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Czech Republic12129 Posts
On March 19 2020 18:38 Razyda wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2020 22:12 deacon.frost wrote:On March 18 2020 21:15 Razyda wrote:
Hmm is it just me who thinks that numbers are way, way off??
Virus was identified in December - given similarity to common flu I dont really believe it was identified on first case and in 1 day. China start closing towns in January - Wuhan 23 January.
First 2 cases in UK are reported January 31st - March 18 (around 7 weeks later) there is 1950 cases confirmed. This 7 weeks is roughly about the same time since virus appeared till closing Wuhan (again due to similarity to common flu I would guess it is way more than 7 weeks). Given the speed it spreads and fact that this are actually confirmed cases (properly tested) one would guess that actual numbers are likely two zeros higher.
Now the reason I believe so: I am pretty sure i had an actual coronavirus as early as 1 January and my wife 2 weeks later.
All the symptoms matched and while for me it was like really bad flu, my wife was 3 weeks barely able to move with doctors changing antibiotics and openly admitting they dont know what is happening.
Now if we were able to get infected in the UK (no abroad trips) in December (5 days incubation period) then you do the math.
My point is that there is no reason to panic (taking precautions =/= panic) as a lot of people most likely already were sick without even realizing it It seems to me you underestimate how fast the growth of infected is. Also there's a good chance your first two infected were serious cases, not just "meh, it's nothing, i just got cold". Edit> IIRC the amount of infected doubles every 6 days, so let's say it was 20 when you caught the first two, 40(2), 80(3), 160(4), 360(5), 720(6), 1440(7) And that's me giving it doubling rate every 7 days and giving you that those 2 were 10 % of the population, in case the population was bigger(and there's a good chacne it was)...  I clearly stated that I think that actual number of infected need two zeros at the end to reflect correct numbers. Leaving the part if we had Coronavirus, as this seems to irk people, my point was that there is month (more likely 6 to 8 weeks) misssing from the timeline of virus spread and given the speed with which it spreads, the number of cases is actually way higher.
My point was/is that the number of detected is quite normal and isn't way way off.
1) for many it has mild symptoms so people will ignore it(maybe better say not report it)
2) with the first detection people will start to become more careful about what symptoms they have thus the detection rate goes up naturally
(other than the fact unless you start testin everyone you cannot get precise numbers)
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On March 19 2020 07:01 Liquid`Drone wrote:
I believe the main reason is that they are 10 days-2 weeks ahead of many other countries and that you might see similar daily death counts in countries like spain france uk, where the response wasn't all that swift and where people took their fair time adhering to social distancing commands in the next two weeks.
(Going by worldometer numbers; 10 days ago, on march 8th, Italy had 6k infected, 366 deaths. France right now has 9k infected, 266 deaths. Spain almost 15k infected, 638 deaths. The UK is currently at 2600 cases and 104 deaths - Italy was at 3k cases and 107 deaths on march 4th, two weeks ago. % differences in mortality rate can be explained mostly by difference in amount of testing (how many low symptom or asymptomatic cases that are tested, in particular) and whether health care services are overrun or not, but it's pretty clear that many other countries are heading straight towards Italy numbers. This is exactly why it is so depressing to see so many countries with populations that are really slow to respond to social distancing mandates - these countries are overwhelmingly likely to be where Italy is today, with several hundred daily deaths, in a couple weeks time. )
If you go by a 40% infection rate and 1% mortality rate and you spread the disease out over an entire year (just for simplicity's sake), a country with Italy's population will be looking at something like 700 new deaths every single day for that year. Real mortality rates are certainly up in the air, how many will become infected is not a foregone conclusion either, but there are many countries that are headed straight for worse numbers than what we are seeing in Italy right now.
There is a huge discrepancy between Italy and the other countries you mention in the number of deaths and the number of critical cases compared to the total number of cases. As you say, that could be because other countries are testing much more than Italy. But that must in turn mean that the disease has infected an astounding number of people in Italy since they literally have 1000 times more patients in critical condition than Germany right now. It feels as if there must be some underlying factors at play.
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On March 19 2020 19:03 Elroi wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2020 07:01 Liquid`Drone wrote:
I believe the main reason is that they are 10 days-2 weeks ahead of many other countries and that you might see similar daily death counts in countries like spain france uk, where the response wasn't all that swift and where people took their fair time adhering to social distancing commands in the next two weeks.
(Going by worldometer numbers; 10 days ago, on march 8th, Italy had 6k infected, 366 deaths. France right now has 9k infected, 266 deaths. Spain almost 15k infected, 638 deaths. The UK is currently at 2600 cases and 104 deaths - Italy was at 3k cases and 107 deaths on march 4th, two weeks ago. % differences in mortality rate can be explained mostly by difference in amount of testing (how many low symptom or asymptomatic cases that are tested, in particular) and whether health care services are overrun or not, but it's pretty clear that many other countries are heading straight towards Italy numbers. This is exactly why it is so depressing to see so many countries with populations that are really slow to respond to social distancing mandates - these countries are overwhelmingly likely to be where Italy is today, with several hundred daily deaths, in a couple weeks time. )
If you go by a 40% infection rate and 1% mortality rate and you spread the disease out over an entire year (just for simplicity's sake), a country with Italy's population will be looking at something like 700 new deaths every single day for that year. Real mortality rates are certainly up in the air, how many will become infected is not a foregone conclusion either, but there are many countries that are headed straight for worse numbers than what we are seeing in Italy right now. There is a huge discrepancy between Italy and the other countries you mention in the number of deaths and the number of critical cases compared to the total number of cases. As you say, that could be because other countries are testing much more than Italy. But that must in turn mean that the disease has infected an astounding number of people in Italy since they literally have 1000 times more patients in critical condition than Germany right now. It feels as if there must be some underlying factors at play.
There do not even exist stats for how many people are in critical condition in Germany. They simply do not exist.
And yes, some stats pages write a 2 there.
Does that count as underlying factor?
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On March 19 2020 19:03 Elroi wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2020 07:01 Liquid`Drone wrote:
I believe the main reason is that they are 10 days-2 weeks ahead of many other countries and that you might see similar daily death counts in countries like spain france uk, where the response wasn't all that swift and where people took their fair time adhering to social distancing commands in the next two weeks.
(Going by worldometer numbers; 10 days ago, on march 8th, Italy had 6k infected, 366 deaths. France right now has 9k infected, 266 deaths. Spain almost 15k infected, 638 deaths. The UK is currently at 2600 cases and 104 deaths - Italy was at 3k cases and 107 deaths on march 4th, two weeks ago. % differences in mortality rate can be explained mostly by difference in amount of testing (how many low symptom or asymptomatic cases that are tested, in particular) and whether health care services are overrun or not, but it's pretty clear that many other countries are heading straight towards Italy numbers. This is exactly why it is so depressing to see so many countries with populations that are really slow to respond to social distancing mandates - these countries are overwhelmingly likely to be where Italy is today, with several hundred daily deaths, in a couple weeks time. )
If you go by a 40% infection rate and 1% mortality rate and you spread the disease out over an entire year (just for simplicity's sake), a country with Italy's population will be looking at something like 700 new deaths every single day for that year. Real mortality rates are certainly up in the air, how many will become infected is not a foregone conclusion either, but there are many countries that are headed straight for worse numbers than what we are seeing in Italy right now. There is a huge discrepancy between Italy and the other countries you mention in the number of deaths and the number of critical cases compared to the total number of cases. As you say, that could be because other countries are testing much more than Italy. But that must in turn mean that the disease has infected an astounding number of people in Italy since they literally have 1000 times more patients in critical condition than Germany right now. It feels as if there must be some underlying factors at play. How does Germany now compare to Italy 2 weeks ago?
From what I understand Italy was (one of the) main infection vectors for Europe. Someone there slipped through the net and caused it to spread, then people returning from vacation in Italy infected other countries. This is what seems to have happened in the Netherlands and I assume also in Germany?
This means Italy is 2 weeks in front of the rest of Europe. 2 weeks ago Italy had just started to start a spike upwards and the northern region wasn't even quarantined yet.
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Norway28675 Posts
On March 19 2020 19:03 Elroi wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2020 07:01 Liquid`Drone wrote:
I believe the main reason is that they are 10 days-2 weeks ahead of many other countries and that you might see similar daily death counts in countries like spain france uk, where the response wasn't all that swift and where people took their fair time adhering to social distancing commands in the next two weeks.
(Going by worldometer numbers; 10 days ago, on march 8th, Italy had 6k infected, 366 deaths. France right now has 9k infected, 266 deaths. Spain almost 15k infected, 638 deaths. The UK is currently at 2600 cases and 104 deaths - Italy was at 3k cases and 107 deaths on march 4th, two weeks ago. % differences in mortality rate can be explained mostly by difference in amount of testing (how many low symptom or asymptomatic cases that are tested, in particular) and whether health care services are overrun or not, but it's pretty clear that many other countries are heading straight towards Italy numbers. This is exactly why it is so depressing to see so many countries with populations that are really slow to respond to social distancing mandates - these countries are overwhelmingly likely to be where Italy is today, with several hundred daily deaths, in a couple weeks time. )
If you go by a 40% infection rate and 1% mortality rate and you spread the disease out over an entire year (just for simplicity's sake), a country with Italy's population will be looking at something like 700 new deaths every single day for that year. Real mortality rates are certainly up in the air, how many will become infected is not a foregone conclusion either, but there are many countries that are headed straight for worse numbers than what we are seeing in Italy right now. There is a huge discrepancy between Italy and the other countries you mention in the number of deaths and the number of critical cases compared to the total number of cases. As you say, that could be because other countries are testing much more than Italy. But that must in turn mean that the disease has infected an astounding number of people in Italy since they literally have 1000 times more patients in critical condition than Germany right now. It feels as if there must be some underlying factors at play.
Sadly, I believe the main underlying factor is 'time passed since the disease started spreading'.
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On March 19 2020 19:40 mahrgell wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2020 19:03 Elroi wrote:On March 19 2020 07:01 Liquid`Drone wrote:
I believe the main reason is that they are 10 days-2 weeks ahead of many other countries and that you might see similar daily death counts in countries like spain france uk, where the response wasn't all that swift and where people took their fair time adhering to social distancing commands in the next two weeks.
(Going by worldometer numbers; 10 days ago, on march 8th, Italy had 6k infected, 366 deaths. France right now has 9k infected, 266 deaths. Spain almost 15k infected, 638 deaths. The UK is currently at 2600 cases and 104 deaths - Italy was at 3k cases and 107 deaths on march 4th, two weeks ago. % differences in mortality rate can be explained mostly by difference in amount of testing (how many low symptom or asymptomatic cases that are tested, in particular) and whether health care services are overrun or not, but it's pretty clear that many other countries are heading straight towards Italy numbers. This is exactly why it is so depressing to see so many countries with populations that are really slow to respond to social distancing mandates - these countries are overwhelmingly likely to be where Italy is today, with several hundred daily deaths, in a couple weeks time. )
If you go by a 40% infection rate and 1% mortality rate and you spread the disease out over an entire year (just for simplicity's sake), a country with Italy's population will be looking at something like 700 new deaths every single day for that year. Real mortality rates are certainly up in the air, how many will become infected is not a foregone conclusion either, but there are many countries that are headed straight for worse numbers than what we are seeing in Italy right now. There is a huge discrepancy between Italy and the other countries you mention in the number of deaths and the number of critical cases compared to the total number of cases. As you say, that could be because other countries are testing much more than Italy. But that must in turn mean that the disease has infected an astounding number of people in Italy since they literally have 1000 times more patients in critical condition than Germany right now. It feels as if there must be some underlying factors at play. There do not even exist stats for how many people are in critical condition in Germany. They simply do not exist. And yes, some stats pages write a 2 there. Does that count as underlying factor?
That would explain it. I believed the numbers on worldometer because they have been very consistent with the numbers presented by the central Swedish health organization.
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Seems to me if a test for antibodies (basically if you're immune) were to be developed, it would help in the long run - and this is a long run evidently - so that the people who had the virus could be cleared to go work, care for the elderly, etc.
@the poster who said they wanted to be done with constant updates on the situation: probably you left here accordingly, but still. I think your feelings are perfectly normal. If you're able to stop caring about this overmuch while still following the health authorities guidance, you will be actually a help to those around you who have anxiety or even panic.
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No I check here often. Over here there's actually some constructive discussion and from different parts of the world. Having all the dumb stuff from the radio and uninformed people is what's actually driving me nuts. I do kind of love the empty streets and public places though (I have to commute to work and don't need to work at home because of a necessary sector).
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Norway28675 Posts
On March 19 2020 16:51 Acrofales wrote:
2. In most Western countries 50% of the population is over 50. So to achieve the numbers required for herd immunity, a significant portion of at-risk people also need to be exposed even if you manage to expose 100% of the rest.
Not to nitpick but did you mean over 40? Cuz median age for the EU is 42.9 and for the US it's 38.1.
Monaco is the only country above 50. source
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On March 19 2020 19:52 Elroi wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2020 19:40 mahrgell wrote:On March 19 2020 19:03 Elroi wrote:On March 19 2020 07:01 Liquid`Drone wrote:
I believe the main reason is that they are 10 days-2 weeks ahead of many other countries and that you might see similar daily death counts in countries like spain france uk, where the response wasn't all that swift and where people took their fair time adhering to social distancing commands in the next two weeks.
(Going by worldometer numbers; 10 days ago, on march 8th, Italy had 6k infected, 366 deaths. France right now has 9k infected, 266 deaths. Spain almost 15k infected, 638 deaths. The UK is currently at 2600 cases and 104 deaths - Italy was at 3k cases and 107 deaths on march 4th, two weeks ago. % differences in mortality rate can be explained mostly by difference in amount of testing (how many low symptom or asymptomatic cases that are tested, in particular) and whether health care services are overrun or not, but it's pretty clear that many other countries are heading straight towards Italy numbers. This is exactly why it is so depressing to see so many countries with populations that are really slow to respond to social distancing mandates - these countries are overwhelmingly likely to be where Italy is today, with several hundred daily deaths, in a couple weeks time. )
If you go by a 40% infection rate and 1% mortality rate and you spread the disease out over an entire year (just for simplicity's sake), a country with Italy's population will be looking at something like 700 new deaths every single day for that year. Real mortality rates are certainly up in the air, how many will become infected is not a foregone conclusion either, but there are many countries that are headed straight for worse numbers than what we are seeing in Italy right now. There is a huge discrepancy between Italy and the other countries you mention in the number of deaths and the number of critical cases compared to the total number of cases. As you say, that could be because other countries are testing much more than Italy. But that must in turn mean that the disease has infected an astounding number of people in Italy since they literally have 1000 times more patients in critical condition than Germany right now. It feels as if there must be some underlying factors at play. There do not even exist stats for how many people are in critical condition in Germany. They simply do not exist. And yes, some stats pages write a 2 there. Does that count as underlying factor? That would explain it. I believed the numbers on worldometer because they have been very consistent with the numbers presented by the central Swedish health organization.
The German numbers are generally slightly troublesome.
The system is highly decentralized. In Germany, the responsible authority to collect those numbers is the Rober Koch Institut (RKI) They basically provide the "official" numbers. Their numbers should be considered the most trustworthy. But they have some severe reporting delay. (about 1-2 days)
So, for instance, the John Hopkins numbers, which are mostly used worldwide (and which also feed the Morgenpost, which is again feeding worldometer mostly for Germany) are actually manually trying to aggregate the numbers of all those local authorities and institutions. This results in them being kinda "ahead" of the RKI numbers by about a day.
Now onto the tracked statistics. There are only 2 numbers that are reported by everyone:
a) infections
b) deaths
Those are the only 2 numbers which should be considered of any value for Germany as a whole.
So if you are looking for the other numbers, they can all be considered incomplete:
- critical condition - that's basically not tracked at all. It seems one place is having it, and that's why their 2 critical patients show up in the stats.
- recovered - Some places track it, but this is not actually tracked everywhere either. There are (varying) local rules on when someone is considered cured and some simply don't track the number at all. There it goes by "x days quarantine, and if you don't have symptoms for y days, you are good to go."
- number of tests - Here all labs directly reporting to the RKI nowadays report their number of tests. This were 100k tests last week, 35k tests the week before. But when for instance hospitals have their own tests, those do not report their number of tests, but only their positive ones.
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On March 19 2020 08:00 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2020 07:03 SC-Shield wrote:On March 19 2020 07:01 Liquid`Drone wrote:
I believe the main reason is that they are 10 days-2 weeks ahead of many other countries and that you might see similar daily death counts in countries like spain france uk, where the response wasn't all that swift and where people took their fair time adhering to social distancing commands in the next two weeks.
(Going by worldometer numbers; 10 days ago, on march 8th, Italy had 6k infected, 366 deaths. France right now has 9k infected, 266 deaths. Spain almost 15k infected, 638 deaths. The UK is currently at 2600 cases and 104 deaths - Italy was at 3k cases and 107 deaths on march 4th, two weeks ago. % differences in mortality rate can be explained mostly by difference in amount of testing (how many low symptom or asymptomatic cases that are tested, in particular) and whether health care services are overrun or not, but it's pretty clear that many other countries are heading straight towards Italy numbers. This is exactly why it is so depressing to see so many countries with populations that are really slow to respond to social distancing mandates - these countries are overwhelmingly likely to be where Italy is today, with several hundred daily deaths, in a couple weeks time. )
If you go by a 40% infection rate and 1% mortality rate and you spread the disease out over an entire year (just for simplicity's sake), a country with Italy's population will be looking at something like 700 new deaths every single day for that year. Real mortality rates are certainly up in the air, how many will become infected is not a foregone conclusion either, but there are many countries that are headed straight for worse numbers than what we are seeing in Italy right now. I don't know why you guys go for estimates when every estimate you have is countered by the current situation in China and South Korea. Mortality rate is really low right now and a lot of people have recovered in China, too. More than Italy for sure. Some guy posted a map from Bing, so just check it out. China and South Korea clamped down hard and fast (China took a bit longer but they were the first and didn't know what they were dealing with yet.). Italy was to slow.
The mayor of Florence encouraging locals to hug people of Asian appearance in early February probably wasn't the brightest idea in history.Countries should have closed their borders sooner but what's done is done, now we somehow deal with the economic fallout of this thing.
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On March 19 2020 21:04 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2020 08:00 Gorsameth wrote:On March 19 2020 07:03 SC-Shield wrote:On March 19 2020 07:01 Liquid`Drone wrote:
I believe the main reason is that they are 10 days-2 weeks ahead of many other countries and that you might see similar daily death counts in countries like spain france uk, where the response wasn't all that swift and where people took their fair time adhering to social distancing commands in the next two weeks.
(Going by worldometer numbers; 10 days ago, on march 8th, Italy had 6k infected, 366 deaths. France right now has 9k infected, 266 deaths. Spain almost 15k infected, 638 deaths. The UK is currently at 2600 cases and 104 deaths - Italy was at 3k cases and 107 deaths on march 4th, two weeks ago. % differences in mortality rate can be explained mostly by difference in amount of testing (how many low symptom or asymptomatic cases that are tested, in particular) and whether health care services are overrun or not, but it's pretty clear that many other countries are heading straight towards Italy numbers. This is exactly why it is so depressing to see so many countries with populations that are really slow to respond to social distancing mandates - these countries are overwhelmingly likely to be where Italy is today, with several hundred daily deaths, in a couple weeks time. )
If you go by a 40% infection rate and 1% mortality rate and you spread the disease out over an entire year (just for simplicity's sake), a country with Italy's population will be looking at something like 700 new deaths every single day for that year. Real mortality rates are certainly up in the air, how many will become infected is not a foregone conclusion either, but there are many countries that are headed straight for worse numbers than what we are seeing in Italy right now. I don't know why you guys go for estimates when every estimate you have is countered by the current situation in China and South Korea. Mortality rate is really low right now and a lot of people have recovered in China, too. More than Italy for sure. Some guy posted a map from Bing, so just check it out. China and South Korea clamped down hard and fast (China took a bit longer but they were the first and didn't know what they were dealing with yet.). Italy was to slow. The mayor of Florence encouraging locals to hug people of Asian appearance in early February probably wasn't the brightest idea in history.Countries should have closed their borders sooner but what's done is done, now we somehow deal with the economic fallout of this thing.
The only match to your claim that I could find real quick is an obscure youtube channel.
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On March 19 2020 21:04 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On March 19 2020 08:00 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2020 07:03 SC-Shield wrote:On March 19 2020 07:01 Liquid`Drone wrote:
I believe the main reason is that they are 10 days-2 weeks ahead of many other countries and that you might see similar daily death counts in countries like spain france uk, where the response wasn't all that swift and where people took their fair time adhering to social distancing commands in the next two weeks.
(Going by worldometer numbers; 10 days ago, on march 8th, Italy had 6k infected, 366 deaths. France right now has 9k infected, 266 deaths. Spain almost 15k infected, 638 deaths. The UK is currently at 2600 cases and 104 deaths - Italy was at 3k cases and 107 deaths on march 4th, two weeks ago. % differences in mortality rate can be explained mostly by difference in amount of testing (how many low symptom or asymptomatic cases that are tested, in particular) and whether health care services are overrun or not, but it's pretty clear that many other countries are heading straight towards Italy numbers. This is exactly why it is so depressing to see so many countries with populations that are really slow to respond to social distancing mandates - these countries are overwhelmingly likely to be where Italy is today, with several hundred daily deaths, in a couple weeks time. )
If you go by a 40% infection rate and 1% mortality rate and you spread the disease out over an entire year (just for simplicity's sake), a country with Italy's population will be looking at something like 700 new deaths every single day for that year. Real mortality rates are certainly up in the air, how many will become infected is not a foregone conclusion either, but there are many countries that are headed straight for worse numbers than what we are seeing in Italy right now. I don't know why you guys go for estimates when every estimate you have is countered by the current situation in China and South Korea. Mortality rate is really low right now and a lot of people have recovered in China, too. More than Italy for sure. Some guy posted a map from Bing, so just check it out. China and South Korea clamped down hard and fast (China took a bit longer but they were the first and didn't know what they were dealing with yet.). Italy was to slow. The mayor of Florence encouraging locals to hug people of Asian appearance in early February probably wasn't the brightest idea in history.Countries should have closed their borders sooner but what's done is done, now we somehow deal with the economic fallout of this thing.
The good thing about this corona crisis is people looking for and returning to credible news sources. You should follow their example.
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On March 19 2020 21:07 Artisreal wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2020 21:04 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:On March 19 2020 08:00 Gorsameth wrote:On March 19 2020 07:03 SC-Shield wrote:On March 19 2020 07:01 Liquid`Drone wrote:
I believe the main reason is that they are 10 days-2 weeks ahead of many other countries and that you might see similar daily death counts in countries like spain france uk, where the response wasn't all that swift and where people took their fair time adhering to social distancing commands in the next two weeks.
(Going by worldometer numbers; 10 days ago, on march 8th, Italy had 6k infected, 366 deaths. France right now has 9k infected, 266 deaths. Spain almost 15k infected, 638 deaths. The UK is currently at 2600 cases and 104 deaths - Italy was at 3k cases and 107 deaths on march 4th, two weeks ago. % differences in mortality rate can be explained mostly by difference in amount of testing (how many low symptom or asymptomatic cases that are tested, in particular) and whether health care services are overrun or not, but it's pretty clear that many other countries are heading straight towards Italy numbers. This is exactly why it is so depressing to see so many countries with populations that are really slow to respond to social distancing mandates - these countries are overwhelmingly likely to be where Italy is today, with several hundred daily deaths, in a couple weeks time. )
If you go by a 40% infection rate and 1% mortality rate and you spread the disease out over an entire year (just for simplicity's sake), a country with Italy's population will be looking at something like 700 new deaths every single day for that year. Real mortality rates are certainly up in the air, how many will become infected is not a foregone conclusion either, but there are many countries that are headed straight for worse numbers than what we are seeing in Italy right now. I don't know why you guys go for estimates when every estimate you have is countered by the current situation in China and South Korea. Mortality rate is really low right now and a lot of people have recovered in China, too. More than Italy for sure. Some guy posted a map from Bing, so just check it out. China and South Korea clamped down hard and fast (China took a bit longer but they were the first and didn't know what they were dealing with yet.). Italy was to slow. The mayor of Florence encouraging locals to hug people of Asian appearance in early February probably wasn't the brightest idea in history.Countries should have closed their borders sooner but what's done is done, now we somehow deal with the economic fallout of this thing. The only match to your claim that I could find real quick is an obscure youtube channel.
You can't speak Italian yes? What do you expect?
The mayor's official Twitter feed is in Italian but watch the video he posted and it's pretty clear.
https://mobile.twitter.com/DarioNardella/status/1223620740689338369
The good thing about this corona crisis is people looking for and returning to credible news sources. You should follow their example.
See Mayor of Florence's video on his official Twitter above from Feb 1st.Credible enough for you?
It happened.Whats done is done.Now we live with the fallout and fight on.
User was temp banned for this post.
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Northern Ireland25506 Posts
On March 19 2020 13:46 GreenHorizons wrote:
I want capitalism to die, but for those that wish to preserve it, I don't think Vivax is entirely out of pocket on this one.
What if we just locked down the people at risk and gave them empty residences to quarantine in (or for cohabitants to temp relocate to) if they lived with people outside of the at risk group?
Couldn't you keep the economy chugging while minimizing exposure for those most at risk? Maybe I'm missing something obvious?
While I’ve previously advocated seizing vacant property that vulture capital etc sit on for housing in ‘peacetime’ for people to actually live in, just reappropriate all of it now as quarantine space. I’m not sure it’s viable in the U.K. currently but other places have granted emergency powers that would make it doable.
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On March 19 2020 21:19 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On March 19 2020 21:07 Artisreal wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2020 21:04 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:On March 19 2020 08:00 Gorsameth wrote:On March 19 2020 07:03 SC-Shield wrote:On March 19 2020 07:01 Liquid`Drone wrote:
I believe the main reason is that they are 10 days-2 weeks ahead of many other countries and that you might see similar daily death counts in countries like spain france uk, where the response wasn't all that swift and where people took their fair time adhering to social distancing commands in the next two weeks.
(Going by worldometer numbers; 10 days ago, on march 8th, Italy had 6k infected, 366 deaths. France right now has 9k infected, 266 deaths. Spain almost 15k infected, 638 deaths. The UK is currently at 2600 cases and 104 deaths - Italy was at 3k cases and 107 deaths on march 4th, two weeks ago. % differences in mortality rate can be explained mostly by difference in amount of testing (how many low symptom or asymptomatic cases that are tested, in particular) and whether health care services are overrun or not, but it's pretty clear that many other countries are heading straight towards Italy numbers. This is exactly why it is so depressing to see so many countries with populations that are really slow to respond to social distancing mandates - these countries are overwhelmingly likely to be where Italy is today, with several hundred daily deaths, in a couple weeks time. )
If you go by a 40% infection rate and 1% mortality rate and you spread the disease out over an entire year (just for simplicity's sake), a country with Italy's population will be looking at something like 700 new deaths every single day for that year. Real mortality rates are certainly up in the air, how many will become infected is not a foregone conclusion either, but there are many countries that are headed straight for worse numbers than what we are seeing in Italy right now. I don't know why you guys go for estimates when every estimate you have is countered by the current situation in China and South Korea. Mortality rate is really low right now and a lot of people have recovered in China, too. More than Italy for sure. Some guy posted a map from Bing, so just check it out. China and South Korea clamped down hard and fast (China took a bit longer but they were the first and didn't know what they were dealing with yet.). Italy was to slow. The mayor of Florence encouraging locals to hug people of Asian appearance in early February probably wasn't the brightest idea in history.Countries should have closed their borders sooner but what's done is done, now we somehow deal with the economic fallout of this thing. The only match to your claim that I could find real quick is an obscure youtube channel. You can't speak Italian yes? What do you expect? The mayor's official Twitter feed is in Italian but watch the video he posted and it's pretty clear. https://mobile.twitter.com/DarioNardella/status/1223620740689338369
The good thing about this corona crisis is people looking for and returning to credible news sources. You should follow their example.
See Mayor of Florence's video on his official Twitter above from Feb 1st.Credible enough for you? It happened.Whats done is done.Now we live with the fallout and fight on.
Nicely baited, why you didn't you provide the source with your claim? Well what that mayor did was obviously stupid. Just looking chinese doesn't really say anything though. My neighbours wife is chinese and hasn't been there in a year. So what shall i do about her?
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Northern Ireland25506 Posts
On March 19 2020 21:55 r00ty wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2020 21:19 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On March 19 2020 21:07 Artisreal wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2020 21:04 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:On March 19 2020 08:00 Gorsameth wrote:On March 19 2020 07:03 SC-Shield wrote:On March 19 2020 07:01 Liquid`Drone wrote:
I believe the main reason is that they are 10 days-2 weeks ahead of many other countries and that you might see similar daily death counts in countries like spain france uk, where the response wasn't all that swift and where people took their fair time adhering to social distancing commands in the next two weeks.
(Going by worldometer numbers; 10 days ago, on march 8th, Italy had 6k infected, 366 deaths. France right now has 9k infected, 266 deaths. Spain almost 15k infected, 638 deaths. The UK is currently at 2600 cases and 104 deaths - Italy was at 3k cases and 107 deaths on march 4th, two weeks ago. % differences in mortality rate can be explained mostly by difference in amount of testing (how many low symptom or asymptomatic cases that are tested, in particular) and whether health care services are overrun or not, but it's pretty clear that many other countries are heading straight towards Italy numbers. This is exactly why it is so depressing to see so many countries with populations that are really slow to respond to social distancing mandates - these countries are overwhelmingly likely to be where Italy is today, with several hundred daily deaths, in a couple weeks time. )
If you go by a 40% infection rate and 1% mortality rate and you spread the disease out over an entire year (just for simplicity's sake), a country with Italy's population will be looking at something like 700 new deaths every single day for that year. Real mortality rates are certainly up in the air, how many will become infected is not a foregone conclusion either, but there are many countries that are headed straight for worse numbers than what we are seeing in Italy right now. I don't know why you guys go for estimates when every estimate you have is countered by the current situation in China and South Korea. Mortality rate is really low right now and a lot of people have recovered in China, too. More than Italy for sure. Some guy posted a map from Bing, so just check it out. China and South Korea clamped down hard and fast (China took a bit longer but they were the first and didn't know what they were dealing with yet.). Italy was to slow. The mayor of Florence encouraging locals to hug people of Asian appearance in early February probably wasn't the brightest idea in history.Countries should have closed their borders sooner but what's done is done, now we somehow deal with the economic fallout of this thing. The only match to your claim that I could find real quick is an obscure youtube channel. You can't speak Italian yes? What do you expect? The mayor's official Twitter feed is in Italian but watch the video he posted and it's pretty clear. https://mobile.twitter.com/DarioNardella/status/1223620740689338369
The good thing about this corona crisis is people looking for and returning to credible news sources. You should follow their example.
See Mayor of Florence's video on his official Twitter above from Feb 1st.Credible enough for you? It happened.Whats done is done.Now we live with the fallout and fight on. Nicely baited, why you didn't you provide the source with your claim? Well what that mayor did was obviously stupid. Just looking chinese doesn't really say anything though. My neighbours wife is chinese and hasn't been there in a year. So what shall i do about her?
Stupid but I presume well-intentioned, probably a miscalculation in retrospect but imploring people not to blame Asian people and whatnot for Corona is a laudable sentiment.
Also even if people took this to absolute heart I can’t see it making a huge difference in the wider scheme of things in Italy’s response to the crisis.
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Nicely baited, why you didn't you provide the source with your claim? Well what that mayor did was obviously stupid. Just looking chinese doesn't really say anything though. My neighbours wife is chinese and hasn't been there in a year. So what shall i do about her?
I figured people here already knew that news, it's hardly breaking.
It wasn't a great move in retrospect considering Trump had already barred entry for Foreign nationals who had recently been through China and announced a 'do not travel' warning for China the day prior Jan 31st.Was this the reason for this Ill-thought campaign? Odd timing.
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Ran the tweet through the translator and he’s talking about discouraging xenophobia towards Asians.
“Feb 1
#coronavirus: we follow the indications of the health authorities and we use caution, but no psychological terrorism and above all enough with the usual jackals who could not wait to use this excuse to hate and insult. United in this common battle! #HugAChinese”
He’s clearly using the hashtag and hugging the individual to emphasize a point; this doesn’t indicate that he actually wants the populace to hug any Asians they see.
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There are literally hundreds of examples of local leaders doing dumb shit in response to Covid-19, yet Nettles picked a disputable one with obvious racial overtones.
As anyone familiar with his posts would know, this is not a coincidence.
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EPT
