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Any and all updates regarding the COVID-19 will need a source provided. Please do your part in helping us to keep this thread maintainable and under control.
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Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better. |
On March 18 2020 03:33 deacon.frost wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2020 00:04 Biff The Understudy wrote:On March 18 2020 00:00 Drake wrote:
as a german i feel the german numbers are not real ... with so many infected so few deaths, i doesnt give me confidence in my gouverment If there is one government I can't imagine cooking numbers and one leader I expect will treat this crisis with integrity, it's yours. I don't know, they're the home of VW in the end  They have great healthcare and social system and they are quite obidient. So if one nation has a good chance of fighting this shit while not locking everyone at home, it's Germany. Edit> unless they let in Czechs 
My anecdotal evidence is to the contrary. Lots of people in groups, especially on playgrounds.
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Less testing is difficult to judge. If you dont have many cases you dont need to test so much.
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opterown
Australia54784 Posts
On March 18 2020 03:44 SC-Shield wrote:
I don't know if you guys have explanation, but I can't find one for these questions.
1. Why isn't Japan hit harder? They have more older people than Italy and they're closer to China. Do they just have good healthcare?
2. Why isn't Russia affected much when they're close to China?
3. Why does USA have lower infections than countries like Spain and other European countries even though it's a bigger country? Is it because of tight borders?
I'm not exactly sure about Russia, but I know that Japan and USA are severely under-testing people. Don't have access to my envelop for quick maths but at last check korea had tested 5800 people per million while the US had tested 69 people per million. Japan somewhere super low as well, about 80 per million. That's almost 2 magnitudes elss testing. I suspect their untested background positive rate is much higher.
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The university I work for has now gone from "an extra week of spring break, all classes virtual" to "effective immediately everyone MUST work from home." Likely in part because an employee has just tested positive. All classrooms and meeting rooms locked, smelled detergent everywhere as I was leaving. All dissertation defenses MUST be virtual now.
Glad all my research can be done remotely.
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United States44170 Posts
On March 18 2020 04:48 pmh wrote:
Less testing is difficult to judge. If you dont have many cases you dont need to test so much.
You show that you don't have many cases by having lots of negative tests, not by having lots of untested people.
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On March 18 2020 04:56 opterown wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2020 03:44 SC-Shield wrote:
I don't know if you guys have explanation, but I can't find one for these questions.
1. Why isn't Japan hit harder? They have more older people than Italy and they're closer to China. Do they just have good healthcare?
2. Why isn't Russia affected much when they're close to China?
3. Why does USA have lower infections than countries like Spain and other European countries even though it's a bigger country? Is it because of tight borders? I'm not exactly sure about Russia, but I know that Japan and USA are severely under-testing people. Don't have access to my envelop for quick maths but at last check korea had tested 5800 people per million while the US had tested 69 people per million. Japan somewhere super low as well, about 80 per million. That's almost 2 magnitudes elss testing. I suspect their untested background positive rate is much higher.
I can't validate that the data my wife showed me is correct (it was some random graph with a source in Russian), but she said Russia has very few cases but the stats for pneumonia is spiking. That would suggest deficient testing, if true.
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On March 18 2020 03:46 Biff The Understudy wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2020 03:33 deacon.frost wrote:On March 18 2020 00:04 Biff The Understudy wrote:On March 18 2020 00:00 Drake wrote:
as a german i feel the german numbers are not real ... with so many infected so few deaths, i doesnt give me confidence in my gouverment If there is one government I can't imagine cooking numbers and one leader I expect will treat this crisis with integrity, it's yours. I don't know, they're the home of VW in the end They have great healthcare and social system and they are quite obidient. So if one nation has a good chance of fighting this shit while not locking everyone at home, it's Germany. Edit> unless they let in Czechs I feel we are on the same track in Norway. While the french have been behaving as usual like a bench of cows, packing themselves on the riverside, in parks and marketplace while the government was begging them not to gather, people here are remarkably disciplined. Bars and restaurants are still open and we can go out freely, but people are just staying mostly home and doing the right thing. In France, of course they had to call the army and lock everyone at home, because we are as a people too undisciplined and selfish to ever respect a recommendation. It's freaking shameful.
They didn't call the army for that, those were just some of the stupid rumors going around.
The army was contacted to help with essential activities in case these were short on personnel (considering that iirc the national police force, firemen, etc. help first, then the army itself joins in).
Doesn't look like they're needed so far either.
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So do we get to sue China for a massive reparations bill? Maybe throw the WHO in as an accessory?
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On March 18 2020 03:50 thePunGun wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2020 03:44 SC-Shield wrote:
I don't know if you guys have explanation, but I can't find one for these questions.
1. Why isn't Japan hit harder? They have more older people than Italy and they're closer to China. Do they just have good healthcare?
2. Why isn't Russia affected much when they're close to China?
3. Why does USA have lower infections than countries like Spain and other European countries even though it's a bigger country? Is it because of tight borders? Dunno about Japan and Russia, but the US is pretty much 5 weeks behind everyone else in testing. Because they refused to use the tests provided by the WHO and chose to manufacture their own test kits, which were very delayed and faulty at first.
https://khn.org/news/biden-falsely-blames-trump-administration-for-rejecting-who-coronavirus-test-kits-that-were-never-offered/
Thanks.
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On March 18 2020 04:56 opterown wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2020 03:44 SC-Shield wrote:
I don't know if you guys have explanation, but I can't find one for these questions.
1. Why isn't Japan hit harder? They have more older people than Italy and they're closer to China. Do they just have good healthcare?
2. Why isn't Russia affected much when they're close to China?
3. Why does USA have lower infections than countries like Spain and other European countries even though it's a bigger country? Is it because of tight borders? I'm not exactly sure about Russia, but I know that Japan and USA are severely under-testing people. Don't have access to my envelop for quick maths but at last check korea had tested 5800 people per million while the US had tested 69 people per million. Japan somewhere super low as well, about 80 per million. That's almost 2 magnitudes elss testing. I suspect their untested background positive rate is much higher.
Russia has currently 790 tests/million, the US latest numbers were 150. Also Russia actually had more and earlier checks at airports, and when you get the threat of years in a (Russian) prison, if you ignore your self isolation after immigration and infect someone, this is certainly making you think twice about either entering the country at all or ignoring that self isolation.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing usually has well sourced and recent numbers on tests.
Sadly Germany is missing, because the German numbers are not reported completely, but what is known that the labs reporting directly to the RKI (the central German institute for combating covid-19) had tested 100k people last week and 35k people the week before. But tests done by hospitals (who only report their positive tests, but not the number of tests) are not counted here, so the real numbers are a fair bit higher.
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On March 18 2020 05:32 Djzapz wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2020 04:56 opterown wrote:On March 18 2020 03:44 SC-Shield wrote:
I don't know if you guys have explanation, but I can't find one for these questions.
1. Why isn't Japan hit harder? They have more older people than Italy and they're closer to China. Do they just have good healthcare?
2. Why isn't Russia affected much when they're close to China?
3. Why does USA have lower infections than countries like Spain and other European countries even though it's a bigger country? Is it because of tight borders? I'm not exactly sure about Russia, but I know that Japan and USA are severely under-testing people. Don't have access to my envelop for quick maths but at last check korea had tested 5800 people per million while the US had tested 69 people per million. Japan somewhere super low as well, about 80 per million. That's almost 2 magnitudes elss testing. I suspect their untested background positive rate is much higher. I can't validate that the data my wife showed me is correct (it was some random graph with a source in Russian), but she said Russia has very few cases but the stats for pneumonia is spiking. That would suggest deficient testing, if true.
Mind linking said source? I'm ever so slightly curious.
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opterown
Australia54784 Posts
On March 18 2020 05:40 mahrgell wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2020 04:56 opterown wrote:On March 18 2020 03:44 SC-Shield wrote:
I don't know if you guys have explanation, but I can't find one for these questions.
1. Why isn't Japan hit harder? They have more older people than Italy and they're closer to China. Do they just have good healthcare?
2. Why isn't Russia affected much when they're close to China?
3. Why does USA have lower infections than countries like Spain and other European countries even though it's a bigger country? Is it because of tight borders? I'm not exactly sure about Russia, but I know that Japan and USA are severely under-testing people. Don't have access to my envelop for quick maths but at last check korea had tested 5800 people per million while the US had tested 69 people per million. Japan somewhere super low as well, about 80 per million. That's almost 2 magnitudes elss testing. I suspect their untested background positive rate is much higher. Russia has currently 790 tests/million, the US latest numbers were 150. Also Russia actually had more and earlier checks at airports, and when you get the threat of years in a (Russian) prison, if you ignore your self isolation after immigration and infect someone, this is certainly making you think twice about either entering the country at all or ignoring that self isolation. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing usually has well sourced and recent numbers on tests. Sadly Germany is missing, because the German numbers are not reported completely, but what is known that the labs reporting directly to the RKI (the central German institute for combating covid-19) had tested 100k people last week and 35k people the week before. But tests done by hospitals (who only report their positive tests, but not the number of tests) are not counted here, so the real numbers are a fair bit higher.
Cool, thanks for that. Saves me a lot of manual digging around haha. Didn't think of looking on wiki.
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On March 18 2020 05:39 Jerubaal wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2020 03:50 thePunGun wrote:On March 18 2020 03:44 SC-Shield wrote:
I don't know if you guys have explanation, but I can't find one for these questions.
1. Why isn't Japan hit harder? They have more older people than Italy and they're closer to China. Do they just have good healthcare?
2. Why isn't Russia affected much when they're close to China?
3. Why does USA have lower infections than countries like Spain and other European countries even though it's a bigger country? Is it because of tight borders? Dunno about Japan and Russia, but the US is pretty much 5 weeks behind everyone else in testing. Because they refused to use the tests provided by the WHO and chose to manufacture their own test kits, which were very delayed and faulty at first. https://khn.org/news/biden-falsely-blames-trump-administration-for-rejecting-who-coronavirus-test-kits-that-were-never-offered/Thanks.
What is that bullshit. They did not offer "tests", they offered the sequencing of the genome and protocol for producing the test, that was proven to work. The USA wanted to develop their own tests and ignored the protocols offered by the WHO.
Add to that that the CDC badly bungled the manufacturing of the tests, and you have a huge failure.
thePunGun's account is correct (the *protocol* to manufacture the test, not selling tests themselves). Biden's is not. The headline of the article is pretty misleading (Biden was probably confused as always, but the headline is...skewed), but the content is mostly correct (could have done more to point out the faulty process at CDC)
And doesn't mention this one, contrarily to the brother article published directly on politifact :-/. Ahhh, whatever.
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I don't know anything about international law, but unless they could in some way prove that the virus was intentionally spread (which I don't think it is), I don't see how there is a case there.
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On March 18 2020 05:36 Jerubaal wrote:
So do we get to sue China for a massive reparations bill? Maybe throw the WHO in as an accessory? Sure, if the Middle East gets to repeatedly sue America in return. How many countries have you destroyed there?
User was warned for this post
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On March 18 2020 05:40 mahrgell wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2020 04:56 opterown wrote:On March 18 2020 03:44 SC-Shield wrote:
I don't know if you guys have explanation, but I can't find one for these questions.
1. Why isn't Japan hit harder? They have more older people than Italy and they're closer to China. Do they just have good healthcare?
2. Why isn't Russia affected much when they're close to China?
3. Why does USA have lower infections than countries like Spain and other European countries even though it's a bigger country? Is it because of tight borders? I'm not exactly sure about Russia, but I know that Japan and USA are severely under-testing people. Don't have access to my envelop for quick maths but at last check korea had tested 5800 people per million while the US had tested 69 people per million. Japan somewhere super low as well, about 80 per million. That's almost 2 magnitudes elss testing. I suspect their untested background positive rate is much higher. Russia has currently 790 tests/million, the US latest numbers were 150. Also Russia actually had more and earlier checks at airports, and when you get the threat of years in a (Russian) prison, if you ignore your self isolation after immigration and infect someone, this is certainly making you think twice about either entering the country at all or ignoring that self isolation. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing usually has well sourced and recent numbers on tests. Sadly Germany is missing, because the German numbers are not reported completely, but what is known that the labs reporting directly to the RKI (the central German institute for combating covid-19) had tested 100k people last week and 35k people the week before. But tests done by hospitals (who only report their positive tests, but not the number of tests) are not counted here, so the real numbers are a fair bit higher.
Thanks!
Puts into perspective how screwed India is. Their tests/million is at 4. Literal millions of people will die in India and the government will just watch.
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To play along with the silly idea that a torts action at common law against China and/or WHO is even remotely possible, the doctrine of avoidable consequences as it relates to superseding acts by third party tortfeasors (the US government) would take a huge bite out of any potential damages claim that the plaintiffs could make. Even if a court could make the host of findings necessary to get China and/or the WHO on the liability hook, they could very easily point to the variety of ways that the US's failure to take obvious and necessary precautions in the face of the foreseeable threat was the closer proximate cause of their harm. By the end of the suit, the plaintiffs would probably end up with only the US as a defendant.
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EPT
