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Dutch PM Rutte gave a national address (first time a dutch PM did that since 1973...) which was quite somber.
Basically says that the scientists agree that it's inevitable that a large part of the population will get the virus at this point. Our strategy will be to reduce contact as to slow the spread and the main goal is to not overwhelm hospitals. But that basically with no vaccine on the horizon it's impossible to stop the virus, since it would require people not leaving their house for more than a year. Our best hope is for healthy people to go through it and become immune after, and slowly build up group immunity while taking caution to keep the vulnerable out of harms way.
I don't know what this means in reality but it does not fill me with much hope
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That's a decent idea, but it only works if you can control the flow of sick people reasonably well. But so far, that hasn't really happened anywhere, and I think it's rather naive to think we have enough control to start doing this.
And why is there no mention of the feasibility of quarantine until a vaccine is created? Could be really long, but simple calculations show that using max ICU beds for 4 years would allow 70% of the population to build up resistance...
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On March 17 2020 06:55 aseq wrote:
That's a decent idea, but it only works if you can control the flow of sick people reasonably well. But so far, that hasn't really happened anywhere, and I think it's rather naive to think we have enough control to start doing this.
And why is there no mention of the feasibility of quarantine until a vaccine is created? Could be really long, but simple calculations show that using max ICU beds for 4 years would allow 70% of the population to build up resistance... You want to completely quarantine a country for 1 to 2 years?
How, and is anything going to be left at the end?
In all the countries where containment has been lost, which is most countries really, there is no possibility of actually stopping the spread. Slowing it to a manageable level and waiting for it to be over is the only option left for most.
And yes China apparently did it, by quarantining the Hubei province, which is over 4x the size of the Netherlands.
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On March 17 2020 05:46 Gorsameth wrote:The entire issue with what he does it that he ignores the incubation period. If you stop the spread just before your overwhelmed you get overwhelmed because its another ~2 weeks before you see the actual effects of the quarantine halting spread. Your not dealing with the infected population now, your pre-empting what your infected population will be in 2 weeks, remembering that the amount of cases grows exponentially and looks to double every 3-4 days. That is where Italy screwed up and potentially France & Spain (not sure what the current situation is in in both).
No, the incubation time is UP TO 2 weeks, not a 2-week ticking bomb. Lockdown effects have immediate impact.
No, locking down a country for 2 months+ is not an option, the economic and social impact will be far too high, and the entire society will be at the brink of collapse.
That's a decent idea, but it only works if you can control the flow of sick people reasonably well. But so far, that hasn't really happened anywhere, and I think it's rather naive to think we have enough control to start doing this.
Taiwan has done this perfectly. There are plenty of articles you can look up easily.
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Situation here is:
8 March - 4 cases of coronavirus
10 March - 2 more
11 March - 1 more and 1 death (woman)
12 March - 16 more
13 March - 7 more <-------- lockdown announced
14 March - 10 more and 2nd death (woman's husband)
15 March - 8 more
16 March - 10 more
Let's see if lockdown will give results in 1-2 weeks.
Confirmed: Children recover from coronavirus better than adults
Children with COVID-19 show less severe symptoms than adults, study confirms
From CNN’s Gina Yu
Children in China infected with novel coronavirus showed less severe symptoms than adults, though infants and toddlers were vulnerable to moderate and severe infection, according to a new study published online in the medical journal Pediatrics on Monday.
The study examined 731 confirmed and 1,412 suspected cases of COVID-19 in children. Out of the combined 2,143 cases, one child, a 14-year-old boy, died and nearly 6% of cases were severe, compared with 18.5% of adults experiencing severe symptoms.
Young children, particularly infants, were vulnerable to COVID-19 infection, the authors of the study said. Nearly 11% of cases were severe and critical for infants less than 1 year old.
More than 90% of all pediatric patients were asymptomatic, showing mild or common forms of illness. About 13% of patients who tested positive for the virus did not show symptoms of illness.
Researchers remain unsure why children with COVID-19 were not as ill as adults.
Source: BBC
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Young people are more resistant to disease and recover quicker.
Is this not the most basic common knowledge? There's a reason why schools will be the first place where vaccines will be shipped and its because young people are vectors and not victims for infectious disease.
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On March 17 2020 07:51 Sermokala wrote:
Young people are more resistant to disease and recover quicker.
Is this not the most basic common knowledge? There's a reason why schools will be the first place where vaccines will be shipped and its because young people are vectors and not victims for infectious disease.
Spanish flu says hi. It killed 50-100 million people and its main target was 20-40 year old people. It's said that it made immune system overreact, so that's how it killed strong, healthy people. Coronavirus is the opposite, it kills people with weaker immune system. You can never predict viruses.
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On March 17 2020 06:11 Nouar wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2020 05:18 Gorsameth wrote:On March 17 2020 04:15 iFU.pauline wrote:
Confinement for France official. God fuck I can't stand Macron keeps repeating we are at war and talks like fucking Zola Are you from France? I saw somewhere, cant remember if it was here or on another site, that apparently hospitals in the north of France at at/near capacity? Could get ugly situations if that's the case and make these measures likely to late. In the east. We are deploying an army field hospital to help, and the army will assist in Moving patients to areas with free beds.
I live and Paris' suburb. I didn't like at all Macron'speech. We are forbidden to see family and relatives but can go to work. I had hopped for at least a 15 days severe lockdown to contain the virus, since hospital are starting to get full.
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On March 17 2020 08:05 Mun_Su wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2020 06:11 Nouar wrote:On March 17 2020 05:18 Gorsameth wrote:On March 17 2020 04:15 iFU.pauline wrote:
Confinement for France official. God fuck I can't stand Macron keeps repeating we are at war and talks like fucking Zola Are you from France? I saw somewhere, cant remember if it was here or on another site, that apparently hospitals in the north of France at at/near capacity? Could get ugly situations if that's the case and make these measures likely to late. In the east. We are deploying an army field hospital to help, and the army will assist in Moving patients to areas with free beds. I live and Paris' suburb. I didn't like at all Macron'speech. We are forbidden to see family and relatives but can go to work. I had hopped for at least a 15 days severe lockdown to contain the virus, since hospital are starting to get full.
Friend of mine has a coworker who told him that streets in paris are beeing roadblocked by the army now with tanks. Wild story... can you confirm?
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On March 17 2020 08:14 Cele wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2020 08:05 Mun_Su wrote:On March 17 2020 06:11 Nouar wrote:On March 17 2020 05:18 Gorsameth wrote:On March 17 2020 04:15 iFU.pauline wrote:
Confinement for France official. God fuck I can't stand Macron keeps repeating we are at war and talks like fucking Zola Are you from France? I saw somewhere, cant remember if it was here or on another site, that apparently hospitals in the north of France at at/near capacity? Could get ugly situations if that's the case and make these measures likely to late. In the east. We are deploying an army field hospital to help, and the army will assist in Moving patients to areas with free beds. I live and Paris' suburb. I didn't like at all Macron'speech. We are forbidden to see family and relatives but can go to work. I had hopped for at least a 15 days severe lockdown to contain the virus, since hospital are starting to get full. Friend of mine has a coworker who told him that streets in paris are beeing roadblocked by the army now with tanks. Wild story... can you confirm?
France doesn't have the right to use the army unless civil Law enforcement is overwhelmed. Source : me, in the army. It's a 2016 Law.
There were some videos of troop trucks and med trucks going around. Some Scorpion as well but i can't date the pictures and it sounds fishy.
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On March 17 2020 07:51 Sermokala wrote:
Young people are more resistant to disease and recover quicker.
Is this not the most basic common knowledge? There's a reason why schools will be the first place where vaccines will be shipped and its because young people are vectors and not victims for infectious disease.
That's mostly true of respiratory infections, it would take some serious dedication for 6th graders to get clogged arteries and lung damage worth 20 years of smoking, but I'm not sure I follow the vaccine shipping argument. Smallpox predominantly affected children and vaccination efforts were of course focused on them, why wouldn't they?
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I am doing research in a pharmacology lab and my entire university just shut down. All non-essential research activities have been suspended, which is an unprecedented step here. We even have an "oh shit worst-case scenario" for every lab in case it gets to that point; to cryogenically preserve whatever samples they can, then to euthanize all animals/destroy all cell cultures and completely lock down the labs with no one allowed to enter.
This shit is wild.
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Welp, there's no more work so my employer is shutting down shop temporarily... I was looking for something else anyway but I can't imagine there won't be very many openings for what I do anytime soon. This sucks.
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On March 17 2020 07:04 Gorsameth wrote:
You want to completely quarantine a country for 1 to 2 years?
How, and is anything going to be left at the end?
In all the countries where containment has been lost, which is most countries really, there is no possibility of actually stopping the spread. Slowing it to a manageable level and waiting for it to be over is the only option left for most.
And yes China apparently did it, by quarantining the Hubei province, which is over 4x the size of the Netherlands.
2 weeks ought to be plenty, so long as people respect it and distancing protocols/hygiene/etc are followed afterwards - might even outright stop it. South Korea, Singapore, Japan (despite the... questionable handling of the ship quarantine), Taiwan - they're all managing. Might have something to do with the general population taking it seriously. I don't really watch local TV programs/read newspapers/etc, so I'm not aware what the public at large knows about this.
Edit:
Hopefully haven't missed this:
https://www.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/fjj0lr/megathread_covid19sarscov2_march_16th_2020/fkog5i4/
Source chain in case of post delete:
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-most-contagious-before-during-first-week-symptoms (down for me right now)
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.05.20030502v1
tl:dr - by the time you're showing symptoms, you're way less contagious.
Corrected (pointed out below): before and during the 1st week of symptoms appears to be most contagious period, easily detectable via throat/nose swabs.
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Well, it's St. Patrick's day tomorrow.
It's going to be an absolute shitshow for any city which has not closed doors. Drunk people know no limits, and I'm fully expecting there to be a gigantic escalation in cases with some super spreader in a bar, probably coughing into a plate of nachos.
Yeah, it'd fucking suck for the bars to close tomorrow, because of the revenue they lose, but if they stay open, the outbreak is going to be completely uncontrollable next week.
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This is not what the study shows at all. The title of the layperson-focused article is "Coronavirus is most contagious before and during the first week of symptoms". This is the opposite of your tldr. Read the sources more and reddit less, and do not spread misinformation in a crisis.
What the study shows is that towards the tail of the infection you may still have viral RNA but no viable virus, suggesting that we might be able to release cases slightly sooner. It absolutely does not show that you are less infectious when you have symptoms. In fact, at the onset of symptoms you may be maximally infectious. This is true of many cold/flu type viruses.
If you summarise, do it accurately.
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On March 17 2020 10:26 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2020 09:20 Djzapz wrote:
Welp, there's no more work so my employer is shutting down shop temporarily... I was looking for something else anyway but I can't imagine there won't be very many openings for what I do anytime soon. This sucks. Depending on your preference if you know any people with Children and both work at jobs that are not shutting down need someone. I know 4 couples who have no idea what they are going to after this week.
Good idea but I'm not quite at that point yet. Also for the short term I'm self-isolated anyhow.
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On March 14 2020 19:52 FBTsingLoong wrote:Show nested quote +On March 14 2020 19:02 BlackJack wrote:
I've been coming down with illness several days after both myself and my girlfriend have had contact with corona positive patients at work. I feel very feverish although my highest temp has only been 100.4 F. I've felt feverish maybe 3 times in my adult life so it's been alarming to me. Fortunately my symptoms seem to be a lot of upper respiratory - sore throat, nasal congestion, cough, headache, which seems more like flu than COVID Though nasal congestion is not a common symptom of Corona,but in China some Corona patients have it.I think you‘d better have a test,after all you had contact with infected people.
Finally got tested today after my manager informed me of a location doing drive-thru testing. Just been sheltering in place here until I get the clear to go back to work, hopefully soon.
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On March 17 2020 11:09 Belisarius wrote:This is not what the study shows at all. The title of the layperson-focused article is "Coronavirus is most contagious before and during the first week of symptoms". This is the opposite of your tldr. Read the sources more and reddit less, and do not spread misinformation in a crisis. What the study shows is that towards the tail of the infection you may still have viral RNA but no viable virus, suggesting that we might be able to release cases slightly sooner. It absolutely does not show that you are less infectious when you have symptoms. In fact, at the onset of symptoms you may be maximally infectious. This is true of many cold/flu type viruses. If you summarise, do it accurately.
Fixed, sorry. I was discussing that a few hours before and used this as an argument to get the point across that the disease is highly contagious even when you seem to be fine, must've shifted my perception. Given the severity of your response, eh... sorry again o_O
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EPT
