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Any and all updates regarding the COVID-19 will need a source provided. Please do your part in helping us to keep this thread maintainable and under control.
It is YOUR responsibility to fully read through the sources that you link, and you MUST provide a brief summary explaining what the source is about. Do not expect other people to do the work for you.
Conspiracy theories and fear mongering will absolutely not be tolerated in this thread. Expect harsh mod actions if you try to incite fear needlessly.
This is not a politics thread! You are allowed to post information regarding politics if it's related to the coronavirus, but do NOT discuss politics in here.
Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better. |
On March 17 2020 11:09 Belisarius wrote:This is not what the study shows at all. The title of the layperson-focused article is "Coronavirus is most contagious before and during the first week of symptoms". This is the opposite of your tldr. Read the sources more and reddit less, and do not spread misinformation in a crisis. What the study shows is that towards the tail of the infection you may still have viral RNA but no viable virus, suggesting that we might be able to release cases slightly sooner. It absolutely does not show that you are less infectious when you have symptoms. In fact, at the onset of symptoms you may be maximally infectious. This is true of many cold/flu type viruses. If you summarise, do it accurately.
It makes sense, but how infectious you are and how likely you are to actually infect other people are two different things. A person laying in bed with no energy behaves very differently to one with no symptoms who has no idea they carry the virus. This is the reason why mass testing seems to be the best way to fight the virus, rather than universal quarenteenes.
The most obvious example of 2 countries which were hit around the same time:
Italy: 24747 total cases, 3590 new cases, 1890 deaths, 368 new deaths
Republic of Korea: 8326, total cases, 75 (!) new cases, 74 total deaths, 0 (!) new deaths.
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/
Italy is in a full lockdown, Republic of Korea is not.
Article from Reuters:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN20Z27P
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Netherlands45349 Posts
Speaking of using the army, is it like a South Korean thing to just use the army for civil stuff (e.g. production of masks or setting up hospitals).
I dont think the army does much of anything here and It feels like they could help a lot. Even if it is just doing groceries for the eldery or something, I know its not neccesarily their job, but drastic times ask for drastic measures.
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Some statistics about coronavirus so far.
Countries, areas or territories with cases
China :81077 cases
Italy :24747 cases
Iran (Islamic Republic of) :14991 cases
Republic of Korea :8236 cases
Spain : 7753 cases
France :5380 cases
Germany :4838 cases
Switzerland :2200 cases
United States of America :1678 cases
Netherlands :1413 cases
The United Kingdom :1395 cases
Norway :1169 cases
Belgium :1085 cases
Sweden : 992 cases
Austria : 959 cases
Denmark :898 cases
Japan :814 cases
International conveyance (Diamond Princess) : 712 cases
Malaysia :553 cases
Qatar :401 cases
Australia :336 cases
Greece :331 cases
Canada :304 cases
Czechia :298 cases
Finland :272 cases
Israel :250 cases
Portugal :245 cases
Singapore :243 cases
Bahrain :221 cases
Slovenia :219 cases
Estonia :205 cases
Brazil :200 cases
Ireland :169 cases
Romania :158 cases
Poland :150 cases
Thailand :147 cases
Philippines :140 cases
Iceland :138 cases
Indonesia :134 cases
Egypt :126 cases
Iraq :124 cases
India :114 cases
Kuwait :112 cases
Saudi Arabia :103 cases
Lebanon : 99 cases
United Arab Emirates : 98 cases
San Marino : 92 cases
Chile : 75 cases
Peru : 71 cases
Russian Federation :63 cases
Slovakia :61 cases
Viet Nam :57 cases
Argentina :56 cases
Mexico :53 cases
Pakistan :52 cases
Bulgaria :51 cases
South Africa :51 cases
Brunei Darussalam :50 cases
Algeria :49 cases
Croatia :49 cases
Serbia :46 cases
Panama :43 cases
Albania :42 cases
occupied Palestinian territory :39 cases
Luxembourg :38 cases
Ecuador :37 cases
Belarus :36 cases
Latvia :34 cases
Cyprus :33 cases
Georgia :33 cases
Hungary :32 cases
Morocco :28 cases
Armenia :26 cases
Senegal :26 cases
Colombia :24 cases
Costa Rica :23 cases
Republic of Moldova :23 cases
Oman :22 cases
Malta :21 cases
Azerbaijan :19 cases
Sri Lanka :19 cases
Bosnia and Herzegovina :18 cases
Tunisia :18 cases
Afghanistan :16 cases
Martinique :15 cases
Maldives :13 cases
North Macedonia :13 cases
Cambodia :12 cases
Bolivia (Plurinational State of) :11 cases
Faroe Islands :11 cases
Jamaica :10 cases
Lithuania : 9 cases
Monaco : 9 cases
Réunion : 9 cases
Paraguay :8 cases
French Guiana : 7 cases
Liechtenstein : 7 cases
Guadeloupe :6 cases
Jordan :6 cases
Kazakhstan :6 cases
New Zealand :6 cases
Bangladesh :5 cases
Cameroon :5 cases
Dominican Republic :5 cases
Rwanda :5 cases
Turkey :5 cases
Cuba :4 cases
Guyana :4 cases
Seychelles :4 cases
Uruguay :4 cases
Uzbekistan :4 cases
Burkina Faso :3 cases
Cote d Ivoire :3 cases
French Polynesia :3 cases
Kenya :3 cases
Puerto Rico :3 cases
Saint Barthelemy :3 cases
Ukraine :3 cases
Andorra :2 cases
Curacao :2 cases
Democratic Republic of the Congo :2 cases
Ghana :2 cases
Honduras :2 cases
Jersey :2 cases
Namibia :2 cases
Nigeria :2 cases
Saint Martin :2 cases
Trinidad and Tobago :2 cases
Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) :2 cases
Antigua and Barbuda :1 cases
Bhutan :1 cases
Cayman Islands :1 cases
Central African Republic :1 cases
Congo :1 cases
Equatorial Guinea :1 cases
Eswatini :1 cases
Ethiopia :1 cases
Gabon :1 cases
Gibraltar :1 cases
Guernsey :1 cases
Guinea :1 cases
Holy See :1 cases
Mauritania :1 cases
Mayotte :1 cases
Mongolia :1 cases
Nepal :1 cases
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines :1 cases
Sudan :1 cases
Togo :1 cases
168,019
confirmed cases
6,610
deaths
148
countries, areas or territories with cases
Source: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5beeeee1b9125cd
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On March 17 2020 15:51 Kipsate wrote:
Speaking of using the army, is it like a South Korean thing to just use the army for civil stuff (e.g. production of masks or setting up hospitals).
I dont think the army does much of anything here and It feels like they could help a lot. Even if it is just doing groceries for the eldery or something, I know its not neccesarily their job, but drastic times ask for drastic measures.
It's different in different country IMO.In China,PLA is always the first one who come to help the people,this time PLA sent several medical teams to Wuhan before other provinces.
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I wonder what the real numbers are. If we knew how many tests countries are doing - i e in Sweden we only test patients at the hospital who have severe (but not necessarily critical) symptoms. Smart people should be able to roughly estimate the total numbers for the different countries from that information I think.
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United Kingdom13775 Posts
On March 17 2020 16:48 Elroi wrote:
I wonder what the real numbers are. If we knew how many tests countries are doing - i e in Sweden we only test patients at the hospital who have severe (but not necessarily critical) symptoms. Smart people should be able to roughly estimate the total numbers for the different countries from that information I think.
I suspect the only reasonably accurate numbers are going to be death rates. I’d use that as a basis to try to predict actual cases. Don’t immediately know what kind of probability model is best for that, but I’m certain a lot of people have tried to model it.
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On March 17 2020 16:48 Elroi wrote:
I wonder what the real numbers are. If we knew how many tests countries are doing - i e in Sweden we only test patients at the hospital who have severe (but not necessarily critical) symptoms. Smart people should be able to roughly estimate the total numbers for the different countries from that information I think.
I read somewhere that modeling suggested between 5 and 10 times more than the number of cases confirmed.
That being said, it certainly varies from country to country, which explains why Italy is at 11 death per 100 cases confirmed, while Germany is at something like 14 death for 7000 people diagnosed. The difference in care is a factor but it's certainly mostly about diagnosis discrepancy.
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On March 17 2020 17:00 Biff The Understudy wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2020 16:48 Elroi wrote:
I wonder what the real numbers are. If we knew how many tests countries are doing - i e in Sweden we only test patients at the hospital who have severe (but not necessarily critical) symptoms. Smart people should be able to roughly estimate the total numbers for the different countries from that information I think. I read somewhere that modeling suggested between 5 and 10 times more than the number of cases confirmed. That being said, it certainly varies from country to country, which explains why Italy is at 11 death per 100 cases confirmed, while Germany is at something like 14 death for 7000 people diagnosed. The difference in care is a factor but it's certainly mostly about diagnosis discrepancy.
One could start out with a country like South Korea which conducted a whooping 400k tests and reported 8326 total cases and 74 total deaths. That suggests a 0,88% deathrate over a reasonable sample size. If that formula is correct, you can multiply deaths by 113 to find the total number of cases.
Of course, there are other very important factors as well, like how well the healthcare is coping with the situation, if risk groups are protected well and the age and health of the population to begin with. The death numbers and the way they are reportetd may not be 100% comparable either.
EDIT: I also have to admit that the over 300 deaths in one day in Italy is too much, I hope it slows down soon! However, mass testing and pinpoint quarentieenes seem to be the solution, not lockdowns and travel bans. #Ihavebeentested should be started to try to get rid of potential stigma.
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On March 17 2020 18:19 Slydie wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2020 17:00 Biff The Understudy wrote:On March 17 2020 16:48 Elroi wrote:
I wonder what the real numbers are. If we knew how many tests countries are doing - i e in Sweden we only test patients at the hospital who have severe (but not necessarily critical) symptoms. Smart people should be able to roughly estimate the total numbers for the different countries from that information I think. I read somewhere that modeling suggested between 5 and 10 times more than the number of cases confirmed. That being said, it certainly varies from country to country, which explains why Italy is at 11 death per 100 cases confirmed, while Germany is at something like 14 death for 7000 people diagnosed. The difference in care is a factor but it's certainly mostly about diagnosis discrepancy. One could start out with a country like South Korea which conducted a whooping 400k tests and reported 8326 total cases and 74 total deaths. That suggests a 0,88% deathrate over a reasonable sample size. If that formula is correct, you can multiply deaths by 113 to find the total number of cases. Of course, there are other very important factors as well, like how well the healthcare is coping with the situation, if risk groups are protected well and the age and health of the population to begin with. The death numbers and the way they are reportetd may not be 100% comparable either. EDIT: I also have to admit that the over 300 deaths in one day in Italy is too much, I hope it slows down soon! However, mass testing and pinpoint quarentieenes seem to be the solution, not lockdowns and travel bans. #Ihavebeentested should be started to try to get rid of potential stigma.
Maybe i'm mixing things up, but arent you the one, who was arguing that governments are overreacting in Europe? If so, how do you justify using South Korea as an example for low deathrates, since they were probably top 3 as far as reactions and measures taken.
I mean, you have to do one or the other, say that governments should take extreme measures, to end up with favorable outcome like SK, or that governments shouldnt overreact and offer examples where that was the case, and the virus didnt wreck havoc.
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Czech Republic12129 Posts
On March 17 2020 18:19 Slydie wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2020 17:00 Biff The Understudy wrote:On March 17 2020 16:48 Elroi wrote:
I wonder what the real numbers are. If we knew how many tests countries are doing - i e in Sweden we only test patients at the hospital who have severe (but not necessarily critical) symptoms. Smart people should be able to roughly estimate the total numbers for the different countries from that information I think. I read somewhere that modeling suggested between 5 and 10 times more than the number of cases confirmed. That being said, it certainly varies from country to country, which explains why Italy is at 11 death per 100 cases confirmed, while Germany is at something like 14 death for 7000 people diagnosed. The difference in care is a factor but it's certainly mostly about diagnosis discrepancy. One could start out with a country like South Korea which conducted a whooping 400k tests and reported 8326 total cases and 74 total deaths. That suggests a 0,88% deathrate over a reasonable sample size. If that formula is correct, you can multiply deaths by 113 to find the total number of cases. Of course, there are other very important factors as well, like how well the healthcare is coping with the situation, if risk groups are protected well and the age and health of the population to begin with. The death numbers and the way they are reportetd may not be 100% comparable either. EDIT: I also have to admit that the over 300 deaths in one day in Italy is too much, I hope it slows down soon! However, mass testing and pinpoint quarentieenes seem to be the solution, not lockdowns and travel bans. #Ihavebeentested should be started to try to get rid of potential stigma.
Italian healthcare collapsed, so the Korean numbers are not usable for Italy. I hope they can get better soon.
edit - that\s based on the news reporting Italian doctors have to choose who to save and who to let die.
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On March 17 2020 19:10 deacon.frost wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2020 18:19 Slydie wrote:On March 17 2020 17:00 Biff The Understudy wrote:On March 17 2020 16:48 Elroi wrote:
I wonder what the real numbers are. If we knew how many tests countries are doing - i e in Sweden we only test patients at the hospital who have severe (but not necessarily critical) symptoms. Smart people should be able to roughly estimate the total numbers for the different countries from that information I think. I read somewhere that modeling suggested between 5 and 10 times more than the number of cases confirmed. That being said, it certainly varies from country to country, which explains why Italy is at 11 death per 100 cases confirmed, while Germany is at something like 14 death for 7000 people diagnosed. The difference in care is a factor but it's certainly mostly about diagnosis discrepancy. One could start out with a country like South Korea which conducted a whooping 400k tests and reported 8326 total cases and 74 total deaths. That suggests a 0,88% deathrate over a reasonable sample size. If that formula is correct, you can multiply deaths by 113 to find the total number of cases. Of course, there are other very important factors as well, like how well the healthcare is coping with the situation, if risk groups are protected well and the age and health of the population to begin with. The death numbers and the way they are reportetd may not be 100% comparable either. EDIT: I also have to admit that the over 300 deaths in one day in Italy is too much, I hope it slows down soon! However, mass testing and pinpoint quarentieenes seem to be the solution, not lockdowns and travel bans. #Ihavebeentested should be started to try to get rid of potential stigma. Italian healthcare collapsed, so the Korean numbers are not usable for Italy. I hope they can get better soon. edit - that\s based on the news reporting Italian doctors have to choose who to save and who to let die.
China has sent 2 teams of specialists and some medical supplies to Italy,I think there will be more.The situation in Italy is just what Wuhan was 2 months ago.
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On March 17 2020 18:19 Slydie wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2020 17:00 Biff The Understudy wrote:On March 17 2020 16:48 Elroi wrote:
I wonder what the real numbers are. If we knew how many tests countries are doing - i e in Sweden we only test patients at the hospital who have severe (but not necessarily critical) symptoms. Smart people should be able to roughly estimate the total numbers for the different countries from that information I think. I read somewhere that modeling suggested between 5 and 10 times more than the number of cases confirmed. That being said, it certainly varies from country to country, which explains why Italy is at 11 death per 100 cases confirmed, while Germany is at something like 14 death for 7000 people diagnosed. The difference in care is a factor but it's certainly mostly about diagnosis discrepancy. One could start out with a country like South Korea which conducted a whooping 400k tests and reported 8326 total cases and 74 total deaths. That suggests a 0,88% deathrate over a reasonable sample size. If that formula is correct, you can multiply deaths by 113 to find the total number of cases. Of course, there are other very important factors as well, like how well the healthcare is coping with the situation, if risk groups are protected well and the age and health of the population to begin with. The death numbers and the way they are reportetd may not be 100% comparable either.
Your estimation is just bad. For it to hold each and everone that has been infected would have to survive.
The reality is that most people that are tested positive in a mass test today are newly infected mild cases and whether they become severe cases or even die will show in the next few weeks. Comparing those people to the deaths - who are mostly people that have been infected weeks ago when the number of infected was only a fraction of the currently infected - is just wrong.
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You could add this to the thread message at the top so that people don't post the numbers over and over. I'm not dissuading numbers like X amount of deaths or new cases in X or Y region etc. Just so you can get a full list of the stats and each country and whether it is slowing down in X country or ramping up etc.
https://www.coronatracker.com/
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On March 17 2020 15:51 Kipsate wrote:
Speaking of using the army, is it like a South Korean thing to just use the army for civil stuff (e.g. production of masks or setting up hospitals).
I dont think the army does much of anything here and It feels like they could help a lot. Even if it is just doing groceries for the eldery or something, I know its not neccesarily their job, but drastic times ask for drastic measures.
It's similar here in Singapore. When the government urgently needs manual labour, our conscripted 19-21 year olds often are tapped upon. Last month, 1500 of them were suddenly made to help pack 5.2million masks into packets of 4 around the clock to be distributed free to all households in Singapore.
Sometimes if there's need for ushering duties etc, they can also be activated. It's considered a form of national service. My personal experience 10 years ago was actually to simulate being one of the parliamentary guest of honour during our National Day rehearsal. It could be this random, but if the nation needs some manpower, non essential military training/work could be shelved aside for it.
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On March 17 2020 19:27 Big J wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2020 18:19 Slydie wrote:On March 17 2020 17:00 Biff The Understudy wrote:On March 17 2020 16:48 Elroi wrote:
I wonder what the real numbers are. If we knew how many tests countries are doing - i e in Sweden we only test patients at the hospital who have severe (but not necessarily critical) symptoms. Smart people should be able to roughly estimate the total numbers for the different countries from that information I think. I read somewhere that modeling suggested between 5 and 10 times more than the number of cases confirmed. That being said, it certainly varies from country to country, which explains why Italy is at 11 death per 100 cases confirmed, while Germany is at something like 14 death for 7000 people diagnosed. The difference in care is a factor but it's certainly mostly about diagnosis discrepancy. One could start out with a country like South Korea which conducted a whooping 400k tests and reported 8326 total cases and 74 total deaths. That suggests a 0,88% deathrate over a reasonable sample size. If that formula is correct, you can multiply deaths by 113 to find the total number of cases. Of course, there are other very important factors as well, like how well the healthcare is coping with the situation, if risk groups are protected well and the age and health of the population to begin with. The death numbers and the way they are reportetd may not be 100% comparable either. Your estimation is just bad. For it to hold each and everone that has been infected would have to survive. The reality is that most people that are tested positive in a mass test today are newly infected mild cases and whether they become severe cases or even die will show in the next few weeks. Comparing those people to the deaths - who are mostly people that have been infected weeks ago when the number of infected was only a fraction of the currently infected - is just wrong.
The goal that was mention was if it would be possible to use the death number to calculate the true number of cases, including mild ones. Starting with the country which did the most testing should be the right way to go about that.
I can add to the story that acording to worldometer, the total deaths are 81 now, and the serious cases 59. Of course it would be ideal to calculate when all cases are resolved, but that is obviously not possible right now.
*If the mods want to create a general Corona thread apart from this personal one that is fine, but I personally don't mind having all discussion on this topic in a single place. What measures countries are taking and what have worked elsewhere is also extremely interconnected.
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On March 17 2020 03:16 Yurie wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2020 03:09 LegalLord wrote:On March 17 2020 02:25 Dan HH wrote:On March 17 2020 01:44 KwarK wrote:
My work is still having everyone come in, even people who could remote, but has a new policy of 2 weeks paid sick leave for Corona. Mine asked me to work from home and changed the schedule for those that can't so they don't have to commute at peak hours, and this is in a country with fairly antiquated practices. My job is giving the option to work from home for everyone, but recommending that everyone go to work unless they're sick. Seems like just about everyone is staying home, thankfully. Same thing here, except people show up since it was implied one should. Honestly thought they would send white collar workers home to decrease chance of infecting blue collar workers (and production tied white collar).
K, got sent home today in Stockholm, Sweden area. Will see for how long. Heard others in the company had initial time for 2 weeks, didn't hear a timeline at my place though.
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Czech Republic12129 Posts
On March 17 2020 19:25 FBTsingLoong wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2020 19:10 deacon.frost wrote:On March 17 2020 18:19 Slydie wrote:On March 17 2020 17:00 Biff The Understudy wrote:On March 17 2020 16:48 Elroi wrote:
I wonder what the real numbers are. If we knew how many tests countries are doing - i e in Sweden we only test patients at the hospital who have severe (but not necessarily critical) symptoms. Smart people should be able to roughly estimate the total numbers for the different countries from that information I think. I read somewhere that modeling suggested between 5 and 10 times more than the number of cases confirmed. That being said, it certainly varies from country to country, which explains why Italy is at 11 death per 100 cases confirmed, while Germany is at something like 14 death for 7000 people diagnosed. The difference in care is a factor but it's certainly mostly about diagnosis discrepancy. One could start out with a country like South Korea which conducted a whooping 400k tests and reported 8326 total cases and 74 total deaths. That suggests a 0,88% deathrate over a reasonable sample size. If that formula is correct, you can multiply deaths by 113 to find the total number of cases. Of course, there are other very important factors as well, like how well the healthcare is coping with the situation, if risk groups are protected well and the age and health of the population to begin with. The death numbers and the way they are reportetd may not be 100% comparable either. EDIT: I also have to admit that the over 300 deaths in one day in Italy is too much, I hope it slows down soon! However, mass testing and pinpoint quarentieenes seem to be the solution, not lockdowns and travel bans. #Ihavebeentested should be started to try to get rid of potential stigma. Italian healthcare collapsed, so the Korean numbers are not usable for Italy. I hope they can get better soon. edit - that\s based on the news reporting Italian doctors have to choose who to save and who to let die. China has sent 2 teams of specialists and some medical supplies to Italy,I think there will be more.The situation in Italy is just what Wuhan was 2 months ago.
I hope so. It's sad that the biggest help to Italy AFAIK has been sent from China and not from the EU  (this isn't pissing on the help, just that EU should have helped and acted more if the member has this SHTF situation)
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On March 17 2020 20:32 deacon.frost wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2020 19:25 FBTsingLoong wrote:On March 17 2020 19:10 deacon.frost wrote:On March 17 2020 18:19 Slydie wrote:On March 17 2020 17:00 Biff The Understudy wrote:On March 17 2020 16:48 Elroi wrote:
I wonder what the real numbers are. If we knew how many tests countries are doing - i e in Sweden we only test patients at the hospital who have severe (but not necessarily critical) symptoms. Smart people should be able to roughly estimate the total numbers for the different countries from that information I think. I read somewhere that modeling suggested between 5 and 10 times more than the number of cases confirmed. That being said, it certainly varies from country to country, which explains why Italy is at 11 death per 100 cases confirmed, while Germany is at something like 14 death for 7000 people diagnosed. The difference in care is a factor but it's certainly mostly about diagnosis discrepancy. One could start out with a country like South Korea which conducted a whooping 400k tests and reported 8326 total cases and 74 total deaths. That suggests a 0,88% deathrate over a reasonable sample size. If that formula is correct, you can multiply deaths by 113 to find the total number of cases. Of course, there are other very important factors as well, like how well the healthcare is coping with the situation, if risk groups are protected well and the age and health of the population to begin with. The death numbers and the way they are reportetd may not be 100% comparable either. EDIT: I also have to admit that the over 300 deaths in one day in Italy is too much, I hope it slows down soon! However, mass testing and pinpoint quarentieenes seem to be the solution, not lockdowns and travel bans. #Ihavebeentested should be started to try to get rid of potential stigma. Italian healthcare collapsed, so the Korean numbers are not usable for Italy. I hope they can get better soon. edit - that\s based on the news reporting Italian doctors have to choose who to save and who to let die. China has sent 2 teams of specialists and some medical supplies to Italy,I think there will be more.The situation in Italy is just what Wuhan was 2 months ago. I hope so. It's sad that the biggest help to Italy AFAIK has been sent from China and not from the EU (this isn't pissing on the help, just that EU should have helped and acted more if the member has this SHTF situation) The issue kinda is that everyone has this same problem. Countries need their own medical personal to deal with this.
China is over their peak and can afford to spare some personal.
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On March 17 2020 20:32 deacon.frost wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2020 19:25 FBTsingLoong wrote:On March 17 2020 19:10 deacon.frost wrote:On March 17 2020 18:19 Slydie wrote:On March 17 2020 17:00 Biff The Understudy wrote:On March 17 2020 16:48 Elroi wrote:
I wonder what the real numbers are. If we knew how many tests countries are doing - i e in Sweden we only test patients at the hospital who have severe (but not necessarily critical) symptoms. Smart people should be able to roughly estimate the total numbers for the different countries from that information I think. I read somewhere that modeling suggested between 5 and 10 times more than the number of cases confirmed. That being said, it certainly varies from country to country, which explains why Italy is at 11 death per 100 cases confirmed, while Germany is at something like 14 death for 7000 people diagnosed. The difference in care is a factor but it's certainly mostly about diagnosis discrepancy. One could start out with a country like South Korea which conducted a whooping 400k tests and reported 8326 total cases and 74 total deaths. That suggests a 0,88% deathrate over a reasonable sample size. If that formula is correct, you can multiply deaths by 113 to find the total number of cases. Of course, there are other very important factors as well, like how well the healthcare is coping with the situation, if risk groups are protected well and the age and health of the population to begin with. The death numbers and the way they are reportetd may not be 100% comparable either. EDIT: I also have to admit that the over 300 deaths in one day in Italy is too much, I hope it slows down soon! However, mass testing and pinpoint quarentieenes seem to be the solution, not lockdowns and travel bans. #Ihavebeentested should be started to try to get rid of potential stigma. Italian healthcare collapsed, so the Korean numbers are not usable for Italy. I hope they can get better soon. edit - that\s based on the news reporting Italian doctors have to choose who to save and who to let die. China has sent 2 teams of specialists and some medical supplies to Italy,I think there will be more.The situation in Italy is just what Wuhan was 2 months ago. I hope so. It's sad that the biggest help to Italy AFAIK has been sent from China and not from the EU (this isn't pissing on the help, just that EU should have helped and acted more if the member has this SHTF situation)
The countries nearest to Italy are busy dealing with their own stuff of not becoming Italy 2.0 I guess
EDIT: Think positive:
I've seen pictures from Venezia where the canals are clean and full of fish. And Shanghai and Beijing have seen a clear sky for the first time since ever. Nature makes quite a comeback
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On March 17 2020 18:19 Slydie wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2020 17:00 Biff The Understudy wrote:On March 17 2020 16:48 Elroi wrote:
I wonder what the real numbers are. If we knew how many tests countries are doing - i e in Sweden we only test patients at the hospital who have severe (but not necessarily critical) symptoms. Smart people should be able to roughly estimate the total numbers for the different countries from that information I think. I read somewhere that modeling suggested between 5 and 10 times more than the number of cases confirmed. That being said, it certainly varies from country to country, which explains why Italy is at 11 death per 100 cases confirmed, while Germany is at something like 14 death for 7000 people diagnosed. The difference in care is a factor but it's certainly mostly about diagnosis discrepancy. One could start out with a country like South Korea which conducted a whooping 400k tests and reported 8326 total cases and 74 total deaths. That suggests a 0,88% deathrate over a reasonable sample size. If that formula is correct, you can multiply deaths by 113 to find the total number of cases. Of course, there are other very important factors as well, like how well the healthcare is coping with the situation, if risk groups are protected well and the age and health of the population to begin with. The death numbers and the way they are reportetd may not be 100% comparable either. EDIT: I also have to admit that the over 300 deaths in one day in Italy is too much, I hope it slows down soon! However, mass testing and pinpoint quarentieenes seem to be the solution, not lockdowns and travel bans. #Ihavebeentested should be started to try to get rid of potential stigma.
Lockdowns and travel bans are absolutely essential, according to an overwhelming majority of experts and government agencies.
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EPT
