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On March 19 2020 07:03 SC-Shield wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2020 07:01 Liquid`Drone wrote:
I believe the main reason is that they are 10 days-2 weeks ahead of many other countries and that you might see similar daily death counts in countries like spain france uk, where the response wasn't all that swift and where people took their fair time adhering to social distancing commands in the next two weeks.
(Going by worldometer numbers; 10 days ago, on march 8th, Italy had 6k infected, 366 deaths. France right now has 9k infected, 266 deaths. Spain almost 15k infected, 638 deaths. The UK is currently at 2600 cases and 104 deaths - Italy was at 3k cases and 107 deaths on march 4th, two weeks ago. % differences in mortality rate can be explained mostly by difference in amount of testing (how many low symptom or asymptomatic cases that are tested, in particular) and whether health care services are overrun or not, but it's pretty clear that many other countries are heading straight towards Italy numbers. This is exactly why it is so depressing to see so many countries with populations that are really slow to respond to social distancing mandates - these countries are overwhelmingly likely to be where Italy is today, with several hundred daily deaths, in a couple weeks time. )
If you go by a 40% infection rate and 1% mortality rate and you spread the disease out over an entire year (just for simplicity's sake), a country with Italy's population will be looking at something like 700 new deaths every single day for that year. Real mortality rates are certainly up in the air, how many will become infected is not a foregone conclusion either, but there are many countries that are headed straight for worse numbers than what we are seeing in Italy right now. I don't know why you guys go for estimates when every estimate you have is countered by the current situation in China and South Korea. Mortality rate is really low right now and a lot of people have recovered in China, too. More than Italy for sure. Some guy posted a map from Bing, so just check it out. China and South Korea clamped down hard and fast (China took a bit longer but they were the first and didn't know what they were dealing with yet.).
Italy was to slow.
That is why the numbers looks so different and people are prediction France and Spain to follow Italy rather then South Korea because these countries seem to have waited to long before acting, like Italy.
You can't compare a successful containment situation with one that got out of control and expect the result to be the same.
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GOP senator Johnson seems to be under the impression it is likely we'll reach full infection by the time this is over in the US.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/gop-senator-no-more-than-3-4-of-our-population-may-die.html
“I’m not denying what a nasty disease COVID-19 can be, and how it’s obviously devastating to somewhere between 1 and 3.4 percent of the population,” he said.
“But that means 97 to 99 percent will get through this and develop immunities and will be able to move beyond this. But we don’t shut down our economy because tens of thousands of people die on the highways. It’s a risk we accept so we can move about. We don’t shut down our economies because tens of thousands of people die from the common flu …
“… getting coronavirus is not a death sentence except for maybe no more than 3.4 percent of our population (and) I think probably far less.”
What a rotten, awful human being. Why shut down the economy when only 11 million might die?
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First member of congress has tested positive with it. GOP from Florida. Here's their statement on it.
Personally, this doesn't hold a candle to Cornyn's comments. Which are probably actively harmful rather than merely passively sociopathic.
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I feel a bit depressed seeing Italy's number,that's horrible.It shouldn't be like this if measure were taken earlier.
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What happened to Italy that was different than other places
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On March 19 2020 11:40 Emnjay808 wrote:
What happened to Italy that was different than other places
They responded better than the US is right now. Their big thing was Italians were like "lol why isolate when we can all go out drinking instead?"
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I finished writing a risk assessment for this bloody thing.
I actually came to the same conclusion as the UK with the herd immunity plans. We're going through absolutely overkill measures right now.
19.6% of the cases are severe to critical. Most of them over 60 years old.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971220301235#bib0115
Lethality goes from 5.9%(Early Wuhan outbreak) to 6.1% (Iran), but is actually 0.7% (overall China post-Wuhan) with proper treatment. See WHO expedition source and sitreps.
It can be assumed there's a lot of healthy untested folk running around that will eventually be immune.
The reinfection thing is BS, they already tested monkeys for this.
https://www.livescience.com/monkeys-cannot-get-reinfected-with-coronavirus-study.html
If it's over 60 years olds at risk, you want the younger ones to become immune. Just adopt safety measures for the risk group, relatives and healthcare workers in contact with them.
When most are immune, spreaders from the outside can't start a new pandemic, and the risk group is relatively safe from community spread. Like this, once it shows up again we can all go back into lockdown or what?
Not just that, I probably had it myself. And I woke up a few nights in a row with slight fever and a bit of shortness of breath. And the flu I had a bit earlier hit like a truck in comparison.
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On March 19 2020 12:18 Vivax wrote:I finished writing a risk assessment for this bloody thing. I actually came to the same conclusion as the UK with the herd immunity plans. We're going through absolutely overkill measures right now. 19.6% of the cases are severe to critical. Most of them over 60 years old. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971220301235#bib0115Lethality goes from 5.9%(Early Wuhan outbreak) to 6.1% (Iran), but is actually 0.7% (overall China post-Wuhan) with proper treatment. See WHO expedition source and sitreps. It can be assumed there's a lot of healthy untested folk running around that will eventually be immune. The reinfection thing is BS, they already tested monkeys for this. https://www.livescience.com/monkeys-cannot-get-reinfected-with-coronavirus-study.htmlIf it's over 60 years olds at risk, you want the younger ones to become immune. Just adopt safety measures for the risk group, relatives and healthcare workers in contact with them. When most are immune, spreaders from the outside can't start a new pandemic, and the risk group is relatively safe from community spread. Like this, once it shows up again we can all go back into lockdown or what? Not just that, I probably had it myself. And I woke up a few nights in a row with slight fever and a bit of shortness of breath. And the flu I had a bit earlier hit like a truck in comparison.
You can't get people immune quickly and safely without a vaccine. Even if you could max out ICUs constantly, at a 6% chance of needing an ICU bed(based on death rate in Wuhan/Iran) and one week stay time on average it would take 173 weeks in the US to innoculate everybody. That's with every single ICU bed assigned to this, and not to other things like car crashes or heart attacks or whatever else there is(with corresponding medical staff doing only that). It's just a ridiculous idea that doesn't work once you run the numbers.
Even if you could do that, I personally don't like consigning 0.7% of the population to death and a significant portion more to having permanent respiratory damage. Much better to just suck it up and live with restrictions until a vaccine is invented.
If you can contain it as well as Korea or Taiwan, life goes on. But if it becomes a problem like it is in most countries, there's really not another rational choice IMO.
At those numbers you're basically guaranteed to know at least a couple people who passed away from it, and hear about dozens more.
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I want capitalism to die, but for those that wish to preserve it, I don't think Vivax is entirely out of pocket on this one.
What if we just locked down the people at risk and gave them empty residences to quarantine in (or for cohabitants to temp relocate to) if they lived with people outside of the at risk group?
Couldn't you keep the economy chugging while minimizing exposure for those most at risk? Maybe I'm missing something obvious?
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The more I read the more it looks like my goal should be to get infected and then immediately isolate. As time goes on, medical facilities are going to become less and less effective. No real issues in the US so far. If I got badly sick there would be plenty of resources for me. Maybe not in a month or so.
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United Kingdom13775 Posts
On March 19 2020 13:48 Mohdoo wrote:
The more I read the more it looks like my goal should be to get infected and then immediately isolate. As time goes on, medical facilities are going to become less and less effective. No real issues in the US so far. If I got badly sick there would be plenty of resources for me. Maybe not in a month or so.
Maybe in a month, the facilities aren't going to be up to the task. But three months from now, when the first wave is starting to settle and more money has been pumped into health infrastructure (respirators, hospital beds, etc), we will be in a much better state to handle further spread of the virus.
I wouldn't focus on getting sick, personally. Pneumonia is not much fun, and with a disease like this there's always the chance of dangerous complications. But if you do get sick, as many people inevitably will, it is true that it'll help slow the spread of the disease in the longer term. It's just that all of these measures take time, and any sort of "let it spread and whoever dies, dies" approach is going to lead to disaster.
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On March 19 2020 13:48 Mohdoo wrote:
The more I read the more it looks like my goal should be to get infected and then immediately isolate. As time goes on, medical facilities are going to become less and less effective. No real issues in the US so far. If I got badly sick there would be plenty of resources for me. Maybe not in a month or so.
I'd probably almost be over it (and not worrying about killing my parents when I drop off supplies) by now had I just done it when I thought about it.
What's a little glass lung in exchange for some peace of mind.
EDIT: Been symptomatic for a few days now but won't have access to a test based on the calls I've made so I guess there's that.
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It’s amazing that Florida has not shut down its beaches, as dumb spring break kids pack them and party. The state has a very sizable elderly population.
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On March 19 2020 13:46 GreenHorizons wrote:
I want capitalism to die, but for those that wish to preserve it, I don't think Vivax is entirely out of pocket on this one.
meh, people should learn what it takes to strengthen their immune system. then they need to keep their immune systems strong. There is no government activity that can replace the individual choices it takes to build and maintain a strong immune system.
On March 19 2020 14:31 Danglars wrote:
It’s amazing that Florida has not shut down its beaches, as dumb spring break kids pack them and party. The state has a very sizable elderly population.
my paternal grandfather is a canadian snowbird. He is in Florida and was scheduled to return to Canada April 30. When the Prime Minister of Canada said Canadians have to return to Canada he elected to stay in Florida. LOL.
I will concede that he is in supreme physical condition for a 72 year old.
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On March 19 2020 14:31 Danglars wrote:
It’s amazing that Florida has not shut down its beaches, as dumb spring break kids pack them and party. The state has a very sizable elderly population.
Those kids are from all over right? Good look with thousands traveling through the country, not feeling symptoms themselves, but infecting people around them.
People in Germany also still have problems acepting the situation. If 50% of people don't care, all the measures are useless. There is now one suspected case in my village of 2000 and the reaction is spreading of wild rumors and social ousting. This won't bring out the best in people...
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On March 19 2020 12:18 Vivax wrote:I finished writing a risk assessment for this bloody thing. I actually came to the same conclusion as the UK with the herd immunity plans. We're going through absolutely overkill measures right now. 19.6% of the cases are severe to critical. Most of them over 60 years old. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971220301235#bib0115Lethality goes from 5.9%(Early Wuhan outbreak) to 6.1% (Iran), but is actually 0.7% (overall China post-Wuhan) with proper treatment. See WHO expedition source and sitreps. It can be assumed there's a lot of healthy untested folk running around that will eventually be immune. The reinfection thing is BS, they already tested monkeys for this. https://www.livescience.com/monkeys-cannot-get-reinfected-with-coronavirus-study.htmlIf it's over 60 years olds at risk, you want the younger ones to become immune. Just adopt safety measures for the risk group, relatives and healthcare workers in contact with them. When most are immune, spreaders from the outside can't start a new pandemic, and the risk group is relatively safe from community spread. Like this, once it shows up again we can all go back into lockdown or what? Not just that, I probably had it myself. And I woke up a few nights in a row with slight fever and a bit of shortness of breath. And the flu I had a bit earlier hit like a truck in comparison.
Sure. On the other hand, a Dutch epidemiologist poked some giant holes in that plan tho. Source is Dutch, but essentially it boils down to:
1. Herd immunity will take between 60 and 80% of the population being immune. Infecting that portion of the population will take between 3-5 years. During that time, people at risk have to live completely isolated from everybody else. This is not possible.
2. In most Western countries 50% of the population is over 50. So to achieve the numbers required for herd immunity, a significant portion of at-risk people also need to be exposed even if you manage to expose 100% of the rest.
3. Herd immunity requires almost willfully exposing "low risk" people. However, Covid-19 is quite a serious disease even for these people and can lead to serious complications and even death even among young healthy patients. Is it ethical to tell these people to go forth and get a potentially serious disease?
Source (Dutch): https://www.volkskrant.nl/cs-bcf70d2e
I think lockdown is the right path forward. Try to weather the time until a vaccine is available by getting as few people as possible infected. Keep the curve as flat as possible and hope scientists figure out a vaccine sooner rather than later. If it's later we end up eventually heading for that 60-80% number in any case. It's not as if lockdown is containing it, it's just slowing down the spread.
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On March 19 2020 11:40 Emnjay808 wrote:
What happened to Italy that was different than other places
I think that one of the main issues - besides going out and drinking in large groups - is the age distribution. Italy has one of the oldest populations in the world (second only to Japan or sth like that). And as we know the older you get, the higher the chances are to die from some virus.
I'm really unhappy with the situation in germany right now. Theres no guidance from our political parties, no plans whatsoever. Every federal state is doing it's own thing and Merkel (as always) seems to have no idea what to do.
In my opinion we need a shutdown for two weeks or sth like that. You're only allowed to go out for work and buying neccessary stuff. No more dining in restaurants, walking in parks (unless you have a dog) and hanging around the city for no reason.
And then we'll see from there.
Just telling people to keep distance won't do anything.
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On March 19 2020 16:55 JoeCool wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2020 11:40 Emnjay808 wrote:
What happened to Italy that was different than other places I think that one of the main issues - besides going out and drinking in large groups - is the age distribution. Italy has one of the oldest populations in the world (second only to Japan or sth like that). And as we know the older you get, the higher the chances are to die from some virus. I'm really unhappy with the situation in germany right now. Theres no guidance from our political parties, no plans whatsoever. Every federal state is doing it's own thing and Merkel (as always) seems to have no idea what to do. In my opinion we need a shutdown for two weeks or sth like that. You're only allowed to go out for work and buying neccessary stuff. No more dining in restaurants, walking in parks (unless you have a dog) and hanging around the city for no reason. And then we'll see from there. Just telling people to keep distance won't do anything.
I mean, I hear this repeated over and over, how Italy's population is so much older, and that's why it's bad, while it's tehnically true, it's quite misleading.
It's not 2nd / world, it's actually 5th, behind countries such as Japan, and your own, Germany, countries with uncomparably lower deathrates.
But ok, 5th/ world is still very high, according to wikipedia their median age is 45.5, which is high, but for context, Germany is 47.1 and most of the EU has a median age over 40, so it's not like the difference is massive. The EU average is 43.1
While the age of the Italian population is a factor, it's not an important one if we're looking at why is it so much worse there than in the rest of EU. Btw the 2nd worst case in EU is currently Spain as far as i can see (median age 42.7)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age
And btw yes, median age is the more relevant stat, not life-expectancy (in which Italy happens to be 5th as well).
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On March 18 2020 22:12 deacon.frost wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2020 21:15 Razyda wrote:
Hmm is it just me who thinks that numbers are way, way off??
Virus was identified in December - given similarity to common flu I dont really believe it was identified on first case and in 1 day. China start closing towns in January - Wuhan 23 January.
First 2 cases in UK are reported January 31st - March 18 (around 7 weeks later) there is 1950 cases confirmed. This 7 weeks is roughly about the same time since virus appeared till closing Wuhan (again due to similarity to common flu I would guess it is way more than 7 weeks). Given the speed it spreads and fact that this are actually confirmed cases (properly tested) one would guess that actual numbers are likely two zeros higher.
Now the reason I believe so: I am pretty sure i had an actual coronavirus as early as 1 January and my wife 2 weeks later.
All the symptoms matched and while for me it was like really bad flu, my wife was 3 weeks barely able to move with doctors changing antibiotics and openly admitting they dont know what is happening.
Now if we were able to get infected in the UK (no abroad trips) in December (5 days incubation period) then you do the math.
My point is that there is no reason to panic (taking precautions =/= panic) as a lot of people most likely already were sick without even realizing it It seems to me you underestimate how fast the growth of infected is. Also there's a good chance your first two infected were serious cases, not just "meh, it's nothing, i just got cold". Edit> IIRC the amount of infected doubles every 6 days, so let's say it was 20 when you caught the first two, 40(2), 80(3), 160(4), 360(5), 720(6), 1440(7) And that's me giving it doubling rate every 7 days and giving you that those 2 were 10 % of the population, in case the population was bigger(and there's a good chacne it was)... 
I clearly stated that I think that actual number of infected need two zeros at the end to reflect correct numbers. Leaving the part if we had Coronavirus, as this seems to irk people, my point was that there is month (more likely 6 to 8 weeks) misssing from the timeline of virus spread and given the speed with which it spreads, the number of cases is actually way higher.
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EPT
