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Any and all updates regarding the COVID-19 will need a source provided. Please do your part in helping us to keep this thread maintainable and under control. It is YOUR responsibility to fully read through the sources that you link, and you MUST provide a brief summary explaining what the source is about. Do not expect other people to do the work for you. Conspiracy theories and fear mongering will absolutely not be tolerated in this thread. Expect harsh mod actions if you try to incite fear needlessly. This is not a politics thread! You are allowed to post information regarding politics if it's related to the coronavirus, but do NOT discuss politics in here. Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better. | ||
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WombaT
Northern Ireland27464 Posts
On March 18 2020 10:33 evilfatsh1t wrote: id put money on japan either hiding data or being deliberately negligent in order to keep their olympic plans alive. Know any bookmakers who are taking that bet? Could do with some cash reserves for the months ahead! | ||
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Danglars
United States12133 Posts
That’s 3 million Californians locked down in terms of having friends over. It’s the third most populous county in the state. Source https://cms.ocgov.com/civicax/filebank/blobdload.aspx?BlobID=114362 | ||
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Manit0u
Poland17851 Posts
On March 18 2020 10:33 evilfatsh1t wrote: id put money on japan either hiding data or being deliberately negligent in order to keep their olympic plans alive. I just saw this on the Internet. Coincidence? ![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/gvpoCEP.png) Just as mindblowing as the Illuminati card game was with predicting the future. In any case, I think it'll get much worse before it gets better. I seriously hope I'll live through it so I can take a look at the full picture when this blows over. | ||
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Mohdoo
United States15743 Posts
On March 18 2020 12:08 Manit0u wrote: I just saw this on the Internet. Coincidence? Just as mindblowing as the Illuminati card game was with predicting the future. In any case, I think it'll get much worse before it gets better. I seriously hope I'll live through it so I can take a look at the full picture when this blows over. ............wow. I'm sorry but its too much of a coincidence. This is actually amazing. | ||
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ZigguratOfUr
Iraq16955 Posts
On March 18 2020 12:23 Mohdoo wrote: ............wow. I'm sorry but its too much of a coincidence. This is actually amazing. That meme is mostly false. Yes there's one random panel in the manga where it's showing how harsh life is in Neo-Tokyo by mentioning among other things that WHO is criticizing Neo-Tokyo's epidemic measures. Yes the manga has the 2020 Olympics set in Neo-Tokyo. No the manga does not have "WHO advise Japan to postpone the Olympics due to a pandemic". | ||
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huynhpro
1 Post
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Elroi
Sweden5617 Posts
On March 18 2020 07:33 Slydie wrote: In my area there are currently 1 infected per 10k citizens and a low number of deaths, most very old. Am I crazy to believe putting the whole population in quarantine, having risking losing your ID document if you go for a walk without enough of a purpose is completely outrageous? Sure, I hear about "flattening the curve" and "overloaded systems" but right now, this is just silly and robbing peoples lives for practically no reason. Most places , it is not nearly as strict! User was temp banned for this post. I don't know where you live and I'm no professional so I cannot say for sure, of course, but to me your perspective doesn't sound too unreasonable. At least in Sweden we have taken much lighter measures so far than most countries (no closed schools no curfews etc). The head of the Swedish health council has repeatedly defended this by saying that it is counter productive to use too harsh measures before the disease has spread enough in the population for them to be efficient (unless you can stop the disease all together which we can't either way). Used too early they are simply counter productive in his opinion. I'm in no position to judge this, but I have noticed that Norway and Denmark who took much more far reaching measures much earlier than Sweden and seem to be in an over-all similar position hasn't reaped any benefits from these measures (judging by the statistics). All in all, I think the appropriate preventive measures are much more complex than to just shut everything down. | ||
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Harris1st
Germany7426 Posts
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ttttt123
1 Post
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22662 Posts
On March 18 2020 16:57 Elroi wrote: How long ago were those measures taken? Because you need to remember lag time from incubation delays when you start seeing the effect of measures. After 2 weeks you would expect to start seeing differences based on measures taken.I don't know where you live and I'm no professional so I cannot say for sure, of course, but to me your perspective doesn't sound too unreasonable. At least in Sweden we have taken much lighter measures so far than most countries (no closed schools no curfews etc). The head of the Swedish health council has repeatedly defended this by saying that it is counter productive to use too harsh measures before the disease has spread enough in the population for them to be efficient (unless you can stop the disease all together which we can't either way). Used too early they are simply counter productive in his opinion. I'm in no position to judge this, but I have noticed that Norway and Denmark who took much more far reaching measures much earlier than Sweden and seem to be in an over-all similar position hasn't reaped any benefits from these measures (judging by the statistics). All in all, I think the appropriate preventive measures are much more complex than to just shut everything down. | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States24387 Posts
Computer modeling of the coronavirus outbreak’s course in China, in the weeks before a travel shutdown was imposed on Jan. 23, suggest that 86% of the infections went undocumented. www.geekwire.com | ||
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deacon.frost
Czech Republic12134 Posts
On March 18 2020 07:06 deacon.frost wrote: What. The. FUck. Somebody just found 200k of respirators and 20k of, uh, fuck, veils? (I really don't know how to call it in English) which are valid against the corona thingy. If you want to start believe in fairy tales, now's the good chance. Also pray for the poor soul who found them... + Show Spoiler + The only source i have is, again, in the Czech language An update, it's 680k of respirators and 28k veils(or w/e you call them  )They were not found, the company tried to increase the price when selling to the republic so they were taken away by the Police and they will be payed with what was previously agreed on. Some people.... Source in Czech only though: + Show Spoiler + | ||
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Geo.Rion
7377 Posts
On March 18 2020 17:06 Harris1st wrote: Thank god Starcraft returns to somewhat normal. At least something to take our minds of this... Seems like eastern Asia fended the virus off, most probably by tonight China and Korea wont even be in the top 5 as far as activ cases go, by next week they re gonna fall out of the top10 if the current trajectories dont drastically change. | ||
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Razyda
1067 Posts
Virus was identified in December - given similarity to common flu I dont really believe it was identified on first case and in 1 day. China start closing towns in January - Wuhan 23 January. First 2 cases in UK are reported January 31st - March 18 (around 7 weeks later) there is 1950 cases confirmed. This 7 weeks is roughly about the same time since virus appeared till closing Wuhan (again due to similarity to common flu I would guess it is way more than 7 weeks). Given the speed it spreads and fact that this are actually confirmed cases (properly tested) one would guess that actual numbers are likely two zeros higher. Now the reason I believe so: I am pretty sure i had an actual coronavirus as early as 1 January and my wife 2 weeks later. All the symptoms matched and while for me it was like really bad flu, my wife was 3 weeks barely able to move with doctors changing antibiotics and openly admitting they dont know what is happening. Now if we were able to get infected in the UK (no abroad trips) in December (5 days incubation period) then you do the math. My point is that there is no reason to panic (taking precautions =/= panic) as a lot of people most likely already were sick without even realizing it | ||
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Belisarius
Australia6233 Posts
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and "gee I felt pretty bad I bet I had corona" is not it. | ||
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Razyda
1067 Posts
On March 18 2020 21:35 Belisarius wrote: The likelihood that you had it in December in the UK is unbelievably low. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and "gee I felt pretty bad I bet I had corona" is not it. It is actually not if you read beginning of my post. Still if it was only my case I wouldnt say it was coronavirus, I would put it down to flu. My wife case was different though - literally all her symptoms matched, medicines didnt work and doctors didnt know whats happening. | ||
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Sbrubbles
Brazil5776 Posts
On March 18 2020 20:24 Geo.Rion wrote: Seems like eastern Asia fended the virus off, most probably by tonight China and Korea wont even be in the top 5 as far as activ cases go, by next week they re gonna fall out of the top10 if the current trajectories dont drastically change. A lot of talk (at least here in Brazil, where worry truly set in last week) has been about "flattening the curve", the second-best option given that assumes a large proportion of the population will get infected eventually and tries to delay infection so health services aren't overrun. The first-best option would be to isolate the virus completely or at least enough hold the infected numbers down for a year or more until a vaccine exists. What I don't understand is: is China and SK being successful in this? Their daily infection number has gone down drastically. | ||
opterown
Australia54784 Posts
On March 18 2020 21:48 Razyda wrote: It is actually not if you read beginning of my post. Still if it was only my case I wouldnt say it was coronavirus, I would put it down to flu. My wife case was different though - literally all her symptoms matched, medicines didnt work and doctors didnt know whats happening. The majority of these viruses are very similar in presentation. A clinician who claims they can diagnose - on clinical criteria - Influenza vs. Parainfluenza vs. RSV vs. Metapnuemovirus vs. coronavirus vs. anything else is misrepresenting their abilities. The sensitivity of clinician assessment is 15-36% https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29494950/ I would consider it highly unlikely that you and/or your wife had COVID-19. | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22662 Posts
On March 18 2020 21:48 Razyda wrote: If Corona was sweeping through the UK in december then there should be a 3 month long spike in pulmonary related deaths already. It is actually not if you read beginning of my post. Still if it was only my case I wouldnt say it was coronavirus, I would put it down to flu. My wife case was different though - literally all her symptoms matched, medicines didnt work and doctors didnt know whats happening. Nor does it compute with the reported curve, if there was a prior unnoticed infection wave there should have been a big spike at some point as previously unknown cases were now found to be connected to Corona. And there isn't, its follow the same exponentially growing curve everywhere. | ||
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deacon.frost
Czech Republic12134 Posts
On March 18 2020 21:15 Razyda wrote: Hmm is it just me who thinks that numbers are way, way off?? Virus was identified in December - given similarity to common flu I dont really believe it was identified on first case and in 1 day. China start closing towns in January - Wuhan 23 January. First 2 cases in UK are reported January 31st - March 18 (around 7 weeks later) there is 1950 cases confirmed. This 7 weeks is roughly about the same time since virus appeared till closing Wuhan (again due to similarity to common flu I would guess it is way more than 7 weeks). Given the speed it spreads and fact that this are actually confirmed cases (properly tested) one would guess that actual numbers are likely two zeros higher. Now the reason I believe so: I am pretty sure i had an actual coronavirus as early as 1 January and my wife 2 weeks later. All the symptoms matched and while for me it was like really bad flu, my wife was 3 weeks barely able to move with doctors changing antibiotics and openly admitting they dont know what is happening. Now if we were able to get infected in the UK (no abroad trips) in December (5 days incubation period) then you do the math. My point is that there is no reason to panic (taking precautions =/= panic) as a lot of people most likely already were sick without even realizing it It seems to me you underestimate how fast the growth of infected is. Also there's a good chance your first two infected were serious cases, not just "meh, it's nothing, i just got cold". Edit> IIRC the amount of infected doubles every 6 days, so let's say it was 20 when you caught the first two, 40(2), 80(3), 160(4), 360(5), 720(6), 1440(7) And that's me giving it doubling rate every 7 days and giving you that those 2 were 10 % of the population, in case the population was bigger(and there's a good chacne it was)...  | ||
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