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France12907 Posts
On March 17 2020 20:32 deacon.frost wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2020 19:25 FBTsingLoong wrote:On March 17 2020 19:10 deacon.frost wrote:On March 17 2020 18:19 Slydie wrote:On March 17 2020 17:00 Biff The Understudy wrote:On March 17 2020 16:48 Elroi wrote:
I wonder what the real numbers are. If we knew how many tests countries are doing - i e in Sweden we only test patients at the hospital who have severe (but not necessarily critical) symptoms. Smart people should be able to roughly estimate the total numbers for the different countries from that information I think. I read somewhere that modeling suggested between 5 and 10 times more than the number of cases confirmed. That being said, it certainly varies from country to country, which explains why Italy is at 11 death per 100 cases confirmed, while Germany is at something like 14 death for 7000 people diagnosed. The difference in care is a factor but it's certainly mostly about diagnosis discrepancy. One could start out with a country like South Korea which conducted a whooping 400k tests and reported 8326 total cases and 74 total deaths. That suggests a 0,88% deathrate over a reasonable sample size. If that formula is correct, you can multiply deaths by 113 to find the total number of cases. Of course, there are other very important factors as well, like how well the healthcare is coping with the situation, if risk groups are protected well and the age and health of the population to begin with. The death numbers and the way they are reportetd may not be 100% comparable either. EDIT: I also have to admit that the over 300 deaths in one day in Italy is too much, I hope it slows down soon! However, mass testing and pinpoint quarentieenes seem to be the solution, not lockdowns and travel bans. #Ihavebeentested should be started to try to get rid of potential stigma. Italian healthcare collapsed, so the Korean numbers are not usable for Italy. I hope they can get better soon. edit - that\s based on the news reporting Italian doctors have to choose who to save and who to let die. China has sent 2 teams of specialists and some medical supplies to Italy,I think there will be more.The situation in Italy is just what Wuhan was 2 months ago. I hope so. It's sad that the biggest help to Italy AFAIK has been sent from China and not from the EU  (this isn't pissing on the help, just that EU should have helped and acted more if the member has this SHTF situation)
Well we are in need of help ourselves so it's hard to send help? Plus I think many supplies are produced by China in the first place?
My gf still had to go to work today in spite of being a dev working on a laptop, but hopefully she'll be able to work from home from now on, especially with the lockdown started.
I really hope that the situation won't be too bad 10 days from now, but we'll see...
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Hope they sell them somewhere and then get caught... unbelievable
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On March 17 2020 20:44 Biff The Understudy wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2020 18:19 Slydie wrote:On March 17 2020 17:00 Biff The Understudy wrote:On March 17 2020 16:48 Elroi wrote:
I wonder what the real numbers are. If we knew how many tests countries are doing - i e in Sweden we only test patients at the hospital who have severe (but not necessarily critical) symptoms. Smart people should be able to roughly estimate the total numbers for the different countries from that information I think. I read somewhere that modeling suggested between 5 and 10 times more than the number of cases confirmed. That being said, it certainly varies from country to country, which explains why Italy is at 11 death per 100 cases confirmed, while Germany is at something like 14 death for 7000 people diagnosed. The difference in care is a factor but it's certainly mostly about diagnosis discrepancy. One could start out with a country like South Korea which conducted a whooping 400k tests and reported 8326 total cases and 74 total deaths. That suggests a 0,88% deathrate over a reasonable sample size. If that formula is correct, you can multiply deaths by 113 to find the total number of cases. Of course, there are other very important factors as well, like how well the healthcare is coping with the situation, if risk groups are protected well and the age and health of the population to begin with. The death numbers and the way they are reportetd may not be 100% comparable either. EDIT: I also have to admit that the over 300 deaths in one day in Italy is too much, I hope it slows down soon! However, mass testing and pinpoint quarentieenes seem to be the solution, not lockdowns and travel bans. #Ihavebeentested should be started to try to get rid of potential stigma. Lockdowns and travel bans are absolutely essential, according to an overwhelming majority of experts and government agencies.
most experts and agencies i have seen that are advocating for lockdowns were people in the field of medicine or a related industry. any decision to lockdown a country should be deliberated upon heavily by governments and rightfully so; i doubt youd find many economists etc saying a lockdown is the way to go about this
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nvm stupid comment
All I want to say is that this is unbelievable and I suspect solely motivated by greed.
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Can anyone point me to an explanation as to why walking in a park is barred too? In general I would have thought it's highly unlikely you'd catch anything out in the open, as long as you don't stop to chat with other people.
Starting tomorrow, my 5-year-old will be at home as well as my 1-year-old who always is, and my husband and I both working from home.. they'll wreck the house and burn it down if we cannot take them out in shifts.
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which country you're residing in would be important for that.
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On March 17 2020 21:18 Gina wrote:
Can anyone point me to an explanation as to why walking in a park is barred too? In general I would have thought it's highly unlikely you'd catch anything out in the open, as long as you don't stop to chat with other people.
Starting tomorrow, my 5-year-old will be at home as well as my 1-year-old who always is, and my husband and I both working from home.. they'll wreck the house and burn it down if we cannot take them out in shifts.
They are afraid the virus can stick to surfaces. It is the same in my area, and honestly it does not make any sense with the situation very much under control. Even shutting down schools have limited effect for flu at least. Norway is indeed considering to reopen some soon.
There is no other option than comply, do indoor activities and order Netflix.
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Oh, I meant from a medical point of view, not legal.
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On March 17 2020 21:18 Gina wrote:
Can anyone point me to an explanation as to why walking in a park is barred too? In general I would have thought it's highly unlikely you'd catch anything out in the open, as long as you don't stop to chat with other people.
Over here, since the schools are closed, parks and playgrounds are overrun with children and families... Kinda not what was supposed to happen. Maybe that's it.
I just went shopping, everything is there again, but certain kinds of noodles and there's only one brand of TP. Everybody seems to bring their coughing children to the store, which sucks, but most likely can't be avoided... I also think it's possible to teach a 8+ year old, to cough into their elbow. -,- At least try.
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On March 17 2020 21:28 r00ty wrote:
Over here, since the schools are closed, parks and playgrounds are overrun with children and families... Kinda not what was supposed to happen. Maybe that's it.
I just went shopping, everything is there again, but certain kinds of noodles and there's only one brand of TP. Everybody seems to bring their coughing children to the store, which sucks, but most likely can't be avoided... I also think it's possible to teach a 8+ year old, to cough into their elbow. -,- At least try.
Yesterday there were like 500+ people at our local ice cream parlor... people are just that stupid.
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On March 17 2020 21:18 Gina wrote:
Can anyone point me to an explanation as to why walking in a park is barred too? In general I would have thought it's highly unlikely you'd catch anything out in the open, as long as you don't stop to chat with other people.
Starting tomorrow, my 5-year-old will be at home as well as my 1-year-old who always is, and my husband and I both working from home.. they'll wreck the house and burn it down if we cannot take them out in shifts.
Inside, outside doesn't matter if someone coughs on you (or the children playing with one another cough on one another, or cough on their hands and then smear it all over the slide, which the next kid then smears all over his face).
The point is to reduce all social contact as much as possible. Not much point shutting down schools if the children then get together to mingle their germs in the park instead of the classroom. Not to say I don't sympathize with you. Small children must be going completely mad locked up inside for days on end.
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While it hasn't been tested in humans (obviously), it has been tested in culture and it manages to infect the cells there after 2-3 days of sitting on metal surfaces, making it highly likely it could do the same in humans.
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My friend's girlfriend works in a hospital and she says there's extra security around the storage rooms because there have been many cases of people walking into hospitals specifically to grab boxes of masks and other supplies. Very disappointing.
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I had ordered some lamps whose manufacturer is in Italy, and I got a call today that truck is prevented from leaving border, so there you go. Even items can't be dispatched now. I'd wait because it's worth it though. 
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Thanks everyone. We're keeping away from playgrounds naturally, but there's this wood where you can see about 2 people in half an hour, will try retreating there.
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The last decade, the french policy has been to reduce the healthcare system, Macron is obviously on this trend, I hope it serves as a lesson.
Anyway, there is still a heavy lack of masks in the hospitals like at Strasbourg according to some very angry doctors.
Edit : my sister in law has fainted this morning, she is immunocompromised but the medics didn't send her to hospital to avoid congestions in hospital...
She isn't even tested.
For god sake, this is a disaster, fuck all the criminals who reduced the funds on healthcare.
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Northern Ireland26225 Posts
On March 17 2020 21:31 Harris1st wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2020 21:28 r00ty wrote:
Over here, since the schools are closed, parks and playgrounds are overrun with children and families... Kinda not what was supposed to happen. Maybe that's it.
I just went shopping, everything is there again, but certain kinds of noodles and there's only one brand of TP. Everybody seems to bring their coughing children to the store, which sucks, but most likely can't be avoided... I also think it's possible to teach a 8+ year old, to cough into their elbow. -,- At least try. Yesterday there were like 500+ people at our local ice cream parlor... people are just that stupid.
Even in ‘peacetime’, why entire families go out for the regular grocery shop blows my mind. Many things irk me in retail but that’s quite high up the list.
Different when a single parent, or one of you is working obviously. It’ll probably get worse as people will drag their kids shopping just to get them out of the house.
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Czech Republic12129 Posts
On March 17 2020 20:41 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2020 20:32 deacon.frost wrote:On March 17 2020 19:25 FBTsingLoong wrote:On March 17 2020 19:10 deacon.frost wrote:On March 17 2020 18:19 Slydie wrote:On March 17 2020 17:00 Biff The Understudy wrote:On March 17 2020 16:48 Elroi wrote:
I wonder what the real numbers are. If we knew how many tests countries are doing - i e in Sweden we only test patients at the hospital who have severe (but not necessarily critical) symptoms. Smart people should be able to roughly estimate the total numbers for the different countries from that information I think. I read somewhere that modeling suggested between 5 and 10 times more than the number of cases confirmed. That being said, it certainly varies from country to country, which explains why Italy is at 11 death per 100 cases confirmed, while Germany is at something like 14 death for 7000 people diagnosed. The difference in care is a factor but it's certainly mostly about diagnosis discrepancy. One could start out with a country like South Korea which conducted a whooping 400k tests and reported 8326 total cases and 74 total deaths. That suggests a 0,88% deathrate over a reasonable sample size. If that formula is correct, you can multiply deaths by 113 to find the total number of cases. Of course, there are other very important factors as well, like how well the healthcare is coping with the situation, if risk groups are protected well and the age and health of the population to begin with. The death numbers and the way they are reportetd may not be 100% comparable either. EDIT: I also have to admit that the over 300 deaths in one day in Italy is too much, I hope it slows down soon! However, mass testing and pinpoint quarentieenes seem to be the solution, not lockdowns and travel bans. #Ihavebeentested should be started to try to get rid of potential stigma. Italian healthcare collapsed, so the Korean numbers are not usable for Italy. I hope they can get better soon. edit - that\s based on the news reporting Italian doctors have to choose who to save and who to let die. China has sent 2 teams of specialists and some medical supplies to Italy,I think there will be more.The situation in Italy is just what Wuhan was 2 months ago. I hope so. It's sad that the biggest help to Italy AFAIK has been sent from China and not from the EU (this isn't pissing on the help, just that EU should have helped and acted more if the member has this SHTF situation) The issue kinda is that everyone has this same problem. Countries need their own medical personal to deal with this. China is over their peak and can afford to spare some personal.
I get this, but at the same time the chief of EU was telling us that closing borders and using quarantine is a bad practice and she was critizing it. This was the time to show all the anti-EU folks that EU can handle things fast and decisive. Up until yesterday all we heard was 'closing borders bad' while the virus was spreading. Had we acted sooner we would have had the means to help iTaly as Italy would be the only place with issues.
Edit>
+ Show Spoiler + Brusel dává přednost zdravotním kontrolám na hranicích, pro které připraví společnou unijní strategii, uvedla předsedkyně EK. Komise je podle ní v kontaktu se členskými zeměmi a chce je přesvědčit o tom, aby volily „přiměřená opatření“.
„Co můžeme udělat a co bychom měli udělat, je provádět kontroly zdravotního stavu, ať již na vnějších hranicích, na vnitřních hranicích nebo v rámci území členských států,“ míní šéfka unijní exekutivy.
Rough translation - brusel prefers better health checks on the borders(than closing borders - translators input), for which Brusel will prepare a united strategy, said the chairwoman of European Comission. Comission is in contact with the countries and wants them persuade to choose "appropriate measures".
"What can we do and what shall we do is to do health checks on both the inner nad outer borders or inside the EU countries" thinks the CEO of EU.
MARCH 13!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Source:: https://www.idnes.cz/zpravy/zahranicni/eu-koronavirus-ministri-vnitra-eu-chorvatsko-cesko-svedsko.A200313_112601_zahranicni_jhr
Edit2> sorry, couldn't find any english source and I am officially at work This is the most read e-newspapers in the country. They pretend to be serious.
Edit 3> I am nowhere near a good translator and generally translating English -> our bad journalists -> Czech -> mah bad English -> English isn't a good practice, I dare to call it shitty practice 
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EPT
