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Coronavirus and You - Page 205

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Any and all updates regarding the COVID-19 will need a source provided. Please do your part in helping us to keep this thread maintainable and under control.

It is YOUR responsibility to fully read through the sources that you link, and you MUST provide a brief summary explaining what the source is about. Do not expect other people to do the work for you.

Conspiracy theories and fear mongering will absolutely not be tolerated in this thread. Expect harsh mod actions if you try to incite fear needlessly.

This is not a politics thread! You are allowed to post information regarding politics if it's related to the coronavirus, but do NOT discuss politics in here.

Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better.
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
July 16 2020 22:49 GMT
#4081
--- Nuked ---
Zaros
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United Kingdom3692 Posts
July 16 2020 23:03 GMT
#4082
Seems like Public Health England has been inflating the Covid death statistics which may be why England still has 100+ deaths some days. Anyone who has ever tested positive for Covid counts as a Covid death even if they die 3 months later in a car accident.

WombaT
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Northern Ireland27235 Posts
July 16 2020 23:14 GMT
#4083
That seems, ridiculous? I’ve heard of Covid being put as the death factor when we’re talking comorbidity and people dying of other related factors and that being logged as a death.

Like that though? Very strange indeed. Especially as I’d assume the pressure from above is coming to deflate death numbers not inflate them like that.

Wouldn’t dismiss it either, stranger things have been known to happen.
'You'll always be the cuddly marsupial of my heart, despite the inherent flaws of your ancestry' - Squat
Nevuk
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
United States16280 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-07-16 23:21:41
July 16 2020 23:20 GMT
#4084
Was probably a decision that made sense initially and then stopped making sense later - like, if you over count the few people dying in car wrecks that recovered from Covid in the past two weeks, you're almost certainly more likely to still be missing more deaths from covid than you are over counting. At 3 months there are probably still people dying from complications, so it isn't as crazy as it sounds to still be doing it this way.

The only way to know fairly accurate numbers is to wait and compare deaths over a long period of time (ie, how many people died this year as opposed to last).
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
July 16 2020 23:25 GMT
#4085
--- Nuked ---
DarkPlasmaBall
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States46245 Posts
July 17 2020 00:08 GMT
#4086
On July 17 2020 07:31 Acrofales wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 17 2020 07:28 JimmiC wrote:
On July 17 2020 05:00 Freaky[x] wrote:
On July 17 2020 04:26 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
On July 17 2020 04:15 Freaky[x] wrote:
Are there any reliable sources now (wednesday) that the numbers from each hospital does not go through the CDC but straight to the WH?
I would like to know if they will cook their numbers to calm the population



Yes, many:

1. https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/07/15/891351706/white-house-strips-cdc-of-data-collection-role-for-covid-19-hospitalizations
2. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-data-cdc-hospitals-trump-administration/
3. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/14/us/politics/trump-cdc-coronavirus.html
Tons of others: https://www.google.com/search?q=hospital data white house cdc&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS837US837&oq=hospital data white house cdc&aqs=chrome..69i57j33l3.2867j1j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

And this pretty much means exactly what you're worried about: Trump is going to attempt to fake the numbers and pretend that everything's okay (or, at least, being fixed nice and quickly).


Sorry, are there any reliable source from now on ? Is there any other source that we can use?

Umm NPR is probably the most reliable source there is in the US. If not them, then who would you consider reliable?

You missed the point. NPR doesn't collect this data, they just write articles about it. If the data is unreliable, NPR can write that the data is unreliable, but that doesn't help anybody much, does it?


Ohhhhh my bad. I misread too. I thought Freaky was asking for a reliable source that corroborated the fact that the WH is taking over the data instead of the CDC, not asking if there are any reliable sources left to collect and report the coronavirus data, now that the WH is taking over. Sorry, Freaky! To that question, I actually don't know!
"There is nothing more satisfying than looking at a crowd of people and helping them get what I love." ~Day[9] Daily #100
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-07-17 01:34:27
July 17 2020 01:33 GMT
#4087
--- Nuked ---
Danglars
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States12133 Posts
July 17 2020 02:23 GMT
#4088
Deaths lag cases and AZ had a spike in cases. I thought AZ would be able to load-balance hospitals and put in place surge plans, and so far that's born out, and looks increasingly likely to be sustained with the graph I linked.

I'm not going to indulge the hysterics of anyone here that screams at the cases when they're bad and deaths aren't, then switches to screaming about the deaths when they're bad and cases aren't. That's the worst of media, and we have no use for acting like clicks and attention is all we post for.
Great armies come from happy zealots, and happy zealots come from California!
TL+ Member
WombaT
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Northern Ireland27235 Posts
July 17 2020 02:40 GMT
#4089
On July 17 2020 11:23 Danglars wrote:
Deaths lag cases and AZ had a spike in cases. I thought AZ would be able to load-balance hospitals and put in place surge plans, and so far that's born out, and looks increasingly likely to be sustained with the graph I linked.

I'm not going to indulge the hysterics of anyone here that screams at the cases when they're bad and deaths aren't, then switches to screaming about the deaths when they're bad and cases aren't. That's the worst of media, and we have no use for acting like clicks and attention is all we post for.

They’re both pretty bad to have no?

Given that recovered people may have long term health complications in all sorts of areas that weren’t previously understood earlier on in this crisis. Can still be ruinous if it’s not fatal.

We’ll see how it progresses, it would seem odd to have a country with such variable enforcement re Covid and such a reluctance culturally to wear masks, with the existing rates we’re already seeing to not have at least some uptake in the death toll.

Sure some people do stray into hysterics, absolutely. Still preferable to ‘it’s a hoax’ or that wearing masks do nothing though at this stage.
'You'll always be the cuddly marsupial of my heart, despite the inherent flaws of your ancestry' - Squat
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
July 17 2020 02:41 GMT
#4090
--- Nuked ---
Danglars
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States12133 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-07-17 03:00:33
July 17 2020 02:57 GMT
#4091
On July 17 2020 11:40 Wombat_NI wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 17 2020 11:23 Danglars wrote:
Deaths lag cases and AZ had a spike in cases. I thought AZ would be able to load-balance hospitals and put in place surge plans, and so far that's born out, and looks increasingly likely to be sustained with the graph I linked.

I'm not going to indulge the hysterics of anyone here that screams at the cases when they're bad and deaths aren't, then switches to screaming about the deaths when they're bad and cases aren't. That's the worst of media, and we have no use for acting like clicks and attention is all we post for.

They’re both pretty bad to have no?

Given that recovered people may have long term health complications in all sorts of areas that weren’t previously understood earlier on in this crisis. Can still be ruinous if it’s not fatal.

We’ll see how it progresses, it would seem odd to have a country with such variable enforcement re Covid and such a reluctance culturally to wear masks, with the existing rates we’re already seeing to not have at least some uptake in the death toll.

Sure some people do stray into hysterics, absolutely. Still preferable to ‘it’s a hoax’ or that wearing masks do nothing though at this stage.

I hope we can separate what they are and what they mean, instead of just pointing to what one's worse (How do you know case positivity and cases/100k are getting better? Everybody switched to talking about deaths!)

I don't think "preferable to "it's a hoax" is any useful standard to beat here. Do you?

On July 17 2020 11:41 JimmiC wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 17 2020 11:23 Danglars wrote:
Deaths lag cases and AZ had a spike in cases. I thought AZ would be able to load-balance hospitals and put in place surge plans, and so far that's born out, and looks increasingly likely to be sustained with the graph I linked.

I'm not going to indulge the hysterics of anyone here that screams at the cases when they're bad and deaths aren't, then switches to screaming about the deaths when they're bad and cases aren't. That's the worst of media, and we have no use for acting like clicks and attention is all we post for.

You have amazing logic, you said it was not an issue because wealths were not rising. We told you they would come. They have now came, and now dealths don’t matter.

Also the climb not continue does not mean cases have stopped it means there is still a lot of new cases every day, just it is not growing.

Also death , new cases, hospitalizations and so on are not hysterics, they are simply numbers. But you have clearly shown that you do not care about the facts only moving the goalposts.

I’m not sure what your motivations are I just wished there was not so many of you ignoring facts because that is not going to get it under control. You will back to 911 numbers daily soon enough.


Also no travel for Americans is going to be a hard pill to swallow for many, borders will be closed to the US for a long time.

When you're done complimenting my logic, reiterating that they're "simply numbers," and talking about my motivations, I'll still be here. I don't see the use for engaging with something that mundane. Also, what I said was in context with a steeply dropping median age of infected, which means higher survivability rates.
Great armies come from happy zealots, and happy zealots come from California!
TL+ Member
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
July 17 2020 03:05 GMT
#4092
--- Nuked ---
StalkerTL
Profile Joined May 2020
212 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-07-17 03:14:21
July 17 2020 03:11 GMT
#4093
Am I the only person who doesn’t care about the death rate considering this is a coronavirus with very well documented side effects even after the patient has “recovered” from the worst of it? It’s the exact same sort of symptoms as things like swine flu, only those kill a whole lot more (which is probably a good thing to limit spread) and don’t spread like this specific strain.

We’re talking about organ damage, still loss of smell and/taste weeks after the initial symptoms, chronic fatigue in even very young and healthy individuals.

The goal should to limit the risk of people getting these side effects of coronavirus, not point to a still incredibly high death rate that isn’t spiking despite the high positive rates as a sign that it’s totally safe to expose the entire population to the virus by reopening the economy completely and sending kids straight back to school.
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
July 17 2020 03:15 GMT
#4094
--- Nuked ---
Danglars
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States12133 Posts
July 17 2020 03:26 GMT
#4095
On July 17 2020 12:05 JimmiC wrote:
What helps reduce the amount dying best is not getting your entire population infected.

So I’m guessing you are against all the states reintroducing or introducing new measure, and support the Georgia governor suing the mayor of Atlanta.

When in doubt, say the other guy supports lawsuits against masks! Pandemics bring out the worst in people.

On July 17 2020 12:11 StalkerTL wrote:
Am I the only person who doesn’t care about the death rate considering this is a coronavirus with very well documented side effects even after the patient has “recovered” from the worst of it? It’s the exact same sort of symptoms as things like swine flu, only those kill a whole lot more (which is probably a good thing to limit spread) and don’t spread like this specific strain.

We’re talking about organ damage, still loss of smell and/taste weeks after the initial symptoms, chronic fatigue in even very young and healthy individuals.

The goal should to limit the risk of people getting these side effects of coronavirus, not point to a still incredibly high death rate that isn’t spiking despite the high positive rates as a sign that it’s totally safe to expose the entire population to the virus by reopening the economy completely and sending kids straight back to school.

I mean the side effects of keeping young children out of school for ages and the future of not spotting abuse, malnutrition, and the rest are a valid conversation. There's a reason the American Association of Pediatrics has pushed for schools to reopen, and it isn't because doctors suddenly came out in favor of dead or chronically ill kids.

Epidemiologists and public health officers have consistently pointed to measures designed to counter hospital overruns and mass spreading events. Kids are the group at least risk, almost vanishingly small, as well as their capacity to spread it. And I didn't see anybody arguing for "reopening the economy completely."
Great armies come from happy zealots, and happy zealots come from California!
TL+ Member
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-07-17 03:32:05
July 17 2020 03:30 GMT
#4096
--- Nuked ---
StalkerTL
Profile Joined May 2020
212 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-07-17 04:15:43
July 17 2020 03:36 GMT
#4097
The AAP’s recommendations are for kids to go back to school, only if it is safe to do so and appropriate measures are provided.

“Returning to school is important for the healthy development and well-being of children, but we must pursue re-opening in a way that is safe for all students, teachers and staff. Science should drive decision-making on safely reopening schools. Public health agencies must make recommendations based on evidence, not politics. We should leave it to health experts to tell us when the time is best to open up school buildings, and listen to educators and administrators to shape how we do it.

“Local school leaders, public health experts, educators and parents must be at the center of decisions about how and when to reopen schools, taking into account the spread of COVID-19 in their communities and the capacities of school districts to adapt safety protocols to make in-person learning safe and feasible. For instance, schools in areas with high levels of COVID-19 community spread should not be compelled to reopen against the judgment of local experts. A one-size-fits-all approach is not appropriate for return to school decisions.


No one disagrees with kids needing to go back to school. The problem is that a lot of states like Florida, Texas and Georgia are not taking a science based approach and making the handling of coronavirus entirely a political thing. Does anyone honesty believe Brian Kemp is making decisions based on expert opinion?

The problem is that politicians are not controlling coronavirus and are pressuring schools to reopen no matter what. Which is against the AAP recommendations.

Edit: As for caring about kid’s wellbeing, that was to be done at the start of the pandemic and not now. And what about the wellbeing of staff, many of whom are at risk of coronavirus? If there were only a handful of cases, then sure we can implement PPE, social distancing and in-class rotations. But numerous states in America are listing 10,000 know coronavirus cases a single day. And schools are undervalued and underfunded, are they truly going to be safe when most teachers are forced to provide their own supplies for their students? And what happens if staff get sick from coronavirus, what happens to the school at that point?
Danglars
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States12133 Posts
July 17 2020 04:39 GMT
#4098
On July 17 2020 12:30 JimmiC wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 17 2020 12:26 Danglars wrote:
On July 17 2020 12:05 JimmiC wrote:
What helps reduce the amount dying best is not getting your entire population infected.

So I’m guessing you are against all the states reintroducing or introducing new measure, and support the Georgia governor suing the mayor of Atlanta.

When in doubt, say the other guy supports lawsuits against masks! Pandemics bring out the worst in people.

On July 17 2020 12:11 StalkerTL wrote:
Am I the only person who doesn’t care about the death rate considering this is a coronavirus with very well documented side effects even after the patient has “recovered” from the worst of it? It’s the exact same sort of symptoms as things like swine flu, only those kill a whole lot more (which is probably a good thing to limit spread) and don’t spread like this specific strain.

We’re talking about organ damage, still loss of smell and/taste weeks after the initial symptoms, chronic fatigue in even very young and healthy individuals.

The goal should to limit the risk of people getting these side effects of coronavirus, not point to a still incredibly high death rate that isn’t spiking despite the high positive rates as a sign that it’s totally safe to expose the entire population to the virus by reopening the economy completely and sending kids straight back to school.

I mean the side effects of keeping young children out of school for ages and the future of not spotting abuse, malnutrition, and the rest are a valid conversation. There's a reason the American Association of Pediatrics has pushed for schools to reopen, and it isn't because doctors suddenly came out in favor of dead or chronically ill kids.

Epidemiologists and public health officers have consistently pointed to measures designed to counter hospital overruns and mass spreading events. Kids are the group at least risk, almost vanishingly small, as well as their capacity to spread it. And I didn't see anybody arguing for "reopening the economy completely."

Please do not make this political it is not the place.

You seem to be arguing me, and if it not the numbers you disagree, it was a safe presumption that it was the measures.

So let me know what you think should be the measures in these highly infected states? And what measures should not be allowed?

Oh and so you are up to date the pediatrics doctors pulled their recommendation to have schools open while cases are spiking like they are.

You lost the right to not make this political the same second you guessed I supported the GA governor. Try not to make such spurious allegations next time.

It's the behavior that must back up the words.
On July 17 2020 12:36 StalkerTL wrote:
The AAP’s recommendations are for kids to go back to school, only if it is safe to do so and appropriate measures are provided.

“Returning to school is important for the healthy development and well-being of children, but we must pursue re-opening in a way that is safe for all students, teachers and staff. Science should drive decision-making on safely reopening schools. Public health agencies must make recommendations based on evidence, not politics. We should leave it to health experts to tell us when the time is best to open up school buildings, and listen to educators and administrators to shape how we do it.

“Local school leaders, public health experts, educators and parents must be at the center of decisions about how and when to reopen schools, taking into account the spread of COVID-19 in their communities and the capacities of school districts to adapt safety protocols to make in-person learning safe and feasible. For instance, schools in areas with high levels of COVID-19 community spread should not be compelled to reopen against the judgment of local experts. A one-size-fits-all approach is not appropriate for return to school decisions.


No one disagrees with kids needing to go back to school. The problem is that a lot of states like Florida, Texas and Georgia are not taking a science based approach and making the handling of coronavirus entirely a political thing. Does anyone honesty believe Brian Kemp is making decisions based on expert opinion?

The problem is that politicians are not controlling coronavirus and are pressuring schools to reopen no matter what. Which is against the AAP recommendations.

Edit: As for caring about kid’s wellbeing, that was to be done at the start of the pandemic and not now. And what about the wellbeing of staff, many of whom are at risk of coronavirus? If there were only a handful of cases, then sure we can implement PPE, social distancing and in-class rotations. But numerous states in America are listing 10,000 know coronavirus cases a single day. And schools are undervalued and underfunded, are they truly going to be safe when most teachers are forced to provide their own supplies for their students? And what happens if staff get sick from coronavirus, what happens to the school at that point?

It's interesting to hear the case for chronic damage/side effects, yet still claim "no one disagrees with kids needing to go back to school." You just made the case that it won't be safe until transmission is gone. So which is it? I'm genuinely curious if you've thought through your case for safety. There's always risk, and I won't presume you meant until the last sick person recovers.
Great armies come from happy zealots, and happy zealots come from California!
TL+ Member
Simberto
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Germany11943 Posts
July 17 2020 06:37 GMT
#4099
I think opening up is best viewed as you investing R numbers into getting other stuff. If you have a low enough case count, and R is below 1, you can open up some things until R is barely below 1. Maybe opening restaurants with safety precautions increases R by 0.02, opening schools raises it by 0.03 (Numbers are an example and come out of my arse because i don't think we actually have reliable measures as to which opening increase spread by how much).

So we should prioritize which things to open up in which order to try to optimize our opening. I think schools should indeed be very far at the top of the list. If R is above 1, you need to close stuff down again.

The main problem here is that the US don't really have R-numbers to spare to invest. So their goal should be to do what we did months ago, and just lock down hard (mostly in the states which are hit the most hard), and possibly shut down state borders. You shouldn't be talking about opening stuff right now. You may shift stuff around by locking down a bunch of other things, and opening schools up in some way again.

Somehow the US skipped the "getting the disease down" part before lockdown.
StalkerTL
Profile Joined May 2020
212 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-07-17 08:53:18
July 17 2020 07:59 GMT
#4100
On July 17 2020 13:39 Danglars wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 17 2020 12:30 JimmiC wrote:
On July 17 2020 12:26 Danglars wrote:
On July 17 2020 12:05 JimmiC wrote:
What helps reduce the amount dying best is not getting your entire population infected.

So I’m guessing you are against all the states reintroducing or introducing new measure, and support the Georgia governor suing the mayor of Atlanta.

When in doubt, say the other guy supports lawsuits against masks! Pandemics bring out the worst in people.

On July 17 2020 12:11 StalkerTL wrote:
Am I the only person who doesn’t care about the death rate considering this is a coronavirus with very well documented side effects even after the patient has “recovered” from the worst of it? It’s the exact same sort of symptoms as things like swine flu, only those kill a whole lot more (which is probably a good thing to limit spread) and don’t spread like this specific strain.

We’re talking about organ damage, still loss of smell and/taste weeks after the initial symptoms, chronic fatigue in even very young and healthy individuals.

The goal should to limit the risk of people getting these side effects of coronavirus, not point to a still incredibly high death rate that isn’t spiking despite the high positive rates as a sign that it’s totally safe to expose the entire population to the virus by reopening the economy completely and sending kids straight back to school.

I mean the side effects of keeping young children out of school for ages and the future of not spotting abuse, malnutrition, and the rest are a valid conversation. There's a reason the American Association of Pediatrics has pushed for schools to reopen, and it isn't because doctors suddenly came out in favor of dead or chronically ill kids.

Epidemiologists and public health officers have consistently pointed to measures designed to counter hospital overruns and mass spreading events. Kids are the group at least risk, almost vanishingly small, as well as their capacity to spread it. And I didn't see anybody arguing for "reopening the economy completely."

Please do not make this political it is not the place.

You seem to be arguing me, and if it not the numbers you disagree, it was a safe presumption that it was the measures.

So let me know what you think should be the measures in these highly infected states? And what measures should not be allowed?

Oh and so you are up to date the pediatrics doctors pulled their recommendation to have schools open while cases are spiking like they are.

You lost the right to not make this political the same second you guessed I supported the GA governor. Try not to make such spurious allegations next time.

It's the behavior that must back up the words.
Show nested quote +
On July 17 2020 12:36 StalkerTL wrote:
The AAP’s recommendations are for kids to go back to school, only if it is safe to do so and appropriate measures are provided.

“Returning to school is important for the healthy development and well-being of children, but we must pursue re-opening in a way that is safe for all students, teachers and staff. Science should drive decision-making on safely reopening schools. Public health agencies must make recommendations based on evidence, not politics. We should leave it to health experts to tell us when the time is best to open up school buildings, and listen to educators and administrators to shape how we do it.

“Local school leaders, public health experts, educators and parents must be at the center of decisions about how and when to reopen schools, taking into account the spread of COVID-19 in their communities and the capacities of school districts to adapt safety protocols to make in-person learning safe and feasible. For instance, schools in areas with high levels of COVID-19 community spread should not be compelled to reopen against the judgment of local experts. A one-size-fits-all approach is not appropriate for return to school decisions.


No one disagrees with kids needing to go back to school. The problem is that a lot of states like Florida, Texas and Georgia are not taking a science based approach and making the handling of coronavirus entirely a political thing. Does anyone honesty believe Brian Kemp is making decisions based on expert opinion?

The problem is that politicians are not controlling coronavirus and are pressuring schools to reopen no matter what. Which is against the AAP recommendations.

Edit: As for caring about kid’s wellbeing, that was to be done at the start of the pandemic and not now. And what about the wellbeing of staff, many of whom are at risk of coronavirus? If there were only a handful of cases, then sure we can implement PPE, social distancing and in-class rotations. But numerous states in America are listing 10,000 know coronavirus cases a single day. And schools are undervalued and underfunded, are they truly going to be safe when most teachers are forced to provide their own supplies for their students? And what happens if staff get sick from coronavirus, what happens to the school at that point?

It's interesting to hear the case for chronic damage/side effects, yet still claim "no one disagrees with kids needing to go back to school." You just made the case that it won't be safe until transmission is gone. So which is it? I'm genuinely curious if you've thought through your case for safety. There's always risk, and I won't presume you meant until the last sick person recovers.


No one disagrees that kids need to go to school. The problem is that they can’t go to school because there’s a plague that is not under control. These two things are not mutually exclusive. You can agree that kids need in-class schooling but also understand that it’s not safe for them and staff to go back to in-class schooling because the federal and state governments have shown they cannot govern.

By the way, this is basically the AAP’s own recommendations that you brought up. Schooling is important for children but opening up schools is on a case by case basis because not only do children need to be safe, faculty staff who are often at risk need to be safe as well. It is not safe in most places in America.

If we look at the current outbreak in Australia, they’re getting around 300 cases per day in Victoria. All other states have immediately locked their borders and Victoria has implemented restrictions. Now if we look at Florida, have they even done half the restrictions Australia has to control the spread?

It is safe to go back to school if you are in Japan or South Korea where the spread is incredibly low and people follow coronavirus management rules instead of moaning how they can’t breathe. It is relatively safe to go back to school in some European nations where the rate of spread is under control, relatively easy to track and appropriate measures can actually work because they don’t have 10% positive rates. For all extents and purposes, the risk of transmission is incredibly low. This is not the case in the USA.

It’s not hard to understand. You don’t need to eradicate the virus, you need to manage it. A lot of countries have done this, we have not. Can you say Florida is managing the virus well when it has more cases per day than pretty much the European Union and East Asia put together?

Like with Wengadi’s “lockdowns do nothing, look at South Dakota”, I don’t know why some of you guys are so obsessed with throwing gotchas.

Like with your response to me bringing up Brian Kemp. I did not bring him up with the assumption that you supported him and me trying to trap you with a gotcha. I brought him up as a clear example of a person who is making the coronavirus fight not science-based but entirely political. What he is doing is going against AAP’s own recommendations because there is no reasonable person out there that believes he consulted any expert on how to handle the coronavirus situation in Georgia. Brian Kemp isn’t alone here but he’s the most blatant example of our politicians doing everything to make coronavirus a partisan matter when it absolutely is not.

On July 17 2020 15:37 Simberto wrote:
I think opening up is best viewed as you investing R numbers into getting other stuff. If you have a low enough case count, and R is below 1, you can open up some things until R is barely below 1. Maybe opening restaurants with safety precautions increases R by 0.02, opening schools raises it by 0.03 (Numbers are an example and come out of my arse because i don't think we actually have reliable measures as to which opening increase spread by how much).

So we should prioritize which things to open up in which order to try to optimize our opening. I think schools should indeed be very far at the top of the list. If R is above 1, you need to close stuff down again.

The main problem here is that the US don't really have R-numbers to spare to invest. So their goal should be to do what we did months ago, and just lock down hard (mostly in the states which are hit the most hard), and possibly shut down state borders. You shouldn't be talking about opening stuff right now. You may shift stuff around by locking down a bunch of other things, and opening schools up in some way again.

Somehow the US skipped the "getting the disease down" part before lockdown.


A lot of states and counties rushed reopening to rescue their local economies. Every single one of those places are getting slammed hard with the virus. The UBI splash was all for nothing because states didn’t use that time to lock things down and implement a culture required to open up and operate safely.

The bigger problem with us is that refuse to admit we did a mistake. To actually control the virus would require our politicians and their supporters to admit their ideas regarding coronavirus were wrong, they had the wrong strategy and they are going to adopt better strategies going forward.

But we’re doing everything possible to refuse to admit making a mistake and point to things like “oh the virus isn’t that bad, deaths are trending down despite cases increasing”, “it doesn’t spread outdoors, we need to open up theme parks to rescue the local economy”, “we can’t let the cure be worse than the problem”. Well, the cure is only going to be worse than the problem because apparently the South and California thought New York is in China and didn’t do anything to prepare for their own outbreaks. Making a situation so bad that you have to bite the bullet isn’t something to be proud of.

That’s the difference between somewhere like Italy and us. They admitted they fucked up and buckled down to control the spread as a nation. We’re basically that guy who gets the group lost but refuses to ask for directions because it would mean admitting that it was his fault that the group got lost in the first place.
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