 6-12 more months to develop a vaccine to stop the worst of it. At this point I expect evolutions of the coronavirus to be part of the standard disease load for the next century or so. I have read that the RNA of corona isn't as modular as influenza so we shouldn't see the same mutations. Not my area of expertise to evaluate though. | ||
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TheTenthDoc
United States9561 Posts
On March 19 2020 04:13 BigFan wrote: Am I the only one who's really really curious as to what the actual number of case is? Whether its the US, Canada, China, Italy etc... Unfortunately it's really difficult to estimate real prevalence even for chronic diseases that we know a lot more about. It's even harder for novel infectious diseases. I wouldn't count on the prevalence in fatalities being accurate, even. Maybe someday we'll be able to use admin data to figure it out, but right now priority 1 for the system seems to (rightly in my opinion) be less "how many people carry the virus" and more "how can we minimize harms." The former only helps inform the latter to a certain point...which I think most countries are well past. On March 19 2020 04:14 JimmiC wrote: I don't know if any of you are checking out the Bing map but there has been almost 20k more cases since I first looked at this morning. The climb is steep. https://www.bing.com/covid Because I am a bad world citizen I have been focusing on the NYT map but the climb is steep there and even I know for a fact it lags behind by ~1 day in confirmed cases (NC for example had 63 cases this morning not 42). Apparently more than 1000 new cases announced in New York this morning. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Uldridge
Belgium4957 Posts
Hearing it continuously for every single moment of my waking life is just.. I don't know. Maybe I'm just a psychopath. Maybe it's just still too far removed for me. Maybe it'll never even have any "heavy" direct impact on my personal life. I just don't know anymore. It just feel like I want to let the people in charge -- medical professionals and the government -- do their thing and for the rest be out of their way. But being updated on every single thing every single moment is just not something I'll be able to handle I don't think. Especially if it keeps going for a year straight. Sorry for the rant .. it's just kind of weird right now lol | ||
TheEmulator
28093 Posts
On March 19 2020 05:37 Uldridge wrote: I'm actually kind of done with it. Like, yes it'll be scary, it'll be surreal, it'll be heavy for those who either have it, or who's families have it. It's going to be tough on people practising medicine and all the bureaucracy needing to happing in order to make this thing work on a societal level. But I just can't do all that much other than go to work and try to stay safe. Hearing it continuously for every single moment of my waking life is just.. I don't know. Maybe I'm just a psychopath. Maybe it's just still too far removed for me. Maybe it'll never even have any "heavy" direct impact on my personal life. I just don't know anymore. It just feel like I want to let the people in charge -- medical professionals and the government -- do their thing and for the rest be out of their way. But being updated on every single thing every single moment is just not something I'll be able to handle I don't think. Especially if it keeps going for a year straight. Sorry for the rant .. it's just kind of weird right now lol I don't think there's anything wrong with how you feel right now. In reality there's nothing most of us can do except try to follow the safety protocols, and make the best out of our lives with those measures in place. My mom/brother pretty much can't stop talking about it, and I feel that it negatively affects their mental state in a really bad way. I think people need to find a happy medium of being informed/safe while also taking time to think about something else and realize we're all still alive in the moment. Unfortunately we live in a timeline where panic/anxiety is at its peak, and I can completely understand why some people aren't able to stop thinking about it. | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands21953 Posts
On March 19 2020 05:37 Uldridge wrote: When things are out of your control, as this mostly is (you can take the safety precautions and that's about it) there is, imo, not much point to worry about it constantly. What happens will happen and your better off to just go on with your life.I'm actually kind of done with it. Like, yes it'll be scary, it'll be surreal, it'll be heavy for those who either have it, or who's families have it. It's going to be tough on people practising medicine and all the bureaucracy needing to happing in order to make this thing work on a societal level. But I just can't do all that much other than go to work and try to stay safe. Hearing it continuously for every single moment of my waking life is just.. I don't know. Maybe I'm just a psychopath. Maybe it's just still too far removed for me. Maybe it'll never even have any "heavy" direct impact on my personal life. I just don't know anymore. It just feel like I want to let the people in charge -- medical professionals and the government -- do their thing and for the rest be out of their way. But being updated on every single thing every single moment is just not something I'll be able to handle I don't think. Especially if it keeps going for a year straight. Sorry for the rant .. it's just kind of weird right now lol Ofcourse don't ignore the advise and directions from your government but constantly stressing about it isn't helpful for anyone. | ||
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Mohdoo
United States15725 Posts
On March 19 2020 04:13 BigFan wrote: Am I the only one who's really really curious as to what the actual number of case is? Whether its the US, Canada, China, Italy etc... After we learned 80% of transmission comes from people with no symptoms, I've just kinda assumed its a huge amount. | ||
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Elroi
Sweden5599 Posts
On another note: what is really happening in Italy? How can this be so much worse there than in other places and how is it possible that the number of deaths and critical patients compared to the over all number of infected are so much higher there? I get that the hospital's are overwhelmed, but there must be other reasons? | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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SC-Shield
Bulgaria832 Posts
Link: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/18/japanese-flu-drug-clearly-effective-in-treating-coronavirus-says-china On March 19 2020 06:44 Elroi wrote: Do you have a source for that number? I have heard that people who transmit the disease without symptoms are outliers. On another note: what is really happening in Italy? How can this be so much worse there than in other places and how is it possible that the number of deaths and critical patients compared to the over all number of infected are so much higher there? I get that the hospital's are overwhelmed, but there must be other reasons? There are probably multiple factors. For example, Italians are said to be a social nation, so social distance was probably ignored first. Read about the Mediterranean diet and you'll see why they spend much time together. Also, I guess another factor is more tourism? That, and they have a lot of old people (nice diet, long life). I still don't understand why Japan isn't exploding right now. | ||
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InFiNitY[pG]
Germany3474 Posts
On March 19 2020 06:44 Elroi wrote: Do you have a source for that number? I have heard that people who transmit the disease without symptoms are outliers. On another note: what is really happening in Italy? How can this be so much worse there than in other places and how is it possible that the number of deaths and critical patients compared to the over all number of infected are so much higher there? I get that the hospital's are overwhelmed, but there must be other reasons? I believe it's a combination of two factors mostly 1. They were not prepared. Lombardy got overrun by sick people. They severly underestimated the impact of the virus. 2. critical mass: Once the health system of a country crumbles the death tolls rises exponentially. If a country as X icu beds/ventilators but 5 times X patients, 4 X of those are likely going to die. Everywhere else the curve is still below the red line, not so in Italy. If that happens anywhere else, those countries will catch up to Italy's. | ||
Liquid`Drone
Norway28711 Posts
(Going by worldometer numbers; 10 days ago, on march 8th, Italy had 6k infected, 366 deaths. France right now has 9k infected, 266 deaths. Spain almost 15k infected, 638 deaths. The UK is currently at 2600 cases and 104 deaths - Italy was at 3k cases and 107 deaths on march 4th, two weeks ago. % differences in mortality rate can be explained mostly by difference in amount of testing (how many low symptom or asymptomatic cases that are tested, in particular) and whether health care services are overrun or not, but it's pretty clear that many other countries are heading straight towards Italy numbers. This is exactly why it is so depressing to see so many countries with populations that are really slow to respond to social distancing mandates - these countries are overwhelmingly likely to be where Italy is today, with several hundred daily deaths, in a couple weeks time. ) If you go by a 40% infection rate and 1% mortality rate and you spread the disease out over an entire year (just for simplicity's sake), a country with Italy's population will be looking at something like 700 new deaths every single day for that year. Real mortality rates are certainly up in the air, how many will become infected is not a foregone conclusion either, but there are many countries that are headed straight for worse numbers than what we are seeing in Italy right now. | ||
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SC-Shield
Bulgaria832 Posts
On March 19 2020 07:01 Liquid`Drone wrote: I believe the main reason is that they are 10 days-2 weeks ahead of many other countries and that you might see similar daily death counts in countries like spain france uk, where the response wasn't all that swift and where people took their fair time adhering to social distancing commands in the next two weeks. (Going by worldometer numbers; 10 days ago, on march 8th, Italy had 6k infected, 366 deaths. France right now has 9k infected, 266 deaths. Spain almost 15k infected, 638 deaths. The UK is currently at 2600 cases and 104 deaths - Italy was at 3k cases and 107 deaths on march 4th, two weeks ago. % differences in mortality rate can be explained mostly by difference in amount of testing (how many low symptom or asymptomatic cases that are tested, in particular) and whether health care services are overrun or not, but it's pretty clear that many other countries are heading straight towards Italy numbers. This is exactly why it is so depressing to see so many countries with populations that are really slow to respond to social distancing mandates - these countries are overwhelmingly likely to be where Italy is today, with several hundred daily deaths, in a couple weeks time. ) If you go by a 40% infection rate and 1% mortality rate and you spread the disease out over an entire year (just for simplicity's sake), a country with Italy's population will be looking at something like 700 new deaths every single day for that year. Real mortality rates are certainly up in the air, how many will become infected is not a foregone conclusion either, but there are many countries that are headed straight for worse numbers than what we are seeing in Italy right now. I don't know why you guys go for estimates when every estimate you have is countered by the current situation in China and South Korea. Mortality rate is really low right now and a lot of people have recovered in China, too. More than Italy for sure. Some guy posted a map from Bing, so just check it out. | ||
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farvacola
United States18839 Posts
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SC-Shield
Bulgaria832 Posts
On March 19 2020 07:06 farvacola wrote: Those estimates are not "countered" by what has occurred in countries that have had dramatically different responses. Those stories of relative success actually further support the more negative numbers given the obvious points of contrast and the still floating overall number of infected. Of course it's countered. Italy is just an exception not the rule. You can't get numbers from there and say how some country will be the same. You're comparing apple to oranges. In other words, you completely ignore differences between countries. E.g. percentage of old people, population, tourism, maybe weather (we'll see if it's a factor), social culture (close contact), etc. | ||
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Liquid`Drone
Norway28711 Posts
On March 19 2020 07:03 SC-Shield wrote: I don't know why you guys go for estimates when every estimate you have is countered by the current situation in China and South Korea. Mortality rate is really low right now and a lot of people have recovered in China, too. More than Italy for sure. Some guy posted a map from Bing, so just check it out. If you go by 0.5% mortality rate instead of 1% you can say 350 deaths per day for a country like Italy if that makes you more comfortable. I'm not saying 'these numbers are how it is going to be', in fact I added a qualifier at the end of my post stating that 'real mortality rates are certainly up in the air right now' and 'how many will be infected is not a foregone conclusion either'. But if people expect countries that have been following Italy's trajectory so far, that then failed to enact proper counter-measures despite having two weeks warning, will suddenly deviate from Italy's course over the past 4 days for whatever magical reason, they are very likely to be in for a rude awakening in two weeks time. Would love to be wrong on this, but can't really see why I would be. | ||
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InFiNitY[pG]
Germany3474 Posts
On March 19 2020 07:11 SC-Shield wrote: Of course it's countered. Italy is just an exception not the rule. You can't get numbers from there and say how some country will be the same. You're comparing apple to oranges. In other words, you completely ignore differences between countries. E.g. percentage of old people, population, tourism, maybe weather (we'll see if it's a factor), social culture (close contact), etc. We are not the ones ignoring culture, you are. Asian countries are way way better prepared to deal with situations like these because of social and cultures rules as well as previous experiences with viral infections. In fact othern than SK and China not a single country with high infection rates has managed any comparable level of containment. | ||
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